Time to review my pre-season top 50 Giants prospects and how they fared this season. Remember, this is a REVIEW of the 2013 list. The 2014 list will be coming out after the Winter Meetings.
1. Gary Brown, OF, AAA: .231/.286/.375, 13 HR, 17 SB, 11 CS, 33 BB, 135 K in 558 AB. Extremely disappointing season to say the least. Reportedly made an adjustment in his stance and swing around midseason which resulted in a flurry of HR's but then he went back into a brutal slump to end the season. Perhaps just a coincidence, but seems to go into a tailspin whenever an OF teammate gets a promotion. Although I probably ranked him too high here, I believe this is more than a flawed prospect finally reaching his ceiling. No inside info, but I am inclined to believe something is going on below the surface such as a nagging injury or off field issues that has caused a regression. Stock is way down!
2. Joe Panik, 2B, AA: .257/.333/.347, 4 HR, 10 SB, 58 BB, 68 K in 522 AB. Moved to 2B as his primary position which drops his value right off the bat, although the move was long expected. On the surface, the numbers are disappointing, but the EL is a tough environment for hitters and he maintained the sweet K/BB. Stock down slightly.
3. Kyle Crick, RHP, High A: 3-1, 1.57, 68.2 IP, 39 BB, 95 K, GO/AO= 0.96. Missed 6 weeks early in season with an oblique strain. Was otherwise dominant while being young for the level. Still walks too many, but had some games with 0 BB's which is very encouraging. Will get more innings in the Arizona Fall League. Stock up!
4. Chris Stratton, RHP, Low A: 9-3, 3.27, 132 IP, 47 BB, 123 K, GO/AO= 1.13. Disappointing placement for a first round draft choice out of a major D1 college program. Performance was just OK. The Augusta Chronicle beat writer for the Greenjackets was impressed by his stuff. Will have to step it up next year, though. Stock down a bit.
5. Clayton Blackburn, RHP, High A: 7-5, 3.65, 133 IP, 35 BB, 138 K, GO/AO= 1.34. FB not as electric as Kyle Crick's. It was 90-93 on the stadium gun in the game I attended in Rancho Cucamonga. Maintains excellent K/BB with a GB tendency in High A ball. Can get hittable at times, possibly due to too good control? Stock is stable to slighly up.
6. Adalberto Mejia, LHP, High A: 7-4, 3.31, 87 IP, 23 BB, 89 K, GO/AO= 0.76. Strong performance in High A, which he was young for. Got called up for 1 emergency start for AAA Fresno and allowed 2 runs in 5 IP. FB is in the low 90's. Size suggests he may have another MPH or two in there. Stock stable to slightly up.
7. Martin Agosta, RHP, Low A: 9-3, 2.06, 91.2 IP, 43 BB, 109 K, GO/AO= 0.64. Another low placement for a college draft pick. Started off strong with a FB up to 96 MPH. Suffered a blister and arm fatigue. Augusta beat writer reports a worrisome loss of velocity after the DL stint that did not come back in season. Stock down a bit. Will have to prove he is healthy next season.
8. Gustavo Cabrera, OF, DSL: .247/.379/.360, 2 HR, 21 SB, 30 BB, 54 K in 186 AB. Dominican Bonus Baby started slow but really turned it on in the 2'nd half posting a line of .314/.417/.500 after the All-Star Break(26 games). Elite 5 tool athlete. His second half numbers suggest he has the ability to put skills with those tools and become an elite prospect. Stock way up!!
9. Heath Hembree, RHP, AAA: 1-4, 4.07, 55.1 IP, 16 BB, 63 K's, 31 Saves. Struggled in May and June, but came back strong in July and August. Did not allow a run in 7.2 IP in a Sept MLB stint. Impressive stuff that can get MLB hitters out. A 25 man active roster spot is his to lose next spring. Stock is way up!
10. Mike Kickham, LHP, AAA/MLB: 7-7, 4.31, 110.2 IP, 49 BB, 90 K's, GO/AO= 1.64. MLB: 0-3, 10.16, 28.1 IP, 10 BB, 29 K, GO/AO= 1.46. Rushed to the majors midseason because the Giants ran out of SP options. Impressive stuff at times. Other times looked lost and overmatched. MLB peripherals look good. Probably just needs a bit more time in AAA to polish up his game. Stock stable.
I will do these in groups of 10 for easier reading and to spread it out a bit. Next up will be #11-20.
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I was interested in your comments on Gary Brown. At some point in July or August, the same thought occurred to me - this can't be just his refusal to make adjustments. There must be something else going on that we don't know about. He's too talented, and too close to the majors, to not be open to any suggestions that might help him achieve his potential.
ReplyDeleteWhat that thing is, I have no idea. But it does give me some hope that, once that situation is resolved, he could easily jump back up into elite prospect status.
It is awfully late in the game for Brown to be making such drastic changes in his stance/swing. I can understand his reluctance. There is always the risk that the new way is just not right for him. Of course, if that proves to be true, he can always go back to the way he's always done it, which wasn't working too well either. I think there is something more here than just him not accepting coaching or being in the wrong stance at the plate. It seems like it must be something either physical or in the mental/psycho/social sphere of his life. Again, this is pure speculation on my part. I know nothing of the situation.
DeleteI really think Brown can bounce back. Panik too, although he hasn't exactly plummeted like Brown. Brown seems like a chip on the shoulder guy. I still can't wait to see that arm. Maybe he can relax now that the spotlight is off. The Giants sure need him to figure it out.
ReplyDeleteIts pretty bad with Mr. Brown, the K% stands out as completely abnormal, although it could be as simple as trying to make these adjustments on the fly. There are some consolation points though - Brown had the 2nd most assists in full season minor leagues for OFs, and he has a top 20 put outs per game ratio. He does have elite speed, and he is a fine defensive CF. You can't steal 1B? Do tell...
ReplyDeleteAccording to BA with their top 20 in the sally (no gigantes this year) Stratton was a pretty big miss, they mentioned velocity as a key. Agosta actually got top 20 consideration over Stratton. Not finishing strong was sort of a bummer, these blister issues that he and Gregorio got kind of put a damper on a pretty good season for both.
I've long ago kinda dismissed BA.....They tend to stay with previous evaluations way too long and not very open to surpises or turnarounds (like Kendry Flores and even Galindo)...They hate being wrong, which they often are..
DeleteSteveVA
Interesting take. I can see that some. BA does talk to the industry a ton though, so they are giving you a pulse of what people are saying. Of course, the Giants have historically been very reluctant to give them access, and they do show that grudge from time to time.
DeleteBA top 20 for CA league is out. Entire rotation makes the cut. Entire rotation. Love that. Crick, Escobar, Mejia, Blach, Blackburn in that order. And Mac Williamson to boot!
Shank - Both Meijia and Blach over Blackburn?..I find that interesting...Clayton must have slipped a bit in their eyes...I know Sickels has crick around #50 and Balckburn around #70? with Escobar as an Honorable Mention...Anyway, don't know if I buy BA....I'm bullish on Blackburn! I'll see next year when all or 4 of the 5 should be in Richmond and I can watch up close!!
DeleteSteveVA
I'm right with you. I'd go Crick-Blackburn-Escobar-Mejia-Blach meself. Should be crazy fun to watch that rotation - when have we last had some hype in Richmond? Plus Mac Williamson to boot, and if you're lucky Matt Duffy.
DeleteI believe that all else being equal, LHP's get ranked higher than RHP's because of their relative scarcity.
DeleteDid anyone catch the Augusta beat writers bit on Stratton at the end of the year? Cliff notes version:
Delete-Said they forced him to work inside, even when it just wasn't there for him. Org knew he could kill on the outside of the plate, but that he would need to own the inner half to be a good MLB starter.
-Velocity touched as high as 95 during the season. The predominate low 90s readings towards the end of the season were due to heavy use of a two seam fastball. Going to assume the org made him do that as well. No one would choose to use something other than one of their two plus pitches.
-They made him use his change up more.
-Slider is a true plus pitch
What I took away from the whole thing was that if he were allowed to just do what he wanted and blow 4 seam FB by and get the K with the slider, that his numbers would have been better. They put him in low A to work on all that stuff so he could do it in an environment that wouldn't result in him getting shelled on the nights he couldn't bring all the changes together.
I think too many people thought that because he was from college that he would have been fast tracked to the majors. In reality, he was coming off his only season in college where he preformed well, let alone his fist starting at that level. What we got was more of a mid-high ceiling prep arm, just older. I think the org knew he needed a lot of work and that fans had super unreal expectations.
That was a lot, but I totally see him leap frogging SJ and slotting right in Richmond with the rest of our top arms. And won't be surprised in the least bit if he comes out firing a 90-95 FB with a killer slider and much improved change up. I go to UF and saw him pitch against Florida in 2012, he was nasty, and that was a good CWS Gator team.
Anon - great writeup and analysis.
DeleteYes I did read what the beat writer wrote about Stratton. If you go back and read my comment on Stratton, you will see that I mentioned it. I get that he may have been working on some things this year. Assuming that is the case, I still would like to have seen more progress from the beginning of the season to the end than we saw. Having not seen him myself, I have to go by a combination of stats and what I read in available sources. I tend to believe that the truth is somewhere between the Augusta beat writer's take, which I find to be somewhat rose-colored and BA's take which may not be based on complete information from within the organization.
DeleteI do know that the Giants have been known to ask their prospects to work on specific things and that sometimes those prospects get frustrated. There is the semi-famous story of when Madison Bumgarner was asked by his pitching coach at Augusta to throw more changeups. He went out one inning and threw 18 consecutive changeups and struck out the side. When he got back to the dugout, he asked the coach if he had thrown enough changeups! LOL!!!
Anyway, hope you are right about Stratton going to Richmond and dominating. If he does, his stock will go back up, but we need to see him do it.
We have to appreciate the Giants managing their prospects like that - working on specific things, instead of temporarily impressing the media.
DeleteIn that case, it is important we see some progress in the things he worked on.
So the question is, did he show progress?
Oh, and look at Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn throw up goose eggs. I know, I know, its the ultimate small sample size. But here's the thing with high OBP low BA guys - they aren't the best hitters. In the playoffs, the pitching will ramp up, it'll be more top shelf, and you will struggle to get hits. I don't care what Nick Swisher's WAR scores are, I don't want him on my team in crunch time. And here's a big divide between scouts or old school baseball fans (I include myself there for the most part) versus sabers... The Giants do build their roster with one eye towards the post season, and they've taken painful lessons in the past 20 years as well. I'd say that has a lot to do with how they draft, they've taken hard beats on that level as well.
ReplyDeleteFrom my vantage point, Michael Bourn is a liability out there. And K's can be a very bad thing at times. Both Swisher and Bourn are easy 100K plus guys every year. Says something for the Giants and their contact oriented approach. But don't let that get in the way of an easy sneer. I predicted every single one of Swish's weak grounders last night before they happened.
Also, with that crazy shift going, wouldn't it be tempting to lay down a chop bunt? Hats off to the Rays, they executed much better than the Indians, who definitely had their chances.
Would you put Adam Dunn in there with Swisher and Bourn? Or is in a separate category? I think his power puts him in different class.
DeleteNever made the playoffs! Adam Dunn: not good enough to make the playoffs.
DeleteSemi-serious take: I think Dunn is a great player if he's hitting sixth in your lineup making the minimum. Paying him 12MM-15MM to be the cleanup hitter? not so much. Dunn has a -27.7 dWAR over his career (B/R). That also doesn't play so well in the playoffs. Which Dunn never has. (I jest, I jest...)
Harold Reynolds, who gets a ton of abuse from saber fans, had an interesting take on how to beat the defensive shifts that are popular right now: run on them. Get the defense moving, disturb the positioning.
DeleteThat requires players who are adapt in all aspects of the game: run field throw is more valuable than a WAR glance will tell you. Hunter Pence: good signing.
I remember when Willie Mac was hitting cleanup for the Giants. Opposing teams used to shift like crazy on him. One day, I was listening to a game and Willie Mac had finally had enough. He poked one down the 3B line and it rolled down into the corner. Somehow the LF, booted it around in the corner a couple of times and 'Ol Willie Mac and his creaky knees motored all the way around to score on the play. I don't remember if it was scored a HR or a double and a 2-base error, but I LOVED hearing the call on the radio! I understand that the Giants were not paying Willie Mac to poke the ball down the 3B line. On the other hand, a double if nothing to sneeze at and if he did that often enough, it would eventually force opposing teams to keep the 3B closer to the bag which would also pull the other IF more to the left side.
DeleteWhen I lived in the Boston area I used to ask the same question with Ted Williams: why didn't he rap the ball into LF, as he easily could have done on the diet of outside pitches he got, until the opposing teams gave up the shift? Williams didn't even do it with the game at stake. You're right that that isn't what teams pay a Williams or a Willie to do, but I think there's even more to it, that fans want to see the big guy take on the shifty guys on their own terms and still come out ahead. Everyone, certainly including the star hitter, treats the duel as trumping the game, as though the shift constituted a sort of double dare, so that one would be craven to circumvent it rather than to accept its terms and triumph anyhow. Williams or McCovey could do what you describe now and then, as a triumph of outwitting, but not very often, certainly not systematically.
DeleteBefore my time, but the stories of Mickey Mantle putting down a bunt and running like a deer...
DeleteGreat stories about HoFers beating the shift. And I am a big Harold Reynolds fan. Great info from you all on the Giants' future stars. I can't wait until next year to see the Rainiers host Fresno.
ReplyDeleteNWGiantsFan
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