I guess it's no secret that all things being equal, I would really like to see the Giants draft a high ceiling SS in the first round of the 2013 draft. The problem is that high ceiling SS's are in great demand on draft day and likely to be long gone by the time the Giants draft at #26. Oscar Mercado and JP Crawford are the most frequently mentioned true SS's in the early pre-draft analyses and most early mock drafts have them off the board long before the Giants draft. Needless to say, whenever I see a mock draft or draft prospect ranking, one of the first things I do is look down the list to see if there are any shortstops listed at or below #26 who might be what I want the Giants to take. John Sickels put out a top 50 draft prospect ranking a couple of days ago. Jan Hernandez is a name at #35 I had seen before but hadn't paid much attention to. He is out of the Carlos Beltran Academy in Puerto Rico. The Giants have been active in the Puerto Rican market recently, so there might be a fit here.
Matt Garrioch at Minor League Ball posted a draft profile on Hernandez on 1/13/2013: DOB: 1/3/1995(he will be 18.5 yo on draft day). 6'3", 195 lbs. He is big for a shortstop and may need to move to 3B in the future, but can play the position as of now. He has a nice powerful swing and projects as a power hitter in the future. His bat should play even if he does have to move off SS. Garrioch posted a video. Gotta love what you see there. Maybe a little herky jerkiness to the swing, but that should be fixable. Dare I say if you squint your eyes, you can see just a bit of a young ARod in that video? Come on, John Barr. If he's there on draft day, do it!
BTW, Big League Futures does not list Hernandez in their top 50 draft prospects nor does BA. BA lists Crawford at #9 and Mercado at #19. Hernandez is BA's #34 HS draft prospect while Crawford is #5, Mercado #11 and Andy McGuire #24.
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Another SS to look at is Drew Ward out of the Oklahoma prep ranks. Big boy, coming out early, I am not completely sure it's official yet. Apparently the bat might play all over. Definitely another guy to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeleteI saw a writeup on him at BLF. It listed him as 2014, so I figured he was for next year, but yeah, love the bat. He sure doesn't look like a shortstop though.
DeleteWouldn't that just create a logjam like we had with catchers? Is the idea to create trade bait?
ReplyDeleteWould seem Brandon Crawford will be even more solid in 3-4 years.
Why spend a 1st round for a shortstop that would get stuck in Fresno, at best?
You never, ever should let personnel at the MLB level dictated who you draft. Yes, Crawford looks good at SS for now, but will he in 3-4 years? Who knows? Remember when the Dodgers looked set at catcher and 1B for a decade with Russell Martin and James Lonely? What about the D'Backs and Stephen Drew at SS? 3-4 years in baseball is a lifetime!
DeleteIf you look throughout the organization, the thinnest position, by far, is shortstop. You try to draft the best player available, especially in the first round, but if there are several choices who grade out approximately equal, you do want to take organizational depth into consideration.
There is always room for improvement. As good as Crawford is and as much as I like him, if you had the opportunity to replace him with a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, wouldn't you do it?
A HS SS would have a 3-4 year development path, making an ideal spacing, just as Crawford is getting expensive, assuming he will stay healthy, etc. There is a fine line between creating logjams and having viable options. Personally I think any time you have a shot at an impact SS you grab him, especially if they are athletic enough to project all over the field.
DeleteShankbone,
DeleteGo check out Klima's Looong writeup on Ryon Healy. Looks like a very nice 3'rd round target.
That is a passion piece for sure. I knew he liked Healy from past articles, but wow, throwing down George G and pushing his chips in... The Giants pick at 26, 63 and 101 but something will move once Scott Boras earns his keep. If the Gints agree with Klima and think he might play at 3rd, I could see the 2nd round happening. Hardest thing to get is raw power. Great article.
DeleteLogjams happen when the prospects are arriving to the majors at roughly the same time, and they are roughly the same. Otherwise, it is pretty clear you go with the better player.
DeleteThe good thing about MI prospects, particularly SS, is that they often can play many other positions because the position requires athleticism that can play at other positions, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B. So if he hits well enough, he can be moved, and if he isn't, again, you go with the better player.
It is as DrB notes, you pick BPA generally, but if you feel that there are a number of similarly skilled players, you can go with an area of need. The Giants, once Barr joined us, has been good about stockpiling a lot of talented players up the middle: C, SS, 2B, CF. It is not just SS we had a lot of, there has also been a lot of good catchers as well.
Those are the hardest positions to fill, generally, while the others often can be filled via free agency. When you are dealing with lottery tickets that draft picks are, it behooves you to stock up at those positions by consistently picking up a number of prospects in those areas. That is, right after pitching, which is the Giants area of competitive advantage.
Hernandez and Healy both sound like good prospects.
Great article on Ryon Healy. The Ducks open the season against Hawaii for the 3rd straight year. He's a good hitter batting cleanup for Oregon, but hasn't shown the power potential yet. I have confidence that if scouting director John Barr makes a high school player like Jan Hernandez their 1st round pick, he'll become a good player. His track record of 1st round picks looks good so far with Posey a franchise player, Zack Wheeler a top pitching prospect drafted out of high school, + the org still appears to high on G Brown + J Panik. It also appears that Tommy Joseph a 2nd round pick out of high school was a good pick since he was traded for Pence.. The Giants have done a good job staying away from 1st round busts thus far under John Barr
DeleteLG
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LG - I agree with the sentiment of trusting Barr in the draft. The results so far have been spectacular. The expectations after Posey, a bona fide blue chipper, are a little out of wack. Still, hector and the Brandon's all have less than 2k professional PA's and they are not only in the show they have the hardware. How you like them apples? A lot says I!
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