Derek Law, RHP. DOB: 9/14/1990. 6'3", 218 lbs. B-R, T-R.
Low A: 5-2, 2.91, 55.2 IP, 23 BB, 67 K, GO/AO= 1.13, BAA= .216, 2 Saves.
Law was drafted out of JC ball in the 9'th round 2011. BA's pre-draft scouting report had him with a FB in the 89-93 range with a power downer curve with a comment that he "scares off talent evaluators with his rough arm action and hard delivery." He appeared for 18 IP in Arizona ball in 2011 with 4 Saves and 19 K's against just 2 BB's. He had a solid season for Augusta in 2012. Even in July, when his ERA ballooned up to 5.11, he had 18 K's against just 4 BB's in 12.1 IP. I expect to see him pitching out of the bullpen in San Jose in 2013.
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Wow, it is just like you've been saying, DrB, there are interesting prospects up and down the list. Reading this and see how well he did, I would not have thought that he was #49. Great K/9, great K/BB, and he was average age for the league, maybe a little young, so that is good too. Love all these guys with great K/BB along with great K/9.
ReplyDeleteI think I like some of your honorable mentions more than the last 5-6 guys rounding out the top 50. Law has a nice pitchers frame though.
ReplyDeleteOne thing about that 2011 draft, I think it built up expectations of lots of overslot deals. The Giants actually went overslot a ton: Susac with 1.1MM at 86, Osich with 450K at 207, Ray Black with 225K at 237, Blackburn and Otero in the teens, Biagini in the 26th and Relaford in the 44th.
Maybe that built some expectations for the 2012 draft. I know I wanted some Blackburn-esque action, that was my point, a couple flyers for a bit more moneys. But thats the way it rolled under the new CBA, sending the money instead to the IFA market, before that spending power trends down.
BA released an estimate of the 2013 caps (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2013/2614647.html apologies if already posted) and the Giants have the 4th worst pool in baseball ($4,646,475). That has to be hammered into people's expectations. When you are successful your draft position suffers. Further, the new CBA pools really limit what you can do. And the IFA market as well. The Giants are looking at 33% decrease in spending power, unless they try the new trade cap space stunt, but then they're going to be giving up something of value to secure that. I doubt they go anywhere near trading cap space for the first 2-3 years until things shake out.
So in conclusion, 2011 draft should be looked at as the Giants taking a last gasp at some old fashioned overslot manipulations while they could before the new CBA took effect. Was it for huge bonus baby moneys? Nope, it was a little more subtle, like grabbing Joe Panik and getting him signed within a week for slot or just under.
Any idea whether the Giants "fixed" his "rough arm action and hard delivery", or is he still a potential injury waiting to happen, more so than the usual TINSTAAPP?
ReplyDeleteNo idea. Hopefully, I will get a chance to scout him a little myself this year when San Jose GIants come to SoCal.
DeleteAnother 2013 draft list: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/7/3956524/2013-mlb-draft-top-50-draft-prospects-february
ReplyDeleteForgot exactly where we pick but 26th is Rowdy Tellez, 1B HS.
Thanks for link. that's a ranking list not a mock. We do currently pick at 26 with 2 Boras agents sweatin' bullets right now. I bet MLB tells the Mets to pound sand if they do sign Bourn, they'll lost the pick. One goal of the CBA definitely seems to be the de-valuing of FAs. I'd point out that the marquee talent gets locked most the time, so these are the more questionable guys reaching FA. I can see this as quite deliberate by ownership, not wanting to spend top dollar for the chaff. (There are exceptions, but I'd point out each FA class the past 5 years gets weaker and weaker).
DeleteAnyways, no way our Greybeards go anywhere near Rowdy, a 1B only HS guy. I think Sickels is wildly off on Justin Williams at 29, that guy will go low teens at the latest because he's got bat speed to kill a man! Phil Ervin gets an early nod at the 20 spot. I'm reluctantly coming to the conclusion he will be gone baby gone by our pick. Assuming a good year at school. But then again, lets not forget Victor Roache who was a top ten guy before his injury...
Yes, sorry, thanks for clarifying that it is a ranking not a mock. So this is not a guess at who the Giants pick, but rather a list ranked by perceived current talent/potential. So if everyone selected by this ranking, then the Giants would end with Rowdy.
DeleteAnd yes, the Giants probably don't go near Tellez, that's not their M.O. with the first round. One key in relating ranking to the draft is that often prospects considered high in talent falls for some reason, so though we pick 26th, anywhere from 16 to 36 is probably the realistic universe of players the Giants might pick, with the caveat that the Giants don't always go by what people rank as the best, as they often draft ahead of where players are ranked (except for the first round, though Cain, Brown, and Panik were viewed more supplementary first round picks than first round picks).
Yes, the MLB will probably not grant the Mets the ability to keep their pick. This may not have been exactly the intent of the rules, ultimately, but that is the way it was written and given that they took out the section that would have saved the Mets pick, could be inferred to be an intention of the new CBA.
Mets might have had more chance of getting this done had they complained immediately after the season, when it was clear that the Pirates extra pick would push them into the penalty zone. No way MLB rule in their favor now as it would appear to favor them in particular in reference to signing Bourn.
If I were a Mets fan, I would rather they not bother with Bourn, just take their lumps (and losses), let the fans enjoy Wright and a few other stars, and get a good draft pick for 2014. And hopefully nail the 11th pick this year. Bourn will mot push them into contention. The Nats and Braves are just too good right now, and the Phillies if healthy and producing will be dangerous too. The Mets can expect one and maybe two of them to falter in some way (you never know when an idiot will injure your best player...), that's just how baseball rolls, but to expect all three to falter? Plus, on top of that, they would need to improve greatly too, at 74-88, they were not that good to begin with. Plus they got Harvey then Wheeler becoming fixtures (or the guys they picked up in the Dickey trade) in the rotation sooner than later, 2014-15 is a better target to push to win than now, by getting Bourn.
Now, if they don't anticipate finding a leadoff guy by that time period (don't know their prospects), it'll be better to get Bourn now than later. But Bourn has generally hit much better at home than on the road, and mostly have played at hitter friendly parks, so he's hard to judge. If he's as bad for the Mets as he was on the road for this career - .266/.331/.357/.688 - then he's going to be way overpaid (and the Mets homepark has been more a pitcher's park). But has hit generally around career norms in Citi Field - .277/.367/.362/.729 - so perhaps he could carry over his good home hitting to the Mets. And that is what the Mets are betting on if they sign him.
looks like Angel V. got his visa and will be in camp. Lets hope he can develop further.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/02/angel-villalona-gets-visa-will-be-in-giants-big-league-camp/
Thanks for the news!
DeleteAlright, I guess Baggs whiffed on that one! (That's OK, when you hit as well as he does!)
This makes more sense to me, the state department can only put up so many legalese road blocks when Angel was not convicted of anything.
Wow. That should be interesting. I'll be sure to get a look at the big boy.
DeleteTough road to row but he is still young. Showed some sand to keep fighting the visa issue as well as suing the Gints in DR court.
That is good news. Now we'll get to see if he has anything left. Maybe the whole experience taught him a few lessons in life and how fortunate he is to have this opportunity.
DeleteMaybe he starts his comeback with San Jose and I will get to see him this year.
DeleteFor me as a Giant fan and a believer in innocent-until-proven-guilty, this is excellent news. For me as an old man with borderline high blood pressure, maybe not so excellent, since every time I read someone's huffing or scoffing because the Giants are putting a murderer on the team, I feel I probably ought to gulp another diuretic pill, to keep below the danger zone. No one, as far as I've read, has come up with any evidence that Villalona shot a guy in a bar rather than that Villalona is a fabulously rich--by his local standards--boy who was ripe for a shakedown. But plenty of fans (and maybe even Schulman in his recent comment on this news) seem happy to harden an accusation into a supposed fact that ought to ruin a young man's career. The ordeal may have ruined it already; or perhaps, as DrB hopes, he will turn it into a source of maturing strength. Whichever happens, I will be proud of my team for setting aside what's unproven, which also may well be venal and/or malicious, in favor of letting 22-year-old Villalona prove himself (or not) on a baseball field, and the public arena that being a pro athlete brings with it.
ReplyDeleteI agree that this whole story reeks of a shakedown.
DeleteI keep Juan Uribe in mind when thinking about this issue. It's the Wild West down there. That story will stick to him for a long time, but he has a chance to make it a sidebar, like Uribe did.
DeleteThere is a documentary called "Pelotero" (Ballplayer) about a couple of Dominican prospects and their route into the majors. One of them is Miguel Sano of the Twins.
DeleteBut it is corrupt down there. The other prospect did get caught lying about his age. Sano also got caught up in age accusations as well that probably knocked $1.5 million from his signing bonus.
The real chilling part of that is it appears that the accusations against Sano originated (unfounded apparently) from the Pittsburgh Pirate scout who was trying to chase other teams away, so that he could sign Sano at a bargain price for the Pirates. MLB's Dominican office was involved. Looked like collusion. Just crazy.
Rule of law barely applies in DR.
Anyway, if you have Netflix, you can stream "Pelotero."
It's worth a look.
Thanks for the tip Kelly. The murder charge is tough. I would call it manslaughter, it was a bar fight and a gun came out. There might be some bad blood between families or something, but this just doesn't seem like a premeditated act. 18 year olds, alcohol and everybody packing? Sounds like a ready made disaster to me. The only surprise is that shootings don't happen more frequently.
DeleteDo you think he would have been on the World Series team last year had this not happened?
DeleteWell, he was in San Jose in 2009 and had an off year, so assuming he repeated SJ in 2010, did OK, then moved to AA in 2011, then AAA in 2012.
DeleteSo no, it does not look like he would have made the team last year. The only way that happens is if he out-Belted Belt in 2010 and rose similarly to get a chance in 2011. It would have been hard to outdo Belt, though, as Angel strikes out a lot and Belt did not. Making it harder is that both played the same position.
Of course, if Angel was still around, that could have changed some things. Belt could have been moved to LF if they thought Angel slotted better at 1B (and more importantly, couldn't play another position). Also, Angel talked about staying ready to play 3B eventually, taking practice there even while playing 1B in the minors (Giants wanted him to concentrate on his hitting more), so they could have moved him over there if he was able to play well enough there, given Sandoval's weight issues in 2010 and into 2011.
Still, I think that unless he had a breakout year like Belt did, either in 2010 or 2011, and forced his way on - and I don't think with his strikeout rate that he would be able to pull that off - he would not have been on the World Series team last year.
Now, had he been a LF, that could have made things interesting.
I pretty much agree with ogc here. I think it is highly unlikely that Angel V would have been a member of the MLB Giants in 2012 even if his career had not been interrupted.
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