Saturday, September 22, 2012

Game Wrap 9/21/2012: Giants 5 Padres 1

The Giants kept the pedal to the metal turning a tightly pitched game between Ryan Vogelsong and Padres rookie Casey Kelly early into an easy win in the middle innings.  Key Lines:

Angel Pagan- 2 for 5, 2B, 3B(15), SB(28).  BA= .294.  Pagan extended his SF Giants season record for Triples to 15.

Marco Scutaro- 1 for 3, 2 BB.  BA= .301.  The Giants first two batters were on base 5 out of PAs.

Pablo Sandoval- 3 for 3, BB, HR(12).  BA= .291.  Pablo hits his 4'th HR in 3 games.  He's been hot now for 8 games going 14 for 31 starting with the first game of the D'Backs series coming off the 2 day rest.  He has a 5 game hitting streak in which he is 11 for 19 with 4 HR's.  I'll just add that the difference between hot Pablo and cold Pablo has nothing to do with pitch selection.  As the TV people are gleefully saying, he's hitting everything from the nose to the toes!  Note to pitchers:  If you are thinking of trying to get him to chase a breaking ball at the back foot, yeah, he'll chase it alright, but you might want to rethink that strategy!

Buster Posey- 1 for 4.  BA= .335.  Buster very deservedly wins the Willie Mac Award.  Were it not for Buster's MVP caliber season coming off his horrific injury, you could make a case for Angel Pagan and his leadership post-Melk, and you might make a case for Barry Zito who came back to pitch a bunch of terrific games after staring at the possible end of his career last year and in Spring Training. You also might make a case for Marco Scutaro and the work he has done since coming to the Giants.   Buster is the clear winner this year, though.

Brandon Belt- 1 for 3, BB.  BA= .268.  Belt started the rally that led to the Giants first run.  One big difference between the current Giants and the beginning of the year Giants is they are getting consistent production from the bottom of the lineup.  Not as much as from the top of the lineup, but nobody is asking for that.  What they are getting is 1-2 extra runs per game from the 6, 7 and 8 batters which can be a huge difference maker.

Gregor Blanco- 1 for 4, Assist(Headley at home).  BA= .244.  Huge defensive play for Blanco hitting his relay man Crawford who nailed Headley at the plate.  Blanco made a couple of other nice running catches in LF.  When Blanco is in LF, the Giants have the OF covered like a blanket.  Hey, a run prevented is as good as a run scored!

Brandon Crawford- 2 for 4.  BA= .248.  See above discussion re. Brandon Belt and the bottom of the batting order.

Ryan Vogelsong- 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 3.58.  Vogey needed this game badly.  Having him back on track is big for the postseason even if he pitches out of the bullpen.

Sergio Romo- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 1.92.  Not a Save situation but Romo seems to have emerged as the likely postseason closer.  Hope Bochy doesn't forget to use Lopez or Mijares if Josh Hamilton comes up in the 9'th of game 7 with a couple of runners on base, or Bryce Harper or Brian McCann or Jason Heyward or Jay Bruce in the playoffs.

The Dodgers beat the Reds 3-1 in extra innings, so the Giants lead in the NL West remains at 10 games, but the Giants shaved another game off the Magic Number which is now down to 2.

The Dodgers take on Mat Latos today, and I will be a Mat Latos fan for one day.  I mean, if he's going to take it to the Giants, then he sure as heck better take it to the Dodgers too!  Anyway, if the Dodgers lose to Latos, the Giants will be in position to clinch the NL West title tonight with Madison Bumgarner taking the mound against Andrew Werner.

Go Giants!!

15 comments:

  1. Has anyone else noticed that Scutaro is now second in the NL in hits?

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    1. I guess I would be more interested in that if he was closer to 200. Seems like it's a lot tougher to get 200 hits than it was back in the day. More emphasis on drawing walks, better relief pitching, players taking more time off for injuries. 200 hits has become a relative rarity.

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    2. True. But 180+ hits is a nice season. Especiallly nice considering we did not give up much to get him.

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    3. Oh yeah, no matter how you cut it, Scooter has been great and probably the best traded for player of the offseason.

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  2. Good to see Voggie back in the saddle. Noticed that Bochy pulled him at a 94 pitch count after six. Usually Bochy would send him back out for the 7th with a 5-1 lead. Good on Bochy for easing off on Voggie and letting The Committee close it out.

    The Panda is muy muy caliente! One at the eyeballs this time.

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    1. Is it easing off, or is it like he was playing with the houses money with the good pitching up to then and he decided to cash in? Kind of like how for Zito, once Bochy changed modes, he started taking Zito out before things go squirrelly, heck he w doing that with Timmy too, wasn't he?

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    2. I think earlier in the year Bochy almost always let's the starter pitch deeper into games if he thinks the starter is still going strong. I think Voggie was still strong at 94 pitches with few high stress innings and a 5-1 lead. But Bochy pulled him - for the better I think.

      Pulling Timmy and Zeets before they implode (usually the third time thru the order and facing the opposing pitcher) is a GOOD thing with The Committee to back up the starters. Keeps pitch count down on the starters and let's them know you can't screw around or you get yanked. I really love Bochy's playoff manager mode for pitchers. Get it done or else.

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  3. The team is playing well now.

    Let's continue to stay focused and keep up the good work.

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  4. Lots of great points made, too many other than to say Graet Job!

    I especially enjoyed your discussion of possible other worthy candidates, I had not thought of them, but you made excellent points.

    Lastly, actually, based on the Pythagorean formula, a run saved is worth MORE than a run scored. That was a large component of my business plan for a baseball team, defense is actually more efficient for getting better faster, because the when you drop your teams runs allowed by 0.1 runs, to maintain a 90 win seasonal rate, the runs your team needs goes DOWN by 0.11, if I remember the math right. If you get the teams runs allowed down to league best status, then your team can be playoff contenders even with a league lousy offense.

    Or put another way, for every 0.1 runs extra you give up, your team needs to score 0.11 runs in order to maintain a 90 win seasonal rate. Meaning the worse your defense is, the better your offense has to be to br competitive.

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    1. Does this work for my bank account too? ;-)

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    2. That could well be, OGC. I know defense is still a vastly underrated factor in winning games, mostly because we still don't have great ways to measure it, but it's becoming more well known as more articles are written about it.

      There is a great piece on Fangraphs right now about the difference in defense between Andrelton Simmons and Tyler Pastornicky for the Atlanta Braves that is quite eye-opening.

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    3. Not could well be, but that is the math of the formula that sabers use to determine what the expected win/loss percentage is when a team scores X and allows Y runs. This is also a relationship that is not well understood in saber circles, from what I've seen. There is an inherent efficiency in preventing runs where if you have the choice between reducing your runs allowed by 0.1 vs. raising your runs scored by 0.1 (say, between two equivalent free agents), you should go with the reduce runs allowed by 0.1 every time. The same hold true for building teams as well, hence why I've been a supporter of the Giants pitching oriented rebuilding first, fielding defense second, and hitting third.

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  5. Did anyone see the Fanshot on MCC about Keith Law's thoughts on Belt's 2012 swing compared to Belt's 2010 swing? I know Law is just one scout, but I wonder if he is onto something. I think Belt has shown he can be a major league hitter. I just want to see him get back to showcasing the power he displayed from 2010-2011.

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    1. For me, it's first things first. The first thing Belt had to do at the MLB level is show he can make contact with the ball and get base hits. I think there's a good chance we'll see a power breakout next year. I was just mentally going through some players who I think might make my off-season All-Breakout team and Belt is a strong candidate.

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  6. Reds crush the Dodgers 6-0 to clinch the NL Central title. Giants Magic Number is 1. Bumgarner will be pitching for the bubbly!

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