Sunday, October 2, 2011

Hot Stove Update: Scouting the Centerfielders

It's still pretty warm here in Southern California, but they say 2 winter storms are on the way. Let's fire up the ol' Hot Stove!

Brian Sabean made it pretty clear in his post-season press conference that CF would be the top offseason priority after taking care of the pitching. He also was pretty clear that he is not comfortable with any of the in-house candidates for next season. Andres Torres wasn't mentioned, but the implication was clear. He referred to Justin Christian as an "extra outfielder." The experience with Belt, Crawford, and Hector Sanchez in 2011 has caused Sabean to institute restrictor plates for the fast track, so don't look for Gary Brown anywhere around AT&T Park next April. So who might we look for in CF against the D'Backs on April 6, 2012? Let's take a look:

FREE AGENTS

Coco Crisp: Brian Sabean has all but said he is going to acquire a CF from outside the organization and finding a leadoff hitter is a priority approximately equal to CF. There is exactly one player on the free agent market who fills that bill, Coco Crisp. Crisp is not an ideal leadoff hitter as his OBP last year was just .314. However his career OBP is .330 and he's had it as high as .345. Oakland's ballpark kills BA while AT&T helps BA which would also help his OBP. The Giants have never worried too much about OBP in their leadoff hitters, even though they should. They do seem to be looking for a guy who can steal bases and Crisp is an accomplished base stealer with a career high in 2011 of 49 with just 9 CS. He also has a little pop in his bat with 40 XBH's. Sabean tends to be almost hyperaggressive in situations where he has identified a priority and options are scarce. If he's identified Crisp as his guy, look for him to overpay either in $$ and/or years to land him. I'm guessing $18-21 M over 3 years. 3 years is a risk with Crisp as he's had trouble staying healthy. His 136 games played in 2011 was the most since 2007 with Boston. The Giants experience with injuries in 2011 might make Sabes think twice.

David DeJesus: If Sabes is working with a tight budget and is looking for a cheaper alternative to Crisp and a shorter time commtment, he might consider another Oakland A from across the Bay, David DeJesus. De Jesus is not a classic CF like Crisp and he's not much of a basestealer, but he does know how to get on base. His OBP was 10 points higher than Crisp's in 2011 despite a BA almost 30 points lower. His OBP has been as high as .384. Again, AT&T should help his BA. Sabean personally scouted DeJesus at the trade deadline in 2010 before he suffered a season ending injury so Sabes certainly knows who he is.

Nate McLouth: McLouth has hit just .190 and .228 in the last 2 seasons with ATL, but his OBP is consistently 100 pts higher than his BA. He finished the season on the 60 day DL. ATL has a $10 M option that they won't pick up. I could see him being available as a ST invitee on a minor league deal.

Grady Sizemore: Cleveland is currently debating whether to pick up his $8M+ option. Sizemore was once a potential superstar whose career has been derailed by injuries. Lots of upside here, but I don't see Sabes taking a risk on him even if he's available.

Other FA's: Rick Ankiel, Carlos Beltran, Mike Cameron, Scott Hairston, Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, Cody Ross. Ross could be back if he fails to find a multi-year deal elsewhere. I actually like Cody as a leadoff hitter even though he is not a basestealer. None of the other options really look like options. There seems to be mutual interest between the Giants and Beltran but there has been no talk of him playing CF.

POSSIBLE NON-TENDER FA'S:

Angel Pagan: The Mets are thought to be unlikely to tender Pagan. He's a legitimate CF and leadoff hitter. He and Andres Torres had similar seasons in 2010, but Pagan's dropoff was less steep. Sabes would have to wait until the arbitration deadline on Pagan which he has not been willing to do for high priority positions in the past.

Tony Gwynn Jr.: Could be non-tendered by the Dodgers but again, there's the waiting factor and he's not an obvious upgrade over Torres.

POSSIBLE TRADES:

BJ Upton: He's a SB threat and can play CF and has some power with potential for a lot more. I think he is just one year short of FA. His low BA and history of attitude problems may be a turnoff. He would be expensive in terms of what prospects the Giants would have to give up. I'm thinking Gary Brown would be the starting point. Doubt Sabes would do that, at least I hope he wouldn't and I kind of like Upton!

Alex Rios: Rios had a terrible season for the ChiSox. He has 3 years left on a 6 year/$64 M contract. Has some upside and could probably be had for almost nothing in trade, but too much danger of him being another Aaron Rowand unless the 'Sox would either send $$$ in the deal or take Zito who is not owed much more total $$$ but over a shorter time span.

Melky Cabrera: The Melkman had a pretty darn good season for KC. They have Lorenzo Cain waiting in the wings and may be looking to sell high on Melky. He has one more year of arbitration and will get a nice raise from the $1.2 M he made last year, but it will probably not be a huge amount and it's a short term commitment. The price in prospects could be steep though.

Denard Span: Span had a disappointing season for the Twins and they may be looking to unload him. He's under contract through 2014 for a total of $15.5 M. The Twins would be looking for a significant prospect or two in return.

Rajai Davis: With the acquisition of Colby Rasmus, Davis may not fit into the Blue Jays plans. He's can go get it in CF and is an excellent basestealer, but you can't steal first base! Under contract for $2.75 M with a $500 K buyout in 2013. Could probably be had for not much in return but is he a better option than a Torres/Christian platoon?

MINOR LEAGUE FREE AGENTS

Lastings Milledge, Feliz Pie, Reggie Willits. Some upside with Milledge and Pie but somehow I don't think this bunch is what Sabes has in mind.

That's all I can think of. Any other ideas out there?

11 comments:

  1. I would like Sabean to at least kick the tires on Upton. I believe he has the best upsidw to anyone on the list. Personally I think our best prospects are Brown and Hembree. With Wilson getting very expensive I have my doubts he will be a Giant in 2013. That could give Hembree the green light. We are very thin at CF and Brown is pretty valuable as well. I am not big on anyone else on this list including Crisp. We need a guy who can get on base and I am not seeing it. I believe we should just go with Torres on a discounted contract. If we are competing after the All Star break then we could trade for a center fielder on a team who maybe looking to cut payroll. Does not make sense to get an injury prone player who is expensive. I looked at the list of all current CF's. The only name that popped at that may be attainable is Adam Jones. He is a great defensive player and has some pop with 25 homers last year. His OBP is only .319 but with a spacious park in SF I could see that going up. He is only 25 and I would trade Brown for him right now. We don't know what Brown will be and Jones is a proven player. I would at least approach the Orioles GM at the Winter Meetings and see if he is available at the right price.

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  2. I was just thinking, this list makes Gamer look not so bad. Rowand had 1 year left on his contract at $13 M. cutting him loose sets the bar at finding someone who is at least as good for a lower price. There just isn't that much out there. The Giants better keep Brown and keep him in the minors until they are sure he is ready. Then they have a cost-controlled CF-leadoff hitter for the next 6 years.

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  3. Excellent analysis Dr. B. You are so right on about Sabean. Don't start getting misty about Warrior Spirit though. All these options, no matter how tepid, are better than seeing that stance digging in next year.

    My vote is for Angel Pagan. Don't see Sabean being patient enough for that to develop either, but he had a nice 2nd half (picked him up on waiver in roto) and a great 2010. Or trading the farm for Andrew McClutchen.

    Just have to hope Gary Brown develops into a major leaguer, keep the contracts to one year. Crisp scares the hell out of me. Nice analysis of why it'll likely happen.

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  4. Great rundown of CF possibilities, as usual, DrB.

    I don't think a trade is possible because the Giants most significant prospects is Brown, who is slated to be the future CF after whoever they get for 2012 (and maybe 2013).

    And because Brown could be ready by 2013 (we'll know more after his stint in AFL), I just don't see the Giants signing any legit CF to 3 years. So if getting Crisp would require 3 years, I just don't see the Giants doing that.

    Lastly, I would add that Type A free agents should not interest the Giants, as it would cost them their pick, which I think is in the high teens (18 or 19, depends on who didn't sign high picks last draft).

    Crisp does not cost any picks, so that's not a factor, and I can't see him getting 3 years from anyone else, but 2 years seems like a no-brainer with him, for any team in on him. So the Giants might have to go to $7M for 2 years, more money than years, to get him.

    If he's relatively healthy and hits like he has over the past 5 seasons, which is roughly average for a CF, plus above average defense, then I can see going more $ to get him, but he's never put in a 150 game season yet, and out of 8 roughly full seasons, he's had roughly 600 PA (twice high 500's) in only 3 of them. Echoing that, he's only had (again roughly) 140 games or more in a season 3 times (though close last season).

    Based on this poor history of health, I think even $6M per is an overpay for him, maybe a sliding scale bonus contract where he gets $7M for playing 140+ games, $6M for playing 135 games, $4M for playing 120 games, and $3M base pay. But his agent won't go for that.

    David Dejesus fits the Giants needs better, I think, after reading this post. First, he plays good defense in CF. Second, while he had a poor 2011, he was offensively competent for a corner OF, giving greater flexibility as to where he plays, whereas Crisp is really only a CF offensively. Third, given that he can play corner, he can move to LF should Peguero not develop in time, stay in CF should Brown take longer, move to RF if Schierholtz is injured (again).

    On top of all that, while he does not steal bases like Crisp or any classic leadoff guy does, he does something even more importantly, he gets on base a lot (.360 OPS in 7 previous seasons). Plus, the Giants had basically traded for him in 2010 when he busted his wrist (or whatever).

    That's about the only negative, that he's had a spotty history in terms of playing a full season, he's been almost as bad as Crisp, which should also help to keep his salary demands down, overall.

    Also keeping down demand for his services is that he's not flashy in any way, just competent or good in most ways. That's very much like a Randy Winn-type player, which Sabean obviously likes, except that he's not even competent stealing bases, and he's not particularly a good base-runner. Still, .360 OBP helps mitigate that greatly, can't drive in guys who don't get on base. And as we have seen in Bochy's tenure, he's not against having non-speed guys leading off.

    Any word on whether A's will try hard to keep him? Right now I think he's the guy the Giants will drive hard to get for leadoff/CF, though I'm not wedded to this thought if someone has a better idea.

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  5. Also, Dejesus probably would sign sooner than later, as there will probably be less demand for him relative to other CF free agents, he is not really a name player, which Crisp at least once was. He's more in the Randy Winn mode of nondescript ballplayers. And he might want to see what he missed out on in 2010.

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  6. I agree with a lot of that. Brown indeed would likely have to be dealt to acquire BJ Upton and possibly The Melkman. I think any of the other could be had for lesser prospects.

    Sabean has never let the thought of blocking a prospect keep him from paying an extra year if he thought he was backed into a corner. I could easily see him giving Crisp 3 years and sorting it out with Brown later. Not saying that's what I'd do, but that's Sabes' history.

    Lastly, Brown isn't the only Giants CF prospect although I doubt they would trade him. I actually would have rather given him than Wheeler for Beltran because there is more depth in CF prospects than in pitching right now. My next post will be a review and ranking of the Giants CF prospects.

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  7. Dejesus played CF full time for the Royals in 05 and 07 but has been moved to the corners for a few years. From the reviews on Royals blogs he had good but not great defense. His arm can only be described as very bad. Baserunning is not his strong suit either. Being a gap hitter with high OBP, being able to play all 3 positions and most likely signing a one year prove it deal is good, but he is a lefty bat with no power who is not a full time CF anymore. Given the park factors and likely same costs I'd rather have Ross - better arm, righty bat with 20HR power (with warts of his own).

    Getting off CF, last year at PacBell our HR leaders: Pablo 7, Ross 6, Beltran 5, Nate 4 and PTB 3. We need power from every source possible. Hard to get from CF, but if no power then we need some speed at least.

    The A's OF was the worst defensive squad in the AL West last year. It could be a one year fluke, but before we go chasing after Billie Beane's leftovers we might want to take a step back. All these guys seem like Randy Winn lite with very little upside. I know the plan is fill for a year, but that was Beane's plan as well. It didn't work out well for Oakland.

    For all the talk of Beane going after UZR as the next underutilized stat, the guys he got didn't exactly kill there. I'll save Willingham for Dr B's LF preview.

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  8. Dr B has the lousy CF market made you lose your head? BJ Upton is in his last year of arbitration, FA in 2013. While he's talented, no way is he worth 6 years of a cost controlled top 50 guy.

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  9. I think I said I hoped Sabes does NOT trade Brown for Upton. That's what I think it would cost though.

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  10. Agreed re. Billy Beane and UZR. It hasn't worked out so well in Seattle either.

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  11. KC Royals GM Dayton Moore has publicly stated he'd likely trade Melky for a #3 pitcher 'who is nearly MLB ready.' I think links/atribution is on the "Melky Cabrera" page of MLBTR.

    Jonathan Sanchez. I think that gets Leche to SF.

    I really hope Sabean gets more creative. Andrew McCutchen would be incredible. Trade half the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes and J. Sanchey?

    Adam Jones might be tradeable, for the right pieces- likely J. Sanchey and some prospects.

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