The Giants fired up the ol' hot stove with a pair of moves that will undoubtedly leave self-styled sabermetricians throughout the blogosphere tearing their hair out by the roots with much weeping and gnashing of teeth. The first announcement was the signing of LH reliever Javier Lopez to a 2 year, $8.5 M extension. At that point most observers, including Affedt himself assumed that the Giants would not pick up his $5 M option and buy him out for $500 K. Instead, a second announcement came down within minutes that Affeldt's option had been picked up! This actually should not have been surprising. Let me explain.
For the second year in a row, the team with the deepest bullpen won the World Series. While relievers may not put up impressive WAR numbers, I believe a strong case can be made that their value is not adequately measured by WAR. Let's take Closer position as one example. If you go simply by WAR and other numbers, almost anybody can close. I real life though, we know that is not true. One doesn't have to look any farther than the years between the Robb Nen era and the Brian Wilson era to know the value of a top tier closer to a team. I agree that Saves are not a good measure of a Closer's effectiveness, but think of Blown Saves. The difference between 4 BS and 6 BS is 2 full games that are almost solely the responsibilty of the Closer, 2 WAR points if you will. Yet, those 2 extra Blown Saves don't show up as a difference of anything close to 2 WAR in Fangraphs.
This year is a thin year for free agents all around, as every year is seeming to become, but no position is thinner than LH reliever. Here's a list of FA LH relievers not including Lopez:
Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Damaso Marte
Trevor Miller
Darren Oliver
Arthur Rhodes- $4 M option with $200 K buyout.
JC Romero
George Sherrill
Brian Tallet
See what I mean? If either Lopez or Affeldt, arguably better pitchers than any of the names on that list, were allowed to hit the open market, there is almost no chance the Giants could retain them for what they paid today. At worst, the Giants paid market value, probably a bit less, possibly a lot less.
There are significantly more LH batters in baseball than LH pitchers. This is due to a long term trend for more and more players who are naturally RH dominant to learn to hit LH in their formative years to take advantage of the relative overabundance of RH pitchers. It is easier to learn to bat opposite your dominant side than the throw from the opposite side. Thus, the ratio of RH to LH pitchers approximates the percentage of handedness in the general population, whereas there are significantly more LH batters than would occur naturally in the general population. Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick are the only batters who I can think of who cross over the other way. The vast majority of switch hitters throw RH. 50 of the top 100 OPS's in MLB in 2011 were compiled by either LH batters or switch-hitters. Most switch hitters are better hitting LH because they face so many more RH pitchers. On the other side of the coin, just 24 of the top 93 ERA's belonged to LH pitchers. Baseball is a game of repetition and recognition. The least common matchup is a LH batter facing a LH pitcher. Guess who usually wins that battle!
Now, take a look at the R vs L splits for Affeldt and Lopez and you start to understand why having them in the bullpen to face those LH batters late in game is so important. It's not like Affeldt and Lopez are pure LOOGY's either. Lopez struggled against RH batters a bit more in 2011 but Affeldt had a respectable 3.22 ERA against them. Both pitchers have historically held their own against RH batters even though their greatest value is admittedly in getting LH batters out in key situations late in the game. The value you get from those key outs in high stress situations is almost certainly undervalued by WAR.
If the Giants had failed to retain Affeldt and Lopez they would have lost possibly their greatest advantage over opposing teams, the ability to shut down LH batters late in games. It's not like they could replace them with pitchers who were less well known or slightly less accomplished. There simply was no alternative available on the market!
One thing that a lot of Giants fans still don't understand about Brian Sabean is that if he makes a definitive statement about something, you can generally take it to the bank. He may talk in cliche'd phrases like "kick the tires", "due diligence" and "at the end of the day" when he wants to be evasive, but when he said he would take care of the pitching first, you had to know that's exactly what he would do and probably what he has to do if the Giants are to contend for another championship.
One other way of looking at this is in trade value. Even if the Giants ultimately can't afford $9.25 M for two LH relievers, they can get something in return in trade whereas they would get nothing and have no replacement if they just let them go. Both pitchers are now under contract at or below market value. Given the scarcity of good LH relievers on the market, that they are now very valuable potential trade chips.
One more point: I knew as soon as I saw the Lopez announcement that the Giants would be picking up Affeldt's option. Why? Because the Lopez signing essentially set the market for Affeldt. I'm not sure why a lot of Giants fans are grumbling more about Affeldt's deal than Lopez'. Look at the numbers. Affeldt is simply a better pitcher and more versatile. As soon as it was announced that Lopez would be getting $4.25 M, you knew Affeldt was immediately worth more than the $5 M in his option. At worst, the Giants could pick up the option and trade him. At best, they have two of the better LH relievers in the game, a position that is grossly underrated in value by most sabermetric analysts, at or below a market value that may or may not be overvalued.
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Drb, although a little pricy, I agree that signing Lopez and Affeldt is great news.. Bochy likes to mix and match his bullpen in the late innings to get to Brian Wilson in the 9th inning. I think part of the reason is the Giants don't have a dominate righthanded setup reliever(Mike Adams as an example)that Bochy can give the ball to take care of the 8th inning. I think it would have been disasterous for the Giants bullpen if Affeldt and Lopez were not brought back.. Good job Sabean!
ReplyDeletei was just surprised that they picked up jeremy's option
ReplyDeletethought they would renegotiate for a 2 year at equal money
but this is good news...and means that sabean has learned that pen arms arent a dime a dozen
Hey anon I think you may have overlooked one of the most dominant right-handed set up man in all of baseball last year- Sergio Romo?
ReplyDeleteNevertheless, having both Lopez and Affeldt back is great news. Great insight, DrB on the element of them being trade chips. However, could you argue that there would have been greater value in letting one walk and getting a compensation pick versus what we could get in a trade at some point?
Hey thanks for the comments everybody. I just made one big correction in the text of the post. What I meant to say was there are way more LH batters than LH pitchers instead of way more LH batters than RH batters. Thanks for not frying me on that one. It's fixed now.
ReplyDeleteI guess the point of what I'm trying to say is that these moves are not as pricey in today's market as people are making them out to be.
No way on Earth would Affeldt have been willing to renegotiate a 2 year at equal money. His value on the open market the next two years is at least $10 M. Why would he accept 2 years at $5 M?
I don't think Sabes intends to use either Lopez or Affeldt as trade bait, but if he did, he could get more value in trade than a supplemental first round pick, IMO.
I'm not so sure Romo fits the description of a dominant setup man. People point to his excellent numbers against LH batters, but that is a very small sample size as Lopez and Affeldt keep him from having to face the really good LH batters in high leverage situations. Romo is really more of a ROOGY than a dominant setup guy.
Bacci,
When has Sabes ever NOT overspent on the bullpen? That's been one of his signature characteristics the whole time he's been at the helm in SF! Remember the Robb Nen trade? Mando didn't work out, but not because Sabes went cheap on the bullpen!
Excellent points DrB. I'm surprised and pleased that they brought them both back. I think this is the year that Boston and the Yankees finally put some of their massive budgets into their pens, so Sabean swooped. Our 2 guys were the best on the market by far. I think Lopez left 20% on the table, and a third year. Your assessment of what Affeldt would get is right on.
ReplyDeleteOur pen is neck and neck with Atlanta for best in baseball. One of the best things Bochy does is manage the staff. We don't have Freddi Gonzalez burning everybody up - look at what happened to the Braves this year. Yes, he plays Lopez a bit too much against righties, and underutilizes Romo, but he doesn't burn them up. Is there a lot of money tied up there? Sure, but I think somebody is getting traded, most likely one of the right handers.
In this market, the one in the hand for the lefty relievers is worth way more than 2 in the bush (the possible Type B draft picks Lopez/Affeldt could have brought, and going searching for replacements). The thought of Dan Runzler in any high leverage situation terrifies me. In that light, this isn't a good move its a great move.
Very perceptive analysis. One might add that IF Sabean can't improve the offense drastically, which depends on the actions of other teams and the vagaries of players and their agents, then he needs a strong pen for the close games the Giants will again feature. He needs a pen, too, whom his rotation can trust. Whatever the value of these relievers may be in the calculations of Fangraphs, it is very high in the practical needs of the Giants.
ReplyDeleteOf course, as Sabean repeatedly has said, he needs to beef up the offense, but this move doesn't preclude that. The kind of $$$ he gave Lopez and Affeldt hardly erodes the his ability to allot the very sizable sums he will need to commit, over several years, if he is going to compete for Reyes or Beltran.
Yes, excellent points DrB. This had to be done, as you analyzed very well. Particularly given how Bochy uses the bullpen, there is no way they could not bring them back, especially as Shankbone noted, we can't rely on Runzler in those situations.
ReplyDeleteI was shocked by the Sabean thinks bullpens are fungible statement too. For the most immediate counterpoint, Sabean signed Affeldt to what some thought was a huge contract back a few years and then extended him after a great first season. But he was actually cheap, some analysts applauded this move because they had Affeldt as a potentially cheap way to get a closer because he had closer-like performances, so I loved the move, gave us two closers to finish off games, 8th and 9th.
I assume this comment refers to, one, anger still over the Joe Nathan trade, and, best guess, also releasing that useful lefty in early 2000's who went on to do a lot of good things (Alan Embree, I was bummed by that move too). And I suppose one could also point out his always picking up relievers as a way of justifying this image of Sabean. Plus, there have been a number of failures, Armando being the biggest example.
I think the better characterization of Sabean's attitude towards the bullpen is 1) he knows the importance of the bullpen, the Giants have generally had one of the better bullpens in the majors during Sabean's time as GM, particularly when we were competitive, and, if not, it was not for lack of trying; Tom Tippett, when he was working for that on-line baseball game (and before becoming Boston's defense metrics expert), wrote annual studies showing how important bullpens had become in this, the reliever era, becoming a third leg that helps a team get into the playoffs, the other two being offense and starting pitching; 2) he knows (or one of his lieutenants know) what a good reliever is, they have regularly pulled out a great reliever out of the dustpan of others, the latest great find being Santiago Casilla, but there have been many others over the years who have done well for us, F-Rod, Worrell (though trades too), Scott Eyre, Tyler Walker, Brower, and now I can add Lopez and Casilla.
On an unrelated note Grady Sizemore's option was declined as most expected. Does a 1 year deal sound right for the Giants? It is a low risk high reward situation if we can get him cheap. When he is healthy he is great. I am thinking if we can get him for around 5 million plus incentives that would be a good pickup. We a need a center fielder but can you trust him for the year? That is why we may give Cody Ross a one year deal on a discount to platoon CF and the corner spots. With the Red Sox in on Beltran I don't think he will be in our budget so Ross and Sizemore could be good for us. I would rather spend the money on SS anyways.
ReplyDeleteWith LaRussa retiring, does Pujols look to leave St Louis? Not that we will go after him, just wanted to hear your thoughts.
A one year deal for Sizemore would be great, but I expect there will be at least 5-6 teams lined up to bid. At 5MM it makes sense, as it goes closer to what his option was it looks riskier.
ReplyDeleteNow if Sabean could just get that Cain deal finalized at 4-5 years for whatever it takes, I'd be a happy camper. No way Pujols will leave St. Louis, the Cards blink first.
About Romo, I think one could argue that Bochy over used him, given his arm problems at the end of the season, but I prefer to give Bochy the benefit of the doubt.
ReplyDeleteI saw the roiling waters about how Bochy didn't understand how valuable Romo is during the season, but gave him the benefit of the doubt because of his track record with bullpens. Once Romo got put on the DL, then I thought it was pretty clear that Bochy didn't rely on Romo for LHB possibly because Romo was already feeling some physical difficulties and thus Bochy wanted to utilize Romo for what he is best at, then switching to Loogies to save on his arm.
I know Shankbone likes Bochy generally, so this is not aimed at him, but usually, when I saw someone complaining about Bochy's usage of Romo, I figured that person had problems with Bochy in general and would find anything to complain about him. That seems to be the pattern with Sabean and Bochy, the complainers generally don't want either of them around anymore and find reasons why, because of their skewed perspective. One must always take the view of what is best for the Giants (though I'm sure many of these naysayers think that they are) without the jaundiced view and assuming that Sabean and Bochy is bad for the Giants.
Could there be improvements? We are all human. Facts are that Bochy is one of the few managers in recent history capable of generating way above average winning percentages in 1-run games, on a consistent basis (essentially one every two seasons). The sabermetric rule is that everyone regresses to .500, but not for him. He is the best of his era in this, Cox was good until the last decade, Dusty has been able to do this, but not to Bochy's level, LaRussa, even, hasn't done this well regularly either. Only Bobby Valentine was able to do it regularly at a high rate but then he didn't get a job managing anywhere in majors after the Mets.
And, of course, everyone knows how well he handles the bullpen.
And while detractors say that he hates young players, that's funny, he has had no problems with one of the youngest and homegrown pitching rotations ever, with Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, nor with Wilson or Romo. Nor with Sandoval and Posey.
And nobody can ever take away the Giants first World Championship in SF away from him, try as many do.
Bochy has handled the Giants pretty well over his time as manager. It drives some people crazy that he goes to vets a lot, but it is human nature that pushing people to do better by motivating them is the way to manage people to their potential.
Handing the job to them won't make them fulfill their potential (look at Jamarcus Russell or most any Warriors first round pick for great examples of that). It is generally best to make the players earn it, else they will just keep on repeating the errors that they are making to make them perform poorly up to then. Else you eventually get USSR-era service enthusiasm from them (that is, bad disinterested performance).
Bochy has been good for the Giants, and while I fully joined his supporters during the 2010 season, as I saw him make the tough, "must-win" attitude decisions, after I discovered his great record in 1-run games, I can't imagine going with anyone else until he's ready to move on. He is a great competitive advantage, and I give full credit to Sabean for shoving Alou aside in order to pursue Bochy when the opportunity presented itself.
One of Sabean's best moves (besides trading for Javier Lopez) during 2010 was trading Molina away, so Bochy couldn't play him any more. There are very few managers I'd rather have than Bochy - Joe Maddon? I do not miss Baker or Alou's pitching staff management for sure. I hope they stick to their results driven plan with Huff next year.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Romo is a tad fragile, and needs to be managed carefully. People get greedy for the stats he put up, but your point about Romo getting those stats through the way Bochy used him is a good one. I actually had no problem with the Romo use, I did have a problem with Lopez facing right handers, but its a pretty minor thing.
Its hard to balance making players prove out versus playing vets who underperform. Bochy's insistence on benching Belt versus lefties despite a platoon split of 348/412/934 in 51 ABs, especially towards the end of the season did drive me nuts. Belt didn't seize the position the way Posey did, he'll try again next year when they give him the chance.
I do like that Bochy rarely gives up outs through bunting. If Sabean can get him a little more speed, maybe there are less hit and runs, the Giants ended with a really terrible SB rate and generally looked terrible on the basepaths (when they finally got on). Sabean has talked about getting younger and faster, sometimes its just hard to get that done.
One other thing Bochy does well is he rarely IBB's batters. The Giants are quite skilled at avoiding HRs, pitching batters away and not giving up big innings and I'll give a lot of credit to both Raggs and Bochy on this one.
ReplyDeleteIf Sabean can just give Bochy a solid hitter, a solid utility guy and a plan for Brandon Belt that is consistent it'll be a good offseason. It would be nice to avoid any more 35-38 year old shortstops also, the only other lineup problem I had was having Tejada/Cabrera up in the one/two holes hacking away. Well, any place in the lineup really. And we'd better avoid Yuniesky Betancourt as he looks like the next in our succession of questionable shortstop decisions. Now come on Matt Cain lets get this deal done.
From my understanding, Sabean planned from the very beginning to trade Molina, from the point when he was signed. That caused a typical Bengie drama-queen response ("he's a liar! I would have never signed with the Giants had I known that!").
ReplyDeleteWhat the Giants did in 2010 with Posey fits in perfectly with what was reported about the Giants on him.
It was widely reported that the Giants (and Baseball America) did not think that Posey was ready defensively at catcher to start the season, so it made a lot of sense to keep him in the minors and get full-time instruction from the manager, a former MLB catcher. While waiting for him to be ready defensively, they also had to get him ready to hit in the majors, and that took a while too, he didn't really start hitting well for Fresno until May, but after a few weeks of good hitting, they brought him up.
It was also reported that the Giants did not think that Posey had enough stamina yet to play a full major league season at catcher (roughly 140 games), thinking that he was good for roughly 100 games or so. That is roughly what the Giants did, they had him playing a lot of first base so that he could work on developing his bat and getting used to the majors, then plugged him into the starting catcher's position - as they had planned - when they thought he was ready to take over. He ended up starting 107 games at catcher (75 in majors, and they report 32 in AAA), and he admitted in subsequent interviews that he was running on fumes at the end of the season.
It also made sense to transition like that, over a long period of time, because then Posey would get to observe what Molina did in meetings with the pitchers, picking up stuff from Bengie that he could integrate into his knowledge base, learn how to handle each pitcher individually, establish a relationship with each pitcher, that does not happen overnight, the Giants gave him about 6 weeks, which seemed about right to me.
Given how poorly Posey was hitting before taking over and how well he did afterward, plus how poorly he hit once he reached 100 games, I think the Giants probably played that as well as they could with him, perhaps the only blemish was not giving him as many days off at the end, so that he would have ended up around 100 starts, but with the standings so tight, I can understand why Bochy didn't want to go with Whiteside that much. They could have went to him sooner, but then that's two less weeks of training and rest at 1B, maybe he doesn't hit all those homers in early September if he's winded.
Oh yeah, lost my big post on Sizemore. Basically I like the idea, plus I think he's now Giants target, not Crisp (age, performance,, willingness to sign despite recent surgery). Makes more sense to go $8-10M for Sizemore and risk greatness than Crips 2/$12M and get medicrity.
ReplyDeleteOh man! I'm about 180 degrees opposite you guys on Sizemore. I have close to zero faith in microfracture surgery and Sizemore has given no indication that he's recovered from it. As the Fangraphs article pointed out, even in the games he played this year, he was obviously far from 100%. No way would I invest $5 M in that. If some other team wants to risk it, more power to 'em. I'm thinking more along the lines of $1 M with incentives at most.
ReplyDeleteWell, I will take the opinion of a doctor on this one! I did not know it was micro fracture surgery. Not that I know what that is, but that does sound like a much higher level of physical problem than regular old knee surgery to both repair and rehabilitate.
ReplyDeleteBut I thought I had seen something about Grady hoping to be back to normal after this operation, that also drove my thought on that. Was I wrong or is something like that to be taken with a large boulder of salt?
I would say boulder of salt. There have been isolated cases of athletes making it all the way back from microfracture surgery(BTW, I don't know much more about it than the average non-medical person. I have made note of athletes who have had it and filed it away in the back of the aging brain). There also seem to be a fairly high percentage who don't make it back in any significant way. I don't have a list of everybody who has undergone the procedure and what their outcome was, but it still seems very hit and miss to me.
ReplyDeleteCleveland was reportedly following Sizemore's progress closely and were said to be basing their decision on what they read as his chances of getting back to a semblance of full strength. The fact that they weren't willing to risk the equivalent of a 2 WAR salary on a player who has put up 5+ WAR in the past tells you something, I think.
Great point about Cleveland having all the medical information and what they decided. Greg Oden does spring to mind with the microfracture. I think some team will bid Grady up, but that upside potential is fascinating. I still think he's more interesting than Coco Crisp, who btw was listed as coming to our favorite team by MLBTR in the first FA prediction list I've seen. Crisp and only Crisp. Also, Josh Willingham has predictably demanded 3 years. That makes him especially unappealing.
ReplyDeleteAnd Beltran just dumped Boras for Icon Sports Group. Interesting. I think this bodes as an increase in the chance of re-signing him.
ReplyDeleteMicrofracture knee surgery is more common in basketball and football players. Much more serious than even the classic ACL/MCL surgeries. If you're in Nor Cal, think Chris Webber - explosive athlete reduced to a grounded big man with no speed or lift, and ultimately, career completely over.
ReplyDeleteI am starting to think if we cannot get a true upgrade at any position, then just go internally or cheap alternative. If we cannot get Reyes or Rollins, then do not go for someone like Punto who is not necessarily an upgrade to Crawford. If you cannot get Beltran, then sign Cody Ross for around 4 million. Do not overspend on Crisp who would want multiple years and would block Gary Brown in 2013. Stay cheap and when Huff and Rowand come off the books, then we will have an extra 20 million to spend. If you sign guys like Crisp you are not too much better than before but down millions. We need to make resigning Cain a top priority. I am thinking 5/96 or 6/113. I doubt Lincecum will resign. I am starting to think Cuddyer for 3 years would be good. He can play almost anywhere and can take over for Sanchez at 2B in 2013 unless Panik is ready by then. Also, if Huff does not come ready to play next year, Cuddyer could start at 1B and Belt could be in LF. Cuddyer is very versatile and is valuable if any starters get hurt.
ReplyDeleteI am watching the games in Taiwan right now. I don't know if this us live or not. Granderson hit a grand slam to deep right and the MLB is beating Taiwan 7-0. Sandoval popped up to CF on the first pitch and Torres scored from first as a pinch runner on Morses's double.
Thanks for the input everybody. From everything I can gather, microfracture surgery is still in its developmental stages and the jury is still very much out on whether it is a reliable procedure for restoring athletic careers. It's probably best reserved for players whose career is likely over due to arthritis/injury anyway and even a small chance of recovery is better than no chance.
ReplyDeleteRoger,
I agree on staying internal. I project Crawford to put up at least 2 WAR if he's handed the starting SS job and keeps it all season. The Giants would be hard pressed to top that with anyone less than Reyes or Rollins. Same goes for Belt in LF. My median projection for him is a BA of about .240 with about 25 HR's. That's way better than they are likely to get from, say, Ryan Ludwick, except Ludwick would cost at least $5-6 M whereas Belt is $500 K. Beltran or Belt! I also agree I can think of worse CF leadoff options than Cody Ross.
With the current free agent class I can see the Giants pulling off more trades than free agent signings. The talent is either really good and expensive or mediocre and still pretty expensive. I am wondering what it would take to get BJ Upton, Adam Jones, Shin Soo Choo, or Logan Morrison. Either one of those guys could help our team and not break the bank. We may have to part with top prospects or maybe if any of the teams get desperate far less. I have thought about it and I am wondering if Brian Wilson is worth 8.5 million. He could br a good trade chip at the deadline for a team making a run if we fall out of contention. Hembree could be ready in 2013 and Wilson could land us some MLB talent and some prospects. Just a thought. I don't know about you but when we are losing his hijinx are borderline annoying. Taco Bell commercials need I say more.
ReplyDeleteRoger,
ReplyDeleteWilson's "hijinx" does get annoying, but from a business perspective, he is a cult-hero in the making... From a marketing and merchandise standpoint, he is probably worth millions. I don't know how to gauge such things, but I'd say he is probably worth $2 million a year more just because of that damn beard.
I think there is a good chance that the Affeldt signing is backup to Wilson not being right. His antics are OK when he backs it up on the field, but running away from reporters when things aren't going his way is pretty weak. There might be something really wrong with that elbow. His magical run in 2010 was Rivera like, but now he's looking expensive, injured and overexposed.
ReplyDeleteAgree completely that from a marketing angle he's gold to the Giants, which is scary. He's the last guy they should lock up. However, I don't think he's a good trade chip - too expensive already - Boston has been shopping Papelbon and SD Heath Bell forever, with no takers, those guys are pretty similar to Wilson.
I like all those hitters you mentioned Roger, although Jones would be especially expensive. Can't see Sabean ever uttering Logan Morrison's name much less trying to trade for him. Carlos Quentin may actually come cheaper than those guys, and Swisher who just got his option picked up by the Janks. The only problem with Cuddyer is he costs a draft pick, and has bad road splits. His versatility will be very attractive to Bochy/Sabean for sure.
Larry Baer went on CSN tonight and said all the right things about signing Timmy/Cain long term (good) and then basically said no big hitters will be considered (not good). He also played up his awesome rainy day fund apparently.
for those that made light of the impact that nukem had on the team...there you have it
ReplyDeletebaer is a yes man
without at least an avg offense...no way is the org gonna be able to sign both cain and timmy to long terms...why would they want to grind out more seasons for a team that cannot support their performances
btw...good news/bad news
mccourt has agreed to sell the dodgers/mccourt has agreed to sell the dodgers
if the mlb and selig are smart...they allow cuban to purchase the bums
he knows how to build a winning franchise...and understands how to make for a family freindly enviroment
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteI'm not ready to concede that the Giants will have a terrible offense if they don't sign the proverbial "big bat." You are the one who is constantly harping on "playing the kids." Well, there are some kids in the organization who deserve a chance who might be as good or better than what they can get in this horrible FA market.
Take CStew and Whiteside out of the lineup and replace them with Posey. Put Belt in LF and let his bat develop. Sign a Crisp, DeJesus or Ross at a modest price. Hope Huff bounces back in a contract year. If he doesn't, Move Belt to 1B and pick up an OF at the trade deadline or promote Peggy or Brown by then. Those combinations are a good enough lineup that they can put Crawford at SS for his D and see if his bat develops.
So Bacci, is it "play the kids" or blow up the payroll on FA's? You can't have it both ways.
Yes, Cuban owning the Dodgers would be scary. I doubt that even he has $1 Billion in cash lying around ready to plunk down though. There's going to be a pretty serious debt for whoever buys them to service for quite some time.
Off topic, but:
ReplyDeleteI just saw that the Braves outrighted Antoan Richardson to their AAA affiliate. I didn't realize he made the majors. He actually played in a few games, and has a .500 batting average. Sorry that he is off their major league roster, but am glad that he at least got to the majors. He is one of my favorite (former) Giants prospects.
Yup, loved Antoan. I think pitchers at higher levels figured out they could just throw him high heat and overpower him. His patience at the plate doesn't help him with that. Kinda like Emmanuel Burriss.
ReplyDeleteAnother Ex-Giant farmhand just declared his FA: David Aardsma. Bad injuries, but dude had talent. Giants gonna take a look?
ReplyDeleteSo DrB, you going with 1B or 3B next?
If there is a clear cut plan on Brandon Belt, awesome. If they come out and say "He is our LF, we're not signing anybody" I'll respect that completely.
I like all the players we have right now. They need one solid bat, and one solid utility guy. Beltran would be great. If that can't happen, then some plan for LF. These Oakland Ofs are pretty weak to me, I'd much prefer Ross and Torres back. I'm trying to convince myself Michael Cuddyer might not be the worst signing ever. Most likely a trade is the way to go.
But mainly people are starting to discount the effect of Posey coming back. That dude is huge for the Giants. They do need a backup catcher plan, but from the looks of it, he is on track and that is the best news we can possibly have (besides the confirmation Cain is locked up). The post DrB put up nailed it "self-styled sabermetricians throughout the blogosphere tearing their hair out" - we all love pouring over stats, but baseball is played between the lines. Take a step back, these 3 years have been awesome, the best Giants baseball played in my lifetime, despite the short results on either end of 2010.
Not directed at you at all Bacci, I really like what you post, but I agree with DrB - we can compete with what we have, and the guys we have drafted in the past few years are some of the best in baseball. This doesn't give Sabean, Bochy and especially Baer a get-out-of-being-busted-on card but its not the end of the world if we don't sign the top 5 free agents for 7-10 years, I'd rather have our guys. Sabean does have to get creative this offseason, but I'll take the core plus some tweaks over Reyes-Fielder-Pujols for 7-8-9 and crazy money. The rest of the FA market is pretty mediocre, so lets sit back and wait a bit. I think Sabean is doing great in the first real day of action.
when i say play the kids, im talking over expensive worthless vets...not a big productive stick
ReplyDeleteand if i trusted bochy to stick with the kids, instead of constantly relying on older, worthless vets...then i would have no prob with the org spending on one bat
and my suggestion is to have cuban fronting a group
gonna take a group to buy the dodgers
cuban may not be a local (that is what fat tommy wants) but the guy loves the game, knows how to build a successful franchise, and understands the importance of a sports team to a community
he definitely can be a majority holder, as he offered to buy the dodgers a couple of months ago...which means he offered something in the realm of half to 3/4 of a billion
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteDon't forget that it's not just the pitcher who are going to get expensive real soon. The Giants are eventually going to have to make tough decisions about not only the pitchers but Pablo and Buster as well and after that, MadBum comes due. Do you really want a 7 year/$140 M contract for an injury prone SS or even more for an aging or overweight first baseman making those decisions even tougher? Neuk or no Neuk, the Giants are going to be very hard pressed to hang onto the homegrown talent they've already graduated let alone make a splash in the FA market.