2022/2023 Giants Hot Stove League Depth Charts: First Base

 Brandon Belt has been the unquestioned starting first baseman for the Giants for over 10 years now.  Whether he is back in 2023 or not, that run is nearing it's end.  As it stands, unless the Giants work out a contract for lower salary he'll be a free agent when he is taken off the 60-day IL which he is on for a second surgery on an arthritic knee, which by itself is not a great prognostic sign.  On to the Depth Chart:

J.D. Davis:  .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, 158 PA(Giants).  .248/.340/.418, 12 HR, 365 PA(Overall).  Primary position is 3B where he grades out as a much better fielder per Fangraphs.  K rate over 30% is annoying, but all other boxes check off.  Minimal L/R split.  Giants numbers are remarkably close to 2019 which is last he got regular PA's with the Mets.  So the bat is there. 

Wilmer Flores:  .229/.316/.394, 19 HR, 602 PA.  Wilmer seemed to wear down a bit in the second half and may have felt too much pressure to hit for power.  It looked like he was trying to jerk everything down the LF line.  Re-signed for at least 2 more seasons.  Giants need to manage his playing time better and not rely on him so much for power.

Lamonte Wade Jr:  .207/.305/.359, 8 HR, 251 PA.  Minus Belt, Wade Jr is the only lefty B/T who can play 1B.  Bat was marginal for the position in 2021, clearly not adequate in 2022.  Was that due to injuries or is that who he is?

David Villar:  .231/.331/.455, 9 HR, 181 PA.  Toonder in the bat and he got better as the season went along.  Minor league record suggests he could blossom into a 30+ HR guy as early as 2023.  Is his primary position 3B or 1B?  He mostly played 3B in the minors. If the Giants bring Evan Longoria back, will that hold Villar back or would Longo's mentorship help?

Taylor Jones:  AAA- .262/.270/.453, 12 HR(2 teams).  6'7" 1B.  Strong minor league track record.  Seems like huge upside.  Signed off waiver wire into The Churn late in the season.  Problem is he is out of options so has to make the 26 man roster or be re-exposed to waivers.  Churn theory says there's a enough chance of him clearing waivers to make the pickup worthwhile.

Key Prospects:

AA:

 Frankie Tostado:  .284/.330/.459, 11 HR, 315 PA.  Sleeper JC player drafted in later rounds.  Rule 5 eligible.

A+:  

Luis Toribio:  .209/.309/.429, 21 HR, 437 PA.  Impressive power but contact challenged. Rule 5 eligible.

A:  

Garrett Frechette:  .255/.298/.346, 4 HR, 408 PA.  Sweet swing but light on power. 

 

Victor Bericoto:  .265/.353/.395, 12 HR, 487 PA.  Pretty good all-around RH hitter with some power.

Logan Wyatt:  Second round draft pick in 2019.  Missed most of season with apparent injury.  Playing in Arizona Fall League.  Has not hit for average or power so far in pro career.

There are a couple of problems with this depth chart:  1.  The best hitters are all RH.  2.  1B is not primary position for any of them and it shows in defensive metrics.  Can any of them get better if they make it their primary position?  When Belt is healthy he's a plus fielder but will he ever be completely healthy again?  Top free agent target is Josh Bell but he's no great shakes on defense either.

Another subtle, under-the-radar tough decision for FZ.

Down on the Farm: 2022 ACL Season Review

 Back in the "old days" when the annual amateur draft was held about a week before the short seasons started, most of the college draftees were assigned to short season A ball while rookie leagues were made up of high school draftees and DSL graduates.  Since the draft was moved to the All-Star break, the complex is used for an initial evaluation of almost all drafted players while the players who started the season either get promoted to A ball or see significant cuts to their playing time.  I'm not going to try to keep up with the bewildering comings and goings of draft picks.  There are a handful of younger players who merit a mention.

P. J. Hilson CF- .295/.381/.563, 5 3B, 9 HR, 13 SB, 210 PA's.  Hilson was the undisputed star of the Giants Black squad.  He's long been one of the more tooled up players in the Giants organization but very raw when drafted in 2018.  He finally found traction in 2022 and continued to produce after a promotion to A San Jose.  On the other hand, he's now 22 yo and already Rule 5 Draft eligible so his future is a bit hazy.

Elian Rayo 3B- .238/.359/.419, 6 HR, 192 PA.  Kind of a 3-true-outcomes guy with some power.  DSL graduate. 19 yo.

Onil Perez C- .275/.345/.383, 171 PA.  I maybe should have mentioned him in the catching depth chart post.  Contact hitter without much power so far.  DSL graduate.  20 yo.  M

Anthony Rodriguez SS- .251/.338/.389, 6 HR, 201 PA.  $800 K bonus baby from 2019.  Got a late career start due to COVID lockdown in 2020.  Improved numbers from 2021 while showing some power.  20 yo.

Mauricio Pierre OF- .232/.293/.297, 151 PA.  Faltered after a hot start.  I think he has a lot of upside just based on his size.  Size matters but it isn't everything.

Nomar Medina LHP- 6-0, 2.22, 65 IP, 16 BB, 70 K.  19 yo southpaw.  Approximately doubled his IP from 2021 with similar results.  Should move up to San Jose for 2023.

Miguel Mora RHP- 4-4, 3.29, 54.2 IP, 26 BB, 78 K.  20 yo DSL graduate.

Mikell Manzano RHP- 3-3, 3.93, 55 IP, 17 BB, 81 K.  19 yo DSL graduate.  No scouting report but gets lot of K's.  Got a cameo with SJ late which didn't go so well.

Gerelmi Maldonado RHP- 0-2, 2.27, 39.2 IP, 19 BB, 59 K.  18 yo DSL graduate with markedly improved numbers over 2021 DSL campaign.  May be a better prospect than Manzano.

Diego Velasquez SS- .277/.369/.352, 7 SB.  $1 M bonus baby.  Switch-hitter.  Projectable body.  ACL holdover.  Substantially improved numbers.

The Giants Black squad not only won the Eastern Division championship, they won the championship final agains the Rockies 2-1 in best of 3 series.  

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Great news out of the Arizona Fall League where Luis Matos OF is raking it after struggling in A+ ball for much of 2022.

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And finally, it's a happy day for us Giants fans who perversely find as much or more pleasure in the Dodgers losing as the Giants winning.  Buh-bye Dodgers!

2022/2023 Giants Hot Stove League Depth Charts: Catcher

 Catcher is an under-the-radar tough decision for FZ to ponder as he and new GM Pete Putila prepare for the Hot Stove League.  Joey Bart has as high a ceiling as any catcher in baseball but how long do the Giants give him to reach it?  What if they have a chance to sign, say, Aaron Judge, but Judge says he'll only sign if they upgrade the catcher position?  The 2022 dropoff in wins was spread across a wide board, but losing Buster Posey's WAR and Bart's growing pains were a major contributor.  Speaking of Buster Posey, he's an owner now and apparently a very influential one.  He undoubtedly has thoughts on the issue.  On to the depth chart:

MLB:

Joey Bart .215/.296/.364, 11 HR, 8.9 BB%, 38.5 K%, 291 PA.  This line comes with a BABIP of .326 so it's tough to project much improvement unless he can reduce the K rate.  Second half split was better and he hit .328 in August but tailed off badly again in September after missing some time with a concussion.  

Austin Wynns  .259/.313/.358, 3 HR, 5.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 177 PA.  Wynns improved his numbers as the season progressed hitting .283 in the second half, .356 in September and was catching almost every other game by the end of the season.  Could he and Bart flip roles?  

Ford Proctor.  MLB:  .111/.182/.278, HR, 9.1 BB%, 13.6 K%, 22 PA.  AAA(Giants):  .267/.390/.448, 6 HR, 16.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 142 PA.  Primary position is 2B but added C to a utility resume.  Has options so may stay on the 40-man roster but start the season in AAA.

Prospects of Note:

Brett Auerbach AA.  .220/.311/.398, 17 HR, 12 SB, 11.3 BB%, 32 K%, 425 PA.  Athletic multipositional player.  Aggressive placement after a nice run in MLB spring training.  Started off hot but went through a brutal midseason slump with a late season rebound.  Nice power/speed combo.  K rate needs to come down.  I'm thinking AAA to start 2023.

Patrick Bailey A+.  .225/.342/.419, 12 HR, 15.1 BB%, 22.2 K%, 325 PA.  This line is a lot better than you might think from the BA.  Switch hitter who is much better from the left side, but that is not a terrible split as a catcher.

Andy Thomas A+.  .264/.400/.444, 9 HR, 16.2 BB%, 24.9 K%, 265 PA(Mariners).  .174/.304/.221, HR, 14.7 BB%, 24.5 K%, 102 PA(Giants).  Acquired midseason from the Mariners along with Micheal Stryfeller RHP for Curt Casali and Matthew Boyd.  Lefty batter with solid plate discipline and some power.  Getting extra PA's in the Arizona Fall League.  2 years before Rule 5 eligibility.  Nice under-the-radar trade for FZ.

Adrian Sugastey A.  .240/.329/.333, 5 HR, 8.8 BB%, 15.6 K%, 340 PA.  Pretty solid numbers for a 19 yo C in A ball.  Getting a few extra PA's in the Arizona Fall League.  Should move up to A+ next season.

Juan Perez R(DSL).  .222/.312/.294, 3 HR, 173 PA.  International bonus baby.  Age 17 season.

Depending on how strong the win-now pressure is, FZ could consider signing Willson Contreras who would be the clearest and quickest upgrade.  The A's may be looking to trade Sean Murphy to make room for Shea Langeliers but will be looking for a massive haul in return.  Beyond that it's tough to find any appealing options beyond giving Bart another year to develop and move on to one of the prospects if he crashes and burns.

Hot Stove League Preview: MLBTR Arbitration Projections

MLBTR posted their annual arbitration projections for 2023.  The reason why this has become a significant event each year is how incredibly accurate their track record is.  Whatever the formula is for arbitrators to calculate player value, MLBTR has it figured out and their algorithm works.

The Giants have a whopping 13 arbitration eligible players going into the Hot Stove League.  If the Giants were to tender them all contracts the total projected payroll obligation would be $33.3 M, not a trivial amount.  In fact, the Giants could pay a very high-priced free agent for 1 season for the combined cost of their arbitration eligible players.  Of course, some of those players, like Logan Webb, they want to keep around because his projected salary is far less than his value on the open market.  There are some, however, who may not be worth their projected salary and they might not want to tender them a contract, making them free agents.  

What we are going to do here is list the arbitration eligible players, their MLBTR salary projections and then my opinion of whether the Giants should offer them a contract.  Note:  This is not a prediction of whether the Giants will actually offer them a contract or not.  

Jarlin Garcia LHP  $2.4 M.  2022:  1-4, 3.74, 65 IP, 2.5 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, FIP= 4.27.  Although he had some value as a multi-inning middle-inning reliever, he was not reliable in high leverage situations and by FIP was lucky to have as low an ERA as he did.  Thomas Szapucki LHP is cut out of a similar cloth but is a lot cheaper.  No.

Scott Alexander LHP  $1.1 M.  2022:  0-0, 1.04, 17.1 IP, 1 BB, 10 K, FIP= 2.88.  Alexander excelled as an Opener, Closer and lefty setup man in just 17 appearances.  He had sub-3.00 ERA's in 2020 and 2021 in small samples with the Dodgers.  FIP was a bit higher but still sub-3.00.  Yes.

John Brebbia RHP  $1.9 M.  2022:  6-2, 3.18, 68 IP, 2.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, FIP= 3.13.  Workhorse in his first full season back from TJ surgery.  Opened 11 games with a 0.00 ERA.  Could probably Close if he had to but also probably more effective as a setup man and Opener.  Yes.

Jakob Junis RHP $3.3 M.  2022:  5-7, 4.42, 112 IP, 2.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, FIP= 3.65.  Effective bulk innings guy who collapsed a bit at the end of the season.  Out of options.  Sean Hjelle RHP can play for league minimum, has options and can play a similar role with a lot more upside.  No.

Austin Slater OF.  $2.7 M.  2022:  .264/.366/.408, 7 HR, 12 SB, 325 PA.  Easy Yes.

J. D. Davis OF.  $3.8 M.  2022(Giants):  .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, 158 PA.  One of the best hitters in MLB after coming over in the Darin Ruf trade.  Clear trade win for the Giants as they also got 3 promising pitching prospects.  Yes!

Jharel Cotton RHP.  2022(Giants). $1.1 M.  2-0, 6.75, 8 IP, 4 BB, 8 K's.  Eh, it's only a couple hundred K above minimum salary but he looked like a replacement pitcher in an extremely SSS.  No.

Mike Yastrzemski OF.  $5.7 M.  2022:  .214/.305/.392, 31 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 5 SB, 558 PA.  Not enough bat for a corner OF, but LH hitters who can play CF and hit 17 HR's don't grow on trees.  With Aaron Judge manning RF, a straight L-R platoon of YtY/Slater in CF makes a lot of sense.  A bit expensive but Yes.

Zack Littell RHP.  $900 K.  2022:  3-3, 5.08, 44.1 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9.  Minimum Salary but I really don't want to see Zack Littell on a mound wearing a Giants uniform again.  I'm guessing Gabe Kapler doesn't either.  No.

Logan Webb RHP.  $4.8 M.  2022:  15-9, 2.90, 192.1 IP, 2.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 56.6 GB%.  No.......just kidding.  Obviously Yes!

LaMonte Wade Jr OF.  $1.4 M.  2022:  .207/.305/.359, 8 HR, 251 PA.  Depends on who else they plan to bring in.  Frustrating season but injury may have been the major factor.  Not a terrible price for a 5'th OF and not a terrible use of the roster spot.  Yes.

Tyler Rogers RHP.  $1.8 M.  2022:  3-4, 3.57, 75.2 IP, 2.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 55.6 GB%.  Found his footing in the second half and Kapler found a new role for him:  Multi-inning, middle-inning reliever.  Pretty cheap price to pay for a guy who can eat innings like that.  Yes.

Thairo Estrada SS.  $2.4 M.  One of my favorite players on the team and one I think might have a next level he can take his game to.  Yes!

Down on the Farm: 2022 DSL Season Review

It wasn't a great summer for the Giants DSL complex teams as they finished at the bottom of the South division.  The Orange squad was a little better with a 26-32 record compared to 22-38 for the Black squad.  The DSL tends to be an inscrutable place for prospect watchers because many of the players are so young and physically underdeveloped and sample sizes tend to be small.  The Giants top 3 international signees from 2022* all struggled in their pro debuts in their age 17 seasons:

Ryan Reckley SS- .194/.370/.222, 3 SB, 46 PA.

Juan Perez C-  .222/.312/.294, 3 HR, 173 PA

Dennys Riera SS- .154/237.279, 118 PA.

Don't despair over these not great numbers.  I used to think any DSL player over 17 yo had no chance but it seems like the elimination of short season leagues in the states has pushed older players down the ladder.  19 yo is still probably a bit old for the league but think of it this way:  If these players come back next year and do well at age 18, they still have a great chance to be in San Jose by age 20 which is about right for the level.

Other performers of interest:

Estanlin Cassiani CF 19 yo- .375/.422/.415, 15 SB, 195 PA.  2'nd DSL season. High contact with some speed.  Power challenged.  Should get a shot in Arizona next season.

Jose Ramos SS 19 yo- .272/.400/.422, 3 HR, 22 SB, 181 PA.  2'nd DSL season.  Improved his walk rate considerably.  A bit of power.  Should also be in AZ next season.

Lazaro Morales CF 18 yo- .299/.385/.433, 9 SB, 156 PA. Cuban player. First DSL season.  Is it enough for a ticket to AZ?

Jorge Martinez RHP, 20 yo- 2-3, 3.42, 50 IP, 22 BB, 67 K.  2'nd DSL season with improved numbers.

Mauricio Estrella RHP, 18 yo- 2-3, 3.29, 63 IP, 15 BB, 64 K.  Top performing pitcher from 2022 signings.

Guillermo Williamson 1B, 18 yo- .234/.344/.426, 7 HR, 224 PA.  Prodigious power.  First DSL season.  From Mexico.

Eliam Sandoval LF 18 yo- .314/.392/.535, 5 HR, 97 PA. 2'nd DSL season with dramatic improvement in numbers.

Moises De La Rosa RF 17 yo- .265/.438/.408, 64 PA. Top position performer among 2022 signees

*2021 J2 signing period pushed back to Jan 2022.  Not sure if this is a permanent change or an adjustment to COVID.

More Thoughts on The Churn: By the Numbers

 One of my concerns with The Churn is how much cumulative playing time it gives to sub-replacement players.  Each one might not stick around long but if you add them all up it can have a significant impact, or so it goes in theory.  I decided to try to quantify The Churn effect by adding up all the PA, IP and fWAR of all the "churned" players for a whole season.  

To get started, I had to define a "churned" player.  I looked at players who were acquired as minor league FA's, waiver-wire claims or minor league trades since the end of last season who at some point made the Active Roster.  I started with those players who are now no longer on the roster but realized that may exclude the more successful ones who stuck and and are still on the roster, so I added those.  Here's what I found:

There were a total of 23 players who met the criteria.  15 were off the Active Roster by the end of the season* with 8 remaining, mostly pitchers.  Here's the list followed by PA or IP and fWAR.

Position Players:

Lewis Brinson OF:  39, 0.1

Yermin Mercedes UT:  83, -0.2

Donovan Walton IF:78, -0.7

Willie Calhoun OF: 9, -0.2

Austin Dean UT: 9, 0.1

Stuart Fairchild OF: 8, -0.2

Mike Ford UT: 4, 0

Andrew Knapp C:  7, 0

Dixon Machado SS:  17, 0

Kevin Padlo UT:  12, -0.3

Mike Papierski C:  10, -0.2

Kai Tom OF:  1, 0

Luke Williams OF:  12, 0.1

Ford Proctor C/IF:  22, 0.0

Austin Wynns C:  177, 0.4

Total PA's:  498.  Total fWAR:  -1.0

Pitchers:

Mauricio Llovera RHP:  26.1, 0.1

Alex Young LHP:  26.1, 0.4

Shelby Miller RHP:  7 IP, 0.4

Scott Alexander LHP:  17.1, 0.3

Jharel Cotton RHP:  8, 0.2

Luis Ortiz RHP:  8.2, 0.1

Andrew Vasquez LHP:  2, 0.1

Total IP:  94.  Total fWAR:  1.6.

*Walton and Llovera are on the injured list but I counted them as off the roster as I highly doubt they will be back.

As you can see, The Churn worked better for pitchers than for position players.  FZ impressively rebuilt the bullpen, particularly the left side by adding Young and Alexander, using The Churn.  On the position side, Austin Wynns was the only added player who accumulated more than 0.1 fWAR.  Overall the average "churned" position player was worse than replacement.

As for why "churned" pitchers produced better than position players, it may have just been luck, but I think it's easier to tweak a pitcher's delivery or grip and see immediate results than swing adjustment with hitters who often need to accumulate some PA's to get their timing down.

This is admittedly data for just one season and a down one at that.  It would be interesting to do the same study for all 4 years of FZ's tenure.  My impression is while The Churn produced a handful of productive players, most notably YtY, it also gave a whole lot of cumulative playing time to sub-replacement level players.  That impression would appear to be correct based on the above data.

Thoughts on FZ's End-of-Season Presser

FZ held his traditional end-of-season presser yesterday.  I've tried to find the full recording but have only seen summaries and clips.  He had a few interesting things to say but was understandably vague responding to questions about specific players he might pursue or not when the Hot Stove League opens.  I'll go into more depth about what the Giants offseason needs are when we get into our depth chart analysis.  What I'd like to do here is recap the points the beats are talking about and then pose a few questions I would have asked.  Maybe they were asked but I have not seen them in any of the summaries.

 FZ expects Carlos Rodon LHP to opt out which creates an opening to add a pitcher, which could be Rodon but he'll have no shortage of offers on the free agent market and won't come cheap.  FZ prefers to keep Jakob Junis RHP in a swing role.  Kyle Harrison LHP will likely join the rotation next season, possibly earlier than later.  No mention of Sean Hjelle RHP.  

Q:  Is Sean Hjelle ready to compete for a spot in the regular starting rotation?

FZ is looking for younger, more athletic up-the-middle players.  He is open to signing a shortstop regardless of Brandon Crawford's situation.  

Not really a question but this creates a dilemma.  Crawford does not really have the bat to move off SS and it might be a challenge to convince a top FA SS to move off the position, even temporarily.  They will have plenty of offers from teams happy to have them immediately play SS.

FZ is open to bringing back Evan Longoria 3B and Brandon Belt 1B.  Indicated they might have a reduced role.  

Q:  There are only 26 roster spots.  If you bring everybody back, where's the roster room for additions?

FZ expects to hire a GM before the GM meetings.  

Q:  What qualities would GM candidates have to bring in new ideas to the organization?  Comment:  The Giants seems to have more than enough number crunchers.  A candidate with a strong scouting background but who also understands the numbers like A's Assistant GM Billy Owens, who worked with FZ in Oakland, would seem like an ideal candidate.

Another question I didn't see:  Are you satisfied with the current catching situation going into next season?