When the Giants lost out in the bidding for Zack Greinke and signed Jeff Samardzija for less than half the total cost, many people assumed they would re-allocate the savings, add in the extra $10 M or so needed to reach the Luxury Tax threshold, and go get themselves another SP and/or OF at the Winter Meetings. The Giants themselves seemed to be saying it was their intention to do just that. Then as the Winter Meetings moved along and the Giants delegation came home to introduce Samardzija to the fans, their tone seemed to drift, first to a lack of urgency, of letting the market come to them, then to a sense that while more additions would be nice, they are not necessary because after all, the Giants do have themselves a roster right now.
Maybe the Giants are just trying to cool the market off a bit before making their move, or maybe they have done some internal re-evaluations on the fly and decided their internal options are better than they thought going into the offseason. Or maybe it's some old fashioned lowering of expectations. It does raise an interesting question: Do the Giants need to make more moves? Putting it another way, what would the team look like if the season started today?
For this exercise, we will stipulate that Catcher, the Infield and the Bullpen are all set for the season right now. That leaves SP and OF as the two continuing question marks. Let's start with the starting rotation:
As it currently stands, the rotation consists of Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Peavy, Matt Cain and Chris Heston. The depth chart on the farm would most likely be Clayton Blackburn, Adalberto Mejia then either Ty Blach or Chris Stratton. Tyler Beede and Chase Johnson, who both have AA experience could be within striking distance by midseason. Let's break it down a bit further:
1. Madison Bumgarner is the ace. Barring unforeseen injury, he will continue to be one of the top pitchers in MLB giving his team a great chance to win every time he pitches while going deep in games sparing the bullpen.
2. Jeff Samardzija has the potential to be a great #2 or even an ace. There are a whole host of reasons for his poor performance last season with the ChiSox, not the least of which he was pitching for the ChiSox. He's not a lock to bounce back in 2016, but it's a pretty good bet.
3. Jake Peavy probably comes down to health. If he's the guy who finished the season in 2015, he's a solid #3. If the injuries crop up again, not so much.
4. Matt Cain gave a ray of hope in his final game of 2015 that he can bounce back in 2016 after essentially 2 lost seasons. At the very least, he gets an earlier start on throwing and building up his arm this offseason. Big question mark, though.
5. Did Chris Heston wear down at the end of last season or did the league figure him out? It might be safer to get the answer while using him in long relief and spot starting than in the rotation, but if he is the guy who we saw in the first half last year, he is better than a #5 starter.
That is a rotation right there. Does it compete in the NL West? Well, the Dodgers don't have their two-headed monster in their rotation anymore. They have Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of bigger question marks than the Giants. The D'Backs have Grienke heading up their rotation with Patrick Corbin and Shelby Miller #2 and 3. Are Corbin and Miller better than Samardzija and Peavy? After those 3, the D'Backs rotation is iffy. Colorado and San Diego won't be factors, at least in 2016. Of course, the Dodgers and D'Backs can still add and probably will. The Giants probably still do not want to go into the season with 3/5's of their rotation made up of Peavy, Cain and Heston no matter how much they believe in the arms on the farm.
How about the OF? The Giants current OF roster consists of Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson. Kyle Blanks will probably be invited to spring training on a minor league deal. There is really no depth beyond those names in the upper minors, especially with Devin Harris being taken in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Let's take a closer look:
Hunter Pence will almost certainly bounce back. His wrist injury was flukey and one which he should fully recover from. The oblique strain was most likely a result of all the missed time from the fracture. When he did play, Pence was his usually dynamo self in the middle of the lineup.
Angel Pagan is coming off a horrible season, but is under contract for one more season at $10 M. Bruce Bochy is saying he liked what he saw in September when Pagan seemed to be finally fully healthy. Maybe Boch is talking about his hitting because there were several plays in the OF where Pagan was either dogging it or being tentative out of fear of re-injuring himself. Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean were both quite upfront in saying they think the final year of his contract will be a positive factor in his performance in 2016. The unspoken corollary is they think him not being in a walk year may have adversely affected his performance in 2014 and 2015.
Gregor Blanco is Gregor Blanco. People keep relegating him to being the the 4'th OF and he keeps winning a starting job as the season progresses. He is coming off his best season as a Giant and has averaged 3 fWAR per 600 PA's over the past 4 seasons. Ideally, you probably still want him as your 4'th OF.
Jarrett Parker probably earned the right to see if his September 2015 performance was for real. He could be another Giants rookie who came out of nowhere. On the other hand, he has always had very high K rates in the minors and that could well catch up to him with extended looks in the majors.
It's not like the Giants would be leaning on Parker with no back up in sight. You don't have to squint very hard to see Mac Williamson becoming a monster in LF by midseason. So much so, in fact, that I would kind of hate to see him get blocked by a big multi-year contract to an expensive FA OF. With Jason Heyward off the table, I might actually be happier with a De Aza or Byrd on a 1 year deal as placeholders for Big Mac. Blanks has been plagued by injuries but when he has played, he's hit over .300 for the last 2 seasons. He may well be 500 PA's away from a breakout season.
In summary, I think the Giants really do need to sign another #3 or better SP if they really want to make a serious run for another even-year championship. Cespedes or Upton would probably not make me angry about blocking Big Mac, but anything less and I would prefer 1 year deals for De Aza or Byrd.
What do you think? Are the Giants obligated to spend their unspent money up to the Luxury Tax threshold, or would you be OK with trusting the kids and rolling with what they have now?
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Friday, December 11, 2015
Hot Stove Update: Cubs Sign Jason Heyward
The Cubs continued their rampaging quest to break their 106 year old absence from a World Series Championship by agreeing to sign Jason Heyward to an 8 year/$184 M contract or $23 M AAV. The agreement apparently calls for vesting opt outs at 3 years and 4 years. I'll take the over on the probability that he opts out so this may be, for all practical purposes, a 3 year deal. As things currently stand, Heyward projects to play CF for the Cubs with Jorge Soler in RF and Kyle Schwarber in LF. That could change with a trade or two.
I love this deal from the Cubs perspective. Heyward is the rare premium FA who has yet to enter what should be his prime years. If you only look at his slash line, you may not be that impressed and think the Cubs grossly overpaid. What makes Heyward great is how he does everything, not just well, but very well. Yes, he may be a bit short on dingers, but look at the XBH's, 30 2B and 15 3B per season. He runs well, 15 3B and 20 SB's per season. He grades out extremely well on defensive metrics. He can take a walk, averaging a 10% walk rate, while limiting his K's to 15% over the past 3 seasons. This all adds up to a 5 fWAR/season over the past 4 seasons with the lowest at 3.7 coming in a year when he got hit in the face with a pitch and missed quite a bit of time.
With the current market rate per WAR point pegged at around $8 M, Heyward should return a value of about $40 M/yr if he continues his average over the past 4 seasons. Taking the injury season out as an outlier, a typical Jason Heyward season should return closer to $48 M/yr in value. Now, here's the best part: There is at least a 50% chance that Heyward has yet to reach his peak season! 2016 will be his age 26 season which is right about the time most ballplayers enter their peak years. The Cubs got a great deal here with the only downside for them being the probability that they only get him at this price for 3 seasons. I have to say, the Cubs are looking like they mean business this year. They could well be what everybody thought the Dodgers were going to be by now. The only consolation for the Giants being that the Giants really don't have to worry about anything but a 5 or 7 game series against them.
Heyward certainly fits the description of the type of player the Giants say they are looking for. I don't know why the Giants dropped out of the running to sign him. Maybe he told them up front that he was not interested in playing in AT&T Park. He would not be the first position player FA to tell them that. Maybe the Giants are looking for more power from a big contract? I would point to the XBH's and say that AT&T is tailor-made for doubles and triples. Heck, Heyward might hit 25 triples playing half his game in AT&T! Maybe the Giants balked at the length of contract they were looking at? I can definitely buy into the notion that no pitcher should be given a contract longer than 5 years, and position players can get injured too, but IMO, a 10 year contract for Jason Heyward is less risky than a 6 year contract for David Price or Zack Greinke. Given his age, I would much rather give Heyward a 10 year deal than give Alex Gordon a 5 year deal, just to name another position player with a similar skill set. Most of these mega-contracts are foolhardy overpayments, but IMO, Jason Heyward is, and always was, the exception. 10/$250 would not have been an outlandish contract for him Maybe even 10/$300! He'll be worth every penny of this contract and much more. Again, the only downside for the Cubs is that darn opt out.
I love this deal from the Cubs perspective. Heyward is the rare premium FA who has yet to enter what should be his prime years. If you only look at his slash line, you may not be that impressed and think the Cubs grossly overpaid. What makes Heyward great is how he does everything, not just well, but very well. Yes, he may be a bit short on dingers, but look at the XBH's, 30 2B and 15 3B per season. He runs well, 15 3B and 20 SB's per season. He grades out extremely well on defensive metrics. He can take a walk, averaging a 10% walk rate, while limiting his K's to 15% over the past 3 seasons. This all adds up to a 5 fWAR/season over the past 4 seasons with the lowest at 3.7 coming in a year when he got hit in the face with a pitch and missed quite a bit of time.
With the current market rate per WAR point pegged at around $8 M, Heyward should return a value of about $40 M/yr if he continues his average over the past 4 seasons. Taking the injury season out as an outlier, a typical Jason Heyward season should return closer to $48 M/yr in value. Now, here's the best part: There is at least a 50% chance that Heyward has yet to reach his peak season! 2016 will be his age 26 season which is right about the time most ballplayers enter their peak years. The Cubs got a great deal here with the only downside for them being the probability that they only get him at this price for 3 seasons. I have to say, the Cubs are looking like they mean business this year. They could well be what everybody thought the Dodgers were going to be by now. The only consolation for the Giants being that the Giants really don't have to worry about anything but a 5 or 7 game series against them.
Heyward certainly fits the description of the type of player the Giants say they are looking for. I don't know why the Giants dropped out of the running to sign him. Maybe he told them up front that he was not interested in playing in AT&T Park. He would not be the first position player FA to tell them that. Maybe the Giants are looking for more power from a big contract? I would point to the XBH's and say that AT&T is tailor-made for doubles and triples. Heck, Heyward might hit 25 triples playing half his game in AT&T! Maybe the Giants balked at the length of contract they were looking at? I can definitely buy into the notion that no pitcher should be given a contract longer than 5 years, and position players can get injured too, but IMO, a 10 year contract for Jason Heyward is less risky than a 6 year contract for David Price or Zack Greinke. Given his age, I would much rather give Heyward a 10 year deal than give Alex Gordon a 5 year deal, just to name another position player with a similar skill set. Most of these mega-contracts are foolhardy overpayments, but IMO, Jason Heyward is, and always was, the exception. 10/$250 would not have been an outlandish contract for him Maybe even 10/$300! He'll be worth every penny of this contract and much more. Again, the only downside for the Cubs is that darn opt out.
Thoughts on Yusmeiro Petit
The Yusmeiro Petit era came to an end for the Giants 2 days ago with the announcement of his signing with the Washington Nationals. Petit, who was arbitration eligible for the first time this year had not been tendered a contract by the Giants. His estimated arbitration value was $2.5 M. He signed a 1 year contract with the Nationals for $2.5 M with a $3 M team option for 2017 with a $500 K buyout, making the total deal worth a minimum of $3 M. The $3 M option vests if he pitches 80 innings or more in 2016.
I did not realize that Yusmeiro Petit's first taste of the spotlight as a baseball player came as a 10 year old in 1994 when he was a member of the Little League World Series championship team from Venezuela. He signed a professional contract with the New York Mets in 2001. As he worked his way up the minor league ladder with the Mets, he came to the attention of the Sabermetric Community for his double digit K/9's coupled with sub-2.00 BB/9's. His scouting reports were not as enthusiastic.
He was traded to the Marlins in November 2005 in the trade for Carlos Delgado(man, is 2005 THAT long ago?). He was traded to the D'Backs in 2007. He was given multiple chances to pitch at the MLB level and never quite broke through, although he did take a no-hitter into the 8'th inning against the Pirates in 2009. He continued to mostly struggle and by 2011 was pitching in the Mexican League. The Giants signed him to a minor league contract for the 2012 season.
Petit pitched well for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies in 2012 and was called up for a single spot start in September after the Giants had clinched the NL West title. He allowed 2 runs in 4.2 IP. He continued to pitch well for the Grizzlies in 2013 and was called up in August when the Giants needed an additional arm in the rotation. Then, on September 6, 2013, Petit memorably came within 1 out of pitching a perfect game against his former team, the Arizona D'Backs. In the process, he became the 12'th pitcher in MLB history to come within 1 out of a perfect game.
Petit became an important cog in the Giants 2014 championship run pitching long relief and making spot starts. At one point, he set a MLB record by retiring 46 consecutive batters over several relief appearances. His greatest moment as a Giant came in the 2014 NLDS against the Washington Nationals. Playing Game 2 in Washington, the Giants had tied the score 1-1 in the top of the 9'th inning and the game went into extra innings. As the home team in an extra-inning game, the Nationals still seemed to have the upper hand, but the Giants had an ace in the hole in Petit that the Nationals did not have. Petit entered the game in the 12'th inning. For 6 innings, facing a lineup that included a red hot Bryce Harper and knowing the game could be lost with any single pitch, he proceeded to hold the Nationals scoreless. Brandon Belt hit a HR off Tanner Roark in the top of the 18'th inning and well, you know the rest! Upon the completion of the Giants championship run, Yusmeiro Petit became the first player to win both a Little League World Series and a MLB World Series.
Despite his heroics in 2014, Bruce Bochy seemed reluctant to use Petit in anything but long relief roles in games the Giants were losing in 2015. Despite a dip in his strikeout numbers, Petit ended the season with an ERA of 3.67, .02 better than 2014. Despite that, the Giants chose not to pay his rising salary dictated by the arbitration process. The memory of those 6 innings in the 2014 NLDS is apparently still fresh enough in the minds of the Nationals, they were willing to spend the money on him. I am happy for Yusmeiro Petit. It may not seem like much by today's MLB standards, but he is finally getting the chance to earn some well deserved financial security for himself and his family after all these years in professional baseball. Yusmeiro Petit was a very good Giant who will and should be long remembered!
I did not realize that Yusmeiro Petit's first taste of the spotlight as a baseball player came as a 10 year old in 1994 when he was a member of the Little League World Series championship team from Venezuela. He signed a professional contract with the New York Mets in 2001. As he worked his way up the minor league ladder with the Mets, he came to the attention of the Sabermetric Community for his double digit K/9's coupled with sub-2.00 BB/9's. His scouting reports were not as enthusiastic.
He was traded to the Marlins in November 2005 in the trade for Carlos Delgado(man, is 2005 THAT long ago?). He was traded to the D'Backs in 2007. He was given multiple chances to pitch at the MLB level and never quite broke through, although he did take a no-hitter into the 8'th inning against the Pirates in 2009. He continued to mostly struggle and by 2011 was pitching in the Mexican League. The Giants signed him to a minor league contract for the 2012 season.
Petit pitched well for the AAA Fresno Grizzlies in 2012 and was called up for a single spot start in September after the Giants had clinched the NL West title. He allowed 2 runs in 4.2 IP. He continued to pitch well for the Grizzlies in 2013 and was called up in August when the Giants needed an additional arm in the rotation. Then, on September 6, 2013, Petit memorably came within 1 out of pitching a perfect game against his former team, the Arizona D'Backs. In the process, he became the 12'th pitcher in MLB history to come within 1 out of a perfect game.
Petit became an important cog in the Giants 2014 championship run pitching long relief and making spot starts. At one point, he set a MLB record by retiring 46 consecutive batters over several relief appearances. His greatest moment as a Giant came in the 2014 NLDS against the Washington Nationals. Playing Game 2 in Washington, the Giants had tied the score 1-1 in the top of the 9'th inning and the game went into extra innings. As the home team in an extra-inning game, the Nationals still seemed to have the upper hand, but the Giants had an ace in the hole in Petit that the Nationals did not have. Petit entered the game in the 12'th inning. For 6 innings, facing a lineup that included a red hot Bryce Harper and knowing the game could be lost with any single pitch, he proceeded to hold the Nationals scoreless. Brandon Belt hit a HR off Tanner Roark in the top of the 18'th inning and well, you know the rest! Upon the completion of the Giants championship run, Yusmeiro Petit became the first player to win both a Little League World Series and a MLB World Series.
Despite his heroics in 2014, Bruce Bochy seemed reluctant to use Petit in anything but long relief roles in games the Giants were losing in 2015. Despite a dip in his strikeout numbers, Petit ended the season with an ERA of 3.67, .02 better than 2014. Despite that, the Giants chose not to pay his rising salary dictated by the arbitration process. The memory of those 6 innings in the 2014 NLDS is apparently still fresh enough in the minds of the Nationals, they were willing to spend the money on him. I am happy for Yusmeiro Petit. It may not seem like much by today's MLB standards, but he is finally getting the chance to earn some well deserved financial security for himself and his family after all these years in professional baseball. Yusmeiro Petit was a very good Giant who will and should be long remembered!
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Hot Stove Update: Winter Meetings Day 3
Brian Sabean got into the interview act today with Bobby Evans also making another appearance on MLB Network. I don't know how many of you saw those interviews or what you thought of them if you did, but I got the distinct sense of a lack of urgency from both. I get the feeling that with Samardzija safely tucked away, they are content to let the market come to them, which may turn out to be a good strategy. They both seemed to indicate that getting another dependable SP was the priority, although I thought Sabes was more forceful in saying it. Bobby was more about keeping all options on the table and seemed more open to flipping the priorities for the right deal, but he also said that pitching would most likely be the bigger deal.
Meanwhile, there were several lower level, but interesting deals that went down:
The Pirates traded Neil Walker to the Mets for LHP Jonathan Niese. This looks like a win-win trade filling complementary needs. Walker is a solid, though unspectacular 2B while Niese is an underrated SP who can also come out of the bullpen if need be.
The Mets also signed Asdrubal Cabrera to a 2 year contract. He'll be their starting SS with Walker starting at 2B. You have to think Murph's ship out of NY has sailed.
The Phillies traded Ken Giles to the Astros for LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Vincent Velasquez and OF Derek Fisher. Probably a good trade for both. The Phillies do not need a closer right now so much as they need talent. They get a hard thrower in Velasquez and a big, athletic OF in Fisher.
The Mariners acquired Adam Lind from the Brewers for a couple of low level minor leaguers. Lind is a platoon lefty bat who is better suited to the AL where he can DH.
Lastly, Billy Beane ran up the white flag on the Josh Donaldson trade sending Brett Lawrie to the ChiSox for a couple of minor league pitchers of some promise, but oh my! That's what he ends up with for Josh Donaldson? I guess they still have Barreto in the minors but still……
Early in the day, it looked like Mike Leake might be on the verge of signing with the Nationals, but he apparently rejected a formal offer and the Nats were reportedly backing off by the end of the day. They do seem close to signing Yusmeiro Petit. I guess they haven't forgotten what he did to them in the 2014 postseason?
The big guns usually catch an early flight before the Rule 5 Draft starts, so don't hold your breath on any deals getting done tomorrow. 2 years ago, the Giants hung around to sign Michael Morse. It does not sound like things are that urgent this year, but we'll see.
Meanwhile, there were several lower level, but interesting deals that went down:
The Pirates traded Neil Walker to the Mets for LHP Jonathan Niese. This looks like a win-win trade filling complementary needs. Walker is a solid, though unspectacular 2B while Niese is an underrated SP who can also come out of the bullpen if need be.
The Mets also signed Asdrubal Cabrera to a 2 year contract. He'll be their starting SS with Walker starting at 2B. You have to think Murph's ship out of NY has sailed.
The Phillies traded Ken Giles to the Astros for LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Vincent Velasquez and OF Derek Fisher. Probably a good trade for both. The Phillies do not need a closer right now so much as they need talent. They get a hard thrower in Velasquez and a big, athletic OF in Fisher.
The Mariners acquired Adam Lind from the Brewers for a couple of low level minor leaguers. Lind is a platoon lefty bat who is better suited to the AL where he can DH.
Lastly, Billy Beane ran up the white flag on the Josh Donaldson trade sending Brett Lawrie to the ChiSox for a couple of minor league pitchers of some promise, but oh my! That's what he ends up with for Josh Donaldson? I guess they still have Barreto in the minors but still……
Early in the day, it looked like Mike Leake might be on the verge of signing with the Nationals, but he apparently rejected a formal offer and the Nats were reportedly backing off by the end of the day. They do seem close to signing Yusmeiro Petit. I guess they haven't forgotten what he did to them in the 2014 postseason?
The big guns usually catch an early flight before the Rule 5 Draft starts, so don't hold your breath on any deals getting done tomorrow. 2 years ago, the Giants hung around to sign Michael Morse. It does not sound like things are that urgent this year, but we'll see.
Hot Stove Update: Winter Meetings Day 2
Bobby Evans spent Day 2 of the Winter Meetings looking and sounding terrific in interviews while a couple of other teams made some significant moves(just kidding there, Bobby). First off the Cubs made a pair of moves which clarified their middle IF situation, signing 2B/OF Ben Zobrist to a 4 year/$56 M contract, then shipping SS Starlin Castro to the Yankees for RHP Adam Warren and great field/no-hit IF Brendan Ryan. Zobrist is not the 5-WAR stud he was in his Tampa Bay heyday, but he's still a solid veteran ballplayer. He will likely help the Cubs for at least the first 2 years of the deal, although it covers his ages 35-38 seasons. The deal also clears the way for Addison Russell to be the undisputed starter at SS. As for Castro, his career has kind of plateaued at a much lower level than was projected a few years ago. He may have balked at moving to 2B with the Cubs. Now he'll do that with the Yankees and like it.
The Giants were rumored to be a possible destination for Zobrist, although that outcome seemed unlikely after it came out that he preferred to play 2B than OF. I like Zobrist as a player, but he's not getting any younger. I kind of feel like the Giants are better off not signing him. I don't know what they will do with LF, but I feel like they still have an opportunity to do better than Zobrist.
The other big deal that went down on Day 2 was the D'Backs trade for RHP Shelby Miller from the Braves. Now, Miller is a good pitcher and he will make the D'Backs rotation better, but they paid a frightfully high price to get him giving up OF Ender Inciarte, RHP prospect Aaron Blair and their 2015 #1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson. Miller was a lot better than his 6-15 W-L record last year would indicate, but he may also not have been as good as his 3.02 ERA would indicate either. His K/9 and BB/9 were good but not great while his ERA was helped by a ridiculously low HR/FB ratio pitching in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. His adjusted ERA's were not nearly as good as the 3.02 he put up. He earned a respectable 3.4 fWAR on the season. His contract is controlled for 3 more years before he hits free agency.
Here's the thing. Ender Inciarte put up 3.3 fWAR last year in his first full season in there majors and his contract is controlled for 5 more years. You could make a case that a straight up trade of Inciarte for Miller would have been a fair deal for the Braves! Instead, they also got a potential mid-rotation SP who has pitched at the AAA level and put up respectable numbers in the extremely hitter-friendly PCL. But, that wasn't enough either. They also got the #1 overall draft pick from 2015, Dansby Swanson! I mean, not only does Swanson have the potential to become a 5-6 WAR stud in his own right, he will probably move through the system very fast. 2017 is a good bet for his ETA, but don't be shocked if you see his name in a MLB lineup in 2016.
The D'Backs may be thinking they can mitigate the loss of Inciarte with Socrates Brito and/or Yasmany Tomas, or they may be thinking they will pick up another OF this offseason. If that is the case, then Miller is a pure addition and makes the D'Backs better this year. In the long run, the Snakes paid a frightfully high price and the Braves turned around their struggling rebuild in one trade.
The Giants were rumored to be a possible destination for Zobrist, although that outcome seemed unlikely after it came out that he preferred to play 2B than OF. I like Zobrist as a player, but he's not getting any younger. I kind of feel like the Giants are better off not signing him. I don't know what they will do with LF, but I feel like they still have an opportunity to do better than Zobrist.
The other big deal that went down on Day 2 was the D'Backs trade for RHP Shelby Miller from the Braves. Now, Miller is a good pitcher and he will make the D'Backs rotation better, but they paid a frightfully high price to get him giving up OF Ender Inciarte, RHP prospect Aaron Blair and their 2015 #1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson. Miller was a lot better than his 6-15 W-L record last year would indicate, but he may also not have been as good as his 3.02 ERA would indicate either. His K/9 and BB/9 were good but not great while his ERA was helped by a ridiculously low HR/FB ratio pitching in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. His adjusted ERA's were not nearly as good as the 3.02 he put up. He earned a respectable 3.4 fWAR on the season. His contract is controlled for 3 more years before he hits free agency.
Here's the thing. Ender Inciarte put up 3.3 fWAR last year in his first full season in there majors and his contract is controlled for 5 more years. You could make a case that a straight up trade of Inciarte for Miller would have been a fair deal for the Braves! Instead, they also got a potential mid-rotation SP who has pitched at the AAA level and put up respectable numbers in the extremely hitter-friendly PCL. But, that wasn't enough either. They also got the #1 overall draft pick from 2015, Dansby Swanson! I mean, not only does Swanson have the potential to become a 5-6 WAR stud in his own right, he will probably move through the system very fast. 2017 is a good bet for his ETA, but don't be shocked if you see his name in a MLB lineup in 2016.
The D'Backs may be thinking they can mitigate the loss of Inciarte with Socrates Brito and/or Yasmany Tomas, or they may be thinking they will pick up another OF this offseason. If that is the case, then Miller is a pure addition and makes the D'Backs better this year. In the long run, the Snakes paid a frightfully high price and the Braves turned around their struggling rebuild in one trade.
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
Hot Stove Update: Winter Meetings Day 1
It was a strange day at MLB's Winter Meetings as the Giants did not make any headlines, but continued to appear to want to make deals. The day started fast with the announcement of Aroldis Chapman going to the Dodgers for a couple of second tier prospects. This move continued and accelerated the trend of rich teams stockpiling closers to try to get depth in their bullpens as the Dodgers already had one of the better closers in the game in Kenley Jansen. What's more, both Chapman and Jansen are on schedule to be free agents at the end of the 2016 season.
As the day wore on and no official announcement was forthcoming, the deal seemed to fall apart in slow motion. Hastily written analysis articles were left twisting in the wind. First, there were accusations that the Dodgers had jumped the gun on the announcement to try to trigger another trade. Then we heard that other teams were jumping in and trying to top the Dodgers offer. Then, the blockbuster story was broken by none other than Yahoo Sports: There is a police report from October 30 of a domestic violence report in which Chapman was alleged to choke his girlfriend, then went out to his garage and discharged a firearm 8 times, 8 times! Chapman was not arrested and no charges have been filed. MLB has the duty, under changes to the CBA, to do their own investigation and has the authority to meet out it's own punishment. Then, Walt Jocketty made the formal announcement that the deal is on indefinite hold as is likely any other potential deal. Wow! A very bold, but strange move by the Dodgers blew up in their face!
One deal the Dodgers apparently did complete was the signing of RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, formerly of the Seattle Mariners, to a 3 year/$45 M contract. Iwakuma has been a good pitcher for the Mariners when healthy, but has missed chunks of time with injuries. Moreover, he is 35 years old, as old as Jeff Samardzija will be at the end of his contract with the Giants. Needless to say, Dodgers fans are starting to rumble about Andrew Friedman and Dodgers management, who seem to be struggling with the translation of "Moneyball" tactics into a big spending environment.
Overshadowed by the Dodgers machinations, was a pretty significant trade that sent LHP Wade Miley and a pitching prospect from the BoSox to the Mariners for LHP Roenis Elias and RHP Carson Smith. I am not sure what to make of this trade. I really like Wade Miley and thought he might be a nice trade target for the Giants on a buy low deal. This really isn't buying low, though. Elias is a comparable pitcher and Smith was the Mariners closer in the second half of 2015 putting up tremendous numbers. I like Miley a little better than Elias, but Smith would seem to be way more valuable than the difference. I'm going to call this one a clear win for Boston.
Today is shaping up to be decision day for Ben Zobrist. He likes SF and likes the Giants but prefers to play 2B, so he's probably going to either Washington or the Mets. A Zobrist decision could create a domino effect with other FA OF's, or it might not as most teams are still focused on pitching.
The wildest scariest speculation I heard on the MLB channel last night was the idea of the ChiSox trading Chris Sale to the Dodgers for a shipload of prospects. Do Not Want That To Happen!
Oh, and Jon Heyman predicted Cespedes ends up with the Giants.
As the day wore on and no official announcement was forthcoming, the deal seemed to fall apart in slow motion. Hastily written analysis articles were left twisting in the wind. First, there were accusations that the Dodgers had jumped the gun on the announcement to try to trigger another trade. Then we heard that other teams were jumping in and trying to top the Dodgers offer. Then, the blockbuster story was broken by none other than Yahoo Sports: There is a police report from October 30 of a domestic violence report in which Chapman was alleged to choke his girlfriend, then went out to his garage and discharged a firearm 8 times, 8 times! Chapman was not arrested and no charges have been filed. MLB has the duty, under changes to the CBA, to do their own investigation and has the authority to meet out it's own punishment. Then, Walt Jocketty made the formal announcement that the deal is on indefinite hold as is likely any other potential deal. Wow! A very bold, but strange move by the Dodgers blew up in their face!
One deal the Dodgers apparently did complete was the signing of RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, formerly of the Seattle Mariners, to a 3 year/$45 M contract. Iwakuma has been a good pitcher for the Mariners when healthy, but has missed chunks of time with injuries. Moreover, he is 35 years old, as old as Jeff Samardzija will be at the end of his contract with the Giants. Needless to say, Dodgers fans are starting to rumble about Andrew Friedman and Dodgers management, who seem to be struggling with the translation of "Moneyball" tactics into a big spending environment.
Overshadowed by the Dodgers machinations, was a pretty significant trade that sent LHP Wade Miley and a pitching prospect from the BoSox to the Mariners for LHP Roenis Elias and RHP Carson Smith. I am not sure what to make of this trade. I really like Wade Miley and thought he might be a nice trade target for the Giants on a buy low deal. This really isn't buying low, though. Elias is a comparable pitcher and Smith was the Mariners closer in the second half of 2015 putting up tremendous numbers. I like Miley a little better than Elias, but Smith would seem to be way more valuable than the difference. I'm going to call this one a clear win for Boston.
Today is shaping up to be decision day for Ben Zobrist. He likes SF and likes the Giants but prefers to play 2B, so he's probably going to either Washington or the Mets. A Zobrist decision could create a domino effect with other FA OF's, or it might not as most teams are still focused on pitching.
The wildest scariest speculation I heard on the MLB channel last night was the idea of the ChiSox trading Chris Sale to the Dodgers for a shipload of prospects. Do Not Want That To Happen!
Oh, and Jon Heyman predicted Cespedes ends up with the Giants.
Sunday, December 6, 2015
Hot Stove Update: What are the Giants Looking for at the Winter Meetings?
The Giants have to be feeling pretty good about their position going into MLB's Winter Meetings. They already took care of the one piece of business they absolutely had to take care of, signing a strong SP. No, it wasn't Zack Greinke, and it would have been great if he had gone somewhere out of the NL West, but the most important part of that deal is not that he went to the D'Backs, but the Dodgers lost him. The Giants immediately went to their back up plan and signed Jeff Samardzija for a very reasonable contract. The Dodgers? They are in the process of signing a pitcher to a 3 year deal who is as old now as Samardzija will be in the final year of his contract with the Giants! Bwahahahahaha!!!
So, with the most important business completed, the Giants head into the Winter Meetings still carrying a huge wad of caishish, and with the freedom and flexibility to go in almost any direction. Here are some of the options:
1. Spend approximately equal money on another second tier SP. Johnny Cueto's cost might be a bit rich, but a Mike Leake would work just fine for me, so would Wei-Yin Chen. This would still leave a few shekels left over to sign a reliever like Joakim Soria or better yet, a nice lefty like Tony Sipp. Not sure about CF, but they need someone who can D it up out there.
2. Sign a power hitting OF. Bobby Evans reportedly said the Giants are looking for a power hitter who can play LF and maybe CF. Let's see, he could be talking about one, Jason Heyward, but he isn't really a big HR hitter. There is another guy who fits that description a lot better and that would be…..Yoenis Cespedes! Cespedes is a bit of a hot dog and he's streaky has heck. On the other hand, he's athletic as hell and his numbers are generally right there at the end of the season. Who does THAT remind me of? A guy the Giants acquired to play RF a few seasons ago, that's who! I suppose if they went for a Cespedes, the Giants would go for a lesser SP than one of the second tier dudes. Maybe a Doug Fister or an Ian Kennedy? Maybe a trade?
3. How about splitting the difference and going for a couple of third tier guys like Scott Kazmir as the second SP and Ben Zobrist as the OF with the added bonus of Zobrist's tremendous versatility? Zobrist was in SF this weekend talking with the Giants, so stay tuned on that front.
We've been disappointed before, but gotta think the Giants won't leave the Winter Meetings without at least one big deal done.
OK, this will never happen, but here is DrB's new dream scenario:
1. Sign Cespedes to play LF.
2. Trade whatever it takes from the farm system to pry Billy Hamilton from the Reds to play CF. He's got game changing speed with on-base upside and can D it up like crazy in CF.
3. Sign Ian Kennedy or some equivalent pitcher. He is kind of a Jeff Samardzija lite. Coming off a down season but maintained a strong K rate. He seems like a guy who is likely to bounce back and would probably benefit from being coached by the Giants pitcher whisperers.
Hey, I just made that up!
What is YOUR dream scenario for the Giants at the Winter Meetings?
So, with the most important business completed, the Giants head into the Winter Meetings still carrying a huge wad of caishish, and with the freedom and flexibility to go in almost any direction. Here are some of the options:
1. Spend approximately equal money on another second tier SP. Johnny Cueto's cost might be a bit rich, but a Mike Leake would work just fine for me, so would Wei-Yin Chen. This would still leave a few shekels left over to sign a reliever like Joakim Soria or better yet, a nice lefty like Tony Sipp. Not sure about CF, but they need someone who can D it up out there.
2. Sign a power hitting OF. Bobby Evans reportedly said the Giants are looking for a power hitter who can play LF and maybe CF. Let's see, he could be talking about one, Jason Heyward, but he isn't really a big HR hitter. There is another guy who fits that description a lot better and that would be…..Yoenis Cespedes! Cespedes is a bit of a hot dog and he's streaky has heck. On the other hand, he's athletic as hell and his numbers are generally right there at the end of the season. Who does THAT remind me of? A guy the Giants acquired to play RF a few seasons ago, that's who! I suppose if they went for a Cespedes, the Giants would go for a lesser SP than one of the second tier dudes. Maybe a Doug Fister or an Ian Kennedy? Maybe a trade?
3. How about splitting the difference and going for a couple of third tier guys like Scott Kazmir as the second SP and Ben Zobrist as the OF with the added bonus of Zobrist's tremendous versatility? Zobrist was in SF this weekend talking with the Giants, so stay tuned on that front.
We've been disappointed before, but gotta think the Giants won't leave the Winter Meetings without at least one big deal done.
OK, this will never happen, but here is DrB's new dream scenario:
1. Sign Cespedes to play LF.
2. Trade whatever it takes from the farm system to pry Billy Hamilton from the Reds to play CF. He's got game changing speed with on-base upside and can D it up like crazy in CF.
3. Sign Ian Kennedy or some equivalent pitcher. He is kind of a Jeff Samardzija lite. Coming off a down season but maintained a strong K rate. He seems like a guy who is likely to bounce back and would probably benefit from being coached by the Giants pitcher whisperers.
Hey, I just made that up!
What is YOUR dream scenario for the Giants at the Winter Meetings?
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