The Giants have kept the hot stove stoked late into the season. We can all hope they have a comparable stretch run in the 2026 MLB season. They moved closer to the all-important CBT threshold with yet another "value" signing as Buster's strategy of signing multiple lower cost players over one or two big-ticket targets comes into clearer focus. This time it was the man with the shiny batting average, Luis Arraez for 1 yr/$12 M. A second baseman by trade, Arraez had trouble finding innings at the position over the last two seasons and was openly looking for a team who would play him there. The Giants reportedly are that team. Let's break it down:
Luis Arraez 1B/2B. DOB: 4/9/1997. B-L, T-R. 5' 10", 175 lbs.
2025(Padres): .292/.327/.392, 30 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 11 SB, 5.0 BB%, 3.1 K%, 675 PA.
Arraez is an elite contact hitter who almost never strikes out. That is the type of hitter Buster Posey said he thinks fits the Giants home ballpark. He's like a throwback to Pete Rose with two seasons of 200 or more hits. The two raps on him are that he's an empty batting average and he is a poor defender. His defensive metrics are a bit mixed as he looks worse by Outs Above Average(OAA) than by Fangraphs Ultimate Zone Rating(UZR). Arraez reports he worked out with a defensive coach at the 2B position over the winter. He is reported to have one of the slowest foot speeds in all of MLB but he somehow still managed to steal 11 bases.
From a hitting standpoint I like the signing. I saw so many situations over the past few years where a base hit would drive in at least one and possibly two runs only to see the batter strike out of pop up and end the threat. If he can be coached up to play a passable 2B then it's a great fit and the price is right. Arraez' profile reminds me of Melky Cabrera. Melky didn't work out in the end due to off-field issues but it sure was a fun ride while it lasted. Arraez does create a tough situation for Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss as there now may not be room on the active roster for both as utility infielders although there could still be some PA's at DH if the Giants decide Bryce Eldridge needs some more seasoning in AAA.
Here is a list of Giants free agent signings for this year's Hot Stove League season:
Sam Hentges LHP: 1 yr/$1.4 M
Jason Foley RHP: 1 yr/$2 M
Adrian Houser RHP: 2 yr/$22 M
Tyler Mahle RHP: 1 yr/$10 M
Harrison Bader OF: 2 yr/$20.5 M
Luis Arraez 2B/1B/DH: 1 yr/$12 M
Total additional 2026 Salary(AAV): $47 M.
The Arraez signing bumps their CBT number to about $228 M which is about $16 M below the threshold.
We can argue endlessly about whether the Giants ownership should be willing to spend above the CBT threshold but there are non-financial reasons why they shouldn't. We can also disagree with how Buster chose to spend the money but he did spend it and got 6 players who should each upgrade their respective positions. To my eye it looks like a successful Hot Stove League season. I will be surprised if they make any more major signings which would put them over the CBT threshold. Now watch Buster sign Framber Valdez and prove all of us wrong about how much Giants ownership is willing to spend.
Not only "...how much Giants ownership is willing to spend..." but also for how many years.
ReplyDeleteWith three contract 4 years and longer (Devers' is a lot longer) and another for 3 years which they may well want to extend (Webb) and another with an option on the 3rd year, it seemed clear from the get-go that there would be no long contracts.
Reportedly, Valdez is seeking a deal of at least 5 years, but there have only been 7 contracts 5 years or longer out of 109 free agent MLB signings. To sign Valdez for anything would take SF over the first luxury tax threshold which Johnson did NOT absolutely say they wouldn't, but $32M/yr would take them over the 2nd threshold.
I’m just happy we haven’t traded any of our prospects and have improved at least on paper. All low risk signings yet all potential upgrades. There is depth where there wasn’t last year and I expect to see a more balanced lineup with 2 more professional hitters in it compared to last year. Schmidt will get his reps but Koss may be out which is ok. Tony V has some pieces to work with now can’t wait to watch him cook!
ReplyDeleteI don’t want to sign Framber, no thank you. Buster is being smart. They are willing to spend but they aren’t going to just throw their money at anyone and they aren’t going to be like the Dodgers and Mets and massively overpay. They also want to spread out their big contacts so since nothing worked out with the big free agents this off-season, they are fine waiting until next offseason or the off-season after in order to spread the contracts. Also, all the people they signed this year are free agents next year or the year after so they aren’t long term investments and won’t get in the way of signing someone in the future and also won’t get in the way of blocking any potential young guys.
ReplyDeleteDoc, I like this signing as well.
ReplyDeleteBaseball Reference under Fielding Stats are not scary run and hide > Career wise over all postions played, in 700 plus games a total of 30 fielding errors. Not number that are egregious. fielding % overall was .991.
From a Management perspective this appears to be a case of making a plan and sticking to the plan.
Enough cap space left for mid season.
I am definitely looking forward with a bit more tha cautious optomism.
Good work Buster and Zack.
Lets see how Tony takes them through spring trainig.
Richard in Winnipeg
$16M is still enough to sign Verlander...
ReplyDeleteAs Josh Naylor 24.4 fps foot speed 30/32 sb and Juan Soto 25.8 fps 38/42 sb, both of whom are slower runners than Arraez have shown, plodders who can read pitchers well, take good leads, and choose their opportunities well can be successful base stealers. We would hope of course that the stolen bases are used strategically rather than to pad stats.
ReplyDeleteNot a knock on Koss by any means, as I am a fan of his scrappy play, but between Schmidtt and Koss, I see Schmitt having more upside as the utility IF. I can envision him playing the Wilmer Flores role.
ReplyDeleteI love this move. He led the league in hits last season, has three batting titles under his belt, AND is the active leader in career batting average. His hitting tools look A LOT like Marco Scutaro. And he's healthier. Can't say he'll have Scutaros range at second,, but he also doesn't have a frying pan for a glove. This is a great pickup. Hope he ends up signing long term. Oh, and he's also Venezuelan. Again, a great move.
ReplyDeleteI never liked seeing Arraez batting with runners on base he will hit the ball somewhere and not strikeout. It'll be fun for me to watch him hit, instead of watching other players strikeout too much. My friend who is a padre fan didn't like that Arraez will continue to play in the West. Thumbs up on the signing. Also hearing positive comments about Birdsongs stuff looking good this spring. Interesting that when Vitellio was asked what player was he most looking forward to work with his answer was Birdsong. If Birdsong can have a good 2026 season, the Giants new pitching coaches will be off to a good start. I believe Buster when he says owners will listen if he brings a proposal to them. They went over the tax during FZ's last year, which may not have been a good idea since FZ was trying to save his job, its an assumption could b wrong. Framber asking for a lot of $ and years, a risk for any pitcher contract. If he is still not signed after spring training starts, forget signing him. Pitchers need the spring to ramp up.
ReplyDeleteReposting to the relevant thread:
ReplyDeleteIf Casey Schmidt is good enough to contribute offensively at 2nd, he's a better defensive player there and Arraez could hold down DH for the first month or two while Bryce Eldridge gets that final touch of salt he needs down in AAA...
Anyways, I'm really pleased with the signing. With a rapidly improving Farm, could always see another Devers-like trade during the year.
hope they had the conversation with him that if his defense at second is bad that he moves to dh, pinch hitter maybe sometime first base. Highlights I saw of him at first seemed to show a lot of hustle.
ReplyDeleteExceeding the CBT threshold is not just money, it would mean loss of draft picks and international bonus pool money. The bonus pool money that they lost this season due to the signing of Adames was a significant limitation because they were only able to sign three of their international prospects. With the 2027 work stoppage looming, it might not be a good idea to take on too much more until they know what is in the new collective bargaining agreement.
ReplyDeleteI am stoked about this latest signing for the Giants. I see lots of room for flexibility. Bring I Casey Schmidt in late innings for more defense. Arraez can DH at times. Play around with different batting orders. Looks to be a fun season.
ReplyDeleteAlso reminds me a tad of the acquisition of Cubs batting-champion 3B Bill Madlock back in '77, to play 2B. Madlock was not ideal at 2B but he still could hit. Had a bit more punch than Arraez.
ReplyDeleteI'd expect one more starting pitcher signed, most likely a recovering veteran on a one-year prove-it deal. Buehler or similar.
NOT THRILLED TO SEE CASEY LOSE HIS SHOT AT THE JOB. BY ALL ACCOUNTS, GREAT GUY, GREAT TEAMMATE, AND BIG POWER POTENTIAL.
ReplyDeleteHas Arraez hit well in Oracle Park over the past few seasons?
ReplyDeleteI saw an analysis of Arraez that pointed out he has some ugly stats relating to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. That doesn't help his power stats and lets outfielders play way in when he's up. So, even though he's a contact hitter, he swings at a lot of bad balls that turn into weak outs. If he was really the second coming of Rod Carew, why have so many other teams given up on him? And why wasn't anyone interested in signing him longterm?
ReplyDeleteNobody said Arraez is another Rod Carew. He's a throwback to an era where BA considered a valuable stat. There are a lot of analysts today who don't consider Rod Carew's career to be all that valuable. As for swinging at pitches out of the zone, there is an inverse correlation between swinging out of the zone and strikeouts. Simple math tells you if you take too many borderline pitches, your K rate is going to go up because you can't strike out until you get to strike two.
DeleteIf Rod Carew's career is looked at from an offensive perspective, it was elite in terms of high batting average, high OBP, longevity, and consistency. His WAR after he moved to first base suffers not because his hitting dropped off but because he is being compared to slugging first basemen. When he was a second baseman, he was more of a unicorn. When he was a first baseman, he was still valuable but not in the fashion of a typical first baseman. His value came more from contact and not power.
Delete...and how is that different than Arraez situation?
DeleteI'm not comparing the two. Its just that a lot of analysts today just look at Carew's WAR but I remember that he was always a tough out and always a threat to hit a line drive. Carew was better at "hitting where they ain't" and was baseball's highest paid player in 1979.
ReplyDeleteI think it's a fair question to ask if Arraez is really capable of playing adequate defense at 2B, but his high-contact approach seems like a needed addition to the lineup.
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