2025(AA): .280/.350/.512, 7 HR, 9.3 BB%, 27.9 K%, 140 PA.
2025(AAA): .249/.322/.514, 18 HR, 9.8 BB%, 30.8 K%, 286 PA.
2025(MLB): .107/.297/.179, 18.9 BB%, 35.1 K%, 37 PA.
Just for perspective, last year was Bryce Eldridge's age 20 season and was his third professional season. Had he not been added to the 40-man roster, he would still have two development years before being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. He rocketed through the minor league system and hit with monster power at every level. A late season cup of coffee at the MLB level didn't have the same results but he impressed with his plate discipline and pitch selection.
All signs point to once he gets his feet on the ground and a larger sample size, he will be an impact power hitter. The big question is whether he needs to work on closing some holes in his swing back in AAA before a promotion later in the season or if it's better for him to see MLB pitching on the theory that he won't improve if he's facing competition he's already beaten. I favor the latter. Yes, his K rate is high, but it's going to be for any 6' 7" power hitter. Have you looked up Aaron Judge's K rate in his first MLB experience? He's going to be a 3-true outcomes guy, especially early in his career.
The tea leaves are telling me the Giants also favor the latter approach and are planning for him to be in the lineup on Opening Day. That could change if he looks overmatched in spring training but if he does start the season in AAA, it should be a short stay there before he gets called back up to stay. Whenever he takes his place in the lineup he should bat 7'th or 8'th and the Giants should accept he will have his share of strikeouts and will probably bat somewhere around the Mendoza Line but even that should come with 20-25 HR's which would be a very good outcome for his rookie season.
One thing not often mentioned about Bryce last season is that he dealt with a wrist injury the entire season. I think the expectations you have for him are pretty accurate.. reminds me a little bit of Dave Kingman who would have been more valued in today’s game. As I recall Kingman had a bit of a surly attitude and everything I’ve heard about Bryce is quite the opposite. I think the ceiling for Bryce is much higher than Kingman and that he will ultimately make much more contact .
ReplyDeleteGs have mis-managed a lot of prospects with too early promotion, then little runway and sporadic time with yo-yoing up/down (Bart, Matos, Meckler, Ramos, Luciano)...hope they are not doing with Eldridge -- moving too fast, blocking his position, now adding OF to his plate...
ReplyDeleteAgreed. What's the hurry?
DeleteIf he's ready, great, we'll know. If not, don't push the situation and get him into yo-yoing back and forth.
That is a most interesting take.
ReplyDeleteThere must be some thought that it isn't going to happen or how does Encarnación play into that mix Or would he give a day off to one of them (although Devers wants to play/DH everyday, and should)?
And maybe why they haven't signed Dominic Smith who might also be sharing the 1B/DH role, although he has the "disadvantage" of batting LH – the Giants definitely don't need 3 of them.
Makes sense unless Eldridge, at 21 yo, is just not ready and falls below Mendoza.
Love Encarnacion! But, he's got a bit of a cult hit thing going for him right now.
DeleteHe's way too good for AAA, but he's got to show he's a monster in the Majors, because that glove isn't getting him any playing time...
Buster is aware of the effect of premature promotions and stated that players will be promoted more based on readiness and not necessarily to fill upper level needs.
ReplyDeleteEarlier poster said he though Bryce had higher upside then Dave Kingman!
ReplyDeleteGiants shuffled him out after 4 seasons.
Kingman ended up hitting 447 homers!
If Bryce sticks with the Giants for 8 to 10 years and hits 250 homers over that timeline.
I would be very satisfied!
Richard in Winnipeg
I’m big fan of progressive, not aggressive promotion. People tend to forget that these are really just kids. I don’t mind pushing a mid 30s middle manager up the pipeline until he fails, but these are little more than kids. I’d rather let them spend a year being a monster at A ball rather than push them to question their skills with amid season A+ promotion. Not tmention,consistent monster stats buildtrade value. /PH
ReplyDeleteA moment away from Bryce for maybe a Giant head scratcher from MLBTR:
ReplyDelete"The Giants have signed right-hander Rowan Wick to a one-year major league deal, the team announced. The agreement includes a club option for 2027. Wick is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is not expected to pitch this season. Jason Foley has been placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move..."
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/san-francisco-giants
He had 1½ good MLB years in 2019-2020 and was effective for 2 years in Japan (2024-2025).
And then his arm fell off. Or something.
The argument is, after paying him not to play in 2026, SF has an option on 2027, at a "reasonable" 2-year price to see what they got...
McCovey Chronicles buys into it, Buster and Zack obviously do, so why shouldn't we?
For one thing, there might not be a 2027.
The question is whether he ends up being Buster Posey or Matt Williams. My money would be on Matty. I don't think he has the seasoning that buster did, or the intellect. I might be wrong. But remember Williams when he was given the starting gig in 89. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteBryce Eldridge is a completely different type of hitter than Buster Posey. Not sure about Matt Williams. If we're really, really lucky, maybe a lefthanded version of another 6' 7" hitter, Aaron Judge but likely with lower BA's. Maybe somewhere between Judge and Dave Kingman, which would be very awesome.
DeleteIn the 2013 draft the Giants passed on Judge in the first round. They chose SS Christian Arroyo instead. What a miss that was.
DeleteTo be honest, if he ends up being anywhere near Dave Kingman, I would be very upset. I can't imagine that sort of skill set would equate to winning, overall.
DeleteAre you kidding? If Kingman was playing today and and able to DH, he would be uber-valuable. Well, maybe on uber-valuable but at least Pete Alonso valuable which would be a pretty darn good outcome for our man, Eldridge.
Delete....and I would add that I see Dave Kingman as being the worst case scenario for Eldridge.
DeleteDave kingman had 442 career home runs and a lot of strikeouts. 442!
DeleteAnd by all accounts he had a horrible attitude and was an atrocious fielder. There are some who believe he could have been a HoF er if he would have been a dh and had a better attitude. He had amazing power but I wonder if he ever realized his true potential-something was wrong or someone with that kind of talent would not have bounced around to so many teams. The comparison to Bryce is the power and the height- Kingman was 6’6”. I think Bryce has a chance to be much better than Kingman-better contact skills, better attitude and better fielder - he’ll find a position somewhere. He had a really good 2025 season and batttled a bad wrist all year. Really glad they didn’t trade him and hope they are patient with him.
All teams whiffed on Aaron Judge but what is galling is that he went to Fresno State which is close by. It’s like they did not do their due diligence.
DeleteEldridge has a pretty short and quick swing for a hitter his size and doesn’t appear to have to swing from the heels to hit the ball with velocity and distance. Just dreaming a bit here but if he can pick up some tips from Arraez he could be a good hitter with over the fence power to all fields.
ReplyDeleteAgree with this commenter that these days there's a ton of talk about the importance and projectability of swing velocity and exit velocity. At an age way, way below the average age for any of his levels so far, Eldritch has shown the type of raw tools that are not only heralded, but are unlikely to miss.
DeleteThe last component is "intangibles" like poise as the pressure ramps up. At this point, Bryce is at max pressure now and going forward: He's a top-10 MLB prospect type of profile and caught all the national hype last year for good reason. Now, he's probably the difference between a mediocre and playoff-competitive team at the MLB level in the Dodgers division, and he's 21 years old. A dominant full season in AAA would be an incredible disappointment! Lol.
But anyways, the good news for me is Bryce has shown time and again that baseball is his happy place, and he's a bit of a savant. Watching him, I think he's got that thing that other hitters since Buster just haven't had...
The "IT" factor. Kid has it.
Cheers all.
SF Fan in Michigan
I agree that Eldridge's stat lines and trajectory point to a special talent and I think he needs to play in the majors sooner than later. I'm just trying to be realistic about what to expect from him in a rookie season and the need to be patient. And I agree a full season in AAA is not going to make that rookie season any easier and will just delay his development into a superstar.
DeleteI'd like to see Eldridge play in the majors soon also if they play him regularly. Would Devers and Eldridge split playing time between 1st base and DH. Has Eldridge improved enough defensively at 1st base.it sounds interesting that they are having him work in the outfield too, might give him another option to get in the lineup.
DeleteI assume the plan is to have Devers and Eldridge split 1B/DH.
DeleteJust want to point out that Aaron Judge was 24 when he broke into the Majors with the Yankees. That's like asking if you think Bruce Eldritch needs another 3 years in the minors to figure out everything they can teach down there.
ReplyDeleteGreat time to be a Prospect lover, because this is feeling more and more like 2008 + 2009 just as Cain, Lincecum, Wilson, Romo and Bumgarner all arrived at once it seemed.
If it comes to pass, this time it will be the positional players leading the way instead of ace pitchers.
...Eeeexcellent.