Saturday, February 4, 2017

Blogger's Note

I will be away at a meeting for the next week.  I may be able to write up a few posts, but internet connections my be iffy so bear with me.  I will be back to regular posting next Saturday, Feb. 11.


  1. I don't pay for ESPN Insider anymore (reasons). But I saw a blurb while ignoring the half-time show:

    "Quinn, San Francisco's third-round pick in 2016, has the kind of tools that the Giants love, Keith Law writes. The outfielder's all-fields approach could get him to Double-A in his first full pro season."

    I just thought that was a heck of thing to say though I didn't (obviously) read the article. And he did make it to San Jose by the end of the year though he wasn't there long...

    Anyway, it's kind of nice when someone like Law (who is reasonably well respected) says something like that about Giants prospect as, over the past few years, it's been 'Giants farm system? lol...'

    1. Yeah, I think Keith Law had the Giants farm system ranked all they way up at 20 which sneaks them into the middle 3'rd. While he is not high on the top 2 guys, Arroyo and Beede, he acknowledges depth in the system and says they have a lot of prospects who could break out in the future.(at least that is my interpretation of comments he's made in Q/A's on his blog.

  2. Apropos of nothing, Gary Brown and Fred Lewis both played (some) for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs last year. Lewis at 35 did slightly better.
    Brown, with his 3 for 7 stint with the Giants in 2014, did better in the MLB than he did in any stint in his entire (MiLB) career!
    Sure hope not too many of our promising OF prospects (8 in DrB's top 30) suffer the Brown syndrome, but some will. Which ones?
    Including the LF contest this spring, SF is going to need 3 new OFers in the next 3 years.
    Signing of Nick Hundley makes a LOT of sense looking at the "C's" in the pipeline, although he doesn't bring much in the way of plus skills.
    Doc, do you agree with the Doug Latta school of getting the ball in the air? Is this part of your favoring high GB/FB pitching?
    Good artical on fangraphs:

    1. There is more than one way to succeed both for hitters and pitchers but a basic principle is that a groundball has no chance of becoming a HR, while HR/FB tends to regress to a mean.

      On the other hand, flyball pitchers tend to have lower BABIP's because flyballs that don't leave the park tend to all get caught for outs.

      I tend to rank pitching prospects in this order:

      1. High K's, high groundballs.

      2. High K's, high flyballs.

      3. Low K's, high groundballs.

      4. Low K's, high flyballs.

      #4 is generally no bueno for a pitching prospect.

      Most hitters should try to elevate batted balls to give themselves more chances at HR's. The exception would be a small guy with no power, but who can run fast. A guy with that profile is probably better off putting the ball on the ground and trusting his speed and the BABIP gods.

    2. Thanks, that makes a lot of sense: a guy that strikes out isn't going anywhere and if he doesn't strike out, make him hit it on the ground.
      Can you quantify high K and GB rates?
      Obviously 9K/9 and 2:1 are high, and mucho bueno. 8 is close, is 7K/9 "high"?
      Is 1.5:1 a high groundball rate?

    3. K/9=9 is really the benchmark for pitchers. 7 or above is OK, especially at the MLB level where K's are much harder to come by.

      Most stat purists measure GB%. I've never really gotten used to that metric. GO/AO has been shows to be a pretty good approximation of GB% so I just go ahead and use that. 2 or above is dominant. 1.5-2.0 is very good. 1.2-1.5 is pretty good.

      Those are my rules of thumb.