Tuesday, January 31, 2017

DrB's 2017 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 8

Jeffry Parra C.  DOB:  1/24/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 195 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 24.

2016 R:  .275/.370/.375, 2B, HR, 6.5 BB%, 14.8 K%, 46 PA.

Nice start for later round HS draftee.  Tiny sample size, though.  Sleeper.

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Cody Brickhouse C.  DOB:  12/23/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2015 Round 15.

.271/.417/.292, 18.0 BB%, 14.8 K%, 61 PA.

In 129 pro PA's, Brickhouse has a BB% of 18.8.  He can take a walk.  No pop in the bat despite his jumbo size for a catcher.

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Mike Bernal 2B.  DOB:  9/6/1992.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 29.

2016 R:  .260/.337/.473, 11 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 6.4 BB%, 25.4 K%, 173 PA.

Nice pop in pro debut but rookie ball at age 23 is not where he wants to start.

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Mikey Edie OF.  DOB:  7/3/1997.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.  International FA

2016 R:  .217/.287/.280, 10 SB, 5.0 BB%, 27.5 K%.

Not ready to give up on Edie just yet, but man, 2016 was a rough season for him!

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Will Albertson C.  DOB:  6/26/1994.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 21.

2016 R:  .213/.245/.277, 2.0 BB%, 14.3 K%, 49 PA.

Put up video game numbers for a very small college program so we'll give him the benefit of the small sample size doubt here.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Thoughts on MLB Punishment of Cardinals

The sordid story of the hacking of the Houston Astros computer network by St Louis Cardinals employee, Chris Correa, appears to have come to the end, or maybe it hasn't.  The perpetrator, former Cardinals Scouting Director, Chris Correa, was long ago sentenced to 46 months in prison for his role, but that was only the criminal side of the case.  There were also damages to assess and today MLB gave the Cardinals their punishment:  $2 M and the Cardinals first 2 remaining draft picks for 2017, #'s 56 and 75 overall.

Many analysts feel the Cardinals got off light and the punishment should have included a first round draft pick.  First of all, I don't in any way condone the actions of Chris Correa.  I think his prison sentence is a bit long for the crime, but his lifetime ban from employment in MLB is not.  I have to say it is still not clear to me what Correa was looking for except he seems to have realized he was over his head and and he needed the opinions of his former colleagues to do his job, which was evaluate prospects.  If Correa used that information to, say, draft a prospect he knew the Astros wanted and thus "stole" that player from them, then there may have been tangible damages.  We don't know if that happened.

Picks #56 and 75 are not first rounders by any stretch, but the Giants landed Bryan Reynolds and Heath Quinn with similar level picks last draft and we are all quite happy they did.  Those picks not only give the Astros a bigger signing bonus pool, they give them access to two players who may well go on to be valuable MLB players.  So, the Astros made out well, IMO.

One thing I question is how fair is this to other teams not involved in the incident.  In particular the other teams in the AL West cannot be happy that the Astros, who have built a very strong core team, have access to even more talent.  I mean, how would you as a Giants fan feel if the Dodgers suddenly had 2 extra high round draft picks because someone from another organization hacked their computer?  For this reason, I believe the proper punishment/restitution would have been for the Cardinals to simply forfeit the draft picks and the Astros receive only money.  It would have to be more than $2 M, of course, but the money would be less damaging to the other teams in the AL and particularly the AL West.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

DrB's 2017 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 7

Garrett Williams LHP.  DOB:  9/15/1994.  6'1", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 7.

2016 R:  1-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 3.86 BB/9, 6.43 K/9.
2016 SS:  1-2, 5.68, 25.1 IP, 4.97 BB/9, 7.82 K/9.

It's almost like a broken record, or in today's vernacular a GIF.  Once highly touted prospect whose stocked dropped due to control problems.  The Giants LOVE these guys!  Williams has been on scouting radars since he dominated Little League World Series competition at the age of 12.  Scouts love his low-mid 90's FB and his wipeout curveball, but he struggled with control to the point where he pitched very little in college due to his wildness.  The Giants will definitely give him a chance to work that out.  Although his walk rates had room for improvement in his pro debut, they were not impossibly bad. I would say the relatively low K rate is almost more worrisome, but the Giants may have ordered him pitch to contact at all costs as they did with Tyler Beede.  A lot of analysts have him in the Giants top 20 but I want to see him actually pitch well before I jump on his bandwagon.

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Patrick Ruotolo RHP.  DOB:  1/15/1992.  5'10", 218 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 27.

2016 R:  0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 0.00 BB/9, 12.60 K/9.
2016 SS:  2-2, 1.42, 19 IP, 6.63 BB/9, 17.60 K/9, 4 Saves.

Ruotolo is kind of the opposite of Garrett Williams.  Low round draft pick who performed well, albeit in a small sample size and a high walk rate of his own.  Giants seem to have started him out on the Closer Track, not necessarily a good thing, IMO.

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Conner Menez, LHP.  DOB:  5/29/1995.  6'3", 195 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 14.

2016 R:  2-0, 2.57, 21.0 IP, 1.71 BB/9, 11.14 K/9.
2016 SS:  0-1, 7.20, 5 IP, 1.80 BB/9, 7.20 K/9.
2016 A+:  2-0, 4.94, 27.1 IP, 3.62 BB/9, 6.59 K/9.

Good sized lefty held his own after a promotion all the way to San Jose.  Is that where he will start 2017?

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Chris Falwell LHP.  DOB:  4/14/1995.  6'7", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 16.

2016 R:  3-1, 2.73, 33 IP, 3.27 BB/9, 5.45 K/9.

Good results in rookie ball but with unimpressive K and BB rates.  Also a college draftee in rookie ball is by definition unimpressive.

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Jose Layer OF.  DOB:  5/28/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 160 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 13.

2016 R:  .283/.356/.377, 5 2B, 8.2 BB%, 11.5 K%, 61 PA.

The Giants have drafted 2-3 Puerto Rican HS prospects every draft for several years now.  Most have not made it out of rookie ball.  Layer may be one of the exceptions as he hit well with impressive peripherals in his pro debut.  Toolsy kid who seems like he may have some skills to go with the tools.  Sleeper!

Hot Stove Update: Royals Sign Brandon Moss

Brandon Moss 1B/OF/DH.  DOB:  9/16/1983.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 180 lbs.

2016 Cardinals:  .225/.300/.484, 19 2B, 2 3B, 28 HR, 8.4 BB%, 30.4 K%, 464 PA, fWAR 1.4.

We are entering the bargain basement phase of the Hot Stove League season.  The Royals may have scored a major bargain in Brandon Moss with a 2 year/$12 M contract.  Moss is reputed, possible unfairly, to be a fairly one-dimensional or 3-true-outcomes player who walks a lot, strikes out a lot, has a low BA, but hits a lot of dingers and is a liability on defense.  It may come as a surprise, then, that at least by UZR defensive metrics, he is actually a slightly above average corner OF and much better than Jorge Soler, the guy who is currently penciled in as the Royals starting RF.

Moss' market was probably depressed by a late season collapse last year in which he hit just .099 in September/October.  Were it not for that terrible slump, he likely would have put up an fWAR of over 2.0.  His overall stat line was very close to career averages for him as he has averaged 28 HR's per 600 PA's and his career slash line is .241/.319/.455 so I would not put a lot of stock in last year's September slump.  In fact, I have thought that Moss might have made a nice addition for LF for the Giants next season!

With Alex Gordon manning LF and Eric Hosmer at 1B, Moss will likely either play RF with Soler DH'ing or DH with Soler playing RF.  By UZR, Moss is actually the better defensive RF and it's not that close.  The Royals could also platoon Moss and Soler and sign another slugger like Chris Carter to DH.

Very nice bargain pickup for the KC Royals.

DrB's 2017 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 6

The Hot Stove has quieted down again so we'll keep plodding along with our prospect profiles.

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Ryan Kirby 1B.  DOB:  1/25/1995.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 180 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 12.

2016 SS:  .260/.345/.398, 16 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 9.9 BB%, 23.0 K%, 223 PA.

Strong walk rate which tends to bring higher K rates.  Doubles power may not be enough for a 1B prospect.

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Woody Edwards OF.  DOB:  4/2/1995.  B- R, T-R.  5'10", 155 lbs.  Drafted 2015 Round 40.

2016 R:  .294/.360/.324, 8 SB, 6.7 BB%, 14.7 K%, 75 PA.
2016 SS:  .269/.387/.269, 2 SB, 16.1 BB%, 22.6 K%, 31 PA.

AKA Roger Edwards.  Slap and dash scrapper with no pop.  Hanging around for 2 seasons after being drafted in the 40'th round is an accomplishment in itself.

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Victor Concepcion, RHP.  DOB:  DOB:  11/23/1996.  6'0", 170 lbs.  International FA.

2016 SS:  4-7, 6.40, 57.2 IP, 3.75 BB/9, 7.18 K/9.

Salem-Keizer was an aggressive assignment after 2 seasons in the DSL, but the numbers are still disappointing.

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Kendry Melo, RHP.  DOB:  1/7/1994.  6'3", 210 lbs.  International FA.

2016 SS:  4-1, 4.99, 39.2 IP, 5.45 BB/9, 9.98 K/9.

Another international pitcher who was older at the time of signing.  Melo has size and strikeout stuff.  Needs to get his walk rates down.  Sleeper.

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Rayan Hernandez RHP.  DOB:  9/24/1995.  6'4", 230 lbs.  Drafted 2013 Round 34.

2016 SS:  0-3, 2.78, 35.2 IP, 4.04 BB/9, 7.57 K/9

Has pitched well in very small samples since being drafted out of Puerto Rican HS.  Weak peripherals may be holding him back.  Needs to move up to full season ball and do well to not stall out.

Saturday, January 28, 2017

DrB's 2017 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 5

Dominic Mazza LHP.  DOB:  7/29/1994.  6'1", 195 lbs.  Drafted 2015 Round 22.

2016 A:  8-3, 3.93, 84.2 IP, 1.70 BB/9, 8.40 K/9.

Polished college lefty with nice K/BB but a bit too hittable in a pitcher's league.

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Cesar Yanez RHP.  DOB:  9/30/1994.  6'5", 175 lbs.  International FA.

2016 SS:  1-0, 0.60, 15 IP, 4.20 BB/9, 9.60 K/9.
2016 A:  0-0, 4.05, 13.1 IP, 5.40 BB/9, 11.83 K/9.

Intriguing size and K/9 with apparent oodles  of room to fill out.  Needs to get the walks under control. One of my big sleepers in the system.

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Ashford Fulmer OF.  DOB:  6/29/1993.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2015 Round 28.

2016 SS:  .292/.396/.396, 12 2B, 3 3B, HR, 12 SB, 11.2 BB/9, 17.8 K/9, 241 PA.
2016 A:  .077/.186/.115, 8.5 BB%, 35.6 K%, 59 PA.

Late round college draftee joins a fairly long list of hitting prospects who washed out of Augusta to hit much better in Salem-Keizer.  Most of those prospects have gone on to do well at higher levels, so while it is not an ideal path, it is not the end of the line either.

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Brandon Van Horn SS.  DOB:  12/18/1993.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 175 lbs.  Drafted 2016 Round 19.

2016 R:  .231/.328/.310, 7 2B, 2 3B, 5 SB, 12.7 BB%, 24.9 K%, 189 PA.
2016 SS:  .286/.375/.714, HR, 12.5 BB%, 12.5 K%, 8 PA.

Reputation as a slick fielding SS.  Looks like he has some plate discipline.  Nice size for a real SS.  Could be a sleeper.

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John Riley C.  DOB:  2/14/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2013 Round 31.

2016 SS:  .274/.369/.404, 10 2B, 3 HR, 8.9 BB%, 30.4 K%, 168 PA.

Drafted as a HS catcher and signed with a bonus out of proportion to his draft position, Riley has developed slowly.  Moved back to catcher for 2016 he hit well for S-K but still K'd a whole lot.  Light tower power, but will it ever be usable?

Friday, January 27, 2017

Dr B's 2017 Giants Top 50 Prospects: Honorable Mention Part 4

Logan Webb RHP.  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'2", 195 lbs.  Drafted in 2014 Round 4.

2016 A:  2-3, 6.21, 42 IP, 2.57 BB/9, 6.93 K/9.

Webb got knocked around pretty good early in the season then we found out why when he went under the TJ knife.  Still young enough to overcome the lost development time.

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Tyler Cyr RHP.  DOB:  5/5/1993.  6'3", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2015 Round 10.

2016 A:  3-3, 2.31, 50.2 IP, 2.84 BB/9, 11.55 K/9.
2016 A+:  2-1, 2.35, 23.0 IP, 3.52 BB/9, 9.39 K/9.

Love the size. Love the K's.  Love the K/BB.  Cyr would not have been out of place in the Top 50.

FB reached 97 while in JC ball.

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Skyler Ewing 1B.  DOB:  8/22/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 220 lbs.  Drafted  2014 Round 6.

2016 A:  .241/.331/.410, 10 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 9.3 BB%, 22.8 K%,

An improvement on his disastrous 2015 campaign, but real old for the level.

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Jake McCasland RHP.  DOB:  9/3/1991.  6'2", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2013 Round 26.

2016 A:  8-5, 1.65, 109.1 IP, 1.98 BB/9, 8.81 K/9.

A late breakout by the guy the Giants drafted twice.  Old, but if he can maintain those numbers in San Jose, he may still be a prospect.

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Michael Connolly RHP.  DOB:  10/31/1991.  6'0", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2013  Round 27.

2016 A:  11-7, 3.05, 135.2 IP, 2.06 BB/9, 7.10 K/9.

Very similar story as McCasland above, except for the drafted twice part.