Saturday, August 16, 2014

Down on the Farm: 8/15/2014

AAA  Oklahoma City Redhawks defeated the Fresno Grizzlies 6-2:

Chris Dominguez(SS)- 1 for 4, HR(20).  BA= .275.

Dominguez makes it 20/20.  Still not sure what to make of Dominguez playing SS, but it sure is intriguing.

AA  Portland Sea Dogs beat the Richmond Flying Squirrels 5-1:

Devin Harris(LF)- 3 for 4.  BA= .261.
Myles Schroder(DH)- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .246.
Tyler LaTorre(Catcher)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .262.

High A  San Jose Giants held off the Stockton Ports 11-10:

Daniel Carbonell(DH)- 1 for 5, HR(1), BB.  BA= .367.
Ryan Lollis(CF)- 3 for 5, HR(1).  BA= .283.
Brian Ragira(1B)- 3 for 4, 2 HR(14), BB.  BA= .245.
Tyler Horan(RF)- 3 for 5, 2B, HR(5).  BA= .289.
Ben Turner(Catcher)- 4 for 4, BB.  BA= .283.
Joe Biagini(RHP)- 6.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 4.23.

This one was not as close as it looked as the Ports scored 7 runs in the 9'th inning, but fell short.  Horan has hit 5 dingers in just 45 AB since being called up to San Jose.

Low A  Asheville Tourists swarmed over the Augusta Greenjackets 10-2:

Will Callaway(3B)- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .321.
Rafael Rodriguez(LF)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .283.

Callaway is having a nice season in Low A ball, but remember he is 24 years old.  RafRod is hitting .425 over his last 10 games.

Short Season  Eugene Emeralds topped the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 5-4:

Seth Harrison(CF)- 2 for 5, 2B, SB(8).  BA= .267.
Christian Arroyo(SS)- 1 for 5, HR(5).  BA= .317.
Ethan Miller(RHP)- 7 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.93.

Rookie AZL  Mariners edged the Giants 2-1:

Michael Santos(RHP)- 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 2.13.

DSL  Giants vs Rojos(Reds) not posted yet at the time of this writing.

Game Wrap 8/15/2014: Phillies 5 Giants 3

The current Giants tend to fall behind early and give up leads late.  Not a good combination!  This game, it was the latter as Jeremy Affeldt messed a clean bed made for him by the brilliant pitching of Madison Bumgarner and a 3 run HR by Michael Morse to cough up a 3-1 lead and ultimately the game.  Key Lines:

Angel Pagan- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= .308.  Pagan has hit on all 7 games since his return from the DL for a .312 clip right about his season average.  He also made a nice sliding catch of a blooper in CF to help Bummy shut down a Phillies' rally.

Pablo Sandoval- 3 for 5, 2B.  BA= .283.  Pablo's salary drive continues!  When  he's in shape, he's one of the best in baseball at the position.  Can he stay in shape for 5 years?

Michael Morse- 1 for 2, HR(16), BB.  BA= .276.  Morse let a soft flyball fall in front of him for a hit earlier in the game that drew the ire of the fans in attendance.  It ended up not costing any runs.  He more than made up for hit with a beautiful 3 run dinger to drive in all of the Giants runs.  For awhile, it looked like it would be enough.  He hit another bomb to Triples Alley that might have travelled farther, but was caught by Marlon Byrd near the warning track.  When Morse's bat is hot, you can tolerate his defense and maybe it's heating up?

Joe Panik- 2 for 4.  BA= .264.  Panik is hitting .389 over his last 10 games.  He needs to move up in the lineup already!  Duvall may have more power, but he's still searching for contact at the MLB level.  Panik's basehits from the 6 hole could keep rallies going a bit longer.  As it is, Panik is hitting in the middle of a reverse donut with Duvall and Crawford providing empty space around him.

Madison Bumgarner- 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K's.  ERA= 3.14.  Bumgarner was on fire.  The Phillies broadcast team was already talking perfect game by the 4'th inning.  Of course that's where it ended.  Bummy was throwing too many pitches for K's on 3-2.  Other than that, it was one of his best pitched games of the year, and he's had some good ones.

Jeremy Affeldt- 1.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 2.05.  I was watching the game and didn't see it, but apparently Affeldt slipped while making the gopher pitch to Cody Asche.  Maybe he did.  I'll have to go look at the video.  Affeldt has been a great Giant, but he does run hot and cold, and he's been cold for a week or two now.  I'll say this though, regardless of whether he slipped or not, or whether it as a hit-me pitch, that ball did not look like a HR coming off the bat.  Asche basically hit a pop-up out of RF at AT&T Park.  That just doesn't happen, especially that time of night.  Gotta think there was some unusual carry there.

The Loss leaves the Giants 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 0.5 games out of the second Wild Card slot.

Tim Hudson takes the mound for an afternoon start facing Kyle Kendrick.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Down on the Farm: 8/14/2014

AAA  Oklahoma City Redhawks defeated the Fresno Grizzlies 7-3:

Gary Brown(CF)- 2 for 4, BB, 2 SB(32).  BA= .271.
Juan Perez(LF)- 2 for 4, HR(4).   BA= .326.
Mike Kickham(LHP)- 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 5 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 4.21.

Anybody else think the Giants could do worse next year than have Brown starting in the OF, either in CF with Pagan moving to LF or just put Brown in LF?  More command issues from Kickham.  I was hoping for more signs of refinement to his game.

AA  Game 1  Richmond Flying Squirrels beat the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6-2:

Kelby Tomlinson(SS)- 2 for 5, SB(45).  BA= .257.
Blake Miller(2B)- 2 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .286.
Jack Snodgrass(LHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K's, GO/AO= 9/3.  BA= 3.45.

I think Blake Miller can hit.

AA  Game 2  Richmond Flying Squirrels edged the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 4-3:

Blake Miller(2B)- 1 for 2, BB.  BA= .297.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- 1 for 3, HR(5).  BA= .240.
Myles Schroder(3B)- 1 for 3, HR(4).  BA= .243.
Chris Stratton(RHP)- 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.85.
Steven Okert(LHP)- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(4).  ERA= 2.81.

High A  Rancho Cucamonga Quakes outlasted the San Jose Giants 3-2 in 13 innings:

Daniel Carbonell(CF)- 2 for 5, BB, SB(2).  BA= .400.
Mitch Delfino(3B)- 2 for 4, 2 BB.  BA= .293.
Tyler Horan(RF-LF)- 1 for 6, HR(4).  BA= .250.
Matt Lujan(LHP)- 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 4.24.
Jorge Bucardo(RHP)- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 4.43.

Carbonell continues to show he can hit.  Delfino does not walk a lot(5%), but he also doesn't strike out a lot(13.2%).  I think he can hit at the next level.  I wish we would see more lines like this from Bucardo.

Low A  Asheville Tourists downed the Augusta Greenjackets 8-2:

Ryan Jones(2B)- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .266.
Rafael Rodriguez(LF)- 2 for 4.  BA= .275.
Will Callaway(3B)- 3 for 3, 2B.  BA= .306.

Short Season  Eugene Emeralds topped the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 1-0:

Seth Harrison(CF)- 1 for 3, BB, SB(7).  BA= .260.
Austin Slater(DH)- 1 for 3, 2B.  BA= .439.
Jason Forjet(RHP)- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K's.  ERA= 3.23.

Forjet's overall season line with the Volcanoes is 6-1, 3.23, 69.2 IP, 12 BB, 74 K's.  Over his last 6 starts he has an amazing 48 K's against just 4 BB's in 36.2 IP.  He and Ethan Miller are dominating the NWL.

Rookie AZL  Angels outscored the Giants 10-4:  NTSH.

DSL  Giants blanked the Orioles2 4-0:

Manuel Geraldo(SS, 17 yo)- 2 for 4, SB(13).  BA= .244.
Deiyerbert Bolivar(LHP, 18 yo)- 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 1.35.
Julio Benitez(RHP, 19 yo)- 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 0.94.

Geraldo is hitting .293 over his last 10 games.  Not sure why the short start for Bolivar.  Rain delay?  Injury?

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Thoughts on Kyle Crick

John Sickels wrote a post on his blog, Minorleagueball, linked to the left by the same title on Tuesday, August 12.  The basic gist of the post is that Sickels still thinks Crick is going to be a good SP in the majors someday as opposed to Closer or setup man as some other analysts have suggested.  Sickels' reasoning is that for a pitcher as young as Crick, the high K rate and velocity trump the high walk rates, which he believes Crick will eventually get under control.  The comments were mostly supportive, but there is still a lot of angst about the walk rates.

The reason I am writing this post is because I think there is strong evidence in the statistics that Crick is adjusting well to AA and actually improving right in front of our eyes.  That evidence is nowhere to be found in Sickels' post or in the Comments section.  One thing I always look for in evaluating prospects in addition to their overall stat lines is if they show adjustment and improvement within the season, especially if their promotion to that level has been aggressive or they are young or inexperienced for the league.

I believe I have mentioned in a couple of Down on the Farm posts that Crick's numbers seem to be getting more consistent with fewer wide swings from game-to-game as the season has progressed.  I just looked up his Splits from his milb.com bio page.  I think you will be pleasantly surprised by the results.

Crick has made exactly 20 starts this season.  His overall pitching line is, what it is, a lots of K's and lots of walks with a slight GB tendency:  6-6, 3.32, 86.2 IP, 55 BB, 104 K's.  One thing that the exactly 20 starts makes easy to see is that Crick is not having as many short starts due to disaster starts or high pitch counts within an inning.  Over his first 10 starts he pitched a total of 39 innings or 3.9 IP per Start.  Over his last 10 starts, he has pitched 47.2 innings or 4.8 IP per start averaging almost 1 extra inning per start.  Now, 4.8 may not seem too good, but the increase of almost a full IP per start does show significant improvement.

The next piece of information showing Crick's progressive improvement over the season is his monthly splits focusing on BB's and K's.  Here they are month-by-month:

April:  14 BB's, 15 K's.
May:   10 BB's, 16 K's.
June:   14 BB's, 29 K's.
July:    14 BB's, 39 K's.
August:  0 BB's, 5 K's(just one August start so far.  His first start of the month was skipped or pushed back due to a back strain).

As you can see, Crick has improved his K/BB each month of the season.

Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn and Adalberto Mejia, all age 21 are young for AA.  Crick, at least, is showing steady progression and maturation as the season goes on, which I believe bodes well for his future even if his overall numbers are not as exciting as we might like them to be.

Scouting the Draft: Early Reads on 2015

The dust has barely cleared from the 2014 amateur draft and the 2015 draft is already starting to come into focus with random names starting to separate themselves into groups and rankings.  BA has an extremely interesting article up about new doppler radar technology that not only measures velocity, but other parameters that might be important to know about prospects such as RPM's on the spin of different pitches and exit velocities of batted balls.  The title of the article is Area Code Game Trackman Leaderboards.  It's free content, so look it up!

Last year was a pretty big year for HS pitching in the draft, but this year's Area Code Games featured more pitchers throwing harder than last year's crop, at least according to Trackman, a military grade 3D doppler radar system that can make 20,000 measurements per second of 27 different variables.

As for raw velocity, the leader was a big LHP named Justin Hooper from Concord, CA who is 6'7", 230 lbs and averaged 93 MPH on the fastball with a peak of 95.9.  The next two were RHP Ashe Russell from Indiana with an average of 92.3 and a peak of 94.2 and RHP Beau Burrows from TX with an average of 91.8 and a peak of 93.9.  There were 8 pitchers who averaged 91 MPH or higher and 15 who peaked at 92.5 or higher.

Now here is the interesting part:  In addition to being #2 in raw velocity, Beau Burrows had the highest measured RPM spin on the FB at 2515.  So what, you say?  Well, there is a pretty strong correlation between spin RPM's and Swinging Strike % as well as flyball tendency.  In D1 baseball, RPM's of less than 2000 result in an Swinging Strike % of 5.00 while RPM's of 2500 or greater result in a Swinging Strike % of 9.10.  In MLB, those numbers are 5.50% for RPM's less than 2000 and 13.40% for RPM's of 2500 or greater.  In addition, RPM's under 2000 result in a GB% of 43.30 while RPM's of 2500 or greater produce a GB% of 37.20.  Just a guess, but I would bet that early in his career, Matt Cain had a pretty astounding RPM on his heater the way he got all this popups.

In additon to Burrows, 2 other pitchers showed 90+ MPH velocity with high RPM's:  Cody Morris of Maryland at 92 and 2420 respectively and Peter Lambert of San Dimas, CA with 90 and 2410.  Drew Finley of Rancho Bernardo, CA showed swing and miss stuff with a FB that went just 89 MPH, but he also generated 2511 RPM's of spin.

What about breaking balls?  Do spin rates tell you something about breaking ball quality?  Well, in D1 college baseball, breaking ball RPM's of 2600+ come with a 13% Swinging Strike rate and a BA of .170 and SLG% of .197.  2300-2600 is 10%/.187/.234 and if the spin rate is under 2300 RPM, those numbers are 8%/.212/.260.  Note particularly the jump in SLG% off slow spinning breaking balls.  The leaders at the Area Code Games were Justin Marsden, WA at 3055, Colton Easton, Fresno, CA at 2942 and Jonathan Hughes, GA at 2789.

Scouts have long talked about a certain sound that comes from the bats of certain hitting prospects when bat meets ball.  Now there may be a way to objectively measure that in exit velocities using the new radar technology.  At the Area Code Games, top exit velocities off batted balls were Michael Hickman, C, TX at 108.9, Garrett Whitely, NY at 108.7 and Luken Baker(who I think is a HS junior this year) at 108.1 MPH.  In addition to Baker and Whitely, 2 other hitters had 2 balls in the top 15, Demi Orimoloye out of Canada who, along with Josh Naylor are really putting Canada on the map in the 2015 draft., and Chris Betts a catching prospect.  Orimoloye had the #6 and #10 positions at 106.9 and 105.6 MPH.

Who has the top measured exit bat speed in the history of such measurements at the Area Code Games?  That would be Stone Garrett from last year at 110.2 MPH.

I will also mention that RH hitter Brandt Stallings out of Georgia, a 6'4", 216 lb corner OF/1B won the PG All-American Classic HR Challenge.

Lots of great 2015 draft stuff out on BA's website right now as free content.  Go check it out!  It's linked over on the left.

Down on the Farm: 8/13/2014

AAA  Fresno Grizzlies defeated the Oklahoma City Redhawks 4-3:

Austin Fleet(RHP)- 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 5.16.
Erik Cordier(RHP)- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(3).  ERA= 3.91.

AA  Richmond Flying Squirrels vs New Hampshire Fisher Cats postponed.

High A  Rancho Cucamonga Quakes edged the San Jose Giants 2-1:

Daniel Carbonell(CF)- 2 for 4, HBP, SB(1).  BA= .400.
Mitch Delfino(3B)- 2 for 5, 3B.  BA= .291.
Nick Vander Tuig(RHP)- 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K's, GO/AO= 13/4.  ERA= 2.12.

Carbonell continues to impress at the plate.  Patience seems to be paying off for Vander Tuig.

Low A  West Virginia Power took a pair from the Augusta Greenjackets by identical scores of 5-3:

Game 1

Ty Ross(Catcher)- 1 for 3, HR(6).  BA= .253
Scott Price(1B)- 2 for 3, 3B.  BA= .667.
Ryan Jones(3B)- 2 for 2, 2B, Sac.  BA= .254.
Luis Ysla(LHP)- 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 2.36.

Game 2

Chris Lofton(RF)- 2 for 2, 2 2B, BB.  BA= .251.
Ray Black(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 3.99.

Short Season  Salem-Keizer Volcanoes topped the Eugene Emeralds 2-1:

Austin Slater(RF)- 1 for 3, BB, SB(4).  BA= .444.
Jose Reyes(RHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 3.75.

Rookie AZL  Game 1  Giants downed the Brewers 4-3:

Chase Compton(1B)- 3 for 4, 2B.  BA= .328.
John Riley(Catcher)- 2 for 2, 2B, BB.  BA= .182.
Sam Coonrold(RHP)- 3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.74.
Stetson Woods(RHP)- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

Woods now has 13 K's against 3 BB's in 9.2 IP.  Very impressive command for a young kid who is 6'8".  SSS, of course.

Rookie AZL Game 2  Giants beat the Brewers 8-2 in 10 innings:

Byron Murray(DH)- 2 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .273.
Chase Compton(1B)- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= .333.
Nataniel Javier(3B)- 2 for 5.  BA= .400.
Tyler Beede(RHP)- 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 0.00.
Rayan Hernandez(RHP)- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 1.99.
Greg Brody(RHP)- 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.98.

Wow!  Look who shows up in Arizona!  Nataniel Javier, a 6 figure bonus baby from last year's DSL squad who struggled last year and was suspended 50 games for a PED bust.  His was about the last name I expected to see in the boxscore!  Getting cautiously excited about Byron Murray.  I like that the Giants are not getting greedy with Beede.  Rayan Hernandez has 8 scoreless appearances in a row with 13 K's against just 2 BB's in 11 IP.  His ERA has dropped from 3.28 to 1.99.

DSL  Orioles2 blanked the Giants 2-0:

Prebito Reyes(LHP, 18 yo)- 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 3.32.

Reyes has allowed 0 ER in his last 3 starts over 17 IP.  He has allowed just 2 runs in his last 5 starts covering 28 IP.  In that span he has 21 K's against just 4 BB's.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Game Wrap 8/13/2014: Giants 7 White Sox 1

A controversial replay decision in the 7'th inning on a play at the plate involving the "Buster Posey Rule" gave the Giants their first run of the game and opened the floodgates for 6 more turned what might have been another close loss into a route for the Giants.  Key Lines:

The Play- With runners at first and third and one out, Joe Panik hit a slow grounder up the first base line.  Jose Abreu charged the ball and threw a strike home beating Gregor Blanco coming down the line by at least 20 feet.  Catcher Tyler Flowers was waiting for Blanco as he tried to slide around him and put the tag on by a good foot in front of the plate. Blanco's hand touched the plate long after the tag was applied.  2 outs, no runs in.  But wait a minute!  Bruce Bochy came out of the dugout and argued that Flowers blocked Blanco's path to the plate before he had the ball and therefore Blanco was safe by the new "Buster Posey Rule."  The replay took seemingly forever with the crew chief umpire clearly engaged in an animated discussion with the replay crew in New York.  Finally, the ruling came through:  Safe!

White Sox Manager Robin Ventura came roaring out of his dugout yelling at the crew chief who immediately signaled Ventura's ejection from the game, after which Ventura proceeded to kick dirt over home plate.  The trailing runner, Adam Duvall was initially awarded 3B, but after another discussion with New York, he was put back at 2B.  Crawford flied out to CF, but then PH Joaquin Arias drew a walk in which the last 2 pitches from White Sox SP Jose Quintana were not at all close and appeared to be delivered awkwardly.  That brought in Ronald Belisario who brought his gas can with him and the Giants scored 6 more runs before the final out of the inning was recorded.  Had the out call on Blanco at the plate stood, the Giants do not score at all in the inning and quite possibly lose the game 1-0.

Here's my take on the call:  The exact language of the rule appears to make it a judgement call by the umpire.  Although Flowers' back foot and leg were in front of home plate before he received the throw, I my judgement, Blanco was still so far away at that point that blocking was a moot issue.  There was nobody there to block!  By the time Blanco did arrive in the vicinity of the plate, Flowers was holding the ball at which time the rule states he is allowed to block the plate.  Were I the replay official, I would have allowed the call on the field to stand and the Giants probably would have lost the game.  But again, it's a judgement call and the replay officials obviously judged it differently.

Jake Peavy- 7 IP, 4 R, 1 R, 3 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.51.  Peavy pitched a great game and finally got a well deserved win, even if it was, ahem, not deserved!  But my goodness!  I remember The Peav from his SD days and he was always a fierce competitor, but I don't remember all the yelling and gesturing and grotesque facial expressions.  Dude, we love the intensity, but tone it down, already!

The Win leaves the Giants 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card slot, pending the outcome of this evening's games.  The Dodgers, Pirates and Cards all hold 2-1 leads as of this writing.

The Giants now get a day off before starting a weekend series against the Phillies.