Scouting the 2020 Draft: Justin Lange

Justin Lange RHP, HS.  6'4", 190 lbs.

Justin Lange is yet another highly projectable pitcher in this draft class.  The frame is classic with plenty of room for added size and strength, which he may have already added.  PG has his FB at 93, but other less reliable reports have him touching triple digits this spring.  He's got a well-coordinated delivery that uses his whole body.  Releases is low 3/4.  Think a lefty version of Madison Bumgarner with a little less extension and a little more elbow action. Brady Singer is another comp that comes to mind.  Fangraphs has an up arrow next to his name at #64.  I don't see him in MLB Pipeline's top 100.

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Question about the impact of draft changes brought on by COVID-19 pandemic from the previous Scouting the 2020 Draft post.  Like Scott Thompson said in his comment, it's very hard to know, especially since new draft rules have yet to be finalized.  I'll offer what thoughts I can.

I think they have to keep the 2020 and 2021 drafts separate as combining them would be just too chaotic from a scouting/ranking standpoint.  It's totally understandable to push it back by a month or two or three until we have more clarity regarding how the pandemic is progressing or hopefully regressing.

As for length of the draft, look, the draft does not need to be 40 rounds.  Just look at the players drafted in rounds 30-40 and you know those rounds are purely for ****'s and giggles anyway.  The other dirty secret of the draft is that somewhere around the 15'th round, most teams aren't drafting potential future MLB'ers but drafting to fill out minor league rosters.  So, cutting the draft down to 5 rounds might be a bit extreme but if the purpose of the draft is competitive balance, that's really all you need, maybe even less!

The most disturbing part of the proposed plan is limiting the bonuses for undrafted free agents to $10 K.  Basically the MLBPA threw amateur players under the bus to free up money to support guys who are already union members.  Understandable, but that does not make it right.  Seems like there must be some avenue for a lawsuit in there somewhere.

As for how these changes might affect draft strategy, I have no idea.  I think you still go for the best player available at each draft slot.  I've never understood why you would take less than the BPA in round 1 where at least half the value of the draft is found, to save money for lesser players later in the draft where success is, at least statistically, a lot less likely.

With the Giants having 5 picks in the top 100 and an extremely deep draft, they have a chance to really turbocharge their farm system.  The system is currently stocked well enough so they can afford to take some HS players who might take longer to develop.  The system is weakest in pitching by a wide margin.  Statistically, the best return from the first round is college hitting so if a great college hitter is available there, I think that's what you take, but I'd like to see at least 3 of the top 5 picks used on pitching which is extraordinarily deep in this class.

Hot Stove League Review: Pirates

The Pirates got off to a stumbling start in the Hot Stove League.  Manager Clint Hurdle was given the boot after the season.  GM Neil Huntington spent a month searching for a replacement only to get the ax himself which then kicked of a GM search.  By the time Ben Cherington was hired to start the rebuild the Hot Stove League was halfway done.  Given all that drama, the resulting moves were not nearly as bad as they could have been.

Free Agents Lost:  Melky Cabrera(OF), Elias Diaz(C), Francisco Liriano(LHP), Steven Baron(C), Corban Joseph(C).

Free Agents Signed:  Jarrod Dyson(OF), Guillermo Heredia(OF), Luke Maile(C), JT Riddle(SS/OF).

Trades:  1.  Traded Starling Marte(OF) to the D'Backs for Liover Peguero(SS) and Brennan Malone(RHP).  2. Traded Dario Agrazal(RHP) to the Tigers for cash.  3.  Traded Parker Markel(RHP) to the Angels for cash.

Waiver Claim:  Sam Howard(LHP) from Rockies.

Minor League Free Agents:  Derek Holland(LHP), Robbie Erlin(LHP), John Ryan Murphy(C), Andrew Susac(C), Charlie Tilson(OF), Socrates Brito(OF), Tom Koehler(RHP- retired), Jake Elmore(SS/OF), Hector Noesi(RHP), Phillip Evans(IF).

Summary:  Pirates are in a rebuild phase.  I don't know too much about Liovar Peguero, but I scouted Brennan Malone for last year's draft and like him a lot.  Lot's of risk for very young pitching prospects, though.  Dyson is a decent short term replacement for Marte.  The lost free agents were all dead wood types.

Grade C.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Bobby Miller

Bobby Miller RHP, College(Louisville).  6'5", 220 lbs.

2018:  6-1, 2.97, 66.2 IP, 21 BB, 55 K.
2019:  7-1, 3.83, 80.0 IP, 38 BB, 86 K.
2020:  2-0, 2.31, 23.1 IP, 9 BB, 34 K.

The pitching in this draft class just keeps getting deeper and deeper.  I don't think I've profiled Bobby Miller before but just noticed him sitting at #21 on the Fangraphs ranking.  He was well regarded as a 2-way player out of HS in 2017.  He's bean strictly a pitcher with Louisville where he has both started  and relieve with more success as a SP.  Big and strong with a classic pitchers body.  Very muscular in the upper legs and butt.  He has long arms with a long backswing and a 3/4 delivery.  FB has been clocked as high as 99 MPH.  Some effort in the delivery but strong enough to maintain velocity deep into games.  Effort sometimes leads to loss of command.  Backs up FB with a sharp slider, a split change and traditional change with lower velocity. MLB Pipeline ranks him at #48.

Blast From The Past: Dusty Rhodes 1954

The scout who signed James Lamar Rhodes to a contract gave him the nickname "Dusty" because "all ballplayers named Rhodes were called Dusty."  The story goes that the day he was signed, Dusty Rhodes played a semipro game in Alabama barefoot because he didn't know he was going to play and left his spikes at home.  He cultivated a reputation for being a country bumpkin in the big city with a taste for nightlife and alcohol.  He later downplayed this part of his life as a self parody for entertainment value.  For more colorful anecdotes of Dusty's off-field exploits, look up his biography on the SABR website.

He was a terrific lefthanded hitter but a terrible outfielder and spent a 7 year MLB career as a 4'th OF/lefthanded bat off the bench.  After struggling in a PH role his first two seasons, he became one of the best PH's in the history of the game.  His career year by a wide margin was 1954.  Here is his batting line for the regular season:

.341/.410/.695, 7 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 12.4 BB%, 12.0 K%, 186 PA.

That success carried over into the World Series in which Rhodes won Game 1 in extra innings with a pop fly HR down the RF line that travelled a little more than 257 feet.  He basically won Game 2 with a bloop single to drive in the tying run and later got up from a knockdown pitch by Early Wynn to hit a bullet of the RF roof as the Giants won the game 3-1.  He got his 4'th and final hit of the series in game 3 with a bases-loaded 2-run single to extend the Giants lead to 3-0 in an eventual 6-2 win.

He continue to enjoy success in a part-time/bench role in 1955 but his career tailed off after that.  After spending a very successful year in the AAA PCL in 1958, he played one season for the San Francisco Giants in 1959 exclusively as a PH.

Spring Training Update: Giants Release 17 Players

The Giants cleaned out some of their spring training logjam from both their major and minor league camps.  When and if spring training resumes, the focus will be on getting quickly determining the Opening Day rosters and getting players in shape to start the season.  These guys were not going to be in that mix, but let's give them a tip of the cap for a noble effort.

Jerry Blevins LHP- maybe a bit of a surprise but Jarlin Garcia and Wandy Peralta are also veteran lefties who were much more impressive in the early camp and have more potential longterm value.

Matt Carasiti RHP- Impressive in early camp but underwent TJ surgery.

Brandon Guyer OF- Strictly a RH platoon option, his exit ticket was probably punched when the Giants signed Hunter Pence. They also have Joey Rickard who can play that role quite well.

Minor leaguers released include Jamie Callahan(RHP), Israel Cruz(RHP), Dylan Davis(RHP), Logan Harasta(RHP), Trevor Horn(RHP), Andy Rohloff(RHP), Ben Strahm(RHP), Deiyerbert Bolivar(LHP), Chris Corbett(C), Kyle McPherson(2B), Gio Brusa(OF), Mikey Edie(OF), Jose Layer(OF), Randy Norris(OF).

No real surprises in this list.

Hot Stove League Review: Cubs

The Cubs are in a really weird place.  They still have the core of the 2016 World Series Champion team in place.  Unlike the Giants, their core is still extremely productive.  The complementary pieces they have brought in over the years?  Not so much.  On top of that, their owner, Tom Ricketts, seems to have developed a sudden allergy to spending 1 cent more than the first CBT threshold.  So Theo Epstein spent the entire Hot Stove League season getting outbid on players who were supposed to be "value" acquisitions.  Let's break it down:

Free Agents Lost:  Cole Hamels(LHP), Nick Castellanos(OF), Steve Cishek(RHP), Brandon Kintzler(RHP), Pedro Strop(RHP), David Phelps(RHP), Derek Holland(LHP), Kendall Graveman(RHP), Tony Barnette(RHP), Ben Zobrist(UT), Addison Russell(SS).

Free Agents Signed:  Steven Souza(OF), Ryan Tepera(RHP), Jeremy Jeffress(RHP), Dan Winkler(RHP).

Trades:  Acquired Jharel Cotton(RHP) from the A's for cash considerations.  Acquired Alfonso Rivas(1B) from the A's for Tony Kemp(OF).  Acquired Casey Sadler(RHP) from the Dodgers for Clayton Daniel(IF), Acquired Travis Lakins(RHP) from the Red Sox for a PTBNL or cash(later lost on a waiver claim).

Rule 5 Draft:  Trevor Megill RHP(Padres).

Minor League Free Agent Signings:  Jason Kipnis(2B), Brandon Morrow(RHP), Hernan Perez(IF), Josh Phegley(C), Tyler Olson(LHP), Jason Adam(RHP), Ian Miller(OF), Carlos Asuaje(IF), Danny Hultzen(LHP), Rex Brothers(LHP), Noel Cuevas(OF), Corban Joseph(C).

Summary:  The Cubs may well get breakout seasons from Ian Happ(CF) and Nico Hoerner(2B) and make everybody forget their pathetic Hot Stove campaign, but they are still stuck with a rapidly aging  and thin rotation and with not much behind Craig Kimbrel, who is aging himself, in the bullpen.  Theo found himself diving way deeper into the dumpster than Farhan Zaidi and that's really saying something!

Grade F!

Blast from the Past: Mueller and Mays 1954

The main thing most baseball and even Giants fans know about the 1954 season is The Catch and the Giants sweeping a favored Indians team in the World Series.  There was more to the Giants 1954 season than The Catch though. By 1954 many of the stars from the 1951 team such as Al Dark, Monte Irvin, Wes Westrum, Whitey Lockman, Larry Jansen and Sal Maglie were still around but on the downside of their careers.  Johnny Antonelli(LHP) RIP, who we've already profiled, was an addition who had a career year on the pitching side.  Don Mueller and Willie Mays were also holdovers from 1951 but were now the stars of the team and a fascinating subplot to the season was their race for the batting title.

Don Mueller was the son of Walter, a reserve OF for the Pirates.  Walter taught young Don how to hit by pitching corn kernels which he swung at with a broomstick.  As a result, he developed tremendous eye-hand coordination and bat-to-ball skills.  He became the ultimate contact hitter albeit with virtually no power.  Sportswriters were impressed by his seeming ability to punch groundballs through holes in the infield and dubbed him Mandrake the Magician, and I have no idea where that name came from or what it meant.  Unfortunately, this seemingly unique ability was a mirage of BABIP luck.  Mueller almost never struck out, but he also almost never walked making him uniquely BABIP dependent which is why his career ebbed and flowed with his BABIP luck.

Willie Mays was Willie Mays.  He was already a star from the spark he gave the Giants in 1951.  He was coming back from a 2 year hiatus in the army and big expectations awaited him in New York.  I've read that Giants Manager Leo Durocher made up a song to the tune of Take Me Out To The Ballgame counting down the number of days Willie had left in the army and when the Giants would have him back.  There was no comparison between Mays and Mueller's overall production at the plate.  Mays not only hit for average, he hit for power.  He struck out a lot more than Mueller but he also drew a whole lot more walks giving him strong OBP's too.

Willie Mays had an MVP season in 1954 leading the league in BA, triples, SLG% and OPS.  Mueller's campaign paled in comparison except for BA.  He and Willie staged a season long friendly battle for the highest BA, AKA Batting Title.  Mueller outhit Willie for the first 3 months of the season with BA's of .306, .391 and .353 to Willie's .254, .374 and .314.  On May 2 in a doubleheader,  Mueller went 5 for 5 in game 2 with a double and triple a feat which was overshadowed when Stan Musial became the first major leaguer to hit 5 HR's in one day.  Mueller hit for the cycle on July 1, but July was his only month with BA under .300 at .297. He followed that up with .318 in August.  Meanwhile, Willie Mays hit .330 in July and .385 in August to take the lead in the batting race.  They came down to the final day of the regular season tied.  Mueller went 2 for 6 while Mays went 3 for 4 to win it with a .345 BA to Mueller's .342.  Mueller finished with the most hits at 212.  Don Mueller hit .389 in the World Series with 7 singles in 18 AB  while Mays hit .289, but The Catch will be what fans will alway remember about the 1954 World Series.

*Biographical information for this post found in Don Mueller's SABR biography and stats are taken from Baseball Reference.