Friday, July 3, 2015

Scouting the International Signees

July 2 marks the beginning of a new international signing period for young baseball players who do not live in the United States, Puerto Rico or Canada and who have turned 16 years old after a certain date.  This year's talent pool was pumped up by several Cuban players older than 16 and by an 18 year old who had attended HS in the U.S., but moved back to the Bahamas to gain eligibility for international signing.

In the last Collective Bargaining Agreement, limits were placed on spending for international players, but the penalties for exceeding those limits were not severe enough to keep up with the tremendous influx of revenue that most MLB teams now have.  A new strategy has emerged for international spending, started by the Yankees a couple of years ago.  Sign as many international player for as much as you have to and just accept the penalties:  1.  A 100% financial penalty for any money spent above the pool limit.  2.  Spending for the next two cycles limited to $300 K per player.  As more teams used this strategy, it became impossible to ever sign a top talent if your team adhered to the spending limits every cycle.  What a mess!  Another caveat to this mess is that most agreements between players and teams occur long before the signings are announced on July 2.  That left teams like the Giants who were on the fence, out of the running for most of the players in the pool who were going to command bonuses of more than $1 M.

That HS player who moved back to the Bahamas?  That would be Lucious Fox, a switch-hitting SS with plus-plus speed.  The Giants saw a chance to sign him away from the Dodgers who seemed to be the team that had a bead on him.  Yesterday, the Giant landed him for $6 M which is approximately $4 M over their bonus pool limit.  When penalties are added in, they will spend approximately $10 M on his bonus and will be limited to players they can sign for $300 K or less for the next 2 seasons, unless the rules change again, which seems like it's about a 50/50 bet.  Even if an international draft is instituted next season, it seems likely that teams who blew past their bonus pools will still be penalized by loss of draft picks.  Personally, I am going to trust that the Giants did their homework on the bonus rules and penalties and did not rush into this position only as a reaction to what the Dodgers and other teams were doing.  Instead, I'll focus on what Fox brings to the organization.

Lucious Fox, like I said earlier, is 18 years old.  He's a switch-hitting HS SS with plus-plus speed.  One scouting report said he might have the best tools in the entire international pool this year.  Scouting reports from early in the draft cycle which placed him in the #30-50 range of prospects may be misleading in that he has grown considerably since those reports were filed.  A year ago, Fox was listed at 6'1", 160 lbs.  Since then he has grown 1" and bulked up by 15 lbs.  Recent video, available over at Fangraphs July 2 Sortable Board, compiled by Kiley McDaniel, shows him to be well muscled across the upper chest and shoulders.  His 60 time is listed as 6.5 or under which is at least 70 speed.  At the plate, he has a relatively simple swing.  I try to concentrate on the front foot and hands.  He takes a 4-6" slide step forward with the front foot. No big leg kick.  There is slight pre-pitch bat waggle, but he keeps his hands very close to hitting position so there is no big load or hand movement as the pitch is being delivered.  The swing is quick with a level to minimally uppercut path to the ball.  Kiley McDaniel seems to think his arm has gotten better with the added strength and thinks he has a chance to stick at SS.  If not, he can almost certainly move to 2B and has the speed to play CF, so he is a legitimate up-the-middle talent.

I am not convinced that he is a rare enough talent to stake 3 years of international signings on, but he is a significant addition to the Giants growing stable of "tools" players which include Johneshwy Fargas, Gustavo Cabrera, Kelvin Beltre, Jalen Miller, Mikey Edie and now Fox.  I think international signing rules prevent him from playing in games this season, unless there are exceptions for players older than 16 years old.

The Giants, as expected, also signed a 16 year old Venezuelan catcher named Ricardo Genoves for 550 K.  He reportedly is already skilled at receiving high velocity pitching.  Beyond that, I have nothing more on him except he seems to have a projectable frame at 6'1", 180 lbs which is consistent with pictures I've seen, unlike Pablo Sandoval who was listed at 5'11", 180 lbs but was obviously way heavier from the get-go.

Down on the Farm: 7/2/2015

AAA  Sacramento River Cats thumped the Salt Lake City Bees 10-4:

Kelby Tomlinson(2B)- 2 for 4, SB(1).  BA= .258.
Mac Williamson(RF)- 4 for 4, 2B, HR(1), BB, Assist(2B).  BA= .321.
Ty Blach(LHP)- 6.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.26.
Steven Okert(LHP)- 1.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 4.18.

Tomlinson and Williamson got off to slow starts in AA, but Kelby had a solid game here and Mac just went off.  Raised his BA by over 100 points.  Showed off his power and his arm.

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AA  Richmond Flying Squirrels blanked the Harrisburg Senators 2-0:

Rando Moreno(SS)- 2 for 4.  BA= .310.
Kelvin Marte(LHP)- 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.39.
Derek Law(RHP)- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's, Save(2).  ERA= 1.80.

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High A  San Jose Giants defeated the Stockton Ports 7-3:

Christian Arroyo(SS)- 2 for 4, HR(4), BB.  BA= .333.
Angel Villalona(1B)- 2 for 5, 2 HR(2).  BA= .280.
Ryder Jones(3B)- 2 for 5.  BA= .289.
Daniel Carbonell(LF)- 3 for 5, 2B, 3B, SB(2).  BA= .370.
Ray Black(RHP)- 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 2.35.

Arroyo is 9 for 12 with 2 HR's over his last 3 games.  Could be a candidate for BA's hot sheet?  The Giants are apparently serious about stretching Ray Black out and making him a starter.  Villalona and Carbonell are trying to find some footing to spring back to higher levels from.

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Low A  Augusta Greenjackets vs Savannah Sand Gnats postponed.

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Short Season  Boise Hawks topped the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 6-4:

Ronnie Jebavy(CF)- 4 for 5, SB(3).  BA= .267.
Chris Shaw(1B)- 2 for 5, HR(1).  BA= .250.

Jebavy bounces back from some rough games.   Shaw hits his first professional HR.

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Rookie AZL  Giants edged out the D'Backs 7-6:

Jalen Miller(SS)- 3 for 4, 2B, BB, SB(3).  BA= .440.
Nathanael Javier(3B)- 2 for 4.  BA= .243.
Julio Benitez(RHP)- 2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.25.
Kendry Melo(RHP)- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.50.
Tyler Cyr(RHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.00.
Matthew Pope(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(1).  ERA= 0.00.

Miller might be another Hot Sheet candidate.  What a great start to his pro career he is off to?

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DSL  Giants beat the Rockies 4-0:

Mecky Coronado(LF, 18 yo)- 2 for 3, 2B, SF.  BA= .435.
Jose Patino(CF, 17 yo)- 2 for 4.  BA= .229.
Raffi Vizcaino(RHP, 19 yo)- 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 1.15.

Vizcaino had just 2 IP last year after a decent pro debut in 2013 at age 17 so he is apparently coming off an injury?

Game Wrap 7/2/2015: Marlins 5 Giants 4

The number 3 was not good for the Giants in this series:  3 days, 3 games, 3 3-run HR's, 3 losses.  3 very similar games all of which seemed like they were winnable for the Giants.  Instead, they start a tough road trip with 3 losses.  Key Lines:

Gregor Blanco- 2 for 4, HR(2), HBP.  BA= .318.  Blanco has picked up right where Nori Aoki left off and credits Aoki with helping him with his swing.  Blanco continues to put up WAR points at a pace of a little over 3/600 PA's.

Joe Panik- 2 for 4, 2B, BB.  BA= .316.  Coming into today's game, Panik had a 3.2-2.9 lead on Dee Gordon in NL 2B fWAR.  That lead got bigger in this game.  Panik certainly has a case to be the starting NL 2B in the All-Star Game.

Buster Posey- 1 for 3, HR(13), SF.  BA= .304.  Buster played 1B the day after coming out of a game after taking a foul tip off the mask. He showed no signs of a concussion in his offensive line here.

Brandon Belt- 2 for 4, SB(4).  BA= .268.  Belt is obviously working on his speed game as he transitions to becoming an outfielder.

Matt Cain- 5 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K's, GO/AO= 8/1.  ERA= 9.00.  Cain's line looked OK after 4 innings but a HR by the opposing pitcher and a 3-run dinger later, things did not look as good.  Hopefully this is something to build on.  His FB reportedly topped out at 91 MPH.

With the Loss, the Giants fell to 3 games behind the idle Dodgers in the NL West and 1.5 games behind the Cubs in the race for the final Wild Card playoff spot.

The Giants now move on to Washington to face the Nationals for the first time since last year's NLDS series.  Think the Nationals might feel like they have something to prove?  Jake Peavy comes off the DL to face Gio Gonzalez in game 1.

Thursday, July 2, 2015

Down on the Farm: 7/1/2015

AAA  Sacramento River Cats outlasted the Salt Lake City Bees 4-3 in 15 innings:

Kevin Frandsen(3B)- 3 for 7, 2B, BB.  BA= .313.
Adam Duvall(1B)- 4 for 8, 2B.  BA= .262.
Trevor Brown(Catcher)- 2 for 6.  BA= .283.
Mac Williamson(DH)- 2 for 7.  BA= .208.
Jack Snodgrass(LHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 3.45.
Brett Bochy(RHP)- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 4.30.
Erik Cordier(RHP)- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 1.61.

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AA  Harrisburg Senators outscored the Richmond Flying Squirrels 6-5 in 13 innings:

Rando Moreno(SS)- 3 for 4, HR(1), BB, Sac, SB(6).  BA= .306.
Hunter Cole(RF)- 2 for 6, 2B.  BA= .467.
Austin Slater(2B)- 3 for 5, 2B, BB.  BA= .250.
Joan Gregorio(RHP)- 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 4.18.
Kyle Crick(RHP)- 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 3.16.

Moreno seems to be having a breakout season.  More of the same from Crick out of the bullpen.  Very alarming!

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High A  Stockton Ports defeated the San Jose Giants 6-3:

Christian Arroyo(SS)- 2 for 3, 2B, HR(3), BB.  BA= .329.

Arroyo is on fire!

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Low A  Augusta Greenjackets beat the Savannah Sand Gnats 5-2:

Jeremy Sy(SS)- 2 for 4, 2 2B, HBP, SB(11).  BA= .245.
Jonah Arenado(3B)- 2 for 3, Sac.  BA= .269.
DJ Snelton(LHP)- 7 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K's.  ERA= 3.42.

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Short Season  Salem-Keizer Volcanoes topped the Boise Hawks 7-5:

Julio Pena(RF)- 2 for 4, 3B, Sac.  BA= .267.
Ryan Halstead(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 0.00.

Halstead is a guy who could move up the closer track fast.

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Rookie AZL  Reds beat the Giants 5-2:

Mark Weist(3B)- 1 for 4, HR(1).  BA= .250.
Ashford Fulmer(RF)- 2 for 3, BB.  BA= .231.
Dylan Brooks(RHP)- 4 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K's, GO/AO= 4/0.  ERA= 3.75.
Mac Marshall(LHP)- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 0.00.

Weist and Marshall make their pro debuts.

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DSL  Mariners1 downed the Giants 3-2 in 11 innings:

Francisco Medina(3B, 17 yo)- 1 for 3, HR(6), BB.  BA= .264.
Luis Amaya(LHP, 16 yo)- 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 1.10.

I do not recall a 17 yo Giants prospect showing this kind of early power before.  He's not a big body type either.  Very athletic and wiry looking frame.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Game Wrap 7/1/2015: Marlins 6 Giants 5

A walkoff 3 run HR off the bat of Justin Bour snatched away a Win the Giants appeared to have safely tucked away.  Key Lines:

Angel Pagan- 2 for 5.  BA= .266.  Pagan showed some signs of life.

Joe Panik- 2 for 5.  BA= .314.  Panik continued to pepper the field with hits.

Matt Duffy- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= .300.  The top 3 batters went 6 for 15 for a BA and OBP of .400.

Buster Posey- 1 for 2.  BA= .304.  Buster took a foul tip square to the jaw area of the face mask.  He initially stayed in game but then came out after things didn't feel quite right.  He reportedly passed his initial concussion tests.

Brandon Belt- 1 for 3, 2B, SF, SB(3).  BA= .265.  Belt getting it going on a consistent basis would be nice.

Brandon Crawford- 1 for 4, HR(11).  BA= .270.  Crawford's dinger was an impressive blast in that the wall where it left the park is approximately 400 ft from home plate and it cleared by a healthy margin.

Gregor Blanco- 3 for 4.  BA= .314.  Blanco reportedly has struck up a friendship with Nori Aoki and credits Aoki with helping him with his swing and approach at the plate.  It appears to be paying off.

Chris Heston- 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K, GO/AO= 11/1.  ERA= 3.78.  Hesto Presto didn't have the strikeout stuff and had a bit of a wild hair, but 4 big GIDP's kept him in this one.

Hunter Strickland- 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 2.55.  Strickland seems to be settling in as a reliable MLB reliever.  The way Casilla is going, he may need to move into more of a high stress role.

Santiago Casilla- 0.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 0 K.  ERA= 3.03.  It often takes Casilla a batter or two to find his command.  The first two batters got basehits because Casilla could not find the strike zone and had to groove pitches.  That brought up Bour, who is basically good for just one thing, hitting dingers and he did just that for a walk-off 3 run job that was a crusher.

The Loss will likely leave the Giants 2.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

Matt Cain makes his long awaited 2015 debut facing an equally long awaited Jose Fernandez in an afternoon contest tomorrow to try to salvage one game out of the series.

Down on the Farm: 6/30/2015

AAA  Sacramento River Cats defeated the Salt Lake City Bees 4-0:

Nik Turley(LHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K's.  ERA= 5.45.
Cody Hall(RHP)- 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.97.

Turley has run very hot and cold, but now has 3 consecutive QS's with just 2 runs allowed in 18.1 IP with an 18/4 K/BB.

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AA  Harrisburg Senators beat the Richmond Flying Squirrels 2-0:

Hunter Cole(OF)- 2 for 4, 3B.  BA= .556.
Tyler Beede(RHP)- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 5 K's, GO/AO= 11/1.  ERA= 4.15.

Cole continues his hot hitting in AA.  Beede allowed 3 of his 5 hits in the first inning.  He got out of 2 jams with GIDP's.

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High A:  San Jose Giants topped the Stockton Ports 6-3:

Christian Arroyo(SS)- 5 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .321.
Angel Villalona(1B)- 3 for 5, 2B.  BA= .250.
Brian Ragira(LF)- 2 for 2, 2B.  BA= .219.
Daniel Carbonell(LF-RF)- 2 for 5.  BA= .316.
Jeff Kobernus(RF-2B)- 3 for 5.  BA= .273.
Tommy Hanson(RHP)- 5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 2.12.
Jake Smith(RHP)- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's, Save(1).  ERA= 2.63.

This Arroyo kid can hit!  Angel V moves down to try to get his bat going.  Another nice start for Tommy Hanson who is on the comeback trail.

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Low A  Augusta Greenjackets blanked the Savannah Sand Gnats 6-0:

Aramis Garcia(Catcher)- 3 for 4, 2B, HR(8), BB.  BA= .245.
Dylan Davis(RF)- 1 for 3, HR(2), BB.  BA= .233.
Sam Coonrod(RHP)- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 2.63.
Rodolfo Martinez(RHP)- 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 3.20.
Dusten Knight(RHP)- 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 1.60.

Garcia's bat has really come alive lately.  He hit .282 for the month of June and .341 over his last 10 games.  Martinez continues to not walk batters.

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Short Season  Spokane Indians outscored Salem-Keizer 9-7:

Steven Duggar(RF)- 2 for 3, HR(1), HBP.  BA= .429.
Fernando Pujadas(Catcher)- 1 for 4, HR(2).  BA= .267.
Shilo McCall(LF)- 2 for 3, 3B, HBP.  BA= .267.
Nolan Riggs(RHP)- 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 0.00.
Eric Sim(RHP)- 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 4.76.

I think this Nolan Riggs may be a major sleeper in the system.  Big guy at 6'8".  Putting up some nice numbers in a SSS this summer.

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Rookie AZL  Giants downed the Reds 4-0:

Jalen Miller(SS)- 2 for 4.  BA= .381.
Dillon Dobson(2B)- 2 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .773.
Jordan Johnson(RHP)- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 1.50.
Luis Pino(RHP)- 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 1.84.

Miller is off to a hot start to his pro career.  Looking great as a 3'rd round draft pick.

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DSL  Giants pounded the Mariners1  8-1:

Manuel Geraldo(2B, 18 yo)- 2 for 5, 2 SB(12).  BA= .346.
Jose Riveno(SS, 17 yo)- 2 for 5, SB(3).  BA= .200.
Sandro Fabian(RF, 17 yo)- 4 for 5, 2B.  BA= .265.
Robinson Medrano(1B)- 3 for 5, 2B.  BA= .359.
Jose Morles(Catcher, 20 yo)- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .200.
Sandro Cabrera(LHP, 20 yo)- 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 2.81.

The DSL Giants record stands at 20-7.  They have some older prospects but also quite a few 17 year olds who are looking good so far.

Game Wrap 6/30/2015: Marlins 5 Giants 3

Maybe Buster Posey has figured out how to beat jet lag as he was the only Giant to not look like he was sleepwalking through a game that seemed to be frustratingly winnable.  Key Lines:

Buster Posey- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(1).  BA= .303.  When Buster gets hot, he can carry a team for awhile.  The load was a bit too heavy in this one.

Ryan Vogelsong- 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 4.19.  Vogey's command was off through the first 3 innings and he appeared to be really angry at something through much of that time, whether that was himself or the umpire or something else was not clear.  The big blow came in the second inning when Dee Gordon split the OF's for a 3 run, inside-the-park HR that I have to admit was kind of fun to watch.  At least it would have been if you were a Marlins fan.  Vogey did settle down and get the game to the bullpen in the 7'th with a chance to win.  The bullpen allowed an insurance run and the Giants offense was not able to mount another significant rally.

The Loss left the Giants 1.5 games behind the NL West leading Dodgers who beat the D'Backs 6-4.  The Giants lead in the race for the second Wild Card playoff slot by 0.5 games over the Cubs.  If the season ended yesterday, the NL playoff configuration would be identical to last season.

Chris Heston tries to square the series tonight facing Dan Haren.