Right now, I'm obsessed with fantasy auction values and how to build a roster on a budget. I've always believed in having strong pitching in fantasy baseball. Fortunately, I've been more successful in finding good pitchers than good hitters. One strategy I have used with quite a bit of success is to fill my bench with starting pitchers and use it as a rotation extender. With 5 starters, 5 bench spots and 2 P spots, I have to potential to have a 12 man pitching rotation. Since there are no innings limits in H2H and a staff of strikeout pitchers, I can pretty much guarantee a W in the K column every week. I let W's, ERA and WHIP take care of themselves after that. It's hard to beat a small rotation that has a great week and runs up and ERA of under 3. On the other hand, with so many innings, on bad start does not sink your week. You have the innings to buffer it.
With $260 to spend on a 26 man roster including bench players, you could budget as much as $120 on those 12 pitchers, but then you would probably get badly outbid on the offensive side of the ledger and would not have anything left for closers/Saves. So, the challenge here is to build a 12 man rotation while not spending more than $10 on any 1 pitcher. What kind of a rotation would you end up with and would it be competitive? I'll use the Average Yahoo Price as my cost and last year's stat line as my results just to keep it quick and dirty.
1. Brandon Beachy, ATL. $8.7 141.2 IP, 7 W, 169 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP Should be a starter all year which would add to the K and W totals.
2. Jordan Zimmerman, Wash. $6.9. 161.1 IP, 8 W, 124 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. No innings limit this year.
3 Cory Luebke, SD. $6.4. 139.2 IP, 6 W, 154 K's, 3.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. Innings should rise here too.
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle. $5.4. 188.1 IP, 10 W, 180 K, 4.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. Ubaldo's velocity is reportedly looking good. Still has the strong K/9. Good candidate for bounceback and a great risk at this price.
5. Ervin Santana, LAA. $3.3. 228.2 IP, 11 W, 178 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP. Very underrated fantasy pitcher. I got him late in last year's draft and he was solid all year. Even gave me a no-no one week! At $3.3 he's a huge bargain.
6. Derek Holland, Tex. $2.2. 198 IP, 16 W, 162 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. I don't usually chase Wins, but at $2.2, it's worth the risk and he can be tremendous in any given week.
7. Bud Norris, HOU. $1.3. 186 IP, 176 K, 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP. Great source of K's and learning to control his great stuff.
8. Scott Baker, Min. $1.2. 134.2 IP, 8 W, 123 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. Very solid numbers from an established pitcher. Appears to be healthy and should be good for more IP.
9. Henderson Alvarez, TOR. $1.2. 63.2 IP, 1 W, 40 K, 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. There was a very convincing article in Fangraphs about a month ago on how high velocity + low walk rates = pitching success. Alvarez has extreme groundball rates to boot. He won't be a K stud, but but when you carry 12 starters, you don't necessarily need every one to have a high K rate. Based on that article, I'll take a chance on a $1-2 investment for my 9'th starter.
10. Juan Nicasio, Col. $-. 71.2 IP, 4 W, 58 K, 4.14 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Nicasio was the other guy mentioned in the Fangraphs article. He suffered a fearsome injury on a comebacker last year, but appears to be fully recovered this spring. Isn't even being drafted in most leagues.
11. Eric Bedard, Pit. $1.1. 129.1 IP, 5 W, 125 K's, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Bedard is a poor bet to stay healthy, but if he does, he'll likely put up very good numbers. If he gets injured again, so what? I didn't spend much on him and can replace him from the FA market.
12. Hector Noesi, Sea. $-. 56.1 IP, 2 W, 45 K's, 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP. The forgotten man in the Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade. Had pretty good peripheral numbers in NY and the ERA should drop by close to a full run with the move to Seattle. Don't be at all surprised if he puts up better numbers than Pineda this year.
Rounding up to the closest $, I've spent a total of $43 on a 12 man starting rotation that should win K's most weeks and be competitive in the other SP categories. I can afford to go higher on some of the bids. I might even be able to splurge on a couple of higher priced pitchers in the $15 range like MadBum. This frees up substantial $$ to spend on closers and offense. Hey, I might even try to outbid somebody for Matt Kemp!
What do you think of my budget rotation?
Showing posts with label Major League Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Major League Baseball. Show all posts
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Monday, February 13, 2012
Hot Stove Update: A's Sign Yeonis Cespedes. Wait! What?
Billy Beane is one of the more polarizing figures in major league baseball, which may or may not be his fault. On the one hand, he has a dwindling crowd of worshipful followers who think he is the smartest GM in baseball, who continues to battle the odds with virtually no money to work with, and who almost never makes a bad decision. On the other hand, there is a growing cadre of skeptics who see his dogmas as being increasingly discredited and his decisions increasingly erratic. While the truth probably lies somewhere in between, I have to say I lean heavily to the latter view.
Yeonis Cespedes embodies virtually everything Billy Beane should stay away from if you subscribe to any notion of him having a coherent philosophy of how to build a team. I can almost see Billy sparring with his scouts in the movie Moneyball:
Scout: He's a five tool player. Billy: Can he hit?
Scout: Look at this scouting video! Billy: He's not actually playing any games in it!
Scout: He's the best looking player I've ever seen. Billy: We're not selling jeans here!
Billy Beane just spent the better part of this offseason dumping players who could help the A's win over the next few years for prospects who will likely be not up to full speed as major leaguers much sooner than 4 years from now. He seemed to be looking ahead to yet another "window" when he could create a perfect storm of talent that might have a chance to win it all before being dismantled for the next "window" another 4 or 5 years into the future. Then he goes out at signs a guy who is the antithesis of everything Moneyball is purported to be about....to a 4 year contract no less!
Look, Cespedes may turn out to be a great player. After all, he does have the tools for it. The problem is, even if he does, Billy Beane just got through decimating his team in exchange for a chance to win AFTER Cespedes contract runs it's course! The probability, based on everything I've read and the experience of other Cubans who have come to MLB, is that Cespedes is way overhyped and overvalued. I mean, there is just no way that Cuban defectors have been an undervalued commodity over the years and Cespedes certainly does not look like a guy who is going to break the pattern.
If someone has an explanation of how this is Billy Beane thinking on a higher level than the rest of us mere mortals, I'd love to hear it. Bring it on!
Yeonis Cespedes embodies virtually everything Billy Beane should stay away from if you subscribe to any notion of him having a coherent philosophy of how to build a team. I can almost see Billy sparring with his scouts in the movie Moneyball:
Scout: He's a five tool player. Billy: Can he hit?
Scout: Look at this scouting video! Billy: He's not actually playing any games in it!
Scout: He's the best looking player I've ever seen. Billy: We're not selling jeans here!
Billy Beane just spent the better part of this offseason dumping players who could help the A's win over the next few years for prospects who will likely be not up to full speed as major leaguers much sooner than 4 years from now. He seemed to be looking ahead to yet another "window" when he could create a perfect storm of talent that might have a chance to win it all before being dismantled for the next "window" another 4 or 5 years into the future. Then he goes out at signs a guy who is the antithesis of everything Moneyball is purported to be about....to a 4 year contract no less!
Look, Cespedes may turn out to be a great player. After all, he does have the tools for it. The problem is, even if he does, Billy Beane just got through decimating his team in exchange for a chance to win AFTER Cespedes contract runs it's course! The probability, based on everything I've read and the experience of other Cubans who have come to MLB, is that Cespedes is way overhyped and overvalued. I mean, there is just no way that Cuban defectors have been an undervalued commodity over the years and Cespedes certainly does not look like a guy who is going to break the pattern.
If someone has an explanation of how this is Billy Beane thinking on a higher level than the rest of us mere mortals, I'd love to hear it. Bring it on!
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Hot Stove Update: Angels Jump Out of the Weeds to Grab Pujols
You had to figure that the Angels were lying in the weeds for Albert Pujols. There's always a team out there that surprises everybody with a massive free agent signing. More often than not, it's the Angels. What is somewhat shocking, if you believe the stories, is how fast it all went down after over a year of dancing around with the Cardinals and a month of the Marlins throwing dust in the air. Apparently the Angels made just one offer....yesterday! Even they expected Pujols and his agent to ruminate on the offer a few days and get back to them. Instead, they got a phone call this morning saying Pujols had ACCEPTED THE OFFER! Bam! Done deal!
It seems Pujols had come to the feeling that the Cardinals organization was taking him for granted. Maybe they were a bit too quick and too enthusiastic about re-signing Matt Holiday. Maybe their offers lacked an air of sincerity. As for the Marlins, it was pretty easy to see through what THEY are all about when they were unwilling to include a no-trade clause in the contract. I mean, you don't sign Albert Pujols to a 10 year contract unless you intend that he's going to retire with your uniform on his back, and clearly that is not what the Marlins had in mind.
It's also pretty easy to see what Arte Moreno is doing here. His game plan is to put as much of his brand on the LA market as he can before the Dodgers get a new owner and start signing these kinds of contracts right and left. I mean, do you have any doubt that if Magic Johnson has anything to say about it, the Dodgers will be building their team around the superstar model? It's now pretty clear why Tony Reagins got canned in Anaheim. It's not because Mike Scioscia didn't like him. It's not because he made a horrible trade for Vernon Wells. It's not even because he traded away Mike Napoli. It's because he failed to sign Adrian Beltre! I remember reading somewhere that Arte Moreno was annoyed that Beltre was allowed to slip away to the Rangers after a long, public courtship by the Angels. It's pretty clear now that Moreno had Pujols in his sights and simply didn't trust Reagins to get the job done.
What's hard to see is how Jerry DiPoto just woke up yesterday morning and said to himself, "now what should I do with myself today? Hey, I know! I think I'll make Albert Pujols an offer." The Angels had to have had Pujols in their sites all along. Maybe even for more than a year! This is not the first time the Angels have pulled a deal like this. They had to have had a game plan and been monitoring the situation very closely. In the end, I'm betting it was the simple no muss, no fuss sincerity of the offer that appealed to Albert Pujols: 10 years, $250 M, no trade clause, simple, nice round numbers, elegant, with not a hint of hesitation or insincerity.
As free agents go, Albert Pujols is a blue chip as they come. Right now, it's pretty hard to argue that he isn't worth every penny of $25 M/year. Even in an off year for him in 2011, he put up 5.1 WAR, which is worth right about $25 M. The problem is that Pujols is 32 years old come January, and that's if you are not a Pujols "birther". The contract is for 10 years. There might be someone out there who thinks Albert Pujols will still be putting up 5 WAR seasons at age 40, but I know I'm not one of them. To the sharp eyed observer, evidence of the decline is already there: BA's over the last 4 seasons- .357, .327, .312, .299. OBP's- .462, .443, .414, .366. SLG%- .653, .658, .596, .541. WAR- 9.0, 9.1, 7.5, 5.1. After 7 consecutive season in which his lowest WAR was 8.2, he has had 2 consecutive regressions. Gotta wonder, as he enter his mid-30's, if maybe he has already entered the downward phase of his career. This contract was destined to end badly based on length and age alone. If Pujols has already started the downhill slide, it could easily end up almost Zitonian in dreadfulness. Of course, that's not a problem for me since it's the Angels. On the other hand, bad contracts don't seem to be the hinderence to the Angels that they are to some teams.
Almost lost in the hubub of the Pujols signing, the Angels also snatched up CJ Wilson to a $77 M contract. Wilson is no better than the # 3 starter for the Angels, maybe #4, but signing him ripped the heart out of the hated Rangers rotation, and I'm sure that was a motivating factor too. By acquiring Joe Nathan, the Rangers freed up Neftali Feliz to move to the rotation. I'm not convinced that Feliz will thrive in that role. Their rotation is now Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Feliz and a couple of stiffs. Maybe Martin Perez is almost ready, but you sure can't tell it from his stats. The problem for the Rangers is they have their own window of opportunity that may not stay open long and the cupboard for free agent pitchers is now officially bare.
I'll say it one more time: The Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!
It seems Pujols had come to the feeling that the Cardinals organization was taking him for granted. Maybe they were a bit too quick and too enthusiastic about re-signing Matt Holiday. Maybe their offers lacked an air of sincerity. As for the Marlins, it was pretty easy to see through what THEY are all about when they were unwilling to include a no-trade clause in the contract. I mean, you don't sign Albert Pujols to a 10 year contract unless you intend that he's going to retire with your uniform on his back, and clearly that is not what the Marlins had in mind.
It's also pretty easy to see what Arte Moreno is doing here. His game plan is to put as much of his brand on the LA market as he can before the Dodgers get a new owner and start signing these kinds of contracts right and left. I mean, do you have any doubt that if Magic Johnson has anything to say about it, the Dodgers will be building their team around the superstar model? It's now pretty clear why Tony Reagins got canned in Anaheim. It's not because Mike Scioscia didn't like him. It's not because he made a horrible trade for Vernon Wells. It's not even because he traded away Mike Napoli. It's because he failed to sign Adrian Beltre! I remember reading somewhere that Arte Moreno was annoyed that Beltre was allowed to slip away to the Rangers after a long, public courtship by the Angels. It's pretty clear now that Moreno had Pujols in his sights and simply didn't trust Reagins to get the job done.
What's hard to see is how Jerry DiPoto just woke up yesterday morning and said to himself, "now what should I do with myself today? Hey, I know! I think I'll make Albert Pujols an offer." The Angels had to have had Pujols in their sites all along. Maybe even for more than a year! This is not the first time the Angels have pulled a deal like this. They had to have had a game plan and been monitoring the situation very closely. In the end, I'm betting it was the simple no muss, no fuss sincerity of the offer that appealed to Albert Pujols: 10 years, $250 M, no trade clause, simple, nice round numbers, elegant, with not a hint of hesitation or insincerity.
As free agents go, Albert Pujols is a blue chip as they come. Right now, it's pretty hard to argue that he isn't worth every penny of $25 M/year. Even in an off year for him in 2011, he put up 5.1 WAR, which is worth right about $25 M. The problem is that Pujols is 32 years old come January, and that's if you are not a Pujols "birther". The contract is for 10 years. There might be someone out there who thinks Albert Pujols will still be putting up 5 WAR seasons at age 40, but I know I'm not one of them. To the sharp eyed observer, evidence of the decline is already there: BA's over the last 4 seasons- .357, .327, .312, .299. OBP's- .462, .443, .414, .366. SLG%- .653, .658, .596, .541. WAR- 9.0, 9.1, 7.5, 5.1. After 7 consecutive season in which his lowest WAR was 8.2, he has had 2 consecutive regressions. Gotta wonder, as he enter his mid-30's, if maybe he has already entered the downward phase of his career. This contract was destined to end badly based on length and age alone. If Pujols has already started the downhill slide, it could easily end up almost Zitonian in dreadfulness. Of course, that's not a problem for me since it's the Angels. On the other hand, bad contracts don't seem to be the hinderence to the Angels that they are to some teams.
Almost lost in the hubub of the Pujols signing, the Angels also snatched up CJ Wilson to a $77 M contract. Wilson is no better than the # 3 starter for the Angels, maybe #4, but signing him ripped the heart out of the hated Rangers rotation, and I'm sure that was a motivating factor too. By acquiring Joe Nathan, the Rangers freed up Neftali Feliz to move to the rotation. I'm not convinced that Feliz will thrive in that role. Their rotation is now Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Feliz and a couple of stiffs. Maybe Martin Perez is almost ready, but you sure can't tell it from his stats. The problem for the Rangers is they have their own window of opportunity that may not stay open long and the cupboard for free agent pitchers is now officially bare.
I'll say it one more time: The Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball!
Monday, December 5, 2011
Hot Stove Update: Jose Reyes to the Marlins
As Giants fans are all too aware, the Florida Marlins have had a boom and bust business model ever since they became a franchise. They splurge on high priced free agents, put together a run to a championship followed by the inevitable fire sale and years of last place finishes. It looks like they are up to their old tricks again.
Last night it was widely reported that the Marlins have agreed to terms Jose Reyes on a 6 year/$106 M deal. This is actually a very reasonable deal for a player of Reyes caliber. Compared to Jayson Werth's contract signed with the Nationals last year, it's an absolute steal. Reyes has been a consistent 6 WAR player when fully healthy. He missed almost all of one season to injury out of the last 6 and still managed to put up a 0.8 WAR in just 36 games. Hampered by injuries in 2010, he still put up a 3 WAR season. Current market value/WAR right now is right around $5M, so you can see that short of an catastrophic injury that takes him out for a full season, the value is more than there. I believe that of the "big 3" free agents from this year, Reyes has the best chance of delivering full value over the course of his contract.
The signing sets up some drama for the Marlins. Their biggest star, Hanley Ramirez has not been a happy camper and this will force him off shortstop. Early indications are Hanley will play 3B and has agreed to the move, but stay tuned. Assuming everything falls into place, the Marlins now have one of the more dynamic lineups in the game anchored by Reyes and Ramirez and also including Mike Stanton, one of the best young power hitters in the game as well as Logan Morrison, assuming he can keep his mouth and Twitter from getting him in trouble with the owner. Gaby Sanchez is no slouch at 1B either. The Marlins still have issues with their pitching, but seem to be intent on addressing that with the rumored signing of Heath Bell. They probably need to add a starter or two if they are going to make a serious run in 2012. While there are still pieces that need to fit together, the basic value the Marlins get from Reyes is solid.
Losing Reyes has to be a big blow to Mets fans. How can a team based in New York with a state of the art stadium not hang onto a lynchpin like Reyes. Shortstop is not like first base or any other position. You can't just go out and find a cheaper replacement that will come close to Reyes' production. The Mets now have to join the scrum fighting over the dregs of the shortstop bargain bin or rush Jordany Valdespin to the majors before he is really ready.
Reyes would have been a perfect fit for the Giants too. Much as I like Brandon Crawford, he will never be anywhere near Jose Reyes' production level, nor is it likely any of the Giants current SS prospects will either. Signing Reyes, would have not just takne care of the position for years to come, but given them a huge advantage at the position taking pressure off other positions for offensive production.
Much as I think Reyes would have been a bargain, I understand the Giants are in a position where they will have to spend similar money,and more to keep their excellent core of young talent intact, a goal I certainly support. Jose Reyes and the Giants and Mets shortstop situations do point up the need for organizations to be constantly searching for young shortstop talent, not just to find that one big star, but to keep a flow of talent coming as hedge to what just happened to the Mets.
Last night it was widely reported that the Marlins have agreed to terms Jose Reyes on a 6 year/$106 M deal. This is actually a very reasonable deal for a player of Reyes caliber. Compared to Jayson Werth's contract signed with the Nationals last year, it's an absolute steal. Reyes has been a consistent 6 WAR player when fully healthy. He missed almost all of one season to injury out of the last 6 and still managed to put up a 0.8 WAR in just 36 games. Hampered by injuries in 2010, he still put up a 3 WAR season. Current market value/WAR right now is right around $5M, so you can see that short of an catastrophic injury that takes him out for a full season, the value is more than there. I believe that of the "big 3" free agents from this year, Reyes has the best chance of delivering full value over the course of his contract.
The signing sets up some drama for the Marlins. Their biggest star, Hanley Ramirez has not been a happy camper and this will force him off shortstop. Early indications are Hanley will play 3B and has agreed to the move, but stay tuned. Assuming everything falls into place, the Marlins now have one of the more dynamic lineups in the game anchored by Reyes and Ramirez and also including Mike Stanton, one of the best young power hitters in the game as well as Logan Morrison, assuming he can keep his mouth and Twitter from getting him in trouble with the owner. Gaby Sanchez is no slouch at 1B either. The Marlins still have issues with their pitching, but seem to be intent on addressing that with the rumored signing of Heath Bell. They probably need to add a starter or two if they are going to make a serious run in 2012. While there are still pieces that need to fit together, the basic value the Marlins get from Reyes is solid.
Losing Reyes has to be a big blow to Mets fans. How can a team based in New York with a state of the art stadium not hang onto a lynchpin like Reyes. Shortstop is not like first base or any other position. You can't just go out and find a cheaper replacement that will come close to Reyes' production. The Mets now have to join the scrum fighting over the dregs of the shortstop bargain bin or rush Jordany Valdespin to the majors before he is really ready.
Reyes would have been a perfect fit for the Giants too. Much as I like Brandon Crawford, he will never be anywhere near Jose Reyes' production level, nor is it likely any of the Giants current SS prospects will either. Signing Reyes, would have not just takne care of the position for years to come, but given them a huge advantage at the position taking pressure off other positions for offensive production.
Much as I think Reyes would have been a bargain, I understand the Giants are in a position where they will have to spend similar money,and more to keep their excellent core of young talent intact, a goal I certainly support. Jose Reyes and the Giants and Mets shortstop situations do point up the need for organizations to be constantly searching for young shortstop talent, not just to find that one big star, but to keep a flow of talent coming as hedge to what just happened to the Mets.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Movie Review: Moneyball
Perhaps no single work in the history of baseball changed the way fans relate to a sport than Moneyball, a book written by Michael Lewis almost 10 years ago now. Sure, there were a few fans who poured over stat pages looking for things other fans didn't see or care about, but they were few and far between. Before Moneyball, things like scouting and drafting, things General Managers oversee, were held to be the purview of only a select group of shaman's who had special insight into these things. GM's and scouts were the untouchable, unknowable prophets, seers and medicine men of sport. The rest of us could only stare at stat sheets and dream. Moneyball changed all that. It pierced that sacred bubble and allowed for the idea that you actually could scout players from a stat sheet. Add in the sudden ease with which you could find these stat pages on the internet, throw in the explosion of interest in fantasy baseball and you had a perfect storm. Suddenly millions of fans started to not only believe they could be GM's but that they probably knew more about how to identify good players than the GM of the team they root for! It was almost insanely empowering.
Moneyball, the movie, may well be a great way for a non-baseball fan to become better acquainted with the game and it's inner workings. For a fan who has literally lived through the changes that Moneyball brought to being a fan, well, you had to have a pretty strong feeling it would be anti-climactic long before you went to see it. I found Moneyball to be better than what I had anticipated, but then, I wasn't really expecting much.
The movie opens with the Oakland A's losing the final game of the 2001 ALDS to the New York Yankees followed by the realization that they would be losing their best player to those same Yankees for a price the A's could not afford to pay. GM Billy Beane realizes he can't compete with that disparity in financial resources by continuing to evaluate players in the same way all other GM's did. There's a fascinating confrontation with his scouting staff during which the scouts speak in scout speak: "The ball jumps off his bat." "He's a 5 tool player." "He has tremendous upside." "He has a great feel for the game." Billy asks them one question. "...But can he hit?" You see, Billy himself was once a 5 tool player and had heard all those same cliches about himself. The film flashes back to those days.
The scene moves to the offices of the Cleveland Indians where Billy tries to make a trade for Indians reliever Ricardo Rincon, a scene that likely never happened in real life. Beane notices that every time Indians GM Mark Shapiro seems to be about to agree on a deal, he glances over at a quiet fat kid standing by the door. Heads shake, gestures are made and Shapiro backs away from the deal. As a frustrated Billy walks out of Shapiro's office, he hunts down this fat kid in his cubicle and demands to know exactly what happened in there. The kid is frustrated himself. He walks out to the parking garage with Billy and pours his heart out. He explains how his statistical model contradicts what most GM's and scouts believe to be true about the game. He is looking for a chance to put his own theories to the test.
Beane gets back to Oakland and the first thing he does is hire the kid away from the Indians and makes him his Assistant GM, much to the annoyance of the scouts and his manager, Art Howe. Here the movie takes an almost Karate Kid turn with the fat kid(named in the movie Peter Brand, but actually a mashup of the real life Paul DePodesta and JP Ricciardi) playing the teacher and Beane playing the student. They emerge from this tutorial with a plan that the scouts and Howe absolutely hate. They will sign 3 undervalued players who all have an OBP of .360 or higher which they have determined mathematically will make up for the lost, much more expensive, players. Beane pays a late night visit to Scott Hatteberg in his home and in a touching scene offers to resurrect his career as a first baseman even though Hatteberg has never played first base and doesn't know if he can.
The start of the season brings a battle of wills between Beane and manager Art Howe over what players to put on the field. The theme is not unlike the battles internet Giants fans had this last year with Bruce Bochy and his lineups. Beane finally settles the argument by trading the players Howe was insisting on playing so he couldn't play them anymore! The climax of the movie was the historic 20 game winning streak and another playoff berth accomplished with the players Billy wanted on the field.
The movie should have ended there, in my opinion. The A's were eventually eliminated from the playoffs, this time by another small market team, the Minnesota Twins. Billy gets interviewed for and offered the GM job in Boston for many times the amount of money he could ever make in Oakland. There are some touching scenes between Billy and his daughter. There was a funny video clip of obese catching prospect Jeremy Brown rounding first base and diving back on a ball that was actually a home run, but otherwise had nothing at all to do with the story. There are a lot of scenes of Billy(Brad Pitt) sitting alone holding his head in his hands. The movie just loses momentum and focus in the last half hour and I started to get restless.
There is some Oscar buzz around Moneyball and Brad Pitt. I don't go to many movies these days, so don't have much to compare it to, but I would not give it any Oscar votes. The closest I would come to an Oscar nomination would be the fat dude who played the Assistant GM. He was great the whole way through. Brad Pitt did a good job of playing Billy Beane. He even almost made you forget he is Brad Pitt and think he is really Billy, but he's Brad Pitt after all and the dirctor just couldn't help himself from avoiding the poses and the cliched scenes of Pitt sitting alone holding his head in his hands.
Some fans of the book will be disappointed that the draft room scene is completely left out of the movie. Think about it though, there was really no way to include the draft room in the movie because the Moneyball draft did not really turn out all that well! Overall, I'd give the movie a marginal thumbs up. The first 3/4 was very good, though not great. The last 30 minutes were a drag and kind of ruined it for me.
Moneyball, the movie, may well be a great way for a non-baseball fan to become better acquainted with the game and it's inner workings. For a fan who has literally lived through the changes that Moneyball brought to being a fan, well, you had to have a pretty strong feeling it would be anti-climactic long before you went to see it. I found Moneyball to be better than what I had anticipated, but then, I wasn't really expecting much.
The movie opens with the Oakland A's losing the final game of the 2001 ALDS to the New York Yankees followed by the realization that they would be losing their best player to those same Yankees for a price the A's could not afford to pay. GM Billy Beane realizes he can't compete with that disparity in financial resources by continuing to evaluate players in the same way all other GM's did. There's a fascinating confrontation with his scouting staff during which the scouts speak in scout speak: "The ball jumps off his bat." "He's a 5 tool player." "He has tremendous upside." "He has a great feel for the game." Billy asks them one question. "...But can he hit?" You see, Billy himself was once a 5 tool player and had heard all those same cliches about himself. The film flashes back to those days.
The scene moves to the offices of the Cleveland Indians where Billy tries to make a trade for Indians reliever Ricardo Rincon, a scene that likely never happened in real life. Beane notices that every time Indians GM Mark Shapiro seems to be about to agree on a deal, he glances over at a quiet fat kid standing by the door. Heads shake, gestures are made and Shapiro backs away from the deal. As a frustrated Billy walks out of Shapiro's office, he hunts down this fat kid in his cubicle and demands to know exactly what happened in there. The kid is frustrated himself. He walks out to the parking garage with Billy and pours his heart out. He explains how his statistical model contradicts what most GM's and scouts believe to be true about the game. He is looking for a chance to put his own theories to the test.
Beane gets back to Oakland and the first thing he does is hire the kid away from the Indians and makes him his Assistant GM, much to the annoyance of the scouts and his manager, Art Howe. Here the movie takes an almost Karate Kid turn with the fat kid(named in the movie Peter Brand, but actually a mashup of the real life Paul DePodesta and JP Ricciardi) playing the teacher and Beane playing the student. They emerge from this tutorial with a plan that the scouts and Howe absolutely hate. They will sign 3 undervalued players who all have an OBP of .360 or higher which they have determined mathematically will make up for the lost, much more expensive, players. Beane pays a late night visit to Scott Hatteberg in his home and in a touching scene offers to resurrect his career as a first baseman even though Hatteberg has never played first base and doesn't know if he can.
The start of the season brings a battle of wills between Beane and manager Art Howe over what players to put on the field. The theme is not unlike the battles internet Giants fans had this last year with Bruce Bochy and his lineups. Beane finally settles the argument by trading the players Howe was insisting on playing so he couldn't play them anymore! The climax of the movie was the historic 20 game winning streak and another playoff berth accomplished with the players Billy wanted on the field.
The movie should have ended there, in my opinion. The A's were eventually eliminated from the playoffs, this time by another small market team, the Minnesota Twins. Billy gets interviewed for and offered the GM job in Boston for many times the amount of money he could ever make in Oakland. There are some touching scenes between Billy and his daughter. There was a funny video clip of obese catching prospect Jeremy Brown rounding first base and diving back on a ball that was actually a home run, but otherwise had nothing at all to do with the story. There are a lot of scenes of Billy(Brad Pitt) sitting alone holding his head in his hands. The movie just loses momentum and focus in the last half hour and I started to get restless.
There is some Oscar buzz around Moneyball and Brad Pitt. I don't go to many movies these days, so don't have much to compare it to, but I would not give it any Oscar votes. The closest I would come to an Oscar nomination would be the fat dude who played the Assistant GM. He was great the whole way through. Brad Pitt did a good job of playing Billy Beane. He even almost made you forget he is Brad Pitt and think he is really Billy, but he's Brad Pitt after all and the dirctor just couldn't help himself from avoiding the poses and the cliched scenes of Pitt sitting alone holding his head in his hands.
Some fans of the book will be disappointed that the draft room scene is completely left out of the movie. Think about it though, there was really no way to include the draft room in the movie because the Moneyball draft did not really turn out all that well! Overall, I'd give the movie a marginal thumbs up. The first 3/4 was very good, though not great. The last 30 minutes were a drag and kind of ruined it for me.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Breaking News: Dodgers Declare Bankruptcy!
The Los Angeles Dodgers filed for bankruptcy protection this morning. You could kind of see this coming. Steve Soboroff who was Frank McCourts finance guy resigned over the weekend. No way he does that if he thinks McCourt would survive this. I don't pretend to know enough about bankruptcy law to know what all this means or how it will play out. Gotta think this means that the Dodgers are at least 2 steps closer to being sold to another owner. I have to say, as a Giants fan, I have mixed feelings about this. No question the Giants have benefitted from the Dodgers having a terrible owner. The line for potential multibillionaire owners in LA is long. It's really baffling how on earth a guy like McCourt got to be the owner in the first place. Whoever takes over the team, is likely to have boatloads of dough and a willingness, if not eagerness, to turn the Dodgers into the Yankees West or the Baseball Lakers.
At any rate, the Dodgers declaring bankruptcy is a huge, huge baseball story and a huge black eye for the game and for Bud Selig whose watch it occurred under. As always, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
At any rate, the Dodgers declaring bankruptcy is a huge, huge baseball story and a huge black eye for the game and for Bud Selig whose watch it occurred under. As always, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Hot Stove Update: Agent Ned Adds HR's and Outs
I generally believe that since you can't control what other people do, it's generally best to focus on what you can do, or not do. This philosophy usually carries over to the sports teams I root for. If they take care of their own business they won't have to worry about what their rivals are up to. Of course, there are exceptions. A perfect example is last season when Brian Sabean worried about what the Padres might do with Cody Ross and placed a pre-emptive waiver claim. We all know how that turned out!
Another exception is pretty much everything the Dodgers do. Now, I can finally say that nothing beats the feeling of winning the World Series, but for a large portion of my life as a Giants fan, I have to admit that I was sometimes torn between which I enjoyed more, the Giants winning or the Dodgers losing. Having finally settled that and with the knowledge that the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive, I admit I have taken a peek or two at what the Dodgers are up to this offseason.
Ned Colletti, AKA Agent Ned, has done an admirable job of shoring up the back end of his starting pitching rotation by retaining Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, and by adding Jon Garland. Some analysts have commented that the Dodgers now have the deepest rotation in baseball. I agree, it's an impressive bunch. Kuroda is a scary pitcher when he's healthy, but the other 3 are probably closer to Barry Zito than Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, if that good.
Last season, the Dodgers offense pretty much froze over after Manny went out with an injury. They had a severe lack of power and finished with just 120 HR's, the 3'rd lowest total in baseball. Agent Ned set out to correct that deficit, and did a good job. He retained Rod Barajas who will probably hit about 16 more HR's than Russell Martin. He added Juan Uribe who can be expected to add about 20 HR's over Ryan Theriot or Jamey Carroll, and retained Jon Gibbons and added Marcus Thames who will likely combine for about 20 more HR's than Scotty Pods. All in all, I'm estimating that the Dodgers are likely to hit about 45 more HR's than last season(Manny hit 8 and Gibbons hit 5 in limited PT). They are also likely to hit about 60 more HR's than the likely alternatives at C, 2B and LF. That is not an insignificant number. Each HR creates 1 run which adds 45 runs from last year and 60 runs over the alternative right off the bat.
As I have commented a few times, the cost of adding these HR's is that the Dodgers have also added a lot of outs to their lineup by decreasing their OBP. Although it is commonly expressed that way, a lower OBP does not really add outs to a lineup. Every game played in regulation innings has 24-27 outs depending on the outcome. You can't add or subtract from that range. What a lower OBP does is take away successful plate appearances. Just for fun, I decided to try and quantify how many runs these lost Successful Plate Appearances will cost the Hated Ones.
First we need to agree on what we are comparing here. After considering several scenarios, I finally settled on the career OBP's of the likely players at the 3 positions in question vs the most likely alternatives:
At catcher, the Dodgers lose Russell Martin and his career .362 OBP to Rod Barajas and his .284(that's right, .284) OBP.
At 2B, the Dodgers could have kept Ryan Theriot and his .348 career OBP(although he only had .323 last year) or they could have gone with Jamey Carroll and his career .355 career OBP. Instead they went with Juan Uribe's 22 or so HR's along with his .300 career OBP.
In LF, the Dodgers look like they are going with a straight L-R platoon of Jon Gibbons and his .314 career OBP plus Marcus Thames and his .311 career OBP instead of Scotty Pods and his .340 career OBP.
The average career OBP of the new Dodgers at the 3 positions of C, 2B and LF is .299. We'll round it to .300. The average career OBP of the 3 players who were the likely alternatives is .351. We'll round it to .350.
The formula for calculating the number of Successful Plate Appearances (SPA) for a given OBP is SPA/(Outs+SPA)=OBP. I estimated the number of outs over a 160 game schedule for the two sets of 3 players to be 160X9=1440.
For the Dodgers likely players in 2011, SPA/1440+SPA= .300. SPA= 1440(.300) + (.300)SPA. SPA-(.300)SPA= 432. (.700)SPA=432. SPA=432/.700= 617.
For the likely alternatives, SPA/1440 + SPA = .350. SPA= 1440(.350) + SPA(.350). SPA-(.350)SPA= (.350)1440. (.650)SPA=504. SPA= 504/.650= 775.
So, the Dodgers projected 2011 lineup can be projected to get 775-617= 158 fewer Successful Plate Appearances than a projected lineup with the 3 likely alternative players for LF, 2B and C.
That doesn't quite tell the whole story though. If you are going to give Agent Ned credit for adding about 60 runs from the added HR's he will get out of these 3 positions, you also have to subtract the HR's from the SPA's when calculating the runs lost to due to the lower OBP.
On average, 1 non-HR SPA produces 0.3 runs. If 60 more of the SPA's are due to HR's, you subtract that from 617 and get 557.
775-557= 218 fewer non-HR SPA's. 218 X 0.3=65.
In trading OBP for HR's, Ned ended up very close to even-steven in terms of run production. Since these are rough calculations, 60 extra runs from HR's is approximately equal to 65 Runs lost due to fewer Successful Plate Appearances.
Conclusion: The Dodgers offense is likely to be about as productive as it was over the second half of last season, which is quite bad. The pitching depth that Ned acquired is unlikely to be good enough to overcome that lack of run production.
Another exception is pretty much everything the Dodgers do. Now, I can finally say that nothing beats the feeling of winning the World Series, but for a large portion of my life as a Giants fan, I have to admit that I was sometimes torn between which I enjoyed more, the Giants winning or the Dodgers losing. Having finally settled that and with the knowledge that the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive, I admit I have taken a peek or two at what the Dodgers are up to this offseason.
Ned Colletti, AKA Agent Ned, has done an admirable job of shoring up the back end of his starting pitching rotation by retaining Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, and by adding Jon Garland. Some analysts have commented that the Dodgers now have the deepest rotation in baseball. I agree, it's an impressive bunch. Kuroda is a scary pitcher when he's healthy, but the other 3 are probably closer to Barry Zito than Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, if that good.
Last season, the Dodgers offense pretty much froze over after Manny went out with an injury. They had a severe lack of power and finished with just 120 HR's, the 3'rd lowest total in baseball. Agent Ned set out to correct that deficit, and did a good job. He retained Rod Barajas who will probably hit about 16 more HR's than Russell Martin. He added Juan Uribe who can be expected to add about 20 HR's over Ryan Theriot or Jamey Carroll, and retained Jon Gibbons and added Marcus Thames who will likely combine for about 20 more HR's than Scotty Pods. All in all, I'm estimating that the Dodgers are likely to hit about 45 more HR's than last season(Manny hit 8 and Gibbons hit 5 in limited PT). They are also likely to hit about 60 more HR's than the likely alternatives at C, 2B and LF. That is not an insignificant number. Each HR creates 1 run which adds 45 runs from last year and 60 runs over the alternative right off the bat.
As I have commented a few times, the cost of adding these HR's is that the Dodgers have also added a lot of outs to their lineup by decreasing their OBP. Although it is commonly expressed that way, a lower OBP does not really add outs to a lineup. Every game played in regulation innings has 24-27 outs depending on the outcome. You can't add or subtract from that range. What a lower OBP does is take away successful plate appearances. Just for fun, I decided to try and quantify how many runs these lost Successful Plate Appearances will cost the Hated Ones.
First we need to agree on what we are comparing here. After considering several scenarios, I finally settled on the career OBP's of the likely players at the 3 positions in question vs the most likely alternatives:
At catcher, the Dodgers lose Russell Martin and his career .362 OBP to Rod Barajas and his .284(that's right, .284) OBP.
At 2B, the Dodgers could have kept Ryan Theriot and his .348 career OBP(although he only had .323 last year) or they could have gone with Jamey Carroll and his career .355 career OBP. Instead they went with Juan Uribe's 22 or so HR's along with his .300 career OBP.
In LF, the Dodgers look like they are going with a straight L-R platoon of Jon Gibbons and his .314 career OBP plus Marcus Thames and his .311 career OBP instead of Scotty Pods and his .340 career OBP.
The average career OBP of the new Dodgers at the 3 positions of C, 2B and LF is .299. We'll round it to .300. The average career OBP of the 3 players who were the likely alternatives is .351. We'll round it to .350.
The formula for calculating the number of Successful Plate Appearances (SPA) for a given OBP is SPA/(Outs+SPA)=OBP. I estimated the number of outs over a 160 game schedule for the two sets of 3 players to be 160X9=1440.
For the Dodgers likely players in 2011, SPA/1440+SPA= .300. SPA= 1440(.300) + (.300)SPA. SPA-(.300)SPA= 432. (.700)SPA=432. SPA=432/.700= 617.
For the likely alternatives, SPA/1440 + SPA = .350. SPA= 1440(.350) + SPA(.350). SPA-(.350)SPA= (.350)1440. (.650)SPA=504. SPA= 504/.650= 775.
So, the Dodgers projected 2011 lineup can be projected to get 775-617= 158 fewer Successful Plate Appearances than a projected lineup with the 3 likely alternative players for LF, 2B and C.
That doesn't quite tell the whole story though. If you are going to give Agent Ned credit for adding about 60 runs from the added HR's he will get out of these 3 positions, you also have to subtract the HR's from the SPA's when calculating the runs lost to due to the lower OBP.
On average, 1 non-HR SPA produces 0.3 runs. If 60 more of the SPA's are due to HR's, you subtract that from 617 and get 557.
775-557= 218 fewer non-HR SPA's. 218 X 0.3=65.
In trading OBP for HR's, Ned ended up very close to even-steven in terms of run production. Since these are rough calculations, 60 extra runs from HR's is approximately equal to 65 Runs lost due to fewer Successful Plate Appearances.
Conclusion: The Dodgers offense is likely to be about as productive as it was over the second half of last season, which is quite bad. The pitching depth that Ned acquired is unlikely to be good enough to overcome that lack of run production.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Hot Stove Update: Matt Garza to the Cubs
The great migration of pitching to the National League continued this weekend with the announcement that Matt Garza had been traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Chicago Cubs in an 8 player deal. There were several players included in the trade that appear to be inconsequential. The core of the trade was Garza going to the Cubs with RHP Chris Archer, SS Hak Ju Lee, C Robinson Chirinos and OF Brandon Guyer going to the Rays. The trade makes some semblance of sense for both sides, but is just quirky enough to make it interesting to analyze. Let's break it down:
Cubs: Matt Garza is a very good pitcher who is probably a bit underrated because he seems to have not lived up to his perceived immense talent. He is also a bit like Matt Cain, though not as good, in that his ERA has outperformed his FIP's for several years running which drives sabermetric analysts crazy. If you want to read an interesting analysis of this phenomenon and a nice compare/contrast on Garza and Cain, check out the ongoing discussion on Splashing Pumpkins. I'll just say here that both Garza and Cain are power pitchers with strong flyball tendencies and good, but not great, K rates. Something to ponder....
Anyway, I think Garza will do just fine in Chicago and strengthens the Cubs rotation significantly. They lose a top ranked pitching prospect plus a couple of guys who were blocked in the organization. The loss of Archer may hurt in the long run, but in the short run they are stronger with Garza who is not FA eligible until 2014. The question is whether the rest of the team is strong enough to support an enhanced rotation. The Cubs are in a pretty bad bind with an aging lineup that contains several very bad contracts so a rebuild/remake of the lineup is very difficult, if not impossible. It may well be 2014 or beyond before they are a really competitive team again.
From Tampa Bay's perspective, They were willing to give up Garza because Jeremy Hellickson is ready to step into the rotation. Now, Hellboy is a darn good prospect, but for him to equal Garza's contribution to the rotation is a tall order, especially out of the box. Besides, they could have kept Garza, who will still be a bargain even with an arbitration fueled pay raise, and replaced a lesser starter, like James Shields or Jeff Niemann with Hellickson.
Strangely enough, the one guy the Rays apparently had to have in the trade was the catcher, Chirinos. It seems the Rangers had been trying to get Chirinos from the Cubs just so they could include him in a package for Garza! Chirinos is a bit old, but only recently converted from shortstop, is a good defende and has hit well in AAA. The Rays apparently want to give him a chance to be their starting catcher in 2011.
Archer provides a nice replacement at the AAA level for Hellickson. Some analysts think his stuff is better suited to closing, so perhaps the Rays think he might be Soriano's replacement?
The Rays already have a couple of shorstop options including Reid Brignac, so Hak Ju Lee gets more time to develop in the minors.
Guyer is a potential 4'th OF.
Summary: Garza makes the Cubs better, but maybe not good enough to be serious contenders. The Rays may come out OK in future years, but the notion that the trade makes them immediately better is pretty far-fetched. The biggest story here may be the continued mass migration of pitching from the AL to the NL. Since pitching is about 70% of the game, is it possible the balance of power is shifting from the AL to the NL? How much of this sudden league wide interest in stockpiling pitching is due to teams trying to keep pace with the Giants?
Cubs: Matt Garza is a very good pitcher who is probably a bit underrated because he seems to have not lived up to his perceived immense talent. He is also a bit like Matt Cain, though not as good, in that his ERA has outperformed his FIP's for several years running which drives sabermetric analysts crazy. If you want to read an interesting analysis of this phenomenon and a nice compare/contrast on Garza and Cain, check out the ongoing discussion on Splashing Pumpkins. I'll just say here that both Garza and Cain are power pitchers with strong flyball tendencies and good, but not great, K rates. Something to ponder....
Anyway, I think Garza will do just fine in Chicago and strengthens the Cubs rotation significantly. They lose a top ranked pitching prospect plus a couple of guys who were blocked in the organization. The loss of Archer may hurt in the long run, but in the short run they are stronger with Garza who is not FA eligible until 2014. The question is whether the rest of the team is strong enough to support an enhanced rotation. The Cubs are in a pretty bad bind with an aging lineup that contains several very bad contracts so a rebuild/remake of the lineup is very difficult, if not impossible. It may well be 2014 or beyond before they are a really competitive team again.
From Tampa Bay's perspective, They were willing to give up Garza because Jeremy Hellickson is ready to step into the rotation. Now, Hellboy is a darn good prospect, but for him to equal Garza's contribution to the rotation is a tall order, especially out of the box. Besides, they could have kept Garza, who will still be a bargain even with an arbitration fueled pay raise, and replaced a lesser starter, like James Shields or Jeff Niemann with Hellickson.
Strangely enough, the one guy the Rays apparently had to have in the trade was the catcher, Chirinos. It seems the Rangers had been trying to get Chirinos from the Cubs just so they could include him in a package for Garza! Chirinos is a bit old, but only recently converted from shortstop, is a good defende and has hit well in AAA. The Rays apparently want to give him a chance to be their starting catcher in 2011.
Archer provides a nice replacement at the AAA level for Hellickson. Some analysts think his stuff is better suited to closing, so perhaps the Rays think he might be Soriano's replacement?
The Rays already have a couple of shorstop options including Reid Brignac, so Hak Ju Lee gets more time to develop in the minors.
Guyer is a potential 4'th OF.
Summary: Garza makes the Cubs better, but maybe not good enough to be serious contenders. The Rays may come out OK in future years, but the notion that the trade makes them immediately better is pretty far-fetched. The biggest story here may be the continued mass migration of pitching from the AL to the NL. Since pitching is about 70% of the game, is it possible the balance of power is shifting from the AL to the NL? How much of this sudden league wide interest in stockpiling pitching is due to teams trying to keep pace with the Giants?
Sunday, January 9, 2011
In Memoriam: Christina Green
I'm sure all of you, like me, were shocked and horrified by the events that occurred in Tucson, Arizona yesterday. I had things I intended to do yesterday, but found myself glued to CNN for hours as the terrible news unfolded. Almost lost in the chaos was the news that a 9 year old girl was among the 6 people who died at the hands of the deranged gunman who attempted to assassinate Gabriella Giffords, United States Congressional Representative of that district in Tucson. Now, news has come out that the little girl was the daughter of John Green, a scout for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the granddaughter of Dallas Green, former manager of the Philadelphia Phillies who managed them to a World Series Championship in 1980.
There are a thousand different angles to look at this story from. Again, I am sure you are all as shocked, horrified and downright angry as I am about this incident. I have strong feelings about the political implications of this attack, but I'll leave those to other sites and other threads. If you wish to get into that, there's a couple of threads on the topic over on the Giants Message Board at sfgiants.com.
I want to focus on Christina Green and how this tragedy touches those of us who love the game of baseball and revere the people who play it, coach it and scout it at such a high level. By all accounts, Christina was not unlike thousands of other schoolgirls her age, but she was also special in her own way. She was born on September 11, 2001 and was later featured in an article about children born on that day. She was apparently a good student and was interested in in life. She expressed interest in being either a veterinarian or a politician. She had just been elected to her school council. Apparently a neighbor who was interested in politics noticed Christina's interest and suggested she go to the town hall meeting yesterday to meet congresswoman Giffords. How could anyone know the terrible outcome of that fateful suggestion?
We sometimes forget that the people who work in baseball are human too. They have families, hopes, dreams as well as tragedy and heartache. They have children and grandchildren who attend school, grow up and find their own place in the world. I cannot even begin to imagine the grief that has befallen Christina Green's family. To John Green, Dallas Green and their extended family I just want to say thank you for your contribution to the game I have come to love. May you somehow find comfort in the memory of Christina's short, beautiful life. It sounds like she accomplished more in her short time than many do in a full lifetime.
There are a thousand different angles to look at this story from. Again, I am sure you are all as shocked, horrified and downright angry as I am about this incident. I have strong feelings about the political implications of this attack, but I'll leave those to other sites and other threads. If you wish to get into that, there's a couple of threads on the topic over on the Giants Message Board at sfgiants.com.
I want to focus on Christina Green and how this tragedy touches those of us who love the game of baseball and revere the people who play it, coach it and scout it at such a high level. By all accounts, Christina was not unlike thousands of other schoolgirls her age, but she was also special in her own way. She was born on September 11, 2001 and was later featured in an article about children born on that day. She was apparently a good student and was interested in in life. She expressed interest in being either a veterinarian or a politician. She had just been elected to her school council. Apparently a neighbor who was interested in politics noticed Christina's interest and suggested she go to the town hall meeting yesterday to meet congresswoman Giffords. How could anyone know the terrible outcome of that fateful suggestion?
We sometimes forget that the people who work in baseball are human too. They have families, hopes, dreams as well as tragedy and heartache. They have children and grandchildren who attend school, grow up and find their own place in the world. I cannot even begin to imagine the grief that has befallen Christina Green's family. To John Green, Dallas Green and their extended family I just want to say thank you for your contribution to the game I have come to love. May you somehow find comfort in the memory of Christina's short, beautiful life. It sounds like she accomplished more in her short time than many do in a full lifetime.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Hot Stove Update: Beltre to the Rangers
Adrian Beltre finally got the contract he wanted from the Texas Rangers who apparently had money burning a hole in their corporate pockets and felt compelled to give it to somebody. Of course, Michael Young's pathetic performance on defense at 3B during the WS juxtaposed with the stellar play of Juan Uribe at the same position for the Giants might have had something to do with their thinking. The deal is for 5 years/$80 M with a $16 M vesting option for year 6. The Rangers have said they will keep Michael Young. It's unclear where he will play with Elvis Andrus at SS and Ian Kinsler at 2B. Perhaps Young will be the DH?
Beltre has been criticized for only producing big in his contract years, but he has been a reliable producer of 25+ HR's per season even in Seattle which is notoriously tough on RH hitters. Even in his worst season when he was injured much of the year and hit for just a .683 OPS, he was a 2.5 WAR player because of his stellar defense at 3B. Even if you figure he will regress to his average after his "contract year" in 2010, the Rangers paid market value for him on a yearly basis, maybe even slightly under market. With 5 years of guaranteed money, he stands a decent chance of producing his 3-4 WAR/yr deep into the contract. If deteriorates late in the contract, then the last year probably won't vest.
I think Beltre will help the Rangers. I'm not so sure the Giants win the WS if he had been playing 3B instead of Michael "The Statue" Young. The Rangers big challenge will be to keep their pitching productive after losing out on retaining Cliff Lee.
The big losers in this are the Angels who reportedly offered just $3 M less in guaranteed money. They are now left trying to explain to their fans how they lost out on the two players who could have helped them the most after proclaiming their willingness to spend at the start of the offseason. The Angels might get lucky in the bargain bin, but that's a big comedown for a team in one of the largest markets in the country and one that has not been historically shy about spending money.
Beltre has been criticized for only producing big in his contract years, but he has been a reliable producer of 25+ HR's per season even in Seattle which is notoriously tough on RH hitters. Even in his worst season when he was injured much of the year and hit for just a .683 OPS, he was a 2.5 WAR player because of his stellar defense at 3B. Even if you figure he will regress to his average after his "contract year" in 2010, the Rangers paid market value for him on a yearly basis, maybe even slightly under market. With 5 years of guaranteed money, he stands a decent chance of producing his 3-4 WAR/yr deep into the contract. If deteriorates late in the contract, then the last year probably won't vest.
I think Beltre will help the Rangers. I'm not so sure the Giants win the WS if he had been playing 3B instead of Michael "The Statue" Young. The Rangers big challenge will be to keep their pitching productive after losing out on retaining Cliff Lee.
The big losers in this are the Angels who reportedly offered just $3 M less in guaranteed money. They are now left trying to explain to their fans how they lost out on the two players who could have helped them the most after proclaiming their willingness to spend at the start of the offseason. The Angels might get lucky in the bargain bin, but that's a big comedown for a team in one of the largest markets in the country and one that has not been historically shy about spending money.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Zack Grienke to the BrewCrew
The full trade is RHP Zack Grienke from the KC Royals to the Milwaukee Brewers for SS Alcides Escobar, OF Lorenzo Cain, RHP Jeremy Jeffress and RHP Jake Odirizzi. I have to say I like the trade from both sides, but unlike most commentators, I like it a bit more from the Royals side.
On the surface, the trade gives the BrewCrew a solid rotation, while not quite in the same class as the Giants or Phillies, makes them very competitive with second tier rotations like the Dodgers, Braves, Reds and Cards: Grienke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson. The big question is which version of Zack Grienke are the Brewers getting, the Cy Young winner from 2009 or the guy who went 10-14 with a 4+ ERA last year? While the most likely answer is somewhere in between, it's not an automatic that Grienke is their #1 guy for the next 2 years or that he will be a $13 M/yr pitchers over those 2 years.
I don't mind the Brewers giving up young players and prospects if they are going for it now. The one chip they gave up that I think hurts just a bit is the SS, Escobar. Some of the commenters on other internet baseball sites are saying he's already a bust with the bat, but go look up the first 1-3 year stats on some historical all-star field-first shortstops like Dave Concepcion and Omar Vizquel who eventually became more than adequate hitters. Next, look up how many highly ranked, MLB ready shortstops are out there on the top prospect lists coming out. I did that when I was trying to see if there was anybody out there the Giants might be able to trade for. The list is not a long one! The Brewers got a stopgap back for at least 1 season, but will now probably have to struggle to fill the position for years to come.
From the Royals side, Grienke was coming off a down year and was demanding a trade. They didn't have to trade him, but they also couldn't risk a further eroding of his value with another down year either. The Royals have a monster farm system and are going to be a very good team in 1 to 3 years. One way or another, Grienke was not going to be part of that future good team. As loaded as KC's farm system is, they didn't have anybody who definitely projected as their future SS or CF and you can never have too much pitching.
Escobar is already a plus defender at an elite position. The D should get better as he learns the nuances of the position at the MLB level. His OBP was just .288, but with a BA of .239, that can easily get up into the .320-.330 range if he can get his BA up to .270 which his likely projection. With just that much offense, he should become a 3+ WAR player in the near future. Just to show you how much I like Escobar, for awhile this offseason is I was holding out a slim hope that the Giants could make a trade for him if the Brewers had soured on him.
I've always liked Lorenzo Cain and not just because he carries the same surname as our favorite Giants pitcher. Cain has always brought a big toolbox with him. At the very least, he'll be a positive defender in CF. His offensive record in the minors has been spotty. He will likely continue to be alternatingly spectacular and frustrating. Again, natural CF's don't grow on trees and this was a hole in KC's future.
Jeremy Jeffress has a 100 MPH fastball that he has struggled to control. He's also missed some development time with a couple of drug suspensions for Marijuana. Let me just say that while I don't advocate using Marijuana, especially if you do it by inhaling smoke into your lungs, I don't think it's as addictive as Nicotine nor as dangerous as alcohol. Like all substances including food, it has the potential for overuse and abuse, but probably should not be illegal and should be treated differently by MLB than violations for PED's and harder drugs. Assuming Jeffress can avoid a lifetime ban, he looks like a Closer in the making, and possibly as early as 2011. He was blowing hitters away in the Arizona Fall League.
Odirizzi is a former first round draft pick who has done nothing in the pros to diminish his standing as a prospect. He is still probably at least 2 years away, but gives the Royals yet another high ceiling prospect in their system. You can never have too much pitching!
Summary: Win-win here, but I like the trade slightly better for KC.
PS: If you think the internet community has been unfairly critical of Brian Sabean, you should read what most of them have to say about Dayton Moore. I see some parallels here. Moore has had a lot of trades and FA signings not work out the way fans hoped, and that is probably a negative. On the other hand, KC has never had a basic core strong enough for a quick turnaround. Moore's plan and mandate was/is to build the team through scouting, drafting and the farm system. He has quietly built the best farm system in baseball, and it's not at all a close call. Some commentators like Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus are going so far as to call it the best in history! The KC Royals are going to have very good team within the next 3 years and when that happens, all those people making jokes about how Moore and Omar Minaya battling for the title of worst GM in baseball are going to start singing a different tune.
On the surface, the trade gives the BrewCrew a solid rotation, while not quite in the same class as the Giants or Phillies, makes them very competitive with second tier rotations like the Dodgers, Braves, Reds and Cards: Grienke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson. The big question is which version of Zack Grienke are the Brewers getting, the Cy Young winner from 2009 or the guy who went 10-14 with a 4+ ERA last year? While the most likely answer is somewhere in between, it's not an automatic that Grienke is their #1 guy for the next 2 years or that he will be a $13 M/yr pitchers over those 2 years.
I don't mind the Brewers giving up young players and prospects if they are going for it now. The one chip they gave up that I think hurts just a bit is the SS, Escobar. Some of the commenters on other internet baseball sites are saying he's already a bust with the bat, but go look up the first 1-3 year stats on some historical all-star field-first shortstops like Dave Concepcion and Omar Vizquel who eventually became more than adequate hitters. Next, look up how many highly ranked, MLB ready shortstops are out there on the top prospect lists coming out. I did that when I was trying to see if there was anybody out there the Giants might be able to trade for. The list is not a long one! The Brewers got a stopgap back for at least 1 season, but will now probably have to struggle to fill the position for years to come.
From the Royals side, Grienke was coming off a down year and was demanding a trade. They didn't have to trade him, but they also couldn't risk a further eroding of his value with another down year either. The Royals have a monster farm system and are going to be a very good team in 1 to 3 years. One way or another, Grienke was not going to be part of that future good team. As loaded as KC's farm system is, they didn't have anybody who definitely projected as their future SS or CF and you can never have too much pitching.
Escobar is already a plus defender at an elite position. The D should get better as he learns the nuances of the position at the MLB level. His OBP was just .288, but with a BA of .239, that can easily get up into the .320-.330 range if he can get his BA up to .270 which his likely projection. With just that much offense, he should become a 3+ WAR player in the near future. Just to show you how much I like Escobar, for awhile this offseason is I was holding out a slim hope that the Giants could make a trade for him if the Brewers had soured on him.
I've always liked Lorenzo Cain and not just because he carries the same surname as our favorite Giants pitcher. Cain has always brought a big toolbox with him. At the very least, he'll be a positive defender in CF. His offensive record in the minors has been spotty. He will likely continue to be alternatingly spectacular and frustrating. Again, natural CF's don't grow on trees and this was a hole in KC's future.
Jeremy Jeffress has a 100 MPH fastball that he has struggled to control. He's also missed some development time with a couple of drug suspensions for Marijuana. Let me just say that while I don't advocate using Marijuana, especially if you do it by inhaling smoke into your lungs, I don't think it's as addictive as Nicotine nor as dangerous as alcohol. Like all substances including food, it has the potential for overuse and abuse, but probably should not be illegal and should be treated differently by MLB than violations for PED's and harder drugs. Assuming Jeffress can avoid a lifetime ban, he looks like a Closer in the making, and possibly as early as 2011. He was blowing hitters away in the Arizona Fall League.
Odirizzi is a former first round draft pick who has done nothing in the pros to diminish his standing as a prospect. He is still probably at least 2 years away, but gives the Royals yet another high ceiling prospect in their system. You can never have too much pitching!
Summary: Win-win here, but I like the trade slightly better for KC.
PS: If you think the internet community has been unfairly critical of Brian Sabean, you should read what most of them have to say about Dayton Moore. I see some parallels here. Moore has had a lot of trades and FA signings not work out the way fans hoped, and that is probably a negative. On the other hand, KC has never had a basic core strong enough for a quick turnaround. Moore's plan and mandate was/is to build the team through scouting, drafting and the farm system. He has quietly built the best farm system in baseball, and it's not at all a close call. Some commentators like Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus are going so far as to call it the best in history! The KC Royals are going to have very good team within the next 3 years and when that happens, all those people making jokes about how Moore and Omar Minaya battling for the title of worst GM in baseball are going to start singing a different tune.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Hot Stove Update: McCourt's Marital Agreement Invalidated
In a ruling that could have a huge impact on the future of the Dodgers, and by extension, the Giants, NL West and MLB, the judge in the McCourt divorce proceedings ruled that a marital agreement signed by the couple was invalid. It really wasn't hard to see this one coming. The agreement itself had 6 signed copies, 3 of which specified that the Dodgers were owned solely by Frank McCourt and 3 that did not. During testimony on the subject, Frank McCourt's lawyer admitted to adding in the sole ownership language after the documents were signed. The only surprising part of the ruling is that it took 100 pages of writing to make! It seems to me it could have been made in two short sentences: The document was doctored. It's invalid!
The ruling does not directly address the issue of who owns the Dodgers, but absent a formal agreement, it's hard to see how Frank can make much of a case that the team is not family owned. Jamie had a title of VP and clearly was making important decisions about the team. At the very least, it would seem that she has a right to 50% of the team's value. The complicating part is the team will likely have much more value in the future than it does right now.
I have to admit that I'm not versed in divorce or property law, but in short, it seems like this ruling will most likely lead to the team being sold so the assets can be equally divided. To make it even more complicated, apparently one of the potential buyers out there is a group of investors headed by Jamie McCourt! On the other hand, Frank McCourt appears to be out there all by himself with his attorneys. What's bad for the Dodgers is that it appears likely that Frank McCourt is going to do everything he can to keep from either selling the team or giving up control of it. I can see a real possibility of the team going into bankruptcy by the time it's all said and done.
The strange part of all this is I think the Dodgers might well be better run with Jamie McCourt in charge. From everything I've read, she doesn't seem like a nice person, but I always thought she was the brains behind the operation. Frank seems like an affable bloke who was along for the ride, kind of like Michael Huffington(remember him?)
The best case scenario for the Dodgers and MLB, but probably not for the Giants and their fans, would be for a group led by Peter O'Malley and backed by Patron Saint of all things LA Eli Broad to buy the team. I'm not sure, but I think MLB has some say in who buys a team. I would think that MLB would back the O'Malley/Broad group over Jamie McCourt without having to deliberate on it very long. The thought of a Dodger team with Peter O'Malley and backed by Eli Broad's ultra-mega bucks is just plain frightening to any long time Giants fan.
Stay tuned. This could get even more interesting!
The ruling does not directly address the issue of who owns the Dodgers, but absent a formal agreement, it's hard to see how Frank can make much of a case that the team is not family owned. Jamie had a title of VP and clearly was making important decisions about the team. At the very least, it would seem that she has a right to 50% of the team's value. The complicating part is the team will likely have much more value in the future than it does right now.
I have to admit that I'm not versed in divorce or property law, but in short, it seems like this ruling will most likely lead to the team being sold so the assets can be equally divided. To make it even more complicated, apparently one of the potential buyers out there is a group of investors headed by Jamie McCourt! On the other hand, Frank McCourt appears to be out there all by himself with his attorneys. What's bad for the Dodgers is that it appears likely that Frank McCourt is going to do everything he can to keep from either selling the team or giving up control of it. I can see a real possibility of the team going into bankruptcy by the time it's all said and done.
The strange part of all this is I think the Dodgers might well be better run with Jamie McCourt in charge. From everything I've read, she doesn't seem like a nice person, but I always thought she was the brains behind the operation. Frank seems like an affable bloke who was along for the ride, kind of like Michael Huffington(remember him?)
The best case scenario for the Dodgers and MLB, but probably not for the Giants and their fans, would be for a group led by Peter O'Malley and backed by Patron Saint of all things LA Eli Broad to buy the team. I'm not sure, but I think MLB has some say in who buys a team. I would think that MLB would back the O'Malley/Broad group over Jamie McCourt without having to deliberate on it very long. The thought of a Dodger team with Peter O'Malley and backed by Eli Broad's ultra-mega bucks is just plain frightening to any long time Giants fan.
Stay tuned. This could get even more interesting!
Monday, December 6, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Jayson Werth to the Nationals
Yesterday, on the eve of MLB's Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals dropped a bomb that left a smoking crater in the payroll plans of some MLB baseball teams. Ironically, Werth's contract is almost identical to the one for Barry Zito that Giants fans have chafed over for 4 long years and are likely to for at least 3 more even longer ones, 7 years/$126 million!
Although I am kind of glad to see someone finally outspend the Red Sox for a player they really wanted, this contract also makes me mad. Coupled with the earlier trade of San Diego icon Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, it makes me even madder. Something is very fishy in baseball! I can accept that the Yankees have more money to spend than any other team, and by a lot. What I don't understand is why a team in Boston with an ancient stadium seems to have almost as much jack to spend on players as the Yankees, but teams in other cities/metropolitan areas of comparable size apparently do not. Teams complain that they have to have new stadiums to get enough revenues to pay for players, but Boston has Fenway Park and San Diego has a stadium less than 10 years old!
Then, at team like the Nationals, who have claimed for years they can't afford top players suddenly drop $126 M on a guy like Werth. Now, don't get me wrong. Jayson Werth is an excellent ballplayer. He's put up 3 consecutive 5 WAR years which is pretty hard to do. Jayson Werth will very likely make the Nationals a better team, at least for the next 2-3 years. On the other hand, Jayson Werth is not a cornerstone player, IMO. I can understand giving a contract like that to a special player, one who has won an MVP or two and is likely to make the HOF someday. Jayson Werth is not going to win any MVP's and is not going to ever be in the HOF! Take that to the bank! Jayson Werth is a good player. He is not a great player, a special player, the kind you use up quarter or even a 5'th of your payroll on. That is completely ignoring the fact that the last 3 years of the this contract are likely to make Barry Zito's look good by comparison. Think Aaron Rowand here folks!
With a mountain of evidence out there that you don't have to sign contracts like this to build a winner, plus multiple examples of contracts like this one becoming total busts and millstones around the team's neck, you have to conclude that either owners are supremely stupid, or ownership of teams like the San Diego Padres are playing possum with their finances. I mean, Adrian Gonzalez is the type of player you would have to seriously consider giving a contract like this too. What he has accomplished in playing in the worst park for hitters in baseball, plus 18 other games per year in San Francisco and LA two other pitcher's parks, well, there just aren't many players out there capable of coming close to that kind of production!
I don't pretend to know all that much about the finances of MLB. It seems to be a fairly common belief that even the worst of teams in the worst of stadium situations have the jack for a $40 M payroll before they even sell one ticket or one beer or 1 hot dog! How then, can a team like the Padres, with a brand new stadium and decent attendance can't keep their star player, perhaps one of only 5 or 6 players in all of baseball capable of putting up that kind of production in that park and yet a team like the Nats can plunk down $126 M on Jayson Werth, who is good, but not half the player that Adrian Gonzalez is.
Whatever is is that's driving this insanity needs to be fixed in the next contract with the Player's Association.
PS: It's not at all hard to see why Scott Boras recommends that all of his clients go to free agency. There is always a team out there who will fork it over. The startling thing about the Werth contract is that Boras, who is notorious for not letting his clients sign until he has shopped every offer around at least twice, didn't even bother to ask if any other team wanted to match. He just told Jayson to go ahead and sign as quickly as he possibly could. Rumor has it that the Nats offer was 3 years longer and twice the total money than the second highest bidder.
PS2: The biggest losers in all this have to be the St Louis Cardinals. I mean, if Jayson Werth gets this much, and A Gone gets what it looks like he will get, what on earth will Albert Pujols' price be? Then again, I have totally stopped believing that any MLB team has any need to limit their payroll whatsoever. I mean, when the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday to that contract, which Werth's contract makes look like a steal, that had to tell you something. The Cardinals are sitting on some kind of stash and they aren't in exactly the largest market in baseball.
Although I am kind of glad to see someone finally outspend the Red Sox for a player they really wanted, this contract also makes me mad. Coupled with the earlier trade of San Diego icon Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, it makes me even madder. Something is very fishy in baseball! I can accept that the Yankees have more money to spend than any other team, and by a lot. What I don't understand is why a team in Boston with an ancient stadium seems to have almost as much jack to spend on players as the Yankees, but teams in other cities/metropolitan areas of comparable size apparently do not. Teams complain that they have to have new stadiums to get enough revenues to pay for players, but Boston has Fenway Park and San Diego has a stadium less than 10 years old!
Then, at team like the Nationals, who have claimed for years they can't afford top players suddenly drop $126 M on a guy like Werth. Now, don't get me wrong. Jayson Werth is an excellent ballplayer. He's put up 3 consecutive 5 WAR years which is pretty hard to do. Jayson Werth will very likely make the Nationals a better team, at least for the next 2-3 years. On the other hand, Jayson Werth is not a cornerstone player, IMO. I can understand giving a contract like that to a special player, one who has won an MVP or two and is likely to make the HOF someday. Jayson Werth is not going to win any MVP's and is not going to ever be in the HOF! Take that to the bank! Jayson Werth is a good player. He is not a great player, a special player, the kind you use up quarter or even a 5'th of your payroll on. That is completely ignoring the fact that the last 3 years of the this contract are likely to make Barry Zito's look good by comparison. Think Aaron Rowand here folks!
With a mountain of evidence out there that you don't have to sign contracts like this to build a winner, plus multiple examples of contracts like this one becoming total busts and millstones around the team's neck, you have to conclude that either owners are supremely stupid, or ownership of teams like the San Diego Padres are playing possum with their finances. I mean, Adrian Gonzalez is the type of player you would have to seriously consider giving a contract like this too. What he has accomplished in playing in the worst park for hitters in baseball, plus 18 other games per year in San Francisco and LA two other pitcher's parks, well, there just aren't many players out there capable of coming close to that kind of production!
I don't pretend to know all that much about the finances of MLB. It seems to be a fairly common belief that even the worst of teams in the worst of stadium situations have the jack for a $40 M payroll before they even sell one ticket or one beer or 1 hot dog! How then, can a team like the Padres, with a brand new stadium and decent attendance can't keep their star player, perhaps one of only 5 or 6 players in all of baseball capable of putting up that kind of production in that park and yet a team like the Nats can plunk down $126 M on Jayson Werth, who is good, but not half the player that Adrian Gonzalez is.
Whatever is is that's driving this insanity needs to be fixed in the next contract with the Player's Association.
PS: It's not at all hard to see why Scott Boras recommends that all of his clients go to free agency. There is always a team out there who will fork it over. The startling thing about the Werth contract is that Boras, who is notorious for not letting his clients sign until he has shopped every offer around at least twice, didn't even bother to ask if any other team wanted to match. He just told Jayson to go ahead and sign as quickly as he possibly could. Rumor has it that the Nats offer was 3 years longer and twice the total money than the second highest bidder.
PS2: The biggest losers in all this have to be the St Louis Cardinals. I mean, if Jayson Werth gets this much, and A Gone gets what it looks like he will get, what on earth will Albert Pujols' price be? Then again, I have totally stopped believing that any MLB team has any need to limit their payroll whatsoever. I mean, when the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday to that contract, which Werth's contract makes look like a steal, that had to tell you something. The Cardinals are sitting on some kind of stash and they aren't in exactly the largest market in baseball.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Hot Stove Update: A Gone!
The Padres today did what they had been threatening to do for some time now, traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for 3 prospects and the proverbial PTBNL. For the last 2-3 years, AGone was the one and only player in the Padres lineup to give opposing pitchers cause for concern. Not that he was as good as Barry Bonds, but it was a similar situation in that AGone really stood out in that lineup, just head and shoulders above everybody else. Last year seemed like a bit of a down year for Gonzalez, but even then, his line of .298/.393/.511 with 31 HR's was stellar, especially considering his home park, Petco, is easily the toughest in baseball for hitters. The second highest HR total on the team belonged to Ryan Ludwick with 17 and only 6 of those were hit as a Padre. To put it simply, the Padres lineup without Adrian Gonzalez is a wasteland! It is easily the worst in baseball.
Gonzalez was not going to be a Padre past 2011. Padres management had a meeting with his agents and concluded that they would not be able to sign him to an affordable contract extension. That put the Padres in a bind. After all, they only missed the playoffs by 2 games in 2010. Do they make another run while Gonzalez is still inexpensive and then lose him to free agency, or do they get what they can for him now? Obviously, the Padres decided they could get more now. Part of what may have driven this is the soon to expire agreement with the Player's Association. It is widely assumed that the next agreeement will significantly change free agent compensation if not eliminate it entirely.
So, let's look at what the Padres got in return for their star player:
1. Casey Kelly, RHP. Kelly is a former first round draft pick who has vacillated between shortstop and pitching. Finally committed to pitching full time in 2010, he had a rough time of AA ball posting a 5.31 ERA. In his favor are peripheral stats that look much better, age of 20 in AA ball and good scouting reports. He reportedly has a fastball that goes 88-93 MPH plus a decent curveball and changeup. He is a groundball pitcher, but his groundball rate has diminished at higher levels. Kelly is a good prospect, though not great. He is highly unlikely to pitch in the majors in 2011 and one has to wonder how he will fare in the PCL. He will likely have a major league career of some sort, but is not a slam dunk major leaguer let alone a sure thing to be a star.
2. Anthony Rizzo, 1B- Rizzo played in A+ and AA at age 20. He showed excellent power hitting 25 HR's between two levels. He does have contact issues though and hit just .248 and .263 with K rates of 27.4% and 24.2%. Again, Rizzo won't be replacing AGone at first base in 2011 and is not a lock to ever stick as a major leaguer, especially in Petco with power being his only real tool.
3. Reymond Fuentes, OF- First round draft choice in 2009 out of Puerto Rico. Fuentes' main asset is speed, something the Padres seem to be intent on acquiring more of. He was 19 years old last year in low A ball putting up a line of .270/.328/.377 with 42 SB's in 47 tries. Fuentes has a chance to possibly become Juan Pierre with slightly more power, but it will not likely be soon if ever.
4. PTBNL- Word is it will not be a highly ranked prospect.
If I'm a Padres fan, I have to be disappointed with the return for AGone. Padres GM Jed Hoyer worked for the BoSox before taking the Padres job. You have to wonder if he is overvaluing these prospects because he is familiar with them. It just seems like when you trade a player of AGone's caliber, even if he is only low cost for one more season, you have to get at least one player who is ready to contribute right away, maybe a Jed Lowrie or at least a grade A prospect.
I know the Padres performed a lot better than most people, including me, thought they would last year, but Adrian Gonzalez was a huge part of that. Without him, the Padres are little better than a AAA team, even with a couple of fine young starting pitchers in their rotation.
Addendum: Apparently the trade is contingent upon the Red Sox and Gonzalez agreeing on a contract extension. I would assume that the BoSox are fairly confident they can get this done. It is not a well kept secret what AGone's expectations are, Ryan Howard's contract seems to be the starting point for the discussion. Not many teams out there who are both in need of a first baseman and have the jack to sign such a contract. That may have played a role in suppressing his trade value.
Gonzalez was not going to be a Padre past 2011. Padres management had a meeting with his agents and concluded that they would not be able to sign him to an affordable contract extension. That put the Padres in a bind. After all, they only missed the playoffs by 2 games in 2010. Do they make another run while Gonzalez is still inexpensive and then lose him to free agency, or do they get what they can for him now? Obviously, the Padres decided they could get more now. Part of what may have driven this is the soon to expire agreement with the Player's Association. It is widely assumed that the next agreeement will significantly change free agent compensation if not eliminate it entirely.
So, let's look at what the Padres got in return for their star player:
1. Casey Kelly, RHP. Kelly is a former first round draft pick who has vacillated between shortstop and pitching. Finally committed to pitching full time in 2010, he had a rough time of AA ball posting a 5.31 ERA. In his favor are peripheral stats that look much better, age of 20 in AA ball and good scouting reports. He reportedly has a fastball that goes 88-93 MPH plus a decent curveball and changeup. He is a groundball pitcher, but his groundball rate has diminished at higher levels. Kelly is a good prospect, though not great. He is highly unlikely to pitch in the majors in 2011 and one has to wonder how he will fare in the PCL. He will likely have a major league career of some sort, but is not a slam dunk major leaguer let alone a sure thing to be a star.
2. Anthony Rizzo, 1B- Rizzo played in A+ and AA at age 20. He showed excellent power hitting 25 HR's between two levels. He does have contact issues though and hit just .248 and .263 with K rates of 27.4% and 24.2%. Again, Rizzo won't be replacing AGone at first base in 2011 and is not a lock to ever stick as a major leaguer, especially in Petco with power being his only real tool.
3. Reymond Fuentes, OF- First round draft choice in 2009 out of Puerto Rico. Fuentes' main asset is speed, something the Padres seem to be intent on acquiring more of. He was 19 years old last year in low A ball putting up a line of .270/.328/.377 with 42 SB's in 47 tries. Fuentes has a chance to possibly become Juan Pierre with slightly more power, but it will not likely be soon if ever.
4. PTBNL- Word is it will not be a highly ranked prospect.
If I'm a Padres fan, I have to be disappointed with the return for AGone. Padres GM Jed Hoyer worked for the BoSox before taking the Padres job. You have to wonder if he is overvaluing these prospects because he is familiar with them. It just seems like when you trade a player of AGone's caliber, even if he is only low cost for one more season, you have to get at least one player who is ready to contribute right away, maybe a Jed Lowrie or at least a grade A prospect.
I know the Padres performed a lot better than most people, including me, thought they would last year, but Adrian Gonzalez was a huge part of that. Without him, the Padres are little better than a AAA team, even with a couple of fine young starting pitchers in their rotation.
Addendum: Apparently the trade is contingent upon the Red Sox and Gonzalez agreeing on a contract extension. I would assume that the BoSox are fairly confident they can get this done. It is not a well kept secret what AGone's expectations are, Ryan Howard's contract seems to be the starting point for the discussion. Not many teams out there who are both in need of a first baseman and have the jack to sign such a contract. That may have played a role in suppressing his trade value.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Victor Martinez, Jon Garland
A little late on this one. Victor Martinez signed a 4 year/$50 M contract with the Detroit Tigers. As a full time catcher, Victor Martinez would be an elite player. As it is, Detroit is expecting him to the the primary DH, back-up first baseman and catch 2-3 times/week. Martinez will likely be a full time DH by the time the contract is done. Expect his numbers to suffer a bit playing in Detroit. I was thinking Martinez and Posey might make a nice catcher/first base tandem, but I like the deal the Giants got with Aubry Huff a lot better.
The Dodgers signed Jon Garland to a 1 year/$5 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for 2012. Garland is an innings eating workhorse who thrives in the west coast ballparks. With this signing, Ned Colletti has the Dodgers rotation set for 2011 and it's a good one: Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Lilly and Garland. Billz and Kershaw are potential aces who haven't quite gotten there yet. Kuroda is a strong #3 who has missed a few starts in his tenure with the Dodgers, but can be lights out when fully healthy. Lilly is getting by on junk at this point. You have to think that a flyball pitcher whose FB tops out at 86 MPH is living on borrowed time. 3 years/$33 M is a might rich contract for that, but he may be a solid #4 for at least 1 more season.
Colletti still hasn't addressed the bullpen, but the rotation should get the Dodgers deep into the vast majority of games, helping to mask the weak bullpen. Colletti also has major issues in the lineup that need to be addressed. Still, the rotation alone will make the Dodgers a formidable opponent in 2011.
The Dodgers signed Jon Garland to a 1 year/$5 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for 2012. Garland is an innings eating workhorse who thrives in the west coast ballparks. With this signing, Ned Colletti has the Dodgers rotation set for 2011 and it's a good one: Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Lilly and Garland. Billz and Kershaw are potential aces who haven't quite gotten there yet. Kuroda is a strong #3 who has missed a few starts in his tenure with the Dodgers, but can be lights out when fully healthy. Lilly is getting by on junk at this point. You have to think that a flyball pitcher whose FB tops out at 86 MPH is living on borrowed time. 3 years/$33 M is a might rich contract for that, but he may be a solid #4 for at least 1 more season.
Colletti still hasn't addressed the bullpen, but the rotation should get the Dodgers deep into the vast majority of games, helping to mask the weak bullpen. Colletti also has major issues in the lineup that need to be addressed. Still, the rotation alone will make the Dodgers a formidable opponent in 2011.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Clint Barmes to the Astros
The Houston Astros traded RHP Felipe Paulino to the Colorado Rockies for SS/2B Clint Barmes. This is a strange trade. I have to say I was surprised when I saw it. The trade makes some sense for the Astros in that they needed to upgrade their middle infield, and Barmes is an upgrade for them at a relatively inexpensive $$$ value. The part I don't like for the Astros is giving up Paulino, a pitcher with great looking stuff and better peripheral stats than ERA who just hasn't seemed to be able to put it all together. Maybe Paulino never gets it together, but SP's with 95 MPH fastballs don't grow on trees. If he ever does get it together, he has top of the rotation stuff. The shortstop market is extremely thin though and I'm pretty sure the asking prices for Marco Scuturo and Jason Bartlett just went up, a lot! For his part, Barmes gets into a situation where he will get a lot more PT and at his favored position, SS. On the other hand, he won't be playing half his games in Coors Field.
Colorado doesn't lose much in that they are stacked at middle IF and Barmes was likely to be non-tendered anyway. Although Paulino has a pretty sweet looking upside, Colorado doesn't seem to be the most likely place in the world for him to put it together, so I'm not sure Colorado really gets anything that's going to help them here.
The biggest winner in all this would seem to be Barmes. The two teams involved come out pretty close to neutral. Paulino would seem to be the biggest loser as I don't see him shaking his underachiever reputation pitching half his games in Coors Field.
Colorado doesn't lose much in that they are stacked at middle IF and Barmes was likely to be non-tendered anyway. Although Paulino has a pretty sweet looking upside, Colorado doesn't seem to be the most likely place in the world for him to put it together, so I'm not sure Colorado really gets anything that's going to help them here.
The biggest winner in all this would seem to be Barmes. The two teams involved come out pretty close to neutral. Paulino would seem to be the biggest loser as I don't see him shaking his underachiever reputation pitching half his games in Coors Field.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Uggla to the Braves; Davis to the Jays
Yesterday, the Florida Marlins continued their roster adjustment by trading Dan Uggla to the Atlanta Braves. At first glance this trade appears to be very one-sided, and from at least one perspective it is. Uggla is a very good player. He has hit 30 or more HR's 4 seasons in a row, something only 3 other players have done in that time. His hitting, er slugging, more than make up for his subpar defense at 2B. He is a reliable 5 WAR player, and those don't just grow on trees. Uggla is worth much more as a player than the two players who the Marlins acquired, combined.
There is another way of looking at this though. The Marlins were going to lose Dan Uggla anyway. He turned down multiple very reasonable offers to the point where it became obvious that he just didn't want to sign a long term contract at all with them. I wonder if that may have had anything to do with conversations he had with his good friend Cody Ross about what it's like to play for a championship contender? At any rate, the Marlins were being forced into going to arbitration with Uggla just to keep him for 1 more season and they were clearly not willing to do that. With the deadline for offering arbitration looming, they had to move fast with every other team in baseball knowing they had to trade Uggla. Under those circumstances, the Marlins made out pretty well. They got a replacement second baseman who played in the 2010 All-Star game and who is cost controlled for awhile. They also got a LOOGY reliever to add to the stable of RH relievers they have stockpiled via other trades.
As for the Braves, they added a middle of the order RH bat to a lineup that leaned fairly heavily to the left, something the Giants were able exploit in the playoffs. What will be interesting is whether Uggla signs a long term contract with Atlanta or if he is determined to test free agency in 2012.
Trader Billy struck again, trading former Giant Rajai Davis to the Toronto Blue Jays for a couple of pitching prospects who project as relief pitchers. As you might remember, Davis went on a tear with Oakland after Billy Beane picked him up on waivers from the Giants in 2009. Davis stole a lot of bases again in 2010, but his hitting regressed a lot and he was the odd man out after the A's traded for David DeJesus. Some Giants fans were understandably upset with Brian Sabean for letting Davis go, but from today's perspective, if it came down to Davis or Andres Torres, the Giants kept the right guy. It's a little tough to see how Rajai Davis fits in with the Toronto Blue Jays other than giving them a 4'th OF option in case Fred Lewis leaves. On the other hand, Lewis and Davis might make a nice #4, #5 OF combo for the Jays.
There is another way of looking at this though. The Marlins were going to lose Dan Uggla anyway. He turned down multiple very reasonable offers to the point where it became obvious that he just didn't want to sign a long term contract at all with them. I wonder if that may have had anything to do with conversations he had with his good friend Cody Ross about what it's like to play for a championship contender? At any rate, the Marlins were being forced into going to arbitration with Uggla just to keep him for 1 more season and they were clearly not willing to do that. With the deadline for offering arbitration looming, they had to move fast with every other team in baseball knowing they had to trade Uggla. Under those circumstances, the Marlins made out pretty well. They got a replacement second baseman who played in the 2010 All-Star game and who is cost controlled for awhile. They also got a LOOGY reliever to add to the stable of RH relievers they have stockpiled via other trades.
As for the Braves, they added a middle of the order RH bat to a lineup that leaned fairly heavily to the left, something the Giants were able exploit in the playoffs. What will be interesting is whether Uggla signs a long term contract with Atlanta or if he is determined to test free agency in 2012.
Trader Billy struck again, trading former Giant Rajai Davis to the Toronto Blue Jays for a couple of pitching prospects who project as relief pitchers. As you might remember, Davis went on a tear with Oakland after Billy Beane picked him up on waivers from the Giants in 2009. Davis stole a lot of bases again in 2010, but his hitting regressed a lot and he was the odd man out after the A's traded for David DeJesus. Some Giants fans were understandably upset with Brian Sabean for letting Davis go, but from today's perspective, if it came down to Davis or Andres Torres, the Giants kept the right guy. It's a little tough to see how Rajai Davis fits in with the Toronto Blue Jays other than giving them a 4'th OF option in case Fred Lewis leaves. On the other hand, Lewis and Davis might make a nice #4, #5 OF combo for the Jays.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Padres Trade for Cameron Maybin
The Padres and Marlins completed a trade today with the Padres acquiring CF Cameron Maybin for 2 RP's, Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica
The Padres have been looking for a speedy OF to patrol the vast domain of Petco Park for some time. Tony Gwynn Jr has the speed to track down drives in the alleys, but has no bat whatsoever. Other guys who can hit don't quite have the speed or chops to play CF, especially in that park. Maybin has been a much anticipated prospect for seemingly as long as I can remember.
Originally drafted into the Detroit Tigers organization, Maybin put up an intriguing combination of near- .400 OBP's and 25+ SB's in the lower minors that made prospect watchers drool. His power numbers, while never great, seemed to be good enough to keep pitchers honest and help him maintain his OBP. Maybin's detractors pointed to his consistently extreme groundball rates and worried that his power would never develop and his BA might not hold up at higher levels where the fielding was better.
Maybin was traded to Florida when the Tigers acquired Miggy Cabrera. Maybin got a late callup in 2008 at performed well in a very small sample size. He was penciled in as Florida's starting CF in 2009, but flopped and was sent back to the minors. He stayed up for good last year, but only achieved a slash line of .234/.302/.361 with 8 HR's and 9 SB's in 315 PA's over 82 games. He was rapidly becoming the odd man out in Florida's OF with the emergence of Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Chris Coghlan and Scott Cousins, so was expendable to the Marlins.
Florida's bullpen was a shambles last year and needed a serious upgrade. The Marlins achieved a big part of that goal in one trade by acquiring two hard throwing RHP's who were part of San Diego's seemingly endless parade of flame-throwers out of their bullpen last year. San Diego obviously felt they had enough pitching depth to use some of it to fill a nagging need.
I'm going to give the thumbs up on this trade to Florida and a thumbs down to San Diego. Maybin's slightly negative UZR from 2010 would suggest that he may not be the CF answer in Petco and the other spacious OF's in the NL West. He continues to have an extreme GB tendency which will limit his power potential which is likely to be non-existent playing in the NL West anyway. Yes, some of those ground balls will go on through for base-hits, but MLB fielders will turn the vast majority of them into outs. San Diego may be able to replace Webb and Mujica in the bullpen, but more likely their depth will be adversely affected turning their greatest strength into merely good.
Florida obviously improves here giving up their 5'th OF at best while creating instant respectability for their tattered bullpen.
The Padres have been looking for a speedy OF to patrol the vast domain of Petco Park for some time. Tony Gwynn Jr has the speed to track down drives in the alleys, but has no bat whatsoever. Other guys who can hit don't quite have the speed or chops to play CF, especially in that park. Maybin has been a much anticipated prospect for seemingly as long as I can remember.
Originally drafted into the Detroit Tigers organization, Maybin put up an intriguing combination of near- .400 OBP's and 25+ SB's in the lower minors that made prospect watchers drool. His power numbers, while never great, seemed to be good enough to keep pitchers honest and help him maintain his OBP. Maybin's detractors pointed to his consistently extreme groundball rates and worried that his power would never develop and his BA might not hold up at higher levels where the fielding was better.
Maybin was traded to Florida when the Tigers acquired Miggy Cabrera. Maybin got a late callup in 2008 at performed well in a very small sample size. He was penciled in as Florida's starting CF in 2009, but flopped and was sent back to the minors. He stayed up for good last year, but only achieved a slash line of .234/.302/.361 with 8 HR's and 9 SB's in 315 PA's over 82 games. He was rapidly becoming the odd man out in Florida's OF with the emergence of Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Chris Coghlan and Scott Cousins, so was expendable to the Marlins.
Florida's bullpen was a shambles last year and needed a serious upgrade. The Marlins achieved a big part of that goal in one trade by acquiring two hard throwing RHP's who were part of San Diego's seemingly endless parade of flame-throwers out of their bullpen last year. San Diego obviously felt they had enough pitching depth to use some of it to fill a nagging need.
I'm going to give the thumbs up on this trade to Florida and a thumbs down to San Diego. Maybin's slightly negative UZR from 2010 would suggest that he may not be the CF answer in Petco and the other spacious OF's in the NL West. He continues to have an extreme GB tendency which will limit his power potential which is likely to be non-existent playing in the NL West anyway. Yes, some of those ground balls will go on through for base-hits, but MLB fielders will turn the vast majority of them into outs. San Diego may be able to replace Webb and Mujica in the bullpen, but more likely their depth will be adversely affected turning their greatest strength into merely good.
Florida obviously improves here giving up their 5'th OF at best while creating instant respectability for their tattered bullpen.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Trader Billy
Once upon a time, the San Diego Padres had a manager/GM named Jack McKeon who seemed to make trades for the sake of making trades. His nickname, Trader Jack! In recent years, Billy Beane, GM of the Bay Bridge rivals Oakland A's has made a whole series of trades starting with the dismantling of the Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito that have not exactly left the A's in better shape than when he started. Of course, that doesn't stop all the "Billy is God" sycophants who, because they claim to understand sabermetrics, hold themselves in contempt of other mere fans, from proclaiming after each and every Billy Beane trade that it is all part of some master plan to achieve world domination.
It comes as no surprise then that Trader Billy would get the old Hot Stove fired up with the first signing and first major trade of the offseason. It all started with news that the A's had made the high bid on Japanese pitcher, Hisashi Iwakuma. That left some people scratching their heads because Oakland was already loaded with good young starting pitchers. Now, I will give Billy Beane credit for thinking ahead, maybe more than any other GM. I don't happen to think that he always thinks ahead correctly, but he does think ahead! Within hours of the news that the A's had won the bidding for Iwakuma, Billy traded a couple of pitchers, Vin Mazzaro and minor leaguer Justin Marks to the KC Royals for OF David DeJesus.
David DeJesus is a bit of an enigma. He has long been regareded as having elite potential, but he has never really come close to achieving that level of performance and he has tended to be inconsistent. He has hit for average at times but has also had seasons where he was well under .300. He does draw a lot of walks for a good OBP, which Billy likes, but he has never hit 15 HR's nor has he ever stolen 15 bases in any single season. On defense, DeJesus' UZR's have also been inconsistent, but he is reputed to be a solid defender with above average range in the OF. DeJesus' salary will be $6 million next season, but he will almost certainly test his luck in the FA market next offseason, so Oakland is likely getting him for just one season.
As for the pitchers involved, Iwakuma would seem to be a solid bet to be an upgrade over Mazzaro while Marks has a limited ceiling but a decent chance to eventually be a #4 or 5 MLB starter. Mazzaro's contract is under team control for 5 more seasons while Marks has 3 more seasons before he is Rule 5 eligible and then would have 3 more options after that, so KC has plenty of time to develop him, although he is projected to be a fairly fast mover.
With the signing and trade, Billy Beane gives the A's 2 clear upgrades at SP and OF. DeJesus is probably never going to live up to his perceived potential, and will likely have slightly worse offensive numbers in Oakland than KC. On the other hand, like the Giants, the A's pitch and defend well enough that even a small upgrade on offense might be a big difference maker. From KC's perspective, they add to their pitching depth and get long term cost control for a player they would almost certainly lose after next season anyway, but you've got to think they could have gotten more for DeJesus if they had waited out the FA market until after Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth signed or even waited until next year's trade deadline to deal him. Worst case scenario, KC keeps him all season and then gets compensatory draft picks after he leaves for free agency next offseason. A deadline trade and/or compensation draft picks is likely to be figuring prominently in Billy Beane's thinking here too.
I haven't always been a fan of Billy Beane's trades, and I despise the "Billy is God" mentality in many corners of the baseball oriented internet, but I have to give him a solid thumbs up for the presumed Iwakuma signing and the David DeJesus trade. I'll give Dayton Moore and the KC Royals a thumbs down for not getting nearly enough return for DeJesus.
It comes as no surprise then that Trader Billy would get the old Hot Stove fired up with the first signing and first major trade of the offseason. It all started with news that the A's had made the high bid on Japanese pitcher, Hisashi Iwakuma. That left some people scratching their heads because Oakland was already loaded with good young starting pitchers. Now, I will give Billy Beane credit for thinking ahead, maybe more than any other GM. I don't happen to think that he always thinks ahead correctly, but he does think ahead! Within hours of the news that the A's had won the bidding for Iwakuma, Billy traded a couple of pitchers, Vin Mazzaro and minor leaguer Justin Marks to the KC Royals for OF David DeJesus.
David DeJesus is a bit of an enigma. He has long been regareded as having elite potential, but he has never really come close to achieving that level of performance and he has tended to be inconsistent. He has hit for average at times but has also had seasons where he was well under .300. He does draw a lot of walks for a good OBP, which Billy likes, but he has never hit 15 HR's nor has he ever stolen 15 bases in any single season. On defense, DeJesus' UZR's have also been inconsistent, but he is reputed to be a solid defender with above average range in the OF. DeJesus' salary will be $6 million next season, but he will almost certainly test his luck in the FA market next offseason, so Oakland is likely getting him for just one season.
As for the pitchers involved, Iwakuma would seem to be a solid bet to be an upgrade over Mazzaro while Marks has a limited ceiling but a decent chance to eventually be a #4 or 5 MLB starter. Mazzaro's contract is under team control for 5 more seasons while Marks has 3 more seasons before he is Rule 5 eligible and then would have 3 more options after that, so KC has plenty of time to develop him, although he is projected to be a fairly fast mover.
With the signing and trade, Billy Beane gives the A's 2 clear upgrades at SP and OF. DeJesus is probably never going to live up to his perceived potential, and will likely have slightly worse offensive numbers in Oakland than KC. On the other hand, like the Giants, the A's pitch and defend well enough that even a small upgrade on offense might be a big difference maker. From KC's perspective, they add to their pitching depth and get long term cost control for a player they would almost certainly lose after next season anyway, but you've got to think they could have gotten more for DeJesus if they had waited out the FA market until after Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth signed or even waited until next year's trade deadline to deal him. Worst case scenario, KC keeps him all season and then gets compensatory draft picks after he leaves for free agency next offseason. A deadline trade and/or compensation draft picks is likely to be figuring prominently in Billy Beane's thinking here too.
I haven't always been a fan of Billy Beane's trades, and I despise the "Billy is God" mentality in many corners of the baseball oriented internet, but I have to give him a solid thumbs up for the presumed Iwakuma signing and the David DeJesus trade. I'll give Dayton Moore and the KC Royals a thumbs down for not getting nearly enough return for DeJesus.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Stand Up to Cancer!
I forgot to mention in the game wrap that last night's game was Stand Up to Cancer night at Petco Park. A large group dressed in bright yellow T-shirts stood in the RF stands the entire game. Major kudos to Heath Bell, whose father was diagnosed with lung cancer earlier this year, for joining them in standing for the whole game. Bell and the Padres bullpen have helped raise money for the organization all year.
I have to say, when I saw Bell standing up out there on the RF porch, I wondered if that meant he was unavailable for this game, or if he was available, if standing all game would have an impact on his performance. As it turned out, it didn't matter. Fortunately a Save situation never came up for either team in this game.
Anyway, I don't like Heath Bell one bit when he's out there on the mound against the Giants in the 9'th inning, but gotta give credit where it's due. He stood up for a good cause last night.
I have to say, when I saw Bell standing up out there on the RF porch, I wondered if that meant he was unavailable for this game, or if he was available, if standing all game would have an impact on his performance. As it turned out, it didn't matter. Fortunately a Save situation never came up for either team in this game.
Anyway, I don't like Heath Bell one bit when he's out there on the mound against the Giants in the 9'th inning, but gotta give credit where it's due. He stood up for a good cause last night.
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