The last time Justin Verlander pitched in what was then AT&T Park was in Game 1 of the 2012 World Series when Pablo Sandoval lit him up. I have long had a suspicion that Verlander low key had Giants envy and wanted to pitch for them, or else he absolutely hated the place and wouldn't pitch there again if his life depended on it. Well, maybe we now know how he really felt. Buster Posey finally got his veteran SP although one who is unlikely to be quite the innings vacuum we hoped for. Verlander and the Giants agreed to a 1 yr/$15 M contract which seems to be pretty much the going rate for any pitcher with starting experience and a pulse this Hot Stove League season. In my mind I am thinking it's a 1 yr/$5 M contract for the pitcher and a $10 M bonus for the HOF cred which is OK by me. Here is his pitching line last year which was a struggle:
5-6, 5.48, 90.1 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9.
He missed time twice with injuries, shoulder inflammation in April and a neck problem in June-August. His ERA in the starts after coming back from the neck injury ballooned to 8.00. Maybe after an offseason to heal, he can revert to his 2023 form in which he made 27 starts and pitched 162 innings with a 3.31 ERA and don't forget he won a Cy Young Award as recently as 2022. I assume, as always, the deal is contingent on a physical exam. It wouldn't be the first time Verlander bounced back to have a sensational season after a seemingly career-ending injury. On the other hand, he is entering his age 42 season and nobody pitches forever.
So Justin Verlander joins a distinguished list of future Hall of Famers to wear a Giants uniform near the end of their careers including Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson. If you include non-pitchers there is Joe Morgan. If you include Hall of Very Good Players you can add in Dusty Baker, Reggie Smith and Orel Hershiser. In general they all played well and made the team better by their presence on the roster.
So fingers crossed that Verlander is healthy and gives the Giants at least a half season of solid pitching. That would take some heat off the Logan Webb and the young pitchers and buy the Giants some time to getting them seasoned and into situations where they can succeed. I would sure as heck rather see this contract than a long-term mega deal for Jack Flaherty and Verlander is probably more likely to be an upgrade for the rotation for however long he is healthy than my white whale, Cal Quantrill. The deal also leaves Buster with a little room to add a budget veteran bat like a Jesse Winker, Austin Hays or Ramon Laureano.
Its great to have Buster in charge making moves like signing Verlander that makes a lot of sense. Hes a future hall of famer who can slot as a #3 or #4 starter on a 1 year contract and be someone that young pitchers like Harrison , Birdsong, landon Roup, etc can learn valuable lessons from. Lets see if Buster can make another move to improve the hitting.
ReplyDeleteHi Doc! Not that my approval was required, but I am good with the giants signing Verlander. I am even more ok with this after reading this from MLB rumours regarding Verlander's pitching this past season.
ReplyDelete"Verlander averaged 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range in which he sat between 2022-23 but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Pitching at less than full strength could account for that dip. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not outlandish to expect his velocity to rebound."
If his stuff is sitting even close to this > nice.
But we will all have to hope he is fully healthy.
Richard in Winnipeg
Snell's 5-3 record last year cost the Giants $6.4MM per win — just 3 wins for Verlander and he'll be cheaper!
ReplyDeleteAnd maybe he'll b ewilling to Start at the end of the season.
Wonder if Kate Upton will travel with the team...
Just playing Devil’s Advocate…I think many were in agreement that the Giants needed a RELIABLE consistent starter, maybe even a mentor of sorts, for the coming season(s) to take the load off of Webb….IFFFFF everything breaks right for Verlander, he could be the guy that pays big dividends…..ANd I hope that comes true….But….if Verlander’s recent injuries and decay are the real deal, we just ended up getting an even. bigger Question Mark for the rotation. Bigger than Ray, than Hicks, bigger than the 3-4 unproven youngsters they will throw against the WaLL. Then there’s the issue of that 15 MIlL also likely taking the Giants out of the running for a desperately needed bat at 1B/DH or OF which would be acceptable if Verlander is the real deal this year, not acceptable if he is a bust . Very risky move in my book, we’ll see
ReplyDeleteAnd hey, maybe in their meetings with Sasaki, they found out that Sasaki said Verlander is his hero and would love to learn from and play with him!! (or somebody like him!)
SteveVA
Definitely risk involved which is why it's just a 1 year contract. The Giants track record with 1 or 2 years of Hall of Fame level players near the end of their careers is actually quite good. Yes, I am superstitious but that is a big reason why I am cautiously optimistic.
DeleteHall of Very Good Players is very funny.
ReplyDeleteThis Verlander guy could be great and he could be a dog. Hoping he's a great clubhouse guy for the kids to build off of. If so, that by itself, just about makes the deal worthwhile. (Upton factor aside)
Is it ironic that the Giants will take "baby steps" with a 42-year old to inch toward credibility?
ReplyDeleteAh, what's $15M these days?
Your "1 yr/$5 M contract for the pitcher and a $10 M bonus for the HOF cred" is spot on, except that maybe $5M of it is for mentoring.
I am confident in Buster's eyes and baseball acumen > Doc's right it is OK to be cautiously optomistiic. Hell we have to be cautiously optomistic that Lee's ok, hope Adames does not stub his foot in the shower, and that Chapman knows how to hold sharp implements when he is eating.
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping Trump does not invade Canada and then Canada has to invoke Nato Article 9 and then Britain France and Germany don't have to send troops to Canada.
Is it going to snow tomorrow? Hmm who knows!!
Richard in Winnipeg
Richard In winnipeg
I am for this move except it probably means the that the Giants won't go after Sasaki so hard. I think the Padres have the best chance at Roki Sasaki as I read he wants to play on the same team as Yu Darvish. A six man rotation of Webb, Ray, Sasaki, Verlander,. Hicks and Harrison would look good with Birdsong and Roup waiting in the wings when someone goes on the IL, which will happen with that rotation. So instead of Sasaki give Birdsong a chance.
ReplyDeleteAs far as hitters, Winker does not excite me as he has had two down years. I don't know much about Hays or Laureano. We shall see within a couple/three weeks.
Jesse Winker actually had the #44 highest wRC+ among qualifieed hitters in all of MLB last season. He's not much of a defender but wouldn't be bad as the strong side of a DH platoon while occasionally filling in the OF when needed.
DeleteI like the move even if it doesn’t work out its worth the gamble IMO. Thinking in these terms I am warming up to getting Profar and or Kim instead of Santander/Alonso/Bregman. Reasonable expecations I guess
ReplyDeleteWonder whether the Giants are waving the white flag in the Sasaki Sweepstakes. Maybe they heard that it wasn't going to happen.
ReplyDeleteI don't see how this moves impacts the Sasaki negotiations. If the Giants are lucky enough for Sasaki to choose them he costs essentially nothing. He would immediately be their #2 SP if not #1 and everybody else moves down the depth chart. I don't think the Giants could afford to wait for Sasaki's timeline. If he ends up going somewhere else by then it would be too late for a back up plan. But I expect they are still trying their best to convince him to sign with the Giants.
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