The Hot Stove is sizzling today. No sooner had Christian Walker signed with the Astros and Paul Goldschmidt with the Yankees than the D'Backs moved aggressively to fill their hole at 1B with Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians. The DBacks send Slade Cecconi RHP and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick to the Guardians.
D'Backs get:
Josh Naylor 1B.
2024: .243/.320/.456, 31 HR, 6 SB, 9.2 BB%, 16.6 K%, 633 PA, 2.3 fWAR.
Good hitter, bad body. Negative defensive metrics drag down his WAR value. Free Agent next offseason.
Guardians get:
Slade Cecconi RHP.
2024: (AAA): 4-2, 3.06, 47 IP, 10.34 K/9, 2.68 BB/9.
2024(MLB): 2-7, 6.66, 77 IP, 7.48 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.
Former #33 overall draft pick in 2020. I liked him from my predraft research. Excellent control but is command within the zone a problem? He gave up 16 HR in 77 IP. Maybe was too afraid of walking batters? Back of rotation pitching option for the Guardians.
Summary: D'Backs win the trade in the short term but downgrade their defense at 1B and only control Naylor's contract for 1 season. Cecconi's numbers could well improve with experience. Naylor would have been an interesting bridge to Bryce Eldridge but I get the feeling Buster Posey is not that into bridge contracts and 1 year rentals.
Then, no sooner had the news sprung on the Naylor trade but the Guardians reunited with Carlos Santana on a 1 yr/$12 M contract.
Carlos Santana 1B/DH:
2024: .238/.328/.420, 23 HR, 10.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 594 PA, 3.0 fWAR.
Santana had a solid season for the Twins in 2024 and actually had positive defensive WAR value at age 39. How much longer can he keep it up?
Summary: Assuming Josh Naylor was going to leave in free agency, the Guardians may have actually upgraded 1B for 2025 by trading him and signing Santana. Again the question is how much longer can Santana keep up this level of play? Santana has also been discussed in blogs as a possible bridge option at 1B for the Giants. I think Buster has other priorities and is likely to stick with LMWJ and a RH platoon bat for 1B until Bryce Eldridge is ready.
Seems like the Dbacks gave Cleveland a small pile of peanuts for Naylor. For that price I am a little upset we didn’t get him. Would have been a big offensive upgrade over LMJ or any of the other borderline major leaguers they have to fill one of the biggest holes in our lineup.
ReplyDeleteWell, the draft pick is not nothing and the Giants don't hold any tradeable draft picks.
DeleteDon't forget, the pick comes with about $1- 1.5 M in slot bonus money.
DeleteI’m not sure what the equivalent value would have been in prospects or proven major leaguers but I bet Doval would have gotten it done and maybe a lot less? It isn’t just Naylor its Bellinger and Tucker as well. They all seem to have been acquired for players who the Giants could have easily matched.
DeleteRight now our offense is missing production from 2 very important postions in 1B and DH. There are several options left in free agency and probably a few in trades but the options have decreased significantly. Maybe the plan isn’t to try to fix this team all in one year.
If Buster does want to do everything he can this offseason then he has work to do. He has already shown his competence in free agency with Adames and it would be nice to see an impact trade. This team is close to being interesting with a few more moves but if the plan is to hold tight for Eldridge in 2026 then I will try to wait patiently!
I am pretty sure Doval by himself would not have gotten Naylor. The draft pick is hard to compare with a player due to the slot bonus issue and teams value that added flexibility in the draft a lot. I can understand why Buster did not want any part of Bellinger's contract and I suspect there may be other reasons which I would rather not comment on he might not have put in a bid on him. The Astros got a nice haul for Tucker. Parades can start at 3B or 1B and Cam Smith is a darn good prospect who might rival Bryce Eldridge in value. Don't think the Giants wanted to try to top that package even if they could.
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