Outfield depth charts are complex due to increasing reliance on versatility and platoons but we'll try to sort out where the Giants currently stand at the 3 OF positions. The players are listed where I see their primary position while acknowledging that others can slide over and cover it.
MLB:
Mitch Haniger: .209/.266/.365, 6 HR, 6.6 BB%, 28.4 K%, 229 PA, fWAR= -0.2. Age 32. No Options. No arbitration. Under contract through 2025 @AAV of $14.5 M(can opt out after 2024). Haniger has one of the weirdest injury histories of all time and bad luck struck again in 2023. Haniger was supposed to hold down a full time gig in LF while providing a power bat in the middle of the order. Instead, he started the season almost a month late due to an oblique strain then suffered a right arm fracture from a HBP on June 13 and missed most of the rest of the season. At no time did he look comfortable at the plate and his swing timing seemed to be way off. Given his contract situation and history of producing when healthy I am putting him at the top of the Giants LF depth chart. He and the Giants have to hope he escapes the injury bug and gets settled back in at the plate in 2024.
Mike Yastrzemski: .233/.330/.445, 15 HR, 11.8 BB%, 25.3 K%, 381 PA, fWAR= 1.8. Age- 33. 3 Options. Arbitration Eligible(2'd year?). YtY tends to play wherever needed in the OF and ideally is a 4'th OF on a good team. He would likely be the first lefty-hitter option for LF if the Giants platoon Haniger or if Haniger were to be injured again.
Austin Slater: .270/.348/.400, 5 HR, 9.7 BB%, 28.0 K%, 207 PA, fWAR= 0.9. Age- 30. Arbitration eligible(final year). No Options. Slater hits quite well against LHP's but has brutal splits which severely limits his ideal playing time. Can play all 3 OF positions. Ideally a 5'th OF on a good team.
Blake Sabol: .235/.301/.394, 13 HR, 7.0 BB%, 34.0 K%, 344 PA, fWAR= 0.7. Age- 25. 3 Options. Arbitration Eligible 2026. Now that he is out from under the Rule 5 Draft restrictions, Sabol has 3 minor league options. There is toonder in the bat but he needs experience to harness it. Most likely MLB future is behind the plate. Best situation for him would be to use option year polishing his catching game in Sacramento but his lefty bat and positional versatility(such as it is) might win him the back up catcher job again in which case he is also a reserve LF option.
Luis Matos and Wade Meckler are also potential options but I think a lot would have to happen for them to move into any significant role. Conforto could also slide over from RF if he does not opt out of the second year of his contract.
AAA:
Trenton Brooks: AAA(Sacramento): .233/.382/.465, 6 HR, 18.9 BB%, 15.3 K%, 111 PA. AAA(Las Vegas): .299/.405/.529, 16 HR, 5 SB, 13.8 BB%, 14.6 K%, 412 PA. Age 28. Rule 5 Eligible. I think he is eligible for minor league free agency but is still listed on the AAA Sacramento roster. Similar profile to many others who have passed through The Churn. To my eye his power and K/BB numbers profile better than most. I would love to see him get a MLB shot but hard to see how he breaks through the chaos of the 40-man roster. Could gets lost the The Churn.
AA:
Ismael Munguia: .282/.356/.391, 6 HR, 16 SB, 7.2 BB%, 13.4 K%, 335 PA. Age- 25. Rule 5 Eligible. The high contact/low power profile does not fit LF but that seems to be his preferred defensive position.
A+:
Jared Dupere: .246/.313/.428, 12 HR, 11 SB, 7.4 BB%, 38.0 K%, 392 PA. Age- 24. Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2024. 13'th round draft pick in 2021. Has some pop in his bat but also a lot of swing and miss.
Matt Higgins: A: .309/.400/.492, 9 HR, 9 SB, 11.0 BB%, 20.9 K%, 301 PA. A+: .204/.289/.327, 3 HR, SB, 7.8 BB%, 26.6 K%, 128 PA. Age- 24. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025. Undrafted FA from 2022. Higgins hit well in a conservative placement in A ball. More challenged after promotion to A+. Later season promotions are tough because the players at the higher level are more experienced as the season progresses. I see late promotions as a chance to be exposed to the higher level of competition to give the prospect a head start on the next season.
Jairo Pomares: ACL: .308/.419/.385, 16.1 BB%, 29.0 K%, 31 PA. Age- 23. Rule 5 Eligible. Pomares was part of the "big 3" international signings of 2018 along with Marco Luciano and Luis Matos. Pomares might be the best pure hitter of the three but is defensively limited to LF and essentially lost all of 2023 apparently due to injury.
A:
Scott Bandura: ACL: .400/.524/.667, HR, 23.8 BB%, 28.6 K%, 21 PA. A: .241/.364/.405, 2 HR, 3 SB, 15.2 BB%, 26.3 K%, 99 PA. Age 22. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2026. 22 yo. Giants 7'th round draft pick out of Princeton in 2023. Intriguing size at 6'4", 190 lbs. I expect him to start next season back in SJ but move up quickly with a strong performance. Fun fact: Scott was the catcher on the Little League World Series championship team that Mo'ne Davis pitched for.
P. J. Hilson: .247/.283/.420, 10 HR, 12 SB, 3.9 BB%, 17.6 K%, 307 PA. Age- 23. Rule 5 Eligible. Tooled up but raw prospect drafted in the 6'th round in 2018. Starting to look like a player but is it too little too late?
Alexander Suarez: .245/.310/.353, 6 HR, 22 SB, 5.4 BB%, 27.2 K%, 404 PA. Age- 21. Rule 5 Eligible. Another prospect with tools but will he ever hit enough? I read somewhere he is Luis Matos' cousin.
Biggest trend in every prospect covered so far and even the ones that haven’t been covered yet is lack of power. We don’t have a single player who is a lock to be a future 30 HR a year guy. None of them seem to be high average guys either and nobody stands out as having elite speed that could lead to a top of the order run producer. I also don’t see anyone that could be projected as a golden glove candidate. There isn’t much to get excited about in terms of results which is very similar to the entire MLB roster of average at best bats. It has been said before but we need stars and I don’t see any.
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree with much of this comment. FZ seems to have a type and it's not necessarily one that projects all that well to the MLB level. There is almost no such thing as a lock when it comes to prospect projections but I would point to Marco Luciano, Bryce Eldridge and Rayner Arias as potential future 30+ HR hitters.
DeleteI also think Luis Matos has power potential. He squared up a lot of balls that died at the base of the fence. He's still quite young with room to fill out and get stronger.
DeleteIf I could be permitted return to the infield for a moment, I’d like to suggest that Casey Schmitt is being undervalued as a prospect. I based this on eyeballs, mostly, and conclude that he may well have a career somewhere between Matt Williams and Brandon Crawford.
ReplyDeleteBack when Williams was coming up I had occasion to see him a lot at the ‘Stick and on TV. Williams was highly touted, a 1st rounder. He plainly had pop, but we suffered for years through his pitch recognition and learning curve; a staggering number rallies ended with Williams swinging in vain at a slider 6” outside and low. He Williams also was clearly a plus 3B and played a credible SS, though he was top-heavy through the shoulders and really looked built for 3B and power. I remember my late father commenting that Williams looked like a promising backup defensive shortstop but might never hit.
Williams made the trips to and from Fresno many times as the team tried to figure out what do with him. My whole family’s hearts went out to him as he’d take the field with his head down after striking out to end an inning. Here’s what his numbers looked like his first three years (ages 21-23):
1987 266 PA, .188/.240/.339 OPS .578 8 HR, 68 SO, 16 BB
1988 170 PA, .205/.251/.410 OPS, .662 8 HR, 41 SO, 8 BB
1989 311 PA .202/.242/.455 OPS .697 18 HR, 72 SO, 14 BB
Then there was Crawford, who came up with his plus-plus glove and arm and a hope that he might hit a bit. His first year (age 24) looked like this:
2011 220 PA, .204/.288/.296, OPS .584, 3 HR, 31 SO, 23 BB
Now comes Schmitt. His first year (age 24) looked like this:
2013 277 PA, .206/.255/.324 OPS.580, 5 HR, 65 SO, 13 BB
Looks familiar. To be sure, we know that Williams finally took off like a rocket starting in 1990, and Crawford steadily improved and had some decent years with the bat, and we can’t assume that Schmitt will take off like them. But that’s where an old man can rely on his eyes. Schmitt moves around the infield like nobody (at least for his size) I’ve seen for a while and has the best arm I’ve seen since Crawford. He looks like a natural. There’s a lot of chin-wagging commentary that his future is at 3B, and while I agree he’s a probable GG at 3B, I think he would be a plus SS if given the chance. And while he’s not likely to approach Williams for power, I suspect he may end with a better BA/OBP, and may hit more and with more power than Crawford. His problem isn't hitting per se -- he barrels up strikes well -- but pitch recognition and discipline, both of which can be learned. His bat is likely to play well at SS, obviously, though less clearly at 3B.
So while I’ll be interested to see Luciano start 2024 at SS and Schmitt to back up around the IF (with a trip or two to Sacto possible), it wouldn’t surprise me if Schmitt ends up the starting SS in the longer term. I still think the delicacy of Luciano’s back may keep him from staying at short, but hopefully his bat will play elsewhere.
I definitely have not given up on Schmitt and his D will give him more chances and longer looks than the average prospect.
DeleteMitch Haniger has had a 30+ HR season, 39 in 2021.
ReplyDeleteConforto and Pederson have had 30+ HR seasons (33 & 36, respectively).
What a difference 2023 would have been had they connected anything like that!
Might still be playing tonight!
Kapler wouldn't have been fired, and FZ wouldn't be on a hot seat!
Sorry for going off topic, but I'm stunned that Baggs and Dennis Lin reported that the Padres granted a division rival like the Giants permission to interview Bob Melvin. If he becomes the new manager of the Giants, he brings instant credibility that the team really needs. We'll see what happens.
ReplyDeleteVery weird situation in San Diego as it's been widely reported Melvin and Preller pretty much hate each other and the only reason why neither of them were fired is because the owner is too cheap to eat either contract. If Melvin were to accept the Giants managing job, the owner would be off the hook for his contract and might even get a low level prospect or cash as compensation for a lateral move.
DeleteBob Melvin is certainly a competent MLB manager who should be more orthodox than Gabe Kapler at handing player and clubhouse issues and be more conventional in his deployment of players and in-game strategies. On the other hand, the Padres severely underachieved last year and their clubhouse did not seem to be exactly a Kumbaya party either.
Delete"Padres severely underachieved last year and their clubhouse did not seem to be exactly a Kumbaya party either."
DeleteJust so Doc. Am surprised this doesn't tap the brakes a bit on Melvin as savior.
Agree, the Giants should at least ask Melvin what happened in San Diego.
DeleteBaggs mentioned today that the Padres problems may have caused by the phanatic nature of how Padres GM AJ Preller runs things which filtered down to their clubhouse. It didn't help that Preller and Melvin didn't get along either. One of the keys to the Giants past success was how Sabean and Bochy worked well together.
DeleteI was never a fan of Kapler but it seems a little weird for the Giants to hire a new manager and keep Farhan. The lineup is a embarrassingly bad, and that falls on Farhan. If they have another repeat of 2022 and 2023, I can't see the ownership group resigning Farhan.
ReplyDeleteKapler had to go because of his chaotic on-field management and disengaged clubhouse management, but the problems run deeper than just Kapler's management. The farm system is better than it was when Farhan took over but only marginally so. The Churn is stuck in the sand and spinning its wheels. The 40-man roster is a cluster*** of mediocrity and not quite ready for prime time rookies and prospects which leaves little room for upgrading. That's all on Farhan. That plus the fact that Kapler was Farhan's hire is reason enough to clean house and get a new POBO to dig them out of the sand. Besides that, dammit, I want Kim Ng to be the POBO of the team I root for!
DeleteAgree those were good reasons to clean house. Kim Ng would be a good replacement. She had a better trade deadline then FZ trading for Josh Bell and Jake Burger. She did turn down interviewing for Red Sox PoBO. It' was reported that some candidates didn't like the turnover in the Red Sox front office. Dave Dombroski was fired after 5 years and Chain Bloom 4 years . She might not want to interview for Giants POBO if it opens up .
DeleteOne of the few times I disagree with you doc. Keep Zaidi around. I am roughly happy with the direction of the team. I think the orgs problems are more due to ownership than Farhan.
Delete- Fan