The Giants have 5 veteran SP returning to the roster, including an ace or #1 SP with several other promising young pitchers who appear to be on the cusp of promising MLB careers. They are looking to add a second ace, which they need but that makes sorting out the rest of the roster more complex.
MLB:
Logan Webb R: 11-13, 3.25, 216 IP, 8.08 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 62.1 GB%, fWAR= 4.9. Age- 26. Under Contract 5 yr/$90 M through 2028. Webb is a true ace, a #1 SP. He's trying to assert himself and become a team leader. I am not sure if he understood how much weight his public words have. I bet he does now. From everything we know, his words were needed.
Alex Cobb R: 7-7, 3.87, 151.1 IP, 7.79 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 57.6 GB%, fWAR= 1.8. Age- 36. 1 year club option for $10 M. Giants will almost certainly pick up the option unless the medicals on his hip are bad. Cobb was a co-ace in the first half but seemed to wear down, especially after extending his pitch count in a near no-hitter(not the first time we've seen that happen to a Giants pitcher). He ended the season with a sore hip that was described as an impingement and was in obvious discomfort his last 2-3 starts. Addendum: And just like that, no sooner had I written this than the Giants announced Cobb would undergo surgery for a labrum tear and impingement of his hip and is not expected to be ready to start the season.
Sean Manaea L: 7-6, 4.44, 117.2 IP, 9.79 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, fWAR= 1.1. Age- 31. 1 year player option for $12.5 M for 2024. Despite his slow start to 2023, I think you have to count Manaea as another successful pitching reclamation project for the Giants coaches. He gained about 3 MPH on his FB which he maintained all season and came on strong in the second half. Kapler was slow getting him back into a traditional SP role. Seems like an obvious opt-out but the pitching side of the free agent class is strong which my make him think twice about it.
Ross Stripling R: 0-5, 5.36, 89 IP, 7.08 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, fWAR= -0.3. Age- 33. 1 year player option for $12.5 M. When Stripling and Manaea signed identical contracts, Stripling seemed like the less risky of the two(although neither was particularly risky in terms of money). But Stripling unexpectedly had a terrible season, then expressed unhappiness with his role while admitting he did not pitch well enough to opt out of the second year of his contract. Both he and the Giants need to come to camp with open minds about what his role will be in 2024, if any. At this point he can't be counted on for anything.
Anthony Desclafani R: 4-8, 4.88, 99.2 IP, 7.13 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, fWAR= 1.0. Age- 33. Final year of contract at $12 M in 2024. Tony D did not pitch particularly well and his season ended early with a elbow flexor strain. I found a reference saying he seems fully recovered and expects to have a normal offseason. Potential to be a solid #4 or #5 SP if fully healthy.
Kyle Harrison L: AAA: 1-3, 4.66, 65.2 IP, 14.39 K/9, 6.58 BB/9. MLB: 1-1, 4.15, 9.09 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, fWAR= -0.1. Age- 22. 3 Options. Harrison had some electric performances and some rough ones. Finished up with 5 scoreless frames against the Dodgers. Dramatic improvement in walk rate lends credence to theory the automatic strike zone in AAA was squeezing him. Giants may want him to work on his game back in AAA a bit but he seems ready to stick.
Tristan Beck R: AAA: 3-3, 5.88, 26 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.85 BB/9. MLB: 3-3, 3.92, 85 IP, 7.20 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, fWAR= 0.4. Age- 27. 2 Options. Beck looked dominant at times but performances were inconsistent and Kapler didn't seem to have much faith in him. Seems like a better option for back-end SP than either Stripling or DeSclafani. Allowed just 1 run in 5 IP against the Dodgers in his final appearance of the season.
Keaton Winn R: AAA: 0-6, 4.81, 58 IP, 10.24 K/9, 4.03 BB/9. MLB: 1-3, 4.68, 42.1 IP, 7.44 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 58 GB%, fWAR= 0.2. Age- 25. 2 Options. Devastating FB/Split Change when he's on. Also seems like a better rotattion option than Stripling or Tony D.
Sean Hjelle R: AAA: 3-7, 6.00, 93 IP, 6.77 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 56.2 GB%. MLB: 2-1, 29 IP, 9.62 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 53.3 GB%, fWAR= 0.1. Not sure how Hjelle can have an fWAR of 0.1 and Kyle Harrison a -0.4 but there you have it. Hjelle didn't pitch well enough to dig himself out of Kapler's doghouse. Finished the season with 7 scoreless IP over 3 appearances with 6 K's and 1 BB. May be a trade candidate.
AAA:
Mason Black R: AA: 1-5, 3.57, 63.0 IP, 11.86 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. AAA: 3-4, 3.86, 60.2 IP, 10.68 K/9, 4.60 BB/9. Age-23. Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2024. Big loose-armed righty who seemed unfazed by the terrors of pitching in the PCL. Should be ready to start his first MLB game in 2024 but will it be for the Giants?
Kai-Wei Teng R: AA: 1-3, 4.75, 47.1 IP, 12.93 K/9, 3.80 BB/9. AAA: 6-5, 4.22, 79 IP, 10.94 K/9, 5.47 BB/9. Age- 24. Rule 5 Eligible Now. Jumbo righty with apparently great stuff. Double-digit K rates through most of minor league career. High walk rates and high BABIP's hold him back but results not bad for PCL.
AA:
Carson Whisenhunt L: A: 0-0, 3.29, 13.2 IP, 13.17 K/9, 2.63 BB/9. A+: 1-0, 1.42, 25.1 IP, 12.79 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. AA: 0-1, 3.20, 19.2 IP, 12.36 K/9, 5.03 BB/9. Age- 23. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025. Crafty lefty with the 70 changeup. Blew through 3 levels before being shut down with an elbow sprain. Word is he should be ready for spring training.
Carson Seymour R: 5-3, 3.99, 112.2 IP, 9.11 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.72. Age-24. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2024. Big strong RHP who came over from the Mets for Darin Ruf. Should be ready to take his extreme groundball tendencies to higher levels.
Hayden Birdsong R: A: 0-0, 2.16, 41.2 IP, 15.12 K/9, 4.75 BB/9. A+: 2-2, 3.25, 36 IP, 11.50 K/9, 2.25 BB/9. AA: 0-3, 5.48, 23 IP, 12.91 K/9, 5.09 BB/9. Age- 22. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025. Power righty who hit a bit of a wall after promotion to AA which is where he should start out in 2024.
A+:
Jack Choate L: A: 3-1, 2.30, 47 IP, 12.83 K/9, 3.64 BB/9. A+: 0-2, 2.14, 21 IP, 8.57 K/9, 2.14 BB/9. Age- 22. Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2025. Big lefty. Fangraphs only rates FB as a 30 but 55 slider and 55 changeup. Will it play at higher levels? Used mostly as a SP but could have more of a reliever profile.
Trevor McDonald R: 3-1, 0.96, 37.2 IP, 9.32 K/9, 1.91 BB/9. Age- 22. Rule 5 Eligible Now. Late start to season presumably due to injury. Sensational results especially after promotion to A+. Probably should be protected in Rule 5 draft although FZ tends to be very conservative with his offseason 40-man roster adds.
Hayden Wynja L: A: 4-2, 3.98, 54.1 IP, 11.26 K/9, 2.98 BB/9. A+: 3-4, 4.40, 43 IP, 9.84 K/9, 4.19 BB/9. Age- 25. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025. Undrafted FA. 6' 9" lefties don't grow on trees. Best pitcher per fangraphs is a 60 slider.
A:
Gerelmi Maldonado R: 1-1, 4.71, 65 IP, 11.22 K/9, 5.54 BB/9. Age- 19. Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2025. Hard throwing RHP who needs to develop his command and secondary stuff.
Joe Whitman L: ACL: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9. A: 1-0, 3.18, 5.2 IP, 14.29 K/9, 3.18 BB/9.
Age- 22. Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2026. Giants Third round draft pick in 2023. Promising start to pro career in extremely SSS at low levels. Likely will start out 2024 in A+.
This is far from an exhaustive list of Giants SP prospects. I've tried to include the ones I think have the best shot at eventually becoming a MLB SP for each level. The category is an obvious strength of the organization with ace level talent at the MLB level the only area where the depth is shallow. Free agent class is weak for hitters and strong for pitchers. One proposed offseason strategy is to sign a couple of frontline SP's in free agency and trade from prospects to acquire a couple of bats.
The AAA BB/9 rates relative to AA and MLB are astounding. Can't wait for the ABS (apologies for all the abbrevs) in the bigs, but that has be fixed ASAP (couldn't help myself).
ReplyDeleteNo love for Landen Roupp?? He's a little old (25) but all he did was dominate to a tune of a 1.74 ERA. He must have had an injury because his season ended at the end of June, just as they were ramping up his innings.
ReplyDeleteI think I said it's not an exhaustive list.
DeleteDitto on Landen Roupp Doc. FG has him #8, with a 45 grade, ahead of a bunch of guys you listed. MLB Pipeline has him at #15.
DeleteAlso, I know it's difficult to peg, but Reggie Crawford's gotta be on the list even just from pure potential. Not sure if the same goes for Eldrige no the pitching side.
I have The Whiz, Seymour and Birdsong higher than Roupp and I'd still be typing the post if I included everybody. Reggie Crawford has yet to pitch more than 2 innings in any appearance. Eldridge hasn't pitched in professional ball yet. Come on guys! I said it's not an exhaustive list!
DeleteWas Avila's "perfect" W-L just an anomaly? Thr Rule-5 pick by CWS wasn't "bad" in the Spring but not good enough to make a not very good staff – is he Rule 5 again? Perhaps SF can trade him to CWS (or somewhere) this time and get a prospect?
ReplyDeletePartly an anomaly but also partly due to how he was used: Multi-inning, middle-inning reliever. Yes, he is Rule 5 Eligible again and Giants probably won't add him to 40-man roster.
DeleteAtrocious starting 5. Contrast this with the dynasty seasons. If I were them, I'd first, cut line on both Desclafani and Cobb. Neither will amount to anything in 24. Might as well set them adrift right now.
ReplyDeleteI'm intrigued in seeing what Beck and Harrison might do over an entire season. I'm assuming that Wood is no longer a factor. I say, give Madbum a flyer. Find another journeyman and wait for some kids.
If money is a limiting factor I would not exercise Cobb's option even if the net gain is just $8 M. I don't have much faith in Tony D but no harm in bringing him to camp and seeing if he's healthy.
DeleteIt seems that the River Cats SP's were limited to 4+ or fewer innings with many of the 25 pitchers who did start at least 1 game pitching much fewer innings (per start).
ReplyDeleteIs this phenomena ordained by the Giants attitude or is it because it's so difficult to pitch in the PCL?
There also were no CG's for Richmond's 12 SP's. It seems the SP's there went deeper, perception or fact?
CG's are a relic from the past: There has not been a CG in this post season. The 2023 MLB leader had just 3. There hasn't been a pitcher with double-digit CG's since 2011, and there hasn't been more than 1 in any year since 1998.
The last World Series complete game was thrown by Johnny Cueto in 2015 Game 2.
Will there ever be another?
My impression is the Giants philosophically don't see value in stretching pitchers beyond 4-5 innings. I don't agree with that philosophy and maybe that will change now that Kapler is gone, but it seems pretty clear that is their opinion.
DeleteSo the last three winning WS managers have been Bochy, Baker, and Snitker. Must all be number crunchers, right?
ReplyDeleteHowever they did it, sure hope Melvin manages like them.
Good try. Rangers, Astros have been very heavily analytical clubs for a very long time. John Hart was at the heart of the analytical revolution. Alex Anthopoulos is also from the analytical background of Toronto. Perhaps the players of these teams had more of a say on who's won championships than the managers?
DeleteEvery team uses data to inform on-field strategy and decisons. It not a matter of one or the other but to what degree. I think we all agree FZ and Kap took it to the extreme, apparently with a disengaged attitude toward the players as human employees. I think the disengaged human resource management style is what got Kap in trouble more than his use of data and in-game strategy, although I think an amplifying feedback loop between chaos on the field and chaos in the clubhouse eventually developed.
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