Luis Matos OF. DOB: 1/28/2002. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 160 lbs. IFA 2018.
2022(ACL): .429/.500/1.000, HR, 12.5 BB%, 12.5 K%, 8 PA.
2022(A+): .211/.275/.344, 11 HR, 11 SB, 6.6 BB%, 16.0 K%, .226 BABIP, 407 PA.
2022(AFL): .233/.280/.361, 2 HR, SB, 5 BB, 20 K, 93 PA.
Last year this time there was a lot of buzz about Matos being the Giants CF of the future after he destroyed the A Cal League at age 19. Unfortunately the transition to A+ ball did not go smoothly and he struggled to find traction all season. Looking at his stat line it's not hard to find the problem: He swings too much! That approach is great for contact and keeping K's down but it leads to a lot of weak contact and suppresses BABIP. He started off the AFL hot but cooled off and his line ended up looking similar to his A+ line.
Early in the offseason, we heard reports that the Giants are planning to assign Matos to AA in 2023 despite his struggles at lower levels. I guess I'm not convinced that is going to happen and even less sure it would be the right thing to do. AA is generally a brutal awakening for a lot of hitting prospects and it's probably not the place you want Matos to be learning to improve his pitch selection.
Most analysts still seem optimistic he has the tools to succeed but I am less so. We've seen a lot of prospects put up great numbers at lower levels with this approach only flame out at higher levels and it seems to be much harder to change than it seems like it should be. Francisco Peguero and Gary Brown come to mind as unhappy comps. Whatever the level, 2023 is a critical year in Matos' development.
It'll be interesting to see what level Matos is assigned to. This debate is part of what makes prospect watching fascinating to follow. Matos stats + young age suggest that he should repeat A+ ball. Heard Dave Fleming on a knbr podcast say the Giants are maybe too cautious about promoting their own prospects too quickly, not believing in prospects skipping levels . Maybe they need to rethink this. I did hear a prospect analyst last season say he was surprised the Giants didn't promote Casey Schmidt sooner to AA Richmond.
ReplyDeleteCautious...promoting.
DeleteIntersting. Is that just one analyst plus Fleming, or some kind of general consensus? Even if only just a few in number, that does not mean the idea is not merited (no popularity contests in the realm of ideas). So, what is it? Do need more data? More discussion into this topic?
When I heard Fleming say that I wondered if he knew anyone familiar with the Giants thinking of handling development of their prospects. FZ mentioned that Cory Seager got 400 abs in the high minors before his call up. Then again Julio Rodriguez had 200 abs in AA ball before the mariners called him up. Interesting
DeleteComplicated question. I'm not expert on this but have followed prospects and their transitions closely for decades now. Here are some things I believe based on those observations: 1. Elite talent will play at any level and any age so players like Willie Mays, Miguel Cabrera, Ronald Acuna Jr and Julio Rodriguez can pretty much go straight to the majors without missing a beat. 2. For most prospects, Brian Sabean's 2000 minor league AB's before promotion to majors rule is probably pretty close to accurate. 3. A player who dominates AA and AAA but then struggles out of the gate in the majors will likely not benefit much from going back and facing less challenging competition in the minors. He either needs more time to settle in a the MLB level or he's just reached his ceiling and won't ever make it. I make exceptions for players who needed exposure at the MLB level to identify a specific deficiency and can work in that in a less challenging, pressure-filled environment.
DeleteSo far, it appears to me that FZ and company do not like prospects skipping levels but are willing to promote quickly if performance warrants it. I would point to Casey Schmitt, Vaun Brown and Landon Roupp as exhibits from last season.
DeleteThanks Doc. It'll be interesting to see what level Kyle Harrison starts at if he has a good spring training. He's a special talent but I hope he gets the chance to dominate AAA 1st before getting called up. He's a high school draftee who moved up quickly so don't rush him to pitch with the big club. Hope he spends 2 months in the minors before the call up which could mean the veterans are pitching well so they don't need to call him up too fast.
ReplyDelete