State of the Marlins

The Miami Marlins have had an extreme boom and bust roller-coaster ride since joining the NL as an expansion team in 1993.  They have won two championships and have had at least 4 distinct "firesales" where they trade or fail to re-sign all of their expensive players, which means all of their good players.  The franchise currently appears to be near the beginning of a longterm rebuilding phase despite lingering economic and legal fallout from the disastrous ownership of Jeffrey Loria.

Ownership:  If you want to read about a microcosm of what is wrong with the current American socio-economic system, you should read an article entitled Miami Marlins Team Ownership History on sabr.org linked to the left.  Oh my!  It remains to be seen whether the current ownership group fronted by former Yankee great Derek Jeter can rebuild its reputation and become good citizen-owners, but after reading this piece, you really have to wonder.

Grade D.

Management:

Minority Owner Derek Jeter is the CEO and seems to have a lot of input into baseball decisions.  Michael Hill is the President of Baseball Operations.  Don "Two Visits" Mattingly(or is it Donny Two Times?) is the Field Manager.  The Marlins roster is starting to show some signs of life but it's still too early to tell if they are headed in the right direction longterm.

Grade D+

Current Roster:

Starting Eight:  Jorge Alfaro C, Jesus Aguilar 1B, Isan Diaz 2B, Jonathan Villar 3B, Miguel Rojas SS, Corey Dickerson LF, Lewis Brinson CF, Brian Anderson RF.

Bench:  Francisco Cervelli C, Garrett Cooper 1B, Harold Ramirez OF, Jon Berti UT, Matt Joyce OF.

Starting Rotation:  Sandy Alcantara RHP, Caleb Smith LHP, Pablo Lopez RHP, Jose Urena RHP, Jordan Yamamoto RHP.

Bullpen:  Drew Steckenrider RHP(Closer), Brandon Kintzler RHP, Ryne Stanek RHP, Yimi Garcia RHP, Adam Conley LHP, Stephen Tarpley LHP.

Brian Anderson is the best position player.  Isan Diaz has shown promise as a prospect but had a rough introduction to the majors last year.  The Marlins added some lower cost veterans to keep the roster from being a complete dumpster fire.  The pitching staff is young with some promise.  The bullpen is stronger than the rotation.  Overall, still not a strong roster.

Grade D.

Farm System:

The farm system is in better shape than it was when the current management took over.  RHP Sixto Sanchez is the top prospect per MLB.  Last year's first round draft pick JJ Bleday is #2.  I really liked #8 LHP Trevor Rogers a couple of years ago in the draft.  Other than that, the Marlins have emphasized toolsy HS draftees who take a long time to develop.

Grade C

Scouting the Draft: First Round Tiers- High School Hitters

Just a note before we get started, I added LHP Burl Carraway to the College Pitching 1C tier.  There is a large peloton of HS hitters worthy of consideration for the top half of round 1, but the pickings think out after that before you get another tier who would be more appropriated for Round 2 and beyond.  Let's break it down:

1A:

None. Again, unless the Tigers are hunting for a significant under-slot deal, I don't see any other demographic challenging Tork and Austin Martin for the top tier.

1B:

Ed Howard SS
Tyler Soderstrom C
Zac Veen OF
Austin Hendrick OF
Robert Hassell OF
Pete Crow-Armstrong OF

Zac Veen is at the top of most draft rankings from this demographic.  He's a tall, lanky lefty hitter who reminds people of a young Christian Yelich.  That is probably very unfair to Veen.  I mean, how many tall lanky lefty HS hitters turn into Christian Yelich?   I actually think all 6 of these have an approximately equal case.  I've kind of settled on Howard and Soderstrom due to positional strength as PC-A is the only one of the OF's who really projects as a CF.  I could see a scenario where the Giants have their choice of all 6 at #13 but it's more likely 1 or 2 will be off the board by then.  Hassell has a sweet swing and probably the best hit tool and PC-A is the fastest and most likely to be a future MLB CF.  Both Hassell and PC-A are committed to Vandy which may make teams shy away, especially this year.

1C:

Jordan Walker 3B
Dylan Crews OF
Carson Tucker SS

First of all, I really like Jordan Walker a lot.  He reminds me of a more muscular version of Jo Adell.  I mean, is that even possible?  There are a lot of questions about his swing and future contact abilities which keep him out of the top half of the first round rankings.  Earlier in the draft cycle, Dylan Crews drew comps to Mike Trout.  Right now he's drawing more to Christian Arroyo.  Carson Tucker's older bro is SS Cole Tucker, a former underslot deal first round selection by the Pirates who has taken his time developing but may still be an impact player.  Carson's stock seems to be rising as one of the few draft prospects who look like they can stick at SS.

There are quite a few more HS hitters I have my eye on but they would all be reaches before round 2 starts.  It's looking like we will have more than enough first round tier prospects for the 37 first and competitive balance rounds but not enough for the Giants to be guaranteed a first round talent at #49.

State of the Cardinals

The St Louis Cardinals are one great "legacy" franchises in MLB a list that also includes the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Reds, Phillies and Pirates in the NL.  The Cardinals are one of those teams that seems to have fans everywhere who say they are fans because their dads or granddads were fans before them.  They continue to be a successful franchise with a recently build stadium that required relatively little public funding(in the form of a loan) and almost annual visits to the postseason. 

Ownership:  Bill DeWitt Jr is the son of a previous MLB owner and executive.  He has been principle owner of the Cardinals since 1995.  A big part of his business plan is roster building and maintenance through the farm system and player development, something the organization is frequently lauded for.  DeWitt has been willing to supplement the homegrown roster with judicious free agent signings when appropriate.

Grade A.

Management:  Here's an interesting story:  Cardinals GM John Mozeliak got his start in MLB with a gig as a fly-fishing guide for RHP Bryn Smith in Colorado.  Smith helped get him a clubhouse job and he eventually became an assistant for assistant GM Walt Jocketty.  He followed Jocketty to St Louis and took over as GM when Jocketty was essentially fired after Jeff Luhnow was promoted over him in 2007.  Mozeliak has won 3 Executive of the Year honors and the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011,  have made the postseason 6 times and have posted a winning record in every season of his tenure.

Grade B+

Current Roster: 

Starting Eight:  Yadier Molina C, Paul Goldschmidt 1B, Kolton Wong 2B, Tommy Edman 3B, Paul DeJong SS, Tyler O'Neill LF, Dylan Carlson CF, Dexter Fowler RF.

Bench:  Matt Wieters C, Matt Carpenter IF, Brad Miller IF, Lane Thomas OF, Harrison Bader OF.

Starting Rotation:  Jack Flaherty RHP, Dakota Hudson RHP, Miles Mikolas RHP, Adam Wainwright RHP, Kwan Kim LHP.

Bullpen:  Jordan Hicks RHP, Andrew Miller LHP, Geovanny Gallegos RHP, Ryan Helsley RHP, John Brebbia RHP, Tyler Webb LHP, John Gant RHP, Carlos Martinez RHP.

This roster is rapidly developing some serious age issues although young players like Dylan Carlson continue to break in.  Will the transition to an all new generation happen in time?

Grade B

Farm System: 

Top prospect Dylan Carlson is ready now and should be a star.  #2 Nolan Gorman has prodigious power but is a couple of years away.  #3 is newcomer LHP Matthew Liberatore obtained in a trade with the Rays.  #5 LHP Zack Thompson should develop into a solid mid-rotation SP and be a fast mover if he can continue to avoid the injury bug that plagued him in HS and college.  This is a solid system and the Cardinals have historically developed their prospects well.

Grade B.

Scouting the Draft: First Round Tiers- College Pitching

This draft is the flip of last year's when college hitting was quite deep and pitching was paper thin.  This year's is quite deep in everything but college hitting with college pitching perhaps the deepest.  Again, we will break down first round talent into 1A(candidate for #1 overall), 1B(top 15) and 1C(Top 37- first round + Competitive Balance).  These are my rankings, not necessarily where I think players will be drafted.

1A:  None.  College hitters Torkelson and Martin have this level locked up.

1B:

Max Meyer RHP
Emerson Hancock RHP
Cole Wilcox RHP
Asa Lacy LHP
Bryse Jarvis RHP
Reid Detmers LHP
Cade Cavalli RHP
Bobby Miller RHP

Garrett Crochet?
JT Ginn?

As you can see, this is a deep group with Crochet and Ginn being wild cards due to injury concerns.  Both are easy 1B talents without the injuries.  Crochet did come back and pitch 3 innings just before the shutdown but shoulder pain is scary and teams will want to thoroughly review the medicals.  Ginn had TJ surgery so there is a reasonable probability he can get back to 100% or more, but it's not a given. I have a feeling he will wind up dropping and staying in school.

Max Meyer does not have classic pitcher's size, but has an ace level fastball and a wipeout slider.  He's the closest thing to an off-the-shelf MLB pitcher in the draft.  I am gradually warming up to Emerson Hancock and if you want a great combination of present stuff plus projectability from a college pitcher he's your guy.  I still think Cole Wilcox has the most awesome pitching frame I have seen in awhile and there is nothing wrong with his 2020 stat line, albeit in a small sample.  I am higher on him than most analysts.  Bryse Jarvis' stock is rising but I think he is still being underrated.  He really took his game to another level this spring and is right behind Meyer in terms of MLB readiness.  Think a more physical version of Aaron Nola.  I am not as high on Detmers as some.  His FB is pedestrian and I am not sure the big, slow Zitoesque curveball plays in the majors.  Cavalli and Miller both have big projectable frames and big fastballs with solid secondary pitches.

As you can see, even if you take Crochet and Ginn off the board, between the 6 college hitters I rated 1B or above and the 8 college pitchers here, the Giants are guaranteed to have a 1B college talent available at #13 if they want that safety in the pick. There are high school talents I might rank ahead of Detmers, Cavalli and Miller and I would personally stay away from Crochet and Ginn.

1C:

Slade Cecconi RHP
Chris McMahon RHP
Tommy Mace RHP
Carmen Mlodzinski RHP
Kyle Nicolas RHP
Jared Shuster LHP
Ian Bedell RHP
Tanner Burns RHP
Cole Henry RHP
Burl Carraway LHP
Franco Aleman RHP(JC)

These are all solid college pitchers who are reasonably safe picks with higher ceilings than what is available from college hitting in this range.  Kyle Nicolas is a physical beast from a smaller program who will need some development.  Ian Bedell's stock seems to be rising but is still underrated in my opinion.  He has a very intriguing mix if secondary pitches and enough fastball to make them play up.  Burl Carraway is a hard throwing LHP who projects as a reliever and has drawn comps to Billy Wagner but fear may be more like Tyler Jay.

So, even if we eliminate Crochet and Ginn from the mix, we have 17 college pitchers and 8 college hitters worthy of first round consideration.  That's 25 out of 37 picks and we haven't even touched the high school class which is also quite deep in both hitting and pitching.  The holy grail here is to identify at least 49 first round talents as the Giants pick at #49 on round 2.  We are well on the way!

State of the Pirates

After three consecutive second place seasons from 2013-2015, the Pirates are back into rebuilding mode and continue to be plagued by low payroll budgets.  They hit rock bottom in 2019 with a last place finish in the NL Central amid a flurry of clubhouse fights. Pirates fans have to hope a complete management makeover will eventually turn things around, but it all starts at the top. 

Ownership:  Robert Nutting is the principle owner.  He has received a good deal of scorn from Pirates oriented commentators who nicknamed him "Bottom Line Bob."  He finally cleaned house on the management team and made it clear he expects the new team to upgrade the analytics to find new forms of undervalued assets and win with limited budgets. It remains to be seen if he will open the purse strings if a new contending window presents itself.  BTW, Nutting is reported by moneyinc.com to be the 17'th richest owner in MLB at $1.1 Billion.

Grade D

Management:  As noted above this is a completely new management team from Team President on down to Field Manager.  The key man is Ben Cherington who you may recognize as the guy who succeeded Theo Epstein in Boston then didn't win another championship soon enough and was replaced himself by Dave Dombrowski.  It remains to be seen if Cherington is the guy to take the Pirates to the next level of baseball analytics.  New Field Manager Derek Shelton is largely unknown.

Grade C.

Current Roster: 

Starting Eight:  Jacob Stallings C, Josh Bell 1B, Adam Frazier 2B, Colin Moran 3B, Kevin Newman SS, Bryan Reynolds LF, Jarrod Dyson CF, Gregory Polanco RF.

Bench:  Luke Maile C, Erik Gonzalez IF, Phillip Evans IF, Guillermo Heredia OF, Jose Osuna OF.

Starting Rotation:  Chris Archer RHP, Joe Musgrove RHP, Trevor Williams RHP, Mitch Keller RHP, Derek Holland LHP, (Jameson Taillon RHP- likely to miss all or most of 2020 after surgery to repair flexor tendon and revise UCL).

Bullpen:  Keone Kela RHP(Closer), Kyle Crick RHP, Nick Burdi RHP, Robbie Erlin LHP, Chris Stratton RHP.

This seems like a roster which could contend with a few modest, medium cost additions.  Alas, it competes with the Giants for worst Current Roster in MLB.

Grade D.

Farm System:  #1 Mitch Keller is a lock for the 2020 rotation.  #2 Ke'Bryan Hayes is the son of former Giant 3B Charlie Hayes and has a 60 hit tool.  #3 O'Neil Cruz is a freak as a 6'7" shortstop who will almost certainly move to another position.  #7 Brennan Malone is a young RHP with a high ceiling.  #12 Cal Mitchell had a rough second half in 2019 but has a plus hit tool.  I have a personal rooting interest since he is my cousin's wife's nephew.....or something like that.  Former first round draft pick Cole Tucker SS has officially graduated from prospect status and is on the 40 man roster but was optioned to the minors.

Grade C+

Scouting the Draft: First Round Tiers- College Hitters

So, I am going to try something here which I hope will help clarify talent levels and where we might see players drafted.  I am going to divide the draft into the 4 major demographics:  College Hitters, College Pitchers, High School Hitters and High School Pitchers.  I will list all players I think deserve consideration to be drafted in the first round as Tier 1.  I will the subdivide the Tier 1 players into subgroups A, B, C with A denoting consideration for first overall or 1-1, B denoting top half of first round or top 2-15 and C denoting rest of first round and Competitive Balance round or 16-37.

We'll start with college hitters which our friend Covechatter determined give the best return on investment(ROI) based on career WAR.  Not surprisingly Tier 1 of college hitters tend to get drafted ahead of equally or more talented players from the other demographics.  Here are my Tier 1 college hitters for the 2020 draft:

1A:

Spencer Torkelson 1B
Austin Martin SS/3B/CF/2B.

These two are very close in overall expected ROI but I have settled on Tork due to the distinct possiblity that Martin may be limited to 2B in the majors.  There is close to zero chance of either of these players being available to the Giants at #13.

1B:

Nick Gonzalez 2B
Garrett Mitchell OF
Patrick Bailey C
Heston Kjerstad OF

Gonzalez is cut out of the same cloth as recent first rounders who appear to be successful picks, Keston Hiura and Nick Madrigal.  Question is strength of opposition and playing in an extreme hitter-friendly environment(New Mexico), but he also starred in the Cape Cod League.  Patrick Bailey is a switch-hitting offensive catcher who is also a plus defender.  His stock seems to be rising late in the draft cycle.  Kjerstad has been a very productive college hitter but may need a funky swing reworked and needs to unlock his raw power. Garrett Mitchell might have the best tools in the entire draft, but his power hasn't really shown up and medical re. his diabetes condition are essential.  There is probably no more than a 20% chance any of these player are still on the board for the Giants at #13 but should be strongly considered if they are.

1C:

Dillon Dingler C
Austin Wells C?

Dingler is extremely athletic and could probably play CF, but also should stick at catcher and should have a plus bat there.  As a bat-first catcher, Wells could be tier 1B, but many scouts don't think he is a pro catcher and may be limited to first base where he may not have enough power.  A team that thinks he can be developed at catcher or thinks he could play 3B or 2B or corner OF might bump him to Tier 1B.  I actually like him a lot and wouldn't be dismayed if the Giants took him at #13 although there should be better HS talent available.

That's it.  There will be more than 8 college hitters drafted in the top 37, but college hitting is the thinnest demographic in this draft and teams locked into college players due to signing/safety concerns will be reaching/over-drafting.

State of the Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have been hanging around the fringes of the the postseason for a few years now.  They invested in some serious talent before the 2018 season, but then announced they lost money in 2019 resulting in a pullback in payroll for 2020.  Let's break it down:

Ownership:  Mark Attanasio head up an investor group.  He made his stash running an investment firm and bought the Brewers from the Selig family in 2004.  He's operated about the way you would expect a smaller market owner to operate but drew some fire this past offseason when he claimed the BrewCrew "operated in the red" which many analysts felt was a misrepresentation of the true situation.

Grade C

Management:  GM David Stearns and Manager Craig Counsell generally get positive reviews for roster building and field managing respectively. Not outstanding but very competent.

Grade B

Current Roster:

Starting Eight:  Omar Narvaez C, Ryan Braun 1B, Keston Hiura 2B, Eric Sogard 3B, Orlando Arcia SS, Christian Yelich LF, Lorenzo Cain CF, Avisail Garcia RF.

Bench:  Manny Pina C, Brock Holt UT, Luis Urias IF, Ben Gamel OF, Jedd Gyorko IF.

Starting Rotation:  Brandon Woodruff RHP, Adrian Houser RHP, Brett Anderson LHP, Josh Lindblom RHP, Eric Lauer LHP.

Bullpen:  Josh Hader LHP(Closer), Brent Suter LHP, Freddy Peralta RHP, Corey Knebel RHP, Alex Claudio LHP, Corbin Burnes RHP, Ray Black RHP.

Eric Sogard, starting 3B?  Yikes!  I took this from MLB's Depth Chart for the Brewers.  Hope there is some competition for the position!  I would also say that any starting rotation with Brett Anderson listed as #3 is probably not elite, although there are several pitchers listed in the bullpen who could slide into the rotation so there is some depth.  Yelich is probably one of the top 5 players in all of baseball and Ryan Braun will become a whole lot more valuable with a universal DH. Will Keston Hiura join them in elite status?  Overall, it's bit tough to see this outfit contend for the postseason without further upgrades in the starting rotation.

Grade C+

Farm System:  Brice Turang is the top prospect but is a few years away.  Not much in the way of immediate help with the first 2020 ETA coming from LHP Drew Rasmussen at #9.

Grade C.

Scouting the Draft: Ed Howard Yes/No Smackdown

Hmm...I've been wanting to write a follow up post on draft prospect Ed Howard, who I already profiled and have not ranked highly on by boards, for awhile now, but I couldn't think of an angle for it.  Now, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs posted his first 2020 Mock Draft and who should show up on it to the Giants at #13, but......yep, Ed Howard!  So, is there some metaphysical convergence here of me thinking I might be selling Howard short and Eric Longenhagen mocking him to the Giants?  Let's break it down.

Ed Howard SS, HS.  Age on Draft Day:  18 yrs, 4 mos.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.  Verbal Commitment: Oklahoma

PG Stats:  6.76 60 yd dash.  88 MPH IF Throws.  95 MPH Exit Velocity. Capsule Scouting Report:  "Showed big potential with bat at WWBA and followed up with outstanding showing at PG National.  Sky is the limit for him."  Going into more detail in their 2019 National Showcase report, "...plays balanced and smooth...big range, very fast and sure hands, solid arm strength and very quick release from multiple arm angles, accurate throws."  "....simple repeatable load, same lightning quick hands drive the barrel, very good bat speed with loud contact and consistent hard loud barrel, line drive contact now with power to come.  Everything in his game is balanced, athletic and explosive and will continue to improve as he gets stronger."

In both my opinion and Longenhagen's scenario, all of the top tier college bats and arms are off the board by the time the Giants pick at #13 which leaves a choice of reaching for the next tier or taking advantage of a situation where multiple top tier HS players on both sides of the ball are lined up for the taking.  That seems like an easy choice but the tough part is deciding which of these terrific prospects to take.  So far in this scenario, the only HS prospects off the board are Zac Veen OF and Mick Abel RHP.  That leaves Austin Hendrick OF, Robert Hassell OF, Tyler Soderstrom C, Jared Kelley RHP, Nick Bitsko RHP from the HS ranks.  There is also Garrett Crochet LHP and Cade Cavalli RHP from the college ranks if the medicals pass muster.  There is also Ed Howard who I have been kind of ignoring in my rankings. 

First, a few more scouting comments:  Fangraphs(ranked #11):  "He projects as an everyday big league shortstop."  MLB Pipeline(ranked #15):  "....has a high baseball IQ and a knack for slowing the game on both sides of the ball."

So, here is the smackdown question:  Should the Giants have Ed Howard ranked as one of their top 13 draft prospects for 2020?  Here are the arguments:

Yes:  1.  Howard is by far the top prospect who is projected to stay at SS in the major leagues.  2.  While none of the tools are elite, all five are close to elite which makes the total package better than the sum of it's parts.  3.  He will be significantly younger on draft day than say, Austin Hendrick, who I also think the Giants have their eye on.  Early indications from last year's draft suggest the FZ regime values youth in HS prospects.  4.  While the power is not there now, Exit Velocity and the frame strongly suggest more in the tank.  5.  There are no comparable shortstops later in this draft while there are comparable corner bats and pitchers.  6.  Shortstop is a relative organizational need for the Giants.  Marco Luciano is not a lock to stay at SS and other SS prospects are way down in rookie leagues.

No:  1.  Do the Giants really need another IF prospect who is good at a lot of things, but not great at any?  2.  Giants biggest organizational needs are power and pitching.  3.  Giants already have an elite shortstop prospect in Luciano and have other's who may emerge down in the system.

DrB's Verdict:  Yes!  After reviewing Howard's videos again, I am impressed by the wiry strength and projectability in the body.  Combine that with the positional advantage, he should be ranked by the Giants in their top 13 2020 draft prospects.

State of the Reds

I would not say the Reds have gone all out to build a contender but they have reasonable, yet aggressive moves to field a competitive team.  Have they mortgaged their future to do it?

Ownership:  Bob Castellini has headed an 18 member investment group who own the Reds.  He's been in that position since 2006.  It's probably not reasonable to expect a team in a market as small as Cincinnati to spend huge amounts on free agents but compared to other small market teams, the Reds spent enough for a smart management team to build a competitive roster.  Current payroll per Cot's Baseball Contracts is about $147 M.

Grade B+.

Management:  GM Dick Williams has been GM since 2016.  He has installed state of the art analytics and brought in an analytical Manager in David Bell.  He has made aggressive yet prudent moves to build a contending roster.  The only area of concern is the farm system which has been depleted by some of those moves.

Grade A-

Current Roster:  Tucker Barnhart C, Joey Votto 1B, Mike Moustakas 2B, Eugenio Suarez 3B, Freddy Galvis SS, Jesse Winker LF, Nick Senzel CF, Nick Castellanos RF.

Bench:  Curt Casali C, Kyle Farmer IF, Alex Blandino IF, Shogo Akiyama OF, Scott Schebler OF?

Starting Rotation:  Luis Castillo RHP, Sonny Gray RHP, Trevor Bauer RHP, Anthony DeSclafini RHP, Wade Miley LHP.

Bullpen:  Raisel Iglesias RHP(Closer), Amir Garrett LHP, Michael Lorenzen RHP, Pedro Strop RHP, Robert Stephenson RHP, Cody Reed LHP, Lucas Sims RHP, Nate Jones RHP.

This is a well balanced roster without any glaring weaknesses.  The pitching, in particular, has a chance to be really good.  Castellanos and Moose add potent bats from each side of the plate to lengthen the lineup behind Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez which also takes some pressure off the younger hitters.

Grade B+

Farm System:  Dick Williams has not shied away from trading prospects and the loss of Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs hurts.  Nick Lodolo is a legit pitching prospect who should move fast.  Hunter Greene still has the high ceiling but must recover from the TJ surgery which has become almost obligatory for hard throwing HS pitching draftees.  Beyond that it's a pretty big dropoff.

Grade D+.

Scouting the Draft: Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin 1-1 Smackdown

This smackdown has nothing to do with the Giants as these two are near locks to go 1-2 overall in the June 10 draft, but it's an interesting debate as to which one the Tigers should take at #1 overall and who the Orioles should hope they pass on.  They are near polar opposites in player type with Spencer Torkelson the classic slugging first baseman and Austin Martin the tooled up athlete who can play any number of premium positions.  Here's the breakdown:

Spencer Torkelson 1B/DH, College(Arizona St).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 220 lbs.

2018:  .320/.440/.734, 12 2B, 25 HR, 38 BB, 44 K, 206 AB.
2019:  .351/.446/.707, 17 2B, 23 HR, 41 BB, 45 K, 242 AB.
2020:  .340/.598/.780, 4 2B, 6 HR, 31 BB, 15 K, 50 AB.

It is impossible to find fault with the offensive numbers.  On video, his size, body type, batting stance and swing are reminiscent of Steve Garvey, although the muscles packed into his proximal arms and legs look more like Dan Uggla.  Despite the bad body, Torkelson moves well around the 1B bag and there's even talk of him being able to play a passable 3B or LF, although I would say there is a 90% chance he is strictly a 1B/DH.  That profile, especially for a B-R, T-R is generally considered a big negative, but is likely to gain value in the near future when/if the universal DH comes to pass.

Austin Martin SS/3B/CF, College(Vanderbilt).  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 170 lbs.

2018:  .338/.452/.414, 14 2B, 1 HR, 22 SB, 35 BB, 46 K, 222 AB.
2019:  .392/.486/.604, 19 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 18 SB, 40 BB, 34 K, 268 AB.
2020:  .377/.507/.660, 6 2B, 3 HR, 3 SB, 10 BB, 2 K, 53 AB.

Superior athlete with 5 tools who has put up terrific numbers with the premiere college baseball program in the country and against the toughest competition(SEC).  Projects as more of a gap power/20-25 HR guy but the hit tool is tops.  There is not a lot of projection left in the body. The one oddity that gives some pause is he is consistently listed as a SS on draft rankings, but hasn't really played the position for Vandy.  He was expected to move from 3B to SS in 2020 but played mostly CF amid concerns about his arm strength.  CF is also considered a premium position but a SS with his hit tool would be supremely valuable.  Problem is I am not sure he quite has the speed for CF in the majors either.

Summary:  The fact is, neither of these players is the perfect 1-1 candidate.  There are miles of distance between them and, say, an ARod or a Ken Griffey Jr or a Bryce Harper to name three.  I would rank both of them behind Adley Rutschman from last year.  The strength of this draft is not in the top tier.  It's in the depth, especially college pitching.  On the other hand, both of them should be solid MLB regulars and allow their respective drafting teams to not worry about their roster spot for at least the first 6 years of their MLB careers, which will start sooner than later.

If I was convinced Martin was a MLB shortstop, it would be an easy call for him, but it's not clear he has the arm for SS and is not even clear he quite has the speed for CF.  He could easily end up at 2B which would not be a disaster, but also not what you are looking for in a 1-1.  With Tork, what you see is what you get.  A big muscular guy who's got a great hit tool which allows his tremendous raw power to play in games.  That's enough to make his positional limitations close to a non-factor.

DrB's Verdict:  Spencer Torkelson!

PS:  I went into this with Austin Martin ranked #1 on my board but after doing all the research, I changed my mind and will flip them in my next ranking.

State of the Cubs

The Cubs are in MLB's third largest market yet seem to be hamstrung by payroll limitations.  I guess now that they have their ring, they don't care?

Ownership:  So, I looked up the Cubs ownership and found a photo of managing owner Thomas Ricketts.  It looks like he and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz were separated at birth which is enough for me to drop them at least one letter grade right there.  On top of that, the Ricketts family had to scramble to distance themselves and the Cubs from a series of racist and anti-Muslim e-mails by dad Joe Ricketts in 2019.

More specific to their ownership of the Cubs, the family sits on a $ multi-billion fortune and operates in the third largest MLB market yet has apparenly clamped down on spending on a team that is still in a contending window that may not last much longer.

Grade D.

Management:  GM Theo Epstein is a legend for bringing championships to the Red Sox and Cubs, but now the Cubs seem to be in a very similar trajectory as the one that led to Theo's departure from the BoSox.  Maybe Theo can build a winner, but can't take it through more than one cycle?  What have you done for the Cubs lately, Theo?

Joe Maddon departs.  David Ross gets a shot at the job he's been auditioning for as a long-serving backup catcher with a reputation for being the glue that holds a clubhouse together and a mentor to younger players.

Grade C+

Current Roster:

Starting Eight:  Willson Contreras C, Anthony Rizzo 1B, Nico Hoerner 2B, Kris Bryant 3B, Javier Baez SS, Kyle Schwarber LF, Ian Happ CF,  Jason Heyward RF.

Bench:  Victor Caratini C/1B, David Bote IF, Daniel Descalso IF, Steven Souza Jr OF, Albert Almora OF.

Starting Rotation:  Jon Lester LHP, Yu Darvish RHP, Kyle Hendricks RHP, Jose Quintana LHP, Tyler Chatwood RHP.

Bullpen:  Craig Kimbrel RHP(Closer), Kyle Ryan LHP, Rowan Wick RHP, Alec Mills RHP, Jharel Cotton RHP.

The Starting 8 still looks formidable, but the rotation is getting very long in the tooth and there is not a lot to get excited about in the bullpen behind Kimbrel.

Grade B(but with a lot of age risk, especially on the pitching side).

Farm System:  Top Prospect Nico Hoerner is ready to step up and take over the starting 2B role.  The system falls off a cliff after him.

Grade D.

Scouting the Draft: Luke Little

Luke Little LHP, JC.  6'8", 220 lbs.

2019:  3-1, 2.04, 35.1 IP, 36 BB, 69 K, 2 Saves.
2020:  1-0, 9 IP, 2.22, 3 BB, 17 K, 3 Saves.

Luke Little is a huge LHP from San Jacinto JC in Texas.  FB has been clocked at 105 pitching during an indoor bullpen session. Has hit 102 in a game.  Usually sits 93-96 in games.  Had control issues his freshman JUCO season but was doing better in a very small sample before the shutdown this year.  Intriguing upside grab for round 5, but there may be enough teams thinking the same thing that someone may jump up and reach in round 4 or even round 3.  High risk/reward but the reward is very high.

State of the Rockies

The Rockies are reeling.  They are coming off an extremely disappointing 91 loss season in which their pitching staff had a near universal meltdown.  They then made no significant moves over the offseason while their GM ignored the public concerns of their best and highest paid player.  Yikes!

Ownership:  The principle owners are the Monfort brothers who made their stash by selling the family meatpacking business to ConAgra foods.  The Monforts have had a prickly relationship with the fanbase and don't seem to understand who they need to hire to run the baseball end of the business.  They allowed a disgruntled Nolan Arenado, who happens to be the best player on the team by far and by far the highest paid, to remain disgruntled through the offseason while retaining a GM who appears to not have a plan and made no effort to make the team better.  On top of all that, one of these Monfort boys declared that he expects the team to win 94 games in 2020(this was before the shutdown).

Grade D

Management:  Jeff Bridich has been GM for 5 seasons now and the organization appears to be regressing.  You would think a team that lost 91 games would be due for a shakeup, but Bridich made no significant moves over the offseason much to the disgust of Nolan Arenado who took his frustrations public.  He then completely failed to address Arenado's concerns and let the situation fester into spring training.

Bud Black returns for the umpteenth season as Manager.  Black seems to know his baseball but when your team underachieves to the extent of the Rockies, especially on the pitching side which is supposed to be Black's forte, you figure it might be time for a new approach.

Grade D.

Roster:

Starting Eight:  C Tony Wolters, 1B Daniel Murphy, 2B Ryan McMahon, 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Trevor Story LF Raimel Tapia, CF David Dahl, RF Charlie Blackmon.

Bench:  Dom Nunez C, Garrett Hampson IF, Brendan Rogers IF, Ian Desmond UT, Sam 
Hilliard OF.

Starting Rotation:  German Marquez RHP, Jon Gray RHP, Kyle Freeland LHP, Antonio Senzatela RHP, Jeff Hoffman RHP.

Bullpen:  Scott Oberg RHP(Closer?), Wade Davis RHP(Closer?), Jairo Diaz RHP, Carlos Estevez RHP, Bryan Shaw RHP, Jake McGee LHP.

There is definitely some talent here but the Rockies can't seem to find the right combination at 2B, 1B and at least 2 OF positions.  A large contract commitment to Ian Desmond who is not their best player at any position continues to be a barrier to good roster construction. The pitching, after Marquez and Gray, is a disaster with no help on the way.

Grade D+

Farm System:  The top prospect for how many years now is Brendan Rodgers who looks like a utility player unless he can beat out Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson for the starting 2B role.  A bit more seasoning in the minors might help but now that is probably not going to happen. The #2 and #3 prospects per MLB are Ryan Rolison LHP and Michael Toglia 1B.  I don't recognize any other names until I get to Sam Hilliard at #9.  The only other pitcher in the top 10 is someone named Ben Bowden at #10.  Not a very promising bunch.

Grade D.

Rockies fans find themselves without a lot of hope for the forseeable future here.

Scouting the Draft: More College Pitchers

This draft is exceptionally deep in college pitching of almost every conceivable size, shape and style.  There are way too many really good college pitchers for me to research and profile before the draft.  There are likely a lot more than will get drafted in a 5-round draft.  I am pretty sure there are a sizable number of college pitchers who go undrafted and will either stay in school or sign for $20 K who will have significant MLB careers.  Here are some who deserve more attention who would make nice picks anywhere from Round 2 on.

Jared Shuster LHP, College(Wake Forest).  6'3", 210 lbs.  

2018:  0-3, 7.41, 34 IP, 21 BB, 32 K.

2019:  4-4, 6.49, 68 IP, 37 BB, 94 K.

2020:  2-1, 3.76, 26.1 IP, 4 BB, 43 K.

2019 CCL:  4-0, 1.40, 33 IP, 5 BB, 36 K.

Shuster is a big lefty who was backing up a 2019 Cape Cod League breakout with a torrid start this spring when the season got shut down.  He is now getting some draft buzz thanks to reports of his fastball touching 97 with improved command of his secondary pitches. I could see him going late first or CB round and would make a fine pick for the Giants at #49 if he's still on the board.

*********************************************************************************

Nick Frasso RHP, College(Loyola Marymount).  6'5" 200 lbs.

2018:  4-4, 3.15, 60.0 IP, 17 BB, 74 K, 1 Save.

2019:  2-2, 2.22, 56.2 IP, 17 BB, 73 K, 10 Saves.

2002:  0-1, 4.15, 8.2 IP, 3 BB, 11 K.

Frasso was used as a swingman by Loyola Marymount make 15 Starts out of 37 Appearances in his college career while also serving as the principal Closer in 2019.  Tall with long arms and legs and a projectable body, so there is reason to believe he has more gas in the tank than the mid-90's heat he already has. Not a lot of mileage on his arm.  I could see him coming into play as early as round 2.

*********************************************************************************

Nick Garcia RHP, College(Chapman).  6'3", 195 lbs(215 lbs on CCL Roster).

2019:  9-0, 0.64, 56 IP, 14 BB, 82 K, 12 Saves.

2020:  4-1, 2.00, 27 IP, 7 BB, 36 K.

2019 CCL:  1-3, 3.17, 17 IP, 11 BB, 20 K, 1 Save.

Led Chapman to the DIII College WS title as their Closer in 2019.  Continued to shine as a SP in 2020 with reports of his FB hitting 98 MPH.  Concerns about strength of competition eased by strong performance in the CCL.  Strong frame that appears to have added muscle over his college career.

*********************************************************************************

Seth Lonsway LHP, College(Ohio State).  6'3", 200 lbs. 

2019:  8-4, 3.70, 92.1 IP, 59 BB, 126 K.

2020:  1-2, 3.00, 18 IP, 18 BB, 42 K.

Ohio prep player of the year in 2017.  Missed out on his freshman season due to a transcript error.  Serious strikeout stuff with a FB up to 94 MPH and a curveball that has been comped to Barry Zito's. Got off to a sizzling start in 2020 but the old control problems surfaced in what would be his final start with 8 BB's in 2 IP which caused his stock to drop.  He reportedly left Ohio State after the shutdown, so he's all in for the draft which probably bought him a lowball signing offer.

*********************************************************************************

Christian Roa RHP, College(Texas A&M).  6'4", 220 lbs.

2019:  2-1, 2.66, 23.2 IP, 5 BB, 24 K, 1 Save.

2020:  3-1, 5.85, 20 IP, 9 BB, 35 K.

Big bodied RHP who was lights out in his first two starts of 2020 including a 12 K performance against Miami on opening weekend.  FB sits 92-94 and touched 96 early but his stuff lost steam in his last two starts and he got roughed up which may have hurt his stock.

*********************************************************************************

Nick Swiney LHP, College(North Carolina St).  6'3", 190 lbs.

2018:  4-0, 3.52, 30.2 IP, 18 BB, 37 K.

2019:  7-1, 4.61, 56.2 IP, 31 BB, 95 K.

2020:  4-0, 1.29, 28 IP, 6 BB, 42 K.

Middle/multi- inning reliever his first two years of college.  Lights out as a SP in 2020.  FB 91-95 as a reliever, dropped to 89-93 as a SP but wipeout slider is his best pitch, one of the best in all of college baseball.

*********************************************************************************

Ian Bedell RHP, College(Missouri).  6'2', 200 lbs.

2018:  1-1, 6.17, 11.2 IP, 6 BB, 13 K, 1 Save.

2019:  3-1, 1.56, 40.1 IP, 12 BB, 36 K, 5 Save.

2020:  2-2, 3.70, 24.1 IP, 4 BB, 35 K.

2019 CCL:  4-0, 0.58, 30.2 IP, 3 BB, 36 K.

CCL Pitcher of the Year in 2019.  Lights out to start 2020.  Low 90's FB reportedly has crazy movement per scouting reports.  He throws both a 4 and 2-seam version.  Secondary pitches are a fall-off-the-table changeup and spike curveball.  Getting some late cycle buzz for the draft.

*********************************************************************************

Hugh Fisher LHP, College(Vanderbilt).  6'5", 195 lbs.  

2018:  2-0, 1.93, 9.1 IP, 6 BB, 8 K's.

2019:  2-0, 4.41, 34.2 IP, 21 BB, 46 K.

Projectable lefty who pitched exclusively out of the bullpen his first two years at Vandy.  Anticipated a big junior season but suffered an ACL tear and underwent TJ surgery in the fall of 2019.  Has enough upside that teams may still take a chance on him on draft day.

State of the Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks should be near the bottom of a brutal rebuild, but someone forgot to give that memo to GM Mike Hazen.  He has deftly transformed the roster from top-heavy superstar-based to a more evenly balanced with suprisingly strong results.

Ownership:  It's not a good look that 3 minority owners are suing principle owner Ken Kendrick or that the D'Backs are already looking for a new stadium.  On the other hand, Kendrick has approved reasonable free agent deals and trades which reallocated the money saved from unloading Zack Grienke and Paul Goldschmidt.

Grade C+.

Management:  What can I say?  Mike Hazen has defied expectations in the wake of being saddled with a crippling contract for Grienke and being forced to trade franchise cornerstone, Goldschmidt.  With a long series of trades and lesser free agent signings he created a balanced roster with a decent, if young farm system and bypassed the classic "teardown" that generally starts a rebuild these days.

Manager: Torey Lovullo has been in place since 2017 and trails Bob Brenly by .001 for top winning percentage of all D'Backs managers and he's done it with a team that was rebuilding.

Grade A.

Current Roster:

Starting Eight: Carson Kelly C, Jake Lamb/Christian Walker 1B, Ketel Marte 2B, Eduardo Escobar 3B, Nick Ahmed SS, David Peralta LF, Starling Marte CF, Kole Calhoun RF.

Bench:  Stephen Vogt C, Ildemaro Leyba IF, Ildemaro Vargas IF, Tim Locastro OF.

Starting Rotation:  Madison Bumgarner LHP, Robby Ray LHP, Mike Leake RHP, Luke Weaver RHP, Zac Gallen LHP.

Key Relievers:  Archie Bradley RHP(Closer), Andrew Chafin LHP, Yoan Lopez RHP, Alex Young LHP.

Madison Bumgarner will be challenged by a much less pitcher-friendly home environment, but he's also likely to get better run support.  The rest of this roster does not have any obvious lead dogs but also does not have obvious laggards.  The bullpen could use more depth.

Grade B.

Farm System:  The farm system is young with 5 of the top 6 prospects age 20 or younger.  It's deep enough that Seth Beer, a very good hitting prospect is ranked #12 by MLB Pipeline.  Speaking of Beer, his value will go way up with a universal DH.

Grade C+.

Scouting the Draft: Possible Compensation Round Picks

The Giants have a golden opportunity to turn this draft into an epic haul of talent with their B2B Compensation Round picks at #68 and #69.  Here are some names ranked or mocked at those two slots:

Fangraphs:

#68. Kevin Parada C, HS.  Not super enthusiastic about this name.  There are others I am higher on listed later.

#69.  Hudson Haskin CF, College(Tulane).  Probably should do a profile on him.  Tall, athletic and toolsy.  Has hit very well in college.  Power has lagged but has power potential.  Giants could do worse with the pick.

MLB Pipeline:

#68.  Dylan Crews C/OF, HS.  Now we're talking!  Some rankings have him in the first round and has been compared to Mike Trout, although that is grossly unfair to the kid.  Stock has dropped to the point he may be undervalued now.  If he drops this far, could be the steal of the draft.

#69.  Ryan Hagenow RHP, HS.  If the Giants were to snag Crews and Hagenow with these two picks and get them signed, I would be ecstatic.  Hagenow is a beast now and has all kinds of room to fill out.  Think a younger, bigger version of Brady Singer.

Draftsite:

#68.  Jackson Wolf LHP, College(West Virginia).  Interesting, late blooming college LHP who looks like he has some upside.  Tall and gangly but the awkwardness makes his stuff play up.  Might be a reach at #68 and available later in the draft.

#69.  Kevin Abel RHP, College(Oregon).  Decent college pitcher but last pitched as a freshman in 2018 due to TJ surgery.  I think the Giants can do better here.

Prospects Live:

#69.  Mario Zabala CF, HS.  Toolsy HS CF from Puerto Rico. Swing is raw but has tools to take it to the next level with strong coaching.

#69.  Yohandy Morales 3B, HS.  Power hitting corner IF.  Could turn into something special if he can stick at 3B.

Others to consider here:

Enrique Bradfield OF, HS.  Maybe fastest player in the draft with good plate discipline.  Looks a bit like Dee Gordon in videos. This demographic has not translated well to the pros in recent drafts.

Markevian Hence RHP, HS.  Small kid with a rubber arm and a big fastball.  I'd draft him for the name alone.

Coby Mayo 3B, HS.  Another power hitting corner IF.  Athletic enough to move to OF.

TJ McCants SS, HS.  Very similar looking player to Grant McCray who the Giants drafted in round 3 last year.

Blaze Jordan 1B/DH, HS.  OK, here's a name.  As a universal DH gets closer to reality, I could see FZ wanting The Home Run Derby Kid AKA Country Breakfast Jr.  In fact, there's no guarantee Jordan makes it to the Giants second pick at #49 overall.  If he does, I would not be shocked to see the Giants snag him there.  Light tower power and a DH would give him two ways to be in the lineup every day.

I'd love to see the Giants swing for the fences with these picks since they are extra picks and the farm system is already strong.  Playing with house money.

State of the Padres

The Padres have been through some tough times but may be entering a window where they can seriously compete for a championship.

Ownership:  I don't know much about the Padres ownership but they have shown a willingness to spend money on premium players and have brought a sense of stability to the organization after a near meltdown a few years ago.  They have been patient with AJ Preller, perhaps to a fault although Preller has done a lot of good things for the organization.

Grade B.

Management:  The aforementioned AJ Preller has made some head-scratching moves and has a couple of bad contracts to show for it.  On the other hand, the farm system is the envy of baseball.  If he plays his cards right, the Padres should be a force to be reckoned with over the next decade.

Sorry, I don't even know who their manager is.  OK, looked it up.  It's Jayce Tingler.  Don't know anything about him. New hire.

Grade C.

Current Roster:  Some of the position logjams have cleared a bit after some trades, but did those trades make the team stronger?  A lot will depend on Manny Machado playing within shouting distance of expectations and Fernando Tatis growing into the superstar he looks like he can become.  The starting pitching could be above average but a lot has to go right.  The bullpen is a strength.

Grade C+

Farm System:  Mackenzie Gore might be the best pitching prospect in the minors and Luis Patino looks like he could be a future ace too.  They should put a charge in the weakest part of the roster, the rotation, over the next 2-3 seasons.  CJ Abrams SS, Luis Campusano C and Taylor Trammell OF, round out an extremely strong top 5.  The depth after that is also strong.  The Padres issue has always been getting their premium prospects established in the majors.

Grade A-

Scouting the Draft: Franco Aleman

Franco Aleman RHP, JC.  6'6', 230 lbs.

2019 FIU:  3-5, 3.97, 65.2 IP, 20 BB, 53 K.
2019 CCL:  2-0, 1.16, 31 IP, 2 BB, 25 K.
2020 JC:  3-1, 3.26, 38.2 IP, 6 BB, 51 K.

Gotta thank Draftsite for alerting me to Aleman as they have him mocked to the Giants in Round 2 at #49 overall.  He's not listed in Fangraphs top 200+ or MLB's top 200, but he's a legit prospect who I would not be shocked to see off the board by #49.  If he's there, I might like him more than any other name I've seen ranked in that vicinity.  Tall RHP with long limbs and high hips who has filled out his frame nicely.  If you believe scouting reports, his velocity has also increased from the low 90's in HS now up to 96 MPH.  Looking at his frame and delivery, I've got to think there's more velocity in there and wouldn't be surprised if the Giants development team has been consulted on what they think he could turn into.  I would be pleased to see his name opposite the Giants at #49 or at any point later in the draft.

State of the Dodgers

We'll start our review of the state of other organizations with the NL West and the current top dogs of the division, the bad guys!  The hated ones!  The Dodgers.  We'll break it down into the same components we used for the Giants:  Ownership, Management, Current Roster and Farm System.  Here we go!

Ownership:  Hard to pick any bones with this outfit.  The Dodgers ownership group has everything you need at the top of an organization:  Deep pockets(Guggenheim, etc), baseball savvy(Stan Kasten), and PR(Magic Johnson).  Ownership seems to have the right balance between involvement and left the baseball people make decisions.  They have a mega TV contract.  Dodger Stadium is getting long in the tooth, but is still owned by the team and long since paid for.  The land around it is considered sacred but is a potential gold mine, much like the area around Oracle Park, which can be tapped into at any time.

Grade A.

Management:  The Dodgers have layers upon layers of management so it's a bit hard to tell who is really calling the shots, but Andrew Friedman is the name at the top and his credentials of applying sabermetrics to roster building and organizational quality are impeccable.  I am also not sure how much influence he has on the draft, but his draft history going back to his time with the Rays is mixed at best.  A lot of the Dodgers current success is based on players acquired before he took over but he deserves credit for getting the most out of those players and adding to them.

Dave Roberts is a solid clubhouse leader but his game decisions are are not Bochyesque.

Grade B

Current Roster:  The positional roster is likely the strongest in baseball and by a significant margin, especially after acquiring Mookie Betts.  The biggest challenge here is finding enough playing time to make everyone happy which may explain the curious trade that didn't happen where it seemed like they were going to give away Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling to the Angels.  If there are cracks in the armor, they are found on the pitching side where Clayton Kershaw may be starting on the downside of his career and David Price seems well into it.  You have to wonder about a SP depth chart with Alex Wood in it, but plenty of replacements seem to be ready in Stripling, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The Bullpen seems to be the shakiest part of the roster with Kenley Jansen also possibly starting the downward slide and the rest of the pen seems average at best.

The Dodgers have a ton of players into their arbitration years and only have Mookie Betts for one season before he hits free agency so they will have to keep spending money or keep the farm system pipeline flowing.

Grade A-

Farm System:  Gavin Lux sits at the top of their list and he looks like a MLB ready star in the making.  Beyond that, I am just not that impressed with the depth in the system.  I mean, Dustin May had a solid MLB debut but the #2 prospect in the system?  Likewise, Josiah Gray is an interesting pitching prospect, but #3 in the system per MLB Pipeline?  The Dodgers have a solid record of developing MLB players out of lower ranked prospects but I'm just not shaking in my shoes over the Dodgers current Top 30.

Grade C+(falling?).

Scouting the Draft: Possible Round Two Targets

If predicting the exact player the Giants might pick in first round, #13 overall, is difficult, by the time you get to round two, it's like finding a needle in a haystack and gets more difficult after that.  The best you can do is look at players ranked in that range just to get an idea of what type of player might be available.  Since most rankings and mock drafts stop after one round, the sources for names of players gets much more limited.  Here are some names and comments from Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline starting with the players they rank at #49 overall which is where the Giants pick in the second round.

Fangraphs:  Carson Tucker SS, HS.  I haven not profiled Carson Tucker yet.  He is the brother of Pirates prospect and former first round draft pick, Cole Tucker from 2013.  Carson's main selling point is he looks like he can stick at SS, but while he has 5 tools, I am not seeing any that stand out.  At 6'1", 175 lbs projectability is limited.  Underslot deals are rumored to be major thing for this draft just so teams can save money in a tough economic environment.  I could see him moving into the first round for that reason alone as his brother was widely seen as a signability pick at the time.  I hope the Giants don't blow this opportunity to take their farm system to an elite level and are more aggressive about taking the best player available.

MLB:  Burl Carraway LHP, College(Dallas Baptist).  I wrote him up on February 26.  You can find it in the Archives linked to the left.  College reliever with a nice FB/CB combo thrown from a high release point.  Small with a high effort delivery.  Dream comp is Billy Wagner but also conjures memories of Tyler Jay.  High floor/low ceiling prospect who should move fast as a reliever, but hey!  Lefty relievers are incredibly valuable these days so not a terrible use of a 2'nd round draft pick.

There are other players listed by Fangraphs and MLB in the general vicinity of #49 who I might be more excited about than either Carson Tucker or Burl Carraway.  For one thing, with all the talk of underslot bonus offers and non-signings, some higher end talent, especially from the HS ranks could fall out of the first round to a team willing to play closer to slot(let's all hope the Giants are one of those teams).  For another, this is just a deep draft and teams drafting in rounds 2 and 3 will have a choices of high floor college picks and high-ceiling HS and college players.  Let's break it down:

Austin Wells C/1B, College(Arizona St).  #44 Fangraphs, #27 MLB.  Solid college bat, but stock is dropping due to perceived inability to stay behind the plate.  Giants might like the bat enough to not care or they may think they can develop his catching skills.

Kyle Nicolas RHP, College(Ball St).  #45 Fangraphs, #60 MLB.  Caught some helium before the shutdown with a strong pitcher's frame and mid-upper 90's heat.  Gets tremendous leverage on the ball at the point of release.  A bit raw for a college pitcher but with a high ceiling.

Dax Fulton LHP, HS.  #51 Fangraphs, #43 MLB.  Tremendous size and velocity for a lefty.  Scouts haven't seen him for awhile but may interest a team that isn't afraid of post-TJ pitchers.  Extremely high ceiling.

Drew Bowser 3B, HS.  #53 Fangraphs, #64 MLB.  Power hitting corner IF out of Harvard-Westlake in CA.  Committed to Stanford.

Yohandy Morales 3B, HS.  #54 Fangraphs, #132 MLB.  Another power hitting corner IF.  Probably more signable than Bowser.

Justin Lange RHP, HS.  #55 Fangraphs, #57 MLB.  Projectable frame with present velocity. Stock seems to be rising.

Robby Ashford OF, HS.  #60 Fangraphs, #161 MLB.  IMO, the top athlete in the draft.  Major college football recruit to play QB. Decommitted from Mississippi St.  Currently committed to Oregon.  Has hinted he might choose pro baseball with the right bonus.  Would require significant development but the ceiling is sky high.

JT Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).  #26 Fangraphs(with down arrow), #44 MLB.  Draft eligible sophomore who underwent TJ just before the shutdown.  Could be a nice value pick if he falls into round 2.

Blogger's Note

I'll be away for a couple of days.  Next post Saturday evening or Sunday.

Thanks for reading and commenting, everybody!

DrB

State of the Giants: Farm System

I am happy to report the state of the Giants farm system is strong.  The last few drafts while Bobby Evans was GM were solid and he upped the Giants international game considerably.  To his credit, Farhan Zaidi(FZ) has only added to the strong and improving system he inherited.  I am not going to do an exhaustive review as we did that in the offseason.  I'll just say it is as strong as at anytime I can remember as a long time Giants fan with an interest in the farm system going back to the days when The Sporting News used to publish minor league stats. I would rate it at least as strong as when Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner were both in the system in the late 2000's.

The top tier of Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, Marco Luciano and Hunter Bishop are competitive with other top tiers.  The depth is evidenced by Logan Webb and Mauricio Dubon, both pretty good MLB-ready prospects ranking #11 and #12 by Fangraphs(MLB ranks them higher).  Will Wilson, a #15 overall draft pick by the Angels in 2019 is ranked #10 by Fangraphs and #7 by MLB.  If there is a weakness in the system it is with pitching, but even there, Webb, Sean Hjelle and Seth Corry have good chances to be future MLB SP's.

Barring a disastrous 2020 draft, the system should be considerably stronger in about a month as the Giants have 7 picks in the 5 round draft with an unusually deep draft pool.

Potential 2020 Contributors:  Logan Webb, Mauricio Dubon, Jaylin Davis, Tyler Rogers, Joey Bart.

Best 5 Tools:  Marco Luciano.

Best Power:  Joey Bart.

Highest Ceiling:  Joey Bart, Marco Luciano.

Top Pitcher:  Logan Webb, Sean Hjelle, Seth Corry.

Sleeper(not listed in MLB top 30 or Fangraphs top 50):  Caleb Kilian RHP.

Grade:  B+ and rising.

State of the Giants: Current Roster

For the purposes of this discussion we will assume 26 man rosters with no DH as would have been the case had the season not been postponed recognizing that rosters for a shortened season may be different including a universal DH.

Likely Starting 8:

C.     Buster Posey
1B.   Brandon Belt
2B.   Wilmer Flores
3B.   Evan Longoria
SS.   Brandon Crawford
LF.   Alex Dickerson/Hunter Pence
CF.   Mauricio Dubon
RF.   Mike Yastrzemski

Bench:  Rob Brantly C, Donovan Solano IF, Pablo Sandoval IF, Austin Slater OF

Starting Rotation:  Johhny Cueto RHP, Jeff Samardzija RHP, Kevin Gausman RHP, Drew Smyly LHP, Logan Webb RHP.

Bullpen:  Tony Watson(LHP), Trevor Gott(RHP), Tyler Rogers(RHP), Jarlin Garcia(LHP), Dany Jimenez(RHP), Jandel Gustave(RHP), Andrew Suarez(LHP), Tyler Anderson(LHP).

60 Day IL:  Tyler Beede(RHP), Aramis Garcia(C).

Several listed players are "on the bubble" and could be supplanted by someone on the extended 40-man roster or a non-roster invitee.

Summary:  Giants fans have to hope this is what rock bottom looks like.  The "core" is a ghost ship running out the string.  There are maybe three potential future building blocks:  Dubon, YtY and Logan Webb.  The rest are just passing through in the foamy waters of The Churn.  It appears a big part of FZ's strategy was to acquire players he could flip for prospects at the trade deadline.  His track record on those types of deals is quite good so far.  Possible expanded rosters and universal DH probably won't turn this sow's ear into a silk purse, but could work in the Giants longterm favor by buying time to evaluate more players caught up in The Churn.  Could the Giants have a surprisingly good season?  Yes, but it would take several major bounce backs and breakouts to pull it off.

Grade D.

State of the Giants: Management

I could make half of this post about how I think Bobby Evans was actually a pretty good GM and how he left the organization in a lot better shape than he is generally given credit for but we've been over that many times.  If I haven't convinced you yet, I'm probably not going to now.  Instead, I will focus on current Giants management and what that may mean for the team going forward.

Farhan Zaidi(FZ) is only separated by one degree from the godfather of applied sabermetrics, Billy Beane.  He has experienced the necessity of using data to succeed in a ridiculously underfunded environment. He has also seen what can be done with data when it is backed up by a virtually unlimited budget in Dodgerville.  While he was GM for the Dodgers, FZ and Gabe Kapler opened a new frontier by applying data to player development starting with the lowest levels of the farm system all the way up to the major league team.  This may be just my imagination running wild, but I have the feeling FZ and Kap weren't able to fully realize their vision for player development in LA and have been dying to reunite in a situation where nobody has veto power over them.  In what may be the most overlooked aspect of the new regime, FZ has installed young, enthusiastic, data driven educators throughout the system addressing every aspect of the game and how they believe it should be played.  If they are right, we should start to see tangible results as early as this season, if and when it finally gets played.  This may be the most underrated and important piece of what FZ brings to the organization.

As for the rest of his role as President of Baseball Operations or whatever his title is, the jury is still out.  PBO's/GM's can improve rosters through basically 3 avenues:  1.  Scouting/Draft/Farm System.  2.  Trades.  3.  Free Agent signings.  FZ has mostly eschewed big name/big budget free agents in favor of "churning" through large numbers of minor league deals and waiver claims, although he apparently made a serious bid to sign Bryce Harper. As for scouting and the draft, most of the top prospects in the Giants much improved farm system were acquired when Bobby Evans was still the GM both through the draft and international signings.  I will give FZ credit for adding to it in creative ways.  Trades are also a mixed bag but 3 stand out as clear wins for the Giants:  1.  Flipping 1 year signing Drew Pomeranz for Mauricio Dubon at the trade deadline.  2.  Unloading Mark Melancon's contract and getting a pretty good pitching prospect in return.  3. Essentially acquiring a second first round draft pick for the modest cost of Zack Cozart's $12 M contract.

I have a modest bone to pick with FZ in that his roster churning does not allow a large enough sample size to adequately evaluate a player and it also tends to create logjams without clearly improving the roster.  Too many times he's claimed or signed under-the-radar players who you can see the upside too only to bury them in an avalanche of additional signings and they never get a chance to show whether they can break through or not.  I mean, just as I am getting my heart set on seeing if Jaylin Davis can live up to his AAA stats or a full season of PA's from Mauricio Dubon, he signs the likes of Billy Hamilton and Yolmer Sanchez who would appear to be set to take playing time away from the younger, more promising players. And what is the point of bringing back Pablo Sandoval for one more season after signing Wilmer Flores to a 2 year contract?  Is the 2020 roster significantly better than Bobby Evans last roster?  If the answer is no and the reason is the rebuild, why all the contracts to washed up vets like Hunter Pence, BHam, Pabs and Yolmer Sanchez? Even Yaz the Younger(YtY), one of the few success stories of The Churn, was within 1 day of being sent packing with the rest and had his breakout game just in the nick of time.  So yeah, I'm not a fan of The Churn.  I think a more targeted approach would work just as well or better.

Gabe Kapler probably deserves his own post.  He comes in as Giants Manager with considerable baggage all of which has been hashed and rehashed.  So far, he's mostly said the right things, is refreshingly enthusiastic and clearly in lockstep with FZ regarding use of data in decisionmaking.  I see Kap as being a bit like drafting a HS pitcher who throws 100 MPH.  The ceiling is the HOF, but the bust potential is also huge.  He deserves the chance to see if he can breakout into an elite manager.

Grade C+ (with lots of upside)

State of the Giants: Ownership

With live baseball action still at least a month away and our Hot Stove League reviews completed, we'll start another series in response to a reader suggestion of looking at where the Giants are in their rebuild.  We'll start with an extended series on the Giants and then do shorter ones on NL West rivals and keep going until a season starts.

STATE OF THE GIANTS

The Giants are in a transition phase where their homegrown core of players who came on the scene winning championships had a collective regression in performance we typically associate with age.  The Giants invested a lot of money in those players and added expensive veteran talent from the outside.  While the Giants appear to remain open to investing in elite free agent talent, Bryce Harper explained what they are up against when he recently stated that he noticed the decline in the performance of the core players and it factored into his decision to sign with the Phillies instead.  So the Giants don't have much choice but to be patient and let a rapidly improving farm system kick in about the time those big contracts are completed.

Ownership:  The Giants ownership group remains one of the richest in the league.  They have an ownership stake in their broadcast partners.  They have full ownership of the stadium which is now paid off.  They own a lot of the surrounding property and are in the process of developing it into an even more lucrative revenue stream.  There has been a subtle, but possibly significant shift in control of the team.  Up to now, the more wealthy members of the ownership group were content to let minority owners with more interest in the baseball side run things.  Larry Baer is still around, but appears to have a reduced role after serving a suspension for a public scuffle with his wife which doubled as a public relations disaster.  Over the past year, we've seen family members of the "deep pockets" step into more active roles.  Speaking of public relations disasters, it didn't help to find out the deepest pocket, Charles Johnson, was contributing to right wing PAC's which ran counter to the Giants carefully cultivated image of supporting one of the more liberal communities in the country.  It remains to be seen if the increased involvement of the deep pockets makes any practical difference in how the team is run.  I suspect the decision to change management had more to do with them waking up one day and realizing the Dodgers had a lower payroll than with realizing the core was aging fast or the farm system had hit a dry patch.

Grade:  B.  Public relations disasters aside, the fundamentals still look good.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: What Are Rankings and Mock Drafts Saying?

What are people who know more about scouting and drafting than I saying about who the Giants might pick with the #13 overall pick on June 10?  Let's take a peek.

Fangraphs:  Max Meyer RHP, College(Minnesota).  This is a ranking.  Fangraphs has not published a mock draft yet.  Meyer would be almost a perfect pick.  MLB ranked FB and Slider as best in draft.  As close to an off the shelf MLB SP as you are going to find.  Only drawback is size at barely 6'0".  That creates some effort in the delivery and a perceived reliever risk.  I think those concerns are small.  Bigger barrier to the pick from what I've been reading is he is rising on a lot of draft boards and will likely be picked top 10.

MLB:  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.  Top HS power hitting prospect.  Not particularly big or projectable body but muscular arms and extremely strong wrists produce elite exit velocity.  Has been comped to Cody Bellinger.  Borderline speed for CF but enough arm to play RF.  I believe he's the Giants pick if he's still on the board at #13.

MLB Podcast:  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.  Most advanced HS pitcher in the draft.  High 90's FB with advanced changeup.  Breaking ball needs work but that is a small hurdle.  Body is less projectable than some others, but who needs projection when you already throw high 90's?  Would be a terrific pick if Meyer and Hendrick are off the board.

Sox Machine:  Nick Bitsko RHP, HS.  Nothing wrong with this pick.  Bitsko is much more raw than Kelley but has upside to dream on.  I would rank the top HS pitchers 1. Kelley.  2.  Mick Abel.  3.  Nick Bitsko.  I would only take Bitsko if all of Meyer, Hendrick, Kelley, Zac Veen, and Abel were off the board, which is probably not too likely, and if it did happen, it might mean a top tier college hitter fell into their laps.

Fansided:  Jared Kelley.

Bleacher Report:  Jared Kelley.

CBS Sports:  Robert Hassell OF, HS.  Swing is much more easthetically pleasing than Hendrick's but does not produce the same power.  Could develop power with maturity and some minor tweaking of the swing.  Could even make a case for taking him over Hendrick, but I think Hendrick is more what FZ and Kap are looking for.

Perfect Game:  Tyler Soderstrom C, HS.  Switch-hitting HS catcher who has enough bat and is athletic enough to play other positions.  Dad is former Giants first round pick.  Under the radar draft candidate for the Giants but seems to be taking on late helium and may not last until #13.  Of course would mean another good prospect drops.

Baseball Prospect Journal:  Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).  Has the tools to be an ace but only moved into a SP role this year after some injury issues.  Seems risky for #13 and probably only goes that high if the Giants are dead set on drafting a college player and I doubt they are that inflexible.

Athletic:  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).  I actually like Wilcox frame better than Emerson Hancock, so the ceiling/upside is there.  Negative is lack of command and some straightness in the FB.  Pitched well this spring before the shutdown.  I could see the Giants being enamored by his ceiling and think they can fix him. Again, it would keep them out of the dreaded HS pitcher demographic.

Prospect 365:  Austin Hendrick.

Prospect 365:  Garrett Crochet LHP, College(Clemson).  Elite size and stuff.  Mysterious injury limited him to 1 start this spring.  I would not want to risk it at #13.

My MLB Draft:  Jared Kelley.

Draft Site:  Casey Martin SS, College(Arkansas).  No thank you.  Multiple better choices will be available IMO.

Austin Hendrick and Jared Kelley are the two names most commonly linked to the Giants in mock drafts.  Either player would be a solid choice.  Both have very high ceilings but would also likely be fast movers in the system.  Kelley is likely to be MLB ready sooner than Hendrick, but there is always more risk with pitchers, especially out of HS.

Hot Stove League Review: Rays

We'll wrap up the Hot Stove League series with one of the most interesing teams in MLB.  The Rays have a penchant for making deals that leave analysts scratching their heads but which seem to pay off in the end.  There were more moves and more head scratching around the Hot Stove this winter.  Key Moves:

Free Agent Losses:  Avisail Garcia(OF), Travis d'Arnaud(C), Eric Sogard(IF), Guillermo Heredia(OF), Jesus Aguilar(1B), Matt Duffy(3B).

Free Agents Signed:  Yoshitomo Tsutsugo(3B/OF).

Trades:  Acquired Hunter Renfroe(OF) and Xavier Edwards(IF) from the Padres for Tommy Pham(OF) and Jake Cronenworth(IF/RHP).  Acquired Jose Martinez(OF/1B), Randy Arozarena(OF), and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick from the Cardinals for Matthew Liberatore(LHP), Edgardo Rodriguez(C) and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick.  Acquired Manuel Margot(OF) and Logan Driscoll(C/OF) from the Padres for Emilio Pagan(RHP).  Acquired Cal Stevenson(OF) and Peyton Battenfield(RHP) from the Astros for Austin Pruitt(RHP).  Acquired cash and a PTBNL from the Reds for Jose DeLeon(RHP).  Acquired Brian O'Grady(1B/OF) from the Reds for cash and a PTBNL.  Acquired Curtis Mead(IF) from the Phillies for Cristopher Sanchez(LHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Kevan Smith(C), Aaron Loup(LHP), Chris Herrmann(C), Dylan Covey(RHP), Sean Gilmartin(LHP), Ryan LaMarre(OF), Brooks Pounders(RHP), Aaron Slegers(RHP), Deck McGuire(RHP), John Curtiss(RHP), Johnny Davis(OF), D. J. Snelton(LHP).

Summary:  Lots to unpack here.  The Rays have depth layered upon depth so it's not completely clear how all these moves help much.  I like the Renfroe trade as he has elite power and is younger/cheaper/controlled longer than Tommy Pham, plus they got an interesting prospect in Edwards.  I don't see the point of giving up a possible future ace in Liberatore for players they don't really need.  Pay attention the the names you don't recognize going forward.  The Rays have a long history of turning those players into value.

Grade:  B.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: New Rules and New Draft Board

It looks like the MLB draft will not be moved from June 10, but it will be shortened dramatically to just 5 rounds. What's crazy about this is both the MLBPA and MLB front offices wanted 10 rounds but couldn't agree on bonus rules for rounds 6-10 so the commissioner laid down the law and made it five rounds.  Take that!  Bonus pools will be significantly smaller, but slot numbers won't change.  This will reduce negotiating flexibility but I don't expect it to change signability for drafted players much, if at all.  The overall situation may well make them more likely to sign.  I mean, if you are a draft eligible sophomore and you get offered third round slot money, are you really going to turn that down when there is no assurance of a college season at all in 2021?  Same goes for a high school draftees.

The big losers in all of this are the players who were expecting to be drafted in later rounds.  Their maximum bonus is now set at $20, 000.  They have a choice.  Take it or face a very uncertain future in the amateur ranks. At least they may get more of a choice of which team to sign with.  Once again, the MLBPA throws future players under the bus to protect those already in the club.  Look for more amateur players to sign deals outside the U.S.

********************************************************************************

Time to put up a new draft board.  Giants draft at #13 and there seems to be a tier break somewhere around #18-20 so will stop there.

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).  Top 5-tool college player in the draft.  Power is not elite but makes up for it with other tools and ability to play premium positions.  A bit odd that he's projected to be a SS, but played mostly 3B for Vandy in 2019 and CF in 2020.

2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).  Top bat in the draft with elite power.  Negative is he is likely limited to 1B/DH.  Seems to move OK around the bag, but a very bad looking body.

3.  Nick Gonzalez 2B, College(New Mexico St).  College 2B is generally not a sought after demographic in the draft, but recent successes of Keston Hiura and Nick Madrigal post-draft have it made much less toxic.  Gonzalez is cut along those lines.  Has played college ball in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, but also dominated the Cape Cod League.

4.  Max Meyer RHP, College(Minnesota).  On the small side but brings big time stuff.  One scouting site rated both his FB and slider as tops in college.  If you are looking for an off-the-shelf pitcher who could step in and play at the MLB level immediately, Meyer is the guy you are looking for.

5.  Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M).  Most boards currently have him as the top college pitcher in the draft and he has great stuff.  Delivery is a bit funky and inconsistent.  Some perceived injury and bullpen risk.

6.  Garrett Mitchell OF, College(UCLA).  Elite tools.  Raw power has yet to play in games.  Some teams may perceive Type 1 Diabetes as a risk.  Review of medicals will be critical.

7.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).  Top pitching projection in the draft.  Ideal size and frame.  Top shelf current stuff with oodles of room to grow.  There is something about his arm action that screams injury risk to me.  Results on field have not matched possibly unrealistic expectations.

8.  Heston Kjerstad OF, College(Arkansas).  If you are impressed by on-field performance, Kjerstad is your guy.  Solid combination of contact, discipline and power.  Came out raking in 2020 before the shutdown. Profiles as a corner bat.

9. Austin Hendrick OF, HS.  Has moved up to top HS prospect in the draft on my board despite issues with his setup and swing.  Bat speed is elite.  Wrists appear incredibly strong and quick on video.  Swing draws comparisons to Cody Bellinger.  Plenty of speed and arm to play RF.  Speed is borderline for CF.  I think this is the guy the Giants are hoping for.

10.  Zac Veen OF, HS.  Tall and angular.  Body comp is Christian Yelich.  Like the younger Yelich, power is more gap than HR but the projection is off the charts.  Close call for top HS hitter between Veen and Hendrick, IMO.

11.  Patrick Bailey C, College(North Carolina St).  Solid defensive catcher with power from both sides of the plate.  Might be a better hitter than Kjerstad or Mitchell above and catchers who can hit lefty are crazy valuable.  I could see FZ being interested despite the presence of Joey Bart in the organization.

12.  Tyler Soderstrom C, HS.  Son of a former Giants first round draft pick.  Seems to be catching some helium as the draft approaches.  HS catcher is considered a high risk demographic, but Soderstrom's switch-hitting bat and athleticism project to other positions.  Again, I could see FZ being tempted if he is on the board at #13.

13.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.  This is a strong draft for HS hitters and pitchers.  With a projected run on college players in the top 10, the Giants should have a choice among multiple high ceiling HS players.  The frame is not as projectable as a Mick Abel or Nick Blitsko, but Kelley already has MLB strength with elite velocity and the most advanced stuff of any HS pitcher in the draft.  Given the relative weakness of pitching in the Giants farm system, this could work out if Kelley is the best player available at #13.

14.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.  Tall projectable frame.  Reminds me a lot of Michael Kopech.  The ceiling is to dream on, but I see a TJ in his future.

15.  Nick Bitsko RHP, HS.  Big strong frame. Hard thrower.  Reclassified for this draft but that only makes him age appropriate instead of old for the draft. Raw talent but very projectable.

16. Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).  Elite size and frame.  FB tends to be on the straight side and has had command issues.  The ceiling is dreamworthy, though.

17.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.  IMO, the most physical prospect in the draft.  Power potential is off the charts.  Fast enough to play CF and athletic enough to play SS, although size projects as a corner player.  Reminds me of Jo Adell who turned out to be one of he steals in his draft.

18. Dylan Crews C/OF, HS.  Body type, stance and swing remind of Mike Trout which is undoubtedly in unfair comp.  Stock dropped over the summer of 2019 when he struggled to make contact on the showcase circuit.

Hot Stove League Update: Orioles

The Orioles have a way to go in their rebuild.  Pitching and pitching depth have been a longterm weakness, partly due to the ballpark they play in.  They used the Hot Stove League to load up on innings eating vets and young arms.  They'll wait for a few more high draft picks to think about contending.  Key Moves:

Free Agent Losses:  Aaron Brooks(RHP), Gabriel Ynoa(RHP), Mark Trumbo(1B/OF/DH), Tayler Scott(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Jose Iglesias(SS), Kohl Stewart(RHP).

Trades:  Acquired Isaac Mattson(RHP), Zach Peek(RHP), Kyle Brnovich(RHP), Kyle Bradish(RHP) from the Angels for Dylan Bundy(RHP).  Acquired Easton Lucas(LHP) from the Marlins for Jonathan Villar(IF).

Waiver Claims:  Hector Velazquez(RHP- Red Sox), Andrew Velazquez(IF- Indians), Ramon Urias(IF- Cardinals), Travis Lakins(RHP- Cubs), Pat Valaika(IF- D'Backs), Richard Urena(IF- Blue Jays).

Minor League Free Agents:  Tommy Milone(LHP), Wade LeBlanc(LHP), Cesar Valdez(RHP), Bryan Holiday(C), Danny Barnes(RHP).

Summary:  Not a lot to get excited about here.  O's fans will have to wait and hope for a couple more good drafts for the team to make a push for contention.

Grade C-

BTW, if that is not bad enough, Trey Mancini, arguably the team's top player was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer and will miss the entire 2020 season undergoing treatment.  We wish him the best and keep our fingers crossed for a full recovery.  Just an FYI, colon cancer is on the upsurge in people under the age of 50 which most guidelines say is the age to start screening.  Look for that to be revised at some point in the future.

COVID 19 Update: Surrender

*This post will be more opinionated that previous posts on this subject.  My opinions are based on facts as I understand them and are not necessarily those of the leadership of my medical group or profession.

In a viral outbreak or pandemic for which no vaccine and no known effective treatment exists, public health measures can still alter the natural history of the pandemic.  There are 3 basic public health strategies from which to choose:  Containment, Mitigation and Herd Immunity(achieved through no intervention and allowing the pandemic to complete its natural course).

Containment is most effective early in the course of a pandemic when there are relatively few cases, but is difficult to implement quickly enough due to lack of time to ramp up resources.  Effective containment requires the early and rapid identification of cases, mandatory quarantining of cases, robust contact tracing with mandatory quarantining of contacts for a time determined by our knowledge of the natural history of the disease(how long is a person contagious?).  There are several countries who appear to have successfully contained COVID 19 including South Korea, New Zealand and Germany, although it remains to be seen if containment can be sustained over the full course of the worldwide pandemic.  There were early attempts at containment in the U.S.  An early outbreak in New Rochelle, NY was found to have started with one individual who then spread it to multiple citizens of the town.  New Rochelle was locked down and essentially quarantined as a community.  Unfortunately a much larger outbreak had already started in New York City and the rest is history.  In San Diego, one significant outbreak was traced to a small group of friends who were apparently infected while on a ski vacation in Colorado and brought it back home.  Another large outbreak was traced to a single infected individual who attended an electronic music event and transmitted it to multiple contacts.

In one large hospital in Northern California, contact tracing identified over 100 hospital workers who were exposed to a single infected patient.  All contacts were placed on a 14 day quarantine which caused significant staffing problems in that hospital.  As more and more cases came to hospitals, it quickly became impossible to quarantine contacts and still keep the hospitals open.  Testing was only available through the CDC via local health departments and took several days to turnaround.  Hospitals filled up with sick patients waiting for test results.  The caseloads quickly overwhelmed health department resources to carry out contact tracing.  Strategy quickly shifted to mitigation.

I think by now we all know what mitigation entails: Social distancing, personal protective equipment, closing schools, social events, entertainment events and some businesses.  There can be a spectrum of degrees of mitigation ranging from voluntarily avoiding large crowds and wearing masks in public to total lockdown.  The value of testing is less clear in mitigation.  It is still used in hospitals to try to segregate patients with COVID 19 from other patients.  It can be used to determine patients who are candidates for clinical trials of investigational medications.  Testing can also be done on random population samples, like a poll, to determine prevalence of active virus in the community.

There are several potential goals of mitigation.  Best case scenario is mitigation reduces the number of new cases to the point of enabling a return to a containment strategy.  A few countries who have applied draconian lockdowns have managed to get to this outcome.  Another goal is to "flatten the curve" which does not stop new cases from occurring, but keeps them at a low enough level that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.  There is evidence that case-fatality ratios approximately double when healthcare systems are overwhelmed.  Infections and deaths among healthcare workers also increase significantly when the system is overwhelmed.  Another potential positive outcome of mitigation is delaying infections until an effective vaccine or medication is available.

Mitigation does come at a severe economic cost with skyrocketing unemployment and general loss of economic activity.  Whether that economic cost is greater than would occur naturally in an uncontrolled pandemic is uncertain.  So far, every country and region except possibly Sweden has eventually been forced to institute mitigation efforts in response to crushing disease burden.

The U.S. has never had a coordinated national strategy for managing the COVID 19 pandemic.  Strategic decisions regarding the employment of containment vs mitigation vs doing nothing have been left to state and local governments.  The federal government has nominally supported mitigation but has not enforced it or even vigorously encouraged it.  We are now actually seeing widespread examples of federal and state government blocking local containment and mitigation efforts.

Last week, the President of the United States surrendered to the virus and abandoned mitigation.  Make no mistake.  This shift in strategy is not because the President thinks mitigation has been successful and we can now go back to containment.  Mitigation may continue to some extent at state and local levels, but the national strategy now is to let the pandemic follow it's natural course and get to herd immunity as quickly as possible.  You don't believe that?  Here's a direct quote from the President's interview with David Muir of ABC News:  "There'll be more death, that the virus will pass, with or without a vaccine....and I think we're doing very well on the vaccines but, with or without a vaccine, it's going to pass and we're going to get back to normal.  But it's been a rough process.  There is no question about it."

I will let readers decide whether they think this is the correct strategy.  It is my opinion that the economic impact of an uncontrolled pandemic and an overwhelmed healthcare system will be as great or greater than what we have experienced with mitigation, but it may well shorten the duration of the economic pain.  We need to be clear-eyed about where this will take us.  My own calculations, which I have outlined in previous posts, as well as calculations of multiple pandemic experts is we can expect a final death toll of somewhere between 0.5 to 3 million in the U.S.  I hope I am wrong and it is much less than that.