Saturday, January 25, 2020
Thoughts on Madison Bumgarner and the Giants Offseason(So Far)
Yesterday, we had several follow up comments regarding my post about the Giants signing Darren Ruf. LG, whose thoughtful comments I always appreciate, mentioned he isn't sure how I feel about the Giants failure to re-up Madison Bumgarner, losing him to a division rival. So let's circle back to this issue and see if we can come to terms with it and move on. First of all, I just want to say a big part of why I write this blog is to have fun. I don't do it for money, that's for sure! BTW, I think time is proving that money corrupts blogs just like everything else, but that's all I'm going to say about that! In the spirit of having fun, I will sometimes bust out my ironic, slightly off-kilter sense of humor. So, I might whack the bees nest with a stick or pull the tiger's tail once in awhile just to see what mayhem it might cause. I also try to write with some nuance and try very hard to not see things as either/or or black and white. I don't happen to think Bobby Evans was as bad as he's made out to be in some corners, and I think it remains to be seen if Farhan Zaidi is the all-knowing genius some seem to think. That doesn't mean everything Bobby Evans did was great or that Zaidi has not made some impressive moves since taking over as GM.
With that out of the way, what do I think of the Madison Bumgarner situation? For my initial reaction, I will call your attention to my post from Sunday, December 15, 2019 entitled Hot Stove Update: A Giants Legend Moves On. If you are interested enough, you can go look it up for yourself, but here are a couple of key excerpts: 1. "So yeah, it's a sad day. What makes it harder to swallow is the contract he ultimately signed seems to be well within the Giants budgetary constraints and within the performance levels he can reasonably be expected to produce the next 5 seasons......In short, re-signing Bummy.....would not halt or delay any 'rebuild' in any way shape or form. OK, maybe the extra draft pick turns into a Hall of Famer, but it's highly unlikely." 2. "On the other hand, I am not going to lead the 'fire Farhan' charge over this. Bummy has a ton of mileage on his arm and large longterm contracts haven't exactly worked out well for the Giants over the past decade, so I understand the argument for letting him go. I've made it myself!" And here's one more key thought: "Hopefully Farhan.....will re-allocate money that might have been used to sign Bummy to other good things."
Since I wrote that post, it's come out that the die may have been cast on Bumgarner leaving a long time ago, and it all makes perfect sense. Giants management was reportedly preparing an extension when the infamous dirt bike caper happened. It may have been interrupted again by the fractured hand the following spring. It seems like maybe the Giants top management, all the way up to ownership level, lost some trust in Bummy over the dirt bike thing. For his part, Bummy did not think pulling back on the extension was fair to him. In this regard, I have to say my sympathies are more with management, and we really can't blame Farhan for any of that. On top of all that, it also came out that the Bumgarners own a horse ranch outside of Scottsdale, AZ and Bum had a dream of being able to live there when his team played at home. Well then, there's not much Farhan Zaidi can do about that either!
So, where does that leave us and where do we go from here? Some folks seem to want to paint this as a choice between the future and the past, between rebuilding or reshuffling the deck and doubling down on a bad hand. I believe that is a false choice. The Giants have the resources to compete now and rebuild. They don't have to "tank" until 2022, when most of the "bad" contracts will be finished. There are more ways than one to accomplish these dual goals of competing now and building an organization for sustained competitiveness. They can continue to churn the roster at the margins and use the power of chance to uncover a breakout player or two while accelerating development of the farm system. That seems to be Farhan's major MO, so far although we must remember the Hot Stove is still burning out there. They can also sign free agents whose market is distressed for some reason to short term contracts that can be easily traded or jettisoned. Farhan seems to be active in the market for these too.
Lastly, a big longterm contract for a "franchise player" is not antithetical to a rebuild. These contracts are typically for 5-7 years. If Farhan can't have this team back in the playoffs within 5 years, then why is he the GM? So, if one of those players is available and you have the financial resources to sign them, by all means, make that part of the rebuild! Having said that, I recognize you have to be careful who you give those contracts to. A few years ago, a lot of folks thought the answer was to re-sign your own homegrown players. Well, how has that worked out for the Giants? The one guy in this year's market who I think deserved that "franchise" label and contract was Gerrit Cole. Unfortunately, I think he had his heart set on playing for the Yankees and the Yankees wanted him as much as he wanted them, so no chance for the Giants there. As for the other market options, I'll save that for another post I am ruminating on about dilemmas and conundrums in roster building. Stay tuned!
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So, the first comment I get here is an example of why I am reluctant to publish comments when I disagree with the premise of the comment and am not able to rebut within the comment sections. I do not accept the premise that this team is currently hopelessly out of contention. Yes, they appear to be as of this moment and with this roster, but what if you add an ace SP, a cleanup level bat in the OF and a reliable Closer? That team might not be likely to win the division, but it could contend for a playoff spot and we all know what can happen once you are in the postseason. Those pieces are, or were, available on the FA/trade market this cycle, or we might all be pleasantly surprised to find one or two from within the organization and/or Churn.
But yeah, a word of warning. I will not publish any more comments premised on the notion that the Giants should not try to compete because they are non-competitive. Just stop! If you fervently believe that, fine, but you can take those comments somewhere else because I don't have the time, patience or energy to keep on rebutting them after every post and I'm not going to let them hijack the blog.
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Adding good players to a bad team might get some extra wins, but when it takes more than double digit extra wins that is throwing good money after bad.
ReplyDeleteWhen the core is built, then add players to get over the top.
Other than to make the team a little more watchable, Cole was probably the best bet to stay good for 5 years, and perhaps Rendon would have a chance.
Have a strong base also makes attracting pieces easier — why would Cole or Rendon want to come to SF now?
Harvest the farm: if 5 or 6 next gen Posey, Belt, Crawford, and near imitations of Timmy, Cain, and Bum blossom, then start the printers.
Had 2016 worked, and it almost did, that would have been 7 years of plenty, making this 7 year of famine feel a little better.
Thanks for putting that in! I worked pretty hard but won't justify it further.
DeleteYou and I agree far more often than not, AND I'm with you that the Giants could make a WC in 2020 with just the right additions and the old core coming through — which could happen: Buster and one of the Brandons will rebound, Longo will be a 2+ WAR, and 2B is reasonably covered.
Cross figures on the rest.
The Giants could compete in 2020 with just the right additions while not loading down the future as Zito and Rowand did not block the team in the golden years.
ReplyDeleteA bust here and there won’t hurt a very good team that spends as much as the Giants are willing to.
Such is why they went after Harper last year and probably kicked the tires on Cole and perhaps Rendon, players for the long term to supplement the coming crop of draftees.
It seems evident that the farm is in good shape – five in MLB’s most recent top 100 Prospects – that’s a good indicator. There is a lot of promise in Dr B’s top 20, plus some sleepers.
Is it as good as the haul from 2007-2011: Buster Posey, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Brian Wilson, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and to a lesser extent Jonathan Sanchez, Nate Schierholtz, and Travis Ishikawa?
Then the Giants added just the right guys, like Pagan, Scutaro, Sanchez, Pence, Burrell, Ross, Huff, Uribe, Renteria, Cabrera, Blanco, Morse, Affelt, Casilla, Lopez, Mota, and others as needed, but they were needed.
The magnificent CORE came from the system abetted by some good acquisitions along with some not so good, but the core was the core, that came from the draft.
Hello DrB,
ReplyDeleteFirst, please know that I, on who reads your blog most every day and has commented a few times in the past, appreciate your dedication and passion for the Giants, as expressed in this blog. Many of us have similar passion for the Giants, but few have the inclination to build and maintain a home for it over these many years, as you have.
I too disagree with the notion that the Giants should not try to compete because they are non-competitive – I am not at all sure that the Giants can’t compete this year. Yes, I will miss a pitcher of Madison Bumgarner’s stature, but I believe both Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have stretches of exceptional starting pitching within them still. And both Tyler Beede and Logan Webb are more promising arms among starters that those I have seen signed/developed by the Giants (Ty Blach, Chris Stratton, Albert Suarzez, Andrew Suarzez, et al) in the last 5 years. And I believe they have some monster arms in the bullpen (I saw the Giants play the Red Sox last season in Fenway and was sitting next to the visiting bullpen: just looking up close at guys like Wandy Peralta and Enderson Franco – guys I never heard of - throw that hard in warm ups, my goodness!), I would not be surprised to see the Giants develop a very good bull pen this year. I also think the Giants have a few young bats that deserve an extended look at the MLB level – Mauricio Dubon, Jaylin Davis, and (possibly Joey Bart) that show promise. I would not be surprised to see the Giants surprise a few people with some success this year.
But mostly, I believe the Giants might be competitive sooner than expected is because the new decision makers (Farhan Zaidi, et al) seem to believe in the importance of seeing what they have in their younger players with room to grow, whilst building a roster of potential future stars (5 guys in the BA top 100, wow).
Yes, it seems that they had more guys like Gary Brown and Jarrett Parker than they did Bryan Reynolds, but Reynolds hit everywhere he played in the minors for the Giants, and I always wondered why the Giants never considered him for a look with the big club. The previous regime seemed to have an affinity toward older players who were declining (2009 when Buster Posey got a September call up and proceeded to be given 17 PA in 7 games, in apparent deference to Bengie Molina, or choosing Andrew McCutchen over Reynolds in 2018). As developments with Mark Melancon and Kevin Pillar have shown, the new Giants regime wants to build upon youth, not older/extablished players who may be good in the near terms, but not so much a few years from now.
In short, I believe that there is a chance that the moves the Giants are making (and declining to make) now may well make them good in the near term, sooner than many may expect.
Thanks again for your work on this blog. I will try to contribute more often.
-Kar120c