Scouting the 2020 Draft: Cayden Wallace

Cayden Wallace 3B, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 205 lbs.

Cayden Wallace doesn't look too impressive on paper.  He's an averagish sized HS corner IF with what the Fangraphs boys call "....solid above average tools.....across the board."  Then I looked up his PG profile and he got a little more interesting.  Arm:  93 FB Velo, 95 IF Velo.  Maybe that's average for a a pitcher, but for a position player, I would call that a solid plus.  Run:  6.68 60 yd dash.  OK not exactly blinding speed, but enough to play corner OF and even CF in a pinch.  Say!  If you put that arm in RF, you have a real weapon!  OK, Exit Velo:  103.  Hello!  According to the write up, he didn't just hit 103 once, he was in triple digits multiple times.  So, we're going to give power a solid plus too!  More PG:  "...has always hit and hit with power in games against quality pitching."

On video, his size and batting stance remind me a bit of Jeff Bagwell.  The other comp that comes to mind is the HS version of Alex Bregman.  I can see a team with a high pick really taking a liking to him, seeing an opportunity for an underslot deal.  If he drops to the second round or later, I would think he might go to school and try to get to the top of the draft like Bregman in 3 years.  I would not be dismayed if the Giants went for the underslot deal with him at #13.

Hot Stove Update: Nick Vincent 2.0

The Giants signed Nick Vincent to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.  You may recall Vincent from last season.  He is a soft tossing RHP and since last impressions often are what you remember, you may recall he pitched pretty awful before being released in late May.  The full story is more complicated.  From Opening Day through May 10, Vincent made 14 appearances and pitched 24 innning with a 2.25 ERA.  Those are valuable innings!  Unfortunately over his next 4 appearances he was torched for 13 ER in 6.2 IP and was released.  He hooked on with the Phillies late in the season pitching 14 innings in 14 appearances with a 1.93 ERA.  My theory is the multi-inning role in SF wore him out.  BTW, note that his manager in Philly was Gabe Kapler.

Digging into Fangraphs data, it looks like Vincent basically throws just 2 pitches, a fastball and a cut fastball.  Both pitches average a bit over 89 MPH.  Those two combine for 90% of his pitches while a curveball and change up comprise the other 10%.  Now, how he misses bats with that repertoire is beyond me, but he sports an excellent K/BB of 9.47/2/42.   He does generate above average spin rates, so may have some extra late movement which may be where he gets the swings and misses.

Looking over the relievers on the Giants current 40-man roster, you've got to think Vincent has a better than 50% chance of making the Opening Day active roster.  Maybe if he's used in shorter relief stints, he can pitch more like his first 14 appearances and his stint in Philly and less like the 4 disastrous outings that punched his ticket out of SF last year.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #38 Caleb Kilian

Caleb Kilian RHP.  DOB:  6/2/1997.  6'4", 180 lbs.

College:  8-3, 3.92, 96.1 IP, 20 BB, 89 K.
Rookie(AZL):  0-0, 0.00, 12 IP, 2 BB, 11 K.
Short Season:  0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 0 BB, 6 K.

Caleb Kilian was the first pitcher selected by the Giants in the 2019 draft in the 8'th round out of Texas Tech.  Long but solid frame with a ton of projection despite his relatively advanced age for new draftee.  FB reportedly gets up to 95 with a solid slider to back it up.  The Giants took it very slow with him after the draft. He might take the same route through Augusta as Sean Hjelle and Jake Wong in his first full pro season.  One of my favorite Giants picks from the 2019 draft. May be a late bloomer.  Giants development guys have to be thinking they can get at least another 2-3 MPH out of that frame.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Parker Chavers

Parker Chavers OF, College(Coastal Carolina).  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 185 lbs.

2018:  .323/.435/.498, 15 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 9 SB, 39 BB, 54 K, 217 AB.
2019:  .316/.435/.612, 9 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 10 SB, 39 BB, 47 K, 209 AB.

Parker Chavers is a smallish, fast, LH hitting CF with some pop in his bat who fits in the Benintendi/Haseley/Swaggerty spectrum.  He was a guy who seemed primed to see his stock rise dramatically with a big junior season, but word is he had shoulder surgery in December and likely won't play until May 1 at the earliest.  Could be a value pick if the injury drops him out of the first round.  If he drops too far, he could opt to stay in school for his senior season, although that takes away most of his financial leverage.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #37 Matt Frisbee

Matt Frisbee RHP.  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'5", 215 lbs.

Low A:  0-1, 2.81, 16 IP, 12.94 K/9, 3.38 BB/9.
A+:  9-8, 3.17, 116.1 IP, 10 13 K/9, 1.70 BB/9.

Matt Frisbee has at least a grade 70 name(BTW, I don't know if he throws a "frisbee slider" or not).  He's been under the radar due to being a later round draft pick(15'th) and less than eye-popping FB velocity.  The numbers are compelling, though and scouts like the Fangraphs Boys are starting to notice the vertical movement on his 90-94 MPH FB which he throws effectively up in the zone getting K's and pop-ups.  He should start the 2020 season in AA Richmond.  I can see a scenario where he gets a mid-late season callup to the major leagues.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Carmen Mlodzinski

Carmen Mlodzinski RHP, College(South Carolina).  6'2", 215 lbs.

2018:  3-6, 5.52, 45.2 IP, 21 BB, 43 K.
2019:  0-0, 5.91, 10.2 IP, 11 BB, 11 K.
2019 CCBL:  2-0, 2.14, 29.1 IP, 4 BB, 40 K.

Carmen Mlodzinski has serious helium coming into a redshirt sophomore season after dominating the Cape Cod League last summer.  He's got some pedigree as he was a highly regarded HS pitcher with a 92 MPH FB in 2017.  He opted to go to college and struggled a bit with his command his freshman season.  Then he fractured his landing foot in the 3'rd game of the 2019 college season.  He hit the weight room during the time off and got himself up to 230 lbs and his FB up to 96 MPH.  He backs the FB up with a curve, slider and changeup.  He reportedly had the FB up to 99 MPH in preseason workouts coming into 2020.

He's kind of ranked all over the place depending on how up to date the various lists are but could definitely challenge for a top 10 draft slot with a big 2020 season and could be a consideration for the Giants if he's on the board at #13.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Bring Back Pablo Sandoval

Pablo Sandoval wants everyone to know he learned his lesson.  He does not ever want to play for a team not named the Giants again, if he can help it.  Today, the Giants answered his prayers and agreed to a minor league deal for $2 M plus $750 K incentives.  It's unclear whether the $2 M is guaranteed or if it is contingent on his making the active roster.  What makes this a bit surprising is Pabs is coming off Tommy John surgery in September and the usual recovery period is a full year.  Maybe it's a bit less than that for position players, and Pabs says he is ahead of schedule in his rehab, but it still seems farfetched to think he will be ready much before midseason.

I love the Panda as much as anyone.  He's given this team and fanbase a lot of thrills as well as ups and downs over the course of his career, but this seems like a sop to a fanbase still smarting over the loss of Madison Bumgarner.  It's like, "see, we're not such ogres after all!  Pabs wants to come back, the fans want him back, here he is!"

Let's say Pablo is way ahead of schedule and is ready to play by May 1.  The Giants are likely to split the 26 man roster evenly between pitchers and position players.  That means there will likely be 5 position bench players which usually gets divided as 2 OF's, 1 IF's and a C.  Of Pabs is one of he IF's, that leaves just one MI which will have to be someone who can play SS in a pinch.  That narrows down the possibilities just a bit, unless someone can play both MI and OF.  We'll see how it plays out, but we're happy to have The Panda back in a Giants uniform!

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It's official.  Dusty Baker is the new Astros manager.  Talk about exact opposites!  The Astros go from being managed by one of the most ruthlessly data driven Manager and GM to hiring one of the oldest of the old school managers out there.  I don't think you are going to see many Openers or early hooks from Dusty.  This should also be very interesting to watch.  As we all know, Dustyball is close to the exact opposite of Moneyball, but Dusty excels at the things Moneyball guys don't seem to get.  It's the same thing Bruce Bochy excelled at, except Boch was also a much better tactician than Dusty.  Both managers know what makes players tick and how to keep them motivated on the field and happy in the clubhouse.  That's something Gabe Kapler still has to prove he's learned after struggling with it in his first managerial stint with the Phillies.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #36 Tyler Fitzgerald

Tyler Fitzgerald SS.  DOB:  9/15/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.

College:  .315/.391/.483, 15 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 18 SB, 30 BB, 50 K, 267 AB.
Rookie(AZL):  .273/.308/.636, 2B, HR, 7.7 BB%, 0.0 K%, 13 PA.
Short Season:  .284/.381/.431, 11 2B, 2 3B, 2 SB, 12.7 BB%, 20.3 K%, 118 PA.
Low A:  .264/.333/.306, 3 2B, 4 SB, 9.6 BB%, 20.5 K%, 83 PA.

Tyler Fitzgerald was a highly touted HS prospect who never quite lived up to expectations in college although he was far from a bad player.  The Fangraphs boys think he has the defensive chops to stay at SS.  He also has the physical size for a lot more power.  He's a project for the Giants new player development team.  So this is interesting.  Fitzgerald should be ready to play SS for the San Jose Giants this spring, but Will Wilson likely has priority for that spot.  He could start out in Augusta, but it's hard to think of a reason why Marco Luciano should not be the Opening Day SS there.  We'll see where that leaves Tyler Fitzgerald.  Farhan loves versatility so maybe they will mix and match position assignments?

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Chris McMahon

Chris McMahon RHP, College(Miami).  6'2", 205 lbs.

2018:  1-1, 4.44, 26.1 IP, 9 BB, 18 K.
2019:  3-2, 3.73, 60.1 IP, 23 BB, 67 K.
Team USA:  0-0, 2.25, 12 IP, 6 BB, 15 K.

Chris McMahon is a fairly typical college pitcher with a high floor....as long as he stays healthy.  He has the classic 3-pitch mix with a sinking FB that hits 96 MPH.  History of knee surgery in 2018 and shoulder tendonitis last season.  Looked strong for Team USA so presumably healthy now.  Stock will likely rise if he has a healthy 2020 college season but could plummet if he misses more time due to physical issues.  Right now looks like another tweener for the Giants who will get picked somewhere between their #13 and #49 picks.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Yolmer Sanchez

As the Hot Stove fired up in back in November, Farhan Zaidi said one of his offseason goals was to find a left-handed bat who could play middle infield.  Well, he finally signed a switch-hitting 2B today, to a minor league contract, of course.  Yolmer Sanchez was released by the White Sox this fall because they did not want to pay him arbitration level wages.  Sanchez is a good defender at 2B and 3B.  Here's the problem:  Sanchez has no stick!  Over the past 3 seasons with the White Sox, who play their home games in a hitter-friendly stadium, Sanchez has seen his OPS drop from .732 to .678 to .638.  Just for comparison sake, here is Joe Panik's OPS's from the last 3 seasons playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park:  .733, .639, .651.  Oh, you say, but Yolmer Sanchez is a much better defender than Panik and will at least make up for his wretched offense with sparkling defense.  Uh, maybe if you think a UZR/150 of 5.0 is a significant upgrade over 2.8, OK.

Even more baffling than the signing itself(hey!  It's a minor league deal so no risk, right?) is the comment in MLBTR that Sanchez actually turned down major league offers because he wanted a chance to compete for a starting job.  I'll let you chew on that one for awhile.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #35 Victor Bericoto

Victor Bericoto 1B/OF.  DOB:  12/3/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 155 lbs.

Rookie(DSL):  .344/.472/.485, 15 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 10 SB, 18.7 BB%, 19.7 K%, 284 PA.
Rookie(AZL):  .273/.273/.318, 2B, 3 SB, 0.0 BB%, 27.3 K%, 22 PA.

Victor Bericoto wasn't one of the headline J2 signings but tore up the DSL.  The most obvious exciting item in his stat line is the K/BB.  Guys who go 1:1 aren't too easy to find.  The SB's are intriguing for a guy who played 1B and corner OF.  That demographic puts a lot of pressure on the bat.  He needs to put the ball in the air more, but given a choice, I would probably want to see the plate discipline from a 17 yo before the power.  I'm guessing he'll stay back in extended spring training and surface back in Arizona in June.

Hot Stove Update: Castellanos to Reds; D'Backs Strike Again

It's now official, Nick Castellanos won't play LF and bat cleanup for the Giants in 2020 and beyond. The RH power hitter the Giants were rumored to be close to signing early in the Hot Stove Season, ended up with the Cincinnati Reds for 4 years/$64 M.  Opt-outs after 2020 and 2021 seasons are included.  For their part, the Reds gave up on rebuilding from within last offseason and suddenly appear on the edge of playoff contention.  They are even rumored to be shopping Nick Senzel who was the centerpiece of their rebuild as recently as a year ago.  So, there's that.

As a Giants fan, I have mixed feelings.  On the one hand, Castellanos would have given the Giants a legitimate cleanup bat in the lineup, something they desperately need.  On the other, he's not a perfect fit for the ballpark or for the NL, for that matter as the defense is a clear liability, something the Giants ballpark tends to make more glaring.  For the moment, the alternative appears to be a platoon of Alex Dickerson and Joey Rickard.  Maybe Dickerson will turn into a cleanup bat if he can stay healthy and Rickard will add just enough on the short end of the platoon to approximate Castellanos production..... OK, who am I kidding?  Castellanos' bat would transform their lineup!  So it's a disappointment to see him go somewhere else.  For those who want to argue that a signing like this is antithetical to rebuilding, if Farhan can't put together a winning team around Castellanos within 4 years, why does he have this job?

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Those D'Backs struck again by trading a couple of lower level prospects for OF Starling Marte who has 2 years left on a team-friendly contract.  Marte is coming off a strong season in which he slashed .295/.342/.503 with 23 HR's and 35 SB's.  While he seems to be more comfortable playing a corner OF post, he is capable of playing CF and will likely be out there for the D'Backs with Ketel Marte moving back to 2B.  So the D'Backs are another team who eschewed the rebuild from within model to aggressively attack the trade and FA markets to put themselves on postseason contention.  So far this offseason they have acquired Marte, Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun and Steven Vogt, all for very reasonable prices.

The D'Backs give up a couple of promising prospects from the lower minors.  I don't know much about Liover Peguero, a young SS, but I scouted RHP Brennan Malone before last year's draft in which the D'Backs selected him #33 overall.  He's go tremendous physical tools with potential to develop into a frontline SP, although he has a lot of development ahead of him.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #34 Rayner Santana

Rayner Santana C.  DOB:  8/5/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 180 lbs.

Rookie(DSL):  .294/.439/.553, 14 2B, 10 HR, 17.3 BB%, 27.1 K%, GB/FB= 0.84, 214 PA.

I generally don't rank DSL players and instead put them in their own category, Dominican Dandies.  I've had to re-think that with 2 players, Luis Matos and Victor Bericoto getting a late-season promotion to Arizona.   Here's another kid who captured my imagination by playing all but the last 2 weeks of the season at age 16.  Power?  10 HR's is a lot for the DSL or any short season league.  Check!  Plate discipline?  The BB% is high for any league, astronomical for the DSL where they say you can't walk off the island.  Check!  Launch angle?  Any GB/FB less than 1 is outstanding.  Check!  I don't know anything more than that and don't know if the Giants plan to bring him to Arizona for his age 17 season, but based on the numbers, they should.

PS:  Found a few photos online.  He looks very athletic and well proportioned physically.  No videos to report on.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Cade Horton

Cade Horton RHP/SS, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 190 lbs.

Not only is Cade Horton a legitimate 2-way baseball player, he's a 2-sport star as an elite pro-style QB.  Add in that he lives in Norman, OK and is committed to OU in both sports and I'll be shocked if he doesn't opt out of the MLB draft and go to college right at home.  He is fully developed physically and sports a FB that gets up to 96 MPH.  Scouts like him more as a pitcher than SS, but he is a legitimate SS prospect both defensively and offensively too.  Most likely going to college.

Hot Stove Update: Marlins Sign Closer KIntzler

I'm not actually sure if I should call Brandon Kintzler a Closer or not.  He hasn't closed many games since 2017, but he did record 46 Saves in 2016 and 2017 with the Twins and Nationals, so he definitely has experience in the role.  He also seemed to be one of the better options on this year's FA market for teams in need of a Closer.  The Giants would seem to be one of those teams in need of a Closer and Kintzler turned out to be quite affordable at 1 yr/$3 M with a $4 M option for 2021 with a $250 K buyout.  Kintzler was coming off a down year in 2018 but posted an ERA of 2.68 for the Cubs last season.  He's never been a classic strike out Closer but gets it done with a low walk rate and a GB% of 54.7(career 56.1%). So why weren't the Giants more interested?  It may be due to his high hard-hit rate(although he also had a low average exit velocity.  Not sure how those two things are possible in the same pitcher, but OK).  His FIP(3.56) and xFIP(4.06) were not as rosy as his ERA.

So, who do the Giants have lined up to be Closer in 2020?  I took a peek at their Depth Chart on sfgiants.com.  There is no Closer listed.  I'll let you look at the Reliever chart and see if you seen any promising candidates:

Tony Watson(L)
Trevor Gott(coming off injury)
Reyes Moronta(coming off injury)
Shaun Anderson
Wandy(Not Wily) Peralta(L)
Sam Coonrod
Tyler Rogers
Jandel Gustave
Dany Jimenez
Andrew Suarez(L)
Conner Menez(L)
Melvin Adon
Burch Smith
Sam Selman(L)
Enderson Franco

There has also been talk of Kevin Gausman or Drew Smyly filling the role, but they seem penciled in as SP's for now.  There are also a few names on the AAA roster to serve as depth, but it's unlikely any of them will close out any MLB games in 2020:  Tyler Cyr, Jake Jewell, Trey McNutt, Sam Moll(L), Trevor Oaks, Tyson Ross, Sam Wolff.

Although there has been zero buzz around the Hot Stove about the Giants looking for a Closer, it sure seems like they should be, even if it's for a guy like Kintzler they might look to flip at the deadline.  Here is a list from MLBTR of FA relievers who have some semblance of closing experience(age in parentheses):

Cody Allen(31)
Greg Holland(34)
Jeremy Jeffress(32)
Addison Reed(31)
Fernando Rodney(43)
Pedro Strop(35)
Arodys Vizcaino(29).

All of these guys are looking to bounce back from something and all are significantly higher risk than Brandon Kintzler, but that also might put them in Farhan's price range.

Thoughts on Jaylin Davis, Outfield Combinations and Conundrums

In a series of recent interviews chronicled by Dr Lefty in her blog, Together We're Giants, Jaylin Davis is emerging as a favorite of Giants management and a potential linchpin of the Giants outfield. Davis seems to get the most mentions by Giants brass in the category of young players they want to get a long look at, which seems to be the emerging theme of the Giants offseason.  In the process, they hint at slowing down The Churn to get those longer looks.  Why is the Giants collective braintrust so interested in Jaylin Davis, you ask?  A clue may come from a Fangraphs article by Jeff Zimmerman from 12/18/2019 where he used his system to identify players who might have a Max Muncy breakout in 2020(The original article unveiling the system was published in Fangraphs 10/11/2018).  Zimmerman calls this list his Voit/Muncy All-Stars.  Here is the statistical combination Luke Voit, Max Muncy and 10 others had the season before their unexpected breakouts:

Age 25-27 in AAA(presumably potential breakouts are not limited to this age range but he used it to narrow his search).

BB% 8.8 or above.

K% 24 or lower.

IsoP .150 or more.

GB% 44 or lower.

Jaylin Davis meets those criteria, barely, and if you use only his AAA stats from Sacramento(BTW, Mauricio Dubon also meets the criteria if you only use his Sacramento stats).  As you may recall Davis struggled in a SSS after during his September callup, but he may have been hampered by a HBP on the hand suffered in one of his early AB's.  So, cool!  Let's put Jaylin Davis out on RF and give him at least 2 months to see if he can make us all forget about Max Muncy(please!?).  Unfortunately, it's not quite that simple.  In the same article by Jeff Zimmerman, Davis makes another list with negative predicted value:  Swinging Strikes on Slow Fastballs in the Strike Zone.  So there's the first conundrum.

Here's where Farhan Zaidi is going to have to start earning his pay, working through the combinations and permutations of the Giants OF situation.  Zaidi appears to have already moved on from the most obvious combination which would have involved bringing Kevin Pillar back in CF and leaving Mike Yastrzemski in RF with or without a RH hitting platoon partner(although Kevin Pillar is still out there on the free agent market).  Farhan's explanation for letting Pillar go was giving young players like Jaylin Davis a serious shot.  This theme is repeated in multiple interviews by new GM Scott Harris, Farhan and Manager Gabe Kapler(Dr Lefty dubbed them SFG).  In addition, the beat writers are reporting YtY as the frontrunner for the staring CF job.  So the Opening Day OF roster looks like Davis in RF, YtY in CF and a platoon of Alex Dickerson/Joey Rickard in LF.  So we'll call this plan A for now.

I could see Farhan swapping out the LF platoon for Nick Castellanos, but it's been a long time since we heard a Nick Castellanos rumor.  Chris Shaw is another younger player who has been mentioned as deserving a longer look, but he's likely the back up plan if Dickerson gets hurt once again.  What about Dubon/Duggar platoon in CF moving YtY over to RF and Davis out of the picture?  The Giants have not acquired the left-handed hitting 2B Farhan said they were looking for, but Donovan Solano could move into a starting role to let Dubon move to CF.  Who backs up Brandon Crawford at SS?  Maybe Abiatal Avelino now that Bruce Bochy is not around to remember him running through the stop sign at 3B to get thrown out at home?

What about a RF platoon with YtY and Jaylin Davis?  That really limits Davis' ceiling since RH batters only get about 1/4-1/3 of PA's in a straight platoon.  If the Giants believe in Davis as much as it sounds like they do, they need to give him more PA's than just the short side of a platoon.

What about another name that has started cropping up in Hot Stove Speculation:  Yasiel Puig?  Puig is basically the same player as Kevin Pillar, so if that's the direction we're going you'd think Pillar would still be on the roster.  On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Farhan has not forgotten a trade involving Puig that brought back Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray to the Dodgers and is aware of another trade that brought Trevor Bauer to the Reds.  We know Farhan is very into flipping players for prospects to build up the farm system.  Again, we get back to how much faith does he have in
Jaylin Davis?  

Looming behind all this is Heliot Ramos and the timetable for his MLB debut.  We still don't know if that will be in CF or RF, but it's coming.  Heliot is still very young and ideally you probably want him to stay in AA all season and push his MLB debut back to midseason 2021 or even 2022, but if all this blows up on Farhan's face and Heliot rakes in Richmond, we could see him sometime in the second half of this season.  Jaylin Davis appears to be the key in all of these combinations but the conundrums are aplenty to deal with too.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #33 Blake Rivera

Blake Rivera RHP.  DOB:  1/9/1998.  6'4", 225 lbs.

Low A:  4-6, 3.95, 73 IP, 10.73 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, GB/FB= 2.50.

Blake Rivera is a big-bodied RHP with a low-mid 90's FB and a curveball that can be a strikeout pitch, but he has challenges commanding.  The groundball and K rates speak to impressive stuff.  The stuff may play up even more as a reliever, but the Giants seem to be developing him as a SP for now.  His size should give him the stamina to hold his stuff deep into games.  His season was interrupted by injury after July 1 although he did appear in a few innings late in the season.  We should see him in San Jose this spring where at age 22 he will be the same age as 4 yr college draftees in their first full season.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Drew Romo

Drew Romo C, HS.  B-S, T-R.  6'1", 205 lbs

Romo is a switch-hitting HS C with advanced defensive skills, although the Fangraphs boys seem to think he is a bit slow out of the squaaaat.  The bat also looks good with both present and projectable power.  HS catchers are notoriously tough to project, maybe a tougher demographic than HS pitchers who are always dicey.  He's projected on some boards as a mid-first rounder, but probably another tweener for the Giants.  #13 is probably to rich for him and if he's still there in round 2, he just might honor his commitment to LSU.

Thoughts on Madison Bumgarner and the Giants Offseason(So Far)

Yesterday, we had several follow up comments regarding my post about the Giants signing Darren Ruf.  LG, whose thoughtful comments I always appreciate, mentioned he isn't sure how I feel about the Giants failure to re-up Madison Bumgarner, losing him to a division rival.  So let's circle back to this issue and see if we can come to terms with it and move on.  First of all, I just want to say a big part of why I write this blog is to have fun.  I don't do it for money, that's for sure!  BTW, I think time is proving that money corrupts blogs just like everything else, but that's all I'm going to say about that!  In the spirit of having fun, I will sometimes bust out my ironic, slightly off-kilter sense of humor.  So, I might whack the bees nest with a stick or pull the tiger's tail once in awhile just to see what mayhem it might cause.  I also try to write with some nuance and try very hard to not see things as either/or or black and white.  I don't happen to think Bobby Evans was as bad as he's made out to be in some corners, and I think it remains to be seen if Farhan Zaidi is the all-knowing genius some seem to think.  That doesn't mean everything Bobby Evans did was great or that Zaidi has not made some impressive moves since taking over as GM.

With that out of the way, what do I think of the Madison Bumgarner situation?  For my initial reaction, I will call your attention to my post from Sunday, December 15, 2019 entitled Hot Stove Update:  A Giants Legend Moves On.  If you are interested enough, you can go look it up for yourself, but here are a couple of key excerpts:  1.  "So yeah, it's a sad day.  What makes it harder to swallow is the contract he ultimately signed seems to be well within the Giants budgetary constraints and within the performance levels he can reasonably be expected to produce the next 5 seasons......In short, re-signing Bummy.....would not halt or delay any 'rebuild' in any way shape or form.  OK, maybe the extra draft pick turns into a Hall of Famer, but it's highly unlikely."  2.  "On the other hand, I am not going to lead the 'fire Farhan' charge over this.  Bummy has a ton of mileage on his arm and large longterm contracts haven't exactly worked out well for the Giants over the past decade, so I understand the argument for letting him go.  I've made it myself!"  And here's one more key thought: "Hopefully Farhan.....will re-allocate money that might have been used to sign Bummy to other good things."

Since I wrote that post, it's come out that the die may have been cast on Bumgarner leaving a long time ago, and it all makes perfect sense.  Giants management was reportedly preparing an extension  when the infamous dirt bike caper happened.  It may have been interrupted again by the fractured hand the following spring.  It seems like maybe the Giants top management, all the way up to ownership level, lost some trust in Bummy over the dirt bike thing.  For his part, Bummy did not think  pulling back on the extension was fair to him.  In this regard, I have to say my sympathies are more with management, and we really can't blame Farhan for any of that.  On top of all that, it also came out that the Bumgarners own a horse ranch outside of Scottsdale, AZ and Bum had a dream of being able to live there when his team played at home.  Well then, there's not much Farhan Zaidi can do about that either!

So, where does that leave us and where do we go from here?  Some folks seem to want to paint this as a choice between the future and the past, between rebuilding or reshuffling the deck and doubling down on a bad hand.  I believe that is a false choice.  The Giants have the resources to compete now and rebuild.  They don't have to "tank" until 2022, when most of the "bad" contracts will be finished.  There are more ways than one to accomplish these dual goals of competing now and building an organization for sustained competitiveness.  They can continue to churn the roster at the margins and use the power of chance to uncover a breakout player or two while accelerating development of the farm system. That seems to be Farhan's major MO, so far although we must remember the Hot Stove is still burning out there.  They can also sign free agents whose market is distressed for some reason to short term contracts that can be easily traded or jettisoned.  Farhan seems to be active in the market for these too.

Lastly, a big longterm contract for a "franchise player" is not antithetical to a rebuild.  These contracts are typically for 5-7 years.  If Farhan can't have this team back in the playoffs within 5 years, then why is he the GM?  So, if one of those players is available and you have the financial resources to sign them, by all means, make that part of the rebuild!  Having said that, I recognize you have to be careful who you give those contracts to.  A few years ago, a lot of folks thought the answer was to re-sign your own homegrown players.  Well, how has that worked out for the Giants?  The one guy in this year's market who I think deserved that "franchise" label and contract was Gerrit Cole.  Unfortunately, I think he had his heart set on playing for the Yankees and the Yankees wanted him as much as he wanted them, so no chance for the Giants there.  As for the other market options, I'll save that for another post I am ruminating on about dilemmas and conundrums in roster building.  Stay tuned!

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So, the first comment I get here is an example of why I am reluctant to publish comments when I disagree with the premise of the comment and am not able to rebut within the comment sections.  I do not accept the premise that this team is currently hopelessly out of contention.  Yes, they appear to be as of this moment and with this roster, but what if you add an ace SP, a cleanup level bat in the OF and a reliable Closer?  That team might not be likely to win the division, but it could contend for a playoff spot and we all know what can happen once you are in the postseason.  Those pieces are, or were, available on the FA/trade market this cycle, or we might all be pleasantly surprised to find one or two from within the organization and/or Churn.

But yeah, a word of warning.  I will not publish any more comments premised on the notion that the Giants should not try to compete because they are non-competitive.  Just stop!  If you fervently believe that, fine, but you can take those comments somewhere else because I don't have the time, patience or energy to keep on rebutting them after every post and I'm not going to let them hijack the blog.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects List: #32 Trevor McDonald

Trevor McDonald RHP.  DOB:  2/26/2001.  6'2", 180 lbs.

Rookie(AZL):  0-0, 2.25, 4 IP, 18.00 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

Trevor McDonald "popped up" late in the draft cycle with an "absolutely electric" performance at the January 2019 World Showcase(per PG).  FB 95 which he threw down in the zone with "outstanding sinking and running life."  Curveball was "tight and sharp".  Slider had "shorter off the barrel actions."  "Potential plus changeup....with big diving life."  "Four present plus pitches and fills up the zone."  On video he's got a strong build with some projection left.  Long arms and legs.  Low effort delivery.  McDonald attributes his velocity jump to taking a year off to concentrate on adding weight and building muscles which increased his weight from 165 to 180 lbs.  In videos, he looks like he could easily add another 10 lbs to the frame.

The Giants drafted him in round 11, but put together an above-slot bonus of $800 K.  So, they got BA's #151 ranked draft prospect with the #326 draft pick.  The Giants history with HS pitchers drafted after the first round is not encouraging here, but McDonald has significantly better scouting reports than past draft lottery tickets in this demographic.  Saw just 4 innings of game action after the draft but struck out 8 batters.  Will we see him in Augusta this spring or will the Giants keep him in extended spring training and give him more innings in rookie ball for his age 19 season?  Wherever he surfaces, we'll be watching with great interest.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Reid Detmers

Reid Detmers LHP, College(Louisville).  6'2", 210 lbs.

2018:  4-2, 4.85, 55.2 IP, 34 BB, 69 K.
2019:  13-4, 2.78, 113/1 IP, 33 BB, 167 K.

Reid Detmers throws a low-90's FB and is maxed out physically, so is not going to get a lot of love on scouting reports.  What he does have is a terrific curveball that he throws from the same arm slot/release point as his FB.  He is able to drop it in for strikes after it stays up and out of the zone for so long, hitters just give up on it.  He can also use it as a finishing pitch out of the zone to get the K. Combine that with a FB he can spot to both sides of the plate, up or down in the zone plus a slider and changeup and you have a very high floor pitcher.  He's probably another tweener for the Giants in that #13 is probably a bit rich for his profile and he's not likely to last until #49.  On the other hand, an extra tick or two on the FB and he's suddenly a potential ace.  Look for him to rise on draft boards as draft day approaches as is common with college pitchers.  Anyway, do yourself a favor and look up his curveball on videos.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #31 Franklin Labour

Franklin Labour OF.  DOB:  5/11/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 190 lbs.

Short Season:  .307/.392/.639, 9 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 2 SB, 9.5 BB%, 22.8 K%, 189 PA.
Low A:  .215/.282/.299, 6 2B, HR, 6.8 BB%, 34.2 K%, 117 PA.

Franklin Labour mostly showed gap power and a decent walk rate in 3 seasons of rookie ball before putting on a huge power show in Salem-Keizer last season.  That earned him a promotion to Augusta where he.....face-planted.  Where he is assigned in 2020 becomes a problem as the Giants have a large contingent of young OF prospects vying for playing time in Augusta.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: CJ Van Eyk

CJ Van Eyk RHP, College(Florida St).  6'1", 200 lbs.

2018:  7-0, 2.86, 56.2 IP, 30 BB, 70 K, 2 Saves.
2019:  10-4, 3.81, 99.1 IP, 41 BB, 129 K.

CJ Van Eyk(pronounced Ike) is another sturdy college RHP with 3 above average pitches.  The FB runs 92-96 MPH(Sits 94-95 in one video I saw).  The curve is fairly firm with a short, sharp downward bit at strike zone.  The change up has both sink and fade. The big challenge for 2020 is to improve command and throw fewer pitches(100 in 4.2 IP in one game).  He's probably a tweener for the Giants:  Not enough ceiling to take 13'th overall, but won't last until #49.   But, expect all of the college pitcher stocks to rise as the draft approaches(assuming maintenance of health) relative to HS players.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Power Hitting OF

The Giants finally found their RH power hitting left fielder in Darin Ruf.  Darin Ruf?  You may recall Darin Ruf as a big dude with some pop who played for the Phillies a few years ago.  What-the-heck happened to him?  Well, he's spent the last 3 seasons in Korea where he hit .313 with 86 HR.  Per Jayson Stark of The Athletic, the Giants signed him to a minor league deal, presumably with a spring training invitation.  I can see it clearly now.  Ruf is going to hit about 10 HR's in spring training and totally make the team as at least a RH platoon option for 1B and LF.  Then he'll hit about .200 in the regular season until he is DFA'd.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #30 Diego Rincones

Diego Rincones OF.  DOB:  6/14/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs.

Low A:  .295/.346/.415, 25 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 6.1 BB%, 12.7 K%, 442 PA.
A+:  .247/.375/.384, 4 2B, 2 HR, 12.5 BB%, 9.1 K%, 88 PA.

Diego Rincones is a 2-tool player.  Hit and throw are the two and the hit is good enough that it just might get him to the major leagues someday.  The barriers to that outcome are his physique, which Fangraphs describes as "plump", and a present lack of HR power. From videos, he looks like he weighs considerably more than 175 lbs.  Corner OF with gap power is definitely not the demographic Farhan Zaidi puts value in.  Other factors working in his favor is a not terrible walk rate to got with the low K's and he puts more balls in the air than on the ground.  With just a bit more oomph in his swing, more of those gappers might find their way over fences.  We should see him in San Jose to start the season.  This is his 5'th pro season which means he'll be Rule 5 Draft eligible next Winter Meetings.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Dax Fulton

Dax Fulton LHP, HS.  6'6", 220 lbs.

Dax Fulton is a big, tall LHP with premium stuff and a ton of projectability.  He blew away opponents on the showcase circuit featuring a FB that tops out at 94 MPH backed up by a wipeout breaking ball and a decent changeup he does not throw often.  Fulton comes over the top with a wind-up and delivery reminiscent of Clayton Kershaw.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so drafting teams will have to evaluate him based on information they already have.  He rescinded a commitment to Vanderbilt and signed on with Oklahoma, which should make him more signable.  Fangraphs thinks he will get drafted after the first round by a team with multiple early picks and get a large over-slot bonus.  That scenario would definitely put the Giants in the running.  Farhan is well known to not shy away from pitchers with injuries histories.  There is a lot of risk here, probably too much for #13 overall, but the ceiling is special and definitely worth an overslot bonus in Round 2 if he falls that far.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #29 Grant McCray

Grant McCray OF.  DOB:  12/7/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 170 lbs.

Rookie(AZL):  .270/.379/.335, 5 2B, 2 3B, HR, 17 SB, 13.6 BB%, 24.5 K%, GB/FB= 2.92, 220 PA.

Grant McCray was a little noticed, HS prospect with some tools leading up to the draft(Fangraphs didn't rank him).  The Giants reached out and grabbed him in the third round.  He's got 50-60 tools across the board except for power which I think may still be projectable.  His top tool is speed and he projects as a true CF who can lead off and steal some bases.  In addition to the tools, Grant has some baseball pedigree. His father, Rodney McCray got 14 MLB AB's but is immortalized by a baseball "bloopers" video of him crashing through an OF wall after catching a gapper somewhere in the minor leagues.

There are some very nice numbers in his pro debut and also some things to improve on.  The first thing I notice is the walk rate and OBP.  Very nice, especially for a low power guy.  Fangraphs says he's tracking pitches well and being appropriately selective.  Breaking it down into splits, there was a slow start hitting just .114 in 43 PA in June but then .292 in July and .321 in August.  I find that encouraging for the future too.  The low power is due to an extremely high GB rate.  Maybe he's trying to be a slap/leadoff hitter, but he has the physical tools to be much more than that with a long body that has room to add at least 20 lbs of muscle without compromising his speed and athleticism.  Fangraphs mentions a need to alter his swing mechanics.  Here's a project for the Giants player developers to get that FB rate up and start sending balls up the gaps and out of the park.

There's going to be a fight for OF spots in Augusta this spring, but as a 3'rd round draft pick it seems like he should have and early shot, unless the Giants keep him back in extended spring training to work on the swing.

Hot Stove Update: Ozuna to Braves; Churn Baby, Churn!

The Braves pivoted from losing out on Josh Donaldson to a 1 year/$18 M deal for OF Marcell Ozuna. This is a terrific low risk deal for the Braves, although it leaves their 3B situation unsettled with a battle between last year's bust, Austin Riley, and Johan Camargo.  As it stand, the Braves OF will likely shake out to Ozuna in LF, Ender Inciarte in CF and Ronald Acuna Jr in RF.  Nick Markakis likely stands to lose innings and PA's barring injuries.

What makes this tough to take is the Giants need a bopper RH bat in the OF and Ozuna seems like an almost perfect fit.  Wasn't going to happen with the QO and Farhan hanging onto his draft picks for dear life(I am totally on board with not giving up first round draft picks, but when you have 5 out of the top 100, giving up a one of the non-first rounders seems like a small price to pay for signing a guy like Ozuna.  Meanwhile......

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Remember Jake Jewell?  Oh right!  He's the RHP the Giants DFA'd Zack Cozart to sign from the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago.  Well, now Jewell is DFA'd to make room for Angels pitching prospect Luis Maduro.  Yeah him!  Oh, you've never heard of him?  Neither have I!

The Giants also handed out another spring training invite to C Rob Brantly.  Brantly is....you guessed it, a LH batter.  He just doesn't hit very well despite his ability to hit out of the LH batter's box.

Churn on!

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #28 Tristan Beck

Tristan Beck RHP.  DOB:  6/24/1996.  6'4", 165 lbs.

Rookie(Braves):  0-0, 4.00, 9 IP, 4 BB, 14 K.
A+(Braves):  2-2, 5.65, 36.2 IP, 14 BB, 39 K.
A+(Giants):  3-2, 2.27, 35.2 IP, 13 BB, 37 K.
AFL:  1-2, 3.63, 22.1 IP, 7 BB, 23 K.

I went to a game in San Bernardino in mid-August hoping to see Sean Hjelle pitch.  I got Tristan Beck instead and was pleasantly surprised by what I saw.  First of all, he looks more stout than his listed weight.  He's got a classic long-limbed pitcher's body with smooth athletic movements.  His FB was by far his best pitch ranging from 92-96 MPH with solid command.  He also had a curveball that looked like a wipeout pitch at times but with inconsistent command.  I don't recall if I saw a changeup or not, but if I did, it seemed to be a non-factor.  In the end, he had a nice line of 5.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K's.  Beck capped off his season with a successful Arizona Fall League campaign against elite prospects in a hitter-friendly environment.

Beck has the prospect pedigree as he was a projected first round draft pick out of HS, but chose to attend Stanford instead.  After a successful freshman season, he lost his entire sophomore year to a back injury.  He pitched well but not great in his junior season and fell to the fourth round to the Braves.  He lost some time early in 2019 to an oblique strain and Farhan Zaidi was able to pry him away in the Mark Melancon trade, a remarkable achievement on Farhan's part.  He's going to have to get more consistent with the curveball and develop a credible third pitch, but he has the tools to be a major league SP.  I would expect to see him with AA Richmond after the successful fall season.  He has a chance to move way up this list by next year.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Jerry Blevins

The Giants signed LHP Jerry Blevins to a minor league deal with and a NRI to spring training.  Blevins has been around the block a few times including, not surprisingly, an extended tour with the Oakland A's back in the Farhan Zaidi days.  That, combined with Farhan's fetish for stockpiling lefty relievers, should have made this signing predictable.  Blevins is now 36 years old and has parts of 13 seasons under his belt.  He pitched successfully last year for the Braves to a stat line of 1-0, 3.90, 32.1 IP, 16 BB, 37 K.  Along the way, he had dramatic splits holding LH hitters to a .540 OPS while getting torched by RH hitters at an .831 clip.

It will be interesting to see how lefty specialists, aka LOOGY's, fare with the new reliever rules which force them to face 3 batters or finish an inning, whichever comes first.  On the surface, it seems like lefties with recent starting experience such as Andrew Suarez or Conner Menez might be better for the lefty reliever role than a classic LOOGY type such as Blevins.  I would also point out the Giants already have lefties Wandy Peralta and Sam Selman on the 40 man roster, although either could be easily jettisoned to make room for Blevins if that's the direction the Giants decide to go.

In any event, between the 40-man roster and Sacramento, Farhan will figure out how to keep as many lefty relievers within the organization as possible.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Freddy Zamora

Freddy Zamora SS, College(Miami).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 180 lbs.

2018:  .303/.388/.412, 12 2B, 4 3B, HR, 20 SB, 9.72 BB%, 7.29 K%, 247 PA.
2019:  .296/.393/.447, 12 2B, 6 HR, 13 SB, 31 BB,  27 K, 199 AB.

Freddy Zamora's ticket to a high draft slot is his glove.  The problem with most college SS's is they just don't have the defensive tools to play the position in the majors.  Zamora has plus range, hands and arm and can easily field the position at the highest levels.  The question with Zamora is the bat.  He has a high contact approach and the power did tick up to 6 HR's his sophomore season, but most teams are looking for more power even at the SS position in the majors these days.  He does have speed to steal a base, although he was hampered by a hammy last spring.  He does have enough size to produce power.  If there's a team out there that thinks they can develop it, he could go late first round.  Otherwise he's more of a round 3-4 type.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #27 Sandro Fabian

Sandro Fabian OF.  DOB:  3/6/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 180 lbs.

Rookie(AZL):  .219/.366/.500, 3 2B, 2 HR, 12.2 BB%, 31.7 K%, 41 PA.
A+:  .287/.353/.413, 4 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 3 SB, 7.5 BB%, 17.6 K%, 187 PA.

Sandro Fabian has pretty much dropped off radar screens for most prospect watchers.  He is not listed  in Fangraphs top 36 Giants prospects or MLB Pipeline's Giants Top 30.  Fabian had a rough 2018 when he hit just .200 for SJ and completely collapsed in the second half.  He got a late start on 2019 presumably due to injury, but then put up very respectable numbers back in SJ while significantly raising his walk rate and reducing his K rate.  The bat is going to have to play as he is definitely not a CF.  2020 is likely close to a make-or-break year for him.  I don't know if he's ready for AA, but he needs to show he can handle that level to remain a prospect.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #26 Logan Wyatt

Logan Wyatt 1B.  DOB:  11/15/1997.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 230 lbs.

College:  .291/.458/.470, 12 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 8 SB, 22.08 BB%, 15.26 K%, 308 PA.
R(AZL):  .375/.448/.417, 13.79 BB%, 20.69 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season:  .284/.385/.403, 2 2B, 2 HR, 12.82 BB%, 11.54 K%, 78 PA.
Low A:  .233/.368/.333, 3 2B, HR, 15.79 BB%, 18.42 K%, 76 PA.

The first two Giants draft picks in the Farhan Zaidi era each have distinctive, though different, statistical profiles.  First rounder Hunter Bishop has an extreme three true outcomes approach.  Logan Wyatt has extreme selectivity, but keeps his walk rates low with more muted power than Bishop.  The first comp that comes to mind when looking at Wyatt's stat lines is Joey Votto.  Wow!  Joey Votto is the guy who found the holy grail of pitch recognition!  With just a little more power, you can easily project a Vottoesque career for Logan Wyatt, and wouldn't we all be thrilled with that?  Before we get too giddy at that thought, here's a couple of slash lines to consider:

Player A:  .287/.363/.437.
Player B:  .269/.364/.445.

Player A is Joey Votto and the line is his ATT/Oracle Park split.  Player B is......Brandon Belt and the line is also his ATT/Oracle Park split.  So yeah, Logan Wyatt's ceiling is Joey Votto whose career would likely be very similar to Brandon Belt's had Votto played all these years walking in Brandon Belt's size 15 shoes, which either says something really good about Brandon Belt or something really bad about Joey Votto depending on which side you take in the "Belt Wars."  Wyatt will have to kick the power up a notch to get close to either one, though.

Wyatt's should start out the 2020 season assigned to San Jose and we'll follow his career with great interest.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Casey Martin

Casey Martin SS, College(Arkansas).  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.

2018:  .345/.418/.556, 14 2B, 13 HR, 8 SB, 27 BB, 64 K, 252 AB.
2019:  .287/.369/.556, 19 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 10 SB, 29 BB, 71 K, 261 AB.

Casey Martin may be small, but he's one of the most tooled up position players in this year's college draft class.  Hit and power are obvious, although some scouts worry his size may force him to sell out for power too much which may explain his relatively high K rates.  The arm is probably average for SS, while speed is rated as 80 by Fangraphs and 75 by MLB Pipeline(the only objective number I've see is a 6.6 60 in HS, which is very good, but not an 80).  Fangraphs has him ranked at #24 but as the #7 college position prospect.  MLB Pipeline has him at #15.  He profiles similarly to Will Wilson except with a lot more speed(if you put on some glasses with a rose tint, you can see a comp to Trea Turner here.  If the Giants were interested in drafting Wilson at #4 overall and were willing to pay $12 M for him in a salary dump trade, I could definitely see them taking Casey Martin at #13 if he is on the board there, but it also wouldn't be shocking if he vaulted into he top 10 with a strong junior season.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Jared Jones

Jared Jones RHP/OF, HS.   6'2", 175 lbs.

Jared Jones is a potential 2-way player who projects as a pitcher.  He doesn't have ideal size for a top pitching draft prospect, but there is nothing small about his stuff.  He has strong, fluid, athletic body and limb movements.  FB is 92-96 MPH with late movement, a fading, sinking changeup that is developed beyond his years and a hard breaking pitch that can also get K's.  He runs a 6.7 60 and has a rocket arm in the OF with at least gap power to all fields at the plate.  I'm always hesitant to rank a HS pitcher too high, especially ones on the smaller side, but he's a mid-first round talent who might be ranked later only because this seems like a strong, deep draft class especially for pitchers, both HS and college.  There are probably better options for the Giants at #13 and he likely won't be on the board at #49.  He is committed to Texas and may want to go to college and maintain his 2-way options.

DrB's 2020 Top 50 Prospects: #25 David Villar

David Villar 3B.  DOB:  1/27/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 215 lbs.

A+:  .262/.334/.421, 24 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 4 SB, 8.4 BB%, 30.1 K%.

David Villar is another guy with some toonder in his bat who may strike out too much for it to be usable.  Playing is first full pro season in San Jose, he got off to a slow start, missed some time with an injury then put together really strong May, June and July before tailing off in August. He went 5 for 13 with a HR in the 3 game playoff series against Visalia.  He should move up to Richmond for 2020.  Someone named him the top defensive 3B in the Cal league which kind of surprised me because I was under the impression defense was not his strong point.  He seems to be flying under the radar of a lot of prospect watchers. For instance, Fangraphs does not have him in their Giants top 36.  I regard him as an intriguing prospect who should be in the top 30.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #24 Aramis Garcia

Aramis Garcia C.  DOB:  1/12/1993.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 220 lbs.

AAA:  .271/.343/.488, 20 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 9.2 BB%, 30.7 K%, 371 PA.
MLB:  .143/.217/.310, 2B, 2 HR, 8.7 BB%, 45.7 K%.

Aramis Garcia is bit of a conundrum.  He has toonder in his bat.  The big question is whether he can translate that into usable power due to dismal K rates.  On top of that, he's sandwiched between a pretty good veteran starting C in Buster Posey and a #2 overall draft pick in Joey Bart who is coming up from behind in the organization.  The problem with trying to unlock Garcia's power is he's the type of guy who needs lots of PA's to find his true value.  As a backup C, he's likely to continue to hit a HR here and there but put up dismal overall lines.  Bat him in the 7 hole for a full season and he just might catch fire and hit dingers in bunches.  He's helped his chances out by playing some 1B and I wonder if he could handle LF in a pinch.  It sounds like the Giants are going to give him a shot at backup C, although I have a feeling Tyler Heineman is going to give him a bigger battle some anticipate.  Garcia has one more option left, so could start the season back in Sacramento.

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I made a late flip of Aramis Garcia and David Villar moving Aramis up from #25 and Villar down from #24.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Drew Smyly; Hire First Woman MLB Coach

On a day when almost all the other baseball(and other) news was bad, the Giants gave their fans a couple of thing to be happy about.  LHP Drew Smyly signed a 1 year/$4 M contract with an interesting set of bonuses split between starting and relieving with a series of escalators for starts, relief appearances and games finished.  It looks like his best payday is to be a starter all season with up to $3 M available after his 12'th start.  After Madison Bumgarner jumped ship to Arizona, the best remaining SP's on the FA market were LHP Alex Wood, RHP Taijuan Walker, RHP Chad Bettis and Smyly.  In retrospect, we should have guessed it would be Smyly who Farhan signed.  First, he's a LHP, which Farhan is known to like to stockpile and the Giants were short of, and Gabe Kapler was the manager of the team he found success with last season, the Phillies.

Smyly was once one of those sneaky good pitchers who fantasy baseball players liked to grab for the back end of their rosters.  He is generally thought of a SP.  He made 30 starts for the Rays in 2015, but he also made 63 relief appearances for the Tigers in 2013 with 2 Saves, so he has experience as a Closer too.  He is big at 6'3", 190 lbs.  He has a 4 pitch mix, FB with an average velocity of 91.4), cutter, curveball and changeup.

He signed on with the Rangers for the 2019 season but got lit up in 13 appearances and was released. He was briefly with the Brewers but never threw a pitch for them and then signed with the Phillies.  He allowed just one run in 13 IP in his first two starts for the Phils including 7 innings of shutout ball against the Giants in his second start.  He then had his ups and downs but finished on a high note with a line of 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 10 K's in his final start against the eventual World Series Champion Nationals.

Now with a full season under his belt post-TJ, Smyly could be poised for a big season which may be helped by pitching in a friendlier pitching environment.  The cost is negligible and maintains payroll flexibility to make more moves before the season starts.  Nice signing by Farhan and the gang!

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The Giants also made some positive history by hiring the first woman coach at the MLB level.  Alyssa Nakken was a softball star for Sacramento State and earned a degree in Sports Management.  She has worked for the Giants since 2014, most recently as director of Health and Wellness initiatives.  She now has the title of Assistant Coach and will be in uniform prior to games.  She will assist other coaches in multiple roles but will focus on "clubhouse culture" promoting a "sense of collaboration and team" according to Manager Gabe Kapler.

In addition to Nakken, the Giants moved last year's Manager at Salem-Keizer, Mark Hallberg, to the MLB club as a second assistant coach who will have similar duties as Nakken.  BTW, Hallberg was a teammate of Buster Posey's at Florida St.

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Former Giant Carlos Beltran, who allegedly helped mastermind the Astros sign-stealing scheme but was not punished by the Commish because punishments were limited to management, resigned as Manager of the Mets without ever appearing in a game.  Meanwhile, there is a theory out there gaining traction on social media that the Astros were also using some type of transmitter in their uniforms to transmit information about signs with a couple of video clips of Jose Altuve serving as exhibits A and B.  Too soon to know if this is a case of social media breaking a story or another case of promoting fake news.

Blogger's Note

I am currently having problems accessing the blog from my phone, so will not be able to post comments until evening.  Sorry for the negative impact on your commenting experience.

DrB

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #23 Caleb Baragar

Caleb Baragar LHP.  DOB:  4/9/1994.  6'4", 215 lbs.

A+:  0-1, 2.70, 16.2 IP, 11.88 K/9, 4.32 BB/9.
AA:  5-5, 3.45, 120 IP, 8.03 K/9, 3.23 BB/9.
0-0, 10.38, 4.1 IP, 12.46 K/9, 4.15 BB/9.

A #23 ranking in the Giants farm system is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Future Value, but #23 may still be too high for Caleb Baragar.  I'm putting him here for a simple reason, big LHP's with some success in the higher minors are probably the most likely demographic to get a serious MLB shot simply due to scarcity, although new MLB minimum batter rules may reduce demand.

It's not easy to find a scouting report on Baragar and that in itself is generally not a good sign.  He did take a big step forward statistically in 2019 and put up nice numbers for AA Richmond with a late season promotion to AAA.  What does not show up in the stat lines is a line of 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K's and a MVP in the AAA Championship game.  That should be enough to put him on the 2020 River Cats roster where he will be positioned for a callup should a need arise at the MLB level.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #22 Conner Menez

Conner Menez LHP.  DOB:  5/29/1995.  6'3", 205 lbs.

AA:  3-3, 2.72, 59.2 IP, 10.56 K/9, 3.02 BB/9.
AAA:  3-1, 4.84, 61.1 IP, 12.33 K/9, 4.40 BB/9.
MLB:  0-1, 5.29, 17 IP, 11.65 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

When Conner Menez was drafted in Round 16 of the 2016 draft out of a small faith-based college in Santa Clarita, CA, he looked like he might have a chance to be an organizational or "roster filler" pitcher in the minors.  Instead, he dominated out of the gate and ended up starting 5 games for the San Jose Giants that summer.  He stayed in San Jose for all of 2017 and early 2018, but then his K/9 took a big jump into double digits which got him promoted to AA and finally a couple of starts in AAA.  You can see the numbers from last year culminating in a late season callup.  Although the ERA looks ugly, the line does not show that over his last 5 appearances, all out of the bullpen, he went 0-0, 0.00, 4.1 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 8 K's.

Conner's big challenge is obviously keeping the walk rate at manageable levels but he has an outside shot at making the 2020 Opening Day roster as a lefty option in the bullpen.  More likely, he'll get sent back to AAA to polish up his game and wait for an opportunity, which is likely to come at some point.  Menez features a classic 4-pitch mix of FB that averages 91+ which he throws about 60% of the time, a slider(15%), changeup(15%) and curveball(9%).  Statistically the FB and CH are his best pitches but they are all close to average in effectiveness.

Hot Stove Update: Twins Sign Donaldson; More Fallout From "Signgate"

The Twins emerged as winners of the Josh Donaldson sweepstakes, but at a hefty cost.  The deal calls for 4 years/$84 M with a $16 M option for a 5'th year with an $8 M buyout for a total guarantee of $92 M.  That's a lot of years for a 34 year old, but hey!  The Twins are built to win now and Donaldson is still a ferocious hitter coming off a healthy season.  Twins still have issues with their pitching, but those pitchers won't lack for run support! Unlikely this deal will have any impact on the Giants but there is an outside chance it could create a market for Evan Longoria.

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Ever since a certain political scandal brought down a POTUS over 45 years ago, all scandals have to have the suffix ....gate attached to them.  So we'll call this one Signgate.  The fallout continued today as the Boston Red Sox read the tea leaves and decided not to wait for Rob Manfred to bring down the ax on Alex Cora.  They fired him which now makes two MLB managers and one GM fired within 24 hours and two teams without managers within 1 month of the start of spring training.  Gotta wonder if a third, Carlos Beltran, might be the next to go since he is also deeply implicated, but apparently not at risk for discipline since he was a player at the time.  There is lots of talk about the Astros and Red Sox hiring Dusty Baker or Bruce Bochy.  Dusty is almost certainly available, but Boch is reportedly sticking to his pledge to step back from the game for awhile.

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Well, that didn't take long!  The Giants DFA'd Zack Cozart to make room for.....anyone ever hear of Jake Jewell?  Me neither!  Jewell is 26 years old and according to MLBTR "....has yet to find big league success..."  He's pitched parts of two seasons with the Angels and allowed 20 runs in 28.1 IP.  He is reportedly a hard thrower with a plus slider, but also has "persistent" control issues.  A project for the development gurus Farhan has put together.  Cozart was likely to start the season on the DL so I figured the Giants would keep him on the 40 man until the season then 60 day IL him kind of like what they did with Steven Vogt last year, but apparently Farhan just couldn't pass up the opportunity to keep the churn going.  We'll see.  There's still a chance Cozart stays on the organization on a minor league deal while collecting his guaranteed $12 M. In that case it could be a smart move by Farhan.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #21 Chris Shaw

Chris Shaw OF/1B.  DOB:  10/20/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 226 lbs.

AA:  .288/.368/.500, 9 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 10.4 BB%, 18.1 K%, 182 PA.
AAA:  .298/.355/.592, 18 2B, 3B, 21 HR, 6.5 BB%, 25.2 K%, 310 PA.
MLB:  .056/.150/.056, 20 PA.

Chris Shaw has "light tower" power.  The only question is it usable at the MLB level?  The Giants sent a message to Shaw last spring when they assigned him to AA after almost 800 PA in AAA.  The message was, "cut down on the K's!"  To his credit he did that, at least until he got another cup of coffee in the majors at the end of the season.  Shaw has 2 more minor league options so it's very likely he will start the season in Sacramento again.  It's a challenge with Brandon Belt esconced at 1B and a crowded OF situation.  Shaw is limited to LF, so will have to wait until Alex Dickerson has his injury and possibly other roster shakeouts to get an extended look.  If he ever finds traction on one of the MLB opportunity windows, the power display could be fun to watch.

Thoughts on Crime and Punishment

So wow!  The Commish came down on the Astros today and the nuclear fallout is still raining down! Here's the deets:

1.  Commish held GM Jeff Luhnow and Manager AJ Hinch responsible for the sign stealing scheme even though they apparently were not involved in planning or implementing it.  Hinch actually actively opposed it, but failed to take steps that could have ended it.  After the Red Sox Apple Watch scandal, Manfred made it clear that teams management would be held responsible for future violations and he stuck to his guns.  Luhnow and Hinch both received 1 year suspensions.

2.  Almost immediately, Astros owner, Jim Crane, fired both Luhnow and Hinch, which he pretty much had to do.  This also means he is now without a GM in the middle of team-building season and will have to hire a new manager before spring training.

3.  The Astros as an organization were also fined $5 M, the maximum allowed by MLB's constitution.  That's chump change to an MLB team, but what is not chump change is the forfeiture of 1 consecutive first and second round draft picks in 2020 and 2021.  Should the Astros lose any of those picks for some reason, the penalty would be extended beyond those years until the required number of forfeitures is complete.  As Giants fans know all too well, when you lose first round draft picks or they don't pan out, it cripples your talent flow and success cannot be sustained.  The draft pick penalties are probably the harshest of all.

4.  The scheme was actually apparently hatched and carried out by two guys who are no longer with the Astros, Red Sox Manager Alex Cora and newly named Mets Manager Carlos Beltran.  Yes, THAT Carlos Beltran!  There is apparently another sign-stealing investigation ongoing into Alex Cora in his role as Red Sox manager. Manfred ominously said he would decide Cora's punishment after that investigation is complete which could happen about the time spring training or the season starts.  Yikes!  Don't think I would be sleeping too well right now if I'm Alex Cora!  Beltran apparently is off the hook since he was a player at the time and it was up to management to stop him. Not sure I agree with that, but them's apparently the rules.  MLB TV explained that getting into degrees of player involvement opens a huge can of worms.  Much simpler and clear cut to hold management responsible. I also have to say it's a bit hard for me to believe Cora and Beltran could have gotten the participation of the replay guys without clearance from someone higher in the organization.

I have to say I am OK with this punishment.  It is enough of a punishment that it should deter other organizations from thinking the punishment is just the cost of doing business and worth the risk. Of course that's easy for me to say now since it's not the Giants being punished.  Also, while I certainly don't wish the Dodgers had won the WS in 2017 and 2018, I can empathize with their fans for being upset they lost to one team that was definitely cheating and to another that probably was.

The draft pick penalty also marginally helps the Giants as they move their second round pick up by 1 slot and all subsequent picks up by 2 slots.  That can sometimes make a surprising difference in the quality of player you get.

One more thought, and I did not come up with this, but MLB has an opportunity to improve the replay process by banning the viewing rooms.  Make the manager decide to challenge or not challenge based on what he sees with his own eyes on the field.  That would likely result in fewer challenges limiting them to egregious mistakes.  Of course, teams will still have recording equipment which they could use for nefarious purposes, but this would take away an obvious temptation.

Hot Stove Update: Rangers Go Bargain Hunting; Alex Wood Back To Dodgers

A couple of Hot Stove moves over the weekend could indirectly impact the Giants.  The Rangers signed 3B Todd Frazier to a 1 year/$3.5 M contract with a $5.75 M option for 2021 with a $1.5 M buyout which guarantees him a total of $5 M.  This signing is quite a comedown for a team that had designs on Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but may turn out to be the smarter play in the long run.  Frazier's days of hitting 40 dingers are long gone, but he had a nice bounceback season last year with 21 and a 1.9 fWAR.  If he equals that level of production over the next 2 seasons, he's a major bargain who does not clog up the payroll for years to come.  So, how does this signing affect the Giants?  It might make the Rangers less interested in Nick Castellanos(although it certainly does not preclude signing him).  Also, it's been a long time since the the Giants/Castellanos rumors were even so much as an ember, so it probably has no impact on the Giants at all!

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The other notable signing was Alex Wood re-upping with the Dodgers for 1 year/$4 M with incentives up to $10 M.  Earlier in the offseason, Wood seemed like a nice low-cost bounceback option for Farhan Zaidi to jump on, especially with the common Dodgers connection.  This isn't such a low cost option as $4 M guaranteed seems like a lot for a guy was injured most of last year and whose velocity and performance were down when he wasn't.  On the other hand, $4 M is miniscule in the bigger MLB payroll picture and both the Giants and Dodgers can easily afford it.  Meanwhile, several potential low-cost bounceback options remain on the SP free agent market including Taijuan Walker and Chad Bettis.

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The Giants announced a $50 M infrastructure project to upgrade their training facilities in Arizona which are reported to be currently well below MLB standards.  So, when I read that, the thought occurred to me that $50 M is approximately the gap between the Giants currently projected 2020 payroll and the CBT threshold.  Maybe that's where they decided to allocate that money instead of payroll?  I guess the problem with that theory is infrastructure is generally paid for over time whereas payroll is almost always pay as you go.  At any rate, I am happy to hear the Giants are upgrading their Arizona facilities to be competitive with the rest of the league.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Blaze Jordan

Blaze Jordan 1B, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 215 lbs.

So, the good news about Blaze Jordan is he is the youngest player in this draft cycle.  The not so good news is it seems he maxed out physically at about age 13 when he hit a couple of 500 ft HR's.  This kid has been hitting bombs since age 11.  Light tower power.  Power should be usable as the hit tool seems to work against live pitching(although there are other reports, in MLB Pipeline, of a lot of swings and misses on the showcase circuit last summer).  Already limited to 1B/DH which is a long hill to climb, especially for a RH batter.  His comps range from Paul Goldschmidt to Billy "Country Breakfast" Butler to Luken Baker.  I could see him honoring his commitment to Mississippi St and ending up as a top 5 pick a la Andrew Vaughan or Spencer Torkelson(might be).

Blogger's Note

I"ll be away for the next two days.  Plan to be back Sunday evening.

DrB

Hot Stove Update: Cardinals and Rays Make Blockbuster Trade

The Cardinals and Rays made a yuge trade with the Cardinals dealing from a surplus of OF's to land one of the top pitching prospects in the country and the Rays going into complete win now mode.  Here's the breakdown:

Cardinals get:

LHP Matthew Liberatore.  Liberatore is one of my favorite pitching prospects who I was really high on in the 2018 draft cycle.  He did nothing to diminish my enthusiasm with his performance in Low A last year:  6-2, 3.10, 78.1 IP, 31 BB, 76 K.  It's a bit of an odd trade for the Cardinals who also appear to be in win now mode, but there are rumors out there they may be planning to flip Liberatore in another trade, possibly for Nolan Arenado.

C Edgardo Rodriguez.  The Cardinals are loaded with catching prospects, but you can never have too many, especially when Yadier Molina is nearing the end of his career. Scouts are impressed y ERod's bat, but there is some question if he'll stay behind the plate.

Draft Pick, Competitive Balance Round B.  Cards get a pick back, but give up 30 spots for the Uber-prospect, Liberatore.

Rays get:

OF/1B/DH Jose Martinez.  Martinez can mash from the right side of the plate, but doesn't really have a position.  Rays play in DH league, so that helps, but already have several LH DH options, so is Martinez going to be the short side of a DH platoon?

OF Randy Arozarena.  Promising OF prospect, but the Rays already have 3 staring OF's in Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermeier and Hunter Renfroe.

Draft Pick, Competitive Balance Round A.  Rays move up 30 spots in what is looking like a deep draft.

The trade leaves the Cardinals a bit thin in the OF, but they have a MLB ready prospect in Dylan Carlson who could be ready as soon as Opening Day.  Otherwise, they unloaded some extra players for one of the top pitching prospects in the country who they can either keep or flip in another trade.  From the Rays side, it looks like they got a 4'th OF and the short end of a DH platoon.  That seems like a thin return for one of the top pitching prospects in the country.  The Rays are loaded with pitching prospects though as they still have LHP Brendan McKay, RHP Brent Honeywell, RHP Shane Baz and LHP Shane McClanahan and the Rays are clearly going for it now.

Winner:  Cardinals.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #20 Jake Wong

Jake Wong RHP.  DOB:  9/3/1996.  6'2", 215 lbs.

Low A:  2-1, 1.99, 40.2 IP, 7.52 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, .226 BABIP, GB/FB= 1.56, HR/9= 0.44, HR/FB= 6.3%, xFIP= 3.48.
A+:  3-2, 4.98, 72.1 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, .335 BABIP, GB/FB= 1.08, HR/9= 0.75, HR/FB= 7.1%, xFIP= 4.34.

It's fairly easy to see what went wrong for Jake Wong after his promotion to San Jose.  He went from an unsustainably low BABIP in Augusta to a probably unsustainably high BABIP in SJ.  Add in a higher percentage of fly balls, some of which found their way out of the ballpark, and there you have it.  What's less clear is the why.  Was it just contact luck?  Some analysts say Wong's spin rates aren't all that and he tends to get hit harder than he should based on velocity readings and pitch repertoire.

Wong looks like a future back-end SP.  He's solidly built with a solid pitch arsenal.  He's going to giv up some hits.  His velocity seems down a tick or two from 92-96 pre-draft to 91-94 now.  The comp that comes to mind for me is Brad Hennessey.  Hopefully Jake Wong's FB won't regress all the way down to 88-90 like Hennessey's did.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Nick Blitsko

Nick Blitsko RHP, HS.  6'3", 210 lbs.

I'm working my way down the current Fangraphs draft rankings and we have a newcomer they've slotted at #16.  The reason being is Blitsko just turned 18 and reclassified from the 2021 to 2020 draft(apparently because he's on track to graduate early, although that still does no make him particularly young for the class).  Anyway, he's a big framed righty who features a mid-90's FB that peaks at 97 which he delivers from a high arm slot and a plus hard curveball with high spin rates.  On video, his limbs are long and loose with a low-moderate effort delivery.  There is room to add comfortably add another 10-5 lbs of muscle to the frame. 2-way player in HS but is definitely a pitcher in the pros.

MLB Pipeline slots him in at #9 just behind Jared Kelley and Mick Abel.  I would probably put him closer to #16 because high school pitchers, but he's just one more piece of evidence the Giants will have several potential impact players to choose from when they pick at #13.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Needs Still On Market

If Farhan Zaidi still intends to fulfill his stated offseason goals, his apparent strategy of waiting for the market to come to him may well be working.  I'm going to go through each position of need and list who is still available on the FA market.

RH Corner OF Bat:

Nick Castellanos-  The guy Farhan is rumored to want.  Rumors have waxed and waned but the latest is the Rangers who were rumored to be in hot pursuit with mutual interest are now reported to have never even spoken to him!

Yasiel Puig-  If you ignore the character issues and the enmity between Puig and the Giants fanbase, he may actually be a better fit than Castellanos due to better D and ability to play all 3 OF positions.  Also likely to cost less.

Steven Souza Jr- Significant injury history, but that will make him less expensive.  Solid comeback candidate.

Domingo Santana- I'm guessing Farhan doesn't dig Santana's peripherals.

Marcell Ozuna- Might be the best fit, but I'm guessing the QO is a deal-killer for Farhan.

Farhan has also said 2020 is going to be an evaluation year.  If that's the case, he really doesn't need to add anyone as there is no shortage of options already in house:  Corey Dickerson(L), Steven Duggar(L), Mike Yastrzemski(L), Jaylin Davis(R), Joey Rickard(R), Mauricio Dubon(R), Chris Shaw(L).  The Giants could go full platoon at all 3 OF positions with this group, although Davis, in particular, needs to play every day for an extended period if the Giants really want to find his true potential.  Also, don't forget Heliot Ramos who may be less than a year away.

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LH hitting IF:

Brock Holt- This is the guy who has seemed like the perfect fit since day one of he offseason and he's still out there.  Terrific bat and exceptional position flexibility.

Others:  Scooter Gennett, Brad Miller, Joe Panik, Yangervis Solarte, Neil Walker, Ben Zobrist.  If we aren't insisting on a left-handed bat, there also Brian Dozier and Wilmer Flores.  One guy who we may be overlooking who is already in-house is Drew Robinson who has some serious pop and Holt-like position flexibility.  If you squint hard, you can see a Max Muncy type breakout in Drew Robinson.

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Back up Catcher:

It seems like this has been likely filled with the additions of Tyler Heineman and Chadwick Tromp.  No offense to Aramis Garcia, but I'm rooting for Heineman because I have a fetish for left-handed hitting catcher and Heineman switch-hits.  Q: Does the 26'th roster spot allow for carrying 3 catchers?

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SP:  All of the frontline SP's are off the market, but there are still some intriguing names out there(I don't think Farhan has actually ever said he is in the SP market).

Alex Wood(LHP), Taijuan Walker(RHP), Chad Bettis(RHP), Andrew Cashner(RHP), Danny Salazar(RHP), Drew Smyly(LHP).

One trade I would love to see:  JA Happ and Clarke Schmidt from Yankees for, say, Derek Rodriguez

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Closer:  I suspect Farhan plans to sort this out from internal options but Arodys Vizcaino and Brandon Kintzler are still on the market.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #19 Gregory Santos

Gregory Santos RHP.  DOB:  8/28/1999.  6'2", 190 lbs.

Low A:  1-5, 2.86, 34.2 IP, 6.75 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.94.

Santos was part of the Eduardo Nunez trade coming back from the Red Sox.  This ranking is purely for ceiling and upside as he had a forgettable 2019 marred by injuries.  Santos looks bigger on video than his listed size.  He throws a harrrrd sinker, slider and in improved changeup.  Between injuries, trades and just hitting a development wall, the Giants have not had much success developing international pitchers.  Hopefully Santos can put the injuries behind him and Farhan's army of developers can get him to his ceiling which is frontline SP.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Tanner Burns

Tanner Burns RHP, College(Auburn).  6'0", 215 lbs.

2019:  4-4, 2.82, 79.2 IP, 23 BB, 101 K.

Tanner Burns was a highly regarded HS prospect in the 2017 draft cycle with some analysts ranking him as a first rounder.  Teams apparently had the word he was going to Auburn so he did not get picked until courtesy time in the 37'th round.  He's been solid in 2 seasons with Auburn.  He had some shoulder soreness last year but that does not seem to be a serious issue at this point.

He's maxed out physically so there isn't much upside to a low-mid 90's FB but command of a standard 3-pitch mix gives him a high floor.  There is moderate effort in the delivery which gives him some reliever risk. There are enough higher ceiling college pitchers in this year's draft that I don't think the Giants would consider him at #13 and he's unlikely to fall to #50, their second pick.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #18 Camilo Doval

Camilo Doval RHP.  DOB:  7/4/1997.  6'2", 180 lbs.

A+:  3-5, 3.83, 56.1 IP, 12.78 K/9, 5.43 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.76.

Camilo Doval might need to spend the first week of each season in extended spring training as he has gotten off to terrible starts that last two years then spent the rest of the season whittling his ERA down to a respectable number.  Last year he gave up 7 ER in 1.1 IP over his first two appearances.  Take that out of his season and his ERA is 3.11 the rest of the way.

The Fangraphs Boys gush at his stuff.  He has a very low 3/4 delivery that is almost sidearm which generates a high 90's sinking fastball and a rising cutter.  He also has a horizontal slider that is less developed.  Think Sergio Romo throwing 100 MPH and you can see why Doval gets people excited.  Also per Fangraphs, he has very long arms which generate 7 feet of extension and add 2 MPH to his effective velocity.  He also generates insane spin rates up to 2700 rpm.  So, yeah.  Pretty much the only think holding him back is the occasional blowup appearance which balloons his ERA.  Most of those have occurred in the first weeks of the last 2 seasons, so maybe it's not as big a problem as it seems.

Doval should start 2020 in AA with a solid chance of a midseason callup after he gets past the early season jitters.  He has the stuff to be a dominant closer or his easy, loose-armed delivery may enable him to fill a multi-inning role.

Hot Stove Update: Non-Roster Spring Training Invitations

The Giants announced their non-roster spring training invitations today, 18 in total with some interesting names(players on the 40 man roster have automatic invitations).  Among names from within the organization, top prospects Sean Hjelle and Joey Bart are easily the most recognizable to Giants fans.  Others include RHP Tyler Cyr, RHP Raffi Vizcaino, RHP Sam Wolff, IF Cristhian Adames, IF Zach Green, IF Drew Robinson(signed earlier in the offseason), LHP Sam Moll, RHP Carlos Navas, RHP Rico Garcia, RHP Trey McNutt(signed earlier in the offseason).

Hey! Remember Joey Rickard who was not tendered a contract at the arbitration deadline?  Well, he's back on a minor league/spring training invitation.  Rickard may not get your juices flowing as a fan, but he's actually not a bad hitter when facing LHP's and is not really good enough to squack at being the short end of a platoon. Savvy, under-the-radar move here by Farhan.

Here are some more names you might not be as familiar with:

Jamie Westbrook 2B/OF.  DOB:  6/18/1995.  B-R, T-R.  5'9", 170 lbs.

AA(D'Backs)  .269/.340/.447, 20 2B, 3B, 13 HR, 8.2 BB%, 17.5 K%, 388 PA.
AAA(D'Backs):  .321/.413/.462, 6 2B, 3 HR, 12.6 BB%, 11.8 K%, 127 PA.

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Tyler Heineman C.  DOB:  6/19/1991.  B-S, T-R.  5'11", 205 lbs.

AAA(D'Backs):  .325/407/.525, 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 9.9 BB%, 15.4 K%, 91 PA.
AAA(Marlins):  .341/.397/.622, 12 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 6.6 BB%, 11.5 K%, 182 PA.
MLB(Marlins):  .273/.273/.636, 2B, HR, 12 PA.

I'm intrigued that he's a switch-hitter with nice secondary stats.  Possible sleeper here.

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Chad Tromp(not Trump) C.  DOB:  3/21/1995.  B-R, T-R.  5'9 ", 205 lbs.

AAA(Reds):  .286/.389/.610, 2 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 12.2 BB%, 27.8 K%, 90 PA.

Fangraphs profiled him as a defensive catcher prospect in 2018.  The bat has been inconsistent, but maybe a bit of pop?

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Matt Carasiti RHP.  DOB:  7/23/1991.  6'3", 210 lbs.

AAA(Cubs):  1-1, 2.67, 27 IP, 7.67 K/9, 3.67 BB/9, 1 Save.
AAA(Mariners):  1-0, 4.96, 16.1 IP, 9.37 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 4 Saves.
MLB(Mariners):  0-1, 4.66, 9.2 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.66 BB/9.

Drafted in 2012 by the Rockies. Came up through their system.  Mid-90's FB.  Got a cup of coffee with the Mariners last year and held his own.f

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #17 Melvin Adon

Melvin Adon RHP.  DOB:  6/9/1994.  6'3", 235 lbs.

AA:  2-6, 2.60, 45 IP, 11.80 K/9, 5.20 BB/9, 14 Saves.
AAA:  0-1, 13.94, 10.1 IP, 15.68 K/9, 6.97 BB/9.

Melvin Adon may be one of those guys you keep dreaming on who never realize the dream, but the dream is so good, you don't want to let it go.  Fangraphs calls him the "hardest throwing pitcher in the minors."  He consistently hits triple digits with the FB, but has struggled with command and struggled to find a secondary offering.  The slider emerged last year as a put away pitch which helped the K/9, but the BB/9 also ballooned to dangerous levels.  Can he still pull that all together and make himself and dominating reliever?  2020 is probably a critical year for him.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Heston Kjerstad

Heston Kjerstad OF, College(Arkansas)  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 200 lbs.

2018:  .332/.419/.553, 16 2B, 14 HR, 3 SB, 26 BB, 55 K, 313 PA.
2019:  .329/.404/.574, 13 2B, 3B, 16 HR, 5 SB, 21 BB, 63 K, 292 PA.

Kjerstad put up a similar slash line for Team USA.  Exciting combination of BA and HR power.  Had enough speed out of HS to profile as a possible CF, but currently seems more like a corner bat as his frame has filled out.  Hard to argue with the numbers.  Looking at the swing on video gives me pause as it reminds me of a pre-draft Steven Duggar, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement.  Hard to know where to rank him right now.  I'll say mid-late first round.  Could move up a few notches due to college bat profile with another great offensive season.  Fangraphs has him at #21 while MLB Pipeline has him at #12.

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Someone asked about Blaze Jordan.  Have patience, my friend.  We'll get there.  I'm working down the Fangraphs list.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #16 Dany Jimenez

Dany Jimenez RHP.  DOB:  12/23/1993.  6'3", 190 lbs.

A+:  5-1, 3.55, 25.1 IP, 16.70 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 4 Saves.
AA:  2-2, 1.87, 33.2 IP, 12.30 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 6 Saves.

Rule 5 Picks are another conundrum when is comes to ranking them in a prospect list.  On the one hand, they are guaranteed a shot in spring training.  On the other, if it does not go well, and it almost never does, they have to be offered back to the team they were drafted from who almost always takes them back.  So yeah, they are THIS close to the major leagues but THAT far away!

There are some reasons why we might be a bit more optimistic about Dany Jimenez:  1.  He's got great stuff!  Per Fangraphs, a Mid-90's FB which gets up to 97 with a high spin rate and with a put away breaking ball that comes out of the same overhand release point. Fangraphs rates both pitches as 60's.  2.  He's pitched successfully in AA.  Successful players in AA are generally considered to be less than a year of development away from the majors.  3.  Roster expansion.  26 roster spots makes more room to keep a player that otherwise a team might think they don't have room for.  The only problem is rosters are limited to 13 pitchers and many teams, including the Giants, have gone with just 4 positional bench players in order to carry 13 pitchers, so that 26'th roster spot will mostly benefit positional players hoping for a bench job.  Eric Longerhagen of Fangraphs says, "I think he's pretty likely to stick in a relief role."

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #15 Jaylin Davis

Jaylin Davis OF.  DOB:  7/1/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 190 lbs.

AA(Twins):  .274/.382/.458, 9 2B, 10 HR, 7 SB, 14.3 BB%, 25.5 K%, 251 PA.
AAA(Twins):  .331/.405/.708, 11 2B, 3B, 15 HR, 2 SB, 8.7 BB%, 26.6 K%, 173 PA.
AAA(Giants):  .333/.419/.686, 6 2B, 10 HR, SB, 12.0 BB%, 23.9 K%, 117 PA.
MLB(Giants):  .167/.255/238, HR, SB, 6.4 BB%, 23.4 K%, 47 PA.

Jaylin Davis is the type of conundrum which makes him extremely difficult to place on lists like this. He's a prospect with impressive tools who had a breakout in both BA and HR's while increasing his walk rate earning a late season promotion to the majors which....didn't go so well.  He's now on the Giants 40 man roster and Farhan Zaidi has invoked his name as the type of young player the Giants want to see more of in 2020.

The Fangraphs Boys, who rank him #11 on their list, attribute his breakout to an "open stance and bigger leg kick" which "improved his timing and created a bigger move forward, unlocking previously dormant power."  But they also said he "still has a bottom-hand heavy swing and flat bat path, and thus is unlikely to reach all that power, but he might be a low-end regular guy."  MLB Pipeline doesn't have Davis in their Giants Top 30.

When you look at his athleticism and then those minor league numbers from last year, it's easy to dream on Jaylin Davis.  The K and BB numbers from his small MLB sample are not much different than the minors numbers and the BABIP went from consistently above .300 in the minors to .200 in the majors. He showed flashes in his short MLB stint.  From Farhan's statements, it sounds like he'll get his chance, but one thing we've learned from Farhan so far is he will move on quickly if it does not go well, so Jaylin better be ready to rake out of the gate.