Farhan Zaidi took advantage of the Angels almost desperate desire to unload payroll by taking on Zack Cozart and the $12 M left on his contract also acquire the Angels 2019 first round draft pick(#15 overall) SS Will Wilson. Cozart, you may recall, had a career year for the Reds in 2017 in which he OPS'd .933 on top of excellent defensive metrics. He signed a 3 year/$38 M FA contract with the Angels but has turned in two injury-plagued, disappointing seasons since. The Giants take on all of the 1 yr/$12 M left on his contract. Cozart is a decent candidate for a bounceback year but is also an even bet or better to not still be on the Giants roster come Opening Day because he is not the guy the Giants wanted. His contract was the price they paid for Will Wilson.
Wilson was the Angels first round draft pick just this year, #15 overall. According to Farhan, the Giants seriously considered drafting him #10 overall instead of Hunter Bishop. Wilson slashed .339/.429/.665 with 16 HR his junior season at NC State. That backed up a 15 HR sophomore campaign. After the draft, he was assigned to Orem in the Pioneer League, an advanced rookie league where he put up a line of .275/.328/.439 with 5 HR in 204 PA. Hard to make too much out of that as you would expect a first round college draftee to be placed at a higher level and the Pioneer League is notoriously hitter-friendly. Wilson is not a fast runner, but scouting reports say he is quick enough to play SS. The Giants say they will play him at both SS and 2B wherever he is assigned in 2020. So wow! Very nice pickup by Zaidi who is starting to impress me just a little bit here. When you figure Wilson's signing bonus of a little over $3 M was paid by the Angels, we can subtract that from the cost of taking on Cozart's contract for a net cost of $9 M. The Giants will eventually send back a PTBNL or cash considerations to complete the trade. And in another affirmation of the current strength of the Giants farm system, Wilson was the Angels 4'th ranked prospect by both MLB and Fangraphs. He's now listed as #7 in the Giants system.
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The Giants also signed RHP Kevin Gausman to a 1 yr/$9 M FA contract. Gausman has always had premium stuff, but has has extremely inconsistent results on the field. He's a guy who almost perennially seems to be on the verge of a breakout, but never quite seems to get there. At age 29, he still seems to be a decent bet for a breakout. He's pitched in some lousy pitching environments with the Orioles, Braves and Reds so maybe Oracle Park what the doctor ordered for his pitching career?
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The Giants are still rumored to be in on OF Nick Castellanos and there is come crazy talk of taking on David Price's contract to get Andrew Benintendi. Stay tuned for Day 3 of the Winter Meetings.
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I have to be honest, I'm not a huge fan of this deal for a number of reasons. Maybe someone can enlighten me on why it makes sense but from where I'm sitting this looks like a huge gamble and a clear sign that this team will not be competing this year. Yes, I know, they were never going to compete this year but it also means they just invested in a lottery ticket that won't cash in at best for 3 more years.
ReplyDeleteBetween Cozart and Gausman they just invested 22 million into 2 players who will not help this team win in 2019 or beyond (I get that Will Wilson was the reason for Cozart but will explain my doubts about that shortly). That was 22 million that could have gone towards resigning MadBum or another helpful piece that could make this team worth watching this year and in years to come. Gausman is clearly going to be used as a trade chip before the deadline so essentially they just invested 22 million in a few prospects.
Will Wilson was the #4 prospect in the Angels system which is the equivalent of what exactly? Their system is horrible so being number 4 after batting .275 with 5 homers coming out of college in a hitter friendly low A division is worth 13 million? If he were drafted out of high school maybe that would be an acceptable year but out of college and putting up those numbers doesn't exactly inspire me to run around my neighborhood high fiving everyone.
So we have more bad contracts and more mid level prospects now but is anyone overly confident that Farmhand actually has any idea how to evaluate talent enough to say with confidence that Wilson is for sure a guarantee to be an impact player? It is one thing when he has gone and gotten scrap heap players for nothing like Yaz and Dick but 13 million for a guy that at best has a 50/50 chance of making it to the major leagues? Gary Brown and Phil Bickford had more promising first years in the minors and look where they ended up. How can you justify spending 13 million on a guy who doesn't have any plus tools and couldn't even excel at a low level A ball division that was hitter friendly!
Wilson is #10 on the Giants prospect list (MLB) -- with the same overall scouting grade as everyone below Bishop at #4.
DeleteAlso no one below Bishop has a higher power rating except Shaw.
For a MI, he holds a lot of promise for the Giants with Luciano, Dubon, and himself "up the middle."
I'd give Farhan A+ for this investment in the future.
This trade will move the Giants system up in its ranking.
This is definitely a "In Farhan we trust" move and the scary part is we may not know how big of a success or failure he is for another 3 years. Hunter Bishop is another that I am not sold on entirely and we will need to wait and see how he turns out as well. This is the way it is with all prospects obviously but what happens when we get to 2022 and none of these guys actually pan out?
DeleteEveryone talks about how Bobby and Brian set this franchise back several years with the big contracts they gave out to the core players but how many years could poor drafting and investing in mediocre prospects set us back? Sure you can fire Farhan and his entire team after 2022 if that is the case but that just means 3 more years of poor baseball followed by likely another 3-4 year rebuilding period.
What analytics are Farhan and Harris looking at that have convinced them that Will Wilson is worth a 13 million dollar investment? It can't be his stats from his first year of pro ball! You can't just go by where he was drafted as we all know GM's make plenty of mistakes in the first round with somewhere around a 30% success rate (player becomes a contributor at the big league level) when drafting in the mid first round. Take into account that the Angels drafted him and it gets even more sketchy based on their track record. Take his stats from his first year plus his scouting report of having below average speed and no "plus" tools and you have a player who likely will not stick at SS and who's impact could be at best utility infielder for 13 million! Time will tell but this is by no means a slam dunk.
It's simple finance. They bought a first round pick for $12M. It's a onte time cost with an eye on future dividends. In the future if Wilson is a starter he'll be worth a lot more than $12M, but they'll be paying him much less. And since he'll be paid cheaply, they can spend more at other spots to help the next Giants contending team.
DeleteIn the present the $12M doesn't move the needle one way or the other. Signing MadBum or not has zero to do with the $12M for 2019. It has everything to do with how much he wants in future years and how long that commitment goes.
In terms of why they like Wilson. They probably liked him in the draft and aren't that worried about his first 200 pro AB's.
Yankees have 11 MLB Top Prospects rated 50 and above including 5 pitchers and 4 OFers.
ReplyDeleteThey want to unload J. A. Happ's $17 mill for 2 years -- that would be worth at least a couple high picks, no?
As of today, NYY is in the highest tax penalty category subjecting them to a 42.5 percent overage tax for outspending the threshold by $40MM or more.