Scouting the 2020 Draft: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong OF.  HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 175 lbs.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the latest product from sports factory Harvard Westlake HS in CA.  Another B-L, T-L speedy OF from the current HS class.  He is a true speedster with a 6.5 60 yd dash time.  He also has hit 93 MPH on OF throws.  On video, he's on the thin side, but currently wiry strong with room to fill out his frame in a good way.  On top of those tools, he is considered by most scouts to be the most polished HS player in this draft class.  Fangraphs capsule summary:  "....plus runner with good baseball instincts and contact skills to go with sneaky power and a strong track record of hitting."  Like Robert Hassell, who has very similar tools and skills, Pete is committed to Vanderbilt which may make him tough to sign.

*********************************************************************************

We've covered 4 HS OF's in the top 10 of Fangraphs current 2020 draft board.  Trying to separate them or even rank them in any particular order is a challenge. All four bat left-handed and 3 of the 4 also throw left-handed(Hendrick, Hassell, Crow-Armstrong) which means they can only play 1B and OF.   Fangraphs has Austin Hendrick highest at #6.  I have him lowest of the four because to me his legs look like more of a corner profile which puts a lot of pressure on the bat and everybody seems to agree that his swing, while promising, needs a lot of work.  To me, Zac Veen has the highest ceiling due to his height and frame and it's not really close.  On the other hand, tall hitters tend to have holes in their swings so there is bust potential here.  Hassell and Crow-Armstrong are the most polished and have the best chance to stay in CF so probably have the highest floors, but they are both committed to Vandy which makes them questionable for signing for even first round money.

As for how this group ranks in the overall list, remember statistically the best ROI in the draft comes from college players, particularly hitters, so don't be surprised if more college players jump in front if the HS peloton which could make for some interesting and tough choices for Giants scouts when they  draft at #13.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
6.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
7.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
8.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
9.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
10. Austin Hendrick OF, HS.

Hot Stove Update: Happy Thanksgiving for Drew Pomeranz

The Hot Stove was humming on Thanksgiving Eve.  Drew Pomeranz and his family will have a whole of $$$$ to be thankful for tomorrow after he signed a 4 year, yes you read that right, 4 year/$34 M free agent contract with the San Diego Padres.  Gulp!  OK, I suggested awhile back that Drew Pomeranz was quietly the most dominating reliever in MLB after his trade to the Brewers.  I got that from a Fangraphs article.  Anyone who doubts the power of Fangraphs in MLB just needs to look at the contract Drew Pomeranz just signed.  Goes to show how an "undervalued" player can suddenly become overvalued if enough people become convinced of their undervalue and start a bidding war and how once you name a sleeper or undervalued player, you just took away their sleeper /undervalue status.

OK yeah, it was a good idea while it lasted and the Giants have a lot of money to spend, but even I would never advocate for giving that kind of contract to Drew Pomeranz.  So, wish him, but not the Padres the best.  Giants fans can be thankful they got Mauricio Dubon out of the whole Drew Pomeranz experience.  Happy Thanksgiving!

*********************************************************************************

The Padres also made a significant trade with the Brewers sending SS/2B Luis Urias and LHP Eric Lauer to Beertown for OF Trent Grisham and RHP Zach Davies.  Not sure what to make of this trade.  Davies and Lauer are soft-tossing innings-eater types without exciting peripheral stats.  Davies has 2 years of arbitration left while Lauer is still pre-arbitration.  I will say Zach Davies has turned in sub-4.00 ERA's in 3 of 4 seasons while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park.  He's a nice pitcher for the back-end of your fantasy pitching staff for W's and ERA although he's not going to help you much with K's.

Luis Urias has been a highly touted Padres prospect, but his AAA numbers coming out of El Paso are suspect and he hasn't found traction at the MLB level.  Grisham was a pop-up prospect last year who has a so-so run in the second half for the BrewCrew before an unfortunate fielding gaffe ruined his and the Brewers postseason.  The Padres apparently want Grisham to be a platoon partner with Manuel Margot in CF.  The Brewers apparently want Urias to challenge Orlando Arcia at SS where it is unclear he is a significant upgrade.

IDK, it seems like there is less here than meets the eye.  I'll call it a wash with maybe a slight edge to the BrewCrew.

*********************************************************************************

In a move that should get the attention of the commissioner and the MLBPA, the Orioles put IF/UT Jonathan Villar on Release Waivers.  Villar had a tremendous season last year putting up and fWAR of 4.0 with 24 HR's and 40, that's right, 40 SB's.  How is that not worth an estimated arbitration value of $10 M?  Any team claiming Villar will be on the hook for arbitration and the O's were already apparently unsuccessful in trading him.  If he goes unclaimed he becomes a FA where he will almost certainly get more total $$ but possibly at a lower AAV.  Yo Farhan!  I'm still waiting to be impressed.  You get Villar and I will be impressed!

*********************************************************************************

RHP Kyle Gibson signed a FA contract with the Rangers for 3 years/$30 M.  This seems about right for an innings eater SP who pitches to contact with a sinker which is exactly what the whole launch angle thing was designed to counteract.  Despite his high GB rates he gives up a lot of HR's.  Not going to get much help from his home crib on that.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Cole Wilcox

Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).  6'5", 220 lbs.

2019:  3-2, 4.07, 59.2 IP, 9.65 K/9, 5.73 BB/9.
2019(CCL):  0-1, 6.75, 8 IP, 10 K, 6 BB.

Cole Wilcox was Fangraphs #14 ranked draft prospect out of HS in the 2018 draft cycle.  He eschewed first round money to attend college at Georgia and will be a draft eligible sophomore in 2020.  He may have the highest ceiling in the entire draft, not because he has any physical projection left, but he has room to harness the tremendous physicality he already possesses.  Ideal pitcher's frame, tall, big-boned, muscular.  FB sits in the high 90's with heavy sink.  Two good secondary pitches.  Struggled a bit with control/command as a freshman especially early on(12 ER in first 12.1 IP).  If he can get that under control, he should break out in his sophomore campaign and rise as high as #1 overall on draft boards.  If he doesn't, he may decide to stay in school and hope for better results next year.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1. Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
6.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
7.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
8.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
9.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.

Hot Stove Update: Steven Vogt Won't Be Back

Steven Vogt signed a free agent contract with the D'Backs, 1 year guaranteed at $3 M with a vesting option for a second year at another $4 M.  It was apparently the vesting option that sealed the deal and trumped the Giants offer as Vogt said the D'Backs deal offered his family more stability.  I get not  joining a bidding war for a reserve catcher, but Vogt is the perfect fit in SF, at least until Joey Bart is ready.  The left-handed bat and ability to fill in out in LF is especially valuable and that does not count his sunny disposition and positive clubhouse presence which this team seems to have too little of.  Color me disappointed.  Is it possible Farhan thinks he can get by with Aramis Garcia until Bart is ready, which may be by midseason?  If not, Farhan needs to get the juices flowing as a weak catching market is drying up fast.

*********************************************************************************

Mariners signed RHP Kendall Graveman to a 1 year/$1.5 M deal with a $3.5 M club option for 2021 with a $500 K buyout, so he's guaranteed to get $2 M.  Graveman was a reliable innings either for the A's for several years but missed most of 2018 and 2019 to TJ surgery.  What may have interested the Mariners is 8 K's and 1 BB in 6 IP at AAA at the end of 2019.  It's a tiny sample size, but the dominance is intriguing.  Sometimes guys come back from TJ at a higher level.   Is Graveman one of those?  This seems like a Farhan type deal but maybe he thinks he can get someone like that on a minor league deal?

*********************************************************************************

A troubling story about former Giants RHP Sam Dyson.  Remember Snuckles The Cat who belonged to Dyson and his GF?  Well, apparently Dyson and Snuckles were not as bonded as they were making out and apparently there was trouble between Dyson and the GF.  She posted a couple of lengthy pieces on social media alleging that Sam had thrown Snuckles cat home with the cat inside and destroyed it.  Fortunately, Snuckles and the GF seem to be physically OK. Although she did not name Sam as the assailant, it's reportedly been confirmed and the fallout is undoubtedly just starting.

Guys!  If you are feeling that frustrated, seek professional counseling and if it is that bad, just get out of the relationship.  There is no excuse for acting out anger in that way and in this age of social media you can be almost assured your name is going to go public in a very devastating way.

Down on the Farm: Fangraphs Posts Giants Top Prospects

Fangraphs has their Giants Top Prospects list up.  Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longerhagen do their usual excellent job and show that they do their homework.  It's extremely difficult to have that much in-depth knowledge of one farm system let alone 30.  I am not going to post their list here or criticize it.  My list might be slightly different, but as always, I believe the exact order is not what's important. If you want to know what the Giants have in their farm system, read the summaries.  I'll just say, they have absolute mancrushes on Marco Luciano and any system that has Alexander Canario at #8, Seth Corry at #11 and Jairo Pomares at #15 is a pretty darn good system.  It's nice to be bullish on the Giants future for a change, although I have always maintained their system was underrated.

Fangraphs has another nice article up about Seth Corry and how he worked with Augusta Pitching Coach Clay Rapada to polish up his game and turn his raw stuff into pitchablity.  Check these articles out!

Hot Stove Update: Braves Sign Travis d'Arnaud

In a move highlighting how destitute the catching market is, the Braves signed Travis d'Arnaud to a 2 year/$16 m contract split evenly between the two years.  d'Arnaud is one of those players who constantly seems to be on the verge of a breakout season but never quite gets there, mostly due to a long series of injuries.  In 7 MLB seasons, his top 4 in games played are 112, 108, 103(2019) and 75. In that time, he's averaged 21 HR's/600 PA and that's where his appeal lies.  If you project is season stats, he should be good for about 20-25 dingers over a full season but alas, between injuries and slumps, he's never gotten there.  Don't forget he was DFA'd by the Mets and again by the Dodgers in May 2019.  He enjoyed one of his pretty good runs after signing on the the Rays which is what gave him the value for this contract. Obviously, the key to this contract is for him to stay healthy.  If he can, it's a good deal for the Braves.  If not, they may be stuck with Tyler Flowers as their only MLB quality catcher.  Steven Vogt is older and has his own injury history, but his left-handed bat would complement Flowers and play well in the home ballpark.

*********************************************************************************

The Yankees released Jacoby Ellsbury and do not intend to pay him the remaining $26 M on his contract.  The Yanks assert that Ellsbury had surgery by an unapproved physician violating the terms of his contract.  I would think this move sets up a showdown with a the MLBPA.

*********************************************************************************

Apparently what hit it off between Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris in the interview process was Harris really digs roster turnover, which is......well....inneresting.  Again, while the roster churning from last year turned up a couple of possible keepers in YtY and Mauricio Dubon, it remains far from clear that this is an effective way to build a competitive roster and there is an opportunity cost in having to live with a lot of PA's by the likes of Conner Joe and Michael Reed before you unearth a possible keeper.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Robert Hassell

Robert Hassell OF, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 195 lbs.

Lots of tools here with a scouts reporting plus hit with power potential.  6.54 60 yd dash time is good enough to stick in CF.  Lefty arm that has reached 91 MPH off the mound and 89 from the OF.  On video he looks long and lean, wiry strong with ample room to add muscle and get stronger.  Smooth swing.

He's from Tennessee, committed to Vanderbilt and has a chance to play 2 ways if he goes to college.   He may be a challenge to sign.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
5.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
6.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
7.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
8.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.

Hot Stove Update: Extensions for Jose Abreu and Evan White

There were no trades or free agent signings to report today, but there were a couple of interesting contract extensions, interesting for different reasons.

Jose Abreu accepted his Qualifying offer.  A 1 year contract, even at the QO rate of $18 M, is about as low risk as you can get for the club, so you would figure the White Sox would have no interest in signing an extension that add significant risk, right?  Well, apparently wrong!  Today, the ChiSox signed Abreu to a 3 yr/$50 M contract which essentially the same AAV but for 3 years by which time Abreu will be 35 years old.  Abreu had a heckuva year at the plate in 2019, but is a liability in the field and on the basepaths so his fWAR was just 1.9.  By that measure this does not look like a good deal for the Chisox but in fairness, his bWAR of 2.4 feels closer to his true value.  His value may actually go up if he DH's, since that would eliminate the negative pull of his D.  On top of that, he is reportedly a major clubhouse leader, especially for the young fellow Cubans, Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert.  From that perspective, this looks like a win-win for both player and team.

You may remember Evan White from our Scouting the 2017 Draft series.  He's the B-R, T-L first baseman from Kentucky who some scouts thought was athletic enough to play CF.  He was drafted in the first round by the Mariners, #17 overall, so got a signing bonus of $3.125 M.  White spent his entire 2019 season in AA where he put up a line of .294/.350/.488 with 18 HR.  He has played exclusively 1B where he has a reputation of being an elite fielder.  White has not played above AA and still has a year to go before he would have to be added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.  So this is very early for him to be signing a longterm contract. In fact, I saw one report that he is the first AA player ever signed to a long term extension.  The basic contract is for 6 years/$24 M.  If he makes the 25 man active roster early in 2020, that buys out all of his pre-arbitration years.  Now we get to the controversial part:  The contract calls for 3 team options which are extremely team friendly which extends the contract to 9 years/$55 M if all options are exercised.

There are opinions out there that the Mariners are taking advantage of a young player's desire for financial security.  I would point out that this is far from risk-free for the Mariners and it does give White financial security.  OK, maybe when he is 60 yo, $24 M won't be worth what it is now and maybe the $24 M won't last a lifetime, but it sure is a heckuva start!  If he plays well, then that $24 M becomes $55 M, maybe not what he would make in those 3 years from free agency, but still a very nice sendoff to the rest of his life.  He'll be 33 by the end of the 9 years, so again if he's good he will have the opportunity to add to that total.  In the non-zero chance he's a complete bust, he's still got that $24 M of financial security.

Another player benefit here is it not only preempts potential service time manipulation by the team, it incentivizes the team to get him to the majors and keep him there as soon as possible, possibly as early as Opening Day 2020!

Again, it's a win-win for both the player and team.  Personally I would like to see more of these contracts which give young players financial security at a time they are still at significant risk of never cashing in on arbitration let alone free agency.  More of these types of contracts are good for players, teams and fans.

Hot Stove Update: Chisox Nab Grandal

The White Sox served notice that they are seriously entering a Ready-To-Win phase of their rebuild with the signing of free agent C Yasmani Grandal for 4 years/$73 M.  Grandal fills a yawning chasm in the 'Sox lineup as they have Abreu back at 1B on an accepted QO, Madrigal coming up at 2B, Moncada at 3B, Tim Anderson at SS with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert in the OF.  With the addition of Grandal, they can now concentrate on adding pitching during the rest of the Hot Stove season.  Grandal is 30 yo and has a history of surgery on a knee and shoulder, but has been healthy the last 2 seasons.  His lowest fWAR over the past 5 seasons is 4.1.  If he continues to produce at that level for even half of this contract, it will be money well spend by the Chisox.   I'm giving the signing a grade of A.  The signing does not impact the Giants who are not in the market for a frontline C.

*********************************************************************************

The Giants announced a change in the ownership heirarchy.  Greg Johnson was named "Control Person" which means he is the person in the ownership group who is accountable to MLB.  Johnson is the son of the Giants largest shareholder, Charles Johnson.  Interim Control Person, Rob Dean, will now have the title of Vice Chairman.  So does that mean Greg Johnson is the Chairman, or just the Control Person?  I'm confused!  Larry Baer apparently stays on as President and CEO while Farhan Zaidi retains the title of President of Baseball Operations.  Both Baer and Zaidi will reportedly report to Johnson and Dean, which seems like a demotion for Baer, but the whole setup is a bit confusing, at least for me.  Again, just my very uninformed opinion, but this looks like the Big Money members of the owership group are taking a much more active role in decisionmaking.  In the past, they have been content to stay in the background and let the less rich fanboys, Baer and Peter Magowan, run the team.  It also makes you wonder if there aren't financial stressors in the background of the organization we don't know about.

*********************************************************************************

Not a major surprise, but the Giants made no changes to their 40 man roster at the deadline to protect prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.  Contrary to some reports, RHP Gregory Santos and RHP Camilo Doval are not eligible.  Looking over the list of Giants eligibles, I will be moderately surprised if any are lost in the draft.  As it currently stands, the Giants won't be active in the draft as their 40-man roster is full.  What I don't know is if they can open a spot or two by releasing or trading players between now and the draft.

*********************************************************************************

A couple of quotes from Farhan Zaidi will make the Tanksters happy.  In regards to a question about whether he will tender a contract to Kevin Pillar, "I think being in the transition phase that we're at, and having some younger outfielders we may look to create some playing time for--that's a little bit of the dynamic."  "And again, I think the juncture that we're in as an organization, we're gonna have to view every baseball decision we make as a tradeoff between production and development, and the present and the future."  My translation is "We may be $90 M under the CBT threshold, but don't expect us to spend any of that this winter."  Oh, and Pillar is not going to be tendered a contract.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Zac Veen

Zac Veen OF, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 180 lbs.

Tall and lanky but well proportioned with athletic movements and a smooth swing.  Strong arm.  Clocked at just 83 MPH off the mound but 92 from the OF.  I was not able to find a 60 yd dash time, but Fangraphs capsule scouting report calls him a "protoype CF prospect" so presumably he has some pretty serious speed.  The comp that immediately came to my mind when seeing him on video is Christian Yelich.  A lot of players with his build look awkward in the batter's box, but he looks very comfortable with a slightly open stance which helps him avoid getting tied up on the inside.  Claim to fame in competition is a a dinger off a 96 MPH FB from 2019 first rounder Matthew Allan. When you are scouting HS players, it's all about the ceiling and this kid's is as high as any.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
5.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
6.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
7.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.

Fantasy Focus: First Base

Fantasy baseball is all about offense.  It does not give a darn about defensive metrics or WAR.  First base is an offensive position which makes it rightfully a position of intense interest to fantasy players.  Most fantasy baseball formats have Utility roster spots which can be filled with players from any position.  First basemen tend to make great fantasy utility players.  All this means you don't want to lose track of even bottom third ranked first basemen who you may want to draft for one of your utility spots.  We're going to take a slightly different look here and give out some awards:

Top Performer(tie):

Peter Alonso-  .260/.358/.583, 53 HR, 103 R, 120 RBI, SB.
Freddie Freeman- .281/.397/.549, 38 HR, 113 R, 121 RBI, 6 SB.

Breakout Performer(other than Peter Alonso who had one of the great breakouts of all time):

Josh Bell- .277/.367/.569, 37 HR, 94 R, 116 RBI.
Christian Walker(runner-up)- .259/.348/.476, 29 HR, 86 R, 73 RBI, 8 SB.

Bounceback Performer:

Carlos Santana- .281/.397/.515, 34 HR, 110 R, 93 RBI.

Proved He Was No Fluke:

Max Muncy- .251/.374/.515, 35 HR, 101 R, 98 RBI.

Swiss Army Knife(eligible at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF):

Danny Santana- .283/.324/.534, 28 HR, 81 R, 81 RBI, 21 SB.

OBP League Studs:

Rhys Hoskins- .226/.364/.454, 29 HR, 86 R, 85 RBI, 2 SB.
Daniel Vogelbach- .208/.341/.439, 30 HR, 73 R, 76 RBI.

2020 Breakout Candidate:  I know it's a long shot, but I'm going to go with Brandon Belt here.  Maybe, just maybe, moving Triples Alley in by 11 ft AND a new manager who might be able to convince him to change his swing will finally unlock Brandon Belt's inner MVP.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Austin Hendrick

Austin Hendrick OF, HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 195 lbs.

Let's talk about the tools first.  Elite bat speed with both current and future power.  Runs the 60 in 6.80 secs.  Not elite fast, but fast enough to be a borderline CF prospect.  Lower half looks a bit thick to me on videos. Throws 89 off the mound and 93 from the OF.  With the arm and borderline speed, he projects as a RF.  Swing has been compared to Cody Bellinger, but probably needs some re-tooling.  Currently holds the bat high with a slight hitch at the start of the swing.  Fairly long stride with some length to the swing.  Extremely high ceiling with some bust potential due to swing mechanics.  My comp is more Jay Bruce.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
5.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
6.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.

Fantasy Focus: Catcher

It's alway tough to know how to handle the catcher position in fantasy baseball.  It's a position of scarcity for offensive production to begin with.  Most catchers are not able to get in the squat for 150 games which limits counting stats prevalent in most fantasy baseball leagues.  This was true in 2019 when just 4 catchers accumulated as many as 500 PA's.

JT Realmuto:  .275/.328/.493, 25 HR, 92 R, 83 RBI, 9 SB, 593 PA.
Yasmani Grandal:  .246/.380/.468, 28 HR, 79 R, 77 RBI, 5 SB, 632 PA.
Christian Vazquez:  .276/.320/.477, 23 HR, 66 R, 72 RBI, 4 SB, 521 PA.
Wilson Ramos:  .288/.351/.416, 14 HR, 52 R, 73 RBI, SB, 523 PA.

Out of those 4, Realmuto and Grandal are worth investing a relatively high pick on, but once you get past them, it's probably best to just wait until the end of the draft and pick up whoever is still available.    It's not that hard to find a catcher who will give you 15-20 HR's down at the end of your draft.  I look for someone who will give me that and not ruin BA or OBP depending on what your league settings are.  The two best dinger producers were Gary Sanchez who hit 34 for the Yankees and Mitch Garver of the Twins who had a huge breakout with 31 in just 359 PA.

One way to dramatically increase your offensive production from the catcher position if you have the time and patience is to draft two catchers from one team, known as handcuffing.  The downside to this strategy is the extra catcher takes up a roster spot which could be used on a pitcher to increase Wins and K's and you have to take the time to check lineups daily so you know which catcher to start that day, a time investment most fantasy baseball players probably don't have.

The top catching pair in MLB last year was the aforementioned Mitch Garver and Jason Castro of the Twins who combined for 44 HR's 109 R and 97 RBI's.  Another tandem I was not aware of before I researched this post came from the Mariners where Omar Narvaez and Tom Murphy(remember him?) combined to hit 40 HR's, 95 R and 95 RBI's.    Other catching pairs of note include Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini of the Cubs with 35 combined HR's, Kurt Suzuki and Yan 
Gomes of the Nationals(29), Carson Kelly and Alex Avila of the D'Backs(27).  Buster Posey and Steven Vogt were not a half-bad pair last year with 17 combined HR's with 73 R and 78 RBI.

Another barrier to implementing this strategy from a fantasy baseball standpoint is positional flexibility which may put both players on the field at the same time and dilute their combined output.

*********************************************************************************

Addendum:

I appreciate comments but wish folks would disagree with what I actually write and not some straw man caricature of it:

1.  I think I said I generally wait until the end of the draft to take my catcher and can generally find a 15-20 HR guy who doesn't hurt me in BA/OBP.

2.  I don't think this is what the commenter was advocating, but I don't recommend leaving the C position open.  When most of your categories are counting stats, you have to roster someone with C eligibility.  In most formats, you don't get an extra bench player if you leave the C position open.

3.  I also made the effort to point out the opportunity cost of rostering 2 catchers including the cost of an extra SP.  I also pointed out the strategy won't work at all if you do not have the time to check posted lineups daily so you know which catcher to start.

4.  If you can keep up with who's starting on a daily basis, I still think it's worth considering handcuffing if the right situation presents itself.  If you can get 40 HR', 95 R and 95 RBI out of the Catcher position by rostering both Narvaez and Murph, I think you have to at least consider it.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Jared Kelley

Jared Kelly RHP, HS.  6'2", 200 lbs.

Every year, the draft seems to feature at least one hard throwing high school pitcher from Texas.  This year's model is Jared Kelley.  His frame is noticeably more stout than Mike Abel's which many analysts interpret as having less upside.  On the other hand, how much more upside to you need if you can hit 99 MPH on the radar gun now?  Kelley's best secondary pitch is changeup which comes out of the same slot as the FB.  He has a curveball, but it is less of an out pitch right now than the changeup.  I like pitchers with sturdier frames.  I believe they have lower injury risk although I don't have numbers to back that up.  I think you could almost flip a coin between Abel and Kelley but I might prefer the kid with the sturdier frame despite possibly more limited upside.  Both HS pitchers are likely to move down boards as the draft cycle progresses while less risky college pitchers move up.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
5.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.

Even More Thoughts on Brandon Belt

Someone commented that Brandon Belt needs to bunt against the shift more.  That commenter echoes what many others in the Giants fanbase would like to see.  I think bunting against the shift has it's place, but you do have to realize it's exactly what opposing teams want him to do.  If anybody thinks Gabe Kapler is going to encourage Belt to bunt more, I have news for you!  Go look up video that is quite easy to find of Kapler taunting Belt from the Phillies dugout after an attempted bunt.  Kapler is not just calling out schoolyard names.  He's calling out a whole rationale for why Belt shouldn't be bunting.....at all!  "Come on!  You are the cleanup hitter and the top home run threat in the lineup and you're bunting?  LOL!"  ....or something to that effect.

So, folks.  Go ahead and keep calling for Brandon Belt to be traded or released and keep on calling for him to bunt against the shift more.  Neither one is going to happen with Gabe Kapler as the Manager.

More Thoughts On Brandon Belt

Seems like I have thoughts to post on Brandon Belt every few months.  Well, here we go again.  Coming off the weakest season of his career, many fans have written him off and assume he's on Farhan Zaidi's chopping block, a matter of time until he's traded to make room for.....Buster Posey moving to first base full time?  Yeah, probably not!

I'm going to put this as succinctly as possible here:  Brandon Belt is close to a lock to start the 2020 season as the Giants starting first baseman.  Why do I say this?  Well, there is the usual he's in the middle of a big contract.  He has a partial no-trade clause which he is likely to be not inclined to waive.  There are not that many teams out there who would want him.   But those are not the reasons why I think he isn't going anywhere.  As reported by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, between defending his actions when he was employed by the Dodgers and his performance as manager of the Phillies, Gabe Kapler got into some of his thoughts about how to get more out of the Giants roster.  Whose name came up first and whose name did he spend the bulk of the discussion on?  That's right, none other than Brandon Belt.  I did not find his thoughts to be particularly enlightening, but here's the key quote in regard to Belt:

"I've thought a lot about Brandon Belt and specifically what he brings....how impressive it is to watch him take an at-bat, independent of the outcome of the at-bat.  He tends to look over pitches and make really good swing-or-don't-swing decisions......I know the power has dropped off a little bit, but taking the things that he does very, very well and highlighting some of those things might lead to some more of that power production."

Now I ask you, does that sound like a manager who is going to lobby Farhan to get rid of Brandon Belt at any cost?  No, no it does not!  While the statement fails to shed much, if any, light on how Gabe is going to unlock Brandon Belt's power, it sure sounds like Brandon Belt has a big fan in the manager's office, which is why I think he is a near-lock to start 2020 as the Giants starting first baseman.

Hot Stove Update: Will Smith Signs with Braves

Not only did Will Smith not accept the Giants Qualifying Offer, he signed with another team all in one day.  Let's see, if you have a choice between $39 M of guaranteed money and $18 M, it's probably a smart decision to take the larger number, even if it is spread out over 3 seasons.  Add in Smith's stated desire to win a ring and that he is from Georgia and grew up rooting for the Braves and you can see the Giants really didn't stand a chance.  Will Smith was not going to sign with the Giants equal money, so it's probably a moot issue whether the Giants were willing to go beyond the QO or not.

Smith was the top Closer on the market while the contract is fairly average for an established Closer, so it's a good deal for the Braves who may be only a Closer away from taking the next step in the postseason.  On the other hand, multiyear deals for Closers have tended to not age well for teams that sign them.

So, where does this leave the Giants?  They will have to pay a similar amount for a lesser established Closer or they will have to find one though The Churn.  I bet you can't guess which route Farhan Zaidi is planning to take.....or maybe you can.  The latter is probably the smarter way to go.  Will Smith was an inexpensive setup man before he became an inexpensive league leading Closer.  The Giants won 3 rings with low cost Closers.  The last two free agent Closers the Giants signed were Armando Benitez and Mark Melancon.  I think I've made my point.  I am not among those who say the Giants don't need a Closer because they are not going to contend anyway.  I think they can contend, at least for a Wild Card spot and they need a good Closer to do that.  It's just not irrational to think they are as likely to find that Closer in The Churn for a fraction of the price which frees them to allocate that $18 M somewhere else.  Which brings us to.......

*********************************************************************************

Farhan Zaidi talked about his Hot Stove goals with the press.  Quotes are taken from a MLBTR writeup.  "We're going to be open to anything and see what the market yields." "We're still in a mode where we want to compete next year.  We want to play meaningful baseball deep into the season....but we want to do it in a way that creates flexibility for us....."  Well, that's pretty close to what Brian Sabean said around this time of year for the past 20 years, so nothing earthshaking there.

More specifically, Farhan said he is looking for a left-handed hitting infielder with multi-position flexibility, a back up catcher and extra pitching.  Notice there is nothing about re-signing Madison Bumgarner or another frontline SP in there or a mashing corner outfielder.  I hope you had your heart set on Eric Sogard, Steven Vogt and Alex Wood.  That's all well and good, but if payroll is what Farhan was referring to with numerous references to "flexibility", I'm not sure how much more flexible you can get when you are $90 M under the CBT threshold and you have multiple large contracts coming off the books over the next 2 seasons.  So yeah, I'm not doing handsprings over Farhan and his Hot Stove goals.

*********************************************************************************

Speaking of Madison Bumgarner, as expected, Bummy did not accept the Giants QO and is now a free agent on the open market.  Given Farhan's goals statements which pointedly did not include resigning Bummy and Bummy saying the Giants choice of managers would impact his decision, I'm not expecting him to be a Giant next season.

*********************************************************************************

RHP Jake Odorizzi accepted the Twins Qualifying offer.

Thoughts on Gabe Kapler

As expected, the Giants announced the hiring of a new Manager shortly on the heels of hiring a new GM.  Their choice of Gabe Kapler has already drawn strong reactions from various corners of the fanbase such as mccoveychronicles.com.  My thoughts are, as always, my opinion and based on information available in the public domain.  I do not personally have any non-public information.

Kapler comes, to put it mildly, with some baggage.  If you want details about his role in two very problematic situations during his tenure running Player Development for the Dodgers, I highly suggest reading two posts from yesterday in the above mentioned McCovey Chronicles.  BTW, Kapler's boss when those situations occurred was none other than Farhan Zaidi himself.  While I believe people are capable of learning from their mistakes, I do hope Giants ownership have done their due diligence in making sure situations like that won't occur during Farhan's and Kapler's tenures with the Giants as well as making sure there is no pending legal jeopardy stemming from their Dodgers employment.

Gabe Kapler's 2-year tenure managing the Phillies was rocky and polarizing to say the least with a string of incidents ranging from in-game decisions to his management of the clubhouse.  Of particular note as an attempt to change pitchers when he had none warmed up in the bullpen and a reported clubhouse incident involving Carlos Santana(not the guitar player) destroying a TV screen being used to play video games.  The moment that sticks in my mind came during an in-game TV interview.  Kapler had just lifted SP Jake Arrieta(who was getting shelled and needed to come out, BTW).  Kapler and Arrieta appeared to exchange words in the dugout that were not completely friendly.  When asked by the TV crew about the exchange with Arrieta, Kapler responded in a sort of faux drill sergeant/jock/Clint Eastwood growly voice, "I told him he was a warrior and had given everything he had and needed to let his teammates pick him up" or something that effect.  From my perch on the recliner chair watching the game, I said out loud, "oh geez!  Can you imaging having to listen to THAT day after day in the dugout and clubhouse?"  Again, everybody has their preferred managing styles.  That is just not mine.  So Gabe Kapler is not my choice to be Bruce Bochy's successor as Manager of the Giants.

On top of his own baggage, Gabe Kapler also has a very tough act to follow in San Francisco.  It helps that the last several years of Bruce Bochy's tenure did not go so well, but he will inevitably be compared to Boch at some point and it's not likely to be a favorable comparison.  Giants fans in general are supportive and forgiving, but they have also come to have high expectations and rightfully so.  I will continue to root for the Giants to win and wish both Kapler and Farhan many rings.  In general, managers tend to perform better in their second gig.  Bruce Bochy himself was once widely scorned for losing his DH in a World Series game when he was managing the Padres.  I personally question whether  Gabe Kapler has had adequate time to reflect on his tenure in Philadelphia or whether he is even capable of said reflection, but I hope his Giants tenure goes better and he proves to be a great manager.

Hot Stove Update: Farhan Finally Hires A GM

The Giants announced today the hiring of Cubs Assistant GM Scott Harris to be their new GM under working under President of Baseball Operations, Farhan Zaidi who had been doing GM duties himself over the past year since his own hiring.  Harris reportedly was a highly respected member of a highly respected management team in the Windy City working with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.  Prior to being Assistant GM in Chicago, Harris held the title of Director of Baseball Operations.  As Assistant GM, he reportedly oversaw the Cubs research and development department, the arbitration process and financial strategy and planning for baseball operations.  Those seem like skills that should complement Farhan well in the Giants front office.

Harris' hiring comes as a bit of a surprise as it was long assumed by many analysts that A's Assistant GM Billy Owens was the prohibitive favorite for the job.  While I admit I have pretty much no idea what makes a good GM, I was not crazy about things I read about Owens, particularly his reputation for falling in love with toolsy players and aggressively advocating for them to the rest of management.  That made me wonder if he might have had influence on A's draft picks like Austin Beck and Kyler Murray.  Of course, Owens may also have advocated for the likes of Khris Davis and Marcus Semien, which would be positives on his resume.  I like that Farhan reached outside his A's/Dodgers comfort zone to hire Harris, who brings experience with a management group with an entirely different pedigree.

This hiring would seem to portend another announcement of a new field manager this week.  Stay tuned.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Mick Abel

Mick Abel RHP, HS.  6'6", 185 lbs.

Tall HS RHP with a projectable body who throws easy heat up to 97 MPH with mid-80's slurve.  Here is PG's capsule summary:  "Absolutely electric at PG National running his FB up to 97 MPH with minimal effort and still project for more.  Showed plus slider at 86 MPH as well."  "Extra long and tall frame with tremendous physical projection....looks like he is warming up when he's throwing 96 MPH."  The first comp I thought of looking at video was Michael Kopech.  He has Kopech's tremendous ceiling but as in Kopech's case, anytime you have a HS kid throwing this hard this early, TJ is constantly lurking.  High effort or low effort, velocity requires force.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.

Thoughts on Things I Want for Christmas for the Giants

Hey team! Sorry for the paucity of posts, but the Hot Stove has gone cold except for almost daily rumors about new candidates for Manager and GM.  What's THAT all about?  Anyway, I thought I would post about some things I have long wanted for the Giants and hope we get at least one or two by Christmas.

1.  A Real Leadoff Hitter.  What do I mean by a real leadoff hitter?  One with an OBP of at least .350 and steals at least 40 bases.  How long has it been since the Giants had such a player?  Try Brett Butler in 1988!  Before that there was Billy North in 1980.  Yeah, I want one of those again!  Only problem is players like that pretty much don't exist anymore, so I believe it is highly unlikely this Christmas wish will come true.

2.  A leftfielder who hits at least 30 HR's.  Man, I thought Mac Williamson was going to be this guy!  Alas, it was not to be.  Right now, I don't see anyone on the roster likely to fit this description.  Any chance of getting one via trade or free agency?

3.  Mauricio Dubon starting at shortstop and a new second baseman likely to hit 20+ HR's.  In other words, Brandon Crawford is either off the team or relegated to a bench role.  If the Giants essentially treat Crawford's salary as a sunk cost, they are not going to want to pay a large salary to a new 2B. Fortunately this year's FA market is a buyer's market for 2B.  Two names to consider:  Jonathan Schoop and Starlin Castro.  A trade for Jonathan Villar is a great suggestion from a commenter too!

4.  Brandon Belt to try choking up on the bat.  I admit Brandon Belt has had underrated success doing just what he has always done, which is stand on top of home plate and grip a long bat on the knob.  The problem for me is that does not translate into driving pitches on the outside corner and to frequent jams with pitches on the inner half of the plate.  I mean, when he swings the bat, his hands come trough mid-zone!  If it's on the inside corner, he's making contact with his forearms!  Choking up a hair on the bat like Barry Bonds and Hunter Pence would keep him from getting jammed on pitches on the inner half and also get his bat to the zone more quickly.  BTW, you know who stands right on the plate but compensates by choking up?  Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs!

5.  Sign 2 good SP's one of whom may be Madison Bumgarner.   Giants need at least 4 good veteran SP's which allows Tyler Beede and Logan Webb to compete for 5'th SP.  If FA signing predictions are close to accurate, the Giants can re-sign him at a very affordable price with plenty of room for another good SP, of which there are several intriguing choices.  but if it's not Bummy, then it needs to be another SP capable of fronting a competitive rotation.  This is all in addition to the obligatory roster churning Farhan does on an almost daily basis and which may uncover a gem or two.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Emerson Hancock

Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).  6'4", 213 lbs.

2018:  6-4, 5.10, 77.2 IP, 34 BB, 75 K.
2019:  8-3, 1.99, 90.1 IP, 18 BB, 97 K.

Tall RHP with long arms and legs but otherwise well proportioned with room to carry more weight.  Two plus pitches, FB that runs to 98 MPH and a putaway slider.  Can also offer a curve and changeup.  3/4 released with with a bit of short-arm motion.  On video, I see a bit of extra elbow action which I tend to equate with injury risk.  He missed some time with a lat strain in 2019 and had command issues when he tried to come back.  At this point, he's the top pitcher in the draft and some analysts have him ranked #1 overall.  I put him behind the 2 hitters due to the injury concern and the statistical superior ROI for college hitters.

*********************************************************************************

DrB's 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).

Hot Stove Update: Keep on Choog....Churnin'!

The Giants added three players to The Churn today:  IF Kean Wong, RHP Rico Garcia and RHP Trevor Oaks.  To make room on the 40 man roster, OF Mike Gerber and RHP Ricardo Pinto were designated for assignment.  Hey, I've been a longtime fan of the Wong boys myself,  and I definitely don't see any reason to keep Ricardo Pinto around, but the Gerber part kind of bothers me.  Yes, I know he had his chances last year at the MLB level, but so did Kean Wong.  To me, Gerber's track record in the minors shows more upside than Wong's.  This feels like more churning for the sake of churning.  Thank you.  Next!

BTW, I absolutely do not promise to keep up with every roster churning move Farhan cranks out this season, and yes, he'll probably come up with at least 1 surprising success story I will fail to comment on.

Grade:  BFD

*********************************************************************************
I've read rumors of high level meetings involving Farhan and ownership discussing pros and cons of potential managers.  More specifically the pros and cons of hiring Gabe Kapler.  Gotta wonder if Farhan is getting some pushback from high levels for his first choice for Manager.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 205 lbs.

2018:  .320/.440/.743, 12 2B, 25 HR, 14.79 BB%, 17.12 K%, 257 PA.
2019:  .351/.446/.707, 17 2B, 23 HR, 14.19 BB%, 15.57 K%, 289 PA.

2018 CCL:  .333/.472/.704, 9 2B, 7 HR, 18.52 BB%, 22.22 K%, 108 PA.
2019 CCL:  .385/.556/1.000, 2 2B, 2 HR, 22.22 BB%, 16.67 K%, 18 PA.

Spencer Torkelson is this year's future Paul Goldschmidt, a RH hitting machine who projects to play only 1B or DH in the pros.  He has a very similar profile to Andrew Vaughn from last year's draft.  All you have to do is look at the numbers and see the combination of hit, power and plate discipline don't come much better than that.  It's not a body that is going to sell a lot of jeans and I can't say he looks good in a baseball uniform, but if you can hit like that, who cares?  I'll just say the body falls somewhere between Steve Garvey and Dan Uggla and leave it at that.  The Giants could use a player of his profile in the organization and he's from Petaluma so likely grew up a Giants fan, but he'll likely be long off the board when they pick at #13.

*********************************************************************************

Dr B's 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).

Hot Stove Update: Bumgarner and Smith Get QO's.

It was not surprise the Giants gave Madison Bumgarner and Qualifying Offer.  He'll almost certainly reject it and test the market.  Fangraphs and MLBTR have him getting right about 4 yrs/$72 M which seems like a pretty good deal for the team to me.  I say the Giants should go has high as 4/$80 and re-sign him.  Bummy says he's going to take who the new manager is into account.  That sounds like codespeak for it better not be Gabe Kapler to me.

The offer to Will Smith was less of a slam dunk.  Fangraphs has him getting about 3 yrs/$30 M.  Accepting the QO would give him over half of that for one season.  Seems to me it's better than 50-50 he accepts, but what do I know?  I thought it was 60-40 it wasn't offered.  Seems like an accepted QO might be a good deal for both Smith and the Giants.  Then again, MLBTR has him going to the Twins for 3 yrs/$42 M and if that's his market, he'll likely turn down the QO.  What do you think?

*********************************************************************************

8 other free agents received Qualifying Offers including Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Steven Strasburg, Josh Donaldson, Marcel Ozuna, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odirizzi and Jose Abreu.

 I would think losing a second round draft pick would not make most teams think twice about signing any of these excellent players, but many teams insanely overvalue draft picks right now.  I can understand not wanting to give up a first rounder, but by the time you get to the second round, the odds of getting an impact player in the draft are about 10% or less.

*********************************************************************************

The Giants activated Zach Green from the 60-day IL and sent him outright to AAA where they signed  him as a minor league FA.  They also released Cristhian Adames and signed him as a minor league FA.

Tyler Anderson, Steven Duggar, Trevor Gott, Reyes Moronta and Tony Watson were activated from the 60-day IL and kept on the 40-man roster.

Armchair GM: Should the Giants Tender a Contract to Kevin Pillar?

Kevin Pillar was a nice trade pickup for Farhan Zaidi early last season.  For 3 players who didn't have a future with the Giants, The Pride of Cal State Dominguez Hills came from the Blue Jays and really solidified CF.  I have to admit, I did not expect as much as I thought his marginal power would evaporate in Oracle Park and the other west coast ballparks and we'd be left with a low OBP and no power.  Instead, Pillar turned in what might be his peak season offensively and an almost daily string of highlight reel catches in CF.

That performance came with some downside though as Pillar had a walk rate of just 2.8% which translated into an OBP of .287.  The highlight reel catches masked a distinct lack of range manifested mostly by playing way too deep which allowed a lot of balls to fall in front of him.  Add that all up and his fWAR was a pedestrian 1.5, which brings us to the question of whether the Giants should offer him arbitration and risk an approximately $10 M payout.

Now, if he repeats his 1.5 fWAR, he'll earn his $10 M and more and it's just a 1 year contract.  On the other hand, does Farhan really want to spend $10 M he could allocate to, say, signing Gerrit Cole and take up a roster spot he could use for a cheaper, better alternative in CF and/or a much better hitting corner OF?  Ha! You say.  That's just the rub.  There is no better, cheaper alternative so we're stuck!  Pay him the $10 M and have faith he will perform to another 1.5 fWAR.

Here is my answer:  YtY!  Yes, Mike Yastrzemski didn't play much CF for the Giants in 2019, but he did not embarrass himself when he did.  He also spent about 1/3 of the total innings of his minor league career playing CF.  So, he should be able to play passable D in CF where his bat plays up.  Joey Rickard has enough CF experience he can play the short end of the platoon in a position where his RH platoon bat plays up.  Mike Gerber and Steven Duggar are still on the 40-man roster and CF depth.   I would then try to sign Marcel Ozuna(Kylie McDaniel/Fangraphs estimated contract for Ozuna is 4 yrs/$70 M) to play RF in a reconfigured Oracle Park with Alex Dickerson and Austin Slater or Jaylin Davis forming another platoon in LF.

Conclusion:  Do not tender a contract to Kevin Pillar and re-allocate the $10 M from his estimated 2020 salary.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Overview; Austin Martin

The 2019 draft was one of the weaker drafts in memory mostly because of an extreme weakness in pitching.  The college pitching crop was extremely weak and the HS pitching was possibly even weaker.  Just 9 of the 30 first round picks were pitchers and the first HS pitcher taken was at #18.  The Giants took just one pitcher out of their first 10 picks.  College hitting was probably slightly above average while HS hitting was about par.  A preliminary look at the 2020 draft looks like it is at least more balanced between hitting and pitching.  Whether that translates into overall strength remains to be seen.

The Giants are set to draft at #13 overall.  That would only change if a team above them exceeds the CBT threshold by more than $40 M and gets dropped by 10 slots, which seems unlikely.  Statistically, the top ROI comes from college hitters and it's not really close.  Next is probably college pitching then HS hitting with HS pitching bringing up the rear due to a frightful injury rate.  Having said that, pitching is currently extremely thin in the Giants organization, as weak as I can remember.  Organizational need should definitely not dictate the first round pick, but they might want to lean pitching in subsequent rounds all else being equal.

With that overview, let's get on with our draft prospect profiles.  We'll use the current Fangraphs BOARD rankings and work our way down the list.  As we profile new names we will develop our own ranking which may or may not be the same as the Fangraphs ranking.

*********************************************************************************

Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt):  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 170 lbs.

2018:  .338/.452/414, 14 2B, HR, 22 SB, 12.82 BB%, 16.85 K%, 273 PA.
2019:  .410/.503/.619, 19 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 18 SB, 12.84 BB%, 10.47 K%, 296 PA.

Based on Fangraphs scouting report, Martin brings a plus-plus hit tool with superior plate discipline and emerging power.  Fangraphs guys say his athleticism and overall fielding is behind Dansby Swanson at the same stage and could end up at 2B, but has more than enough bat to make that close to irrelevant.  On video he has a compact, yet powerful swing and is able to pull his arms in and get around on an inside FB.  So, Austin Martin has the pole position to start the 2020 draft cycle.

Hot Stove Update: Tony Watson Opts In; Chapman Stays With Yankees

The Hot Stove should be fully fired up this week with Qualifying Offer decisions due and possible announcements of a new manager and GM for the Giants.  We'll report a couple of minor developments for the Giants and a bigger one for the rest of MLB.  

LHP Tony Watson exercised his Player Option to extend his contract for 1 more season.  His base pay will be $2.5 M with an AAV for CBT calculations of $3 M.  He reportedly has incentives in the contract which allow him to earn up to $7 M if he meets all of them.  Watson was a reliable set up man in the first half of 2019, but his ERA ballooned in the second half.  His season ended with a hand injury suffered while diving to tag the bag in a close play at 1B.  New rules are likely to make lefty relievers who can hold their own against RH batters very valuable, so watch the trade market for Watson.

The Giants declined a Team Option on LHP Fernando Abad and RHP Kyle Barraclough elected free agency rather than accept an assignment to AAA Sacramento.  Neither of these developments were unexpected.

*********************************************************************************

The Yankees kept LHP Aroldis Chapman from opting out of the final 2 years of his contract with a 1-year extension for $18 M.  Chapman now has 3 years/$48 M left on his current contract.  Chapman earned 37 Saves with a 2.21 ERA in 2019.  

This signing may have a ripple effect on the Giants as it potentially sets a benchmark for Will Smith's value.  Smith put up very similar numbers last year with 34 Saves and a 2.76 ERA.  The comp suggests Smith is right on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer and for accepting it.  Smith and the Giants could also work out a multiyear deal with a lower AAV to avoid the QO.  Lot of possible permutations here.  Stay tuned!

Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review #21-30

21.  Orioles:  DL Hall LHP, HS.

A+:  4-5, 3.46, 80.2 IP, 12.94 K/9, 6.02 BB/9.

Several mock drafts had the Giants in on DL Hall.  He appears to have strikeout stuff, but also major control/command issues.  Grade C.

22.  Blue Jays:  Logan Warmoth SS, College(North Carolina).

A+:  .292/380/.423, 7 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 12.0 BB%, 25.9 K%, 158 PA.
AA:  .200/.290/.277, 11 2B, 3 3B, 12 SB, 8.7 BB%, 29.1 K%, 254 PA.

Mixed bag of results here. Really struggled in fairly large sample size after promotion to AA.  Grade C.

23.  Dodgers:  Jeren Kendall OF, College(Vanderbilt).

A+:  .219/.319/.469, 11 2B, 10 3B, 19 HR, 24 SB, 12.4 BB%, 35.7 K%, 412 PA.

Tools galore but continued contact struggles and resulting low BA in repeat of level are not great signs.  Grade D+.

24.  Red Sox:  Tanner Houck RHP, College(Missouri).

AA:  8-6, 4.25, 82.2 IP, 8.71 K/9, 3.48 BB/9.
AAA:  0-0, 3.24, 25 IP, 9.72 K/9, 5.04 BB/9.

Moved up the ladder but not with the results you want to see.  Grade C.

25.  Nationals:  Seth Romero LHP, College(Houston).

DNP.

LHP with elite stuff who has been troubled by numerous off-field issues.  Missed all of 2019 with TJ surgery.  We'll see if he shows up in the spring.  Grade D-.

26.  Rangers:  Bubba Thompson OF, HS.

A+:  .178/.261/.312, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 12 SB, 9.2 BB%, 31.6 K%, 228 PA.

The great unknown about drafting toolsy HS kids is always the hit tool.  Some of them eventually figure it out, most don't.  Grade D.

27.  Cubs:  Brendon Little LHP, JC(Florida).

A:  0-1, 1.91, 28.1 IP, 7.94 K/9, 4.13 BB/9.
A+:  2-1, 5.95, 19.2 IP, 10.53 K/9, 4.12 BB/9.

Late riser in the draft. Mixed results.  Grade C.

28.  Blue Jays:  Nate Pearson RHP, JC(Florida).

A+:  3-0, 0.86, 21 IP, 15.00 K/9, 1.29 BB/9.
AA:  1-4, 2.59, 62.2 IP, 9.91 K/9, 3.02 BB/9.
AAA:  1-0, 3.00, 18 IP, 7.50 K/9, 1.50 BB/9.

Very hard thrower getting results on the field. Maybe like to see more K's?   Grade B.

29.  Rangers:  Chris Seise SS, HS.

A:  .241/.272/.356, 4 2B, 3 3B, 6 SB, 3.3 BB%, 35.9 K%.

Not a great slash line and a horrific K/BB.  Grade D.

30.  Cubs:  Alex Lange RHP, College(LSU).

A+:  1-9, 7.36, 47.2 IP, 9.63 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.
AA(Cubs):  2-3, 3.92, 39 IP, 6.46 K/9, 4.38 BB/9.
AA(Tigers):  2-1, 3.45, 15.2 IP, 8.62 K/9, 4.60 BB/9.

Disappointing ERA's and even more disappointing K/BB.  Grade D.

*********************************************************************************

In review after review, you can see the dramatic decline in grades, both short and long term between the top, middle and bottom 10 of the first round let alone from round to round.

Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review #11-20

Giants picked Heliot Ramos at #19.

11.  White Sox:  Jake Burger 3B, College(Missouri St).

DNP.

Has missed two seasons due to Achilles tendon tears.  That's tough to come back from.  Grade D.

12.  Pirates:  Shane Baz RHP, HS.

A:  3-2, 2.99, 81.1 IP, 9.63 K/9, 4.09 BB/9.

Disappointing start to his pro career.  Traded to the Rays in the Chris Archer deal.  Could break out if he can solve his control/command issues.  Grade C.

13.  Marlins:  Trevor Rogers LHP, HS.

A+:  5-8, 2.53, 110.1 IP, 9.95 K/9, 1.95 BB/9.
AA:  1-2, 4.50, 26 IP, 9.69 K/9, 3.12 BB/9.

Solid numbers in aggressive placements.  Grade B+.

14.  Royals:  Nick Pratto 1B, HS.

A+:  .191/.278/.310, 21 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 17 SB, 10.4 BB%, 34.7 K%.

Has to hit in 1B-only profile.  Grade D.

15.  Astros:  JB Bukauskas RHP, College(North Carolina).

AA(Astros):  2-4, 5.25, 85.2 IP, 10.30 K/9, 5.67 BB/9.
AA(D'Backs): 0-1, 7.71, 7 IP, 14.14 K/9, 6.43 BB/9.

High-floor college pitcher profile.  Traded to D'Backs in Zack Greinke deal.  Disappointing control/command numbers.  Grade D.

16.  Yankees:  Clarke Schmidt RHP, College(South Carolina).

A+:  4-5, 3.84, 63.1 IP, 9.81 K/9, 3.41 BB/9.
AA:  2-0, 2.37, 19 IP, 9 K/9, 0.47 BB/9.

Drafted despite undergoing TJ surgery his junior season in college.  Solid numbers since recovering.  Grade B+.

17.  Mariners:  Evan White 1B, College(Kentucky).

AA:  .293/.350/.488, 13 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 2 SB, 7.3 BB%, 23 K%, 400 PA.

Some analysts thought he could play CF in pros due to athleticism.  Has played exclusively 1B in Mariners farm system, but the bat looks like it will play.  Grade B+.

18.  Tigers:  Alex Faedo RHP, College(Florida).

AA:  6-7, 3.90, 115.1 IP, 10.46 K/9, 1.95 BB/9.

High floor college pitcher profile. Stock dropped through the draft cycle.  Progressing on schedule in the pros.  Grade B.

19.  Giants:  Heliot Ramos OF, HS.

A+:  .306/.385/.500, 18 2B, 13 HR, 6 SB, 9.5 BB%, 25.1 K%.
AA:  .242/.321/.421, 6 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 9.4 BB%, 31.1 K%.

I remember seeing impressive video of Heliot before the draft.  When I saw a mock draft with him to the Dodgers, I actually yelled at the computer screen, "No, the Giants can't let that happen!"  Well, they didn't and it's a good thing.  Excelled in A+ ball at age 19.  K rate bumped after promotion to AA.  Developing more as a power hitter than speed guy.  Not a lock to stay in CF.  Grade B+.

20.  Mets:  David Peterson LHP, College(Oregon).

AA:  3-6, 4.19, 116 IP, 9.47 K/9, 2.87 BB/9.

High floor college pitcher profile.  FIP's better than ERA's two years running.  Grade B.

Scouting The Draft: 2017 Draft Review #1-10

2017 MLB draftees have now had 3 pro seasons and 2 full seasons to show their baseball chops.  A few have even reached the major leagues.  This makes a nice time to check in on their progress.  We scouted the 2017 draft quite heavily so most of the names should ring a bell.   As in past reviews, we'll assign grades which are for current overall progress/development only, not necessarily future value.  Also they are just for fun.  Stats are for 2019 unless indicated otherwise.

#1.  Twins:  Royce Lewis SS, HS.

A+:  .238/.289/.376, 17 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 16 SB, 6.5 BB%, 21.5 K%, 418 PA.
AA:  .231/.291/.358, 9 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 6 SB, 7.4 BB%, 22.3 K%, 148 PA.

Loved the athleticism, questioned the bat.  Bat started out looking great but struggled with aggressive promotion.  Grade B.

#2.  Reds:  Hunter Greene RHP, HS.

DNP.

2-way HS player drafted as a RHP.  Triple digit velocity.  Missed 2019 with TJ surgery.  Track record for these situations is not great.  Could fall back on the bat if the pitching thing does not work out.  Grade D.

#3.  Padres:  Mackenzie Gore LHP, HS.

A+:  7-1, 1.02, 79.1 IP, 12.48 K/9, 2.27 BB/9.
AA:  2-1, 4.15, 21.2 IP, 10.38 K/9, 3.32 BB/9.

Did not have elite velocity, but had the best combination of stuff and advanced pitchability in the draft.  Total domination of A+.  Less so after aggressive promotion to AA.  Still an elite pitching prospect.  Grade A.

#4.  Rays:  Brendan McKay LHP/1B, College(Lousville).

AA:  3-0, 1.30, 41.2 IP, 13.39 K/9, 1.94 BB/9.  .167/.256/.192, 90 PA.
AAA:  3-0, 0.84, 32 IP, 11.25 K/9, 2.53 BB/9.  .239/.346/.493, 5 HR, 78 PA.
MLB:  2-4, 5.14, 49 IP, 10.29 K/9, 2.94 BB/9.  .200/.273/.500, HR, 11 PA.

Unique prospect with potential to be a true 2-way player in MLB, although most likely will mainly pitch.  ERA was high in MLB debut but peripherals remained strong.  Grade A.


#5.  Braves:  Kyle Wright RHP, College(Vanderbilt).

AAA:  11-4, 4.17, 112.1 IP, 9.29 K/9, 2.80 BB/9.
MLB:  0-3, 8.69, 19.2 IP, 8.24 K/9, 5.95 BB/9.

Elite college RHP with both strong stuff and pitchability.  Widely thought to be most MLB ready player in the draft.  Has moved fast with aggressive promotions but has failed to look like an ace and has struggled at MLB level.  Will likely get more chances, but in this business you have to show your stuff quickly or the chances dry up.  Grade C.

#6.  A's:  Austin Beck OF, HS.

A+:  .251/.302/.411, 22 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 6.5 BB%, 34.3 K%, 367 PA.

Caught helium late in the draft cycle.  This is what bothers me about Billy Owens as a GM candidate.  He's reputed to fall in love with toolsy kids and advocate passionately for them.  I don't know if he's the reason why the A's drafted Beck and Kyler Murray, but the story fits the situations.  Kids like this have upside, but are extremely risky.  Grade C.

#7.  D'Backs:  Pavin Smith 1B, College(Virginia).

AA:  .291/.370/.466, 29 2B, 6 3B, 12 HR, 2 SB, 11.6 BB%, 12.0 K%, 507 PA.

Thought by many to be the best pure hitter in the draft, but stuck in 1B/DH only prison.  Terrific contact numbers with gap power, but will likely need to show more power to make it in his demographic.  Grade B.

#8.  Phillies:  Adam Haseley OF, College(Virginia).

AA:  .267/.353/.485, 8 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 4 SB, 11.1 BB%, 18.4 K%, 190 PA.
AAA:  .294/.377/.471, 6 2B, 2 HR, SB, 10.3 BB%, 17 9 K%,  78 PA.
MLB:  .266/.324/.396, 14 2B, 5 HR, 4 SB, 5.8 BB%, 24.8 K%, 242 PA.

Fast ascent to majors with decent rookie numbers.  Probably has to play CF for the bat to play.  Grade B+.

#9.  Brewers:  Keston Hiura 2B, College(UC Irvine).

AAA:  .329/.407/.681, 16 2B, 3B, 19 HR, 9.5 BB%, 26.3 K%, 243 PA.
MLB:  .303/.368/.570, 23 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 7.2 BB%, 30.7 K%, 348 PA.

Elite hit tool with a power breakout of 38 HR across 2 levels in 2019.  Still defensively challenged even for 2B.  May end up as a 1B, but if he can sustain numbers, who cares?  Grade A.

#10.  Angels:  Jo Adell OF, HS.

AA:  .308/.390/.553, 15 2B, 8 HR, 6 SB, 10.4 BB%, 22.5 K%, 182 PA.
AAA:  .264/.321/.355, 11 2B, SB, 7.6 BB%, 32.6 K%, 132 PA.

I thought Adell was the most physical hitter in the draft if he could just make contact.  So far the hit tool has been better than expected and he has moved fast.  An elite power hitting prospect.  Grade A.