The Giants played poorly in every facet of the game today and it showed in the final score. You play like that against a team like the Red Sox and they won't just beat you, they will destroy you! Key Lines:
Joaquin Arias- 2 for 3, HR(1). BA= .288. I continue to be intrigued by the possibilities that lie inside Joaquin Arias. He was once a highly prized prospect and still has obvious superior athleticism. I find myself wondering what he could do if he had a regular gig and stayed healthy.
Barry Zito- 3.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 5.63. I have a friend at work who is a Red Sox fan(he actually is from Boston). I told him the Red Sox might have ended Barry Zito's career today and it wasn't meant to be a joke. With Moscoso and Kickham already on the active roster and with rosters expanding in 10 days, I cannot think of any reason why Zito should start another game this season. I also cannot think of any reason why the Giants should spend an extra $11 M to keep him around next year. Yes, the $7 M buyout will be painful, but not nearly as painful as spending another $11 M to see performances like this. Maybe some other team would pick him up, although I cannot think of any team he would help right now, but I am ready to pronounce his Giants career done.
Mike Kickham- 4 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 10.72. As Alex P said, Kickham didn't make much of case to replace Zito in the rotation with this effort. He's still relatively young and might need another year of seasoning before he is ready for the majors.
The Pittsburgh Pirates now come in for a 4 gamer with Matt Cain pitching the opener facing lefty Jeff Locke.
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I was thinking the same thing about Zito. He's definitely done with the Giants and I can't think of a team that might take a flyer on him. We may be seeing the end of his career.
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one that would like to see Ellsbury as a Giant next year? Put him at leadoff and in CF and move Pagan to RF or LF and you have 2/3 of the OF solved.
ReplyDeleteNo, you are not alone. The Giants can save $11 M on Zito's contract by declining his option. The maximum they would/should spend on Timmy is the $14 M Qualifying Offer which saves $6 M off his current salary. That's $17 M right there. I would like to see the Giants take that money along with a modest increase in payroll and go after either Ellsbury or Shin Soo Choo. Either one would be a perfect addition to this team.
DeleteI do not want the Giants going after a QO FA unless their pick is protected. Right now, they are sitting on the #9 pick. Only the top 10 are protected (not counting Toronto's #11 which s compensation from their not signing the #10 pick sat year).
DeleteI agree with CSS on the protected pick part.
DeleteAlso, Timmy is being paid $22M for the season, so that's actually $8M saved on his salary, if not more, should he decide to try the FA market, I can't imagine that any team would pay him $14M right now for just one season, and we can be there to sign him when he's ready to sign.
DeleteAnd given that Belt is turning out to be our middle order bat, we could conceivable let Pence go, which saves $14M or so, and we would have more money for that leadoff guy of either Ellsbury or Choo.
I agree on the protected pick part, nobody is worth losing a draft pick over right now.
Now looking at the numbers, it looks like DrB expects Ellsbury or Choo to get more than $17M per season, more like $20M+. That amount scares me. Are they really worth that much?
I am leery of giving up the 1st round pick for either of those guys.
DeleteI'd look hard at the numbers for Jason Bay before getting too hopped up for ellsbury or choo. Demand is going to punch those guys to a minimum of 5 years 15mm annual, then the overbid to win it.
Then think about how Pac bell kills hr numbers. I think a combo of pagan and pence and either belt or a young one would be ok. No word on the giants in on any Cuban player still...
I think not enough has been made about Poseys play and how his lack of production has been one of the main reasons for the failure of the team this season. Hes been a huge part of why the offense has struggled. The one we're paying $167 million and deemed as our franchise player should be producing much more than what we're seeing with his atrocious numbers with risp, especially in bases loaded situations all year. Maybe its fatigue, but whatever it is, I think we all expected more from our MVP.
ReplyDeleteI think fatigue is a huge factor with Buster Posey, but if you remember, I was not thrilled about the contract at the time. As great as Buster is/has been, that is an extremely risky contract and will almost certainly be a bad one by the end of it.
DeleteBuster was rode hard this season with very few games off from behind the plate. The Giants cannot continue to ride him like that. They've got to have better options at backup catcher and other places for Buster to play unless they want him to be the next Russell Martin.
Sounds like Boch has already started thinking about that with his musing that Buster might be a good fit at 3B.
I've been mentioning Posey's decline for a while now, basically since early July, because that is when he became SuperPosey in 2010 and 2012. No such magic this season.
DeleteAs I outlined in another comment recently here, Posey has played more games this season at catcher than he did last season, almost 10% more, if memory serves. Plus more games period.
You keep on bringing up the Tigers. I don't see the Tigers dealing with injuries to a quarter of the team (Pagan, Vogelsong, Sandoval, Casilla, Affeldt, Scutaro, Crawford) plus declines from other players, and if you are going to compare apples to apples for this topic, their starting catcher from 2012, Alex Avila, has declined too, he had a .736 OPS last season (good .352 OBP), bad batting line of .198/.288/.340/.628 this season.
But it was not all on Buster. The Giants really June Swooned this season, but Posey hit .374/.426/.636/1.062 that month, so there is not really much more he could have done to hoist the Giants up that month.
The problem appears that he played too many games too early. He played in 26 games, started 25 in both May and June, plus 25/23 in April. There were 27 games each month, so he got very little rest the first three months, he was rode pretty hard, as well as catching more games as well. That is mainly due, I think, to Hanchez being injured and not available, so Posey caught more because Quiroz was never able to hit for much (made me miss Stewart, he at least could hit LHP well). He really dropped in July and August so far. So if any fault is to be applied, perhaps not giving Posey more rest early on would be one mistake by Bochy and the team's trainers, especially given the shortened off-season, due to both playoffs and WBC.
The point is that, for whatever reason, Posey seems fatigued this season. That is why we all have been wanting him to stop playing catcher and move to another position. But he's still hitting .303/.374/.480/.854, so I would not say that he's not been earning his contract, that's great for a starting catcher. And you call his RISP numbers atrocious, but he's hitting .271/.377/.375/.752, which, while not great, is not atrocious either.
And RISP splits are always subject to random bad luck. He has 19 walks and only 10 K's in 96 AB, so his BABIP there is only .283, but .324 for bases empty and .333 with runner on first, suggesting that he's just having extraordinary bad luck with RISP this season. Last season, his BABIP in RISP was basically the same as the other situations. His hitting with RISP is fine, just looks like bad luck right now.
OK, now I know this is a troll, Posey is 0 for 1 in bases loaded situations.
Still, trollie speaks to some truth, Posey's decline has been noticeable, the last two months, and given what I've described above, I think fatigue is clearly the issue and that's on Bochy and the team's trainers for not staying on top of that better. But I think in terms of his contract, he's been fine (could be way better, but he's fine; for example, he has 4.4 WAR this season, $22M worth of production, what more can you ask for $8M salary, plus he's probably 11th to 20th in WAR production, 10th is 4.8 WAR, 5th 5.4, so he could get back up there with a big push in September).
One thing to keep in mind with Buster - not much lineup protection. With the hacking twins lined up around him, he is pretty much the meal ticket and opposing pitchers are well aware.
DeleteGood thoughts. Thanks guys. I'm actually surprised Busters numbers are better than what I figured they were with RISP. But his slump has been so pronounced, its just been a long while since I recall him doing well in those situations especially in based loaded sitations. I do know that his career numbers with the bases loaded hasnt been that great (albeit, his clutch homerun in the NLDS was as big as they come) and he has admitted to pressing in those instances. All that to say, atrocious was too strong a word; I think my frustration was probably coming out at how this season has gone. JA
DeleteI wrote up a detailed breakdown of the roster going into 2014 that I think may be helpful for looking at needs and flexibility next year...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san-francisco-giants/110059-2014-rosterbation.html
In case the other thread is erased, rewritten to focus on Posey's decline recently:
ReplyDeleteI've been mentioning Posey's decline for a while now, basically since early July, because that is when he became SuperPosey in 2010 and 2012. No such magic this season.
As I outlined in another comment recently here, Posey has played more games this season at catcher than he did last season, almost 10% more, if memory serves. Plus more games period.
But it was not all on Buster. The Giants really June Swooned this season, but Posey hit .374/.426/.636/1.062 that month, so there is not really much more he could have done to hoist the Giants up that month.
The problem appears that he played too many games too early. He played in 26 games, started 25 in both May and June, plus 25/23 in April. There were 27 games each month, so he got very little rest the first three months, he was rode pretty hard, as well as catching more games as well. That is mainly due, I think, to Hanchez being injured and not available, so Posey caught more because Quiroz was never able to hit for much (made me miss Stewart, he at least could hit LHP well). He really dropped in July and August so far. So if any fault is to be applied, perhaps not giving Posey more rest early on would be one mistake by Bochy and the team's trainers, especially given the shortened off-season, due to both playoffs and WBC.
The point is that, for whatever reason, Posey seems fatigued this season. That is why we all have been wanting him to stop playing catcher and move to another position. But he's still hitting .303/.374/.480/.854, so I would not say that he's not been earning his contract, that's great for a starting catcher.
So, overall, Posey's decline has been noticeable, the last two months, and given what I've described above, I think fatigue is clearly the issue and that's on Bochy and the team's trainers for not staying on top of that better. But I think in terms of his contract, he's been fine (could be way better, but he's fine; for example, he has 4.4 WAR this season, $22M worth of production, what more can you ask for $8M salary, plus he's probably 11th to 20th in WAR production, 10th is 4.8 WAR, 5th 5.4, so he could get back up there with a big push in September).
And I disagree that his contract is necessarily bad at the end, though like Rowand's and Zito's contract, it really relies on continuous salary inflation.
DeleteIf $10M is the salary for an average type player today (2 WAR, $5M/WAR) and baseball salary inflation continues at roughly 10% (standard used by Fangraphs), by 2021, his last year of his contract, the average player is earning $21.4M, which just happens to be his salary that season, his age 34 season. Of course, with the economy still not growing much, any slow inflation years would derail that calculation (it did with Zito, his salary was suppose to be approaching average as well, but with the Great Recession in the middle of his contract screwing things up, he's still clearly way overpaid).
For his contract, if inflation holds he need to produce 22.8 WAR or so to earn his 2014-2022 salaries. But lets say there is some slippage and look at 25 WAR and 30 WAR as target production totals. Posey has been averaging 5.5 WAR for this season, but he started strong, so lets go with 5.0 WAR. That's roughly what he produced in 2010, pro-rated, as well. So he needs to average 5 WAR for 4 or 5 seasons to earn his contract, that is, produce consistently offensively and defensively to age 31/32, then produce 2.5 WAR in his last two years of his contract.
That seems to be a fair price, he's in the prime of his career, if anything, he should be arcing over the next few years, as he hits his prime physically, then falling back in his 30's. Of course, catchers decline fast, so hence the realization when the contract was signed that he would need to move off the catching position at some point.
It's good that Bochy noted Buster moving to 3B, that appears to be the Giants thinking on that. It is also where I have been suggesting he go play next, as the dangers of getting injured by a runner is much less there than at 2B, which is where I originally thought he might go, a la Craig Biggio. And his bat should play well there still. The questions are whether his ankle is repaired enough for him to handle that position, and who would take over.
Leading current candidates are Susac and Hanchez and probably in that order, Susac has done well offensively at AA and shows good raw catching skills, though still needing development. That's also why the Giants drafted 5 catchers this season, including pulling out the stops to sign John Riley for $450K even though he was drafted in the late rounds plus paid $100K, the full allowed, to get Ty Ross with the 12th round pick.
Also, while Arroyo is still at shortstop, a lot of the chatter at the time of the draft was that he's a future catcher, that he won't stick at SS. With Crawford and Adrianza looking to be around for a while at SS for us, the Giants could ask Arroyo to shift to a position of need at some point. Like C (though if his bat is this good, I have to think a shift to a corner position is more likely).
I think Arias is what he is, which is a utility player, not a starter.
ReplyDeleteI definitely agree about Kickham--the dude needs a lot more seasoning. I think he has given up at least 5 runs every appearance. That won't cut it.
As to Ellsbury and Choo, I think I rather choose Choo, but I don't think either of them solve the Giants power problem. Honestly, though, I don't see any option for the Giants to solve their power problem via free agency or trade. Their best bet would be to try and get a solid, non-black hole LF. Anybody got ideas about LF possibilities for next year?
One guy that intrigues me but that is probably too much of a high risk for Sabean is Dustin Ackley. Dude had a pretty good rookie campaign but has struggled ala Davis, Belt and Brown since then. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery?
Kickham actually had a great outing pitching in relief of Cain in his short start, equivalent of a quality start per PQS, but yeah, otherwise, he just gives up a lot of hits and runs. Until this appearance, he's been generally getting better with each outing.
DeleteThought I would pass this along: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/company-offers-wilson-1-million-180007322--mlb.html
ReplyDeleteActually, the offer is for at least $1M, as a publicity stunt for 800Razors.com, and apparently they have been in discussions with Wilson's agents for almost a week now. Frankly, have to think it's not going anywhere if they now put this PR out there, else why not wait?
I also have to think Wilson is more focused on getting the ball with LA than a stunt like this, at least right now, so I would imagine negotiations will be stalled until he's in his off-season.
Oddly enough, the link for his name brings you to Brian Wilson, defensive back for the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. I wonder if he still has eligibility?