The Giants came back from a 4-1 deficit to tie this one 4-4 only to lose it when Marco Scutaro went deep on Santiago Casilla in the top of the 9'th inning. Marco Scutaro? Key Lines:
Gregor Blanco- 1 for 2, 3 BB, SB(4). BA= .293. OBP= .408. Looks like Blanco is this year's Brian Sabean Dumpster Dive Special. Sabes does seem to come up with at least one of these every year. 2010: Andres Torres. 2011: Ryan Vogelsong 2012: Gregor Blanco. I don't even know if Sabes personally had anything to do with signing any of those 3, but he does have an organization in place that is looking for these guys and open to giving them a chance. Blanco probably won't hit .293/.408 the rest of the way but in 768 MLB AB's, he has a .260/.362 line with 30 SB's. His minor league career OBP is .364. He clearly has the talent and track record to be an above average MLB leadoff hitter. Not sure why he was sitting out there on the scrapheap with numbers like that.
Brandon Belt- 0 for 2, 2 BB, SF. BA= .239. OBP= .350. This is not a bad line for a #2 hitter, but the bases loaded K will probably be what sticks in Bochy's mind from this game. The .194 BA over his last 10 games isn't helping Belt's cause either.
Melky Cabrera- 1 for 5, 2B. BA= .333. Melky looked like he wasn't even seeing the ball against Guthrie. He had some ugly swings Monday night too. Jon Miller was commenting on it on the KNBR broadcast. Then Melky lines a double to drive in 2 in the 7'th. Unfortunately, he went back to swinging ugly in the 8'th. Rex Brothers does have good stuff, so probably gotta give him some credit for the late K's. The RISP thing has gotten ridiculous again. Gotta be some performance anxiety issues getting into their heads. The sample size is getting way too big to be bad luck and they are clearly not that bad as hitters.
Buster Posey- 0 for 4, BB. BA= .280. Buster would be hitting lower in a good lineup.
Angel Pagan- 3 for 5, SB(7). BA= .288. Pagan is delivering about as expected at the plate, but the D is very disappointing.
Brandon Crawford- 2 for 3, 2 BB. BA= .225. Crawford is looking much better at the plate and in the field.
Tim Lincecum- 7 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 7 K's. ERA= 5.77. Timmy looked better tonight. He kind of got BABIP'd, but 3 walks is still too many.
Santiago Casilla- 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 0 K. ERA= 1.84. Casilla has been terrific as the closer, but you can't go giving up game winning dingers to Marco Scutaro. I think sometimes when closers get settled into the role, they just don't do as well in non-save situations. Wilson had those tendencies too.
With the loss, the Giants lost an opportunity to gain a game on the NL West leading Dodgers who lost to the D'Backs 4-1. The Giants remained 6 games back in second place. The D'Backs and Rockies each gained a game to 8.5 and 9.5 games out respectively. The Padres also won, beating the Nats 6-1 and are now 11.5 games out in last place.
The reigning WS Champion Cardinals come to town for a two game series with Madison Bumgarner going against Jaime Garcia in Game 1 tonight.
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Belt needs to stay at the #2, and work on the contact issues. The Giants don't have a lot of choices right now. Hopefully they take the OBP gain with the hitting loss with Belt. If they can hope like hell with Manny Burriss, they can hope like hell with young Brandon.
ReplyDeleteSorry DrB, I'm completely over Manny Burriss at this point. Only player in the majors without an extra base hit. I try to support every young player, but I've run out of patience with Handy Manny. His latest offenses are a pick off, a misfielded pop up and a bunt attempt with 2 out.
The missed opp to gain on the Bums hurts. I do like the fight, coming back down 3 runs. Kick in the teeth. Now we have to get ready for Beltran and Furcal and the what if game. That ship has sailed, I'm completely over it.
Lots of discussion about Melky long term on MCC. While I really like what Melky is doing, his ISO numbers scare me, and I feel like we might be walking into Randy Winn 2, only more expensive. I like those draft picks or the one year deal as a better risk. But the Giants do need hitters who can hit. I think they need HRs more than anything though.
Crawford had some bad throws that Belt saved him on. He's hopefully improving. He is posterboy #1 for the Giants sticking up for a rookie. And so he's also whipping boy #1 as well. We'll see if he rewards them for their patience. I'm almost out of patience for Angel Pagan's defensive antics, and I'm regretting my raving about him. He needs to catch fire, or maybe be a trade chip for a middle infielder. Rough times, but we're still in it, and in it to win it baby!
Belt needs to stay at the #2, and work on the contact issues.
Deleteif this were fresno, i would agree with you...its not
giants have to win games, not develop belt
he doesnt get a pass cuz you and a bunch of beltheads see something that i cant
Who else on the team has a 350 OBP? 2 weeks straight, see what happens. No pass, just get some runners on base, let Melky, Posey and Pagan try and deal with it.
DeleteDepends on what we are paying Melky. Winn, once the contract was over, basically earned his contract, he got an average player's contract at $29M over 4 seasons, and produced roughly 2 wins (more actually, 2.15 or 8.6/4) per season, which is average player production. That's $3.37M per win, which I think worked out to be a bargain by free agent cost terms back then, probably around $4M per (now around $4.5-5.0M).
DeleteI don't know what is wrong with Melky ISO, he is at 154, which is pretty OK, average LF in NL right now has 149 ISO.
I certainly wouldn't pay him $15M per season, but if we can get him for $9-10M per season, I think that would be a fair, low risk deal. If he wants Rowand money, then I would offer him the $12M one year contract to get the draft pick if he moves on, but maybe he signs, I can live with one year of Rowand money, not 5 years. With Kieschnick and Peguero looking good so far, might not need to sign Melky, though if we can get him for, say, 3 years at $30M, I can live with that. But if Gary Mathews Jr could get his huge contract after one good season, Melky might expect more if he can produce two good seasons.
But we don't know what his mindset is. He sounds amenable to an extension, according to that interview in the Chron, and maybe he's a bird in the hand type of guy, if the Giants offer him a good contract mid-season, he might take it. Don't know if he's money grubbing, but at least his agent is not Boras, like Dirty, which is a guarantee try at free agency.
Yup, Melky's career ISO is 125. He had a 160 or so ISO in KC. If he can fill in the power and keep the ISO at 150 plus, I say yes to a 3 year deal. the problem is, he's only really ahead on singles as far as his career line at the moment, so his BA and BABIP are inflated. The power hasn't followed. From the looks of things, I think it will fill in, he seems to be hitting the hell out of the ball. But that's what the stats say at the moment.
DeleteHere is my problem with Randy Winn: you only have so many spots to give. As the last guy on the squad, a league average OF with good defense is a good move. When he's the headliner, its a huge problem. Sure, the WAR values work out, great. That isn't the point though. You should always have Randy Winn types getting developed (league average OFs with good defense) so you don't have to pay them open market WAR values. The Giants have that with Schierholtz, and hopefully with Roger K next in line. As the headliner centerpiece of the offense, its going to get ugly. And thats what happened in 2007-09. We need to strive for better than league average. You go on the open market to acquire something very good to excellent, not league average.
So the judgement call/risk equation: Is Melky Cabrera taking the next step towards very good to excellent, or will he regress to league average. Its a hard call. People should appreciate being a GM isn't easy. We only have so many spots, and the corner OF spots need to be filled with players that can put up HIGH ISO #s.
Was at the game, uggghh. Giants should have won 4-1.
ReplyDeleteSaw okay Timmy last night. Okay for a #4/#5 starter. Still not getting tough stopping runs, re: Vogelsong. Still better than bad Timmy. Did Bochy leave him out there too long, 120 pitches w/run scored in the 7th?
Burriss - WTF, NOT BASEBALL. Bunt with 2 outs and a man on 2B and the pitcher due up. What if the bunt works? That leaves a man on 3B and the pitcher trying to drive the run in or losing the pitcher to a pinch hitter. UGLY. Throw in errors, pick off, no XBH and reminding me of Tenada only younger.
Nate/fail - Looks at a called third strike down the middle with the game on the line. It's called pinch hitting, not pinch looking.
Belt/fail - bases loaded, one out, score tied and three BAD pitches later, done. No battle, just done. The bat has to hit the ball. Not that Pill or Huff are better options.
Blanco made the catch Pagan should have made. Pagan was there just didn't get the mitt down. Can't let that ball get by you in center with no outs.
Nearly lost my garlic fries over Arias getting hit and then seeing a Burriss/Craw/Culbie infield. The Mendoza Club.
The Giants need to find a team identity. Just not from last night's game.
Shank, Melky has proved it over a year, spring training and now almost two months, this on a new team and in a new league. Wynn hot for 3 months only. Sign Melky!! 3/$45MM.
I would also add Santiago Casilla to the dumpster dive found money list as well. And Arias has been nice at times too.
ReplyDeleteBlanco, I think, was a tweener. He never showed up on the BA Top 30 list and my other prospect book noted him as a potential reserve OF. They note his "incredible speed" and quick bat and plate discipline, which leads to OBP, is a good situational hitter, but no power. And if you look at his SB%, they were pretty bad for someone that fast, though oddly enough, this other book rates the fastest prospects, and while guys like Velez, Burriss, and Marcus Sanders made the list, Blanco's name was not on it, either in 2007 or 2008. His speed probably helped his SB, but he's doing it more by speed than ability. So teams are not going to give him much of a chance, after the Braves gave up on him.
Looking at his minors, while he knows how to take walks, he's also been pretty bad at avoiding the strikeouts. He's still doing it now with us, and only a high BABIP is helping him have a nice batting line. If his BABIP fell closer to his career norms, he loses about 70+ OPS points, dropping him to mid-700's OPS (or lower), given the burst of SLG that homer gave him, could be bigger drop, which is still around OK, but his OBP should still be excellent.
I think given what Shankbone's been noting, dealing with all the problems of missing personnel, Blanco is perfect for tiding us over, but if the BABIP does regress, he might be better off as a 4th OF.
However, if Pagan keeps on playing the way he is, like a Fred Lewis in CF, while hitting OK, I think he'll be the trading chip this mid-season, not Schierholtz as some been speculating here, because Blanco is probably tolerable for low SLG, but has the high OBP that we need up top, unlike what Pagan has been doing, he's like more a prototypical 6/7th hitter than leadoff hitter. And his defense has been horrible. Right now, Blanco appears to be a similar enough player to Pagan that trading Pagan makes sense if we can find a team wanting a hitting CF with speed.
I agree completely on Pagan OGC. We're seeing everything bad that Mets fans yelled about. I've watched him a fair amount, there is a lot of good stuff there, but its sort of like Cody Ross, he's streaky. He will make some incredible plays, but those come at the expense of bad juju like last night. The boneheaded moves are just killing us on defense though. Bay City Ball is comparing him to Marvin Bernard out there, and that's a pretty nice comp. I'm looking silly for my Pagan call. Only trade chip, as Schierholtz has decided to go hide out, with the bonus we won't lose Nate's sweet D.
DeleteMonterey Shark - 3/45 for Melky sounds about right. I'm scared of the Rowand type deal. The problem I see is the ISO/SLG side of it. Sure, the Giants don't have anything better right now. They desperately need players with high ISO. The hits Melky is throwing down are great. We need more gap power, and really we need more home runs. One red flag is his home/road splits, he hasn't played very well at home, and he hasn't played very much at home. We'll see how that shakes out. This is a big test of Sabean's discipline with multi-year contracts and his player evaluation. Looks good so far on the trade front for sure, but if Melky is going to hover in the 750-825 OPS area, I'm not sure big money and big years is the way to go, especially as he will yield 2 fat draft picks or a one year deal.
Would you rather have Melky or Beltran? I am going with Melky due to gap-togap power, average, all around hustle, speed, defense, +arm, and most importantly prime of youth. As OGC likes to say, "once you get a baseball skill you own it". Melky owns a very valuable skill for the Giants, now and in the future. Melky is 2X important given the Giants track record (and barren farm system) with developing 4.5 tool players like Melky's. Sign Melky!!
DeleteAs an all around player with the injury risk and youth, I'd go with Melky. That is a hard choice, you're going to lose 100 plus points of OPS, most of it in the part that hurts the most, the SLG. Beltran's speed and defense are on the decline, and I don't think he will stay healthy. But that is a hard call. With the resources constrained, I can understand not grabbing Beltran, but I really wish the RDF guys thought about it a bit more. Ive always liked Beltran a bunch, and I hope he stays healthy and performs at a high level. I think it is a very risky proposition that is getting glossed over by the hot start accentuated by the dingerz though.
DeleteMelky at the right price, if his performance proves out, would be great. But what that price is and what the performance is, that needs to be crunched heavily.
We get to see it on the field for the next two games...
DeleteLast night's heart breaker was a microcosm of G's season.Freak's hurling makes ME want to hurl,still bad. As for the infield,dreadful defensively and their offense is just that,offensive.With their inability to win more than one game with the dinger (Pagan in N.Y.)and 3 for 17 with men on base,this is a.500 squad.I say it again,cultivate a sense of humor.It now appears that everything went right in 2010.Had S.D. not gagged that year, the G's would still be "ringless in S.F. Just a matter of time before attendance drops at AT&T. Let's face the facts, the G's simply don't have enough impact players to be consistent. Without a consistent long ball difference maker, this team is once again destined for another season of torture. Ian.
ReplyDeleteProblem with not signing Mekly (even at 3/$45MM) and Melky leaves next year is:
ReplyDeleteWho fills his place?
1. Another FA OF, with unknown risks and a known overpay to get him the come here and hit? Very risky and expensive given Sabes track record with FA hitters.
or
2. Someone of Nate/Brown/Pegs/BigK/dumpster dive makes it. Again that leaves Pagan, Blanco and someone unknown in 2013. That really is subtraction by subtraction. Hopefully one of the above makes it as a cheap 4th OF in 2013.
3. We get draft picks in return. Not so good under the new rules. Plus as OGC points out even Supp picks odds ain't worth that much. Even worse it wastes our dominate pitching talent for another X years while picks develop, if at all.
So, what options do the giants really have?
You just made a great trade, pitching for hitting. Melky's risks are knowable right here, right now. We get to see how he plays and how he fits with the team. You have the hitting bird in hand. Sign Melky!!!
About the draft picks, check BA or PerfectGame for the details. OGC and I have been at it about this, it is my understanding that the signing team forfeits their pick to the player losing team, AND the losing team also gets a supplemental, just the same. The writing in the MLB site is vague, but I've had multiple informed sources saying this is the case. Bottom 10 in the league get their pick protected, then you get 2 supplementals.
DeleteHere's a new angle: with so many teams locking up their talent, there will be very few free agents being offered the 12MM plus. That means the supplemental round will shrink, big time. Having the signing teams pick, your own pick and the supplemental will result in 3 picks in the top 35-40. That isn't bad at all.
I disagree with OGC on the draft picks not being worth anything to a certain extent, and am willing to argue about it off and on until I get him to admit that the 2004-5 draft pick punt fiascos were just that: big time errors in franchise building. He is a tough nut to crack, so it won't be easy, but I'm going to keep at it when I have the time.
I don't have anything to say bad about Melky, just to remember Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand. He seems like a good risk, at the right price. The Giants definitely have had trouble fielding a competent OF since... Moises Alou and Barry, and Steve Finleys corpse.
Agreed Shark.
DeleteGiants (West Coast teams) just have a tough time attracting what is left of FA hitting (now that teams mostly lock up young talent). So, yeah. If we can lock Melky on an overpay for 3 years, I'm there for that risk. It's hard to see any other realistic option. I don't want to wave off Melky for a pipe-dream of Hamilton.
Along those strategy lines, if hitting won't sign here, why not inexpensive mid-bottom of the rotation pitching. Guys like the Capuano or Harang that the Dodgers signed for cheap, for 2 years each. Can the Giants use the advantage of a pitchers park?
I had a mistake there on the draft picks. If a bottom 10 team signs the FA, their pick is protected, they would forfeit their 2ND round pick instead. It would be right after the supplemental, and this silly small market lottery thing Selig arranged. The CBA and the draft is definitely not clear cut, I'll say that.
DeleteI think its a great strategy to snag mid-bottom rotation guys cheap and use the NL West park factors. Or to use the park and staff as the snag to get future pitchers. in fact, I think that's why the Giants need to go all in on hitters in this draft. Use their 5-12 picks on pitchers, but go get the top 4 hitters they can find in our fair land.
Not sure, but I also think the team that loses a FA who they offered a $12-13 1 year contract to gets a first rounder and a supplemental rounder. Agree that there will be fewer supplemental rounders which makes them more valuable and makes second rounders more valuable too.
DeleteI would be OK with extending Melky in the range of 3yrs/$45 M to 5 yrs/$60 M. Gotta get at least a small discount for offering security though.
Frankly, if I was Melky's agent, I would strongly advise against signing an extension because I think Melky is going to get PAID in free agency and the risk for the remainder of this year is low. He seems like a perfect fit for the Dodgers and they are clearly going to be in a FA buying mode this offseason.
Thanks Shank. Just not enough of a draft/CBA geek to get into all the details. I do trust you, OGC and guys over at MCC (FLA-Giant, Rodger, ect.) who really get into the details. I know the general consensus seems to be that the compensation for losing FAs is not as good as it has been in the past. That mixed with the odds of hitting on a 3 to 5-tool player outside the top 10 picks guides me to make the claim that getting picks for Melky is not a good deal. It does beat getting nothing though.
DeleteAgree in general on the strategy of drafting for position players first with the Giants needs right now. Though as OGC points out, picking pitching talent first has better odds.
One thing I forgot on my Melky list. What if he leaves for the Bums, that would take a lot of garlic fries to get over.
Amen Kelly, to Hamilton being a pipe-dream of the first order - don't want Giants fans dying when he short-tosses balls up to us Bleacher Bums.
Shark, the odds of hitting that top prospect in the late first round and supplemental round is poor, BUT the odds than no chance at all. A 1st rounder and supplemental would treble the number of Giants picks from the 20th-50th range and treble their odds.
DeleteKennv - agreed. However, I don't want to lose Melky AND the years waiting for draft choices to pay off with good hitters, while we have the pitching now. That's why Melky is so valuable to sign for the next three years. By then the draft choices and rooks Pill/Belt/Panic/Brown/Oropesa/etc. hopefully will step up.
DeleteSee, Shankbone, you don't understand my position vs. my understanding of how things work. That is my fate in life, it seems, to see all angles but get ascribed to it just because I understand it.
DeleteFirst and foremost, I would never punt a pick. It is just asinine to do that. If you own a baseball team, to force a GM to make such a decision is not right, you should be in it to win it, within reason, and really, $1M for a draft pick should be pocket change for any owner. Any owner complaining about that should not be an owner, they should just sell their shares in the Giants, I seriously doubt the sincerity of any owner claiming to be a fan and forcing the GM to do that. That is why I've been advocating for new ownership since that time period, except for the Neukomian period.
However, I understand the move as a business risk trade off. The odds of such a pick manifesting itself into a good player is very low. Low enough that it becomes a viable business option as you make certain tradeoffs. I view this move to be on par with, say, trading in derivatives and complicated currency hedging operations, very bleeding edge. Yes, a team is playing with fire. But really, the odds are low enough that doing it once in a while does not really affect your farm system greatly. It literally is like buying a lottery ticket, albeit a $1M ticket that has about a 10% chance of paying off greatly for you.
But I would not do it myself. If I were owner, this situation would have never happened, and not only that, I would have invested in more coaching and instruction, as well as more scouting. That's the equivalent of R&D in tech industries, and companies that don't invest in R&D may as well climb in the coffin now.
It is not something I would advocate either, but given the situation that Sabean was put in, he did a rational thing, he got an OK asset in Tucker, who produced good value for the money, especially considering that the Giants had no viable OF prospect ready to battle for the position, all for a draft pick that most likely will never turn out. And it didn't, at least in terms of the Royals, and it didn't turn out for the next 10 or so picks either.
I still think that 3 years/$45M is way too much for Melky. Something around $8-10M is the most we should be paying per year.
I also still disagree that the team gives up their pick to sign a player, based on what I had read before. But I have to concede that Shankbone is right, read here at BA, the team does give it draft pick if not Top 10: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612723.html
OGC - Can't argue with anything up above, it all makes sense. I don't want to live in a world where I have to watch Michael Tucker sad sack his way around in the French Vanilla though, I'm irrational about that subject. The MLB language is not well written, I agreed with your analysis of what was there, but the summaries all point to getting 2 picks, and it does make sense for a team making a nine figure offer on an obviously good player to get 2 picks for their troubles.
DeleteI appreciate the position you have put down repeatedly, the business sense. I was poking fun at our long winded discussions more than anything else. I understand its not what you would do. Just a little Irish troublemaking on my part!
Anyone still think the Giants have good D?
ReplyDeleteWhy is Crawford suddenly bouncing everything to 1st?
I said it before, and I'll repeat it: Timmy is no longer an elite pitcher. He's a very/pretty good starter. But he's going to have to start doing some more of the little things that elite pitchers don't have to do. Like looking runners back to 2nd.
I've been a defender of Belt getting time. And that's the road we're going down, so, good. But, yeah, wow. That 3 pitch see ya' was just cringe-worthy. I don't know how/if he gets out of his own way. Nate too. I understand looking for a pitch and not getting it. But how does he stare at a strike three FB right down the chute?
There is a ton of talent on this team. But some really huge holes. There are kids everywhere in the infield. This may be a .500 club.
Doc, you keep saying the Giants are positioned for future success as much as any team in baseball. I'm not certain of that. While the farm is greatly improved, it does not seem like it will get us what we need most on the big club: Power. And, pitching seems a bit thin as well these days.
Yeah, I'll stick by that prognosis. We'll just have to see how it works out.
DeleteYes, it's a .500 club. That's what usually happens to a team when they lose their best hitter and pitcher (Sandoval and Lincecum). I expect both to return to normal at some point.
DeleteI still think that the Giants are positioned to be the Team of the 2010 Decade. People talk about power, but I think we are set for the future with Sandoval, Posey, Belt in the middle. Then with Brown and Panik on top, hopefully, our offense should be set for years.
The pitching is still great, even with Lincecum scuffling, that's how great the rotation is. I just covered the team's PQS on my blog. The team is scuffling now because we had a huge loss when Sandoval was DLed. Our margin is not so great when we lose our best hitter. Most teams are usually like that as well, they depend on their top hitters to do what they usually do. When they don't, you are screwed.