Spring Training Update: News and Notes

Pitchers and catchers reported a few days ago and "best shape of his life" stories are in full swing.  I am happy to see that Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores, Jordan Hicks and Tom Murphy are all, in fact, in the best shape of their lives, or at least some variation of the theme.  

Hello!  I bet you, like me, forgot Joel Peguero RHP was signed to a minor league deal in the Hot Stove League.  Bob Melvin just casually mentioned that he hit 101 MPH in throwing sessions.  OK, I'm not sure hitting 101 in the first throwing session of the spring is a good idea but wow!  I decided I better find out a bit more about Joel Peguero.  Fangraphs rates his FB as a 70(yes, I would say so) and his slider as a 55/60.  He put up this line in AA in the Tigers organization last season:  3-0, 3.14, 51.2 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1.70 GB/FB.  A name to keep an eye on.  My guy is still Enny Romero LHP.  You heard it here first!

For those of us anxious about the backup catcher role, Tom Murphy C is reportedly.....in the best shape of his life and the favorite for the role although Max Stassi and Sam Huff are also options.

For those of us worried about whether Jordan Hicks RHP can handle a SP load for longer than 2 months, he is reportedly "bulked up" from last season.  Hopefully that's good bulk and not Pablo Sandoval bulk.  

Lastly Bob Melvin his musing out loud about having LMWJ bat leadoff to take advantage of his elite OBP and move Jung Hoo Lee to third in the order as Melvin thinks there's more power in his tank.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #1 Bryce Eldridge

Bryce Eldridge 1B.  DOB:  10/20/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6' 7", 223 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 1

2024(A):  .263/.323/478, 14 2B, 10 HR, 2 SB, 7.4 BB%, 26.6 K%, 229 PA.

2024(A+):  .335/.442/.618, 11 HR, 3B, 12 HR, 16.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 215 PA.

2024(AA):  .270/.325/.459, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 7.5 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA.

2024(AAA):  .226/.314/.226, 11.4 BB%, 31.4 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AFL):  .293/.348/.512, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6.5 BB%, 34.8 K%, 46 PA.

In 2010 the Giants had a first base prospect who blew through 3 levels in his first pro season then hit .372 in the AFL.  The Giants were coming off winning a World Series but with a patchwork group of misfits and were in desperate need of more thump in the lineup.  He had a good spring and made the Opening Day roster.  To some observers he seemed awfully wide-eyed, struggled with big league pitching and got sent down which was an emotionally traumatic experience. He spent the rest of the season shuttling between AAA and the Giants.  He batted .225 at the MLB level but showed his power potential with 9 HR's in 209 PAs.  

I am sure Buster Posey remembers Brandon Belt's difficult rookie season and does not want to repeat that with Bryce Eldridge.  In a recent interview with Brodie Brazil, Bob Melvin backed that up saying Eldridge is a special hitter and a highly motivated prospect but he's just 20 years old and had a long whirlwind season playing at 4 levels plus the Arizona Fall League.  Melvin said he needs to slow down and build up AB's in the upper minors but when he arrives he will have that experience and confidence to be the special hitter he can be.

Although I think the Giants farm system is underrated and there are more good prospects in it than Eldridge, he is the shining star, The Franchise if you will.  He has tremendous size and raw power and a swing that allows him to control the strike zone despite his length.  He still needs some coaching and experience to polish up his defensive game at first base but has the athleticism to eventually be a plus defender there.  Absolute worst case scenario is he has more than enough bat to justify carrying him as a dedicated DH.  

It's hard to say when we will see him in a Giants uniform during the regular season.  It probably depends partly on how well LMWJ and Wilmer Flores remain healthy and productive as a first base platoon but we will likely see Bryce Eldridge in the majors at some point in 2025 even if it's a late-season call up.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #2 Grant McCray

Grant McCray OF.  DOB:  12/7/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 190 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 3($697 K).  

2024(AA):  .210/.313/.420, 14 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB, 11.5 BB%, 32.2 K%, 208 PA.

2024(AAA):  .272/.347/.471, 12 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 9.9 BB%, 25.4 K%, 213 PA.

2024(MLB):  .202/.238/.379, 3 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 5 SB, 4.6 BB%, 43.1 K%, 130 PA.

Most Giants prospect rankings don't list McCray but according to Baseball-Reference, McCray is still rookie eligible so I have him on my list.  When I make these lists it's always a challenge to weigh current performance against future ceiling and proximity to the majors against time for development.  McCray was rushed up to fill a smoking crater left in CF by Jung Hoo Lee's injury and he wasn't ready having played less than a season above A+ ball.  Having said that, he did stabilize an unstable position and showed flashes of his plus tools across the board.  He finished the season as the starting CF and is probably still #2 on the CF depth chart should Lee suffer another prolonged absence.  McCray obviously needs more seasoning in the upper minors but to my eye has louder tools than Lee and a higher future ceiling.  Tools and ceiling combined with presence on the 40-man roster and likely position on the CF depth chart are why I have him ranked #2.

Hot Stove League Update: Time To Douse The Embers

 Before we get started with our Hot Stove League Wrap, I just have to say that while other blogs post questions about superstitions and favorite baseball songs, we provide hard baseball content daily....and sometimes more.  Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Spring training camps open today with pitchers and catchers reporting.  We've already had our first "best shape of his life" story with Justin Verlander saying "This is for sure the best I've felt in last few years."  While there remain 7 of MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents on the market, it sure feels like Buster doused the embers in his hot stove, which means it's time to review his moves, or lack of moves, and give in opinion on his inaugural Hot Stove League Season since taking the reins as POBO of the Giants.  

It seems like many people rate Hot Stove League success solely by the star power of free agents signed regardless of cost and that goes back further than the Dodgers recent spending sprees.  To me, it's a lot more complicated than that.  If it's not, you and I could be POBO's if we just had the financial backing.  I am not saying an organization with obvious financial resources like the Giants should be always looking for the most cost-effective deal either.  You have to weigh short term with long term success in mind with a goal of building a consistent postseason contender without backing yourself into future corners.  I am not convinced the Dodgers have not mortgaged their future for current dominance but that remains to be seen and may take several years to determine.

Buster Posey inherited a position that was spinning its wheels.  Stars on short term, opt-out contracts always seemed to end up leaving for greener pastures.  Free agent busts hung around soaking up financial resources.  A whole shipload of intriguing prospects were rushed up and "graduated" yet none established themselves enough to be counted on.  Buster's goal in the Hot Stove League was to try to nail down some long term star players to build around while sorting out the "wheat from the chaff" among the post-prospects.  His mission is to establish stability and sustained winning defined by consistent postseason appearances and hopefully another championship or two in the process.

Buster got an early start on the Hot Stove League when he took over the Matt Chapman extension negotiations when he and ownership lost faith in FZ's ability to get the deal done.  When that happened you had to know FZ was as good as gone from the POBO chair.  That stabilized one position which was problematic since Pablo Sandoval left for free agency and thank God he did!  The other gaping hole with no good internal options to fill it was shortstop. There was really only one good shortstop option on the market, Willy Adames.  Yes, there was also Ha Seong Kim but he is coming off shoulder surgery with no guarantees when he will play again and no guarantees he will ever have the arm to play shortstop again.  We saw way too many of those kinds of players come and go during the FZ tenure.  Hard pass and that is obviously how Buster saw it too.  He went after Adames hard and got him signed just before the Winter Meetings at close to his MLBTR projected contract in a brutal buyer's market.  Who knows what FZ's approach would have been or who he might have signed.  I have a very hard time believing Adames would have signed if FZ was doing the negotiating.  

Although the Giants have a large stable of young hurlers on their 40-man roster they needed at least one more veteran starting pitcher to reduce the load on Logan Webb.  Hopes were high for bringing Corbin Burnes back to the bay area where he played college ball at St Mary's but it was not to be.  It sounds like Burnes really, really wanted to play close to his home in Arizona and Buster did not want to get locked into another long term deal, especially with a hated opt-out.  Buster pivoted to Justin Verlander, an aging superstar who may have something left in the tank.  Verlander may or may not be the guy to help Logan Webb take the pressure off the bullpen but there is almost no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  Whether you like or dislike the Verlander contract, it happened almost solely because Buster himself picked up the phone and talked Hall of Famer to Hall of Famer and used his persuasive powers to convince Verlander to sign.  That also would almost certainly have not happened for FZ.  

Perhaps the most surprising Hot Stove League move was trading away Taylor Rogers.  On the surface the goal of that trade was to offload salary but Rogers didn't exactly endear himself to Manager Bob Melvin and I get the distinct feeling Melvin and Buster see it as addition by subtraction for roster building.  The Giants(probably GM Zach Minasian) brought in a small army of lefty relievers on minor league deals.  It appears they believe at least one of those will end up being a better option than Rogers.  That's the kind of move that makes or breaks GM's and POBO's so we'll see.

At several points along the way, Buster said he was looking for another hitter.  He ended up signing Jake Lamb to a minor league deal which seems like it fell just a bit short of the goal there but it does likely leave more PA's open to help sort out the internal options.  The other area of concern is a back up catcher who can play enough to keep Patrick Bailey from wearing down in the second half again.  The catching market was thin but it's highly questionable whether Tom Murphy, Max Stassi or Sam Huff will prove to be the guy to give Bailey the consistent respites he needs.

While we have seen and heard endless debates about whether Buster could have or should have maxed out the payroll at the CBT threshold and he left a couple of minor holes unfilled, he did not make any glaring mistakes or sign any obvious "albatross" contracts.  He now has some space to sort out the young'uns and enough ammunition in reserve to make a deadline deal or two and maybe another anchor signing or two in Hot Stove Leagues to come.

With all that said, my final grade for Buster Posey in his rookie Hot Stove League season is a solid B.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #3 Trevor McDonald

Trevor McDonald RHP.  DOB:  2/26/2001.  6' 2", 180 lbs.  Drafted 2019 Round 11($800 K).

2024(ACL):  1-1, 3.52, 7.2 IP, 10.57 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 2.20 GB/FB.

2024(A+):  0-1, 4.86, 16.2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 1.73 GB/FB.

2024(AA):  0-2, 3.21, 14 IP, 5.14 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1.06 GB/FB.

2024(AAA):  2-3, 4.72, 47.2 IP, 6.80 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 2.06 GB/FB

2024(MILB):  3-7, 4.40, 86 IP, 8.16 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 1.78 GB/FB

2024(MLB):  0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 3.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 7.00 GB/FB.

McDonald has been on my radar since he was drafted as a Round 11 special bonus baby out of HS.  Sure enough, the Giants scraped together enough $$ to keep him from going to college.  He was added to the 40-man MLB roster in November 2023.  He pitched at multiple levels last season after starting the season late and having it interrupted by a series of minor injuries.  He has a sturdy pitcher's frame and throws a mid-90's sinker with a slider and changeup as secondary pitches.  Although he does not put up big strikeout numbers he makes up for that with dominant groundball numbers with GB ratios around 2.00.  He started his first MLB game at the end of last season and pitched 3 shutout innings.  He only had 1 K and 1 BB but induced 7 groundball outs.

You can argue he does not deserve to be ranked this high but I have long believed he was an underrated prospect in the Giants system and I give him a few extra points for making the 40-man and for the MLB appearance however brief.  He has two option years left and will likely start this season back at AAA where his goal will be to stay healthy, polish his game and wait for an opportunity(he has some competition with The Carsons for that call up though).

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #4 James Tibbs III

 James Tibbs III OF.  DOB:  10/1/2002.  B-L, T-L.  6' 0", 201 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 1 #13 overall.

2023(Cape Cod League):  .303/.390/.472, 6 2B, 6 HR, 3 SB, 12.2 BB%, 21.3 K%, 164 PA.

2024(College):  .363/.488/.777, 18 2B, 28 HR, 8 SB, 18.1 BB%, 11.6 K%, 320 PA.

2024(A):  .415/.429/.512, 4 2B, 2.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 42 PA.

2024(A+):  .134/.216/.239, 2 HR, 9.5 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.

Some analysts thought Tibbs was the best pure hitter in the 2024 draft class and he certainly tore it up for Buster Posey's old school, Florida St.  He hit well in the Cape Cod League to back it up.  He got off to blazing start for the A San Jose Giants in a small sample but then faceplanted after a promotion to A+.  I think a lot of people really downgrade him as soon as they see the BA in A+, but there's more to that story.  In his first 11 games for the Eugene Emeralds he went 1 for 41(BA= .024).  In his last 6 games he went 8 for 27(.296) with a double and 2 HR's.  

He should start 2024 back in A+ Eugene which is the appropriate level for his first full pro season and I think he will do just fine with a solid chance for midseason promotion to AA.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #5 Jhonny Level

Jhonny Level SS.  DOB:  3/29/2007.  B-S, T-R.  5' 10", 154 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent Jan 2024.

2024(DSL):  .275/.393/.517, 11 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 18 SB, 14.0 BB%, 16.7 K%, 215 PA.

International bonus baby at $997 K.  Per MLB scouting report, Level is a fast-twitch athlete with arm and quickness ot stick at SS.  On video he looks wiry strong with room to grow into his frame.  Potential to hit for both average and power from both sides of the plate.  Pro debut a success(simply avoiding injury is a success for Giants top international prospects but he did a lot more than just play.  The stat line shows power, speed, plate discipline and contact. Not much to quibble with there.  He should start the 2025 season in the ACL although I would not rule out a jump all the way to full-season A ball.  Exciting player to follow.