I started this post before the Tony Vitello announcement. Let's tackle get back to what is probably Buster Posey's biggest challenge in the upcoming Hot Stove League: The Starting Rotation.
Last year, the Giants had a logjam of young pitchers. Buster thought that gave him enough depth to limit his Hot Stove spending to Justin Verlander who he hoped could mentor the young pitchers to MLB success. By all accounts, Verlander was an excellent mentor but the young pitching depth proved to be a mirage and contributed to a mid-late season collapse that cost Manager Bob Melvin his job. If anything the logjam of young pitchers appears to be more jammed than last year and Buster will be well advised to go outside the organization to bolster the rotation.
MLB:
1. Logan Webb: Webb had the 5'th highest fWAR of MLB pitchers and improved both his K and BB rates from 2024. With his 4'th season in a row of over 190 IP, he is building up a lot of miles on that arm. How much longer can he keep that up?
2. Robbie Ray: After missing 2023 and most of 2024 recovering from surgery, Ray threw 182 innings last season and ran out of gas down the stretch. Should be at full strength for 2026.
3. Landen Roupp: The bad news is Roupp missed the last 6 weeks of the season with an injury. The good news is it was a bone bruise on his knee and he should be fully recovered by spring. He may have been close to his innings limit at the time of the injury anyway.
4. J. T. Brubaker?: The Giants need at least one veteran pitcher who can compete for a #5 SP or swing role. Brubaker is on the roster and arbitration eligible with a MLBTR projected salary of $1.3 M. Giants should try to get him signed before an arbitration hearing.
5. Trevor McDonald?: Of the prospects and post-prospects on the 40-man roster, McDonald had by far the most success but in a very small sample. He's a sinker-slider guy who relies on a high groundball ratio which may play better in MLB than the PCL due to ballpark elevations. He probably needs a better changeup if he's going to be a long term SP.
Kai-Wei Teng: A bit of an enigma. He makes some beautiful pitches but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.
Carson Seymour: Stuff is similar to McDonald. Big time sink with a high GB ratio. Has the size and stuff to be a MLB SP. Needs to find a little more consistency of command. Gave up some long taters.
Carson Whisenhunt: Nice 3-pitch mix. Changeup did not live up to reputation in his MLB stint. Can he gain confidence and command?
Blade Tidwell: Big hard-thrower from Tennessee. Stock is already pretty high but likely to go up if his college manager signs with the Giants.
Hayden Birdsong: What happened to him? He suddenly couldn't find the strike zone and continued to walk batters after a demotion to AAA. If he can get his ship righted has as high a ceiling as anyone on this list.
Keaton Winn: Probably more of a reliever now after a series of injuries.
Tristan Beck: Used as a reliever who could go multiple innings. Even closed a couple of games near the end of the season.
AAA:
John Michael Bertrand: Bertrand has made is a lot further in the organization than I thought when he was drafted as an older "pitchability" college graduate student.
Seth Lonsway: Command runs hot and cold. When it's on he can dominate.
Nick Zwack: Still hanging around from the Darin Ruf trade. Feels like more of a lefty reliever type but has been used more as a SP.
AA:
Jack Choate: Also has a lefty reliever profile but used more as a SP.
Shane Rademacher: Another undrafted free agents who came out of nowhere to move smartly up the organizational ladder.
Joe Whitman: Second round compensation pick in 2023. Disappointing season in AA which is generally a pitcher-friendly environment.
Trystan Vrieling: Came over from the Yankees in the Doval trade. Decent ratios negated by too many HR's.
Manuel Mercedes: Extreme groundball pitcher who gives up too much contact.
A+:
Josh Bostick: MLB frame. Dominates when command is consistent.
Dylan Carmouche: 6' 6" lefties don't grow on trees. Pitched really well but finished the season on the 60-day IL.
Greg Farone: Another 6' 6" lefty. A little less effective after promotion to A+.
Charlie McDaniel: Undrafted free agent. ERA ballooned after promotion to A+.
Cesar Perdomo: Smallish lefty with more inconsistent results in A+ ball. Dominant in some games.
Josh Wolf: High walk rate negated a strong K rate.
Hayden Wynja: Season lost to injury. 6' 9" lefties don't grow on trees.
A:
Jacob Bresnahan: Acquired from the Guardians in the Alex Cobb trade. Didn't turn 20 yo until June 27. I saw him pitch maybe his weakest start in Rancho Cucamonga on April 19 when he gave up 3 runs in 3 IP. At that point, his ERA hit 8.18. I obviously wasn't impressed. His next start he pitched 5 scoreless innings with 8 K's. He continued to gain traction as the season went along and finished up with 1.59 ERA in August and 5.1 scoreless frames with 9 K's in his September start. Obviously someone to watch going forward.
Luis De La Torre: Good command of a 3-pitch mix.
Hunter Dryden: Smallish for a SP but with a mid-90's FB that induces groundouts.
Ricardo Estrada: Left who pitched will after a late-season promotion from the ACL.
Gerelmi Maldonado: High 90's FB with a solid ground ball tendency. Still gets hit hard too often.
Keyner Martinez: 20 yo international prospect but in just his second professional season. Pitched to a 2.86 ERA withy 30 K's in 22 IP after promotion to A ball.
Niko Mazza: 8'th round draft pick in 2024. Pitched to a 2.22 ERA in A ball in 2025 which is a conservative placement for a college draftee.
Argenis Cayama: Age 18 season. 2.25 ERA in the ACL. Struggled after a promotion to A San Jose. Still young for level and has another chance in 2026. Considered one of the organization's top pitching prospects.
ACL:
Marlon Franco: 5.00 ERA but had 51 K's against 16 BB's in 54 IP. 5'th pro season after spending 4 years in the DSL.
Alexander Fuentes: Big body pitcher at 6' 7", 245 lbs. 2.62 ERA in 34.1 IP.
DSL:
Brayan Narvaez: Third DSL season at age 20. Was their best SP. Low K/low BB, High FB.
Alberto LaRoche: 2.11 ERA in second DSL season at age 19. High GB, low BB
Dilan Fernandez: Second DSL season at age 20. Modest GB tendency.
Carlos De La Rosa: 17 yo LHP who came over in Doval trade with Yankees. 51 K's, 10 BB's in 32.1 IP. Love this acquistion. Has a long way to go but might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants organization.
Randry De Leon: Third DSL season at age 19. High walk rate holds back his effectiveness.
Elkyns Villareal: Second DSL season at age 18. Strong GB ratio but give up too many walks.
Iverson Paulino: First DSL season at age 18. Numbers not great but size matters, 6' 6", 212 lbs.
Jose D. Gonzalez: First DSL season at age 19. low K, fairly low BB.
Luis Hernandez: Second DSL season at age 19. 2.00 GO/AO but too many walks.
Comment: Tremendous pitching depth throughout the system but leans more to quantity than ace level quality. If I had to pick out my top 3 in the upper levels I would say Trevor McDonald, Blade Tidwell and Carson Whisenhunt. In the lower minors I would take Josh Bostick, Jacob Bresnahan and Carlos De La Rosa.
No comments:
Post a Comment