Although there are still three exhibition games left before Opening Day and still undecided roster spots, the Giants completed a successful Cactus League season yesterday finishing 19-6, by far the best spring record in MLB and with a +54 run differential also best by far. While acknowledging the truth that spring records don't correlate with the regular season there are still impressions worth commenting on. So here's a list of my thoughts on the 2025 Giants Cactus League campaign:
The starting lineup is (mostly) set. Jung Hoo Lee CF may miss a few games at the start of the season with a nagging back tightness issue but the rest of the positional starting 8 is set and played together as a unit through most of the spring.
Competition for reserve/bench positions was fierce and as yet undecided. We've run through the options several times so we all know the players. Jerar Encarnacion's injury takes one player out of the running hopefully temporarily. If the Giants split the 26 man roster evenly between pitching and positional players there is room for 5 bench/DH spots. Wilmer Flores 1B/DH is a lock for one. Another has to be a back up catcher which comes down to Sam Huff vs Max Stassi who both had good springs. Huff might hold an edge since he is already on the 40-man roster and out of options. That leaves 3 positions to be decided between Luis Matos OF, Grant McCray OF, Brett Wisely IF, Casey Schmitt IF who are all on the 40-man roster. Christian Koss IF and Jake Lamb UT/DH may still be in the mix despite Lamb's reassignment to minor league camp. Koss had an excellent spring and may be the best SS defender in the mix. Lamb was brought in as potential lefty bat off the bench for what is becoming a strongly righthanded leaning roster.
The Giants finished the Cactus League #5 in MLB for Team BA, #3 for HR and OPS. Their 45 HR's were spread among 14 players led by Matt Chapman's 6.
The pitching looked really good and far more settled than in recent years. The top 4 starting rotation spots are set with with all 4 pitchers performing well to excellent. Jordan Hicks struggled early but his most recent start was exactly what you are looking for in a 4'th SP.
Competition for 5'th starter was fierce and remains undecided. Landen Roupp RHP and Hayden Birdsong RHP have both been close to unhittable. Birdsong may have the edge based on quality of stuff and a FB that sat at 98 MPH. Kyle Harrison LHP may eventually join the mix but got a late start due to an illness and needs time in extended spring training and/or AAA to build up his strength and pitch count.
Competition for the final 2 or 3 bullpen spots was also fierce and remains undecided. NRI Joel Peguero RHP in particular was a phenom sporting a FB that sat at 102 MPH. My goodness! And there still might not be room for him on the Opening Day roster!
Sabin Ceballos 3B is a phenom! Ceballos was not invited to MLB spring training but kept getting brought over for late inning replacement and split squad games. He certainly made the most of those opportunities going 9 for 15 with 2 doubles and a HR. Ceballos came to the Giants in the trade of Jorge Soler DH to the Braves last season. He had a sudden power breakout at A+ after the trade and certainly opened eyes with his spring training performance. He'll play in the minors this season but I'll be eagerly watching his batting lines.
Bryce Eldridge 1B excited everybody with a 455 ft HR early but then showed why he needs more seasoning with 8 K's in 12 PA's.
The recent free agent acquisitions performed well and look ready to lead the team: Matt Chapman 3B, Willy Adames SS, Jung Hoo Lee CF and Justin Verlander RHP. All except Lee look ready to start the season and be major contributors. Lee had a strong spring before missing time with back tightness which has gone on longer than hoped but an MRI was reportedly normal so he should be back soon.
Overall the team seems more settled and more confident than for many years with solid reason to hope they will be noticeably better this season and maybe surprise a few people and make the postseason.
It was a good camp with almost every player (kids, new kids and vets) putting their best foot forward in trying to compete and win jobs...And it just seems like a team this year, a team lead by the likes of Chapman and Adames (great addtion) and Webb, and not a collection of numbers and statistical possibilities..That, in itself, can be huge and hopefully help them rise above the weak spots
ReplyDeleteThat and the pitching staff...well, most of it..So impressed by both the vets and kids starters, as well as the RHRPs. Pitching can take you a long way and maybe gives Buster and GMZM time to work on the bad things. One of those bad things is the LHRP and I think Buster is doing the team a disservice by not having another competent LHRP. Hopefully in time he rectifies that.
And, yeah, I know i might be in the minority of one, but i still think OF/1B/DH is and MAY continue to be a disaster and only made worse by the normal occurrence of injuries like just happened.. But, I'll just leave that alone and hope the kids and vets can deliver and/or Buster makes an astute move.
All in all, looking forward to a much better season and entertainment then we saw the last few years under FZ.
SteveVA
If you take Ohtani and the DH position out of the equation, the Giants 8 positions stack up surprisingly well against the Dodgers in Fangraphs power rankings based on projections of their version of WAR. So I am not too worried about any position except DH. Now, I Ohtani is by far the best DH in all of MLB so I don't expect the Giants to match his production but they do need someone to step up, grab the role and put up some serious offensive numbers. I was hoping that person would be Jerar Encarnacion and it might eventually still be but Luis Matos is also a hitter who could break out big and I would not completely write off Marco Luciano just yet. As for 1B, I know LMWJ brings and atypical skill set to the plate for the position but it's a skill set that would have Billy Beane salivating and gives surprising value to the lineup. So if he and Flores remain healthy(I know, a big IF) the position is competitive with the rest of the league.
DeleteThis explains why Buster took a wait-and-see approach rather than making more signings. It looks like an interesting team, with surprising pitching depth at the major-league and upper-minor-league levels. My concerns are not major: I remain concerned about the lack of impact LH relief after Miller, and the lack of LH bats off the bench. I prefer Schmitt to Wisely generally but the latter's LH bat may give him the nod. And I wouldn't mind trading from the RH relief depth to pick up another LH reliever.
ReplyDeleteBuster appears to have also unleashed Melvin to manage traditional baseball -- focusing on contact with two outs and runners on, hit-and-run plays, maybe an occasional bunt, and crisper defense. Even the pitchers seem to have been encouraged to focus on throwing quality strikes and thereby extending their innings. All this promises to make for more interesting, more watchable games.
Side note about Ceballos and Keith Law, who joined Joe Rizzo to comment on the prospects game a week or so ago. Law was sort of vicious in his comments, saying Ceballos was "not a prospect," had a "bad body" and if I recall a "terrible swing," adopting an audibly dismissive tone. Law did concede that Ceballos had a strong arm but then said he's too slow. Looks to me like Ceballos can field 3B, does indeed have a strong arm, and seems to be able to lay the bat on the ball regardless of the aesthetics of his swing. I'll be rooting for him to overcome the criticism, and the Giants' seem genuinely interested in him. Best of all, he may have the most mellifluous name since Jesus Alou.
Keith Law is knowledgeable but gets paid to make bold statements. Ceballos still has a long way to go, sensational spring notwithstanding, but his performance last year after the trade and again this spring is certainly intriguing.
DeleteSean Hjelle was optioned so it looks like the bullpen 8 are Walker, Rogers, Doval, Miller, Trivino, Bivens, Rodriguez and Peguero. I love it! They need to find 40 man roster spots for Trivino and Peguero.
ReplyDelete1. Hjelle still had an option?
ReplyDelete2. I'm going to call it right now. Hicks won't be in the rotation at the Allstar break. He'll probably have earned the demotion within a month and management just won't have the guts to pull the trigger. However, it is Posey. So... Still, Birdsong and Roupp have each earned rotation slots. The sooner they get them, the better for the team.
Well this is the season for bold predictions. I guess you've made yours.
DeleteWow, Bivens over Hjelle … maybe Bivens is seen as being able to play a bit more readily both a long role as well as a set up role? Just really another statement about the increased competitiveness that Buster promised when he took over!
ReplyDeleteHejelle had some interesting supporting numbers (K's per BB's). But, really, Bivens earned it, right?
DeleteYes he did!
DeleteThe comment/prediction above about J. Hicks out of the rotation by the All-Star game seems to be wishful thinking that he will be gone and either Birdsong or Harrison will be given a chance to shine. I think Hicks will do fine, but may fade say in late August. I see nothing bad about letting Birdsong and Harrison continue to develop in Sacramento. They are still very young and both have issues they need to work on. My bold prediction is Jordan Hicks pitches 130 innings with a 3.50 ERA.
ReplyDeleteHarrison could be another candidate for extended spring training before reporting to sacramento
ReplyDelete