Hot Stove Update: Breaking News! Greinke to D'Backs!

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Zack Greinke has agreed to terms on a 6 year contract with RHP Zack Greinke.  The deal is reportedly pending a physical.  Wowzer!  THAT came up suddenly and out of left field!  Gotta think neither the Giants or Dodgers were willing to go beyond 5 years and the D'Backs  got him by adding on that 6'th year.  I actually think this may work in the Giants favor here.  While I really liked the idea of stealing Greinke away from the Dodgers, the contract came with a huge risk and put almost all of the Giants available budget into one player and an aging pitcher to boot, despite coming off one of the best seasons in MLB history.

If the Giants could not land Greinke, the next best thing is for him to sign with some team, any team, not named the Dodgers.  As I said in the Comments of the last post, here are the good things this does for the Giants:  1.  The Giants do not have the enormous risk of that contract.  2.  Greinke is a lot less scary wearing a D'Backs uni than a Dodgers uni.  3.  The Giants don't have to face him any more often than they did with him in LA.  4.  It not only takes him away from the Dodgers, but now they have to face him 5 or 6 times per year themselves.

The Giants can now spread the risk of that contract over 2 or 3 players, although they will still have to compete with the Dodgers for available FA's now that the Dodgers are left with just one ace and a bunch of question marks in their rotation.  The Giants fallback plan is said to be Leake and Samardzija. I'm good with Leake, but not thrilled at the idea of losing a draft pick for Samardzija.  If that is their plan, they better get it done pronto because the dominoes are going to fall fast now.

Down on the Farm: BA's Top 10 Giants Prospects

Well, the interminable wait for Zack Greinke to make up his mind drags on.  I'll just throw this out there:  If you really believe he is enough of a difference maker to pay him $35 M per year for 5 years, is it really that much more of a risk to make it 6 years?  I mean, after awhile, risk stops having meaning in these situations.

So, BA's top 10 Giants prospects comes out just in time to break up the monotony.  Here it is:

1.  Christian Arroyo

2.  Tyler Beede

3.  Phil Bickford

4.  Lucious Fox

5.  Chris Shaw

6.  Sam Coonrod

7.  Aramis Garcia

8.  Clayton Blackburn

9.  Jarrett Parker

10.  Adalberto Mejia

My own top 6 right now, although it could change, is Arroyo, Beede, Bickford, Blackburn, Fox and Big Mac, but I'm not sure of the exact order.  I can't really argue with Shaw in the top 5.  I really, really like his bat, but I'm not sure why they picked Coonrod's name out of a hat and left the Johnsons's, who throw just as hard, and did it at higher levels.  Putting Parker in the top 10 while leaving Big Mac off is pretty egregious too.  I guess the take home message can be that a system in which Big Mac can't crack the top 10 is a darn good system!

In the chat, JJ Cooper actually had some really good things to say about the Giants current farm system and about their scouting, development and coaching.  A couple of knuckleheads, probably MCC readers/commenters, kept trying to get him to say it's either the worst system in baseball or bottom 5.  He kept insisting it is at least middle of the pack and probably underrated due to the Giants recent track record of developing hitters.

Like me, Cooper seems to think that Beede's slide in AA was mostly due to fatigue from his first exposure to the minor league grind.  He also reiterated that the lower velocity and lower K's is due to the switch to the 2-seam FB and trying to improve command which worked out great until he got fatigued.

Fantasy Focus: 2016 Impact Rookies- Trea Turner

Trea Turner, SS.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  6/30/1993.  6'1", 175 lbs.  2015 MLB:  .225/.295/.325, 1 HR, 2 SB, 44 PA.  AAA:  .314/.353/.341, 3 HR, 14 SB, 205 PA.

Turner is a former first round draft pick of the San Diego Padres, traded to the Nationals as a PTBNL before he was eligible to be traded in the 3 team deal that brought Wil Myers to the Padres.  With Ian Desmond coming off a down season and now a FA, Turner is the man at SS for the Nationals now.  He will likely be the full time starter from Opening Day 2016.  I would not expect too much fantasy value from him as I expect him to have his offensive struggles in his first full MLB season, but double digit HR's and Steals are both possible and he may be draftable at the back end of leagues as small as 10 teams.

A Tough Day in the Inland Empire

Greetings to all you faithful Giants fans who read this blog every day and write your comments.  I appreciate you all.  Today was a tough day in the Inland Empire of Southern California.  Yet another mass shooting took place at the Inland Regional Center in San Bernardino.  There was a subsequent shootout with the perpetrators on the streets of Redlands.  As I write this, I can hear a helicopter hovering and circling over an apartment just about 2 blocks from my house that the police and FBI are searching.

My family and I are all safe and sound.  As far as I know, all of our friends and colleagues are also safe.  My wife knows and works with many people who work out of the Regional Center.  At this time, we do not know if any of those acquaintances are among the victims of the shootings.

This is not a political blog and I do not intend to turn it into one.  Due to the proximity of this event, I wish to make the following statement:

We are currently experiencing an unprecedented epidemic of mass shootings in this country.  As with most things in life, I believe the causes are multifactorial and there is probably not one simple solution.  I do know that we cannot continue to simply grieve, wring our hands and hold vigils.  It will take a lot of hard work and it will probably take time, but we have to start turning this around and we need to start now.  Progress will likely require both better enforcement of current gun laws and also changes to current gun laws.  It will likely require changes in law enforcement and protection of private  and government places of business as well as public events.  It will likely require changes in mental health services and privacy laws as they pertain to mental health.  It will likely require a hard look at, and changes in, certain types of entertainment.  It will also require more civility in our political discourse.

Enough is enough!  The time for action is now!

Thank you all for being part of this community and for your support.

I will publish thoughtful comments on this post.

Dr B

Hot Stove Update: Price to the BoSox

David Price has reportedly agreed to the largest contract ever given a pitcher in MLB.  The Boston Red Sox were reported to be ready to outbid everybody else for Price and they did just that for 7 years/$217 M.  The deal reunites Price and new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, who once traded for Price as GM of the Detroit Tigers.  The deal also keeps Price in the AL which is what it felt like was going to happen all along  I don't think there is any real point in discussing contract value.  Contract value is only pertinent if the contract somehow prevents the team from signing a player they want in the future.  This contract comes on the heels of two busted contracts from last offseason, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.  Those certainly did not slow down the Red Sox pursuit of David Price and Price's contract is unlikely to prevent the addition of other players in the future.  Price gives Boston what they did not have last year, an ace pitcher.  Of course, adding an ace pitcher, even if he lives up to expectations, is no guarantee of team success.  Just ask the Washington Nationals!

The deal also leaves Zack Greinke as the lone top tier pitcher left on the market.  The bidding seems to be down to the Giants and Dodgers with both teams demanding a decision.  Expect an announcement this week, maybe as early as tomorrow.  My feeling is the Dodgers have the advantage here.  I have always believed that to land either Greinke or Price, for different reasons the Giants would have to come in with blow-away offer at least $20-30 M above the rest of the market.  With Price, it would be to get him out of his comfort zone in the AL.  For Greinke, it would be to get him away from the Dodgers.  The problem is, I am not sure it is even possible to outbid the Dodgers like that!  For that reason, I am going at least 70/30 that Greinke ends up back with the Dodgers.  Of course it is possible that the Giants don't really want to spend what it would take to land Greinke and just want to drive up his price as high as possible for their downstate rivals, but if that is the case, it is setting up yet another scenario where they come in second in the bidding for a top free agent.  At some point, they have to land somebody or suffer a major credibility loss.

Speaking of Zack Greinke, a strange story has emerged about Zack in the Dodgers clubhouse.  The story is recorded in a book released this past summer about the Dodgers entitled The Best Team Money Can Buy.  It seems that Don Mattingly called a team meeting during a losing streak in 2013.  Now Greinke is, by all accounts, a guy who marches to a different drummer.  He apparently has very little to say to his teammates, ever.  So, when he asked for the floor in the team meeting, everybody wanted to know what he had to say.  As everybody leaned in, Greinke spoke:  "Some of you guys are doing the number 2 and not washing your hands.  It's not good!  I noticed it happening earlier today.  So, if you guys could just be better about it, that would be great."  WTF?  The other players reportedly had no idea whether he was serious or not.  They finally concluded that he was, which made it twice as funny!
Ironically, it loosened up the clubhouse and the Dodgers clinched the NL West 2 games later.

Here's the question:  Does this story make you more or less eager for the Giants to sign Greinke, or does it not affect your opinion?

Down on the Farm: Community Giants Top Prospect Ranking

Hey team!  I've drawn up a very rough top tier of Giants prospects and would like some input on how YOU would rank them.  Here we go(I've listed them in alphabetical order of last name):

Christian Arroyo
Tyler Beede
Phil Bickford
Clayton Blackburn
Lucious Fox
Mac Williamson

Rank 'em best to worst in Comments.  Explanations are appreciated.  Would you add anyone to the list?  Take any out?

 Thanks everybody!

Hot Stove Update: Zimmermann to Tigers

The Detroit Tigers reportedly agreed to terms today on a free agent contract with RHP Jordan Zimmermann.  The deal has yet to be confirmed by the Tigers.  The price tag is pegged at 5 years/$110 M for an AAV of $22 M.  Zimmermann has been a model of consistency for the past 5 seasons for the Washington Nationals, although 2014 was his best season and 2015 his least good(although it was still quite good).  His cumulative line over that time frame is plus 7 games in 2010, is 70-50, 3.32, 1094 IP, 7.43 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 with a cumulative fWAR of 20.3.  His fWAR per season has ranged from 3.0 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2014.  His FB velocity has belt steady at 93.0 MPH last year compared to a career average of 93.5.

The Tigers most likely decided they were not in contention for either to the top tier players, David Price or Zack Greinke so grabbed Zimm while the rest of MLB was focused on the lead group which was probably a smart strategy.  Still, he did not come cheaply.  Detroit is paying for an anticipated production of about 3.5 fWAR per season going forward which is just under his career average, although he has topped it just once so far in his career.

In addition, the Tigers take on at least a perceived risk of a long term commitment to a pitcher with a history of Tommy John surgery.  Zimmermann is entering a window where historically, the incidence of recurrent UCL tears starts to dramatically increase.  On top of that, successful recovery rates for second TJ surgeries is notoriously poor.  Whereas a first time UCL tear would likely result in just one lost year out of the 5 in the contract, a second time tear likely busts the remainder of the contract.

So, how does Zimmermann's signing impact the Giants?  More than one analyst predicted the Giants as the team signing him and he certainly had significant support among Giants fans.  I have always been lukewarm at best on him due to the TJ issue which I think is bigger than it's being given credit for.  The signing also likely creates a rough benchmark for both higher and lower rated players in the free agent market.  I would probably slot Zimmermann between Johnny Cueto above and Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija below in the FA pitcher hierarchy with the 5/$110 representing an absolute floor for Cueto and an absolute ceiling for Leake and Samardzija.

It also takes away one fallback option should the Giants fail or give up their pursuit of one of the top tier pitchers, Price or Greinke.  Leake is on record as saying he wants to choose a team and sign quickly.  If somebody jumps up and convinces Leake to sign with them, who are the Giants left to choose from if they they strike out on Price/Greinke.  So, Zimmermann's signing puts some pressure on the Giants to put their final, best offers up for the top tier guys and move on quickly if they get rejected.