Hey everybody! Are you as stoked for this as I am?
Love the Kingston Trio! Great version of the National Anthem.
I don't think there's anybody we would rather have starting this game than Vogey, for better or worse. He's the guy we want out there.
2 of the 3 Fox panelists are picking the Giants. I figure that's the kiss of death. Those guys are never right! Karros couldn't bring himself to pick the Giants. Has he ever?
Picking any team to win one game is stupid anyway. Unless Verlander is pitching. That's about as close to a mortal lock as anything right now.
OK, here we go. Vogey K's the first batter!
Holliday is sitting this one out. Maybe his back is hurting or maybe he thinks Vogey remembers the slide?
Beautiful changeup to K Beltran. Grab some pine, Meat!
And Vogey strikes out the side! Did I mention that Matt Carpenter looks a lot like Brian Wilson?
So far, Chris Carpenter is having trouble with is command. Panda takes it to the wall in CF. Come on, Buster!
At least they get a run. First run in this game is huge.
Hammer curve to K Freese there. We've seen a great changeup and a hammer curve already. I like it!
And there's an elevated FB to get Kozma. 5 K's in 2 IP. Go Giants!
Come on Belt. Get that bat off your shoulder! That's what I'm talkin' 'bout!
And the butcher boy play works! LOL!
Yes, Scooter! Carpenter is obviously not 100%, but Giants are taking advantage. 4 run lead with the way Vogey is pitching looks good.
Seeing eye single for Sandoval. 2 for 2 tonight. He's red hot.
Cards are not a good fielding team. Their fielding or lack thereof has hurt them terribly in this series.
Now I'm not sure who Vogey struck out with the high heater. Must have been Descalso, but I thought it was a RH batter.
Vogey is painting the corners on Craig. If you are going to stay inside, make sure you miss off the plate there, Vogey! THAT's what I'm talkin' 'bout!
Vogey is under 60 pitches through 4 despite 7 K's.
Descalso breaks up the no-hitter. Vogey is so dialed in right now, I think he could take on Verlander!
Come on Vogey. Forget the no-no. You'll get one someday!
OK, Vogey. Let's put the hammer down on this one.
Vogey might be tiring a bit here. Hope Bochy and Rags are watching him closely.
Whew! Molina hit that one pretty hard too. Can't let this Cardinals team start thinking they can get back in it. They are relentless if they smell victory.
9 outs to go!
Vogey puts the hammer down! 6 outs to go.
Love the GBA singer! LOL!
3 outs to go! With a 4 run lead, do you try to let Casilla finish it and save Romo for tomorrow?
It's a bit late to be bringing in Eyechart. Matheny should have had him face Crawford in the 4'th Friday night.
Defense has been a factor in this series.
WTF, Brian Wilson?
And Eyechart walks Crawford!
Riot get an RBI! Lead back to 5. Romo Time!
They did it! We're back even and it's a 1 game series. Do or die. For better or worse, Matt Cain is the guy you want out there for it.
What an effort by Vogelsong! The legend continues to grow! The movie ending keeps getting better!
Thanks for following everybody. Full Game Wrap later. I'll probably miss the first few innings tomorrow due to work but I'll start live blogging as soon as I get home.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Thoughts on Barry Zito NLCS Game 5 Performance
Barry Zito's performance in NLCS Game 5 has produced page after page of published text marveling at how surprising and unexpected this performance was. While it would be foolish to expect a performance like that from Zito, it should not have been surprising.
OGC has approached this through his PQS research on his blog, Obsessive Giants Compulsive so I'm not the first person to come up with this notion, but I'd like to share some data and thoughts that came to me while researching a comment I posted to a blog post by Chris Quick over on Bay City Ball.
Barry Zito had 17 Quality Starts during the 2012 regular season. He had two more starts where he went 5 or more innings and allowed just 2 runs which is a near-QS(he had just one start where he went at least 6 IP and allowed 4 runs which is the other kind of near-QS). In those 19 starts he pitched a total of 126.2 IP and allowed 29 runs for an ERA of 1.99. In his other 13 starts(including the near-QS in which he allowed 4 ER), he pitched 57.2 IP, and allowed 56 ER for an ERA of just under 9.00. He had 5 starts over the course of the season where he pitched 6 innings or more while allowing 0 ER. In short, Barry Zito was either very good or he was very bad.
Most analysts, when they talk about how bad Barry Zito is, look at his season stat lines. It doesn't matter what metric you use, ERA, FIP, SIERA, WAR, WPA, he comes out looking like a replacement pitcher because the badness of the bad Zito starts overwhelm the goodness of his good starts. In reality, very few, if any, replacement pitchers would give you 19 starts with an ERA of 1.99. Ironically, when all is said and done and you look at all possible stats, Barry Zito's W-L is probably the most accurate measure of his value to the team in 2012.
It really was not a question of whether Barry Zito was capable of the performance we saw in NLCS Game 5. He had 5 comparable starts during the regular season, so clearly he was capable. The question was whether the good Barry or the bad Barry would show up. If it was the good Barry who had a 1.99 ERA in 19 good starts then yes, you could almost expect him to pitch that kind of game. The problem, and what most of us also quite reasonably thought was possible was that the bad Zito would show up and the Giants would be blown out by the 3'rd inning.
In summary, while no reasonable person would dare expect Barry Zito to pitch the way he did in NLCS Game 5, nobody should have been surprised by it either.
OGC has approached this through his PQS research on his blog, Obsessive Giants Compulsive so I'm not the first person to come up with this notion, but I'd like to share some data and thoughts that came to me while researching a comment I posted to a blog post by Chris Quick over on Bay City Ball.
Barry Zito had 17 Quality Starts during the 2012 regular season. He had two more starts where he went 5 or more innings and allowed just 2 runs which is a near-QS(he had just one start where he went at least 6 IP and allowed 4 runs which is the other kind of near-QS). In those 19 starts he pitched a total of 126.2 IP and allowed 29 runs for an ERA of 1.99. In his other 13 starts(including the near-QS in which he allowed 4 ER), he pitched 57.2 IP, and allowed 56 ER for an ERA of just under 9.00. He had 5 starts over the course of the season where he pitched 6 innings or more while allowing 0 ER. In short, Barry Zito was either very good or he was very bad.
Most analysts, when they talk about how bad Barry Zito is, look at his season stat lines. It doesn't matter what metric you use, ERA, FIP, SIERA, WAR, WPA, he comes out looking like a replacement pitcher because the badness of the bad Zito starts overwhelm the goodness of his good starts. In reality, very few, if any, replacement pitchers would give you 19 starts with an ERA of 1.99. Ironically, when all is said and done and you look at all possible stats, Barry Zito's W-L is probably the most accurate measure of his value to the team in 2012.
It really was not a question of whether Barry Zito was capable of the performance we saw in NLCS Game 5. He had 5 comparable starts during the regular season, so clearly he was capable. The question was whether the good Barry or the bad Barry would show up. If it was the good Barry who had a 1.99 ERA in 19 good starts then yes, you could almost expect him to pitch that kind of game. The problem, and what most of us also quite reasonably thought was possible was that the bad Zito would show up and the Giants would be blown out by the 3'rd inning.
In summary, while no reasonable person would dare expect Barry Zito to pitch the way he did in NLCS Game 5, nobody should have been surprised by it either.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
AFL Report: 10/20/2012
Scottsdale Scorpions downed the Salt River Rafters 5-3:
Joe Panik(SS)- 3 for 3, BB, SB(2). BA- .240.
Chris Dominguez(LF)- 1 for 4. BA= .313.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- 0 for 2, BB. BA= .235.
Chris Gloor(LHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 3.00.
Joe Panik(SS)- 3 for 3, BB, SB(2). BA- .240.
Chris Dominguez(LF)- 1 for 4. BA= .313.
Ricky Oropesa(1B)- 0 for 2, BB. BA= .235.
Chris Gloor(LHP)- 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 3.00.
Hot Stove Update: 3 Way Trade
Trader Billy Beane and the Oakland A's got the 2013 hot stove fired up with the postseason from 2012 still in full swing. The A's sent SS Cliff Pennington and prospect Yordy Cabrera to the D'Backs for CF Chris B. Young. The D'Backs then shipped Cabrera to the Marlins for RHP Heath Bell in what was technically a separate deal. The D'Backs sent $500 K to the A's to pay a small part of Young's salary while the Marlins sent about $8 M to the D'Backs to cover part of the $21 M remaining on Bell's salary. This one is a bit of a head scratcher in many ways so let's try to break it down:
The A's got a superior defensive CF with power coming off a year that was limited by injuries. Young seems to have been around forever, but he's only 29 yo. He rang up fWAR's of 4.6 in both 2010 and 2011 due to a combination of power, speed and defense. What I find interesting is that he put up a fWAR of 2.8 in 363 PA in 2012 which projects to pretty darn close to the 4.6 he put up in the previous 2 seasons over a full season's worth of PA's. That is more than the A's platoon of Jonny Gomes and Seth Smith put up this year. Young played for A's manager Bob Melvin in Arizona and had a good relationship with him and that could be a factor in the trade too. All in all, a nice buy low for Trader Billy. He can jettison the Gomes/Smith platoon and go with a superior defensive OF of Young, Cespedes and Reddick with Coco Crisp as the 4'th OF.
The A's did not need Cliff Pennington, who is approximately a league average SS coming off a down year at the plate, because they have Stephen Drew, who they acquired from the same D'Backs in a mid-season trade this year. Yordy Cabrera was a second round draft pick in 2010 out of HS who is already 22 yo. He has some power potential but will have to pick up the pace if he wants to make it to the majors. Just looking at his numbers and age, he reminds me an awful lot of Wendell Fairley in the Giants system.
The D'Backs apparently decided to commit to Adam Eaton as their CF of the present and future which made Young expendable. They also apparently decided to invest the savings of that trade-off in their bullpen. Eaton is a scrappy young guy who can get on base a lot from a leadoff spot in the lineup, but who has little pop and is unlikely to have anywhere's near the WAR value of Chris Young.
Heath Bell was part of the Marlins' spending spree last offseason as they tried to jump start their future in their new stadium. That went badly wrong as Bell became a gas can out of the bullpen and spent most of the season being greeted with thunderous booing when he would come into a game. He was reportedly unhappy that he never regained his closer role which makes his acquisition by the D'Backs a bit puzzling as they have an established closer in JJ Putz who they just exercised their option on for 2013. The D'Backs could still have more moves to make but for now appear to be aiming for a 3-headed monster of David Hernandez, Bell and Putz for the last 3 innings of games they are leading after 6 which makes you wonder how Bell is going to like that if he was unhappy with a setup role in Miami.
Miami gets to cut its losses with Bell's contract by quite a bit and gets a lottery ticket on the high risk/reward prospect in Cabrera who is a local kid to boot.
I'll give modest thumbs up to the A's and Marlins for upgrading their OF and dumping an albatross respectively and a thumbs down to the D'Backs who take on salary and possibly a headache without an obvious upgrade and a possible downgrade in personnel.
PS-two more thoughts: 1. D'Backs GM Kevin Towers was Bell's GM in San Diego. 2. Bruce Bochy was Bell's Manager in San Diego. With the Giants possibly being in the market for a top of the line closer this offseason, Towers may have been heading that off at the pass as part of his motivation.
The A's got a superior defensive CF with power coming off a year that was limited by injuries. Young seems to have been around forever, but he's only 29 yo. He rang up fWAR's of 4.6 in both 2010 and 2011 due to a combination of power, speed and defense. What I find interesting is that he put up a fWAR of 2.8 in 363 PA in 2012 which projects to pretty darn close to the 4.6 he put up in the previous 2 seasons over a full season's worth of PA's. That is more than the A's platoon of Jonny Gomes and Seth Smith put up this year. Young played for A's manager Bob Melvin in Arizona and had a good relationship with him and that could be a factor in the trade too. All in all, a nice buy low for Trader Billy. He can jettison the Gomes/Smith platoon and go with a superior defensive OF of Young, Cespedes and Reddick with Coco Crisp as the 4'th OF.
The A's did not need Cliff Pennington, who is approximately a league average SS coming off a down year at the plate, because they have Stephen Drew, who they acquired from the same D'Backs in a mid-season trade this year. Yordy Cabrera was a second round draft pick in 2010 out of HS who is already 22 yo. He has some power potential but will have to pick up the pace if he wants to make it to the majors. Just looking at his numbers and age, he reminds me an awful lot of Wendell Fairley in the Giants system.
The D'Backs apparently decided to commit to Adam Eaton as their CF of the present and future which made Young expendable. They also apparently decided to invest the savings of that trade-off in their bullpen. Eaton is a scrappy young guy who can get on base a lot from a leadoff spot in the lineup, but who has little pop and is unlikely to have anywhere's near the WAR value of Chris Young.
Heath Bell was part of the Marlins' spending spree last offseason as they tried to jump start their future in their new stadium. That went badly wrong as Bell became a gas can out of the bullpen and spent most of the season being greeted with thunderous booing when he would come into a game. He was reportedly unhappy that he never regained his closer role which makes his acquisition by the D'Backs a bit puzzling as they have an established closer in JJ Putz who they just exercised their option on for 2013. The D'Backs could still have more moves to make but for now appear to be aiming for a 3-headed monster of David Hernandez, Bell and Putz for the last 3 innings of games they are leading after 6 which makes you wonder how Bell is going to like that if he was unhappy with a setup role in Miami.
Miami gets to cut its losses with Bell's contract by quite a bit and gets a lottery ticket on the high risk/reward prospect in Cabrera who is a local kid to boot.
I'll give modest thumbs up to the A's and Marlins for upgrading their OF and dumping an albatross respectively and a thumbs down to the D'Backs who take on salary and possibly a headache without an obvious upgrade and a possible downgrade in personnel.
PS-two more thoughts: 1. D'Backs GM Kevin Towers was Bell's GM in San Diego. 2. Bruce Bochy was Bell's Manager in San Diego. With the Giants possibly being in the market for a top of the line closer this offseason, Towers may have been heading that off at the pass as part of his motivation.
AFL Report: 10/19/2012
The Scottsdale Scorpions edged the Salt River Rafters 1-0:
Gary Brown(LF)- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B. BA= .280.
Joe Panik(SS)- 1 for 3, 3B, BB. BA= .136.
Dan Runzler(LHP)- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 0.00.
Heath Hembree(RHP)- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 0.00.
In the 10/18/2012 game, Ricky Oropesa went 0 for 3 with a BB as the only Giants player to appear in an 8-3 Scorpions win over the Mesa Solar Sox. Ricky is hitting .267.
Gary Brown(LF)- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B. BA= .280.
Joe Panik(SS)- 1 for 3, 3B, BB. BA= .136.
Dan Runzler(LHP)- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 0.00.
Heath Hembree(RHP)- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 0.00.
In the 10/18/2012 game, Ricky Oropesa went 0 for 3 with a BB as the only Giants player to appear in an 8-3 Scorpions win over the Mesa Solar Sox. Ricky is hitting .267.
Game Wrap NLCS Game 5: Giants 5 Cardinals 0
The Giants got what might be the best game of Barry Zito's career and once again scored 4 runs in the 4'th inning to avoid elimination from the postseason. Key Lines:
Pablo Sandoval- 2 for 4, HR. BA= .286. Pablo added a nice grab of a line drive down the 3B line on defense. Pablo is having a strong postseason and hit his second dinger in 2 games in this one.
Gregor Blanco- 0 for 2, 2 BB. BA= .133. In the pivotal 4'th inning, Lynn pitched around Blanco to face Crawford which could not have been a bigger mistake.
Brandon Crawford- 1 for 4. BA= .235. After looking very bad on a K in the 3'rd inning, Crawford probably seemed like a gimme to Lance Lynn who was battling to get out of the 4'th inning after throwing the ball away on an attempted DP at 2B. Instead, Crawford patiently worked the count to 3-2. Lynn might have gotten a bit impatient and tried to surprise him with a curveball that Crawford just stroked up the middle for a 2 run single. I kind of knew the Giants were going to win at that point. Big, big basehit there for the Crawman. One more thought: Matheny may have made a managerial blunder here by underestimating Crawford and not bringing in Eyechart to face him and make sure he got out of the inning with a 1-0 deficit. Might not have mattered anyway as the 1-0 lead may well have stood up, but a 1-0 deficit is a whole lot different than 4-0.
Barry Zito- 1 for 2. BA= .500. Zito laid down a surprise bunt single for a RBI to tack on an insurance run in the 4 run 4'th.
Barry Zito- 7.2 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 0.00. I figured we might be in for a special Zito start when he pitched his way out of a jam in the 2'nd inning. First of all, it was a beautiful piece of pitching. Secondly, If Zito can make it past the first two innings without getting bombed, he usually settles down pretty good. He dominated after that. He was able to locate his 84 MPH fastball, had a nice sharp curve and a very good changeup that was tailing down and away from RH batters. Very nice work from the Z-man.
The win narrows the Giants deficit in the NLCS to 3 games to 2. They now come back to SF for Game 6 and hopefully Game 7. Ryan Vogelsong faced Chris Carpenter in Game 6 on Sunday evening with Matt Cain set for Game 7 if the Giants win Game 6. Gotta feel there's a pretty good chance of that happening right now.
Go Giants!
Pablo Sandoval- 2 for 4, HR. BA= .286. Pablo added a nice grab of a line drive down the 3B line on defense. Pablo is having a strong postseason and hit his second dinger in 2 games in this one.
Gregor Blanco- 0 for 2, 2 BB. BA= .133. In the pivotal 4'th inning, Lynn pitched around Blanco to face Crawford which could not have been a bigger mistake.
Brandon Crawford- 1 for 4. BA= .235. After looking very bad on a K in the 3'rd inning, Crawford probably seemed like a gimme to Lance Lynn who was battling to get out of the 4'th inning after throwing the ball away on an attempted DP at 2B. Instead, Crawford patiently worked the count to 3-2. Lynn might have gotten a bit impatient and tried to surprise him with a curveball that Crawford just stroked up the middle for a 2 run single. I kind of knew the Giants were going to win at that point. Big, big basehit there for the Crawman. One more thought: Matheny may have made a managerial blunder here by underestimating Crawford and not bringing in Eyechart to face him and make sure he got out of the inning with a 1-0 deficit. Might not have mattered anyway as the 1-0 lead may well have stood up, but a 1-0 deficit is a whole lot different than 4-0.
Barry Zito- 1 for 2. BA= .500. Zito laid down a surprise bunt single for a RBI to tack on an insurance run in the 4 run 4'th.
Barry Zito- 7.2 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 0.00. I figured we might be in for a special Zito start when he pitched his way out of a jam in the 2'nd inning. First of all, it was a beautiful piece of pitching. Secondly, If Zito can make it past the first two innings without getting bombed, he usually settles down pretty good. He dominated after that. He was able to locate his 84 MPH fastball, had a nice sharp curve and a very good changeup that was tailing down and away from RH batters. Very nice work from the Z-man.
The win narrows the Giants deficit in the NLCS to 3 games to 2. They now come back to SF for Game 6 and hopefully Game 7. Ryan Vogelsong faced Chris Carpenter in Game 6 on Sunday evening with Matt Cain set for Game 7 if the Giants win Game 6. Gotta feel there's a pretty good chance of that happening right now.
Go Giants!
Friday, October 19, 2012
Game Wrap NLCS Game 4: Cardinals 8 Giants 3
The Cardinals dominated this one in all phases of the game as Tim Lincecum struggled in his return to a starting assignment. Key Lines:
Marco Scutaro(.471) and Angel Pagan(.333)- 4 for 8, 2B, 3B. Once again the top of the lineup came through. The rest of the lineup had just two hits, although they were both dingers.
Pablo Sandoval- 1 for 4, HR. BA= .235.
Hector Sanchez- 0 for 4, 3 K's. I like Hector Sanchez, but even I would not put him in the 5 hole in a playoff game although I undertand Bochy's frustration with Pence in that slot and the Giants don't have a lot of other options.
Hunter Pence- 1 for 4, HR. BA= .133. The .133 tells the sad story of this series for the Giants offense.
Tim Lincecum- 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 5.40. Timmy was out of sync in his first 15 pitches and probably does not have the stamina to go more than 3 or 4 innings right now. Could he be next year's closer? That would be one expensive closer!
The loss put the Giants backs back up against the wall as they now have to win 3 do or die games in a row. Yeah, I know. Anyway, Barry Zito gets the first chance tonight. Zito is not a guy who inspires a ton of confidence and this Cardinals team is death to LHP's, but then again, Zito has pitched some big games for the Giants this year and done well in them. Not expecting much but as always, there is a reason why the play the games.
Go Giants!!
The Detroit Tigers finished off a sweep of the Yankees and whoever faces them in the World Series has a heckuva mountain to climb. For starters, Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on the planet right now and it isn't close. That means the opposing team has to win 4 of the other 5 games in the series and it's not like Verlander is the Tigers only good pitcher.
Marco Scutaro(.471) and Angel Pagan(.333)- 4 for 8, 2B, 3B. Once again the top of the lineup came through. The rest of the lineup had just two hits, although they were both dingers.
Pablo Sandoval- 1 for 4, HR. BA= .235.
Hector Sanchez- 0 for 4, 3 K's. I like Hector Sanchez, but even I would not put him in the 5 hole in a playoff game although I undertand Bochy's frustration with Pence in that slot and the Giants don't have a lot of other options.
Hunter Pence- 1 for 4, HR. BA= .133. The .133 tells the sad story of this series for the Giants offense.
Tim Lincecum- 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 5.40. Timmy was out of sync in his first 15 pitches and probably does not have the stamina to go more than 3 or 4 innings right now. Could he be next year's closer? That would be one expensive closer!
The loss put the Giants backs back up against the wall as they now have to win 3 do or die games in a row. Yeah, I know. Anyway, Barry Zito gets the first chance tonight. Zito is not a guy who inspires a ton of confidence and this Cardinals team is death to LHP's, but then again, Zito has pitched some big games for the Giants this year and done well in them. Not expecting much but as always, there is a reason why the play the games.
Go Giants!!
The Detroit Tigers finished off a sweep of the Yankees and whoever faces them in the World Series has a heckuva mountain to climb. For starters, Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on the planet right now and it isn't close. That means the opposing team has to win 4 of the other 5 games in the series and it's not like Verlander is the Tigers only good pitcher.
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