2. Madison Bumgarner. LHP. BD: 08-01-1989, 6'4", 215 lbs.
2009 stats: High A: 3-1, 1.48, 24.1 IP, 4 BB, 23 K's. AA: 9-1, 1.93, 107 IP, 30 BB, 69 K's. MLB: 0-0, 1.80, 10 IP, 3 BB, 10 K's.
After putting up astounding numbers for low A Augusta in 2008, Bumgarner picked up right where he left off in San Jose during a brief early season stint. He continued to get stellar results in a jump to AA, but suffered a noticeable drop in K/9. Giants fans were somewhat disappointed to see radar gun readings consistently in the high 80's upon his arrival in San Francisco for a late season call up. Still, he got excellent results in 4 appearances including one emergency start. The drop in velocity has been attributed to late season fatigue. Recently Bobby Evans hinted that it was due to a purposeful mechanical change that could be changed back with a return of low-mid 90's velocity. I have some concerns about the exaggerated cross-step he uses in terms of injury risk, but at this point "MadBum" seems destined for a successful MLB career. The Giants lack of activity in regards to signing a #5 starter has led to a sense that Bumgarner may be penciled into that role now, contrary to early offseason statements by Brian Sabean. Still, I find it hard to believe that the Giants will go to Spring Training without signing a veteran option for 5'th starter, but it may be someone on a minor league contract.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Hot Stove Update: Uribe Signs, RJ Retires
Jose Uribe officially re-signed with the Giants today. Nice job of waiting him out by Brian Sabean, 1 year, $3.5 M, no option.
Some of the speculation/information from Giants beat writers is not adding up. "Uribe could play primarily at 3B, moving DeRosa to LF." "The Giants are still seeking a lefthanded bat, either a first baseman or OF." It would seem almost certain that either DeRosa or Uribe is going to be the starting 3B, which means that Pablo has to move to first base, which means that the lefthanded bat the Giants are seeking isn't going to be playing first base. The most logical placements would seem to be Uribe at 3B, DeRosa in LF and Panda at 1B. Rowand is a lock for CF, so that leaves RF as the only place to put a lefthanded bat, which means that Nate Schierholtz is getting thrown under the bus.
I haven't always been a Randy Johnson fan. He was big, ugly and scary, and he didn't play for the Giants. I just didn't like the guy, especially when he pitched for the D'Backs! RJ is one of those guys who you hate when he is on the other team, and love when he is on your team. He was a shadow of his HOF self during his brief tenure with the Giants, but he did win 8 games, which is 3 more than the Giants #5 starters won in all of 2008. I am also convinced that he had a huge impact on the Giants young pitchers, giving them a confidence and tenacity that they might have lacked just a bit before his arrival. He was a good Giant. I am glad he got win #300 during his time here. He's a lock for the HOF and deservedly so.
Some of the speculation/information from Giants beat writers is not adding up. "Uribe could play primarily at 3B, moving DeRosa to LF." "The Giants are still seeking a lefthanded bat, either a first baseman or OF." It would seem almost certain that either DeRosa or Uribe is going to be the starting 3B, which means that Pablo has to move to first base, which means that the lefthanded bat the Giants are seeking isn't going to be playing first base. The most logical placements would seem to be Uribe at 3B, DeRosa in LF and Panda at 1B. Rowand is a lock for CF, so that leaves RF as the only place to put a lefthanded bat, which means that Nate Schierholtz is getting thrown under the bus.
I haven't always been a Randy Johnson fan. He was big, ugly and scary, and he didn't play for the Giants. I just didn't like the guy, especially when he pitched for the D'Backs! RJ is one of those guys who you hate when he is on the other team, and love when he is on your team. He was a shadow of his HOF self during his brief tenure with the Giants, but he did win 8 games, which is 3 more than the Giants #5 starters won in all of 2008. I am also convinced that he had a huge impact on the Giants young pitchers, giving them a confidence and tenacity that they might have lacked just a bit before his arrival. He was a good Giant. I am glad he got win #300 during his time here. He's a lock for the HOF and deservedly so.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Fantasy Impact: First Base
Baseball's best power hitters are found at the first base position. First base is deep and fantasy owners should have no trouble getting a very productive hitter for the position. One thing to remember in fantasy drafts is that many owners will draft 2 or even 3 first basemen and roster the extras at IF or Utility positions to maximize offensive production. While many of baseball's elite hitters can be found fairly deep, the talent level drops dramatically after the top 18-20 first basemen, so if you wait too long, you might find yourself stuck with Travis Ishikawa, which puts you at a pretty severe disadvantage compared to teams with Albert Pujols, Miggy Cabrera and Prince Fielder on their rosters. Here's my list of the top fantasy first basemen:
1. Albert Pujols- #1 overall on most draft boards, and deservedly so. Even stole 16 bases last season!
2. Prince Fielder- Elite HR hitter and run producer who won't hurt you on Batting Average.
3. Mark Teixeira- Got off to a slow start with the Yankees. Now that he is settled in, could really bust out in that Yankee lineup and RF porch in home ballpark.
4. Miguel Cabrera- Won't get quite as many HR's as Ryan Howard, but makes up for it in Batting Average.
5. Ryan Howard- Has some downside on Batting Average but is an elite producer in 3 categories.
6. Adrian Gonzalez- Have to be concerned about the home ballpark, but AGone hasn't let that hold him back yet. Has improved his HR numbers 4 years in a row.
7. Joey Votto- Brilliant young hitter who is still improving. Should be even better after overcoming depression and anxiety related to his father's sudden death.
8. Pablo Sandoval- Should have dual eligibility with 3B in most leagues.
9. Derrick Lee- Steady producer in a good lineup.
10. Justin Morneau- Another reliable producer. Stress fracture in back should be fully healed, but mild concern about recurrence of back problems.
11. Kendry Morales- Stepped right in and filled the vacancy lefty by Mark Teixeira. The Angels obviously knew something when they traded Casey Kotchman for 2 months of Teixeira.
12. Lance Berkman- Had a down year for him in 2009, but that's still pretty good. Expect a rebound, but Berkman may not be the type of player who is productive late in his career.
13. Billy Butler- Finally started to hit like everyone expected him to. 2010 could be a true breakout year.
14. Kevin Youkilis- The "Greek God of Walks" is a notch below the elite hitters, but has been rock steady for years. Dual eligibility at 3B makes him a great choice for IF or Utility positions.
15. Carlos Pena- Great power and run producing numbers, but kills you on Batting Average. I tend to stay away from players like that, especially since Batting Average is not a counting stat, it's hard for your other players to make up that deficit.
16. Paul Konerko- underrated. You probably don't want him as your regular first sacker but can make a nice utility guy.
17. Adam LaRoche- See Paul Konerko
18. James Loney- See Paul Konerko. Power has been disappointing, but hits for a decent average and still produces runs.
19. Todd Helton- Finally healthy last year. Valuable as a utility player if he remains so.
20. Jorge Cantu- Also underrated. Dual eligibility at 3B.
20. Nick Johnson- If he can stay healthy, should thrive in Yankee Stadium and the Yankee lineup.
Regression alert! Garrett Jones, Russell Branyan.
Possible Rookies worth monitoring: Brett Wallace(if Toronto can trade Overbay), Logan Morrison, Chris Carter(Oakland).
Sleeper alert: Travis Ishikawa. If he can shake off the young player jitters and produce anything close to what he did in his home ballpark, could be a very surprising player. If the Giants sign a veteran first baseman like LaRoche though, Travis is done.
1. Albert Pujols- #1 overall on most draft boards, and deservedly so. Even stole 16 bases last season!
2. Prince Fielder- Elite HR hitter and run producer who won't hurt you on Batting Average.
3. Mark Teixeira- Got off to a slow start with the Yankees. Now that he is settled in, could really bust out in that Yankee lineup and RF porch in home ballpark.
4. Miguel Cabrera- Won't get quite as many HR's as Ryan Howard, but makes up for it in Batting Average.
5. Ryan Howard- Has some downside on Batting Average but is an elite producer in 3 categories.
6. Adrian Gonzalez- Have to be concerned about the home ballpark, but AGone hasn't let that hold him back yet. Has improved his HR numbers 4 years in a row.
7. Joey Votto- Brilliant young hitter who is still improving. Should be even better after overcoming depression and anxiety related to his father's sudden death.
8. Pablo Sandoval- Should have dual eligibility with 3B in most leagues.
9. Derrick Lee- Steady producer in a good lineup.
10. Justin Morneau- Another reliable producer. Stress fracture in back should be fully healed, but mild concern about recurrence of back problems.
11. Kendry Morales- Stepped right in and filled the vacancy lefty by Mark Teixeira. The Angels obviously knew something when they traded Casey Kotchman for 2 months of Teixeira.
12. Lance Berkman- Had a down year for him in 2009, but that's still pretty good. Expect a rebound, but Berkman may not be the type of player who is productive late in his career.
13. Billy Butler- Finally started to hit like everyone expected him to. 2010 could be a true breakout year.
14. Kevin Youkilis- The "Greek God of Walks" is a notch below the elite hitters, but has been rock steady for years. Dual eligibility at 3B makes him a great choice for IF or Utility positions.
15. Carlos Pena- Great power and run producing numbers, but kills you on Batting Average. I tend to stay away from players like that, especially since Batting Average is not a counting stat, it's hard for your other players to make up that deficit.
16. Paul Konerko- underrated. You probably don't want him as your regular first sacker but can make a nice utility guy.
17. Adam LaRoche- See Paul Konerko
18. James Loney- See Paul Konerko. Power has been disappointing, but hits for a decent average and still produces runs.
19. Todd Helton- Finally healthy last year. Valuable as a utility player if he remains so.
20. Jorge Cantu- Also underrated. Dual eligibility at 3B.
20. Nick Johnson- If he can stay healthy, should thrive in Yankee Stadium and the Yankee lineup.
Regression alert! Garrett Jones, Russell Branyan.
Possible Rookies worth monitoring: Brett Wallace(if Toronto can trade Overbay), Logan Morrison, Chris Carter(Oakland).
Sleeper alert: Travis Ishikawa. If he can shake off the young player jitters and produce anything close to what he did in his home ballpark, could be a very surprising player. If the Giants sign a veteran first baseman like LaRoche though, Travis is done.
Top 50 Prospects #1: Buster Posey
Buster Posey. C. B-R, T-R. BD-03-27-1987. 6'1", 205 lbs.
2009 Stats: High A- .326/.328/.540 with 13 HR's in 291 AB's. AAA- .321/.391/.511 with 5 HR's in 131 AB's.
MLB- .118/.118/.118 in 17 AB's.
Buster Posey separated himself from the pack to emerge as the Giants clear cut #1 prospect for 2010. Drafted in 2008 after winning the College Baseball Player of the Year with Florida State, Buster has worked his way up from Rookie League to AAA and a MLB September call up in just 2 years. He also played in the Hawaiian WInter Baseball League and the Arizona Fall League along the way. He has shown the ability to hit for average, power, and plate discipline at all levels. He had some issues with passed balls and was inexperienced with game calling early on, but has improved markedly in both areas. While there is little doubt that Buster will be a star for years to come, there is some question whether he might benefit from a few more months of seasoning in the minors. The Giants might also have learned from their experience with Tim Lincecum the value of delaying a call up for a few weeks or months in order to get an extra year of service prior to arbitration. A relative seller's market at catcher this offseason may decide that for the Giants and give Buster his MLB starting job out of Spring training. If so, he may have an initial adjustment period, but should quickly establish himself as a .800+ OPS hitter and a top 10 fantasy rated catcher.
2009 Stats: High A- .326/.328/.540 with 13 HR's in 291 AB's. AAA- .321/.391/.511 with 5 HR's in 131 AB's.
MLB- .118/.118/.118 in 17 AB's.
Buster Posey separated himself from the pack to emerge as the Giants clear cut #1 prospect for 2010. Drafted in 2008 after winning the College Baseball Player of the Year with Florida State, Buster has worked his way up from Rookie League to AAA and a MLB September call up in just 2 years. He also played in the Hawaiian WInter Baseball League and the Arizona Fall League along the way. He has shown the ability to hit for average, power, and plate discipline at all levels. He had some issues with passed balls and was inexperienced with game calling early on, but has improved markedly in both areas. While there is little doubt that Buster will be a star for years to come, there is some question whether he might benefit from a few more months of seasoning in the minors. The Giants might also have learned from their experience with Tim Lincecum the value of delaying a call up for a few weeks or months in order to get an extra year of service prior to arbitration. A relative seller's market at catcher this offseason may decide that for the Giants and give Buster his MLB starting job out of Spring training. If so, he may have an initial adjustment period, but should quickly establish himself as a .800+ OPS hitter and a top 10 fantasy rated catcher.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Dr B's 2010 Giants Top 50 Prospects
It's time for my annual Giants Top 50 Prospect list. For the last several years, I have posted these on the Giants Message Board on sfgiants.com with a lot of positive feedback. Starting this year, I am posting it exclusively on my own blog. I will begin by simply posting the list along with some honorable mention candidates and some names to watch from the Dominican Summer League. Between now and the start of the season, I will post comments on each player on the list. As always, this list is just one fan's opinion. Don't get too hung up on the exact order. The main point is to familiarize readers with the players in the Giants minor league system who I think have a chance to play in the major leagues someday.
The Giants farm system remains strong, despite a couple of trades, some poor performances, and the devastating loss, hopefully temporary, of Angel Villalona to legal problems in his home country, the Dominican Republic. These losses were made up for by another strong draft, more international signings, and some unexpectedly strong performances. Last year, the Giants were ranked by Baseball America as the #5 best farm system in baseball. BA hasn't released their list yet this year, but two of their writers, John Manuel and Jim Callis are on record as ranking them #3 and #4 respectively.
On with the list!
1. Buster Posey, C
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
3. Zach Wheeler, RHP
4. Thomas Neal. OF/1B
5. Rafael Rodriguez, OF
6. Brandon Crawford, SS
7. Roger Kieshnick, OF
8. Tommy Joseph, C
9. Nick Noonan, 2B
10. Francisco Peguero, OF
11. Hector Sanchez, C
12. Edward Concepcion, RHP
13. Dan Runzler, LHP
14. Waldis Joaquin, RHP
15. Jason Stoffel, RHP
16. Clayton Tanner, LHP
17. Darren Ford, OF
18. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
19. Ehire Adrianza, SS
20. Chris Dominguez, 3B/1B
21. Ydwin Villegas, SS
22. Henry Sosa, RHP
23. Jose Casilla, RHP
24. Matt Graham, RHP
25. Brett Pill, 1B
26. Johnny Monell, C
27. Steve Edlefsen, RHP
28. Kevin Pucetas, RHP
29. Joe Paterson, LHP
30. Brock Bond, 2B
31. Dan Turpen, RHP
32. Mike McBryde, OF
33. Craig Clark, LHP
34. Paul Oseguera, LHP
35. Kyle Nicholson, RHP
36. Eric Surkamp, LHP
37. Ari Ronick, LHP
38. Josh Mazzola, 3B
39. Wendell Fairley, OF
40. Charlie Culberson, 2B
41. Aaron King, LHP
42. Andy Reichard, RHP
43. Chris Wilson, RHP
44. Ryan Verdugo, LHP
45. Evan Crawford, OF
46. Drew Biery, 3B
47. Ryan Cavan, SS
48. Jorge Bucardo, RHP
49. Jose Valdez, RHP
50. Wilbur Bucardo, RHP
Honorable Mention: David Quinowski, Dan Griffin, Chris Gloor, Jeremy Toole, Craig Westcott, Leonardo Ochoa, Sundrendy Windster, Julio Izturis, Cameron Lamb, Jason Jarvis, Kaohi Downing, Audy Santana.
"Dominican Dandies": Carlos Willoughby, Jose De La Cruz, Jesus Galindo, Kendry Flores, Ariel Hernandez.
The Giants farm system remains strong, despite a couple of trades, some poor performances, and the devastating loss, hopefully temporary, of Angel Villalona to legal problems in his home country, the Dominican Republic. These losses were made up for by another strong draft, more international signings, and some unexpectedly strong performances. Last year, the Giants were ranked by Baseball America as the #5 best farm system in baseball. BA hasn't released their list yet this year, but two of their writers, John Manuel and Jim Callis are on record as ranking them #3 and #4 respectively.
On with the list!
1. Buster Posey, C
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
3. Zach Wheeler, RHP
4. Thomas Neal. OF/1B
5. Rafael Rodriguez, OF
6. Brandon Crawford, SS
7. Roger Kieshnick, OF
8. Tommy Joseph, C
9. Nick Noonan, 2B
10. Francisco Peguero, OF
11. Hector Sanchez, C
12. Edward Concepcion, RHP
13. Dan Runzler, LHP
14. Waldis Joaquin, RHP
15. Jason Stoffel, RHP
16. Clayton Tanner, LHP
17. Darren Ford, OF
18. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
19. Ehire Adrianza, SS
20. Chris Dominguez, 3B/1B
21. Ydwin Villegas, SS
22. Henry Sosa, RHP
23. Jose Casilla, RHP
24. Matt Graham, RHP
25. Brett Pill, 1B
26. Johnny Monell, C
27. Steve Edlefsen, RHP
28. Kevin Pucetas, RHP
29. Joe Paterson, LHP
30. Brock Bond, 2B
31. Dan Turpen, RHP
32. Mike McBryde, OF
33. Craig Clark, LHP
34. Paul Oseguera, LHP
35. Kyle Nicholson, RHP
36. Eric Surkamp, LHP
37. Ari Ronick, LHP
38. Josh Mazzola, 3B
39. Wendell Fairley, OF
40. Charlie Culberson, 2B
41. Aaron King, LHP
42. Andy Reichard, RHP
43. Chris Wilson, RHP
44. Ryan Verdugo, LHP
45. Evan Crawford, OF
46. Drew Biery, 3B
47. Ryan Cavan, SS
48. Jorge Bucardo, RHP
49. Jose Valdez, RHP
50. Wilbur Bucardo, RHP
Honorable Mention: David Quinowski, Dan Griffin, Chris Gloor, Jeremy Toole, Craig Westcott, Leonardo Ochoa, Sundrendy Windster, Julio Izturis, Cameron Lamb, Jason Jarvis, Kaohi Downing, Audy Santana.
"Dominican Dandies": Carlos Willoughby, Jose De La Cruz, Jesus Galindo, Kendry Flores, Ariel Hernandez.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Giants Catcher Options
In the previous post, we looked at the dearth of strong catching options in Major League Baseball. The Giants are finding that out the hard way this offseason. Catching is one of the few positions where there is a semblance of a seller's market. The Giants find themselves caught between the past and the future, but possibly no present. Bengie Molina was their catcher for the last 3 years certainly earned his salary and then some. Yes, he was painfully slow on the bases, hacked at way too many bad pitches, and perhaps called for too many fastballs so as not to have to block breaking balls in the dirt, but he was at least average on defense and was practically the Giants only source of power. Bengie's contract is up. At age 35, he knows he doesn't have many paydays left. Bengie wants a multiyear contract. Meanwhile, the Giants made the College Player of the Year, Buster Posey, a catcher, their first round draft choice in 2008, #5 overall. Buster might not be quite ready to take over as the Giants starting catcher in 2010, but he's very close. It seems likely that Buster will work his way into that position before the end of the season, and be ready for his first full season as the starting catcher in 2011. The Giants don't want to sign any multiyear contracts with a veteran catcher who will get in the way of Buster's timetable.
The offseason began with the Giants proclaiming that Buster might not be ready to catch 100+ games in the majors next season, and that they were looking for a veteran catcher on a 1 year contract. By the time the winter meetings rolled around, several veteran catchers had already signed and several were given 2 year contracts and for more money than the Giants are wanting to pay. Reports from the team had them re-evaluating Buster Posey's readiness and moving toward penciling him in as the starter. Looking over what's left out on the free agent market, it's looking more and more like they may not have much choice. Here is a list of all still available free agent catchers that might be considered an upgrade on Eli Whiteside, the Giants current backup catcher with last year's stat lines:
Rod Barajas: 34 years old. .226/.258/.403 with 19 HR's. That's an even worse OBP than Bengie, but excellent isolated power. Barajas is seeking a 2 year contract, so isn't going to sign for 1 year any time soon.
Yorvit Torrealba: 31 years old. .291/.351/.380 with 2 HR's in 213 AB's. Much better BA and OBP, but no power to speak of. Also seeking a multiyear contract.
Miguel Olivo: 31 years old. .249/.291/.490 with 23 HR's. Great offensive numbers, especially the HR's, but reportedly not a good defensive catcher. Rumors have him close to a deal with the Colorado Rockies, so he may be off the market soon if not already.
Brad Ausmus: 41 years old. .295/.343/.368 with 1 HR in 95 AB's for the Dodgers. Don't let that BA fool you. His career BA is far lower. At this point of his career, he won't be catching more than a few games as a backup, and is unlikely to hit better than Whiteside.
Paul Bako: 37 years old. .224/.308/.336 with 3 HR's in 116 AB's. Again, nothing more than a backup. Does hit lefthanded which makes him a bit more attractive, but again, unlikely to hit much better than Whiteside.
Bengie Molina: It's hard to imagine Bengie coming back on a 1 year contract, but the Mets don't seem to be budging from their 1 year plus an option offer. Still, the Mets offer is probably for more than the Giants want to pay even for 1 year. A real longshot.
It's possible the Giants might make a trade. Tampa Bay would probably deal Dioner Navarro, but do the Giants want to give up a prospect or two for a catcher that they only need for maybe less than a year?
Texas is rumored to be in the market for a veteran catcher. Seattle and San Diego may be looking to scoop up one on the cheap just like the Giants. It's looking more and more like the Giants are not going to find what they are looking for this offseason, which leaves Buster Posey as the probable starting catcher.
I think Buster is ready, at least as much as he is ever going to be. He played well for AAA Fresno last year. He struggled a bit in the Arizona Fall League, but observers felt he was fatigued from the long season. The Giants experience with sending Todd Linden, Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker back to Fresno for more seasoning has not yielded the hoped for boost to their major league start. Buster will likely have an adjustment period during which he struggles, but the talent is there. Elite major college talent has historically been able to transition quickly to the major leagues. If he is given the starting catcher job out of spring training, Buster Posey will likely be a top 10 MLB catcher by the end of the season.
The offseason began with the Giants proclaiming that Buster might not be ready to catch 100+ games in the majors next season, and that they were looking for a veteran catcher on a 1 year contract. By the time the winter meetings rolled around, several veteran catchers had already signed and several were given 2 year contracts and for more money than the Giants are wanting to pay. Reports from the team had them re-evaluating Buster Posey's readiness and moving toward penciling him in as the starter. Looking over what's left out on the free agent market, it's looking more and more like they may not have much choice. Here is a list of all still available free agent catchers that might be considered an upgrade on Eli Whiteside, the Giants current backup catcher with last year's stat lines:
Rod Barajas: 34 years old. .226/.258/.403 with 19 HR's. That's an even worse OBP than Bengie, but excellent isolated power. Barajas is seeking a 2 year contract, so isn't going to sign for 1 year any time soon.
Yorvit Torrealba: 31 years old. .291/.351/.380 with 2 HR's in 213 AB's. Much better BA and OBP, but no power to speak of. Also seeking a multiyear contract.
Miguel Olivo: 31 years old. .249/.291/.490 with 23 HR's. Great offensive numbers, especially the HR's, but reportedly not a good defensive catcher. Rumors have him close to a deal with the Colorado Rockies, so he may be off the market soon if not already.
Brad Ausmus: 41 years old. .295/.343/.368 with 1 HR in 95 AB's for the Dodgers. Don't let that BA fool you. His career BA is far lower. At this point of his career, he won't be catching more than a few games as a backup, and is unlikely to hit better than Whiteside.
Paul Bako: 37 years old. .224/.308/.336 with 3 HR's in 116 AB's. Again, nothing more than a backup. Does hit lefthanded which makes him a bit more attractive, but again, unlikely to hit much better than Whiteside.
Bengie Molina: It's hard to imagine Bengie coming back on a 1 year contract, but the Mets don't seem to be budging from their 1 year plus an option offer. Still, the Mets offer is probably for more than the Giants want to pay even for 1 year. A real longshot.
It's possible the Giants might make a trade. Tampa Bay would probably deal Dioner Navarro, but do the Giants want to give up a prospect or two for a catcher that they only need for maybe less than a year?
Texas is rumored to be in the market for a veteran catcher. Seattle and San Diego may be looking to scoop up one on the cheap just like the Giants. It's looking more and more like the Giants are not going to find what they are looking for this offseason, which leaves Buster Posey as the probable starting catcher.
I think Buster is ready, at least as much as he is ever going to be. He played well for AAA Fresno last year. He struggled a bit in the Arizona Fall League, but observers felt he was fatigued from the long season. The Giants experience with sending Todd Linden, Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker back to Fresno for more seasoning has not yielded the hoped for boost to their major league start. Buster will likely have an adjustment period during which he struggles, but the talent is there. Elite major college talent has historically been able to transition quickly to the major leagues. If he is given the starting catcher job out of spring training, Buster Posey will likely be a top 10 MLB catcher by the end of the season.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Fantasy Impact: Catcher
If there is one position where you might want to think about overdrafting for position, catcher would top my list. The problem with the catcher position is the enormous dropoff in production very early in the rankings. There is a guy in my 10 team fantasy league who left his catcher position unfilled most of the last 2 years because he thought the 10'th best catcher in baseball would actually hurt his team. Of course, with 4 of the 5 offensive categories in our league being counting stats, he was very wrong for doing that, but it illustrates just how far the difference between Joe Mauer and the 10'th best catcher in baseball really is. That gap may be starting to close as several exciting young catchers mature and some great looking catcher prospects break into the league. Here's my preliminary top 12 fantasy catchers for 2010(assuming the standard 5 offensive fantasy categories):
1. Joe Mauer- An elite hitter regardless of position. Should be a first round pick if available.
2. Victor Martinez- I rate him ahead of McCann because his ability to play non-catcher positions will enable him to get more TPA's, and thus more opportunity to accumulate counting stats.
3. Brian McCann- Mild concern about the outcome of repeat Lasik surgery, but assuming his eye problems are fixed, he's almost a lock for a .300+ BA with 20-25 HR's, 90+ RBIs. Very tough to equal that from the catcher position.
4. Matt Wieters- Wieters is going to break out huge in 2010! By this time next year, he will be challenging Joe Mauer for the #1 fantasy catcher spot. He probably won't ever hit for average the way Mauer does, but think 40 HR's/season! If you are a risk taker, Wieters should go in the first 3-4 rounds, especially if you are in a keeper league.
5. Miguel Montero- Another up-and-comer for Arizona. Can be as good as Brian McCann.
6. Kurt Suzuki- This guy has been durable with steadily improving numbers over the last 3 seasons. Still young enough to improve some more.
7. Jorge Posada- A bit dicey at age 38. Not sure he is good for more than 110 games, but as a lefthanded pull hitter in Yankee Stadium, should still be good for 20 HR's. The pickings get so slim at this level, he's worth the risk.
8. AJ Pierzynski- Steady as a clock. Mark him down for a .280-.300 BA, 10-15 HR's, 50-60 Runs and RBI's each.
9. Russell Martin- A pivotal year for Martin. His production has deteriorated two years running. Young enough and talented enough to bounce back, but was bad enough last year, without a good explanation, that it would be a mistake to draft him earlier than the later rounds.
10. Mike Napoli- This guy can hit, but Mike Scioscia seems to be not enamored with his defense. Would be ranked higher were it not for concerns about playing time.
11. Bengie Molina- Has been surprisingly productive over the last 3 seasons in San Francisco, but a cleanup hitter will get RBI opportunities even in that lineup. He won't hit cleanup for whatever team he signs with in 2010, and he isn't getting any younger or faster. High risk for a huge dropoff, but it's garbage time here. You can wait until the last round of the draft for Molina or any one of several other choices.
12. Yadier Molina- Yadier Molina won't hurt your Batting Average and will add a bit to your counting stats. Again, don't bother to use anything higher than your last draft pick on him.
There are a couple of rookies that should be watched closely right up to the draft. If it looks like they are going to be starters, they should be seriously considered ahead of the Molina's and possibly ahead of AJ Pierzynski:
Carlos Santana- Coming off a fractured hammate bone in his wrist. Had a small fragment surgically removed on December 9. That, and the uncertainties of a rookie season limit his preseason value, but by this time next year he could well be up there with Montero and the other tier 2 catchers. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Cleveland now that Shoppach has been traded, so recovery from the injury and surgery would be the only thing holding him back.
Buster Posey- The Giants are vacillating on whether to sign a stopgap veteran catcher for 1 season, or to throw Posey into the water and let him swim. Even if he starts the season with the MLB club, the Giants will try to limit him to no more than 100 games. Still, might be worth drafting in some keeper leagues. He should develop into at least a tier 2 catcher quickly.
1. Joe Mauer- An elite hitter regardless of position. Should be a first round pick if available.
2. Victor Martinez- I rate him ahead of McCann because his ability to play non-catcher positions will enable him to get more TPA's, and thus more opportunity to accumulate counting stats.
3. Brian McCann- Mild concern about the outcome of repeat Lasik surgery, but assuming his eye problems are fixed, he's almost a lock for a .300+ BA with 20-25 HR's, 90+ RBIs. Very tough to equal that from the catcher position.
4. Matt Wieters- Wieters is going to break out huge in 2010! By this time next year, he will be challenging Joe Mauer for the #1 fantasy catcher spot. He probably won't ever hit for average the way Mauer does, but think 40 HR's/season! If you are a risk taker, Wieters should go in the first 3-4 rounds, especially if you are in a keeper league.
5. Miguel Montero- Another up-and-comer for Arizona. Can be as good as Brian McCann.
6. Kurt Suzuki- This guy has been durable with steadily improving numbers over the last 3 seasons. Still young enough to improve some more.
7. Jorge Posada- A bit dicey at age 38. Not sure he is good for more than 110 games, but as a lefthanded pull hitter in Yankee Stadium, should still be good for 20 HR's. The pickings get so slim at this level, he's worth the risk.
8. AJ Pierzynski- Steady as a clock. Mark him down for a .280-.300 BA, 10-15 HR's, 50-60 Runs and RBI's each.
9. Russell Martin- A pivotal year for Martin. His production has deteriorated two years running. Young enough and talented enough to bounce back, but was bad enough last year, without a good explanation, that it would be a mistake to draft him earlier than the later rounds.
10. Mike Napoli- This guy can hit, but Mike Scioscia seems to be not enamored with his defense. Would be ranked higher were it not for concerns about playing time.
11. Bengie Molina- Has been surprisingly productive over the last 3 seasons in San Francisco, but a cleanup hitter will get RBI opportunities even in that lineup. He won't hit cleanup for whatever team he signs with in 2010, and he isn't getting any younger or faster. High risk for a huge dropoff, but it's garbage time here. You can wait until the last round of the draft for Molina or any one of several other choices.
12. Yadier Molina- Yadier Molina won't hurt your Batting Average and will add a bit to your counting stats. Again, don't bother to use anything higher than your last draft pick on him.
There are a couple of rookies that should be watched closely right up to the draft. If it looks like they are going to be starters, they should be seriously considered ahead of the Molina's and possibly ahead of AJ Pierzynski:
Carlos Santana- Coming off a fractured hammate bone in his wrist. Had a small fragment surgically removed on December 9. That, and the uncertainties of a rookie season limit his preseason value, but by this time next year he could well be up there with Montero and the other tier 2 catchers. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Cleveland now that Shoppach has been traded, so recovery from the injury and surgery would be the only thing holding him back.
Buster Posey- The Giants are vacillating on whether to sign a stopgap veteran catcher for 1 season, or to throw Posey into the water and let him swim. Even if he starts the season with the MLB club, the Giants will try to limit him to no more than 100 games. Still, might be worth drafting in some keeper leagues. He should develop into at least a tier 2 catcher quickly.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
