Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Two Pitchers To Minor League Deals

 Let's meet a couple more newcomers to the Giants farm system and I'm actually pretty excited by these two.

Juan Mercedes RHP:  DOB:  4/3/2000.  6' 2", 190 lbs.  

2024(AA, Mariners):  10-5, 2.87, 144.1 IP, 7.86 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 0.66 GB/FB.

Worked exclusively as a SP in the Mariners system.  Outstanding walk rate but subpar K rate which is concerning for a fly ball pitcher.  Fangraphs:  "Mercedes is a slider-heavy starter at Double-A who has good peripherals, but I don't trust that he actually has good command and he's at best a 40 athlete."  Giants can assign him to AAA Sacramento where he will provide depth for both the MLB rotation and bullpen.

Joel Peguero RHP:  DOB:  5/5/1997.  5' 11", 160 lbs.  

2024(AA, Tigers):  3-0, 3.14, 51.2 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB.

Minor league reliever.  Spent 7 seasons in the Rays organization before hitting the minor league free agent circuit.  Fangraphs rates his FB as a 70, slider a 55.  To my eye the K, BB and GB/FB numbers are all positives.

MLB Draft Reviews: 2021 First Round

 1.  Pirates:  Henry Davis C, College.  

2024(AAA):  .307/.401/.555, 13 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 22.4 K%, 254 PA.

2024(MLB):  .144/.242/.212, 1 HR, 10.7 BB%, 36.9 K%, 122 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Polarizing choice as #1 overall as a hit-first college catcher who was widely considered a signability pick.  Better defender at C than OF in small samples.  Has put together excellent offensive lines in AAA but faceplanted in 2 MLB trials with a .191 BA in 377 cumulative PA's.  Can he make the adjustment with more MLB experience or is he a AAAA player?

2.  Rangers:  Jack Leiter RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  6-4, 3.51, 77 IP, 12.86 K/9, 4.09 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-3, 8.83, 35.1 IP, 7.82 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, -0.2 fWAR.

First 3 pro seasons did not go well with ERA's and BB/9's over 5.  2024 AAA was better but midseason call up to the Rangers did not go well.

3.  Tigers:  Jackson Jobe RHP, HS

2024(AA):  4-2, 1.95, 73.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 4.04 xFIP.  

Peripheral numbers don't match the ERA.  Also pitched 9 innings at AAA and 4 innings at MLB levels with even worse ratios.  His FB was 97 MPH in his MLB cup of coffee.  Maybe profiles more as a reliever than SP?

4.  Red Sox:  Marcelo Mayer SS, HS

2024(AA):  .307/.370/.480, 8 HR, 13 SB, 9.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, 335 PA.

The numbers look good.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs mentions issues with soft stuff low and away.  His last two seasons ended early with relatively minor injuries.  Still projects as at least a solid starting MBL SS.

5.  Orioles:  Colton Cowser OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .242/.321/.447, 24 HR, 9 SB, 9.3 BB%, 30.7 K%, 561 PA, 4.0 fWAR.  

K rate is a bit high but otherwise about all you could expect from a rookie season for a first round draft pick.

6.  D'Backs:  Jordan Lawlar SS, HS.

Battled a hamstring injury for much of 2024 and got only 104 PA at 3 levels.  Numbers are good when healthy and should graduate to MLB in 2025 if healthy.

7.  Royals:  Frank Mozzicato LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  5-10, 3.45, 101.2 IP, 8.06 K/9, 5.49 BB/9.  

Not the numbers you want to see from a first round draft pick in their third pro season even if they were drafted out of HS.

8.  Rockies:  Benny Montgomery OF, HS.

2024(AA);  .283/.313/.500, 2 HR, 3 SB, 4.2 BB%, 41.7 K%, 48 PA.

Underwent shoulder surgery in May and did not return in 2024.  Had been progressing at a reasonable pace before that setback.

9.  Angels:  Sam Bachman RHP, College.

Made the majors in 2023 and pitched to a 3.18 ERA but with poor peripherals.  Missed the second half of 2023 with shoulder inflammation and underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason.  Pitched at 3 levels in second half of 2024.  2025 should be a telling year.

10.  Mets:  Kumar Rocker RHP, College.

Did not sign.  Pitched indy ball for a year and was drafted by the Rangers in 2022.  Pitched at 4 levels in 2024 with excellent stat lines including 11.2 IP with the MLB Rangers.

11.  Nationals:  Brady House SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .234/.310/.423, 13 HR, 5 SB, 7.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 306 PA.

2024(AAA):  .250/.280/.375, 6 HR, SB, 3.0 BB%, 28.8 K%, 236 PA.  

Projected to play 3B for the Nationals in 2025.  Offensive profile similar to Casey Schmitt.

12.  Mariners:  Harry Ford C, HS.

2024(AA):  .249/.377/.367, 7 HR, 35 SB, 14.5 BB%, 22.0 K%, 523 PA.

Power down a bit after hitting 15 HR in 2023 in A+ ball.  Excellent plate discipline.  Fangraphs notes improve catcher D.

13.  Phillies:  Andrew Painter RHP, HS.

Had a great Arizona Fall League with a 2.08 ERA and 12 K's, 2 BB's in 13 IP after missing 2 full seasons with a UCL tear.  Fangraphs comped him to Justin Verlander!

14.  Giants:  Will Bednar RHP, College.

2024(A):  1-0, 3.60, 10 IP, 11.70 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-2, 3.18, 11.1 IP, 15.88 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-2, 7.71, 32.2 IP, 11.85 K/9, 9.92 BB/9.

Bednar has been quite the enigma.  I really liked him coming out of the draft.  I figured a top pitcher from the top college conference would be a fast mover to the majors and be a rotation fixture for years.  I saw him pitch in San Bernardino early in 2022.  He took a no-hitter into the 5'th inning but something seemed off.  His velocity topped out at 92 MPH with inconsistent command.  He was shut down early in 2022 and missed much of 2023 with back issues.  His velocity was reportedly up to the mid-90's in 2024 but he continued to battle command/control issues.  He was not added to the 40 man roster this offseason and is Rule 5 Draft eligible.  He's a guy who could move fast if he ever gets his command back and stays healthy but how likely is that? 

15.  Brewers:  Sal Frelick OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .259/320/.335, 2 HR, 18 SB, 7.4 BB%, 14.9 K%, 524 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Contact/speed guys seem to be coming back into vogue.  Buster Posey has indicated he wants these types of players on the Giants due to ballpark characteristics.  Most of Frelick's WAR value is in defense and baserunning.

16.  Marlins:  Khalil Watson SS, HS

2024(AA, Guardians):  .220/.305/.407, 16 HR, 15 SB, 407 PA.

Traded to Guardians with Jean Segura for Josh Bell at the 2023 trade deadline.  Off the chart tools but needs to improve contact.

17.  Reds:  Matt McLain SS, College.

2023(MLB):  .290/.357/.507, 16 HR, 14 SB, 7.7 BB%, 28.5 K%, 403 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Terrific rookie season.  Did not play in 2024 due to shoulder surgery in March. 

18.  Cardinals:  Michael McGreevy RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  9-8, 4.02, 150 IP, 8.28 K/9, 2.64 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-0, 1.96, 23 IP, 7.04 K/9, 0.78 BB/9, 0.6 fWAR.

Solid minor league record and a promising start to his MLB career.  Extreme groundball ratio with low walk rates is a recipe for sustained success.  Cardinals once again finding value in the second half of the first round.

19.  Blue Jays:  Gunnar Hoglund RHP, College. 

2024(AA, A's):  9-4, 2.84, 104.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.

2-24(AAA, A's):  0-3, 5.88, 26 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.46 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in 2022 in a package for Matt Chapman.  Some inconsistent ERA's and pedestrian K/BB's.  Added to A's 40-man roster yesterday.

20. Yankees: Trey Sweeney SS, College.

2024(AAA, Dodgers):  .254/.334/.427, 13 HR, 16 SB, 10.0 BB%, 26.8 K%, 440 PA.

2024(AAA, Tigers):  .381/.447/.667, 2 HR, 4 SB, 10.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, 47 PA.

2024(MLB, Tigers):  .218/.269/.373, 4 HR, 2 SB, 5.9 BB%, 26.9 K%, 119 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Traded from the Yankees to the Dodgers for a couple of pitchers in the fall of 2023.  Traded to the Tigers for Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline 2024.  Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Big-framed shortstop with starter-quality contact/power combo that plays down due to his downward swing."

21.  Cubs:  Jordan Wicks LHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-4, 5.57, 21 IP, 10.29 K/9, 3.43 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 5.48, 46 IP, 8.22 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, -0.1 fWAR.

Reached MLB level in 2023 with a 4.41 ERA in 34.2 IP(0.3 fWAR).  Regressed in 2024.  Maybe the league got a book on his stuff?

22.  White Sox:  Colson Montgomery SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .214/.329/.381, 18 HR, 8 SB, 12.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, 573 PA.  

Fangraphs:  "Montgomery is probably too big for a shortstop but his on-base skills and power profile well at third base."  Will need to improve contact.

23.  Guardians:  Gavin Williams RHP, College.

2024:  3-10, 4.86, 76 IP, 9.36 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.3 fWAR.

Reached the majors in 2023(1.1 fWAR) with inconsistent results so far.

24.  Braves:  Ryan Cusick RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-3, 4.47, 56.1 IP, 10.07 K/9, 5.27 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in the package for Matt Olson.  Added to 40-man roster yesterday.  High walk rates have held him back and continue to be an issue.

25.  A's:  Max Muncy SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .277/.374/.491, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.9 BB%, 24.6 K%, 203 PA.

Not to be confused with THAT Max Muncy!  Really, this Max Muncy should seriously think about changing his name or going by a nickname or something.  I get PTSD just reading the name.  We'll give it a scouting grade of 20.  Will likely make his MLB debut with the A's in 2025.

26.  Twins:  Chase Petty RHP, HS.

2024(AA):  10-5, 4.39, 127 IP, 8.72 K/9, 3.97 BB/9.

Traded to the Reds for Sonny Gray RHP.  Unexciting peripheral stats.

27.  Padres:  Jackson Merrill OF, HS.

2024(MLB):  .292/.326/.500, 24 HR, 16 SB, 4.9 BB%, 17.0 K%, 593 PA, 5.3 fWAR.

Best player in the draft so far.  Contact, power, speed.  He's the whole package.  Can he sustain it with that walk rate?  When a team gets a player like this at #27 is it drafting luck or skill? I mean the Angels got Mike Trout at #25 and he was their only good pick for a decade.

28.  Rays:  Carson Williams SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .256/.352/.469, 20 HR, 33 SB, 11.5 BB%, 28.5 K%, 505 PA.  Fangraphs:  "Williams has hit tool risk, but his power and shortstop defense make him a potential star.

29.  Dodgers:  Maddux Bruns LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  0-1, 2.22, 28.1 IP, 11.75 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

Severe command/control issues limit potential.  May end up as lefty reliever.

Summary:

Strange draft in that the back half of the first round looks a lot stronger than the front half so far.  Maybe too early to completely give up on Bednar but the probability is the Giants get no value from this first round pick and that hurts.

Hot Stove Update: Buster Adds Advisors; Rule 5 Draft Roster Moves

Giants POBO, Buster Posey, made a couple of hires which caused a mini-meltdown in the Giants blogosphere.  Buster hired former Giants GM Bobby Evans and Buster's own former agent, Jeff Berry, as advisors.  The meltdowns are related to a perception that Bobby Evans tenure as GM was a disaster while Jeff Berry was recently quoted in The Athletic complaining about Moneyball groupthink and how unfair it was for some of his clients.  

I've never been as down on Bobby Evans as most Giants bloggers.  He was trying to keep an aging, declining core competitive longer than was warranted but I tend to believe that's what ownership wanted him to do.  It was the expectation of most of the fanbase.  He acquired some veteran players who didn't pan out as hoped which left the team in a payroll bind.  He also expanded the analytics department and beefed up international scouting which paid dividends with the signings of Luis Matos and Marco Luciano.  He was also GM when Heliot Ramos was drafted after several drafts that didn't work out, mostly due to the Giants relatively low drafting positions.  I am sure his top-to-bottom knowledge of organizational structure will be valuable to Buster as he acclimates to the role of POBO.  I don't know enough about Berry to comment much on what he may bring to Buster's round table, but it doesn't hurt to have some insight into how agents think about the free agent process.

*************************************************************************************

Today was the deadline for setting 40-man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft which takes place on the last day of the Winter Meetings in December.  No big surprises as the Giants added Carson Seymour RHP and Carson Ragsdale RHP and DFA's Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  Players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft who were not protected include Aeverson Arteaga SS and Onil Perez C as well as former first round draft picks Hunter Bishop OF and Will Bednar RHP.  I do not see a high probability that any of them will be selected.

MLB Draft Reviews: Giants 2020 Draft

The 2020 draft was just 5 rounds due to the pandemic.  I'm not sure why the pandemic shortened the draft but probably mostly to save money on signing bonuses.  Anyway, we already saw how first round pick Patrick Bailey was arguably the best pick in the draft.   How did the Giants do in the other 5 rounds?  BTW, they had two extra picks at the end of round 2 due to losing Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith to free agency.

1.  Patrick Bailey C, College.

As we have discussed extensively, Bailey was an excellent first round pick in an extremely weak draft, possibly the best player in the entire draft.

2. Casey Schmitt 3B, College.

We all know Casey's story too.  He's at a crossroads in his career.  He has shown flashes of star potential or at least a solid MLB regular.  The main thing holding him back is a severe lack of plate discipline.  He was noticeably better after a late season return to the active roster.  Will he get a chance to show that wasn't a fluke in 2025?

2C.  Nick Swiney LHP, College.

2024(AA):  4-2, 5.25, 72 IP, 9.88 K/9, 4.13 BB/9.  

Those are not the kind of numbers to make you think Swiney is going to reach the big leagues anytime soon.

2C.  Jimmy Glowenke 2B, College.

2024(AA):  .199/.300/.309, 7 HR, 5 SB, 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K%, 392 PA. 

Also not the kind of numbers to make you think he will reach the majors anytime soon.

3.  Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.

2024:  7-7, 4.56, 124.1 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 0.8 fWAR.

Pretty solid rooking campaign for Harrison.  He seemed to tire in the second half or maybe the league got a book on him?  Finished the season on the IL with "mild" shoulder inflammation. Many analysts were calling for him to be shut down for the season anyway.  Strong candidate for a breakout in 2025 just due to normal development and added experience.

4.  R. J. Dabovich RHP, College.

Hard throwing college Closer.  Was on fast track to majors as a reliever but underwent hip surgery in 2023 and spend most of 2024 on the IL due to an undisclosed condition.  

5.  Ryan Murphy RHP, College.

2024(AA):  1-4, 3.35, 43 IP, 9.63 K/9, 2.93 BB/9.  

Pitched well before going on IL after June 1.  I was not able to find the nature or his injury.  Google search for Ryan Murphy injury showed his name but description of injury clearly referring to Tom Murphy C. Ryan Murphy spent time on the IL in 2022 with elbow inflammation.

Summary:

This would be a successful draft with Patrick Bailey alone.  Adding Kyle Harrison makes it excellent. If Casey Schmitt sustains his newfound plate discipline proves this could be one of the great Giants drafts of all time.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2020 First Round

 1.  Tigers:  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College.  

2024(AAA):  .239/.356/.442, 11 HR, 15.3 BB%, 30.9 K%, 275 PA.

2024(MLB:  .219/.295/.374, 10 HR, 8.7 BB%, 27.6 K%, 381 PA, 0.1 fWAR(1.5 in 2023).

Bat regressed badly after hitting 31 HR's at the MLB level in 2023.  Negative fielding metrics.

2.  Orioles:  Heston Kjerstad OF, College:  

2024(AAA):  .300/.397/.601, 16 HR, 12.4 BB%, 26.0 K%, 258 PA.

2024(MLB):  .253/.351/.394, 4 HR, 8.8 BB%, 28.9 K%, 114 PA, 0.3 fWAR

K rate is higher than ideal but appears poised to become a MLB regular with some power.

3.  Marlins:  Max Meyer RHP, College

2024(AAA):  1-3, 4.34, 58 IP, 10.71 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-5, 5.68, 57 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, -0.3 fWAR.

Undersized college P with a big arm.  Appeared to have the most advanced stuff of any pitcher in the draft.  May end up in retrospect as the classic high-floor/low-ceiling college prospect.

4.  Royals:  Asa Lacy LHP, College

Pitched ineffectively in 3 minor league seasons.  Has not pitched since 2022 and underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2024.

5.  Blue Jays:  Austin Martin SS, College

2024(AAA, Twins):  .305/.469/.379, 1 HR, 8 SB, 21.5 BB%, 11.5 K%, 130 PA.

2024(MLB, Twins):  .253/.318/.352, 1 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 257 PA,  -0.2 fWAR.

Disappointing pro career so far from Martin who was rated as the best pure hitter in the draft.  Has never played SS in the pros.  Traded to the Twins in July 2021 with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios.  Lack of power is his biggest deficiency hitting just 16 HR's in 1500 pro PA's. Negative defensive metrics.

6.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College

2024(AAA):  7-3, 3.43, 94.1 IP, 6.30 K/9, 3.53 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  4-4, 4.75, 60.2 IP, 5.79 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, -0.4 fWAR.

Pedestrian K/BB does not bode well for future success.

7.  Pirates:  Nick Gonzalez 2B, College

2024(AAA):  .356/.429/.600, 5 HR, 9.7 BB%, 16.2 K%, 154 PA.

2024(MLB):  .270/.311/.398, 7 HR, 4.7 BB%, 19.1 K%, 387 PA, 1.3 fWAR.

Can be a solid MLB 2B if he can improve on what was technically his rookie season with experience.

8.  Padres:  Robert Hassell III OF, HS

2024(A+):  .259/.276/.370, 3.4 BB%, 13.8 K%, 29 PA.

2024(AA):  .271/.357/.371, 11.0 BB%, 20.8 K%, 12 SB, 264 PA.

2024(AAA):  .125/.188/.156, 3 SB, 7.2 BB%, 24.6 K%, 69 PA.

Fangraphs capsule comment is his offensive performance "tanked" after trade to the Nationals for Juan Soto.  Fractured hamate after 2023 season.  Still has time to bounce back.

9.  Rockies:  Zac Veen OF, HS

2024(AA):  .268/.359/.457, 5 HR, 10 SB, 11.0 BB%, 26.2 K%, 145 PA.

2024(AAA):  .220/.281/.476, 6 HR, 6 SB, 7.6 BB%, 26.1 K%, 92 PA.

Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Veen's lefty swing is still vulnerable to inner-half velocity and he remains in a liminal prospect space more than he is a slam dunk big league star.

10.  Angels:  Reid Detmers LHP, College

2024:  4-9, 6.70, 87.1 IP, 11.23 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 0.7 fWAR.  

Slightly better than league-average SP in 2022 and 2023. Pitched a no-hitter in his 2022 rookie year.  Big regression in 2024 including a demotion to AAA.

11.  White Sox:  Garrett Crochet LHP, College

2024:  6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 4.7 fWAR.

Crochet was my highest rated pitcher in the draft.  Breakout performance in 2024.  Only deficiency is he doesn't get deep into games.  Intriguing trade target for a team willing to give up prospect capital to win now.

12.  Reds:  Austin Hendrick OF, HS

2024(AA):  .188/.243/.288, 11 HR, 14 SB, 5.3 BB%, 36.5 K%, 474 PA.

Has never had a K rate less than 35%.

13. Giants:  Patrick Bailey C, College

2024:  .234/.298/.339, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.7 BB%, 22.3 K%, 4.3 fWAR.

Gold glove catcher by a large margin.  Bat has faded in second half two seasons in a row.  Still has one of the highest values out of this draft.

14.  Rangers:  Justin Foscue 1B, College

2024(AAA):  .276/.420/.477, 9 HR, 17.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, 219 PA.

2024(MLB):  .048/.091/.071, 4.5 BB%, 40.9 K%, 44 PA, -0.8 fWAR.

Decent numbers at AAA but faceplanted in a small sample at the MLB level.  Not really what you are looking for in a guy who DH'd 11 games out of 14 even if he translated his AAA numbers to MLB.

15.  Phillies:  Mick Abel RHP, HS

2024(AAA):  3-12, 6.46, 108.2 IP, 9.69 K/9, 6.46 BB/9

Plus-plus stuff has not translated due to persistently high walk rates.

16.  Cubs:  Ed Howard SS, HS

2024(A+):  .234/.289/.310, 2 HR, 8 SB, 6.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 395 PA.

2024:(AAA):  .139/.205/.167, 4.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 41 PA.

Has tools but has never hit above .244 in the pros.  Stuck at A+ level for 3 seasons.

17.  Red Sox:  Nick Yorke, SS, HS

2024(AA, Red Sox):  .251/.325/.366, 4 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 18.3 K%, 197 PA.

2024(AAA, Red Sox):  .310/.408/.490, 6 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.

2024(AAA, Pirates):  .355/.431/.507, 2 HR, 7 SB, 10.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.

2024(MLB, Pirates):  .216/.286/.378, 2 HR, 2 SB, 9.5 BB%, 28.6 K%, 42 PA, -0.1 fWAR.

Many analysts thought Yorke was a huge reach when the Red Sox selected him in the draft.  Has put up some good batting lines but the knock on him is below average defense after moving off SS to 2B/OF.  Traded to the Pirates straight up for Quinn Priester RHP.

18.  D'Backs:  Bryce Jarvis RHP, College

2024:  1-2, 3.19, 59 IP, 5.76 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 5.12 FIP, -0.6 fWAR.  

I have to admit I was really high on Jarvis going into the draft and was disappointed when the Giants passed on him to draft Patrick Bailey.  Hmm.....seems like Michael Holmes and FZ know more about drafting than I do.

19.  Mets:  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS

2024(AAA, Cubs):  .255/.299/.509, 5 HR, 10 SB, 5.1 BB%, 27.4 K%, 117 PA.

2024(MLB, Cubs):  .237/.286/.384, 10 HR, 27 SB, 5.1 BB%, 23.9 K%, 410 PA, 2.7 fWAR.

Tooled up.  Traded from Mets to Cubs for Javier Baez IF and Trevor Williams RHP.  WAR value is in CF defense.  Can still develop into a 4-5 WAR player if bat progresses.

20.  Brewers:  Garrett Mitchell OF, College

2024:  .255/.342/.469, 8 HR, 11 SB, 11.2 BB%, 31.7 K%, 224 PA, 1.8 fWAR.

Tools galore with positive value in all phases of the game.  K rate limits future value unless he can bring it down.

21.  Cardinals:  Jordan Walker OF, HS

2024(AAA):  .263/.326/.445, 9 HR, 7 SB, 8.2 BB%, 19.4 K%, 377 PA.

2024(MLB):  .201/.253/.366, 5 HR, 5.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 178 PA.

Looked like the steal of the draft when he burst on the scene in 2023 but fell victim to the "sophomore jinx".  Future now uncertain.

22.  Nationals:  Cade Cavalli RHP, College

Missed entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.  Reinjured elbow during rehab assignment and was on a throwing program at the end of 2024 season.

23.  Guardians:  Carson Tucker SS, HS

Released on 7/3/2024.

24.  Rays:  Nick Bitsko RHP, HS

Has only pitched a total of 28.1 innings in pro ball due to a series of injuries.

25.  Braves:  Jared Shuster LHP, College

2024(AAA, White Sox):  0-1, 6.39, 12.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 2.13 BB/9

2024(MLB, White Sox):  2-5, 4.30, 73.1 IP, 6.87 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.

Traded to White Sox for Aaron Bummer LHP.  LOL Fangraphs:  "In Bummer Move, Braves Land Lefty Reliever for Pile of Ex-Prospects."

26.  A's:  Tyler Soderstrom C, HS

2024(AAA):  .279/.385/.607, 10 HR, 11.2 BB%, 24.5 K%, 143 PA.

2024(MLB):  .233/.315/.429, 9 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.9 K%, 213 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Drafted as a catcher out of HS.  Now starting 1B for the A's.  Bat still has a chance to be good enough for 1B.   Son of former Giants first round draft pick Steve Soderstrom.  

27.  Twins:  Aaron Sabato 1B, College

2024(AA):  .206/.303/.350, 10 HR, 8 SB, 10.9 BB%, 29.7 K%, 350 PA.

K rate is holding bat back.

28.  Yankees:  Austin Wells C, College

2024:  .229/.322/.395, 13 HR, 11.4 BB%, 21.0 K%, 414 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

Once again, Yankees find solid value at the bottom of the draft.  Some analysts thought Wells had the best bat in the draft but had questions about his catching defense.  Ironically most of WAR value in 2024 came on D.  

29.  Dodgers:  Bobby Miller RHP, College

2024(AAA):  0-1, 5.06, 7.76 K/9, 5.74 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 8.52, 8.36 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, -0.9 fWAR.

Very hard thrower but has not commanded his pitches at the MLB level and has been punished for it.

30.  Orioles:  Jordan Westburg IF, College

2024:  .264/.312/.481, 18 HR, 6 SB, 4.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 447 PA, 2.8 fWAR.  

Low walk rate is concerning but looks like he can be a solid regular at the MLB level.

Summary:  2020 draft is shaping up to be extraordinarily weak, possibly related to COVID interruption in development.  Giants taking Patrick Bailey is arguably the best pick in the draft.  Garrett Crochet, Pete Crow Armstrong and Austin Wells deserve mention as good picks.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2019 Giants Draft

I think most Giants fans think the 2029 draft was a total bust.  I know that has been my general impression.  While the first two picks did not develop as hoped, the draft is actually looking quite strong in later rounds.  

1.  Hunter Bishop OF, College:  Underslot- $640 K

As discussed extensively, finally had a healthy season in 2024 but needs to stay healthy and step up his game in 2025.  Still has outside shot at a MLB career with the Giants.

2.  Logan Wyatt 1B, College:  Underslot- $442, 500

Retired 8/10/2024.  Was the new "god of walks" in college.  Never got traction on his pro career.

3.  Grant McCray CF, HS:  Overslot- $6, 200

5-tool athlete who was raw when drafted.  Slow to find traction in the pros but advanced steadily over the last 3 seasons.  Ended 2024 as the Giants starting CF.  Probably needs a bit more seasoning but has a chance to be a plus player in all phases of the game.

4.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS, College:  Underslot- $$2,500

Ended 2024 as the Giants starting SS.  Buster Posey indicated he wants to add a SS this offseason and move Fitz to 2B or utility role.

5.  Garrett Frechette 1B, HS: Overslot- $425, 900

Released from A+ Eugene 7/23/2024.  Bat never developed.

6.  Dilan Rosario SS, HS: Overslot- $368, 200

Released from AA Richmond 7/24/2024.  Bat never developed.

7.  Armani Smith LF, College:  Overslot- $77, 300

Waived by AA Richmond and claimed by the Twins 12/7/2022.  Released from developmental ball 7/15/2023.  Looked like a promising power bat at A and A+ levels in 2021 but regressed badly after that.

8.  Caleb Kilian RHP, College:  Overslot- $221,200

2024(Cubs):  0-1, 4.22, 10.2 IP.   Traded to Cubs with Alex Canario for Kris Bryant.  Had a promising 2022 minor league season but struggled in several attempts to pitch at MLB level.  Missed most of 2024 with a Teres Major strain.

9.  Simon Whiteman SS, College:  Underslot- $132, 800

Released by AA Richmond 7/25/2023.  Speedy but undersized IF from Ivy League.  Currently enrolled in law school at Univ of Chicago.  

10.  Jeff Houghtby SS, College: Underslot- $123, 200

Played just one pro season in 2019 after the draft.  Retired 5/3/2021.

11.  Trevor McDonald RHP, College: Overslot- $700 K

Added to 40-man roster November 2023.  pitched at 4 minor league levels in 2024 after starting season on IL.  Started the final game of the season for the Giants with 3 shutout innings. Has 2 remaining options.

12.  Chris Wright LHP, College: Overslot- $25 K

Has pitched well in the minors as a lefty reliever/Closer.  Missed all of 2024 with an injury.  Currently on the AAA Sacramento roster.

13.  Harrison Freed OF, College: Slot

Released 3/27/2023.

14.  Nick Morreale RHP, College:  Overslot- $25 K

2024(A+):  3-3, 3.89, 44 IP, 10.23 K/9, 2.45 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-1, 1.70, 37 IP, 7.30 K/9, 3.16 BB/9.

Big RHP who for some reason got buried at A+ level for 4 seasons despite excellent numbers.  Finally got a promo to AA last season with a low ERA but his K/BB took a hit.  A GM out there looking to add talent via the Rule 5 Draft might want to get a scouting report on him.

15.  Carter Aldrete 3B, College:  Overslot- $25 K

Nephew of former Giant Mike Aldrete.  Released 1/10/2024.  Like many other hitting prospects his bat hit the wall at AA.

16.  Brandon Martorano C, College:  Overslot- $25 K

Released 8/7/2024.  Career minor league BA .220.

17.  Connor Cannon 1B, College:  Underslot- $100 K

Released 3/12/2024.  Traded to Yankees 6/1/2021.  Released by Yanks 8/31/2022.  Resigned by the Giants 2/17/2023.  "Light tower power" but already had bad knees when drafted and was only healthy enough to play in 2 minor league seasons.

18.  Cole Waites RHP, College:  Slot

Hard-throwing reliever/Closer type who got a cup of coffee in 2023 which did not go well. He then underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2024.  Some Giants-oriented bloggers are advocating for him to be added to the 40-man roster again to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.  

19.  Kanoa Pagan RHP, College:  Slot

Has pitched very sparingly due to multiple apparent injuries.  Still on the A San Jose Giants roster.

20.  Najee Gaskins OF, College:  Underslot- $25 K

Released 8/9/2022 despite a pro career BA of .285.

21.  Bryce Fehmel RHP, College: Underslot- $98 K.

Voluntarily retired 5/30/2022 after second UCL tear.

22.  Javeyan Williams OF, College: Underslot- $100 K

Released 8/12/2021 after batting .209 at two levels in his first full pro season.

23.  Taylor Rashi RHP, College: Underslot- $98 K

Claimed off waivers by the Reno Aces in the D'Backs organization 12/7/2022.  Pitched fairly well at two levels with the D'Backs in 2024.

24.  Evan Lumbert RHP, College:  Underslot- $98 K

Released 3/30/2022 despite a pro career ERA of 1.56

25.  Richard Rodriguez SS, HS: Not signed

26.  Nick Avila RHP, College:  Underslot- $50 K

Got some notice when he went 14-0 with a 3.00 ERA for AAA Sacramento in 2023.  A couple cups of coffee in early 2024 did not go well and he was released and signed by the Orioles then released by them 8/26/2024.  Getting to the major leagues is hard.  Staying there is harder. Tough business!

27.  Connor Beichler SS, HS:  Not signed

28.  Reese Sharp RHP,  HS:  Not signed

29.  Brooks Crawford RHP, College:  Underslot- $98 K

Claimed off waivers by the Reds organization 12/7/2022.  Looks like he is still in the Reds organization.

30.  Justin Crump RHP, College:  Underslot- $25 K

Released 8/15/2021 after recording a 5.94 ERA with the San Jose Giants.

Summary:  If McCray, Fitzgerald and McDonald become MLB regulars, which looks possible, this will be one of the stronger drafts in Giants history.  Bishop, Morreale and Waites still have outside shots at having MLB careers.

MLB Amateur Draft Review: 2019 Round One

After giving it some thought, I am inspired to get back to some draft content.  We'll do some reviews of past drafts to see what lessons might be learned and will start some scouting reports for the 2025 draft in which the Giants will likely end up selecting at #12 overall but could jump the line if they get lucky in the draft lottery.  When were the Giants last lucky in the draft?  

I think I was the first blogger/reporter to pick up FZ's spectacular failure in the first rounds of his drafts.  Of course the Sabean/Evans administratation also had a dismal record for at least 5 years prior but after reviewing those drafts it was apparent much of the problem was where the Giants were drafting rather than poor selecting.  We'll use the same process with FZ's drafts starting with 2019.

1. Orioles:  Adley Rutchsman C, College.  

2024 MLB:  .250/.318/.391, 19 HR, 9.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, 638 PA, 2.8 fWAR.  Down season after two 5+ fWAR seasons in 2022 and 2023.  Has fully played up to 1/1 pedigree.

2. Royals:  Bobby Witt Jr SS, HS.  

2024:  .332/.389/.588, 32 HR, 31 SB, 8.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 709 PA, 10.4 fWAR.

Possible future HOF.  What you dream about when you draft in the top 5 of the the first round.  Locked up on an 11 year contract for $289 M which looks like a bargain for the Royals at this point.

3.  White Sox:  Andrew Vaughn 1B, College.

2024:  .246/.297/.402, 19 HR, 6.1 BB%, 21.3 K%, 619 PA, -0.2 fWAR.  

The bat has not progressed as projected and he has terrible defensive metrics away from 1B.  Got the ball in the air more in 2024 but with more pop ups and a lower HR/FB.  Intriguing trade target for a team that thinks they can unlock the bat.

4.  Marlins:  J. J. Bleday OF, College.

2024(A's):  .243/.324/.437, 20 HR, 10.4 BB%, 19.5 K%, 642 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Took longer to reach the majors than you might expect from a first round draft pick from a program like Vanderbilt.  Traded from the Marlins to the A's for A J Puk LHP.  Turned in a decent season after struggling in 2022 and 2023. 

5.  Tigers:  Riley Greene OF, HS.

2024:  .262/.348/.479, 24 HR, 11.0 BB%, 26.7 K%, 548 PA, 4.0 fWAR.

Some thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft.  Has improved his numbers each of his first 3 MLB seasons.  Probably not a future HOF but should have a long solid MLB career.

6.  Padres:  C. J. Abrams SS, HS.

.246/.314/.433, 20 HR, 31 SB, 6.6 BB%, 21.3 K%, 602 PA, 1.9 fWAR.

This guy would be considered a star in the NL of the 1960's and '70's but in today's game his WAR value takes a hit from a low walk rate and mediocre fielding numbers.  Padres traded him as part of a package for Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

7.  Reds:  Nick Lodolo LHP, College.

2024:  9-6, 4.76, 9.52 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 115 IP, 2.1 fWAR.

Put up a 3.66 ERA in 103 IP his rookie season in 2022.  Numbers partially rebounded after a disastrous sophomore season.

8.  Rangers:  Josh Jung 3B, College.

2024:  .264/.298/.421, 7 HR, 4.3 BB%, 25.5 K%, 188 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Missed time with a wrist injury in 2024 but subpar K/BB's even when healthy don't bode well for a great career.

9. Braves:  Shea Langeliers C, College.

.224/.288/.450, 29 HR, 7.7 BB%, 27.2 K%, 534 PA, 2.0 fWAR.

High K rates will probably continue to suppress his BA but has legit power.  Disappointing defensive numbers.  Langeliers was traded from the Braves to the A's as part of a package for Matt Olson.  

10. Giants:  Hunter Bishop OF, College.

2024 AA:  .242/314/.358, 2 HR, 5 SB, 8.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, 105 PA.

2024 AAA:  .248/.318/.388, 9 HR, 10 SB, 8.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, 413.

I liked the pick at the time although I have never trusted college batting stats from Arizona. I think 2024 was the first healthy season for Bishop since he was drafted and after missing all of 2023.  K rate was still way too high. Maybe a new front office philosophy will trickle down enough for him to cut down on the K's. If you squint hard that might make him a legit prospect. But yeah, not a great pick in retrospect.

11.  Blue Jays:  Alek Manoah RHP, College.

2024:  1-2, 3.70, 24.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.  

Manoah was someone I liked for the Giants in this draft.  He burst on the scene in 2021 and went 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022.  He's been an enigma since.  He underwent Tommy John surgery midseason and probably won't pitch again until 2026.

12.  Mets:  Brett Baty 3B, HS.

2024:  .229/.306/.327, 4 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.6 K%, 171 PA, 0.5 fWAR.  

Has struggled with the transition to MLB but improved his BB% each season and at 24 yo still has time to break out.

13:  Twins:  Keoni Cavaco SS, HS.

2024(A+):  .144/.202/.327, 4 HR, 6.1 BB%, 43.9 K%, 114 PA.

Popped up late in the draft cycle and like many late pop-up prospects, he was a mirage.  Draft bust for the Twins who released him midseason.  He was picked up by the Astros but has a long way to go to regain prospect status.

14.  Phillies:  Bryson Stott SS, College.

2024:  .245/.315/.356, 11 HR, 32 SB, 9.3 BB%, 16.3 K%, 571 PA, 1.9 fWAR.  

Stott is the guy I thought the Giants were most likely to draft, partly because Bishop was off my board by #10.  Stott put up a 4.2 fWAR season in 2023 but regressed last season and looks like his longterm position is 2B rather than SS. He's not a great fielder at either position.

15.  Angels:  Will Wilson SS, College.

2024(AA):  .224/.299/.315, 5 HR, 6 SB, 9.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 360 PA.

2024(AAA):  .188/.300/.224, 10.0 BB%, 26 K%, 100 PA.

Perhaps not other deal is as symbolic of the failure of the FZ regime than him taking on Zack Cozart's $12 M contract to essentially get another first round pick from the 2019 draft.... which by now is all but a busted deal.  It's just extremely hard to see a path to a MLB career for Wilson at this point.

16.  D'Backs:  Corbin Carroll OF, HS.

2024:  .231/.322/.428, 22 HR, 35 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.0 K%, 684 PA, 4.0 fWAR.

I don't think it's a stretch to say you don't need hindsight to know Carroll should have been the Giants pitch at #10.  Maybe they were scared off by his relatively small stature but he's a true 5-tool athlete.  Maybe they thought he was a difficult sign but he signed for near slot at #16.  He'll always be the one who got away in my mind.

17.  Nationals:  Jackson Rutledge RHP, JC.

2024(AAA):  4-9, 6.40, 122.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 5.66 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-0, 3.24, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 2.16 BB/9.

Exciting size and velocity coming out of JC ball, but never developed command.  At this point projects as a relief arm at best.

18.  Pirates:  Quinn Priester RHP, HS.

2024(2 teams):  3-6, 4.71, 49.2 IP, 5.98 K/9, 2.54 BB/9.

HS pitching prospect who did not develop as hoped for the Pirates. Multi-pitch mix but none are dominant and FB is low 90's.  Traded to the Red Sox for another former first rounder who needed a change of scenery, Nick Yorke SS.  

19.  Cardinals:  Zack Thompson LHP, College.

2024:  0-2, 9.53, 17 IP, 10.59 K/9, 4.24 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  4-6, 4.40, 90 IP, 10.80 K/9, 5.60 BB/9.

Has split time between AAA and MLB last 3 seasons.  Regressed in 2024 after promising 2022 and 2023. Per Fangraphs, FB velocity was down from 94.8 in 2022 to 91.4.

20.  Mariners:  George Kirby RHP, College.

2024:  14-11, 3.53, 191 IP, 8.43 K/9, 1.08 BB/9.

Incredibly consistent workhorse with almost identical lines the past two seasons.  

21.  Braves:  Braden Shewmake SS, College.

2024(White Sox):  .125/.134/.203, 1.5 BB%, 14.9 K%, 67 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Traded by the Braves in a package to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer P.  Numbers took a disastrous turn along with almost the entire White Sox organization.  What's going on there?

22.  Rays:  Greg Jones OF, College.

2024(Rockies, AAA):  .269/.346/.460, 16 HR, 46 SB, 9.1 BB%, 35.2 K%, 406 PA.  

2024(Rockies, MLB:  .200/.333/.800, HR, 6 PA.  

Speedy OF with some pop but with extreme K rate.  Only MLB hit is a HR.  Traded from Rays to Rockies for Joe Rock P in March 2024.

23.  Rockies:  Michael Toglia 1B, College.

2024:  .218/.311/.456, 25 HR, 11.8 BB%, 32.1 K%, 458 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Nice power but high K rate, low BA and subpar defense at 1B limit his value.  

24.  Guardians:  Daniel Espino RHP, HS.

Last pitched in 2022 and underwent reconstructive surgery on his shoulder after a promising start to his pro career in the lower minors. That's the risk of drafting HS pitchers.

25.  Dodgers:  Kody Hoese 3B, College.

2024(AAA):  .287/.361/.474, 17 HR, 9.9 BB%, 19.8 K%, 525 PA.  

Decent line at AAA after spending 3 seasons at AA.  

26.  D'Backs:  Blake Walston LHP, HS.

2024(AAA):  3-2, 4.85, 65.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 4.29 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  1-0, 4.42, 18.1 IP, 8.84 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.

AAA Reno is a tough place to pitch, but Fangraphs listed FB velocity of 91.4 not encouraging nor is walk rates.

27.  Cubs:  Ryan Jensen RHP, College.

2024(AAA, Twins):  4-5, 4.76, 56.2 IP, 12.86 K/9, 7.94 BB/9.

Has churned through multiple organizations since being DFA'd by the Cubs in 2023.  Tough to see a MLB future with that walk rate.

28.  Brewers:  Ethan Small LHP, College.

Hey!  He's currently in the Giants organization and on the 40-man MLB roster.  Spent most of 2024 on the IL due to an oblique strain suffered in the spring.

29.  A's:  Logan Davidson 1B, College.

2024(AAA):  .300/.366/.535, 14 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 31.1 K%, 310 PA.

Currently listed as a SS but plays multiple positions.  Seems like the A's could give him a shot at one of them.

30. Yankees:  Anthony Volpe SS, HS.

2024:  .243/.293/.364, 12 HR, 28 SB, 6.1 BB%, 22.6 K%, 689 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

You know who Volpe is if you had the stomach to watch the World Series between the two evil empires.  Yanks have a knack for finding value with late first round draft picks.

Summary:

This was FZ's and Scouting Director Michael Holmes first draft with the Giants. On top of that, Holmes wife died from cancer complications shortly before the draft so I'm not going to be too harsh.  I am not aware of any major red flags on Hunter Bishop and he had an outstanding college batting line.  Unfortunately it looks like this was a strong draft with value throughout the first round and relatively few busts.  Probably still too early to give up on Bishop but he has to step up in 2025.  The apparent failure of Will Wilson to reward the $12 M cost of taking on Zack Cozart's contract makes this draft even more painful for Giants fans.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Two Minor League Contracts

We are still in the early stages of the Hot Stove League.  The GM meetings came and went without any major transactions but they usually lay the groundwork for Winter Meeting deals.   There are a couple of minor league deals with invitations to spring training to report and comment on though.  

Logan Porter C.  DOB:  7/12/1995.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0"/200 lbs.  

2024 AAA(3 teams):  .267/.370/.453, 14 HR, 13.4 BB%, 28.1 K%, 292 PA.

AAAA catcher who is so obscure I forgot he had 85 PA's with the River Cats in 2024.  His stat line is one FZ would love.  His BA was not terrible but clear 3 true outcomes vibes here.  He had positive defensive metrics in a very small MLB sample size in 2023.

Sergio Alcantara IF.  DOB:  7/10/1996.  B-S, T-R.  5'9", 151 lbs.

2024 AAA:  .279/.391/.434, 8 HR, 8 SB, 15.3 BB%, 18.2 K%, 450 PA.

Career MLB:  .209/.281/.343, 12 HR, 4 SB, 8.8 BB%, 26.9 K%, 502 PA.

Intriguing, switch-hitting AAAA IF who last played at the MLB level in 2022.  Although he plays multiple IF positions his best defensive metrics are at SS.  Will replace Donovan Walton on the IF depth charts.

*************************************************************************************

Baggs stirred the pot again yesterday with a piece in the Athletic about the Giants ownership group cutting payroll for 2025.  Buster Posey refused to take the bait and said he would not comment on payroll.  Controlling owner Greg Johnson released a statement saying there is not set payroll and it all depends on what players are available and how much it costs to sign them.

If I read the tea leaves coming out of Buster's comments at the GM meetings, I would say we should not expect signings of Juan Soto, Blake Snell or even Willy Adames.  The clear signal is the Giants #1 target is Ha Seong Kim who fits Buster's stated vision of emphasizing pitching, defense and contact.  I think Kim is a great fit except we already know he won't be ready to start the season on time due to shoulder surgery.  As we saw too many times with FZ's signings of players coming off injuries, it often takes longer for players to make it all the way back than projected. By the time they are fully healthy and ready to contribute the contract runs out and they end up helping another team.  

I would like to see Buster pursue upgrades via trade.  I spent 6 years waiting for FZ to really impress me with a trade.  He never did.  Now Buster is on the clock.

Blogger's Note

Hey team!  I might not be posting daily for awhile as I have hit a bit of writer's block on what to write about.  Will post when there are significant developments in the Hot Stove League.  Still plan to post my Top 50 Giants Prospects list in late December or early January.  

Any suggested topics appreciated.

Thanks everybody! 

Giants Depth Charts: Closer

It's pretty much impossible to do a depth chart on all relievers, especially when you get down into the minor leagues, but there is usually a fairly clear hierarchy of Closers.  let's break it down:

MLB:

Ryan Walker RHP:  10-4, 1.91, 80 IP, 11.14 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 10 Saves, 14 SvO.

Camilo Doval RHP:  5-3, 4.88, 59 IP, 11.90 K/9, 5.95 BB/9, 23 Saves, 28 SvO.

Interesting that while Walker was the far better pitcher in 2024, he only blew 1 less Save in half the number of opportunities.  There was that one game late in the season where Doval appeared to have no total loss of control of the strike zone then after a prolonged discussion between Melvin and the Umps over some technicality Doval suddenly start throwing strikes again.  I would say the Closer role is Walker's to lose but feel there is a high probability of Doval regaining it during the season.  The Giants should tender Doval a contract and they should not trade him as they would almost certainly be selling low on a high-ceiling talent.  If forced to name a third string, I think I would go with Landon Roupp RHP if he is not in the rotation.  Jordan Hicks RHP is also a possibility if he is not in the rotation.  Spencer Bivens RHP led the AAA River Cats in Saves so he may be a possibility too.

AAA:

Tyler Myrick RHP:  3-2, 3.18, 34 IP, 19 BB, 37 K, 7 Saves, 8 SvO.

Myrick had a strong minor league season and seems poised for a call up sometime in 2025.

AA:  

Nick Garcia RHP:  0-2, 1.54, 35 IP, 14 BB, 40 K, 5 Saves, 5 SvO.

Garcia was drafted in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last year.  Would the Giants add him to the 40 man roster to protect him from the major league phase this year?

A+:

Cameron Cotter RHP:  6-4, 2.27, 47.2 IP, 9 BB, 48 K, 5 Saves, 9 SvO.

Hunter Dula RHP:  1-2, 3.19, 36.2 IP, 12 BB, 37 K, 5 Saves, 8 SvO.

A: 

Cole Hillier RHP:  4-4, 3.70, 58.1 IP, 34 BB, 62 K, 6 Saves, 10 SvO.

Trent Harris RHP:  3-1, 1.14, 31.2 IP, 12 BB, 44 K, 4 Saves, 4 SvO.

Giants Depth Charts: Starting Pitcher

If there is a strength in the Giants organization right now, it's young starting pitching both at the MLB level and upper minor leagues but with Blake Snell likely leaving via free agency, Logan Webb stands alone as the only true rellable frontline starter on the staff. 

MLB:

Logan Webb RHP:  13-10, 3.47, 7.56 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 204.2 IP.

Robbie Ray LHP:  3-2, 4.70, 12.62 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, 30.2 IP.

Jordan Hicks RHP:  4-7, 4.10, 7.88 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 109.2 IP.

Hayden Birdsong RHP:  5-6, 4.75, 11.00 K/9, 5.38 BB/9, 72 IP.

Kyle Harrison LHP:  7-7, 4.56, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 124.1 IP.

Landon Roupp RHP:  1-2, 3.58, 8.40 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 50.1 IP.

Tristan Beck RHP:  0-0, 1.69, 7.88 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 16 IP.

Keaton Winn RHP:  3-8, 7.16, 7.81 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 55.1 IP.

Mason Black RHP:  1-5, 6.44, 7.68 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 36.1 IP.

Trevor McDonald RHP: 0-0, 0.00, 3.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3 IP.

There is deep depth here, enough to consider trading from it to upgrade other positions.  Very thin at the top though as Logan Webb is the only reliable established SP and his arm is starting to accumulate some serious mileage.  Acquiring at least one more proven top end SP should be a priority for Buster this winter.

AAA:  

Carson Whisenhunt LHP:  3-5, 5.42, 11.61 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 134.1 IP.

Carson Seymour RHP:  7-10, 4.82, 8.84 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 134.1 IP.

Carson Ragsdale RHP:  2-4, 5.03, 9.56 K/9, 4.36 BB/9, 53.2 IP.

John Bertrand LHP:  1-0, 1.80, 5.40 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 10 IP.

More depth.  Any of these 4 could make the MLB club at some point in 2025.

AA:  

Nick Sinacola RHP:  5-2, 4.08,  68.1 IP, 7.77 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 68.1 IP.

Jack Choate LHP: 1-4, 5.82,  10.85 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 34 IP.

Seth Lonsway LHP: 2-1, 1.38, 7.16 K/9, 1.93 K/9, 32.2 IP.

Dylan Cumming RHP: 3-7, 5.03,  9.62 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 82.1 IP.

Wil Jensen RHP: 4-5, 3.43, 10.61 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 84 IP.

My impression is everyone in this group has a relatively low ceiling.

A+:  

Joe Whitman LHP:  2-3, 4.96, 9.23 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 52.2 IP.

Dylan Carmouche LHP:  0-2, 5.34, 11.57 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 30.1 IP.

Manuel Mercedes RHP:  4-9, 5.28, 6.91 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 116 IP.

Cesar Perdomo LHP:  3-6, 4.00, 9.17 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 54 IP.

Hayden Wynja LHP:  2-3, 4.95, 9.43 K/9, 3.67 BB/9, 56.1 IP.

Esmerlin Vinicio LHP:  1-4, 7.40, 8.14 K/9, 7.03 BB/9, 24.1 IP.

Mikell Manzano RHP:  1-0, 4.05, 10.80 K.9, 0.00 BB/9, 6.2 IP.  

A somewhat disappointing season for Whitman.  Mercedes is a classic sinker/groundball pitcher with low K rates who is subject to the BABIP gods.  Perdomo has a below-average FB but good command of multiple pitches.  Wynja is 6' 9" and lefties that tall don't grow on trees.

A:  

Cale Lansville RHP:  3-4, 4.36, 8.35 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 74.1 IP.

Josh Bostick RHP:  4-7, 4.70, 10.15 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 107.1 IP.

Gerelmi Maldonado RHP: DNP

Ryan Vanderhei RHP: 2-3, 3.58, 8.84 K/9, 4.78 BB/9, 37.2 IP.

Ubert Mejias RHP:  4-7, 4.70, 6.24 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 122.2 IP.

Lansville has had some big games in the AFL.  Bostick has a MLB frame with inconsistent command.  Hope to see Gerelmi on the comeback trail in 2025.  Vanderhei has a projectable frame.

ACL:  None

DSL:

Argenis Cayama RHP: 0-1, 2.21, 10.18 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, 20.1 IP.

Don't know much about him except this was his age 1 season and he got a mention in Baseball America.

Summary:

The Giants are well-stocked with young pitching in the upper levels of the organization but have concentrated heavily on position players in the last several drafts and international signing cycles so almost no serious pitching prospects in the rookie/short season leagues.

Hot Stove Update: Zack Minasian is Posey's Pick for GM; Soler Traded Again

It didn't take long for the Hot Stove to heat up as the morning after the World Series ended. We saw a flurry of options picked up and declined plus a couple more significant moves.  

I'm guessing Buster Posey knew who his GM was at least a few days ago and was waiting for the end of the postseason to announce it.  He went inside the organization to elevate Zack Minasian from VP of Professional Scouting to GM.  While Zack has an interesting and extensive pedigree, I think that quite irrelevant to the decision.   What I think is relevant is he was one of Farhan Zaidi's first hires out of the Brewers organization and FZ promoted him to the professional scouting role.  I also think it's relevant that his experience is on the professional scouting side as opposed to amateur.  To me, this suggests Buster want to hit the ground running at the upcoming GM and Winter Meetings and wants someone in the GM seat who already has extensive knowledge of the players they may pursue in trades and free agent signings.  That seems like a smart move on Buster's part, especially if his agenda is not to work through a 5-year rebuild.  

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Poor Jorge Soler is getting passed around like a hot potato.  The other very early Hot Stove League news was the Braves trading him to the Angels for Griffin Canning RHP.  The trade was straight up, no money changing hands and no other players.  The move makes more sense from the Braves end as Soler was redundant with Marcel Ozuna and they get an innings-eating SP in return.  The Angels had the second worst pitching in MLB last season and the third worst hitting, so this trade seems like a bit of wheel spinning.  I will say the free agent pitching class this Hot Stove League season seems a lot deeper than the hitting class so maybe the Angels figure Canning is easier to replace than signing a hitter or two.

Giants Depth Charts: Designated Hitter

Ironically, despite the double of the number of available DH jobs there are fewer dedicated full-time DH's in the game as the industry has moved toward using the role as a rotational way to give position players a rest day while keeping them in the lineup.  I tend to favor a full time DH as it offers a chance to significantly upgrade the lineup with a hitter who would otherwise be a liability on the field.  

Last season FZ went out and signed a DH, Jorge Soler, who got off to a slow start with disappointing power numbers.  I read somwhere that Soler blamed his power outage on Oracle Park but to my eye the biggest problem was while he hit the ball hard, he rarely got enough loft on the ball to hit it out of any park.  As the season progressed, Bob Melvin put him in the leadoff spot where he thrived and was one of the better hitters in a weak lineup.  FZ traded him at the deadline and didn't really replace him in a move that seemed both petulant and running up the white flag on the season.   The trade did clear $12 M/yr from payroll for the next two seasons which can now be allocated elsewhere but it not like it was an albatross contract.  

The other point I'll make about the DH position is while you want to fill it with your best available hitter who otherwise would not contribute in the field, all things being equal I think if you use a primary DH, it should preferably be a lefty batter to give you the matchup advantage 75% of the PA's which is why I advocated for Brandon Belt for the the role last season.  Buster might still want to consider bringing the bigger Brandon back for one more rodeo at the DH position in 2025.

Of players currently on the 40-man roster, Jerar Encarnacion is probably #1 on the depth chart. Although part of me is curious to see what Jerar could do with 600 PA's as DH you really want a more seasoned hitter in the role.  Wilmer Flores would also be a consideration if the Giants let him hang around after he exercises his player option.

I also don't count out David Villar, Marco Luciano or Wade Meckler for the role and I am sure Bryce Eldridge will do his share of DH'ing after he makes his MLB debut.

Free agents who MLBTR lists as DH's includes J. D. Martinez(37 yo), Andrew McCutchen(38 yo), Anthony Santander(30 yo, also listed for RF), Justin Turner(40 yo) Tyler O'Neill(30 yo) and Jesse Winker(30 yo).  Not exactly an exciting bunch there.

Giants Depth Charts: Right Field

 Right field is a position primed for upgrade this offseason.  

MLB:

Mike Yastrzemski:  .231/.302/.437, 9 3B, 18 HR, 3 SB, 474 PA.

Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.  

YtY is the current incumbent, possibly in a R-L platoon with Jerar or Luis Matos.  This is one of the more likely positions for Buster to look for an upgrade starting with the consensus #1 free agent on the market, Juan Soto.  Speaking of Juan Soto, is it just me or has his defense in much easier RF's to play been disastrous in the World Series?  Other free agent RF's include Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander.  If one is signed by the arbitration tender deadline, I could see YtY not getting a contract offer or he could be moved to a 4'th OF role backing up all 3 positions.

AAA:  

Hunter Bishop:  .248/.318/.388, 9 HR, 10 SB, 413 PA.  

If Bishop can build on a healthy season after missing all of 2023, I could see him getting a midseason call up depending on organizational needs at the MLB level.  2025 is probably his last chance to find traction on his pro career.

AA:  

Victor Bericoto:  .261/.309/.384, 11 HR, 6 SB, 479 PA.

As commenters have said, don't sleep on Victor Bericoto.  He's a hitter.  I could see him busting out in Sacramento and getting a midseason callup, again determined by needs at the MLB level.

A+:

James Tibbs III:  A:  .415/.429/.512, 2.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 42 PA.  A+:  .134/.216/.239, 2 HR, 9.5 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.  

Rodolfo Nolasco:  .234/.331/.418, 10 HR, 9 SB, 10.9 BB%, 35.3 K%, 275 PA.

Tibbs had a disappointing pro debut for a first round draft pick out of a major college conference, but it's a small sample.  He needs to start 2025 at A+ and get his K rate below 30% while keeping his BB% closer to 10 than 0.  Nolasco has in interesting power/speed combo but needs to cut down on his K rate.

A:  

Cesar Quintas:  .228/.320/.386, 12 HR, 3 SB, 8.6 BB%, 21.8 K%, 440 PA.

Saw him play. Good looking young hitter.  Smoked a HR to LF that went out on a line.  K/BB looks good but needs to hit for more average.  Maybe his low BABIP of .270 will positively regress?  

ACL:

None

DSL: 

Carlos Concepcion:  .244/.362/.366, 3 HR, 7 SB, 11.6 BB%, 30.7 K%, 199 PA.

18 yo who regressed a little in his second DSL season.

Summary:

Opportunity to upgrade RF seems to align with available free agents.  Buster's challenge is getting one signed.

Giants Depth Charts: Centerfield

On paper, this critically important position is locked down by for at least the next 3 seasons by Jung Hoo Lee but he is coming off a major injury/surgery, fortunately on his non-throwing shoulder.  

MLB:

Jung Hoo Lee:  .262/.310/.331, 2 HR, 2 SB, 6.3 BB%, 8.2 K%, 156 PA.

Grant McCray:  .202/.238/.379, 5 HR, 5 SB, 4.6 BB%, 43.1 K%, 130 PA.

Luis Matos:  .202/.238/.379, 5 HR, 3.2 BB%, 15.4 K%, 156 PA.

Wade Meckler:  AAA:  .288/.357/.508, 8 HR, 3 SB, 196 PA.

Giants are in a bit of a weird situation in that Lee is paid a whole lot of money to be the starting CF for at least the next 3 years(I think he has a opt out after his 4'th season.  The weirdness comes from Grant McCray obviously having louder tools and a higher ceiling.  That situation can be easily defused by giving McCray the salt he needs with more time in AAA.  The other reason for optimism is almost everybody expected a transition period from the KBO to MLB for Lee.  There were signs he might be coming out of his early season struggles with .310 BA over his last 7 games before he was hurt, but does he start over now?  Also note Mike Yastrzemski would be #2 except he's the starter in RF.  One likely scenario is the Giants sign a RF in free agency and move YtY to a 4'th OF role in which he would be the #2 CF.  Less likely the Giants will not tender him a contract offer at the arbitration deadline and he becomes a free agent.

AAA:

Hunter Bishop:  (2 teams) .245/.315/.380, 11 HR, 15 SB, 518 PA.  

Bishop is probably not a CF at the MLB level but played about 1/3 of his games there in the minors this season.

AA: 

Carter Howell:  .272/.347/.391, 30 2B, 7 3B, 3 HR, 15 SB, 9.3 BB%, 19.6 K%, 505 PA.

Turner Hill:  A+:  .270/.383/.414, 3 HR, 15 SB, 13.5 BB%, 10.1 K%, 207 PA.  AA:  .266/.364/.324, 14 SB, 10.8 BB%, 14.0 K%, 222 PA.

A couple of UDFA's who more than held their own in a notoriously hitter-unfriendly environment.  No defensive scouting reports but both appear to have enough speed to play CF.  Both need a bit more HR power.

A+:

Jonah Cox:  A:  .297/.412/.384, 2 HR, 38 SB, 13.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 275 PA.  A+:  .225/.324/.350, 3 HR, 20 SB, 11.9 BB%, 31.9 K%, 185 PA.

A:  

Bo Davidson:  .328/.438/.608, 7 3B, 9 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 23.9 K%, 226 PA.

Jose Ortiz:  ACL:  .306/.455/.400, HR, 10 SB, 12.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 112 PA.  

Bo Davidson is another UDFA with some size and tools.  Probably too advanced for A ball.  Getting a few more higher level PA's in the AFL.  Should start next season at A+ and we'll get a better feel for his potential.  Ortiz was a HS draftee out of Puerto Rico in 2023 so still has some time to develop.

ACL:

Rayner Arias:  .250/.371/.364, 8 2B, 3 SB, 11.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 105 PA. 

Don't forget about Rayner Arias.  One of the most highly rated international prospects from the 2023 cycle.  Early development slowed by a wrist injury.  Looking forward to seeing what he can do another winter of recovery.

DSL:

Oliver Tejada:  .300/.405/.488, 5 HR, 13 SB, 10.7 BB%, 18.5 K%, 205 PA.

Miguel Blanco:  .255/.398/.336, 5 SB, 17.5 BB%, 20.5 K%, 171 PA.

Luis Frias:  .224/.327/.329, HR, 13 SB, 10.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, 143 PA.

Baseball America had high praise for the Giants 2024 international signing cycle.  Tejada was one of those signings who performed well in his pro debut.  Blanco and Frias are 19 and 20 yo respectively and probably too old to be considered Dominican Dandies.

Summary: 

The Giants have a lot riding on a comeback from Jung Hoo Lee after a devastating injury.  Grant McCray has a higher ceiling but needs more seasoning.  There are some intriguing prospects in between but Rayner Arias is the next highly rated CF prospect but he's been long projected to end up in a corner OF position. Time will tell.

Giants Depth Charts: Left Field

Outfield depth charts get tricky since many outfielders can play more than one defensive OF position.  The rule for this exercise is if a player is listed as the starter at one position they can't be a back up at another position but a back up player can back up multiple position.  Got it?  Good!  

MLB:  

Heliot Ramos:  .269/322/.469, 22 HR, 6 SB, 518 PA.  

Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.

Wade Meckler:  Minors(5 teams):  .280/.366/.423, 9 HR, 9 SB, 383 PA.

Ramos had a breakthrough season and was one of the more consistent producers at the plate.  His numbers did regress some in the second half, but did not crater.  Can he apply the lessons he learned from this season and take it to the next level in 2025?  He certainly deserves that opportunity and is the presumptive staring LF.  Encarnacion has tremendous raw power but needs to cut down on the K's to turn it into game power.  Wade Meckler put on an impressive power surge over the final 6 weeks of the season in the minors. The rest of his game has always been solid so he deserves another look at the MLB level at some point.

AAA:  

Hunter Bishop:  .245/.316/.386, 9 HR, 10 SB, 413 PA.  

This was by far Bishop's best pro season.  His development has been delayed by COVID and a series of injuries.  Will the Giants keep him around for another season to see if he can build on his modest success?

AA:

Ismael Munguia:  AA:  .317/.404/.461, 5 HR, 11 SB, 194 PA.  AAA:  .250/.368/.368, 2 HR, 7 SB, 178 PA.

Jairo Pomares:  .238/.280/.434, 12 HR, 9 SB, 336 PA.

Matt Higgins:  .262/.339/.330, HR, 2 SB, 119 PA.

A+:

Rodolfo Nolasco:  .234/.331/.418, 10 HR, 9 SB, 275 PA.

Alexander Suarez:  .282/.323/.475, 9 HR, 15 SB, 217 PA.

Scott Bandura:  A:  .276/.389/.362, 5 SB, 126 PA.  A+:  .227/.332/.374, 6 HR, 19 SB, 247 PA.

Nolasco was acquired from the Pirates in May for Daulton Jeffries in The Churn.  He's got some tools but needs to make more contact.  Suarez is as tooled up as anyone in the organization but has developed slowly.  Bandura also has some tools but needs to get bigger and stronger.

A:  

Lisbel Diaz: ACL:  .329/.411/.539, 4 HR, 90 PA.  A:  .279/.333/.433, 6 HR, 8 SB, 255 PA.

Jakob Christian:  .267/.378/.500, HR, 37 PA.  

Diaz is going to jump way up on prospect lists after an excellent age 18 season.  Christian is a big college slugger who needs a bigger pro sample to get a read on.

Summary:  

Left Field looks like Heliot's job to lose for the next 4-5 seasons.  I am excited long term for Lisbel Diaz but he has at least 2-3 seasons of development ahead of him. 

Giants 2024 Minor League Season Reviews: AAA Sacramento River Cats

 MLB teams using their AAA affiliates for roster depth is nothing new but under Farhan Zaidi's regime the Sacramento River Cats were integral to The Churn with resulting roster chaos for the affiliate.  FZ did deploy more younger, rising prospects at the level but they tended to not stay long due to his peripatetic promotions over the past two seasons and if they flamed out with the Giants, well, they just got sent back down!  Here are the numbers:

Batting Average(min. 100 PA's): 

Jerar Encarnacion OF:  .352

Donovan Walton IF:  .306

Trenton Brooks 1B/OF:  .302

Brett Wisely IF:  .301

Heliot Ramos OF:  .296.

Doubles:  

David Villar IF:  26

Luis Matos OF:  22

Jakson Reetz C:  20

Triples:

Brett Auerbach UT:  4

Grant McCray OF:  4

Donovan Walton IF:  4

Home Runs:

David Villar:  16

Luis Matos:  14

Casey Schmitt IF:  13.

Stolen Bases:

Casey Schmitt:  11

Blake Sabol C/OF:  11

Hunter Bishop OF:  10

Trenton Brooks:  10

ERA(min 50 IP):

Tommy Romero RHP:  3.14

Justin Garza RHP:  3.42

Mason Black RHP:  4.59

Carson Seymour RHP:  4.82

Strikeouts:

Carson Whisenhunt LHP:  135

Carson Seymour RHP:  132

Clay Helvey RHP:  97

Summary: 

Buster Posey and his new GM will have quite a task sorting through this rather motley crew deciding who are keepers and who to move on from.  Hopefully they will dial back on The Churn and the frantic promotion schedule, or non-schedule, and concentrate on skill development which takes time and patience.

Giants Depth Charts: Shortstop

As we head into the Hot Stove League, the Giants have a clear #1 on their shortstop depth chart, Tyler Fitzgerald.  The question is whether he will still be #1 when spring training starts.  We'll look at who is backing him up and who the Giants might bring in during Hot Stove action.  

MLB:

Tyler Fitzgerald:  .280/.334/.497, 15 HR, 17 SB, 341 PA.

Brett Wisely:  .238/.278/.345, 4 HR, 272 PA.

Donovan Walton:  .136/.240/.273, 25 PA.

Casey Schmitt:  .252/.283/.477, 6 HR, 113 PA.

Fitz' numbers took a nosedive over the final month of the season.  Was he out of gas or did the league's pitchers get a book on him?  He wasn't great on defense but was he that bad?  IMO, the best metric for defense is Fangraphs UZR/150.  Fitz was at -2.0 which ranked #22 out of SS's who played at least 500 innings.  For reference, Anthony Volpe of the Yankees was at 0.0, Trea Turner was at -1.1, Masyn Winn was at -3.8, Elly De La Cruz -9.5 and Carlos Correa -9.7.  If Fitz can maintain or improve his offensive production and overcome some rookie mistakes, he's a viable starting SS, IMO. That's not to say if the Giants have a chance to sign Willy Adames they shouldn't do it.

AAA: 

Christian Koss(3 teams):  .299/.376/.496, 9 HR, 13 SB. 

Dariel Lopez:  DNP

Will Wilson(2 teams):  .216/.299/.296.

Koss is an interesting depth option.  Lopez spend the entire season on the IL and has not played since 2022.  We've discussed Will Wilson several times. Hard to see him not being released by the new management regime.

AA:

Diego Velasquez(2 teams):  .288/.368/.384, 4 3B, 4 HR, 21 SB, 488 PA.

Velasquez is a serious prospect who was an international bonus baby in 2021, is still just 21 yo and has another year of development before he has to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft.  He more than held his own after a promotion to AA which is where many positional prospects hit the wall.  Prospects who can play at AA are generally considered almost ready to play MLB.  He might actually be #2 on the depth chart behind Fitzgerald.

A+: 

Aeverson Arteaga(2 teams):  .209/.308/.319, HR, 3 SB, 104 PA.

Cole Foster(2 teams):   .213/.293/.318, 11 HR, 9 SB, 335 PA.

I've been bullish on Arteaga but he lost most the the season to an injury.  2025 will be critical to see if he can fully recover.  He's a guy who still needed a lot of development before the injury.  Foster has been a disappointment at the plate since he was a 3'rd round draft pick in 2023.

A:  

Zander Darby:  .234/.351/.489, 4 HR, 57 PA.

Walker Martin(2 levels):  .218/.391/.362, 8 HR, 6 SB, 128 K, 312 PA.

Maui Ahuna(2 levels):  .268/.369/.394, 4 HR, 8 SB, 149 PA.

Ramon Peralta(2 levels):  .239/.352/.374, 194 PA.

An interesting collection of prospects here.  Darby is the new draftee out of college who could be a fast riser.  Martin is a bit of an enigma so far.  Shows great size and tools but the K rate is through the roof even for a HS draftee in his first full season.  Will need to figure out how to cut those down.  Ahuna is a plus defensive SS when healthy.  Can he stay healthy and will he hit enough?  Peralta has been slow riser.  Signed in the same internations cycle as Diego Velasquez.

ACL:  

None.  

Martin, Ahuna and Peralta took most of the innings at SS here before moving up late.

DSL:

Jhonny Level:  .275/.393/.517, 10 HR, 18 SB, 215 PA.

Yosneiker Rivas:  .245/.408/.345, 181 PA.

Keiberg Camacaro:  .225/.398/.314, 4 SB, 133 PA.

Jhonny Level is one of the more exciting young prospects in the Giants system.  I am pretty sure I will rank him in at least the top 10 of my Top 50 Giants prospect list.  I was hoping to see more of a progression from Camacaro after he got a full DSL season at age 16 and showed some pop and speed.

2024-2025 Free Agent Shortstops:

Willy Adames

Ha Seong Kim($8 M mutual option with $2 M buyout):

Nick Ahmed

Tim Anderson

Brandon Crawford

I only put Ahmed, Anderson and Crawford on the list to show how shallow it is.  Adames and Kim are really the only upgrades available and Kim comes with significant injury concerns.

Summary:  I would say the Giants should go after Kim except he just had surgery to repair the labrum on his shoulder and throwing is kind of important for a SS.  He is also not expected to be ready to start the season although may be fairly early.  I just think we saw enough of signing players coming off injuries in the FZ Era.  Willy Adames is definite substantial upgrade, but the only one on the market and there will be a whole lot of teams pursuing him.  If it's not Adames, I would say stick with Fitzgerald with Diego Velasquez coming up fast as depth.  Beyond Velasquez the organization has multiple interesting prospects in the pipeline and could get a big addition if they sign the #1 international prospect in January as expected.

Thoughts on Juan Soto

Let's take a break from grinding through the Giants Minor League Season Reviews and Depth Charts and dream a little.  As you may have noticed, I haven't had much to say about the postseason since the mission of this blog is to chronicle my thoughts on Giants baseball and the Giants aren't in the postseason!  I have been half-heartedly watching the games, though, and a couple of things are striking to me:  1.  The talent gap between the Dodgers and Yankees and everybody else but especially between them and the Giants.  Hint:  It's not narrow!  2.  Almost every postseason team has a Hall of Fame level hitter in in their lineup and several of them have two or even three.  

Which brings us to Juan Soto who will be a free agent in less than 3 weeks.  Juan Soto is one of those Hall of Fame level hitters that the Giants currently don't have.  The conventional wisdom is the Giants have zero chance of signing Juan Soto for several reasons:  He's had a taste of playing in New York for the Yankees, the Giants recent track record of futility signing big name free agents, Oracle Park.  What?  Not so fast?  A beat writer for the San Francisco Chronicle wrote yesterday that the Giants have an inkling that the Yankees and Dodgers may not be his dream situation, that he might want to be THE guy to lead another team.  Not sure where this inkling might be coming from but Bob Melvin was his manager for 1+ seasons with the Padres.

That got me thinking.  What would it take for the Giants to convince Juan Soto to come join the legacies of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds and, ahem, Buster Posey?  And if such a thing is possible, is it something the Giants should do?  First, a few facts:

1.  Juan Soto is a very good ballplayer.  In 7 MLB seasons he's already accumulated 36.3 fWAR which averages out to a little over 5 per season.  He's already had at least 3 seasons with fWAR of at least 6.0.

2.  Soto is coming off his best season with 8.1 fWAR and has 14.1 over his last two seasons.

3.  Soto won't turn 26 years old until next week.  Think about that!  He's a 7 year veteran and is just finishing his age 25 season meaning he probably has not had his peak season(s) yet.  For comps sake, Aaron Judge signed his 9 yr/$360 M contract after his age 30 season.  Shohei Ohtani signed his 10 yr/$700 M* contract after his age 28 season.  *most of Ohtani's money is deferred making his AAV for "luxury tax" purposes $47 M.  

4.  Oracle Park is the hardest park in all of MLB to hit HR's in.  It's Park Factor for HR's is 0.78 compared to Yankee Stadium's 1.19.  There's a reason why star hitters don't want to play half their games in Oracle Park especially if they think they will want/need to sign a future contract.  But what if it's the last contract they will ever sign as players?  Hmm......

Big Question:  Should the Giants offer Juan Soto 15 yr/$600 M, no deferred money, no opt-outs.(that's an AAV of $40 M, same as Judge but for 6 years longer, less AAV than Ohtani but for 5 years longer playing time and about $150 M more than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted total)?  Corollary Question:  Would Soto accept such a deal?  Corollary Question:  What about offering an option to buy into the ownership group at retirement?  Would that change the amount money Soto would accept in the contract or would a perk of that magnitude be required over and above?

Share and support your answers in the Comments.