Hot Stove League Update: First Base Dominoes Fall

The Hot Stove is sizzling today.  No sooner had Christian Walker signed with the Astros and Paul Goldschmidt with the Yankees than the D'Backs moved aggressively to fill their hole at 1B with Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians.  The DBacks send Slade Cecconi RHP and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick to the Guardians.  

D'Backs get:

Josh Naylor 1B.

2024:  .243/.320/.456, 31 HR, 6 SB, 9.2 BB%, 16.6 K%, 633 PA, 2.3 fWAR.

Good hitter, bad body.  Negative defensive metrics drag down his WAR value.  Free Agent next offseason.

Guardians get:

Slade Cecconi RHP.

2024: (AAA):  4-2, 3.06, 47 IP, 10.34 K/9, 2.68 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-7, 6.66, 77 IP, 7.48 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.

Former #33 overall draft pick in 2020.  I liked him from my predraft research.  Excellent control but is command within the zone a problem?  He gave up 16 HR in 77 IP.  Maybe was too afraid of walking batters?  Back of rotation pitching option for the Guardians.

Summary:  D'Backs win the trade in the short term but downgrade their defense at 1B and only control Naylor's contract for 1 season.  Cecconi's numbers could well improve with experience.  Naylor would have been an interesting bridge to Bryce Eldridge but I get the feeling Buster Posey is not that into bridge contracts and 1 year rentals.

Then, no sooner had the news sprung on the Naylor trade but the Guardians reunited with Carlos Santana on a 1 yr/$12 M contract.

Carlos Santana 1B/DH:

2024:  .238/.328/.420, 23 HR, 10.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 594 PA, 3.0 fWAR.

Santana had a solid season for the Twins in 2024 and actually had positive defensive WAR value at age 39.  How much longer can he keep it up?

Summary:  Assuming Josh Naylor was going to leave in free agency, the Guardians may have actually upgraded 1B for 2025 by trading him and signing Santana.  Again the question is how much longer can Santana keep up this level of play?  Santana has also been discussed in blogs as a possible bridge option at 1B for the Giants.  I think Buster has other priorities and is likely to stick with LMWJ and a RH platoon bat for 1B until Bryce Eldridge is ready.

Hot Stove League Update: Paul Goldschmidt Agrees To Terms With Yankees

 Paul Goldschmidt 1B, long time Giants nemesis, is signing with......the Yankees for 1 yr/$12.5 M.

2024:  .245/.302/.414, 22 HR, 11 SB, 7.2 BB%, 26.5 K%, 654 PA, 1.1 fWAR.

I can't say I saw this coming.  Goldschmidt was someone I thought could be a nice bat for Buster Posey to add at a not-unreasonable cost.  His 2024 numbers are not great and have been declining for a couple of years now but they are also not terrible by Giants hitting standards.  I felt like he and Buster might have a mutual respect that goes back to the glory days for both players but here we are.  Goldy is going to play for the Yankees for a not-unreasonable price.  Yesterday's take:  He might have something left in the tank.  Today's take:  Nah, he's washed up!  Hey, at least he's in the other league now.  Buh bye!

So who's left on the first base free agent market? 

Pete Alonso(QO):  Love the HR power but not much else.  Definitely does not fit with Buster's stated philosophy for roster construction.

Josh Bell

Anthony Rizzo

Carlos Santana

Hey! Bringing back Brandon Belt as a lefthanded DH isn't looking so bad!  It's really looking like the Giants are content to ride out a platoon of LMWJ and Wilmer Flores or Jerar Encarnacion until Bryce Eldridge is ready and I can think of worse plans.

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Thanks to Nick San Miguel of Around the Foghorn for the heads up on an international signing from Asia.  No, not Roki Sasaki but Nien-Hsi Yang RHP out of Taiwan for a reported $500 K.   I read the Giants had about $2 M of unused bonus pool money for the 2024 international signing period and December 15 was the deadline. So they had some extra change lying around and used it on Yang.  Scouting report is he's 18 ho with a 3 pitch mix headlined by a 92 MPH FB.  He's a sturdy looking kid with a conventional windup and over-the-top delivery.  Maybe we'll see him in a San Jose Giants uniform in 2025?

Hot Stove League Update: Christian Walker Signs With Astros

 Christian Walker 1B signed a 3 yr/$60 M contract with the Houston Astros.

2024:  .251/335/.468, 26 HR, 10.0 BB%, 24.1 K%, 130 PA, 3.0 fWAR.

Walker has been a consistent source of power and gold glove defense at 1B for the D'Backs since the departure of Paul Goldschmidt.  He was headed for one of his best seasons when he went down with an oblique injury on 7/29.  He did not return until 9/3 and hit just .141 in the month of September.  Oblique injuries tend to be slow healing but also usually don't cause problems once they are fully healed.  The contract covers his age 34-36 seasons.  The signing is a clear signal the Astros gave up on re-signing Alex Bregman.  Isaac Parades, acquired from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade will play 3B and Walker will play 1B.  I thought Walker would make a nice upgrade for the Giants and am sad to see him off the market although there was never any indication the Giants pursued him.

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The Giants re-signed Raymond Burgos LHP to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.  

2024(ACL):  1-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 13.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(A):  0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 4.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  2-2, 1.69, 26.2 IP, 9.11 K/9, 1.69 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-0, 9.00, 1 IP, 9 K/9, 9 BB/9.  

Burgos is an interesting lefthanded depth option.  He only got one MLB appearance lasting 1 inning and gave up a run on 3 hits, struck out 1, walked 1 but got 4 GB's in 7 PA's.  His numbers in AAA Sacramento suggest he is capable of pitching effectively at the MLB level.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Jamie Arnold

Jamie Arnold LHP, College(Florida State).  DOB:  3/21/2024.  6' 1", 188 lbs.

2023(College):  2-5, 6.34, 44 IP, 10.0 K/9, 5.5 BB/9.

2023(Cape Cod League):  1-1, 2.95, 18.1 IP, 10.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9.

2024(College):  11-3, 2.98, 105.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9.

Arnold is coming off a terrific sophomore season in which is racked up the 3'rd highest strikeout total in the NCAA.  He sports a 3-pitch SP mix including a mid-90's FB, sweeping slider and a decent changeup.  Although on the small side in stature, he plays up with a super-long stride reminiscent of Tim Lincecum and a sweeping arm action not dissimilar to Madison Bumgarner.  He as a low-3/4 release point with just a bit shorter arm action than Bum.  If he stays healthy and pitches up to his sophomore campaign, he'll be a high first round pick.

Hot Stove League Update: Top of the Market Congealed; Lower Level Signings Continue

While the top of the free agent market remains congealed, teams continued to add depth players and upside plays from the "Brebbia Aisle" as the Giants Blog would put it.  We have three new signings to report:

Mike Soroka RHP signs with the Nationals for 1 yr/$9 M.

2024(White Sox):  0-10, 4.74, 79.2 IP, 9.5 K/9, 5.0 BB/9.

After a strong age 21 season in 2019 for the Braves, Soroka was beset by a series of injures.  He surfaced in 2024 with the White Sox and struggled as a SP into 2024 but was much better after moving to the bullpen but continued to put up elevated walk rates. The Nationals apparently intend to try him as a SP again in an upside play although $9 M is a significant investment for a pitchers who hasn't proved he can control the strike zone.  Pitchers in this general demographic are not what the Giants need right now.

Max Kepler OF signs with the Phillies for 1 yr/$10 M.  

2024(Twins):  .253/.302/.380, 8 HR, 5.5 BB%, 20.1 K%, 399 PA.

Kepler is a good defensive OF who hit 36 HR's in 2019 but has not come close to that production since.  His 2024 season was impacted and shortened by injuries.  The Phillies take a flyer on a 1 year "pillow" contract hoping he can stay healthy and his numbers will bounce back.  Kepler fits in the same demographic as Mike Yastrzemski who has also battled injuries and is signed for 2024 for pretty much the same contract.  I'll bet on YtY's numbers next season.

Patrick Sandoval LHP signs with Red Sox for 2 yrs/$18.25 M.

2024(Angels):  2-8, 5.08, 79.2 IP, 9.2 K/9, 4.0 BB/9.  

Sandoval was a quality SP for the Angels for 3 years but struggled in 2024 and was shut down in June for Tommy John surgery.  He might help the Red Sox late in 2025 but they are betting on him coming back to full strength in 2026.  That's a very FZ kind of move which didn't really work out often for him and the Giants are not currently in need of that type of gamble.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Jace LaViolette

 Jace LaViolette OF, College(Texas A&M).  DOB:  12/4/2003.  B- L, T-L.  6'6", 230 lbs.

2023(College):  .287/.414/.632, 21 HR, 18 SB, 17.1% BB, 26.8 K%, 280 PA.

2023(Cape Cod League):  .381/.500/.429, 19.2 BB%, 23.1 K%, 26 PA.

2024(College):  .305/.449/.726, 29 HR, 7 SB, 19.2 BB%, 24.3 K%, 334 PA.

Tremendous combination of size, athleticism and power.  Fast enough to play CF with an arm strong enough to play RF.  Unfortunately his shakiest tool is the most important one, hit.  He shows good plate discipline with high walk rates which often come with higher strikeout rates because if you are choosy about what balls you swing at in the zone, you are going to see more 2-strike pitches you don't strike out until after you get to two strikes.  So that may explain it but the MLB Pipeline scouting report talks about swing and miss within the strike zone which is a red flag, IMO.  On video he looks like a lefthanded version of Kris Bryant.  I don't see an arm bar.  He keeps his elbows bent which helps him get around on pitches on the inner half and his arms are long enough he should be able to also cover the outside corner.  The potential is obvious but also some bust potential if he doesn't show improvement in in-zone contact skills.

Hot Stove League Update: Yankees Trade for Cody Bellinger

 The Cubs remained one of the most active teams in the Hot Stove League, particularly in the trade market.  Yesterday the other shoe dropped after they traded for Kyle Tucker OF.  The takers were the Yankees who were in the market for a lefty hitting OF after losing Juan Soto OF to free agency and the Mets.  Lets break it down:

Yankees get:

Cody Bellinger OF/1B:  

2024:  .266/.325/.426, 18 HR, 9 SB, 7.9 BB%, 15.6 K%, 569 PA, 2.2 fWAR.

Cody Bellinger's MLB career started by hitting 111 HR's in his first 3 seasons then he dropped off a cliff.  While he did suffer a shoulder injury in the 2020 postseason which eventually required surgery, his production took a noticeable dropoff earlier in the COVID-delayed 2020 season.  His production never fully recovered.  He had a strong 2023 season after signing a 1 year contract with a player option with the Cubs hitting 26 HR's and accumulating a 4.4 fWAR.  The Cubs gave him a QO and he eventually signed a 3 yr/$80 M contract before the 2024 season.  2024 marked another regression.  The Cubs were rumored to be looking to trade him going into the Hot Stove League season ostensibly to reduce payroll and clear a crowded OF situation but the acquisition of Kyle Tucker OF makes it appear they just wanted out of his whole situaiton.  Yankee Stadium offers a perfect environment for him to rebuild his stat sheet but this has to be tough for Yankees fans to swallow after losing out on Soto.

Cubs get:

Cody Poteet RHP: 

2024(AA):  0-0, 0.96, 9.1 IP, 10.61 K/9, 0.96 BB/9.  

2024(AAA):  3-0, 3.92, 43.2 IP, 10.10 K/9, 3.09 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-0, 2.22, 24.1 IP, 5.92 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.

Former 4'th round draft pick out of UCLA by the Marlins.  Missed 2023 after Tommy John surgery.  Missed time in 2024 with a triceps strain but pitched well when healthy.  His ERA at the MLB level outperformed his K rate but in a small sample. He adds to the Cubs rotation depth.

Summary:

Interesting trade on multiple levels.  Some may wonder why the Giants weren't more in on Bellinger since it seems like they could use another lefty power bat and they have at least 5 pitchers who fit Cody Poteet's general profile.  The question I ask is if Cody Bellinger is a better player than Mike Yastrzemski?  Maybe a little but if you translate Bellinger's home games from Wrigley Field to Oracle Park, I'm not sure he's that much better.  While he has more power than Lamonte Wade Jr, LMWJ has a far better OBP.  So it looks like the Giants just weren't that into Cody Bellinger either and definitely not at his salary point.

Hot Stove League Update: Orioles Sign Sugano

Tomoyuki Sugano, a veteran RHP from Japan, signed a 1 yr/$13 M contract with the Orioles.  That is of interest to Giants fans because there was early speculation the Giants might be in on him, although more recently the chase seems to have narrowed down to Corbin Burnes or bust.  

Tomoyuki Sugano RHP:  DOB:  10/11/1989.  6' 1", 198 lbs.

2024(NPB):  15-3, 1.67, 156.2 IP, 6.38 K/9, 0.92 BB/9.  

Sugano still pitched at a high level of success at age 34.  His FB velocity reportedly dipped from the mid-90's to the low 90's and his K rates are unimpressive, but his command is off the charts.  We will probably never know if the Giants made an offer.  He signed for an affordable price if they really wanted him.  For approximately equal offers it is possible he decided the Orioles were closer to a championship run and chose that.

Let's take a look at what's left on the free agent starting pitching market:

Corbin Burnes RHP(QO)- The clear top of what's left on the market.  What's taking so long?  You have to think the days going by with no news is not good news for the Giants.

Walker Buehler RHP(No QO):  Reportedly seeking a multi-year deal.  Personally I would do it for no more than 3 years.  IMO he's the highest ceiling for the lowest price in this FA class, but you have to respect the injury history.

Jack Flaherty RHP(No QO):  The type of innings eater the Giants needs but has been inconsistent and won't be cheap.

Andrew Heaney LHP(No QO):  Gives innings but ERA over 4 the last two years for the Rangers.

Sean Manaea LHP(QO):  I wanted FZ to resign him after the 2023 season.  While I would give up the draft picks for Burnes, probably would not for Manaea.

Nick Pivetta RHP(QO):  Would not give up draft picks to sign him.

Cal Quantrill RHP(No QO):  Nobody is talking about him.  He'll give you innings, should be affordable and his ERA should look a lot better pitching his home games in Oracle Park vs Coors Field.

Max Scherzer RHP(No QO):  Missed quite a bit of time with a hammy injury last season but pitched at least 145 innings/season the previous 3 seasons.  Does he have anything left in the tank?

Justin Verlander RHP(No QO):  K rate is down and ERA ballooned to 5.48 last season with the Astros.  Does he have anything left in the tank?

Roki Sasaki RHP(No QO):  I take it back that Walker Buehler is the highest ceiling for the lowest price. That would be Sasaki who is limited to signing for international prospect bonus pool money and would be an immediate ace.  The problem is it's a complete crapshoot as to who he will choose.  The Dodgers are the obvious frontrunner and there are several other teams likely ahead of the Giants in the Sasaki Line.

There are several potential trade candidates out there including Dylan Cease RHP but that is way more speculative than the free agent market.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Ethan Holliday

 I'm going to start a series of posts scouting players eligible for the 2025 MLB Amateur Draft and try to build a draft board.  No guarantees how far I will get on it.  I got a full first round draft board in 2023 which I thought was surprisingly accurate(I got Bryce Eldridge to the Giants right), but last year I kind of lost interest after the first 10 or so scouting reports.  I have more recreational time this year so maybe I can keep it going beyond the top 30?  

The Giants had bad luck in the draft lottery and will draft in the #13 slot, I think for the 3'rd time in 4 years.  They should be drafting as high as #9 base on W-L record.  So let's get started with the reviews.  We will work our way down through the MLB Pipeline Top 100 Draft Prospects.

Ethan Holliday SS/3B, HS.  DOB:  2/23/2007.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 200 lbs.  

The younger of the Holliday Boys is significantly bigger than his older brother, Jackson, who was the #1 overall pick in 2022.  He is a 5-tool player with the biggest being power.  He still shows some leanness in videos but his size will likely limit him to 3B by the time he reaches the MLB level of play.  On video he has a nice looking swing but bars his front arm to my eye.  Some analysts think arm-barring is a negative but it's controversial.  Most early draft prospect rankings have him at the top of the board and that's where we will put him for now.

Hot Stove League Update: A's, Rays Make Multiplayer Trade

 The A's have made some inneresting moves this Hot Stove League Season.  This one is a bit of a head-scratcher from their end and since they are dealing with the Rays, it's not hard to think the Rays got the better end of the deal even before analyzing it.  Let's break it down:

A's receive:

Jeffrey Springs LHP:

2024:  2-2, 3.27, 33 IP, 10.09 K/9, 3.00 BB/9.  

Springs missed most of 2022 and 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.  He came back at the end of July to pitch well in 7 Starts but then was shut down on 9/3 due to "elbow fatigue".  He has two years remaining on a 4 yr contract with a club option for 2027.

Jacob Lopez LHP:

2024(AAA):  4-7, 4.26, 88.2 IP, 10.76 K/9, 4.57 BB/9.  

2024(MLB):  0-0, 5.23, 10.1 IP, 6.97 K/9, 6.10 BB/9.

Of the name Jacob Lopez sounds vaguely familiar, he was the Giants 26'th round draft pick in 2018.  FZ churned him to the Rays for Joe McCarthy in a 2019 midseason trade.  He has worked his way up through the Rays farm system.

Rays receive:

Joe Boyle RHP:  

2024(AAA):  1-3, 5.12, 45.2 IP, 13.99 K/9, 7.69 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-6, 6.42, 47.2 IP, 10.57 K/9, 7.55 BB/9.

Per Fangraphs, Boyle's FB velocity is 98 MPH, but he obviously has serious command/control issues.  Maybe the Rays can fix that?  Or maybe he has more potential as a reliever?

Jacob Watters RHP:

2024(A+):  6-3, 5.04, 8.31 K/9, 4.15 BB/9.

2024(A):  1-0, 9.00, 3 IP, 0.00 K/9, 15.00 BB/9.

Hasn't pitched above A+ ball and was Rule 5 Eligible this year.

Will Simpson 1B/OF:

2024(A+):  .270/.373/.480, 16 HR, 4 SB, 14.6 BB%, 24.7 K%.

2024(AA:  .348/.408/.493, 2 HR, SB, 9.2 BB%, 23.7 K%.  

15'th round draft pick in 2023 with excellent progress in first full pro season.

Rays also receive a compensatory draft pick.

Summary: 

Springs is probably the best players in the trade and this could work out pretty well for the A's if he is healthy.  Boyle's K rate indicates some upside if he can gain some control of the strike zone and Simpson looks like a legit hitter.  It's surprising the A's gave up a high draft pick and that could end up being the eventual difference maker in the trade.  It's interesting that the A's seem to suddenly want to add payroll.  Are they really trying to improve the team or did the MLBPA put the fear of god in them over a possible grievance for underspending their revenue-sharing money?  Maybe some of both?

Hot Stove League Update: Cubs Trade for Kyle Tucker; Yanks Get Devin Williams

The Hot Stove League has not seen many old-fashioned "blockbuster" trades the past few seasons because teams became severely averse to giving up top prospects for "rentals" of star players about to hit free agency.  Yesterday we saw the second blockbuster of this season when the Astros traded Kyle Tucker OF to the Cubs for two players with MLB experience and one of their top prospects.  Let's break it down:

Going to Cubs:

Kyle Tucker OF:  DOB:  1/17/1997.  B-L, T-R.  6' 4", 212 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 1, 5'th overall.  3'rd year arb eligible.  Free agent 2025/2026.

2024:  .289/.408/.585, 23 HR, 11 SB, 16.5 BB%, 15.9 K%, 339 PA, 4.2 fWAR.

Tucker missed significant time last season with a fractured tibia but did come back in September to hit .365 so appears free of injury worries next season.  He is obviously an excellent, consistent player putting up fWAR's of 5.0, 4.9 and 5.0 in the years 2021-2023. He likely would have gotten close to 8 fWAR in 2024 without the injury.  The problem is he only has one more season of team control of his contract.  As a Scott Boras client he will almost certainly resist efforts to extend his contract and will one of the most sought after free agents next Hot Stove League season.

Going to Astros:

Isaac Paredes IF:  DOB:  2/18/1999.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 213 lbs.  First year arb eligble.  Free Agent 2027/2028.  

2024(2 teams):  .238/.346/.393, 19 HR, 11.9 BB%, 16.4 K%, 641 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

Originally signed by the Cubs in 2015, Paredes has already been involved in 4 major trades:  Cubs to Tigers with Jeimer Candelario for Alex Avila C and Justin Wilson LHP, Tiger to Rays for Austin Meadows OF and Rays to Cubs for Ty Johnson RHP, Hunter Bigge RHP and Chris Morel IF/OF/DH.  Per MLBTR, Sarah Langs did a spray chart for Paredes and found he would have hit 26 HR's in 2024 if he played his home games in Houston.  Now Cubs to Astros.

Hayden Wesneski RHP.  DOB:  12/5/1997.  6'3", 210 lbs.  Pre-arb.  Arb eligible 2026.  FA 2030.

2024:  3-6, 3.86, 67.2 IP, 8.91 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.  

Wesneski was an effective swingman for the Cubs starting 7 of his 28 appearances(Opener?).  He comes with many years of team control.

Cam Smith 3B.  DOB:  2/22/2003.  B-R, T-R.  Drafted 2024 Round 1, #14 overall.

2024(A):  .313/.404/.771, 6 HR, 14.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 57 PA.

2024(A+):  .333/.421/.500, HR, 10.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, 57 PA.

2024(AA):  .263/.300/.474, 5.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 20 PA.

Already a very fast riser, Smith probably needs to start 2025 in AA but could see the majors by mid-late season depending on how he responds in his first full pro season.

Summary:

Probably a good trade for both teams.  Cubs get the best current player, by far, but only for one season.  This move likely signals that the Astros are entering another tear-down/rebuild phase after several tumultuous years of contention including a cheating scandal for prohibited use of electronic equipment to steal signs. They get 3 players who can all be solid parts to that rebuild. Does the acquisition of Tucker by the Cubs make a trade of Cody Bellinger OF and/or Seiya Suzuki OF more or less likely?

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Cubs also signed Carson Kelly C to a 2 yr/$11.5 M contract. Kelly was once a top catching prospect but has had a disappointing MLB career so far.    He hit .238/.313/.374 last season for two teams.  Kelly was someone I was hoping the Giants would sign as a back up or co-catcher to Patrick Bailey.  He will likely share catching duties with Miguel Amaya in Chicago.

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The Yankees acquired Devin Williams RHP in a trade with the Brewers for Nestor Cortes LHP and Caleb Durbin IF.  Let's break this one down:

Yankees get:

Devin Williams RHP.  DOB:  9/21/1994.  6' 2", 193 lbs.  3'rd yr arb eligible.  Free Agent 2025/2026.

2024:  1-0, 1.25, 21.2 IP, 15.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 14 Saves, 0.8 fWAR

Williams is an elite Closer when healthy.  He missed time with injuries in 2024.  Yanks bullpen came just a bit short in the postseason so that's what his acquisition is all about.

Brewers get:

Nestor Cortes LHP.  DOB:  12/10/1994.  5'11", 210 lbs.  3'rd yr arb eligible.  Free Agent 2025/2026.

2024:  9-10, 3.77, 174.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.1 fWAR.

Caleb Durbin IF.  DOB:  2/22/2000.  B-R, T-R.  5' 6", 185 lbs.  Drafted by Braves 14'th round in 2021.

2024(AAA):  .287/.396/.471, 10 HR, 29 SB, 12.5 BB%, 9.9 K%.

Yankees also send $2 M to the Brewers.  

Summary:  In terms of WAR value, a mid-rotation SP who racks up 170 IP is more valuable than even an elite Closer but Blown Saves can have an extremely pernicious impact on an entire team and that is amplified in the postseason as the Yankees found out the hard way in 2024.  Both of the main players in this trade will be free agents after one more season so that part is even.  The Brewers also get a MLB-ready IF whose small stature may work to his advantage in terms of strike zone control.  I give the Brewers a narrow win in this trade.

Hot Stove League Update: Red Sox Sell Farm For Garrett Crochet; Giants Play Rule 5 Musical Chairs

While rumors of Corbin Burnes RHP possibly signing with the Giants heated up, the Red Sox traded half their farm system for Garrett Crochet sending 4 prospects including their last two first round draft picks to the White Sox.  Let's break it down:

Garrett Crochet LHP:  DOB:  6/21/1999.  6' 6", 245 lbs.  Service Time:  4 years.  Options:  3.  Arbitration Eligible:  Now.  Free Agent:  2027(2 years of team control remaining).

2024:  6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.25 GB/FB, 14.4 HR/FB%, 2.69 FIP, 97.2 vFA, 4.7 fWAR.

Crochet had a breakout season in 2024 after missing all of 2022 and much of 2023 with Tommy John surgery.  The Red Sox gain control of his contract for 2 seasons through arbitration eligibility.  The ceiling is obvious but without a track record of sustained health and success.  Comps to Chris Sale are obvious but Sale had a much longer record of success before the Red Sox acquired him.  

Kyle Teel C:  DOB:  2/15/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 190 lbs.  Drafted first round #14 in 2023.

2024(AA):  .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 9 SB, 12.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 382 PA.

2024(AAA):  .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 123 PA.

Athletic for a catcher with elite plate discipline, more gap power than HR power.  Should make his MLB debut in 2024, possibly as early as Opening Day.  Candidate for ROY.

Braden Montgomery OF:  DOB:  4/16/2003.  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 220 lbs.  Drafted first round #12 overall in 2024.

2024(College):  .322/.454/.733, 27 HR, 5 SB, 53 BB, 59 K, 295 PA.

2-way college player who transferred from Stanford to Texas A&M for his junior season.  Drafted as an OF.  Had surgery to repair a fractured ankle suffered during the college playoffs so did not appear in any pro games.  One of several big-time college hitters in the 2024 draft.

Chase Meidroth IF.  DOB:  7/23/2001.  B-R, T-R.  5' 10", 170 lbs.  Drafted 2022 round 4.  

2024(AAA):  .293/.437/.401, 7 HR, 13 SB, 18.8 BB%, 12.7 K%, 558 PA.

Played most innings at SS and second most at 3B so apparently has the arm for the left side of IF.  Elite plate discipline.  Coming off a full season of AAA experience, should be able to start at some position on Opening Day.

Wikelman Gonzalez RHP.  DOB:  3/15/2002.  6' 0", 167 lbs.  

2024(AA):  4-3, 4.73, 83.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.95 BB/9.

High walk rate suggests reliever risk or need for further development.  No scouting report but seems to be a hard thrower.

Summary:  The Red Sox get 2 years of control of an elite LHP with a limited track record of success.  It's unclear that the BoSox are at a place where one elite pitcher makes them contenders.  The White Sox are coming off one of the worse seasons in MLB history and are in desperate need of rebuilding. They get a huge haul of prospects which we rarely see in trades anymore.

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Yesterday the Rule 5 Draft was held.  Most of you know I am not a fan of the Rule 5 Draft which I believe to be more disruptive than benificial to both players and teams although there occasional success stories.  The Giants did not make a selection and did not lose any players in the major league phase.  There was a lot more action in the minor league phase but with questionable impact.  The Giants lose 6 players who probably did not figure to ever make their 40-man MLB roster and they gained 2 players who now have one season to prove they deserve to be added to the 40-man before next year's Rule 5 Draft. Note that unlike the major league phase, in the minor league phase the drafted players do not have to stay on the AAA roster and do not have to be offered back to their previous team so these transactions are final.

Players Lost:  

Wil Jensen RHP(AA)

Cesar Quintas OF(A+)

Julio Rodriguez RHP(AA)

Will Wilson SS(AA)

Andy Thomas C(AA)

Nick Swiney LHP(AA)

The most notable development here is probably the end of the Will Wilson saga.  If you recall one of the first big moves FZ made as POBO, was to essentially buy a second first round draft prospect for the cost of Zach Cozart's $12 M contract which was immediately dumped as a sunk cost.  Wilson just never found any traction on his pro career despite a lot of patience from the Giants.

Players Gained:  

C. J. Widger LHP:  DOB: 5/25/1999.  6'6", 170 lbs.  

2024(A):  3-4, 4.60, 29.1 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.22 BB/9, 3 Saves.

2024(A+): 2-1, 6.30, 10 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.40 BB/9.

Son of former MLB catcher Chris Widger.  Love the height Very good K rates but walk rates too high.  Could be a MLB lefty reliever if he can find a way to cut those down just a bit.

Sadrac Franco RHP:  DOB:  6/4/2000.  6' 0", 155 lbs.

2024(ACL):  2-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 7.84 K/9, 5.23 BB/9.

2024(A):  0-1, 1.08, 8.1 IP, 17.28 K/9, 3.24 BB/9.

Has never pitched above A ball.

Summary:  Don't hold your breath until any of these players make it to the major leagues.

Hot Stove League Update: The Cost of Starting Pitching Remains High

It was a busy day at MLB's Winter Meetings starting off with the Rangers re-signing Nate Eovaldi RHP to a 3 yr/$75 M contract.  After being plagued by injuries and inconsistency early in his career, Eovaldi has been on of MLB's most consistent pitchers  over the past 5 seasons with ERA's ranging from 3.63 to 3.80 while averaging 152 IP/season over his last 4 seasons.  He enters his age 35 season.  MLBTR predicted a 2 yr/$44 M contract for him, so we once again see contracts for SP's outstripping predictions by a significant amount, both in years and in AAV.  

The Blockbuster deal of the day went to Max Fried LHP who agreed to terms with the Yankees for a whopping 8 years/$218 M.  Fried is a durable, consistent performer accumulating a career 3.07 ERA in 884.1 IP.  His deal tops MLBTR's prediction of 6 yr/$156 M.... by a lot!  His K rate is not outstanding but he has elite walk and groundball rates.  He has missed some time with forearm strains the past 2 seasons so that is something to watch going forward, especially in a pitcher who just got an 8 year contract to take him through his age 38 season.

The Guardians traded their gold-glove second baseman, Andres Gimenez, to the Blue Jays along with Nick Sandlin RHP for Spencer Horwitz IF and Nick Mitchell OF.  Gimenez' offensive production tailed off the last two seasons and this trade gets the last 5 years of his $106.5 M contract off their books while getting a potential 2B replacement in return along with a promising prospect.

The last big news of the day was the Rangers acquiring Jake Burger 3B/1B from the Marlins for three prospects.  The Rangers run-scoring faltered last season and Burger hit 29 HR's. He is a defensive liability who could end up DH'ing for most of his PA's.  

In Giants news, they are rumored to still be in on Corbin Burnes RHP who is not expected to command a deal well north of his MLBTR prediction of 6 yr/$200 M. Buster Posey gushed about Roki Sasaki RHP who will wait until a short window after the next international signing window opens on Jan 15.  Sasaki is widely expected to sign with the Dodgers his agent is pushing back on that notion.  Sasaki is rumored to be unhappy with aggressive sports media and San Francisco's sports media is believed to be more athlete-friendly than LA.  It is also emerging that being the second Japanese player in a given market hurts merch sales.  We'll see. All this seems vaguely familiar.  

With the addition of Willy Adames SS, the Giants 40-man roster is full so they will not be selecting in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft this AM.  They could still select someone in the minor league phase.

And is it just me or have the Giants been the victims of vaguely bad luck for awhile now?  They came out of the draft lottery dropping 4 slots from #9 to #13 as 4 teams improved their draft position including the Nationals at #1 overall, the Angels at #2, the Mariners at #3 and the Cardinals at #5.  The two teams with the worse records, the Rockies and Marlins dropped to #4 and #7 respectively.  Dropping from #9 to #13 may not seem like a big deal but we have seen drafts where a difference of just 1 or 2 slots makes a huge difference in available talent depending on where tiers break.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2024 Giants Draft

The Giants lost their 2'nd and 3rd round picks due to signing Matt Chapman and Blake Snell as free agents.

1.  James Tibbs III OF, College.

We covered him in the First Round Review.  Bat came to life in last 6 games at A+ level.  Should start back there in 2025. I think he will do well and will be a fast mover.  Probably more gap than HR power but should hit for average.

4.  Dakota Jordan OF, College.  

MLB predraft ranking of 34 who fell to the Giants at 116.  Went 0 for 7 in a cameo A level appearance at the end of 2024.  5-tool player who was a 2-sport HS athlete(football WR).  Dropped football to concentrate on baseball in college at Mississippi St.  Tools are still raw with a lot of swing and miss in his game. He is still learning how to use his WR speed on the basepaths and in the OF.  Will likely require some patience in his development.

5.  Jakob Christian OF, College.

2024(A):  .267/.378/.500, 4 2B, HR, 13.5 BB%, 21.6 K%, 37 PA.

6' 5", 225 lb size give him oodles of power potential.  Can he control the strike zone? Defensively limited to corner OF.

6.  Robert Hipwell 3B, College.

2024(A):  .196/.360/.402, 5 HR, 15.4 BB%, 29.4 K%, 136 PA.

First member of draft class to appear in a pro game.  Some extreme 3-true outcomes feel here.  May need to be more aggressive earlier in counts?

7.  Greg Farone LHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Big lefty with unimpressive college numbers(Alabama/SEC).

8.  Niko Mazza RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Small(5' 11") college SP with decent numbers.

9.  Zane Zielinski SS, College.

2024(College, Illinois-Chicago):  .363/.449/.583, 4 3B, 8 HR, 20 SB, 32 BB, 47 K, 268 PA.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Great size for a shortstop(6' 3", 175 lbs) with room to get stronger.

10.  Cade Vernon RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games. Good size for pitching prospect(6' 3", 210 lbs) with unimpressive college stat line.

11.  Andy Polanco OF, HS.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Only HS player drafted by the Giants in 2024.  Tremendous size at 6' 4", 195 lbs.  Not much else available in the way of scouting reports.

12.  Zander Darby 3B, College.

2024(A):  .234/.351/.489, 4 HR, 15.8 BB%, 29.8 K%, 57 PA.

Showed some pop and a 3-true outcomes tendency.

13.  Drake George RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  NAIA college.  Decent line in small sample from Cape Cod League.

14.  Jeremiah Jenkins 1B, College.

2024(A):  .295/.367/.545, 2 HR, 8.2 BB%, 32.7 K%, 49 PA.

Classic big left-left slugging 1B. Will he hit at higher levels?

15.  Evan Gray RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  College reliever with strong ratios.

16. Tyler Switalski LHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Nice size(6'4", 235 lbs). Unimpressive college stat line.

17.  Hunter Dryden RHP, College.

Did not appear in any games with an affiliated pro team.  Small size(5' 11", 168 lbs) from a small college.  Good numbers across the board.  Pitched 30 innings for Mahoning Valley in the MLB developmental league prior to the draft. 

18.  Ryan Slater RHP, College.

Did not appear in any pro games.  Big bodied college reliever with unimpressive stat line.

19.  Ryan Ure LHP, College.

Did not sign.  Too bad because 6' 8" lefties don't grow on trees.

20.  Fernando Gonzalez C, College.

2024(College, Georgia):  .292/.364/.532, 9 HR, 15 BB, 31 K, 200 PA.

Did not appear in any pro games.

Summary:

It's become really hard to get an early read on drafted players due to draft being moved so late in the season the short season leagues are already wrapping up.  I am bullish on first rounder James Tibbs III and think he will move fast.  Giants selected several college power bats hoping one or two will develop into something.  I look forward to seeing the names of the 10 signed players who did not make it into any pro games including 8 pitchers.

Hot Stove League Update: Dodgers and Yankees Reach Their Limits; Steve Cohen Has None

 Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets and a man with very deep pockets, put all that money to use by agreeing to sign Juan Soto OF to a record-breaking contract for 15 yrs/$765 M with escalators to an ultimate potential value of over $800 M.  This tops the absolute dollar amount of Shohei Ohtani's contract by $65 M in guaranteed money but most of Ohtani's contract is deferred which in MLB accounting makes it worth only about $470 M. Since none of Soto's money is deferred, he now has the richest contract in baseball history and by $ several hundred million.  The contract does have an opt-out after 2029 season. Does anybody care?  

As I have said before, I don't think there is any point in clucking about whether Soto or any ballplayer is worth this much money or whether his contract will place limits on future team spending.  It's obvious at least some MLB owners have, for all practical purposes, unlimited amounts of money to spend and they are going to spend it.  

The other side of that coin though is the Dodgers apparently do have a limit after all.  Though they already spent a lot of money this offseason and may well spend more, another team ended up with Juan Freaking Soto and the Dodgers so far have two injury prone Giants castoffs.  Which brings us to Michael Conforto.  Their is something satisfyingly symbolic that immediately after the Soto deal went down, we learned the Dodgers will sign Michael Conforto to a 1 yr/$17 M contract, which is not $51 M/yr but it's not nothing either.  I'll have to get back to you about why the Dodgers would want Michael Conforto, a player who was incredibly disappointing in his two years with the Giants.

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The more I think about the Giants signing Willy Adames, the more I am impressed by how Buster Posey got that deal done.  Don't forget that not only does Buster have personal knowledge of how players think about free agency, he also hired his own agent as an advisor to add an even stronger player/agent perspective to the process.  The comparison to FZ's completely tone-deaf and apparently off-putting approach is so striking.

No matter how good a player is or what their market value is, players are human and human's need to feel wanted when they form relationships.  Nobody wants to be someone else's second choice.  This is all speculation, of course, but it looks like Buster's approach worked on two levels:  1.  He let Adames know Adames was his first choice from Day 1 of free agency and Juan Soto was not a factor in Buster's priorities.  2.  Buster knew that as soon as the Soto shoe dropped, several other teams would immediately pivot to Adames, including the Dodgers who were also an obvious fit, possibly driving his price out of the Giants comfort zone.  Buster did not want to climb down the same ladder FZ did so many times.  In making Adames feel wanted Buster was able to get ahead of the market and get the deal he had to make done.  Very impressive work there but the Giants new President of Baseball Operations!

Hot Stove League Update: Buster Posey Gets It Done!

AnonymousDecember 7, 2024 at 6:48 AM

Doc, for the fun of it give me your 3 player signing/acquistions the Giants will make this week. I know i kind of asking you to give me the numbers I use to make when I purchase a lottery ticket, but I respect your views. That said I would be happy with Adames and anything after that > but again your top 3.

Richard in 

DrBGiantsfanDecember 7, 2024 at 8:16 AM

As you say, almost anything is possible but OK, let's see if we can break it down. I am going make two assumptions: 1. When Buster speaks, and he is a man of few words, he tells the truth. 2. Buster really really wants to start his tenure as POBO with an improved team. Here's where I'll go with that:

1. Willy Adames SS. Buster said he's going to go get a shortstop. There is really only one significant upgrade at shortstop available, Willy Adames. I think Buster is going to make an all-out effort to sign him.

2. Paul Goldschmidt 1B. First Base is the other position clearly in need of an upgrade but it's also Bryce Eldridge's position and Buster does not want to block Eldridge. Just a guess but I'll say I think there is a lot of mutual respect between Buster and Goldy.

3. Cal Quantrill RHP. I think J. T. Snow sent the signal when he went on the radio and said he would not bring Snell back and instead would bring in a couple of innings eating starting pitchers. Quantrill is affordable, gives you innings and his numbers should look a lot better with home games in Oracle Park instead of Coors Field.

I am not much for predictions when it comes to free agent signings or trades, but yesterday morning Richard in Winnepeg asked point blank and for some reason I was in a mood.  Just a few hours later Buster Posey made me look like a prophet as the news broke the Giants agreed to terms with Willy Adames on a 7 yr/$182 M contract.  The only detail we know is the agreement includes a $22 M signing bonus.

And what a statement from Buster Posey!  After years of mostly empty promises from FZ, Buster stated a goal at the beginning of the Hot Stove League season and achieved that goal with laser-like precision.  When he stated his goal was to go get a shortstop the there was only one clear upgrade on the market, Willy Adames, and many teams with records of more success in signing free agents were in the shortstop market.  It appeared Buster would have to rely on personal connections with Manager Bob Melvin and Jung Hoo Lee to sign Ha Seong Kim.  Now, a healthy Kim would also be an upgrade but he is coming off surgery for a torn labrum in his shoulder with no guarantee he will play at all in 2025 or ever play shortstop again.  To me, it was Adames or bust.  It was Adames!

In Willy Adames, the Giants get a player who not only plays a premium defensive position but is an excellent all-around hitter who brings both gap and home run power to the plate and can hit in the middle of most any MLB lineup.  There is a small concern he is inexplicably coming off a down year in his defensive metrics but those metrics tend to have a lot of variance from season to season and he still graded out as a positive defender when it came to calculating fWAR and the bat is good enough to be an asset even with diminished defense.  Perhaps the best part of this contract is Adames just turned 29 years old in September which means his likely peak seasons will cover most of the 7-year contract which will conclude after his age 35 season.

This signing is great news for Giants fans and a huge accomplishment for Buster Posey.  Hey!  Maybe he will be the Jerry West of baseball executives!  

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2024 First Round

1.  Guardians:  Travis Bazzana 2B, College.

2024(A+):  .238/.369/.396, 3 HR, 5 SB, 13.9 BB%, 25.4 K%, 122 PA.

Disappointing BA for a guy who came advertised as a high average hitter with doubles power and a motor.  This line looks more like a 3-true outcomes guy without the power.  A+ is an aggressive post-draft placement even for a 1-1 from a major college program.

2.  Reds:  Chase Burns RHP, College.

Burns did not get into any game action after the draft so we'll have to wait on next season for early returns.  Has tools to be a fast riser.

3.  Rockies:  Charlie Condon OF, College.

2024(A+):  .180/.248/.270, HR, 4 SB, 3.7 BB%, 31.2 K%, 109 PA. 

I'm always skeptical of one-dimensional sluggers who put up huge numbers in college.  A+ is an aggressive post-draft placement but this line is scary bad.

4.  A's:  Nick Kurtz 1B, College.

2024(A):  .400/.571/.950, 4 HR, 28.6 BB%, 20.0 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AA):  .308/.400/.385, 13.3 BB%, 20.0 K%, 15 PA.

2024(AFL:  .353/.450/.608, 2 HR, 9 BB, 16 K, 60 PA.

Another of those one-dimensional college slugger types.  So far he's hit everything in sight in small samples and could rocket to the majors.  

5.  White Sox:  Hagen Smith LHP, College.

2024(A+):  0-1, 3.52, 7.2 IP, 8.22 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 4.57 GB/FB.

Tiny sample but good numbers in an aggressive placement.

6.  Royals:  Jac Caglianone 1B, College.

2024(A+):  .241/.302/.388, 2 HR, 2 SB, 5.6 BB%, 20.6 K%, 126 PA.

2-way player in college who looks like he'll be a hitter in the pros.  Huge power projection.  Again, A+ is an aggressive placement right out of the draft.

7.  Cardinals:  J J Wetherholt 3B/2B/SS, College.

2024(A):  .295/.405/.400, 2 HR, 2 SB, 12.7 BB%, 11.9 K%, 126 PA.

Played multiple positions in college but exclusively SS is junior season.  So far the Cardinals have played him at SS too.  Tremendous all-around hitter in college.  Good numbers so far in the pros.  Will enhance his value if he can stick at SS.

8.  Angels:  Christian Moore 2B, College.

2024(A):  .545/.583/1.000, HR, 8.3 BB%, 0.00 K%, 12 PA

2024(AA):  .322/.378/.533, 5 HR, 2 SB, 8.2 BB%, 29.6 K%, 98 PA.

Angels have been drafting college position players then force-feeding them to the majors.  Don't be surprised if Moore is the first member of this draft class to make his MLB debut.

9.  Pirates:  Konnor Griffin SS, HS.

First high school draftee.  Did not see game action after the draft.

10.  Nationals:  Seaver King, SS, College.

2024(A):  .295/.367/.385, 3 3B, 10 SB, 10.0 BB%, 14.4 K%, 90 PA.  

Contact/speed hitter who should stick at SS.

11.  Tigers:  Bryce Rainer SS, HS. 

Trend here of players drafted out of high school not seeing game action post-draft.

12.  Red Sox:  Braden Montgomery OF, College.

Did not see game action post-draft.

13.  Giants:  James Tibbs III OF, College.

2024(A):  .415/.429/.512, 2.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 42 PA.

2024(A+):  .134/.216/.239, 2 HR, 9.5 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.

A+ numbers look bad but if look at game logs, he went 1 for 46 in his first 11 games then went 8 for 26 with 2 HR in his last 6.  He should start 2025 in A+ Eugene and I think he will do great with a promo to AA by midseason.  I think he'll end up having more gap power than HR power but hit for a high average.

14.  Cubs: Cam Smith 3B, College.

2024(A):  .313/.404/.771, 6 HR, 14.0 BB%, 21.1 K%, 57 PA.

2024(A+);  .333/.421/.500, HR, 10.5 BB%, 15.8 K%, 57 PA.

2024(AA):  .263/.300/.474, 5.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 20 PA.

James Tibbs III teammate at FSU.  Great start to pro career.  Should move fast through the Cubs system.

15.  Mariners:  Jurrangelo Cijntje RHP/LHP, College.

Ambidextrous switch-pitcher.  Did not see game action post-draft.

16.  Marlins:  P J Morlando OF, HS.

Had just one PA post-draft.

17.  Brewers:  Braylon Payne OF, HS.

2024(A):  .438/.526/.625, 4 SB, 15.8 BB%, 15.8 K%, 19 PA.

Aggressive placement.  SSS.

18. Rays:  Theo Gillen OF, HS.

2024(A):  .154/.353/.192, SB, 23.5 BB%, 41.2 K%, 34 PA.

Aggressive placement.  SSS.

19.  Mets: Carson Benge OF, College.

2024(A):  .273/.420/.436, 2 HR, 3 SB, 15.9 BB%, 20.3 K%, 69 PA.

Pretty good numbers in a small sample.

20.  Blue Jays:  Trey Yesavage RHP, College.

Did not appear in games post draft.

21.  Twins:  Kaelen Culpepper SS, College.

2024(A):  .297/.366/.541, 2 HR, 2 SB, 7.3 BB%, 4.9 K%, 41 PA.

0224(A+):  .210/.310/.306, HR, 2 SB, 11.3 BB%, 18.3 K%, 71 PA.

Again we see a pattern where A ball may be to conservative a placement for college draftees but A+ may be too aggressive?  Bring back short season A ball!  Of how about start a fall league just for same season drafted players?

22.  Orioles:  Vance Honeycutt OF, College.

2024(A):  .226/.333/258, 4 SB, 11.1 BB%, 36.1 K%, 36 PA.

2024(A+):  .100/.100/.100, 0.0 BB%, 55.0 K%, 20 PA.

Very small sample but the rap on Honeycutt in college was too many K's.  Yikes!  

23.  Dodgers:  Kellon Lindsay SS, HS.

Another player drafted out of HS who did not appear in games post draft.

24.  Braves:  Cam Caminiti LHP, HS.

2024(A):  0-1, 3.00, 3 IP, 12.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

This is one I will watch closely.  Widely projected to go to the Giants at #13.  I like the Tibbs pick but suspect Caminiti may have a higher ceiling and the Giants have had a lot of success drafting HS pitchers, especially LHP's.

25.  Padres:  Kash Mayfield LHP, HS.

Did not appear in any pro games post-draft.

26.  Yankees:  Ben Hess RHP, College.

Did not appear in any game post-draft.

27.  Phillies:  Dante Nori OF, HS.

2024(A):  .240/.424/.280, 4 SB, 24.1 BB%, 21.2 K%, 66 PA.

Tools/speed project.  Did not appear in any top draft prospect rankings.

28.  Astros: Walker Janek C, College.

2024(A+):  .175/.214/.289, HR, 3.9 BB%, 29.1 K%, 103 PA.

Again, A+ is very aggressive placement even for a top college player immediately post-draft.

29.  D'Backs:  Slade Caldwell OF, HS.

Did not appear in any pro games.

30.  Rangers:  Malcolm Moore C, College.

2024(A+):  .209/.298/.374, 3 HR, 3 SB, 7.7 BB%, 27.9 K%, 104 PA.

Aggressive placement.

Summary: 

This draft was college-heavy, especially in the top half of the first round which usually means it is generally a weak draft.  I like James Tibbs III and think he will move up fast but wonder if Cam Caminiti might ultimately have a higher ceiling.  Later draft means fewer players see game action in their draft season, especially HS players.  In past, it was routine for players drafted out of college to be assigned to short season A ball and players out of HS assigned to rookie ball.  Teams now seem to struggle with where to place their drafted players or whether to just keep them in camp until the next full season.

Hot Stove League Update: Even the A's Overpay For Starting Pitching

The A's surprisingly jumped into the free agent market with a big....well, a modest splash signing Luis Severino RHP to a 3 year/$67 M contract.  Severino has an opt out clause after the second season.  MLBTR  projected him to get 3 yr's/$51 M so it looks like the free agent market, at least for starting pitchers is up significantly this year and the Montas and Boyd signings were not flukes.  This one hurts a little as some analysts saw a fit for Severino with the Giants so their list of SP options continues to shrink.  That it's the lowly A's who got him and went past projections makes it a little more concerning.  

Severino was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018, but then suffered a lont string of injuries which severely limited his appearances and effectiveness for the next 5 seasons including no appearances in 2020.  He had a pretty good comeback seasons for the postseason-bound Mets with a line of 11-7, 3.91, 182 IP, 7.96 K/9, 2.97 BB/9.  His FIP was a bit higher at 4.21.  He had a modestly positive ground ball rate.  Although his FB velocity remained equal to his early career, he was significantly more hittable. 

This contract continues the trend that one healthy season gets SP's a multi-year contract.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2023 Giants Draft

1.  Bryce Eldridge OF/1B/RHP, HS.

Eldridge still has a ways to go in his development and a lot can still go wrong but so far he looks like a home run pick and if you hit a home run with your first rounder, it's great draft no matter what happens to the rest of the picks.

2.  Walker Martin SS HS.

2024(ACL);  .229/.413/.382, 6 HR, 4 SB, 21.2 BB%, 37.6 K%, 189 PA.

2024(A):  .202/.358/.333, 2 HR, 2 SB, 17.1 BB%, 46.3 K%, 123 PA.

Two-sport star in HS and was a HS football QB.  Great size and athleticism.  The key, as with all highly athletic prospects is can they hit?  Martin did not get into any games in his draft season and got a late start on 2024 due to a hamstring strain.  The extremely high BB and K percents suggests he was too tentative at the plate and may need to work on making contact earlier in counts.  I saw him play in A ball late in the season.  I thought it looked like he might be "grooving" his swing.  I think he was considered a long-term project when drafted and he remains so but his size and athleticism give him a high ceiling.

2C.  Joe Whitman LHP, College.

2024(A):  1-5, 4.29, 50.1 IP, 9.66 K/9, 4.65 BB/9.

2024(A+):  2-3, 4.96, 52.2 IP, 9.23 K/9, 1.88 BB/9.

Not great numbers for a high-round college draftee at lower levels.  Peripherals were much better in A+ than A for some reason so maybe his skills progressed over the course of the season.

3.  Cole Foster SS, College.

2024(A):  .247/.336/.370, 3 HR, 5 SB, 7.5 BB%, 19.7 K%, 254 PA.

2024(A+):  .117/.160/.169, 1 HR, 2 SB, 4.9 BB%, 48.1 K%, 81 PA.

Disappointing numbers for a college draftee from a major conference.  Needs to turn it around dramatically in 2025.

4.  Maui Ahuna SS, College.

2024(ACL):  .342/.405/.658, 3 HR, 3 SB, 4.8 BB%, 33.3 K%, 42 PA.

2024(A):  .236/.355/.281, HR, 5 SB, 15.0 BB %, 26.2 K%, 107 PA.

Pro career marred by injuries as was his junior season in college.  First order of business is to stay healthy for a full season's worth of PA's.

5.  Quinn McDaniel 2B, College.

2024(A+):  .236/.345/.390, 13 HR, 40 SB, 13.1 BB%, 32.5 K%, 511 PA.

A little bit of pop and a lot of speed with a high walk rate that partially mitigates a high K rate.  If he gets the K rate under 30% he could be a dynamic player at higher levels.

6.  Luke Shliger C, College.

2024(A):  .228/.395/.312, HR, 10 SB, 18.1 BB%, 18.1 K%, 276 PA.

2024(A+):  .279/.362/.443, 2 HR, SB, 10.0 BB%, 30.0 K%, 70 PA.

Some weird numbers in both lines likely from too-small sample sizes to draw any conclusions.  If the bat settles somewhere in between there might be a future lefty-hitting platoon catcher in their somewhere.

7.  Scott Bandura OF, College.

2024(A):  .276/.389/.362, 5 SB, 11.1 BB%, 19.0 K%, 126 PA.

2024(A+):  .227/.332/.374, 6 HR, 19 SB, 247 PA.

Love the size, athleticism and backstory(he was Mo'ne Davis' little league catcher and went to college at Princeton).  You worry about promotion to AA when you see numbers like the A+ line.  It's an OK line when you factor in walk rate but IMO, BA is still a better predictor of success at higher levels than walk rate.

8.  Josh Bostick RHP, JC.

2024(A):  2-9, 4.78, 107.1 IP, 10.15 K/9, 3.69 BB/9

Perfect height and frame for a pitcher.  I saw him pitch in August.  FB sat 92 MPH and touched 94.  Inconsistent command.

9.  Charlie Szykowny SS, College.

2024(A):  .340/.405/.505, 2 HR, 8.3 BB%, 18.6 K%, 242 PA.

2024(A+):  .235/.300/.379, 4 HR, 4 SB, 5.9 BB%, 170 PA.

2024(AFL):  .274/.297/.419, 2 HR, 2 SB, 2 BB, 12 K, 64 PA.

Played exclusively 3B last season.  AA will challenge the bat.

10.  Ryan Vanderhei RHP, College.

2024(ACL):  0-0, 6.23, 8.2 IP, 11.42, K/9, 3.12 BB/9.

2024(A):  2-3, 3.58/.37.2 IP, 8.84 K/9, 4.78 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB.

Tall, lanky RHP.  FB ran 90-92 in my look.  Inconsistent command.

11.  Jack Payton C, College.

2024(ACL):  .361/.477/.500, 2 SB, 13.6 BB%, 22.7 K%, 44 PA.

2024(A):  .246/.408/.385, 2 HR, 17.2 BB%, 19.2 K%, 157 PA.

2024(A+):  .206/.292/.302, HR, 6.9 BB%, 20.8 K%, 72 PA.

Payton was drafted as a hit-first catcher from Louisville who seems to be moving toward 1B defensively.  Unfortunately he hasn't hit much and appears to be suffering from "FZ Disease", too passive at the plate.

12.  Timmy Manning LHP, College.

2024(ACL):  1-0, 2.00, 9 IP, 15.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9.

2024(A):  3-2, 2.74, 23 IP, 7.83 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 1 Save.

Ratios at A level unimpressive but small sample.

13.  Jose Ortiz OF, HS.

2024(ACL:  .306/.455/.400, HR, 10 SB, 12.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 112 PA.

Giants have not had a lot of success drafting high schoolers out of Puerto Rico.  Nice numbers in the ACL.  He went hitless in just 3 PA for A San Jose.  2025 will be a key season for him.

14.  Cale Lansville RHP, JC.

2024(A):  3-4, 4.36, 74.1 IP, 8.35 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 1.78 GB/FB.

2024(AFL):  0-2, 3.45, 15.2 IP, 10.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9.

Saw him pitch early in season in Lake Elsinore with a line of 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  Looked solid.  FB 92 MPH with pretty good secondary pitches and good command.  Strong GB rate.  Pitched well in the AFL which is roughly AA level in a hitter-friendly environment.

15. Dylan Carmouche LHP, College.

2024(A):  8-2, 2.74, 92 IP, 8.80 K/9, 4.01 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-2, 5.34, 30.1 IP, 11.57 K/9, 2.67 BB/9.

Ratios improved a lot after promotion to A+ but ERA worse in a small sample.  Don't have a scouting report on him but 6' 6" LHP's don't grow on trees.

16.  Justin Wishkoski 3B, College.

2024(A+):  .261/.349/.375, 5 HR, 16 SB, 8.6 BB%, 17.6 K%, 324 PA.

2024(AA):  .243/.331/.340, 2 HR, 2 B, 8.3 BB%, 17.5 K%, 120 PA.

Disappointing power but ratios held up well after promotion to AA.  Played all 4 IF positions last season.  If a little power comes he can be a useful utility player.

17.  Drew Cavanaugh, C, College.

2024(A):  .230/.364/.333, 2 HR, 14.9 BB%, 29.2 K%, 154 PA.

2024(AAA):  .300/.400/.300, 11.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AFL):  .200/.294/.267, 4 BB, 10 K, 34 PA.

Success at AAA likely a SSS anomaly, but lefty hitting catchers are going to get extra chances.

18.  Michael Rodriguez LHP, College.

2024(ACL):  1-0, 1.93, 4.2 IP, 11.57 K/9, 5.79 BB/9.

2024(A):  1-1, 6.92, 13 IP, 4.15 K/9, 7.62 BB/9.

Has only pitched a total of 20 innings as a pro.  Samples sized way to small to make much judgment but appears to have severe command/control issues.

19.  Tommy Kane LHP, College.  

2024(A):  2-2, 2.31, 23.1 IP, 10.41 K/9, 3.47 BB/9.

2024(A+):  1-2, 5.40, 31.2 IP, 9.38 K/9, 5.68 BB/9.

Numbers fell off after midseason promotion to A+.

20.  Nadir Lewis OF, College.

2024(A):  .155/.275/.241, HR, 14.5 BB%, 34.8 K%, 69 PA.

College teammate of Scott Bandura at Princeton.  Weak numbers in what should be a conservative placement for a college draftee.  Love the name, though.  Maybe his 2024 stat line was his nadir?

Summary:  Bryce Eldridge makes this draft a success so far all by himself.  Not much to get excited about in the rest of the draft but 2 or 4 of the pitchers could find success at higher levels and Martin is still a high reward/high risk pick in round 2.

Hot Stove League Update: OMG! The Cost of Bad Pitching!

For those of you, like me, who thought the Giants might be better off spending their available payroll on a couple of "innings eating" pitchers instead of a frontline starter, the Hot Stove League delivered a jolting dose of reality with the reported signings of two "bargain bin" pitchers to shockingly large contracts.  These two pitchers were Frankie Montas RHP and Matthew Boyd LHP and let's break it down:

The first shoe to drop was Frankie Montas to the Mets for a reported 2 yrs/$34 M divided evenly into $17 M each season, but with an opt-out after the 2025 season.  Montas missed much of 2022 and all of 2023 with injuries and underwent shoulder labrum surgery in Feb 2023.  The Reds signed him to a "pillow" contract for 1 yr/$14 M with a mutual option for 2024 and a $2 M buyout giving him a total of $16 M for the one season.  He was traded to the Brewers at the trade deadline.

2024(2 teams):  7-11, 4.84, 150.2 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 0.6 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR.  

His K rate took a jump after the trade and his ERA improved from 5.01 with the Reds to 4.55 but his bWAR value with the Brewers was 0.0. So, he did eat innings last year but overall they were not great innings.  Granted, both of his home ballparks are very hitter-friendly and maybe that's what the Mets are counting on?  They are paying him considerably more the MLBTR projection of 2 yr/$22 M.

Matthew Boyd signed a 2 yr/29 M contract with an additional $1 M in performance bonuses.  Boyd was sort of a league-average pitcher for the Tigers before his career was derailed by injuries.  He underwent surgery for a torn flexor tendon in 2021.  He was actually signed as a free agent by the Giants in March 2022 as one of FZ's reclamation projects.  He was then traded to the Mariners along with Curt Casali C for Michael Stryfeller RHP and Andy Thomas C/1B on 8/2/2022 before he even pitches in a rehab assignment.  Memba that?  He made 10 relief appearances for the Mariners and then signed a free agent contract with the Tigers in 2023 but underwent Tommy John surgery around mid-season.  He the signed a free agent contract with the Guardians for 2024 and made 8 starts late last season with a fine 2.72 ERA.  Boyd and the Cubs now hope his injury siege is over and he will continue pitching like he did last season.

The common denominator for free agent pitchers signed so far is they all are not attached to a Qualifying Offer.  Per MLBTR, there are now just 4 pitchers without QO's projected to get multi-year contracts left on the market:  Jack Flaherty RHP, Nathan Eovaldi RHP, Andrew Heaney LHP and Jose Quintana LHP and one has to wonder what kinds of a huge contract Flaherty is going to get after seeing these numbers for Montas and Boyd.  And all those young pitchers on the Giants 40-man roster who may or may not be ready to break out in 2025?  Buster Posey must be looking at them through much rosier colored glasses today.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2023 First Round

1.  Pirates:  Paul Skenes RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 0.99, 27.1 IP, 14.82 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.86 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  11-3, 1.96, 133 IP, 11.50 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.66 GB/FB.

Dylan Crews was the consensus top prospect throughout the draft cycle but Skenes had a tremendous college season and word got out in the week leading up to the draft that the Pirates were seriously considering him.  Although Crews may well end up being the more valuable MLB player in the long run, it's hard to remember any 1-1 draft pick making such a huge immediate impact as Skenes.  Maybe he will be among the handful of durable super-ace pitchers in baseball history like Justin Verlander but given his high 90's velocity and touching triple digits, chances are there is a TJ surgery in his future at some point.  But for now, home run pick by the Pirates!

2.  Nationals:  Dylan Crews OF, College.

2024(AA):  .274/343/.446, 5 HR, 15 SB, 7.6 BB%, 23.7 K%, 211 PA.

2024(AAA):  .265/.340/.455, 8 HR, 10 SB, 8.4 BB%, 17.6 K%, 238 PA.

2024(MLB):  .218/.288/.353, 3 HR, 12 SB, 8.3 BB%, 19.7 K%, 132 PA.

The Nationals were going to draft either Crews or Skenes but had to wait for the Pirates to dictate which it would be.  Crews didn't quite set the minor leagues on fire and scuffled a bit in his small sample MLB debut but there is no reason to not expect him to be an impact player for a long time.

3.  Tigers:  Max Clark OF, HS.

2024(A):  .286/.386/.421, 7 HR, 26 SB, 14.4 BB%, 17.4 K%, 333 PA.

2024(A+):  .264/.344/.421, 2 HR, 3 SB, 8.3 BB%, 22.9 K%, 157 PA.

Modest power which may increase with maturity, excellent speed and defense in CF.  A+ is an agressive level for a HS draftee to reach in his first full pro season so Clark is on track to be a future impact player at he MLB level.

4.  Rangers:  Wyatt Langford OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .253/.325/.415, 16 HR, 19 SB, 9.2 BB%, 20.6 K%, 557 PA.

That's an impressive MLB debut even for a top college player in his first full pro season.  Plenty to build on here and should be in impact player for many years.

5.  Twins:  Walker Jenkins, OF, HS.

2024(FCL):  .393/.514/.571, 3 SB, 21.6 BB%, 5.4 K%, 37 PA.

2024(A):  .273/.404/.413, 3 HR, 4 SB, 18.5 BB%, 11.3 K%, 151 PA.

2024(A+):  .290/.382/.481, 3 HR, 8 SB, 11.2 BB%, 15.8 K%, 152 PA.

2024(AA):  .160/.250/.200, 2 SB, 10.7 BB%, 14.3 K%, 28 PA.

Again, A+ is aggressive advancement for a HS draftee in his first full pro season.  The late season cameo at AA just gives him a look at what he has to get ready for in 2025. Super-impressive numbers at A and A+ levels.

6.  A's:  Jacob Wilson SS, College.

2024(AA):  .455/.473/.705, 3 HR, 2 SB, 2.2 BB%, 10.8 K%, 93 PA.

2024(AAA):  .396/.448/.613, 4 HR, 7.8 BB%, 4.3 K?%, 116 PA.

2024(MLB):  .250/.314/.315, 7.8 BB%, 9.7 K%, 103 PA, 0.1 fWAR.

Wilson is the son of a former major leaguer and has an extremely advanced skill set.  Modest MLB debut impressive for first full pro season with plenty to build on.

7. Reds:  Rhett Lowder RHP, College.

2024(A+):  2-0, 2.49, 25.1 IP, 10.30 K/9, 2.13 BB/9.

2024(AA):  4-4, 4.31, 77.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.09 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 10.5 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-2, 1.17, 30.2 IP, 6.46 K/9, 4.11 BB/9.

Ratios dropped dramatically after MLB debut.  Is that second-half fatigue setting in or did he reach his talent ceiling?  I wasn't a huge Lowder fan going into the draft.  2025 should be a telling season.

8.  Royals:  Blake Mitchell C, HS.

2024(A):  .238/.376/.439, 18 HR, 25 SB, 17.0 BB%, 30.5 K%, 466 PA.

2024(A+):  .111/.200/.111, SB, 5.0 BB%, 35.0 K%, 20 PA.

HS catchers are the highest risk draft demographic.  A level is appropriate for first full season and those numbers look quite good except for a high K rate.  Would ignore the extremely small A+ sample and consider it a head start on 2025.

9.  Rockies:  Chase Dollander RHP, College.

2024(A+):  4-1, 2.83, 70.0 IP, 14.27 K/9, 3.60 BB/9.

2024(AA):  2-1, 2.25, 48 IP, 10.88, 3.56 BB/9.

Dollander was the consensus top pitcher in the draft at the start of the cycle and was #1 overall on one early ranking.  He had an OK but disappointing junior season but looks fine so far in pro ball with normal progression.

10.  Marlins:  Noble Meyer RHP, HS.

2024(A):  2-2, 2.65, 34 IP, 11.38 K/9, 6.09 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-5, 5.18, 40.0 IP, 9.45 K/9, 7.20 BB/9.

Premium HS arm who needs to develop better command of his pitches.

11.  Angels:  Nolan Schanuel, 1B, College.

2024(MLB):  .250/.343/.362, 13 HR, 10 SB, 11.2 BB%, 17.0 K%, 607 PA.

Good numbers that should get better considering he's being force-fed at the MLB level.

12.  D'Backs:  Tommy Troy SS, College.

2024(A+):  .227/.319/.347, 5 HR, 16 SB, 10.4 BB%, 22.2 K%, 288 PA.  

Somewhat polarizing prospect out of Stanford who was widely projected to go to the Giants.  Probably a good thing for the Giants D'Backs took him off the board, not that he's a failed prospect at this point.

13.  Cubs:  Matt Shaw SS, College.

2024(AA):  .279/.373/.468, 14 HR, 25 SB, 12.1 BB%, 17.5 K%, 371 PA.

2024(AAA):  .298/.395/.534, 7 HR, 6 SB, 11.2 K%, 19.7 BB%, 152 PA.

The rap on Shaw coming out of college was he might not stick at SS.  Well, the bat looks like it will play anywhere!  He is working at SS/3B and 2B in the pros.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who loves colorful descriptions said "Shaw is a power-hitting stick of dynamite who crushed pro ball after the draft.  With Nico Hoerner post-surgery, expect Shaw in the Cubs lineup somewhere from Opening Day.

14.  Red Sox:  Kyle Teel C, College.

2024(AA):  .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 9 SB, 12.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 382 PA.

2024(AAA):  .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 123 PA.

Given FZ's fetish with catchers, I thought Teel would be the Giants pick if he fell that far.  That didn't happen but he would have been a fine pick if it did.

15. White Sox:  Jacob Gonzalez SS, College.

2024(A+):  .273/.364/.399, 3. HR, 7 SB, 11.5 BB%, 10.3 K%, 165 PA.

2024(AA):  .225/.284/.321, 5 HR, 10 SB, 6.9 BB%, 14.0 K%, 407 PA.

AA is an aggressive placement for first full pro season.  He can repeat the level and still be in good development position.

16. Giants:  Bryce Eldridge 1B/OF/RHP, HS.

2024(A):  .263/.323/.478, 10 HR, 2 SB, 7.4 BB%, 26.6 K%, 229 PA.

2024(A+):  .335/.442/.618, 12 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 215 PA.

2024(AA):  .270/.325/.459, HR, SB, 7.5 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA.

2024(AAA):  .226/.314/.226, 11.4 BB%, 31.4 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AFL):  .293/.348/.512, 2 HR, 3 BB, 16 K, 46 PA.

It's still early but this is shaping up to be a draft for the ages.  Fortunately it looks like the Giants didn't miss the party with Eldridge.  Drafted as a 2-way athlete, he never pitched and hit so well out of the gate decided to concentrate on that.  Could well make his MLB debut in 2025.

17.  Orioles:  Enrique Bradfield Jr OF, College.

2024(A+):  .267/.345/.363, 3 HR, 59 SB, 10.0 BB%, 16.6 K%, 349 PA.

2024(AA)):  .287/.395/.396, HR, 15 SB, 12.5 BB%, 11.7 K%, 120 PA.

Blazing speed but not much power.  That's demographic has had it tough for over a decade but Bradfield's ratios look like he might overcome that.  Given some of Buster's statements about how he envisions constructing the Giants roster to fit the ballpark, you have to wonder if he might have popped Bradfield instead of Eldridge if he was the POBO then.

18.  Brewers:  Brock Wilken 3B, College.

2024(AA):  .199/.312/.363, 17 HR, 13.4 BB%, 28.2 K%, 471 PA.

Might have been the top power hitter in the draft.  Looks like a classic 3-true outcomes guy which is a demographic I am skeptical of at the minor league level.

19.  Rays:  Brayden Taylor 3B, College.

2024(A+):  .269/.389/.513, 14 HR, 26 SB, 15.9 BB%, 24.9 K%, 383 PA.

2024(AA):  .194/.290/.435, 6 HR, 3 SB, 12.0 BB%, 36.8 K%, 125 PA.

Some analysts thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft.  A+ is an appropriate level with AA being an aggressive promotion.

20.  Blue Jays:  Arjun Nimmala SS, HS.

2024(FCL):  .238/.467/.571, HR, 30.0 BB%, 23.3 K%, 30 PA.

2024(A):  .232/.313/.476, 16 HR, 9 SB, 8.3 BB%, 31.3 K%, 361 PA.

Eric's take on Fangraphs:  "Nimmala is a tooled-up teenage hitter with huge power projection and a risky hit tool caused by poor breaking ball recognition."  Has time to develop skills to back back up the tools.

21.  Cardinals:  Chase Davis OF, College.

2024(A):  .232/.337/.401, 8 HR, 5 SB, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, 315 PA.

2024(A+):  .301/.388/.451, 3 HR, 10.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 129 PA.

2024(AA):  .250/.323/.429, HR, 3 SB, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, 31 PA.

Late helium in the draft cycle.  Not sure what to make of these numbers his A+ and AA numbers are better than his A line but smaller samples.  2025 could be a pivotal season for him.

22.  Mariners:  Colt Emerson SS, HS.

2024(A):  .293/.440/.427, 2 HR, 6 SB, 18.1 BB%, 14.0 K%, 193 PA.

2024(A+):  .225/.331/.317, 2 HR, 9 SB, 10.8 BB%, 21.6 K%, 139 PA.

Again, promotion to A+ is aggressive but seems to be the new normal and gives him a head start on 2025.

23.  Guardians:  Ralphy Velasquez C, HS.

2024(A):  .243/.362/.414, 10 HR, 8 SB, 15.0 BB%, 20.1 K%, 373 PA.

2024(A+):  .176/.275/.250, HR, 12.5 BB%, 25.0 K%, 80 PA.

Ditto.

24.  Braves:  Hursten Waldrep RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-4, 2.92, 49.1 IP, 8.76 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.

2024(AAA):  2-2, 3.38, 40.0 IP, 9.68 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 1.42 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  0-1, 16.71, 7 IP, 3.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 1.10 GB/FB.

Faceplanted at MLB level but it was an aggressive promotion and a small sample.  Looks like command needs some refinement.

FB 95.8 MPH.

25.  Padres:  Dillon Head OF, HS.

2024(A, Padres):  .237/.317/.366, HR, 3 SB, 8.7 BB%, 24.0 K%, 104 PA.

2024(A, Marlins):  .333/.333/.500, 2 SB, 0.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA.

2024(ACL, Marlins):  .167/.286/.667, HR, 14.3 BB%, 28.6 K%, 7 PA.

Traded by the Padres to the Marlins for Luis Arraez.  Beset by a series of injuries after that.  Had surgery for a hip acetabular impingement. Yikes!  

26.  Yankees:  George Lombard SS, HS.

2024(A):  .232/.344/.348, 5 HR, 30 SB, 12.8 BB%, 24.0 K%, 366 PA.

2024(A+):  .226/.321/.296, 9 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.8 K%, 131 PA.

Familiar development pattern shows up again.

27.  Philies:  Aiden Miller 3B, HS.

2024(A):  .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 10 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 182 PA.

2024(A+):  .258/.353/.444, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 258 PA.

2024(AA):  .190/.227/.190, SB, 0.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 22 PA.

2024(A):  .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 10 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 182 PA.

2024(A+):  .258/.353/.444, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 258 PA.

2024(AA):  .190/.227/.190, SB, 0.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 22 PA.

I read one predraft analyst who thought Miller was the best pure HS hitter in the draft.  These numbers don't contradict that notion.

28.  Astros:  Brice Matthews SS, College.

2024(A+):  .321/.423/.580, 6 HR, 10 SB, 14.4 BB%, 26.8 K%, 97 PA.

2024(AA):  .252/.376/.497, 9 HR, 16 SB, 13.3 BB%, 33.7 K%, 181 PA.

2024(AAA):  .143/.250/.190, 3 SB, 6.3 BB%, 39.6 K%, 48 PA.

Should start 2025 in AAA and should hit better.  A Mining the News note in Fangraphs says he has fringy arm strength for both SS and 3B and could move to 2B or CF in the majors.

Summary:

Wow! What first round!  It's still early and there will undoubtedly be dropouts but the early returns point to this possibly being one of the greatest draft classes of all time.  Fortunately it looks like the Giants did not miss out on drafting a gem with Eldridge at #16.