Hot Stove League Update: Is My Dream Offseason Feasable?

 What would a perfect Hot Stove League campaign for the Giants look like?  I have some thoughts as well as an analysis for whether that is financially feasable for them.  The big unknown in all of this is how much payroll are they willing to take on both long term and this season.  The Giants have minimal committed longterm payroll obligations so I don't think that is much of a factor although that will grow substantially if they take on several longterm deals this winter and they have to leave room to lock up young stars like Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano if they find the kind of success we all hope for from them.  I assume the Giants are not willing to go significantly above the CBT threshold this year which will then become the rate-limiting step in how close they can get to my dream scenario.  

Using Cot's Contract website numbers, the 2024 CBT threshold is $237 M while the Giants have $168, 226, 667 currently committed including benefits and 40-man roster obligations leaving $68, 773, 333 to spend(CBT salaries are the average AAV for the duration of the contract, not what actually gets paid in 2024).  

With that said, I present my dream Hot Stove League championship run(contracts are MLBTR predictions which are usually the most accurate of the predictions out there):

1.  Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP:  9 yr/$225 M.  AAV $25 M.  It's a close call whether the Giants need an ace pitcher or a cleanup hitter more, but the only true cleanup hitter on the market, Shohei Ohtani is widey projected to cost more that twice as much in both total compensation and AAV which I find very scary and not worth it when they can fill an almost equal need in Yamamoto.  Just to be clear, they almost certainly cannot afford to sign both Ohtani and Yamamoto.  

2.  Sign Jung-Hoo Lee CF:  5 yr/$50 M.  AAV $10 M.  There is also a posting fee but that does not count against the CBT threshold.  Lee is not a middle-of-the-order hitter but he fills a widely identified need as a true CF.  He has elite bat-to-ball and on-base skills and occasional HR power.  He would be a close to ideal leadoff hitter moving the 1B platoon of Lamonte Wade Jr  and Wilmer Flores down the order.

3. Sign Sean Manaea LHP:  2 yr/$22 M.  AAV $11 M.  Hey!  While MLBTR's prediction for Manaea is for more than the $12 5 M he walked away from the AAV is $1.5 M less!  Manaea gets to continue working with some of the coaches who helped him gain velocity on his FB and a manager he's worked with before and won't jerk him around like Kap did.  With the crazy price of pitching this is a bargain for the Giants.

4.  Sign Brandon Belt DH/1B:  1 yr/$15 M.  AAV $15 M.  Giants need a lefty bat to replace and upgrade Joc Pederson.  Belt is not Ohtani but he's a lefty bat who can DH and is an upgrade over Joc.  

5.  Sign Tim Anderson SS:  1 yr/$12 M.  AAV $12 M.  This one was suggested by a reader/commenter a few posts back and it's grown on me.  Anderson is a plus defender at SS.  His offensive production inexplicably dropped off the table last year.  Before that, he provided excellent power/speed numbers.  This contract is low risk with a high reward.  A little more salt for Marco Luciano in Sacramento won't hurt anyone and he can still be the fallback plan.

This fills all the Giants needs except a true cleanup hitter.  It hangs onto their young pitching and they can still trade for a big bat if they can find a cost-controlled one available.  

Here's the problem:  This all adds up to an addition of $73 M to the 2024 CBT payroll which puts the Giants about $ 4 M over the limit before considering additional trades either preseason or at the trade deadline.  Options:

Find trade partners for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater which trims about $11 M.  

Tim Anderson is a luxury sign.  Not signing him and just going with Luciano at SS with Schmitt and Fitz as backups trims off another $12 M.

Belt would be nice but they could go for a poor man's Belt and sign Dan Vogelbach for a fraction of $15 M.  If they do all 3 of these adjustments that frees up $38 M to fund a trade for a true cleanup hitter like a Juan Soto or Pete Alonso.  (I guess they would not need Belt or Vogelbach if they traded for Soto.  Only problem is I doubt SD trades Soto within the division).

Hot Stove Update: Second Tier Free Agents Jumping Market

Conventional Wisdom says second tier free agents have to wait their turn in the queue until the top tier guys sign and "set the market."  We seem to be seeing a new trend that started last year of teams that for one reason or another are not in the market for a top tier dude to jump the market and grab second tier guys at a price that is possibly higher than the player would get if they tried to wait out the market, so the players are signing some life-changing contracts with only a small probability they left money at the table.

Aaron Nola RHP was the first to sign early, re-upping with the only team he has played for with a whopping, eye-opening 7 yr/$170 M deal with the Phillies.  Today, we saw Sonny Gray RHP and Kenta Maeda RHP follow suit with teams they can help.

Aaron Nola beat MLBTR's prediction by 1 year/$25 M.  

Sonny Gray's total was $15 M less than MLBTR prediction but beat the AAV by $2.5 M.  

Kenta Maeda was predicted to get 2 yr/$36 M and settled for 2 yr/$24 M which is considerably less so he may have sold himself a bit short, but may have had other reasons to secure an early deal.

The Cardinals entered the postseason in desperate need of both quality and depth in their rotation and were rumored to be willing to trade from a surplus of hitting to get pitching.  Instead they added a frontline SP in Gray and a couple of innings eaters in Lynn and Gibson without giving up any of their hitting stockpile.  They can still trade hitting for pitching but can now afford to wait for a favorable deal as opposed to a desperation trade, although the AAV may be a bit of an overpay.

The Tigers may have a steal of a deal on their hands as Maeda, coming off a missed season due to the "internal brace" version of Tommy John Surgery, compiled a modest 4.23 ERA in 104.1 IP, but that came with a stellar 10.09/2.42 K/BB which portends to possibly better things to come, although at 35 yo he is getting up there in years for a pitcher.

So what, if anything, does all this have to do with the Giants?  Maybe nothing but some fans think that last Hot Stove League season, FZ let the second tier market get away from him while he was chasing the top tier and when the top tier didn't work out he was left scrambling to sign damaged players for above-market prices and terms(like opt outs).  Are we starting to see the outline of that same dynamic here?

Scouting the 2024 Draft: J. J. Wetherholt

 J. J. Wetherholt 2B, College(West Virginia).  DOB:  9/10/2002.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 190 lbs.  

2022(WV):  .308/.411/.471, 17 2B, 5 HR, 15 SB, 26 BB, 43 K, 246 PA.

2023(WV):  .449/.517/..787, 24 2B, 16 HR, 36 SB, 26 BB, 22 K, 268 PA.

2023(CCBL):  .321/.406/.571, HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 32 PA.

Another bat-first college infielder whose bat may be enough to make scouts not care that he's probably limited to 2B.  His .449 BA led all qualified D1 hitters in 2023.  He sports a miniscule K rate combined with both power and SB speed.  He has a quick, compact swing that produces those numbers.  Beyond that, scouting reports are sketchy but a lack of arm strength seems to be what limits him to 2B.  Prospects Live has him as their #2 college draft prospect.  MLB Pipeline has him #2 in their early mock draft and My MLB Draft has him going at #7.

Hot Stove League Update: Minor Signings: Around the League

 Hey team!  I hope everybody is having a great Thanksgiving.  Sorry I have not posted more often but the Hot Stove is barely warm and I've been crazy busy and stressed with work and family responsiblities.  

The Giants Hot Stove is barely smoldering as we head into Thanksgiving weekend with no major activity at the MLB level.  They have signed three minor league free agents who we will catch up on here:

Yusniel Diaz OF.  DOB:  10/7/2023.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 215 lbs.  AA:  .278/.374/.484, 16 HR, 7 SB, 13.8 BB%, 19.2 K%, 406 PA.  If this name sounds familiar, he was once a top prospect in the Dodgers system signed out of Cuba.  He was traded to the Orioles in 2018 for Manny Machado and was subsequently the top rated prospect in the O's system.  He has struggled at higher levels and managed just one MLB PA in which he struck out.  He's now 27 yo and running out of time but continued to show power and intriguing K/BB in AA last season.  The Giants placed him on the AAA roster is a depth option 

Chase Pinder OF.  DOB:  3/16/1996.   B-R, T- R.  5'10", 185 lbs.  AAA:  .265/.401/.417, 6 HR, 8 SB, 17.2 BB%, 23.7 K%, 279 PA.  Chad Pinder's lil' bro.  The Giants are looking for a true CF and Pinder fits the description.  Not a lot of power but terrific K/BB's.  Signs a minor league deal with the Giants after spending his entire pro career in the Cardinals organization.

Spencer Howard RHP.  DOB:  7/28/2023.  6'3", 210 lbs.  AAA(Rangers):  1-1, 5.40, 18.1 IP, 14.73 K/9, 3.44 BB/9.  AAA(Yankees):  0-1, 16.88, 2.2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.  MLB(Rangers):  0-0, 10.80, 3.1 IP, 5.40 BB/9, 8.10 BB/9.  Howard was once a top rated prospect with the Phillies whose career has been derailed by a string of injuries.  Giants will give him the low-risk chance to stay healthy and regain his top prospect form of 4 impact pitches.

*************************************************************************************

Around the League:

As was widely expected, Aaron Nola RHP re-signed with the Phillies for 7 yr/$170 M.  Nola has been a rock-steady, durable SP for the Phillies throughout his career after arriving in the majors less than 1 year after being the 7'th overall draft pick in 2014.  Still this seems like a long contract for a guy who is entering his age 31 season and had a bit of a down tick in 2023 with a 4.46 ERA and a fWAR of 3.9.  The FB velocity and K/BB remained strong so it's unlikely the contract will be a complete bust for the Phillies.  12-9, 4.46, 193 IP, 9.39 K/9, 2.09 BB/9.  xFIP= .3.63.  

Someone asked about Eugenio Suarez 3B for the Giants.  The Mariners traded him yesterday to the D'Backs for a couple of prospects.  Suarez is a good defensive 3B with some power who would compare favorably with Matt Chapman.  At his peak he hit 49 HR's with the Reds in 2019.  He was traded to the Mariners after a down season in 2021.  He's been extraordinarily durable with over 600 PA's in 6 of his 10 MLB seasons and all but 2 since 2015.  He's 32 yo and coming off a season where most of his value was on defense.

The Cardinals are well known to be hurting for SP's, so much so they are thought to be interested in trading from their overabundance of young OF's.  Well, they have already started to address that issue with 2 FA signings:  Lance Lynn RHP and Kyle Gibson RHP.  Lance Lynn's 2023 season went south in hail of HR's so the Cardinals are counting on him normalizing his HR/FB.  Kyle Gibson had a much better season by inducing a lot of GB outs, something some analysts thought might make him attractive to the Giants.  The Cardinals may still be interested in trading for more arms but they could also now be in position to be in play to sign a frontline SP like Yamamoto or Snell. 

Hot Stove League Update: Non-Tender Day

Is it just me or was there a huge wave of arbitration eligible players who were added to the free agent list across MLB Friday due to their teams  choosing to not offer them contracts?  The Giants were not one of those teams as they tendered contracts to all of their arbitration eligible players.  They also did not tender contracts to 3 non-arbitration eligible players who are now free agents....wait, what?  I didn't know they could do that!  

Breaking it all down, arb-eligible players Mike Yastrzemski OF and Austin Slater OF agreed to contracts of $7.9 M and $ 4 M respectively.  J. D. Davis 3B/1B, LaMonte Wade Jr 1B/OF, Tyler Rogers RHP and Thairo Estrada 2B/SS were all tendered contracts.  The last four players and the team now have until January 12 to exchange proposed salary figures to be decided in an arbitration hearing between January 29 and February 16.  They can settle on a contract and sign at any time up to the moment they walk into the hearing.  Got all that?  Good!

Now comes the weird part.  The Giants did not offer contracts to three non-arbitration eligible players, Jose Cruz RHP, Thomas Szapucki LHP and Cole Waites RHP.  If I understand correctly, these players do not pass through the waiver process but are free agents and can sign with any team, but are widely expected to sign minor league contracts with the Giants.  I have to say I am not sure what difference the waiver process makes in all this or why they were not just waived at the Rule 5 40-man roster deadline and makes me wonder even more if maybe Aeverson Arteaga and Grant McCray should have been added.  As it stands, the transactions leave 36 players on the 40-man roster.

There are rumblings of discontent among the fanbase on social media over the YtY and Slater signings.  In a vacuum, both contracts are close to no-brainers for the Giants, but I don't think that is what the naysayers among the fans are reacting to.  It's more about what this means for construction of the 26-man active roster where it's hard to see where any upgrades are going to fit.  Breaking that down further, there are likely to be, at most, 14 position players on the active roster on Opening Day:

Players Under Contract Without Options:  8.

Michael Conforto OF

Mitch Haniger OF

Mike Yastrzemski OF

Austin Slater OF

LaMonte Wade Jr 1B/OF

Thairo Estrada 2B

Wilmer Flores 1B/DH

J. D. Davis 3B/1B/DH

Likely Starters With Options:  2

Patrick Bailey C

Marco Luciano SS

Both Bailey and Luciano have options so theoretically these positions could be upgraded except there do not appear to be upgrade-caliber players on the market at these positions.

Necessary Reserves:  2

Catcher

Middle Infield

Again, it's unlikely FZ is going to find upgrades available at these positions.

That leaves just 1 or 2 potential roster spots to upgrade which can be added at any position but are likely going to have to be OF or DH.  If Matt Chapman 3B signs and nobody is dropped or traded, that leaves 0-1 upgradeable roster spots.  Granted, Chapman represents an upgrade at 3B over J. D. Davis but not to the degree the fanbase is looking for in the Hot Stove League.

If the fanbase had more faith in FZ's ability to construct a roster this would probably be less of a worry but by all appearances he tends to acquire whatever shiny object he happens to be looking at without much consideration of how they are going to fit on a roster.

2023 Draft Review: Giants Draft Review

 The Giants signed all 21 of their draft picks which included two overslot deals, Walker Martin in round 2 and Josh Bostick in round 8.  The rest were underslot to pay for the two overslots.  Their draft included 3 HS prospects, 2 JC and the rest from 4-year colleges.  They had an extra pick due to a declined QO by Carlos Rodon.  Let's take a look at the early returns:

Round 1:  Bryce Eldridge OF/RHP, HS.  DOB:  10/20/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6'7", 235 lbs.  ACL:  .294/.393/.647, 5 HR, 14.8 BB%, 26.2 K%.  A:  .293/.406/.379, HR, SB, 15.9 BB%, 26.1 K%.  Excellent start to pro career as a hitter.  Drafted as 2-way player so look for him to pitch some next season too.

Round 2:  Walker Martin SS, HS.  DOB:  2/20/2024.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 188 lbs.  DNP.  Not sure why he did not play post-signing.  Was he working on things?  Injury?  Giants were rumored to be in on him, possibly for first round, but they were targeting him for Round 2.  Turns out they knew what they were doing.  Can't wait to see what he does on the field.

Round 2C:  Joe Whitman LHP, College.  DOB:  9/17/2001.  6'5", 200 lbs.  ACL:  0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.  A:  1-0, 3.18, 5.2 IP, 14.29 K/9, 3.18 BB/9.  Whitman was a late riser and ranked as # 1 college LHP in the draft.  Giants grabbed him with the extra pick they got for losing Carlos Rodon to free agency.  3-pitch mix should allow him to rise fast.

Round 3:  Cole Foster SS, College.  DOB:  DOB:  10/8/2001. B-S, T-R.  6'1", 193 lbs.  ACL:  .333/.355/.700, 3 HR, 3.2 BB%, 32.3 K%, 31 PA.  A:  .230/.306/.390, 4 HR, 2 SB, 7.2 K%, 31.5 BB%, 111 PA.  K rates at lower levels worrisome but finished season strong with a 5-game hit streak going 8 for 21.

Round 4:  Maui Ahuna SS, College.  DOB:  DOB:  3/11/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 170 lbs. DNP.  Remarkable parallels to Brandon Crawford's college career.  Plus defensive SS, great sophomore campaign, scuffled at the plate junior season.  Some analysts, including Giants scouting director Michael Holmes, rate Ahuna as the top defensive SS in the draft class.  He has some power from the left side of the plate but K rate soared to over 30%.  Excited to see him take the field in 2024.

Round 5:  Quinn McDaniel 2B, College.  DOB:  9/27/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 180 lbs.   ACL:  .250/.471/.479, 3 HR, 6 SB, 28/6 BB%, 22.9 K%, 70 PA.  .267/.364/.511, 3 HR, 2 SB, 55 PA.  Intriguing power/speed combo but again we see the high walk and K rates.

Round 6:  Luke Shliger C, College.  DOB:  9/25/2001.  B-L, T-R.  5'9", 180 lbs.  A:  .298/.403/.351, 11.9 BB%, 14.9 K%, 67 PA.  Pretty good ratios at a low level for a college draftee.  We should see him in the Eugene Ems boxscores this spring.

Round 7:  Scott Bandura OF, College.  DOB:  8/2/2001.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 190 lbs.  ACL:  .400/.524/.667, HR, 23.8 BB%, 28/6 K%, 21 PA.  .241/.364/.405, 2 HR, 3 SB, 15.2 BB%, 26.3 K%, 99 PA.  Love the size and projectability.  Again we see the high K rates.

Round 8:  Josh Bostick RHP, JC.  DOB:  10/20/2001.  6'4", 205 lbs.  ACL:  0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 18.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 0-0, 10.80, 1.2 IP, 5.40 K/9, 5.40 BB/9.  Extremely small sample sizes.  Great size for pitcher.

Round 9:  Charlie Szykowny SS, College.  DOB:  6/30/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 225 lbs.  ACL:  .250/.391/.462, 2 HR, SB, 14.1 BB%, 21.9 K%, 64 PA.  A:  .239/.340/.304, 9.4 K%, 15.1 BB%, 53 PA.  College SS but size suggests he'll end up at a corner.  I do like seeing heights of 6'4" or more on several drafted position players.

Round 10:  Ryan Vanderhei RHP, College.  DOB:  6/1/2001.  6'6", 185 lbs.  DNP.  Don't know much about him.  Lover the height.

Round 11:  Jack Payton C, College.  DOB:  8/7/2001.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 200 lbs.  ACL:  .400/.483/.480, 6.9 BB%, 24.1 K%, 29 PA.  A:  .184/.244/.263, HR, 4.9 BB%, 19.5 K%, 41 PA.  Very small sample sizes.  Bat first college catcher.  2024 will be the real test. 

Round 12:  Timmy Manning LHP, College.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  6'2", 195 lbs.  ACL:  1-0, 2.25, 4 IP, 11.25 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.  Extreme SSS.  Too small to discern any indicators.

Round 13:  Jose Ortiz OF, HS.  DOB:  2/13/2005.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 165 lbs.  .167/.333/.167, 6.5 BB%, 32.3 K%, 31 PA.  Another very small sample.  Giants have drafted quite a few HS players out of Puerto Rico over the years without much success.

Round 14:  Cale Lansville RHP, JC.  DOB:  1/6/2003.  6'1", 205 lbs.  ACL:  1-0, 2.25, 4 IP, 6.75 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 4 IP.  A:  0-0, 5.14, 7 IP, 14.14 K/9, 3.86 BB/9.  More small samples.

Round 15:  Dylan Carmouche LHP, College.  DOB:  8/22/2001.  6'6", 225 lbs.  DNP.  No info.

Round 16:  Justin Wishkoski 3B, College.  DOB:  1/19/2001.  B-R, T-R, 6'3", 195 lbs.  ACL:  .375/.500/.563, HR, SB, 15.0 BB%, 1.7 K%, 60 PA.  A:  .209/.346/.302, HR, 13.5 BB%, 9.6 K%, 52 PA.  Interesting reversal of K/BB, but with conservative placements.

Round 17:  Drew Cavanaugh C, College.  DOB:  1/27/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 220 lbs.  ACL:  .300/.475, 333, 17.5 BB%, 25.0 K%, 40 PA.  A:  .250/.333/.250, 12.5 BB%, 29.2 K%, 24 PA. 

Round 18:  Michael Rodriguez LHP, College.  DOB:  1/8/2000.  6'5", 250 lbs.  ACL:  1-1, 7.71, 2.1 IP, 7.71 K/9, 11.57 BB/9.  Sample too small for any indicators.  Any LHP that big is interesting.

Round 19:  Tommy Kane LHP, College.  DOB:  10/31/2000.  6'1", 180 lbs.  2-1, 5.93, 13.2 IP, 11.20 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 2 Saves.  A:  0-1, 10.29, 7 IP, 12.86 K/9, 3.86 BB/9.  Ratios look better than ERA's.  SSS.

Round 20:  Nadir Lewis OF, College.  DOB:  11/22/2000.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 195 lbs.  ACL:  .220/.291/.360, HR, 2 SB, 7.3 BB%, 34.5 K%, 55 PA.  Teammate of Scott Bandura at Princeton.  More of a speed guy and more of a project.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Add Three Players to 40-Man Roster; Name Pitching Coach

 The Giants added 3 players, all pitchers, to the 40-man roster to beat the deadline for the Rule 5 Draft to be held during the Winter Meetings the first week in December.  The protected players were Erik Miller LHP, Kai-Wei Teng RHP and Trevor McDonald RHP.  None of these adds are a complete surprise.  Miller and Teng pitched in AAA so are more likely to have the experience necessary to stick on an active roster all season.  McDonald might be a reach but selecting an A ball pitcher and stashing them in a MLB bullpen for a season is not unheard of.  FZ obviously believes pitchers are more likely to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft and are willing to roll the dice that position prospects Grant McCray and Aeverson Arteaga who have not played above A ball either won't be selected or won't be able to stick on another team's active roster for a full season and thus would have to be offered back.  That is a reasonable approach although I would really hate to lose either McCray or Arteaga due to bad roster betting.

As was speculated, Bryan Price was named pitching coach.  Price is another veteran coach with managerial experience as the Giants continue their drive to create a coaching staff with gravitas and credibility with the players.

2023 Draft Review: First Round Review

 I probably should have done this before starting the Scouting the 2024 Draft series but better late than never, right?  It's fun to get a first return read on the draft by seeing how player performed in their first pro experience.  It's always a small sample size and not all that predictive of future success, but I will say it's definitely better for draft picks to perform well out of the gate than not.

1.  Paul Skenes RHP, Pirates(College):  ACL:  0-0, 0.00, 1 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.  A:  0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 12.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.  AA:  0-0, 13.50, 2.2 IP, 16.88 K/9, 6.75 BB/9.  Hard to make much out of this extremely small sample.  Skenes pitched 122.2 innings during the college season after pitching 85 innings the previous year.  I would have taken Dylan Crews with the first overall pick so will be following their careers with interest.  My comp for Skenes' ceiling is Justin Verlander but for every Justin Verlander there are about 50 Jameson Taillons.  

2.  Dylan Crews OF, Nationals(College):  FCL:  1.000/1.000/1.333, 0 BB, 0 K, 3 PA.  A:  .355/.423/.645, 5 HR, 8.5 BB%, 26.8 K%, 71 PA.  AA:  .208/.318/.278, 3 SB, 9.4 BB%, 22.4 K%, 85 PA.  Again, I would have taken Crews 1-1.  Elite hitter and athlete from an elite college conference.  Although he was at the top of most predraft rankings, I understand there were some scouts who worried about whether the bat would play at higher levels.  AA is an aggressive placement even for an elite college draftee but I would say the 27% K rate in A ball is a definite concern.

3.  Max Clark OF, Tigers(HS):  FCL:  .283/.411/.543, 2 HR, 4 SB, 16.1 BB%, 17.9 K%, 56 PA.  A:  .154/353/.179, 0 HR, 1 SB, 23.5 BB%, 29.4 K%, 51 PA.  First HS player selected.  Too good for the complex league but A ball is tough for a player fresh out of HS to drop into after most of the players have over half a season of experience under their belts.  HS draftees often struggle in A ball in their first full season.  Now Clark has seen what to expect and has a winter to prep.

4.  Wyatt Langford OF, Rangers(College):  ACL:  .385/.429/.846, HR, SB, 7.1 BB%, 21.4 K%, 14 PA.  A+:  .333/.453/.644, 5 HR, 7 SB, 17.0 K%, 17.0 BB%, 106 PA.  AA:  .405/.519/.762, 4 HR, SB, 20.4 BB%, 13.0 K%, 54 PA.  AAA:  .368/.538/.526, 0 HR, 3 SB, 23.1 BB%, 23.1 K%, 26 PA.  There were analysts who believed Langford was a better draft prospect than Dylan Crews and oh my!  They might have been right!  Pretty tough to top this for a pro debut.  Question is placement for 2024 and whether he sustain it over a full season.   Wow! The Rangers are on a roll!

5.  Walker Jenkins OF, Twins(HS):  FCL:  .333/.390/.537, 2 HR, 4 SB, 8.5 BB%, 13.6 K%, 59 PA.  A:  .392/.446/.608, HR, 2 SB, 7.1 BB%, 10.7 K%.  The predraft debate between Jenkins and Max Clark was the classic speed/athleticism vs bat/power.  Early returns indicate the right guy fell to the Twins.

6.  Jacob Wilson SS, A's(College):  ACL:  .455/.500/.636, 0.0 BB%, 8.3 K%, 12 PA.  A+:  .318/.378/.455, HR, 4 SB, 6.1 BB%, 10.1 K%, 99 PA.  Dad is former MLB SS Jack Wilson.  Put up elite secondary stats at Grand Canyon U but friendly hitting environment and questionable competition.  Put up nice looking numbers in a decent sample size with an aggressive placement in A+ out of the draft.

7.  Rhett Lowder RHP, Reds(College):  DNP.  Pitched deep into the College postseason with Wake Forest.  Reds understandably cautious.

8.  Blake Mitchell C, Royals(HS):  FCL:  .147/.423/.176, 32.7 BB%, 25.6 K%, 52 PA.  HS catcher demographic does not have a great track record for drafting success.  Royals will need to be patient.

9.  Chase Dollander RHP, Rockies(College):  DNP.  Preseason # 1 overall draft prospect on some boards.  Had an inconsistent junior season.  Coors Field does not sound like an ideal MLB destination.

10.  Noble Meyer RHP, Marlins(HS):  FCL:  0-1, 4.50, 4 IP, 13.5 K/9, 6.75 BB/9.  A:  0-0, 3.86, 7 IP, 11.57 K/9, 5.14 BB/9.  HS pitching is risky but the ceiling intriguing.  Meyer was #1 on my board out of the "big 3" HS pitchers.  I would have been happy had he fallen to the Giants and they took him.  Oh, and kudos to Kim Ng for landing 2 of those "big 3".  Marlins owner made a huge mistake letter her walk.

11.  Nolan Schanuel 1B, Angels(College):  ACL:  .250/.500/.375, 0 HR, 1 SB, 33.3 BB%, 8.3 K%, 12 PA.  A:  .833/.778/.833, 0 HR, 0 SB, 11.1 BB%, 0.0 K%, 9 PA.  AA:  .333/.474/.467, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21.1 BB%, 11.8 K%, 76 PA.  MLB:  .275/.402/.330, 1 HR, 0 SB, 15.2 BB%, 14.4 K%, 132 PA.  Wow!  I was a bit skeptical of Schanuel's video game numbers from a mid/low-major college program but wow!  The power didn't show up but other MLB numbers look fantastic after rocketing through the Angels system.  Will it prove to be a mirage when MLB pitchers get a book on him?

12.  Tommy Troy SS, D'Backs(College):  ACL:  .455/.563/.636, 0 HR, 1 SB, 25.0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 16 PA.  .247/.343/.447, 4 HR, 8 SB, 12.1 BB%, 26.3 K%, 99 PA.  Troy was the guy I was hoping would fall to the Giants.  Pretty nice numbers with an aggressive placement in A+ ball although the K rate might be a least a pink flag.  Turns out he did all is with a fractured bone in his foot and underwent surgery in Sept.

13.  Matt Shaw SS, Cubs(College):  ACL:  .500/.636/1.000, 1 HR, 2 SB, 18.2 BB%, 9.1 K%, 11 PA.  A+:  .393/.427/.655, 4 HR, 7 SB, 4.5 BB%, 13.5 K%, 89 PA.  AA:  .292/.329/.523, 3 HR, 6 SB, 4.3 BB%, 17.1 K%, 70 PA.  Very similar player to Tommy Troy.  I liked Troy slightly better and he went one pick ahead.  Nice pro debut for Shaw but will his swing early and often approach hold up at higher levels?

14.  Kyle Teel C, Red Sox(College):  FCL:  .429/.556/.857, 1 HR, 22.2 BB%, 0.0 K%, 9 PA.  A+:  .377/.485/.453, 0 HR, 1 SB, 16.7 BB%, 16.7 K%, 66 PA.  AA:  .323/.462/.484, 1 HR, 2 SB, 20.5 BB%, 28.2 K%, 39 PA.  Teel fell further than most mock drafts placed him.  Some had him as high as #6 overall.  Seeing has how he was a lefty-hitting catcher with elite K/BB I was convinced the Giants would draft him if he fell to them.  He almost did and he looks like he would have been a great pick.

15.  Jacob Gonzalez SS, White Sox(College):  ACL:  .250/.375/.250, 18.8 BB%, 12.5 K%, 16 PA.  A:  .207/.328/.261, 1 HR, 1 SB, 14.6 BB%, 16.8 K%, 137 PA.  Early preseason draft rankings had him as high as #4 overall.  Concerns about the bat dropped his stock.  Perhaps those concerns were well founded?

16.  Bryce Eldridge OF/RHP, Giants(HS):  ACL:  .294/.393/.647, 5 HR, 14.8 BB%, 26.2 K%, 61 PA.  A:  .293/.406/.379, 1 HR, 1 SB, 15.9 BB%, 26.1 K%, 69 PA.  I sniffed out Eldridge and his true 2-way potential late in the draft cycle but once he hit my radar screen I become more convinced by the hour the Giants were in on him.  Tremendous physical talent at 6'7", 235 lbs.  Has a short stroke that is quick to the ball as a hitter and looks like a hoss on the mound.  Giants shut him down on the pitching side after the draft but the hitting side really shined.  Can't wait to get a live look with San Jose this spring and summer.  If they aren't making an early trip to SoCal I might have to make a pilgrimage to SJ or another Cal League locale to make sure I see him.  

17.  Enrique Bradfield OF, Orioles(College):  FCL:  .556/.667/.667, 0 HR, 1 SB, 25.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA.  .302/.494/.340, 0 HR, 20 SB, 24.7 BB%, 11.7 K%, 77 PA.  A+:  .118/.286/.118, 0 HR, 4 SB, 19.0 BB%, 19.0 K%, 21 PA.  Slap and dash hitter with speed to burn from an elite college program.  Players with his tool and skill set all but went extinct in the analytics era.  Will the new rules bring them back?  Happy the Giants went in another direction.

18.  Brock Wilken 3B, Brewers(College):  ACL:  .333/.464/.571, 1 HR, 1 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 28 PA.  A+:  .289/.427/.438, 2 HR, 3 SB, 18.0 BB%, 21.3 K%, 150 PA.  AA:  .217/.280/.565, 2 HR, 0 SB, 8.0 BB%, 36.0 K%, 25 PA.  IMO, best pure power on the college side of the draft but somewhat limited defensively.  Solid start to pro career with aggressive placement in A+.  Also got a preview of AA to give him a head start to next season.  If he can maintain adequate contact, he's should soon be a middle-of-the-order bat for the BrewCrew.  

19.  Brayden Taylor 3B, Rays(College):  FCL:  .222/.417/.556, 0 HR, 2 SB, 25.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA.  A:  .244/.354/.512, 5 HR, 9 SB, 14.6 BB%, 32.3 K%, 96 PA.  Rated as one of the best pure hitters in the draft by many analysts.  That's a lot of K's for a college draftee in A ball.

20.  Arjun Nimmala SS, Blue Jays(HS):  FCL:  .200/.500/.320, 0 HR, 1 SB, 35.0 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA.  Lean wiry HS SS with excellent physical projection.  A raw talent who will require some patience to develop.  Prospects like him tend to be boom or bust, mostly bust.

21.  Chase Davis OF, Cardinals(College):  A:  .212/.366/.269, 0 HR, 3 SB, 19.1 BB%, 26 K%, 131 PA.  Numbers in A ball not impressive.  Don't trust college numbers from Arizona.

22.  Colt Emerson SS, Mariners(College):  ACL:  .536/.629/.786, 1 HR, 4 SB, 17.1 BB%, 17.1 K%, 35 PA.  A:  .302/.436/.444, 1 HR, 4 SB, 13.9 BB%, 17.1 K%, 79 PA.  This draft was deep for HS hitters in general and HS SS's in particular.  I did not scout Emerson predraft but looks like the Mariners got another good one here.

23.  Ralphy Velazquez C, Guardians(HS):  ACL:  .348/.393/.739, 2 HR, 1 SB, 10.7 BB%, 17.9 K%, 28 PA.  At least a grade 70 name.  Solid scouting reports but too small a sample to judge much from pro debut.

24.  Hursten Waldrep RHP, Braves(College):  A:  0-0, 3.00, 3 IP, 24.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9.  A+:  0-0, 0.75, 12 IP, 12.75 K/9, 3.75 BB/9.  AA:  20-1, 2.70, 10 IP, 9.90 K/9, 6.30 BB/9.  AAA:  0-0, 0.00, 4.1 IP, 10.38 K/9, 6.23 BB/9.  College power pitcher who was inconsistent as a junior causing his draft stock to drop.  College pitchers with good stuff and command can move very fast.  

25.  Dillon Head OF, Padres(HS):  ACL:  .294/.413/.471, 1 HR, 3 SB, 17.5 BB%, 14.3 K%, 63 PA.  A:  .241/.311/.333, 0 HR, 1 SB, 6.6 BB%, 16.4 K%, 61 PA.  I don't know anything about him.  Decent numbers in reasonbly aggressive pro debut.

26.  George Lombard Jr SS, Yankees(HS):  FCL:  .417/.588/.500, 0 HR, 3 SB, 29.4 BB%, 11.8 K%, 17 PA.  A:  .273/.415/.303, 0 HR, 1 SB, 19.5 BB%, 24.4 K%, 41 PA.  Big HS SS at 6' 3".  Don't know much about him except someone named George Lombard had a modest MLB career from 1998-2006.

27.  Aidan Miller 3B, Phillies(HS):  FCL:  .414/.528/.483, 0 HR, 0 SB, 16.7 BB%, 13.9 K%, 36 PA.  A:  .216/.341/.297, 0 HR, 4 SB, 13.6 BB%, 22.7 K%, 44 PA.  I scouted him predraft and really liked his bat.  Time will tell.

28.  Brice Matthews SS, Astros(College):  FCL:  .000/.167/.000, 16.7 BB%, 16.7 K%, 6 PA.  A:  .217/.373/.367, 4 HR, 16 SB, 16.0 BB%, 26.7 K%, 150 PA.  Intriguing power/speed combo but the hit tool is suspect.

Overall, this draft looks like it could be the strongest in a generation.  Most pro debuts did not disappoint.  Looks like the Giants got a good one in Bryce Eldridge mid-first round.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Add Coaches

 The Giants announced some coaching changes today including two which should bring widespread approval from the fanbase.  

Matt Williams, who had some great moments wearing a Giants uniform as a player will be the new third base coach.  He was a first round draft pick who struggled at first to gain a foothold in the major leagues but persevered, worked hard to improve his pitch recognition and became a feared power hitter with 30 or more HR's in 6 seasons with the Giants.  Many fans are convinced he would have hit at least 60 HR's in 1994 when he hit 43 despite the season being shortened to 112 games by a strike.  He was then involved in the famous/infamous trade that caused such an uproar with the fanbase new GM Brian Sabean felt compelled to address it, starting his speech with the immortal words, "I am not an idiot!"   Since retiring as a player, Williams has built up extensive experience coaching and managing in the major leagues as well as a stint managing in the KBO league in Korea.  Hmmmm...... Previous 3B coach Gary Hallberg remains with the team, sliding over to first base.  No word on what this means for Antoan Richardson's future.

Pat Burrell, who was a key addition to the Giants first championship team in the San Francisco era in 2010, is added as co-hitting coach.  Justin Viele remains as the other half of the new tandem and Pedro Guerrero remains as assistant hitting coach.

Manager Bob Melvin also brings his longtime bench coach, Ryan Christensen, with him replacing Kai Correa.  Again, no word on Kai's status with the organization.  

I would sum up these moves with two words:  Respect and gravitas.  There is a definite shift in tone with these hires to more of a traditional player-oriented coaching approach with an emphasis on personalities and resumes which will command the respect of the players.

The Giants also announced that assistant coaches Alyssa Nakken, Thaira Uematsu and J. P. Martinez will remain on the staff.

Scouting the 2024 Draft: P. J. Morlando

P. J. Morlando OF/1B, HS.  6'3", 200 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  

Morlando is Prospects Live's #1 prep prospect due to his elite bat.  In their words, Morlando has a "loud combination of high contact rates, robust power and mature plate discipline.  He's a big, raw-boned kid with room to fill out his large frame.  Projects as a corner OF due to average speed/arm but could end up at 1B as he fills out. Perfect Game calls him the "top hitter in the class."  Hitting stance is a bit like Wilmer Flores with a wide base and weight way back on his back leg and hips back-rotated helping him develop big torque and weight shift while not moving feet.  Won the HS HR derby during All-Star Weekend.  Hit one bomb 550 ft.  Teams that value up-the-middle speed and athleticism will value him less, but the bat does appear to be elite.

Hot Stove League Update: Opting In and Out

Today marked the offseason deadline for options to be exercises.  The Giants had 3 players with player options AKA opt outs:  Sean Manaea LHP, Ross Stripling RHP and Michael Conforto OF.  They had a team option on Alex Cobb RHP which seemed like a no-brainer until it was announced that Cobb would undergo hip surgery which is projected to keep him out for at least 6 months or at least the first month of next season.  Here is the breakdown with the results of these decisions:

Sean Manaea LHP- Player Option for $12.5 M.  Declined.  Manaea finished the season strong and was actually one of the better pitchers in the league in the second half of the season.  On top of that he had a 2-3 MPH velocity gain which he maintained all season making him an attractive target for bargain hunters in the free agent market.  Even at a bargain, though, he should land a contract well north of 1 yr/$12.5 M so no surprise he opted out.  Combined with Cobb's injury, as it stands now, the Giants would start the season with just one proven reliable SP, Logan Webb.  They simply can't do that and are looking at a need to add not only a frontline SP but at least one other above-average SP via free agency or trade.

Ross Stripling RHP- Player Option for $12.5 M.  Exercised.  I have to say Stripling is in my doghouse after he complained to the press about his roll when the Giants delayed his return from the IL, essentially accusing them of creating a phantom injury to manipulate the roster which can get a team in a whole lot of trouble with MLB.  At the same time he admitted he did not pitch well enough to opt out of the second year of his contract. So he'll try to figure out what went wrong last year and do better this year.  Perhaps Bob Melvin's more orthodox use of pitchers will be more to his liking?  Does that mean Melvin will let him get bombed for a few more games than Kapler did before losing faith in him?

Michael Conforto OF- Player Option for $18 M.  Exercised.  There were rumblings that Conforto might opt out but it was hard to imagine him finding a better deal on the open market after his second subpar season in 3 years with the other year being lost to injury.  On the other hand, he looked miserable as the season wound down.  My suspicion is he would have opted out anyway if Kapler was still the manager.  This move leaves the Giants with 4 underperforming, oft-injured OF's on the roster with little room for upgrading.  They may end up having to eat some $$$ to release or trade one or two to make room for a free agent upgrade and/or opportunity for younger OF's like Tyler Fitzgerald or Heliot Ramos.

Alex Cobb RHP- Team Option for $10 M with $2 M buyout.  With a net cost of $8 M it seems like a risk worth taking that Cobb will recover completely from his hip surgery in time to be a #2 SP for the last 5 months of the season.  It's still a good deal if he can do that for 4 months or 3 months, but it's also possible he never gets back to pre-injury form and it's another sunk cost. Is it just me or do the Giants seem to have more than their share of potential sunk-cost contracts?

I am not going to waste my time and yours grinding out payroll projections and how that impacts free agent signings.  If you are into that, you can find detailed articles on other sites like mccoveychronicles.com.  I will say the outcome of all these decisions is to make FZ's job upgrading the starting rotation and OF more difficult regardless of cost or payroll constraints.

Scouting the 2024 Draft: Travis Bazzana

We will do Hot Stove League updates as they unfold but trying to map out the offseason ahead of time gives me a headache so we'll zig here when others are zagging and start building our 2024 draft board.  We will post player profiles of top players from various online rankings and rank the as we go along.  

Travis Bazzana 2B, College.  6' 0", 195 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  

2022(Oregon State):  .306/.425/.478, 16 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 14 SB, 45 BB, 62 K, 302 PA.  

2023(Oregon State):  .374/.500/.622, 20 2B, 3 BB, 11 HR, 36 SB, 59 BB, 47 K, 306 PA. 

2023(Cape Cod League):  .375/.456/.581, 6 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 14 SB, 18 BB, 18 K, 158 PA.

Bazzana hails from Sydney, Australia.  He's played multiple sports including cricket but has been hitting baseballs off a T since he was 3 years old.  Exceptional athlete.  Solid, balanced hitting approach that uses all fields.  Strong plate discipline.  One scouting report said he has the athleticism top play SS but his arm is fringey there.  He also appears to have enough speed to play CF.   Again the arm would be fringy there.  College 2B don't usually go #1 overall but Bazzana's offensive package and potential versatility may be enough.  

Giants Depth Charts: Closer

Camilo Doval is the Giants undisputed Closer, and an elite one at that, but the depth falls off drastically after that.  

MLB:

Camilo Doval R:  6-6, 2.93, 67.2 IP, 11.57 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 39 Saves, 52.2% GB Rate.  Age- 26.  Arb Eligible 2025, 2 Options.  Doval can still get a wild hair up his nose and there were times he probably suffered from overuse.  No reason to not expect him to be the Giants primary Closer for the forseeable future, though.

Ryan Walker R:  5-3, 3.23, 61.1 IP, 11.45 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1 Save.  Age- 27.  3 options.  Walker was used in multiple roles including 13 "Openings".  Expect Bob Melvin to more clearly defines his role in 2024.  Probably as good a choice as any for an 8'th inning/backup closer role.

Tristan Beck R:  3-3, 3.92, 85 IP, 7.20 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 2 Saves.  Age- 27.  2 Options.  Another guy who Kapler used all over the place including, apparently, his doghouse.  Profiles more as a SP but had as many Save Ops as Starts in 2023.  Two sensational shutout extra-innings suggest he could be a pretty good Closer.

Jose Cruz R:  A+:  0-0, 1.45, 18.2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1 Save.  AA:  0-2, 6.66, 25.2 IP, 13.68 K/9, 10.87 BB/9, 4 Saves.  Age- 23.  2 Options.  Elite Stuff but obviously some things to work on.  Do the Giants have room on the 40-man roster to let him continue to develop?

Randy Rodriguez R:  AA:  2-1, 2.97, 30.1 IP, 11.87 K/9, 5.34 BB/9, 1 Save.  AAA:  0-1, 5.73, 37.2 IP, 9.80 K/9, 8.84 BB/9.  Age- 24. 1 Option.  Had a rough time in AAA after promotion.  PCL is a rough place to pitch.  Will the Giants keep him on the 40-man roster another year to see if he can break through?

AAA:  

Erik Miller L:  AA:  1-0, 0.87, 10.1 IP, 13.06 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 1 Save.  AAA:  2-1, 2.77, 52 IP, 12.63 K/9, 7.10 BB/9, 14 Saves.  Age- 25.  Rule 5 Eligible.  Big lefty acquired from the Phillies for Yunior Marte.  Fangraphs has him with a 3-pitch mix which could work in a SP role but he was the AAA River Cats Closer over the second half of the season with great success.  The walk rate is a concern but that may be more of function of the downsized automated K zone employed in AAA than true wildness.  Miller is potentially a prime target in the Rule 5 Draft and the Giants almost certainly must add him to the 40-man roster to keep him in the organization.  Do they have room?

Nick Avila R:  14-0, 3.00, 72 IP, 8.00 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3 Saves.  Age-26. Rule 5 Eligible.  Nick Avila was taken in last year's Rule 5 Draft by the White Sox but then returned to the Giants.  He had a successful season, though with a freakish W-L record, which will make him an inviting Rule 5 target again this year.  Again, do the Giants have room to protect him?

Melvin Adon:  2-6, 7.43, 40.0 IP, 11.25 K/9, 8.33 BB/9.  Age- 29.  Rule 5 Eligible.  The oft injured Adon has struggled to remain healthy long enough to harness his triple digit fastball.  Again, the walk rate my be due to the squeezed AAA K zone.

AA:

Evan Gates R:  4-6, 4.39, 55.1 IP, 11.71 K/9, 4.88 BB/9, 6 Saves.  Age- 25.  Rule 5 Eligible.  UDFA in 2021. Has steadily worked his way up the organizational ladder on the reliever/Closer track.  Rule 5 eligible.  Probably does not need to be protected.

Tyler Myrick R:  A+:  1-2, 1.04, 26 IP, 8.65 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 9 Saves.  AA:  2-0, 1.44, 25 IP, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 6 Saves.  Age- 25.  Rule 5 Eligible.  14'th round draft pick in 2021.  I saw him pitch once for San Jose.  Throws hard.  Reliever profile but has performed well in the role.  Probably not someone to protect in rule 5 draft but you hope he's not selected.

Hunter Dula R:  A+:  4-2, 3.14, 43 IP, 10.47 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, 8 Saves.  AA:  1-0, 6.55, 11 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.  Age- 24.  Rule 5 Eligible.  18'th round draft pick in 2021.  Struggled after promotion to AA in very small sample size.  Does not need to be protected.

A+:

None

A:  

Dylan Cumming R:  7-3, 2.93, 92 IP, 8.41 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 6 Saves.  Age- 24.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2026.  Age- 24.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2026.  UDFA who put up good numbers in a conservative placement.  Used as a swingman with 7 Starts and 6 Saves.

Tyler Vogel R:  6-7, 4.27, 65.1 IP, 12.26 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 5 Saves.  Age- 22.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2025.  12'th round draft pick in 2022.  OK number but extremely conservative placement.  

Adding a reliever who can be a back up Closer might be something FZ wants to add this offseason.