The Giants and their fans are breathing a huge sigh of relief after division rival Rockies trade Giants nemesis and destroyer, Nolan Arenado, to the Cardinals for......welp, does it really matter who the Rockies got in return? It's looking like Austin Gomber LHP and a package of 2'nd and 3'rd tier prospects. As we all know too well, Arenado was a one-man wrecking crew agains the Giants. The great news in this trade is they only have to face him 6 games per season now instead of 19. That ought to be worth at least 2-3 more wins right there!
The sad part of the deal is the Rockies fans who have every reason to be bitter at some almost incomprehensible mismanagement by their front office, seemingly starting with ownership. When Arenado signed a 7 yr/$234 M contract extension in Feb. 2019, the Rockies were coming off a pretty good season and management assured Arenado they had resources to keep a strong team around him. That all went south almost immediately. Arenado expressed his frustration as the lack of supporting moves and management allowed themselves to get into a public pissing contest with their top player and most expensive commodity.
And a tip of the cap to the Cardinals who have helped get two big Giants killers, Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado out of the NL West.
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MLBTR has put up a list of the 20 biggest contracts in MLB history, so let's take a look at how those have turned out so far:
1. Mookie Betts OF, 12 yrs/$365 M. July 2020. Too early to tell, but Dodgers have almost unlimited financial resources so probably good deal for them overall even if they have to eat the final few years.
2. Mike Trout OF, 10 yr/$360 M. March 2019. Generational talent but is the sheer size of the contract keeping the Angels from putting a competitive team around him? We'll see after Pujols' contract runs out.
3. Bryce Harper OF, 13 yr/$330 M. March 2019. Harper is a good player but is he THAT player? Value in this deal was always on the front end and it looks like the Phillies may be squandering it.
4. Giancarlo Stanton OF, 13 yr/$325 M. November 2014. Looking like a bad deal for both the Marlins and the team who took on his contract, the Yankees.
5. Gerrit Cole RHP, 9 yrs/#324 M. December 2019. Too early to tell, but he'll be 38 yo by the end of hte contract and watch out for the "sticky situation."
6. Manny Machado 3B, 10 yr/$300 M. Feb 2019. Return a bit disappointing so far, but can still put up some great years and Padres obviously willing to spend to put a great team around him as well as a top notch farm system for cheap talent.
7. Alex Rodriguez SS/3B, 10 yr/$275 M. Dec. 2007. This is the Yankees contract which was long labelled an "albatross" although that is probably not a fair characterization.
8. Alex Rodriguez SS/3B, 10 yr/$252 M. Dec 2000. Too much money in one player for a mid-market team to handle. Dumped the contract to the Yankees.
9. Miguel Cabrera 1B/DH, 8 yr/$248 M. March 2014. Reward for past performance. A disaster for the Tigers in real time.
10. Stephen Strasburg RHP, 7 yr/$245 M. Dec 2019. Not looking good already.
10. Anthony Rendon 3B, 7 yr/$245 M. Dec 2019. Good player but contract unlikely to age well.
12. Albert Pujols 1B/DH, 10 yr/240 M. Dec 2011. Disastrous contract for the Angels and Cardinals proved you can successfully re-allocate money. Losing Pujols, as great as he was, was not the end of the world.
13. Robinson Cano 2B, 10 yr/$240 M. Dec. 2013. Decent player for Mariners early in contract but predictably not the "game changer" you would want from a contract like this. Even more stupifying is the Mets taking the contract off the Mariner's hands.
14. Nolan Arenado 3B, 7 yr/ $234 M. Feb 2019. Unhappy outcome for Rockies and their fans. Arenado not a happy camper for last 2 years despite the shipload of money. Maybe the Cardinals can make it work?
15. Joey Votto 1B, 10 yr/ $225 M. April 2012. Contract OK on front end but disastrous on back end.
16. David Price LHP, 7 yr/$217 M. Dec 2015. A couple of good seasons with the Red Sox and he helped them win a WS in 2018, but overall not the performance you are looking for from this level of investment.
17. Clayton Kershaw LHP, 7 yr/$215 M. Jan 2014. Not quite the pitcher he once was and generally a disappointment in the postseason, but I don't hear Dodger fans complaining and he was a big part in their run to the ring in 2020.
18. Prince Fielder, 1B/DH, 9 yr/$214 M. Jan 2012. Fielder is long out of baseball and the contract still has one more year to go.
19. Max Scherzer RHP, 7 yr/$2010 M. Jan 2015. Stellar performer throughout the contract which only has 2 more years to go.
20. Zack Greinke RHP, 6 yr/$206.5 M. Dec 2015. Greinke not the pitcher he once was but has mostly held up his end of the bargain in performance. D'Backs bit off more than they could chew.
A mixed bag but enough disasters to make a case that teams should never commit to this type of contract. The best you can expect is market value and that is a tall order when you are paying this much. Many ways it may not work out even with market rate performance.
Glad to see Nolan Arenado out of NL west! The Front Office has circled 2022 offseason due to most of the Giants big contracts expiring and a free agent class filled with stars. I think FZ should try to sign a star player next year if that player will be productive long term and fills a position need but your list of 20 biggest contracts gives a good case not to do it. That's why I don't see FZ and the Giants giving out a bunch of big contracts next off-season despite payroll flexibility
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame they don't somehow adjust these for inflation or market prices. I'd like to see how Barrys Bonds and Zito to SF fit into the top 20.
ReplyDelete