Hot Stove Update: Giants Say Bye To Nemesis

The Giants and their fans are breathing a huge sigh of relief after division rival Rockies trade Giants nemesis and destroyer, Nolan Arenado, to the Cardinals for......welp, does it really matter who the Rockies got in return?  It's looking like Austin Gomber LHP and a package of 2'nd and 3'rd tier prospects. As we all know too well, Arenado was a one-man wrecking crew agains the Giants.  The great news in this trade is they only have to face him 6 games per season now instead of 19.  That ought to be worth at least 2-3 more wins right there!  

The sad part of the deal is the Rockies fans who have every reason to be bitter at some almost incomprehensible mismanagement by their front office, seemingly starting with ownership.  When Arenado signed a 7 yr/$234 M contract extension in Feb. 2019, the Rockies were coming off a pretty good season and management assured Arenado they had resources to keep a strong team around him.  That all went south almost immediately.  Arenado expressed his frustration as the lack of supporting moves and management allowed themselves to get into a public pissing contest with their top player and most expensive commodity.  

And a tip of the cap to the Cardinals who have helped get two big Giants killers, Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado out of the NL West.

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MLBTR has put up a list of the 20 biggest contracts in MLB history, so let's take a look at how those have turned out so far:

1.  Mookie Betts OF, 12 yrs/$365 M. July 2020.  Too early to tell, but Dodgers have almost unlimited financial resources so probably good deal for them overall even if they have to eat the final few years.

2. Mike Trout OF, 10 yr/$360 M.  March 2019.  Generational talent but is the sheer size of the contract keeping the Angels from putting a competitive team around him?  We'll see after Pujols' contract runs out.

3.  Bryce Harper OF, 13 yr/$330 M.  March 2019. Harper is a good player but is he THAT player?  Value in this deal was always on the front end and it looks like the Phillies may be squandering it.

4. Giancarlo Stanton OF, 13 yr/$325 M.  November 2014.  Looking like a bad deal for both the Marlins and the team who took on his contract, the Yankees.

5. Gerrit Cole RHP, 9 yrs/#324 M.  December 2019.  Too early to tell, but he'll be 38 yo by the end of hte contract and watch out for the "sticky situation."

6.  Manny Machado 3B, 10 yr/$300 M.  Feb 2019.  Return a bit disappointing so far, but can still put up some great years and Padres obviously willing to spend to put a great team around him as well as a top notch farm system for cheap talent.

7.  Alex Rodriguez SS/3B, 10 yr/$275 M. Dec. 2007.  This is the Yankees contract which was long labelled an "albatross" although that is probably not a fair characterization.

8.  Alex Rodriguez SS/3B, 10 yr/$252 M.  Dec 2000.  Too much money in one player for a mid-market team to handle.  Dumped the contract to the Yankees.

9.  Miguel Cabrera 1B/DH, 8 yr/$248 M.  March 2014.  Reward for past performance.  A disaster for the Tigers in real time.

10.  Stephen Strasburg RHP, 7 yr/$245 M.  Dec 2019.  Not looking good already.

10.  Anthony Rendon 3B, 7 yr/$245 M.  Dec 2019.  Good player but contract unlikely to age well.

12.  Albert Pujols 1B/DH, 10 yr/240 M.  Dec 2011.  Disastrous contract for the Angels and Cardinals proved you can successfully re-allocate money.  Losing Pujols, as great as he was, was not the end of the world.  

13.  Robinson Cano 2B, 10 yr/$240 M.  Dec. 2013.  Decent player for Mariners early in contract but predictably not the "game changer" you would want from a contract like this.  Even more stupifying is the Mets taking the contract off the Mariner's hands.

14.  Nolan Arenado 3B, 7 yr/ $234 M. Feb 2019. Unhappy outcome for Rockies and their fans.  Arenado not a happy camper for last 2 years despite the shipload of money.  Maybe the Cardinals can make it work?

15.  Joey Votto 1B, 10 yr/ $225 M.  April 2012.  Contract OK on front end but disastrous on back end.

16.  David Price LHP, 7 yr/$217 M.  Dec 2015.  A couple of good seasons with the Red Sox and he helped them win a WS in 2018, but overall not the performance you are looking for from this level of investment.

17.  Clayton Kershaw LHP, 7 yr/$215 M.  Jan 2014. Not quite the pitcher he once was and generally a disappointment in the postseason, but I don't hear Dodger fans complaining and he was a big part in their run to the ring in 2020.

18.  Prince Fielder, 1B/DH, 9 yr/$214 M.  Jan 2012.  Fielder is long out of baseball and the contract still has one more year to go.

19.  Max Scherzer RHP, 7 yr/$2010 M.  Jan 2015.  Stellar performer throughout the contract which only has 2 more years to go.

20.  Zack Greinke RHP, 6 yr/$206.5 M.  Dec 2015.  Greinke not the pitcher he once was but has mostly held up his end of the bargain in performance.  D'Backs bit off more than they could chew.  

A mixed bag but enough disasters to make a case that teams should never commit to this type of contract.  The best you can expect is market value and that is a tall order when you are paying this much.  Many ways it may not work out even with market rate performance.

Hot Stove Update: FZ Gets His Man

When FZ rolled out his blueprint for the Hot Stove season, he might as well have just announced, "we're going after Tommy La Stella!  Lefty bat, multiple infield positions but mainly 3B, FZ approved secondary stats, there was alway just one guy who perfectly fit the description.  Tommy La Stella!  I figured FZ was not the only GM looking for a player like that.  La Stella was going to have multiple offers and price himself out of FZ's market, but it looks like FZ wanted him badly enough to go for the overpay.  It took awhile to get the details but it looks like 3 yr/$19 M in guaranteed money.

La Stella really is a very good and versatile hitter.   He spent the first years of his career building a reputation as a bench bat and PH with the Cubs.  Then he had a breakout season in 2019 with the Angels as a starter, although his season was truncated by injury.  He hit for less power in 2020 with the A's but put up even better secondary stats.  How does a 11.8 BB% coupled with a 5.3% K% strike you(9.6 BB%, 10.6 K% career)?  

La Stella will most likely split platoon time between 3B and 2B which should give him, Longo and Solano approximately equal PA's.  I suppose that means Mauricio Dubon will be RH hitting backup SS, but the lack of additional SS options puts a lot of pressure on Brandon Crawford to stay healthy.

Love the signing.  While it may be a modest overpay, La Stella easily fits into the Giants budget for all 3 seasons he is signed for.  Gotta love the bat!

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There are rumors of the Giants interest in LH hitting OF's Jackie Bradley Jr. or Joc Pederson.  Bradley is a better fit defensively as a CF but Pederson has the better bat but a wide margin.  Either signing would seem to put Darren Ruf and Austin Slater on the roster bubble assuming a 26 man roster with 13 pitchers and 13 position players, unless they went with just 12 pitchers, which seems unlikely in the age of openers and 5 inning starts.

Personally, I think FZ should still prioritize pitching but the pitching market is still deep and he may be waiting for the market to come to him.  He also may have more specific hitting targets and feel the need to get them signed first. 

Thoughts On The Chase To Beat The Babe

The sad news of the death of Hank Aaron brings back one of my earliest baseball memories and the endlessly fascinating and debatable chase between two baseball greats to break Babe Ruth's legendary career home run record of 714.  Living in Northern California and listening to Russ Hodges and Lon Simmons count down Willie Mays' home run milestones made be a passionate Mays fan and feel like Aaron was a rival to be feared and a bit envious of.  I have to confess I have spent most of my life thinking at the very least Mays should been first to pass The Babe if not the guy who ended up with the all-time record.  

In memory and respect for everything Hank Aaron accomplished in his incredible career, I present my argument for Mays.  It's really the same argument hundreds or even thousands of others have made but it's worth reviewing it again here.  

Mays was 3 years older than Aaron and broke into MLB 3 years earlier, so was always 3 years ahead of Aaron in age. They both broke in at age 20 and both retired after their age 42 seasons.  Beyond that, there were two major differences in their career arcs:  1.  Mays had to miss most of his second and all of his third MLB seasons serving in the Army while Aaron did not have to serve at all.  2. Aaron went on a remarkable tear after his age 35 season while Mays' numbers dropped off dramatically after passing that age milestone.  The other major comparative factor was in their respective home ballparks but that impact is much more difficult to quantify.

As we all know, Mays broke into MLB at age 20 in 1951.  He hit 20 HR's in 121 games and 524 PA's. He reported for army duty after 34 games of the 1952 season after hitting 4 more HR's.  The knowledge of his impending induction had to weigh on his mind.  After two years of army service and not playing at all, Mays rolled out of bed in 1954 with a stupendous season in which he hit .345 with 41 HR's.  I figure a conservative estimate of Mays lost HR's during that time is 60 and possibly as many as 75-80.  60 additional HR's would put him at 720, 6 more than The Babe.  Since Mays retired after the 1973 season and Aaron hit #715 in 1974, Mays would have passed The Babe first with just those two lost years added back.

By all accounts I've read, Mays took excellent care of his body.  He was neither a smoker nor drinker and didn't have a reputation for burning the candle at both ends.  Still, Aaron's body clearly held up better late in his career.  While that may not have been due to anything he did or did not do, he still deserves that credit.  Mays age 35 season was 1966 in which he hit 38 HR's.  After that the dropoff was dramatic.  He hit 118 HR's over his last 7 seasons.  Aaron's age 35 season was 1969.  He then went on an incredible 4-year tear with 38, 47, 34 and 40 HR's and ended up hitting 201 over his final 7 seasons.  Simply amazing!

Park factors are more difficult to quantify but I believe almost everyone believes Aaron benefitted from playing his home games in Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium which was a bandbox if there ever was one, while Mays production was harmed by playing in Candlestick Park which often had a howling wind blowing out to right field which made it almost impossible for a RH batter to hit one out to LF late in day games or in night games.  Again, hard to quantify, but I have strong recollections of hearing Russ and Lon describe long drives to left field by Mays that got blown out to left-center and get easily caught by the centerfielder.  

I should add that Aaron likely had to deal with more virulent and outright racism with personal threats than Mays due to playing his home games in the deep South.  Again, very hard to quantify the effect, if any that had on his numbers, but still worth noting.

Put that all together and I firmly believe that given a level playing field Mays would have been the first to pass The Babe and he would have ended up with a HR total very close to Aaron.

Based on what I've read, Willie Mays does not lose sleep over it which leads me to believe I should not either.  They were both top 5 players of all time and their greatness transcended numbers.  I am blessed to witness their greatness while a kid learning to love the game, especially with Mays playing for the team I came to root for thanks to where my parents happened to live at the time.

Hank Aaron RIP.   

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Alex Wood and Top 25 International Prospect

 Before we get started with the post, let me just say I have never been able to keep Alex and Travis Wood straight in my mind.  Just too many similarities.  So if you see me slip a Travis in here and there, just transpose it in your mind to Alex and we're good.

The Giants made a move yesterday which a lot of folks had been predicting all Hot Stove season.  Seems FZ just can't quit Alex Wood and maybe vice-versa?  Wood is a LHP with a funky delivery who started out in the Braves Organization.  He was a second round draft pick out of Univ. of GA in 2012.  He made his MLB debut in 2013.  FZ stole Wood from the Braves in a 3-team/13 player blockbuster.  The Braves apparently badly wanted Hector Olivera 3B who was ultimately a bust.  Wood was also involved in another blockbuster swap from the Dodgers to the Reds along with Matt Kemp OF and Yasiel Puig OF with the Dodgers gaining prospects Jeter Downs SS and Josiah Gray RHP.  Wood struggled with the Reds in 2019 and re-signed with the Dodger in 2020.  He saw very little action in 2020 due to shoulder inflammation but looked terrific in 2 innings of shutout ball in the deciding game of the World Series.  

The key for Wood and the Giants is health.  If he stays healthy, he is very likely to put up strong numbers and be at least a #3 SP.  The deal is 1 yr/$3 M with incentives.  The incentives are interesting in that they reward appearances in which he records at least 10 outs or 3.1 IP.  He is versatile and can work in the rotation or out of the bullpen.  This is another low risk/high reward signing with the obvious aim of rebuilding Alex Wood's market value, which several pitchers have done in 1 season stints with the Giants.

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Yesterday was the beginning of the international signing period which was pushed back from July 2, 2020 due to COVID-19.  The Giants were active, signing one million dollar bonus baby in Diego Velasquez SS out of Venezuela.  Velasquez was the #22 international prospect per MLB Pipeleline.  He is whip-thin with wiry strength and athletic looking actions.  The frame looks projectable.  He switch-hits.  He trains with former MLB'er Ronny Cedeno.

The Giants signed a total of 34 international prospects yesterday which should fill up their 2 DSL rosters in 2021.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Backup Catcher; Trade Lightning Rod

 So, let's do a little catching up with what's going on around the Hot Stove as Winter settles in.  The Giants signed their apparent backup catcher for next year when they inked Curt Casali to a major league deal worth $1.5 M.  The Reds had previously non-tendered him for arbitration with a MLBTR projected arbitration award of $1.8-2.4 M.  

Curt Casali C.  DOB:  11/9/1988.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 220 lbs.

2018(Reds):  .293/.355/.450, 4 HR, 156 PA.

2019(Reds):  .251/.331/.411, 8 HR, 236 PA.

2020(Reds):  .224/.366/.500, 6 HR, 93 PA.

Casali fits the FZ profile of a a 3-true outcomes guy, HR power with high K's and high BB's.  He'll back up Buster Posey and relegate Chadwick Tromp to AAA insurance while Joey Bart gets more salt in AA or AAA.  Only surprise for me is I predicted FZ would get himself a lefthanded hitter for backup C.  

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The Giants traded Sam Lightning...er.....Coonrod RHP to the Phillies for pitching prospect Carson Ragsdale RHP.  I don't think Giants fans need any reminders of who or what Sam Coonrod is or why this comes as no surprise.  So let's focus on who the Giants got in return.  Ragsdale is a 6'8" pitching prospect selected in round 4 of the 2020 draft by the Phillies out of University of South Florida.  He has tremendous physical tools but is still raw due to is college career being interrupted by Tommy John Surgery and the COVID pandemic.  Here are his cumulative college stats:

2-1, 3.75, 50.1 IP, 28 BB, 77 K.  

At 225 lbs, Ragsdale is a dominating physical presence on the mound.  His over-the-top delivery gives him a steep downhill plane on his pitches.  His FB goes in the low-mid 90's but has significant room for more.  His sharp downward breaking curveball is a potential plus pitch and his changeup needs development.

Coonrod's velocity gives him a high ceiling but Ragsdale is younger and has more time to reach a high ceiling himself.  FZ essentially buys another 2020 draft pick without giving up a significant prospect or essential member of the MLB roster.  He also moves on from a potential ongoing source distraction in the clubhouse.  Nice trade!

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The Giants also signed Jay Jackson RHP to a minor league contract.  Jackson is a hard throwing righty reliever who has pitched in MLB for the Padres and Brewers.  He has pitched with success in 4 seasons in Japan with a 2.16 ERA.  He will compete for a bullpen role in Spring Training.

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Tomoyuki Sugano inked a 4 year/$40 M free agent contract with the Giants.....the Yomiuri Giants, that is.  The deal reportedly includes 3 opt-outs and was already agreed to as a fallback before he posted to bidding from US teams.  Seems none of them wanted to touch that. He sure seemed like a nice fit for the Giants, though.

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I don't have much to add to the discussion re. the blockbuster trade of Francisco Lindor SS and Carlos Carrasco RHP to the Mets for Ahmed Rosario SS, Andres Gimenez SS, Josh Wolf RHP and Isaiah Greene OF.   Lindor is entering his final year before free agency while Carrasco has 2 years on a contract.  Trading expensive players for top prospects used to be a nice way for smaller market teams to rebuild.  What's distressing is the diminishing returns these types of trades are bringing back.  Not that Rosario and Gimenez are bad players or Wolf and Greene non-prospects but those 4 are never going to come close to what Lindor is right now. As for the Mets, new owner Steve Cohen signals he is going to use his overwhelming financial muscle in ways the financially crippled Wilpons were not able or willing to do.