Hot Stove Update: Marlins Try to Compete Now While Rebuilding

Hey team!  Time to check in on the ol' Hot Stove which has cooled down considerably after literally $Billions were spent at the Winter Meetings and subsequent two weeks.  We'll start off by checking in  on the Marlins.  Yes, the Marlins!  And I must say if the Marlins are creating more Hot Stove fuel than your team, you are in a sorry state of fandom!  Said Marlins signed OF Corey Dickerson to a 2 year/$17.5 M contract.  Dickerson is a ferocious lefty hitter when healthy with passable D in LF.  He divided his time between the Pirates and Phillies last year while missing significant time with several relatively minor injuries.  The injuries are probably what held his price down for the Marlins.

Now, here's what MLBTR had to say about what the Marlins are up to this winter(Farhan, are you reading this?):  "Targeting the likes of Aguilar, Villar, Cervelli and Dickerson on short-term contracts does no harm to the Marlins long-term financial outlook and figures to  only help the team remain competitive in 2020.  At the very least, acquisitions like this represent potential trade chips for a club that might still be a couple of years away; still, these moves shouldn't simply be dismissed as such."  I'll let readers apply or not apply this to the Giants situation as they wish.

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The Blue Jays signed RHP Shun Yamaguchi to a 2 year/$6.35 M deal.  Yamaguchi is on the older side at age 32 but pitched 170 innings for the Yomiuri Giants last year with a 2.91 ERA and a 10.00/3.2 K9/BB/9.  Now, the Giants have not had much success with Asian players, but I kind of thought Farhan was more into them than Sabes.  Not sure why I thought that, but Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu might have something to do with it.

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The Reds signed OF Shogo Akiyama to a 3 year contract possibly worth more than $20 M.  The 32 year old OF has hit 20+ HR's in Japan over the past 3 seasons and stolen more than 15 bags in each of the past 5 seasons.  The Reds add him to a crowded OF mix already consisting of Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino and more.

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Lastly, the Twins signed two pitchers:  LHP Rich Hill and RHP Homer Bailey.  The oft injured Hill is 40 years old and likely won't be available until midseason at the earliest.  He is guaranteed $3 M with $9.5 M in available incentives which he can reach in 15 starts and/or 75 IP.  Bailey gets a guarantee of $7 M also with incentives that do not kick in until he gets up to 180 IP, which is a lot for a guy who last cleared that mark in 2013.  His ERA for 2019 was well over 4, but he ground out 13 QS, an underrated stat IMO, which was tied with Jeff Samardzija and Rick Porcello for #51 in MLB.

The Twins are in win now mode, or at least they should be.  They probably should have been more agressive for starting pitching early in the free agent market. On the other hand, these are the types of deals that could help the Giants compete now and give them trade chips for the future, although I am still holding out hope for Alex Wood and even more so, Taijuan Walker!

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #12 Luis Toribio

Luis Toribio 3B.  DOB:  9/28/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 165 lbs.

2018 R(DSL):  .270/.423/.479, 13 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 4 SB, 18.6 BB%, 22.6 K%, 274 PA.
2019 R(AZL):  .297/.436/.459, 15 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 4 SB, 19.2 BB%, 23.1 K%, 234 PA.
2019 Short Season:  .273/.385/.364, 2B, 15.4 BB%, 38.5 K%, 13 PA.

Luis Toribio is another player whose batting lines stood out immediately in the DSL with a combination of extremely high walk rate and power.  After promotion to the AZL, the power was more of the gap variety, but the walk rate held up.  A late season promotion to Salem-Keizer yielded an extremely small sample, but even there, you could already see the walks.

He's a lot bigger than 165 lbs. on video(Fangraphs has him up to 210 lbs- he looks more like about 190+ on available video).  The swing looks a bit on the long side, but he makes a loud noise on contact.  The movements at 3B look quick and fluid on video clips of infield practice.  MLB Pipeline says he has soft hands and a strong arm.  He should be ready for The Augusta Experience to start 2020 and we'll be following with interest.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Dylan Crews

Dylan Crews OF, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs(Fangraphs- PG has him at 195 lbs.)

If you squint really hard, you can see a little bit of Mike Trout in Dylan Crews.  Before you scoff, remember Trout was taken at #21 in his draft.  Crews is of average size, but looks taller and bigger in video clips.  He's got a smooth, powerful swing and makes loud contact with a measured exit velocity of 100 MPH.  He's got fair speed with a 6.63 60 and a nice throwing arm measuring 92 MPH on OF throws.  He has come catching experience but all the scouting reports have him as a future OF.  His power projects to all fields, not just pull side.  The R-CF gap seems to be his favorite power zone.

Fangraphs has Crews ranked at #19.  MLB Pipeline has him all the way down at #44.  He's committed to LSU.  If he falls into the lower 3'rd of he first round or later, he would probably benefit from the college experience a la Alex Bregman, which might be a better comp for him than Mike Trout, which isn't taking him down much of a notch. Right now, I'd slot him at around #17 after Austin Hendrick.

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It's a lot of work to update the draft board with each scouting profile.  From here on, I will only update if the player slots into the top 15 picks.  Since the Giants have 5 picks in the top 100 this cycle, I will try to profile as many as I can up to 100 then post a final Draft Board in June.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #11 Luis Matos

Luis Matos OF.  DOB:  1/28/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 160 lbs.

R(DSL):  .362/.430/.570, 24 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 20 SB, 7.0 BB%, 11.1 K%, 270 PA.
R(AZL):  .438/.550/.500, 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 20 PA.

Out of the "Big 3" 2018 Giants J2 signings, Luis Matos was generally ranked #3 and he got left behind to make his pro debut in the DSL rather than the AZL.  The DSL proved to be not much of a challenge as his stat line makes amply clear.  The Giants gave him a late-late season promotion to the AZL where he continued to destroy, but in a very small sample size.  His season was ultimately cut short by an OF collision from which he was able to walk off the field under his own power.

Matos is small, but wiry strong and generates big bat speed with body rotation per The Fangraphs Boys.  Also per Fangraphs he shows solid plate discipline ending PA's with hard swings at drivable pitches.  He's got speed to play CF and steal bases.  Per MLB Pipeline, he has a strong baseball IQ.  His cousins are the Basabe's who are scattered around the minor leagues at various levels.  Will the Giants give him The Augusta Experience out of the gate with such a short stay in the AZL or will they keep him in extended spring training before deciding where to place him?  I hope he does not ever pass Marco Luciano as the best of the "Big 3" as that would likely mean Luciano regressed, but I do think he has a great chance to end up the better player between him and Pomares.  The Fangraphs Boys are higher on him than MLB Pipeline with a #5 ranking compared to #26 respectively.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales 2B, College(New Mexico St).  B-R, T-R.  5/10", 190 lbs.

2019(College):  .432/.532/.773, 19 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 7 SB, 45 BB, 30 K, 220 AB.
2019(Cape Cod League):  .351, 14 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 154 AB.

Nick Gonzales is not going go blow anyone away with his toolset, except maybe the hit tool.  He was a walk-on at NMSU who quickly made a name for himself with an off-the-charts work ethic, earning a scholarship for his sophomore season after slashing .347/.425/.596 his freshman campaign.  Still, NMSU has a hitter-friendly ballpark in a hitter-friendly, non-elite conference(WAC).  We've seen strong numbers from there before.  What put Gonzales on draft rankings is his performance in the Cape Cod League where he won a MVP while putting up one of the more impressive lines you'll see from there.  Now he's drawing comps to Keston Hiura and hovering around the #10 level on draft boards.

I found multiple articles full of stories about Nick Gonzales work ethic like picking the coach's brain at lunchtime on hitting tips and baseball strategy and setting up his own lights to take batting practice alone when the rest of the team was at the movies.  He does not fit the classic first round draft pick mold but with the recent success of picks like Hiura and Nick Madrigal, he could be looking at a nice draft bonus next June if he continues to put up video game numbers at the plate.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M).
6.  Garrett Crochet LHP, College(Tennessee).
7.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.
8.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
9.  Patrick Bailey C, College(NC State).
10.  Nick Gonzales 2B, College(New Mexico St).
11. Robert Hassell OF, HS.
12.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
13.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
14.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
15. Mick Abel RHP, HS.
16.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
17.  Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).
18.  Ed Howard SS, HS.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #10 Jairo Pomares

Jairo Pomares OF.  DOB:  8/4/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 185 lbs.

R(AZL):  .368/.401/.542, 10 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 5 SB, 6.0 BB%, 15.6 K%, 167 PA.
Short Season:  .207/.258/.259, 3 3B, 1.6 BB%, 27.4 K%, 62 PA.

Jairo Pomares was #2 of the big 3 international prospects the Giants landed in the 2017 cycle.  The order could change in the future, but we'll keep not that way for now, as it correlates with level and experience too.  Pomares is a year older that the other two and the only lefty hitter.  Pomares does not have any outstanding tool, except possibly hit, but it could be very good as his AZL numbers suggest.   Here's what the Fangraphs boys had to say about it:  "Pomares only makes impact contact to his pull side, but he does have the ability to slash balls the other way.  He punishes pitchers who try to double up on breaking balls against him, and he has several other hitterish traits."  MLB Pipelines:  "Pomares has a tremendous approach for a teenager.  He has a quick left-handed stroke, understands how to recognize pitches and manage the strike zone, and doesn't try to do too much."  Although his power tool grades out as average, Fangraphs again reports his "exit velo data....was already above big league average."  He played mostly RF and no CF, in his pro debut, but has enough speed that the Fangraphs boys think he could play a passable CF.  His problem with CF in the Giants system is they have several other prospects who seem to be ahead of him on that depth chart.  He appears to be in the mix for the Augusta Experience next season along with Alexander Canario, Luis Matos and Grant McCray.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey C.  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 192 lbs.

2018:  .321/.419/.604, 8 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 32 K, 187 AB.
2019:  .288/.390/.513, 17 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 41 BB, 47 K, 236 AB.

Switch-hitting college catcher who won ACC Freshman of the Year honors in 2018.  Proven power from both sides of the plate.  Just my opinion, but the ability to hit left-handed is incredibly valuable at the catcher position as it makes a perfect strong side platoon with a right-handed hitting "backup."  Switch hitting is even more valuable because you don't have to worry about matchups later in the game.  Beyond those offensive attributes, Bailey's may actually be stronger defensively with quickness and framing skills behind the plate to complement a plus arm.

Despite already having Joey Bart in the Giants organization, I think Bailey would make a terrific pick at #13(although I am kind of hoping for a pitcher).  Positions can be changed, trades can be made, injuries can happen. You want value out of your first round pick and the best player available is always your best bet.  Bailey may not be the toolsiest guy at #13, but his switch-hitting bat at a premium position give him solid future value.  Fangraphs currently has him at #18, MLB Pipeline at #21. Again, college players tend to rise late in the draft cycle.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, Collge(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M).
6.  Garrett Crochet LHP, College(Tennessee).
7.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.
8.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
9.  Patrick Bailey C, College(NC State).
10.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
11.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
12.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
13.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
14.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
15.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
15.  Cade Cavalli RHP,  College(Oklahoma).
16.  Ed Howard SS, HS.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #9 Alexander Canario

Alexander Canario OF.  DOB:  5/7/2000.  6'1", 165 lbs.

2017 R(DSL):  .294/.391/.464, 17 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 18 SB, 12.0 BB$, 14.6 K%, 274 PA.

2018 R(AZL):  .250/.357/403, 5 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 13.0 BB%, 24.5 K%, 208 PA.

2019: R(AZL):  .395/.435/.1.000, 3 2B, 3B, 7 HR, SB, 4.3 BB%, 19.6 K%, 46 PA.

2019:  Short Season:  .301/.365/.539, 17 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 8.2 BB%, 32.4 K%, 219 PA.

Alexander Canario first caught my eye in the boxscores of the DSL in 2017 at age 17 with a nice looking mix of power, plate discipline and speed.  The numbers took a dip in 2018 after a promotion to the AZL, but the transition from the DSL to the AZL is huge and he still showed the big 3 attributes in his batting line.  Eyewitness scouting reports raved about his bat speed.  The Giants inexplicably sent him back to Arizona to start 2019(maybe the new regime just didn't have time to fully analyze him?  Maybe there was something specific they wanted him to work on?).  He crushed the AZL the second time through and was quickly promoted to Salem-Keizer, another hitter-friendly environment but facing significantly older, more experienced competition.  He again put up impressive numbers, although the K rate ballooned.  

On video, Canario is a well proportioned, athletic looking kid.  I'm not great at analyzing swings.  I think I can see the crazy bat head speed, but he swing looks quite long.  I did see one swing where he impressively drove a low-away breaking ball to RF.  As he gets older, I expect him to become more of a power hitter and lose the base-stealing speed, something that may already be happening.  Time to challenge him with the Augusta Experience.  If there are problems with the swing, they will be exposed there.  If he keeps his head above water, it could springboard him into a much higher rated prospect status.

Thoughts on Coaching and Player Development

One major stamp Farhan Zaidi put on the Giants organization is a commitment to coaching and player development, not only in the minor leagues, but also at the major league level.  To accomplish this goal, he hired an army of young, highly motivated coaches schooled in data analysis, eager to apply it to hands-on coaching.  Baseball has a longstanding tension between hands-on coaching philosophy and a more laissez-faire approach.  Harry "The Hat" Walker and Walt Hriniak are two names which immediately come to mind who had a strong philosophy of hitting and tried to mold every hitter that came into their sphere of influence.  They had spectacular success stories, but not every hitter thrived with their approach.  Although there are instances of coaching success during the Brian Sabean/Bruce Bochy era, I would say the Giants have been more laissez-faire under their leadership.

Maybe it's different this time.  Coaches like Walker and Hriniak had their pet theories, but who knows how much data they had to back it up?  Their experiences and successes as well as their failures were mostly anecdotal and testimonial.  Maybe with access to mountains of data allows the new breed to make changes with an objective expectation of success or improvement.  Admittedly anecdotal experience from the Cincinnati Reds last season would suggest that it's still dependent on the individual player rather than an approach that works across the board.

The reason why this is relevant to the Giants is one of Farhan's new young coaches is hitting coach Donnie Ecker.  Ecker is credited with helping transform Reds OF Aristides Aquino into a hitting terror with changes to his swing.  Aquino definitely had a terrific MLB debut and set the league on fire after his promotion in August of last season.  Was that success due to the changes he worked out with Ecker or was it small sample size(SSS) noise?  His slash line kind of dropped off the table in September suggesting the jury is still out on that one.

Then there is the experience of Nick Senzel, a highly touted prospect and rookie for the Reds.  Again, the data is a bit dirty due to a series of injuries to Senzel, but in a couple of articles, Senzel sounds like he's not sad to see Donnie Ecker and Batting Coach Turner Ward move on from the Reds organization.  Senzel was batting a season high .285 on August 2 when he started to incorporate adjustments in his swing advocated by Ward and Ecker.  He slashed just .188/.242/.313 over his final 34 games before his season ended with labrum surgery.  Again, was that cratering of his numbers due to the changes in his batting stance or was is simply a reflection of SSS or a rookie hitting his wall as so many do?  From an MLB article 11/5/2019:  "....Senzel overhauled his hitting approach even though he was producing.  He switched to an open stance, stood taller and added a leg kick as he started his swing.  It helped him see the ball better, but it hurt his numbers in a big way."  In the same article, Senzel himself if quoted:  "I tried to make the adjustment in August.  You look at it stats-wise, it doesn't reflect.  I feel like I contributed to the club.  It's one of those things on paper.  It was a learning experience.  I can't wait to rehab, to get back out there and ready to go."

From another MLB article dated 12/6/2019:  "Offensively, Senzel plans to return to his old approach."  From Senzel himself:  "I'm going back to what I do.  I knew going into that that there was going to be failures.  It wasn't just I was going to change something at the big league level and that my numbers were going to stay the same.  It's obviously frustrating when you're going through it.  I was just trying something out and it didn't work, so I"ll got back to what I've been doing since I was 5 years old.  I don't have any regrets, it is what it is, and we move on."

Ouch!  Senzel may not have any regrets, but it sure sounds like he has an ax to grind with Ward and Ecker because he doesn't stop talking about it.  It is still possible in the long run Ward and Ecker were right and Senzel would have a more productive career if he stuck with it and adopted their recommended hitting approach.  At this point it is likely we will never know.  On the other hand, making changes like that in midseason when the player is already performing well seems like a case of trying to fix something that wasn't broken.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #8 Seth Corry

Seth Corry LHP.  DOB:  11/3/1998.  6'2", 195 lbs.

Low A:  9-3, 1.76, 122.2 IP, 12.62 K/9, 4.26 BB/9.

The Giants took HS players in the first 3 rounds of the 2017 draft with Seth Corry going in round 3.  He was a lefty pitcher from a small HS in Utah.  He was two prospects in his first 2 years as a pro:  A dominating future ace and a wild future bust.  With some help from Augusta pitching coach, Clay Rapada, Corry was able to suppress the wild version of himself and show dominance on a consistent basis.  For an excellent read on how Rapada was able to help Corry achieve this dominance, look up David Laurilia's story in Fangraphs from 11/26/2019.

So, just how dominant was Seth Corry in 2019?  You have to go all the way back to Madison Bumgarner to find a comparable pitching line:  15-3, 1.46, 141.2 IP, 10.42 K, 1.33 BB/9.  Bummy was a year younger and had much better command, but Corry wins the K/9 comp hands down.  Corry features a 4-pitch mix with 4 and 2-seam FB's that sit 90-94 MPH and top out at 95, a hammer curveball and an improving changeup.  From July 18- August 10, Corry had 5 consecutive starts with a total of 28.2 IP in which he did not allow a run and posted 44 K's against just 5 BB's.

The next logical stop is San Jose which will be a challenge.  Corry has to continue to build on his improved command.  If he does, he could jump on Bummy's bullet train to the majors.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Asa Lacy; Garrett Crochet

Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M).  6'4", 180 lbs.

2019(College):  8-4, 2.13, 88.2 IP, 43 BB, 130 K.
2019(USA):  0-0, 2.25, 12 IP, 5 BB, 9 K's.

Asa Lacy is a tall, solidly built lefty who has been on scouting radars from high school.  He has progressed as expected at a top notch college program.  He actually dominated in his sophomore campaign leading the nation in D1 hits allowed per 9 innings(5), third in opponents BA(.162) and 8'th in K rate(13.2/9).  He sports a 4 pitch with all of his pitches generating swings and misses.  The FB sits 92-95 and reaches 97 MPH.  The changeup is rated by one analyst as "one of the best....in the country."  On video, he shows at least moderate effort and I noticed he seems to vary his release point from pitch-to-pitch.  That may explain the relatively high walk rate which seems to be his only major flaw as a prospect.  He should spend the 2020 collegiate season working for more consistency in his delivery which should help his command.  I am not sure why Fangraphs has him ranked at #16.  MLB Pipeline has him much higher at #5 overal which is closer to where I think he may get drafted if he stays healthy and shows progress with his command.

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Garrett Crochet LHP, College(Tennessee).  6'5", 210 lbs.

2019:  5-3, 4.02, 65 IP, 22 BB, 81 K.

Garrett Crochet is not quite as advanced as Asa Lacy, but may have a higher ceiling.  He is 1-2 inches taller with a strong frame that still has room to fill out.  He was not highly regarded in high school with his FB topping out at 87 MPH, but has he has filled out, he has pumped up the velocity to as high a 100 MPH.  He probably sits more in the 94-96 MPH range.  He backs that up with a "swing and miss slider" and is developing a changeup.  His college major is Nuclear Engineering.  He's a guy I could see exploding in his junior season, even ending up as the #1 overall pick.  Again, Fangraphs has him ranked at #17 but MLB Pipeline has him at #9.  He could go higher than that by the time the draft rolls around if he stays healthy and continues to develop.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M).
6.  Garrett Crochet, College(Tennessee).
7.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.
8.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
9.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
10.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
11.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St.).
12.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
13.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
14.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
15.  Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).
16. Ed Howard SS, HS.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #7 Will Wilson

Will Wilson SS/2B.  DOB:  7/21/1998. B-R, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.

College:  .335/.425/.661, 20 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 1 SB, 33 BB, 46 K, 221 AB.
R(Pioneer):  .275/.328/.439, 10 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 6.9 BB%, 23.0 K%, 204 PA.

Christmas came early for Giants prospect watchers as Farhan Zaidi unexpectedly added a second first round pick to the Giants 2019 draft.  Wilson was a college SS with some pop in his bat when the Angels made him the #15 overall pick.  Farhan said the Giants considered him instead of Hunter Bishop at #10.  Wilson may not project as a MLB SS, he does not have much physical projection and the K rate is on the high side, but he probably has enough pop in his bat to play at 2B.  The Giants will use him at both positions in 2020.

It's a bit hard to get a reading on his pro debut since the Angels do not have an A level short season team, so Wilson played in the hitter-friendly advanced rookie Pioneer League putting up solid numbers.  As a first round college draft pick from an elite conference, I would expect to see him in San Jose to start 2020 which should give us a better feel for his potential.  Right now, he looks like a high floor prospect who could move up the ladder quickly.  He's been compared to 2B Brian Dozier which would be a terrific outcome to his career.

Hot Stove Update: D'Backs Add Kole Calhoun

First of all, happy Christmas to everyone.  I woke up to a nasty vertigo attack but am feeling much better this evening.  My almost 92 year old mother cooked up an unbelievable Christmas lunch/dinner for our immediate family.  I'm still waiting for it to settle before dessert.

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The dealing around the Hot Stove rolled on with undiminished intensity late into Christmas Eve with a couple of transactions which may directly or indirectly impact the Giants.  The Indians signed 2B Cesar Hernandez to a 1 year/$6.25 M contract.  Hernandez put up solid numbers over the past 5 seasons and has seen his power kick up a notch with 29 HR's in his last 2 campaigns.  He has some speed to steal bases and has posted strong OBP's despite the limited power.  Farhan Zaidi went into the Winter Meetings listing a left-handed hitting IF as a priority.  Now two players who fit that description, Travis Shaw and Hernandez have gone off the board in the last 2 days, although there are still potential targets left on the market.

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The Astros re-signed C Martin Maldonado to a 2 year/$7 M contract which was neither a surprise nor particularly impactful.

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The D'Backs made some more Hot Stove noise by signing OF Kole Calhoun to a 2 year/$14 M contract with a $9 M option for 2022 with a $2 M buyout for a total guarantee of $16 M.  Calhoun is a B-L, T-L corner OF, so may not have been a great fit for the Giants, but this seems like another smart move by the D'Backs who have only strengthened a team that won 85 games last year.  Calhoun had a down season in 2018, but rebounded to a 2.3 bWAR with 33 HR's in 2019.

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The Mets signed RHP Dellin Betances to a 1 year/$7.5 contract with multiple incentives and a player option for $6 M in 2021 with a $3 M buyout which brings the total guarantee in the package to $10.5 M.  Betances was an elite multi-inning reliever for the Yankees for 4 seasons but was plagued by injuries last year including a shoulder impingement problem and a partial Achilles tendon tear suffered in his first, and only, appearance of the season.  It's a great add by the Mets if he is fully healthy but with enough investment to hurt if he's not.

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Remember Antoan Richardson?  He was a fast little Giants prospect who drew a lot of walks in the lower minors, but his weak stick caught up with him at higher levels.  He's now 36 years old and has been the Giants minor league OF coordinator.  He's moving up to replaces Jose Alguacil as the Giants first base coach for 2020.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #6 Mauricio Dubon

Mauricio Dubon 2B/SS.  DOB:  7/19/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 160 lbs.

AAA:  ..302/.345/.477, 26 2B, 3B, 20 HR, 10 SB, 28 BB, 68 K, 548 PA.
MLB:  .274/.306/.434, 5 2B, 4 HR, 3 SB, 4.5 BB%, 18.0 K%, 111 PA.

Mauricio Dubon came to the Giants from the Brewers in the Drew Pomeranz trade and had a successful MLB debut while retaining his prospect status. Gotta say, if looking good in a baseball uniform is a predictor of future success, this kid is going to the Hall of Fame!  He looks a bit more stout than his listed 160 lbs.  His high contact approach may limit is power, but he showed the ability to turn on mistakes on the inner half and send them down the LF line and over the wall.  2019 was his first full season back from an ACL injury and his speed was down a tick from when he stole 38 bases in 2017.  Can he gain that back?  That would be a very exciting player!  The Giants seem to think he can play CF to increase versatility but he's only played a few innings at the position in his career.  He's probably an average fielder at both 2B and SS, but he showed several instances of high baseball IQ and savvy on defensive plays during his short stint at the end of last season.  I'm excited to see what he can do in a full MLB season in 2020.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #5 Logan Webb

Logan Webb RHP.  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'2", 220 lbs.

2019(MLB):  2-3, 5.22, 39.2 IP, 8.39 K/9, 3.18 BB/9. GB/FB= 2.11, 4.12 FIP, 3.89 xFIP.

Pretty much every Giants top prospect list has a top 4 of Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Bishop with some reversing Ramos and Luciano.  Once you get past that top tier though, the lists start to diverge.  My thought on Logan Webb is you have to be quite a prospect to rank higher than a guy who already showed he could compete at the MLB level.  Webb still qualifies as a prospect with less than 50 IP.  His MLB ERA is a bit ugly but the peripherals are strong.  While he doesn't have any significant physical projection, he has opportunity to refine his game which he has already shown the ability to do.

Webb appeared to be ready for an early MLB debut before getting popped for a PED suspension early in 2019.  He insists he does not know how the substance got into his body, but has stated it could have been a contaminated supplement.  Given the utter lack of evidence for supplement efficacy, he might want to just lay off those entirely going forward.  Anyway, the FB was down a tick for two from 2018, but per Fangraphs scouting report, he backs it up with a "dastardly" slider and an "improved" changeup.  The two-seam FB produces solid groundball numbers.  He'll have to watch out for the launch-angle hitters in MLB.  I'm thinking we could see the FB back up a tick in 2020 and he should continue to improve his command and pitch sequencing.

Farhan seems to want to find out what he has in Webb and Tyler Beede, but I could also see Webb starting out the 2020 season back in AAA if Farhan adds more depth in the Hot Stove season.  In any event, he should get plenty of innings at the MLB level.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Lose Nemesis

Over the past 6 seasons, Hyun-Jin Ryu made 18 Starts against the Giants with a 7-6 record and a 2.60 ERA.  Not only will he not be pitching for the Dodgers anymore, he'll be pitching in another league as he signed a 4 yr/$80 M contract with the Blue Jays.  This represents a major offseason win for the Giants without them having to spend a penny.  Although Ryu pitched like an ace when he was healthy, he missed huge chunks of time with injuries during his Dodgers career.  He's 33 years old to boot which makes this an extremely risky contract for the BJ's.  So no thank you.  Better he's with the Jays and out of the league than having that potential millstone of a contract around the Giants necks.  So much winning!

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Before the Winter Meetings, Farhan Zaidi said he was looking for a lefthanded hitting infielder.  One free agent who fit that description was Travis Shaw.  That option is off the market as he signed with the Blue Jays for 1 yr/$4 M guarantee with another $675 K in incentives.  Although Shaw was a terror at the plate in 2017 and 2018, his numbers cratered in 2019 to the point he was demoted to AAA and then non-tendered by the Brewers this fall.  $4 M guaranteed seems like a lot to see if he can bounce back.

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After the Ryu signing, LHP Alex Wood is suddenly MLBTR's top rated pitching free agent left on the market so a true replacement for Madison Bumgarner is not apparent at this point.  I look for Farhan to make a couple more depth signings.  Possible targets include Wood, RHP's Taijuan Walker, Homer Bailey, Andrew Cashner, Jerad Eickoff, Jimmy Nelson, Danny Salazar, and LHP's Drew Smyly and Rich Hill.  Farhan seems to be waiting for the market to come to him, but right now it sure seems like the market is running away.

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Left-handed hitting infielders left on the market include Asdrubal Cabrera(S), Scooter Gennett, Cesar Hernandez(S), Brock Holt, Brad Miller, Joe Panik, Yangervis Solarte(S), Neil Walker(S) and Ben Zobrist(S).

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #4 Hunter Bishop

Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.

2018(College):  .250/.352/.407, 5 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 4 SB, 10.91 BB%, 30.30 K%, 165 PA.
2018(Cape Cod League):  .233/.369/.350, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 SB, 16.11 BB%, 30.20 K%, 149 PA.
2019(College):  .342/.479/.748, 16 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 12 SB, 17.86 BB%, 21.79 K%, 280 PA.
R(AZL):  .250/.483/.550, 3 2B, HR, 2 SB, 31.0 BB%, 37.9 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season:  .224/.427/.400, 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 24.8 BB%, 23.9 K%, 117 PA.

The first draft pick of the Farhan Zaidi era.  Wow! Where to start with Hunter Bishop?  I guess the tools:  60 speed and 65 raw power.  Probably the most likely of the Giants bevy of OF prospects to end up in CF.  Arm is average.  The big question is the hit tool.  The college stat line from his junior season looks gaudy, but he built up a lot of that in non-conference play.  He hit just .264 with 7 HR in 145 PA in Pac-12 conference play with a soaring K rate.  Fangraphs attributes this to swinging over the improved breaking balls he saw in the Pac-12.  Then there are the numbers from his pro debut which are the most extreme true outcomes I recall seeing or hearing of in a pro debut.  I mean, even with a sample size of over 100 PA's at Salem-Keizer, almost 50% of his PA's ended in either a BB or a K.

So, 2020 promises to be a most telling season for where his career is heading.  I would think we'll see him in San Jose to start the season.  The patience and the power are great, but he almost certainly has to cut down on the K's and learn to handle breaking balls if he's ever going to put those tools and skills to use at higher levels.

Like his older brother, Braden, Hunter Bishop's makeup is said to be off the charts.  The Bishop boys recently held a fundraiser for their charity, 4MOM, in honor of their mother who died from early-onset Alzheimer's disease.  New Giants manager, Gabe Kapler, attended the event.

Hot Stove Update: White Sox Sign White Soxian Pitcher

Do you remember Mark Buerhle?  Of course you do!  Soft tossing lefty.  Didn't miss many bats.  Threw a no-hitter for the White Sox.  Well, the White Sox went out and signed Mark Buerhle Part Deux, Dallas Keuchal.  Keuchal is a former Cy Young award winner for the Astros, but has settled into a Mark Buerhle type career more recently.  That netted him a 3 year/$55 M contract with the White Sox with a vesting option for a 4'th year which would bring the total to 4 yrs/$74 M.  Keuchal seemed like an option for Farhan to sign, but I'm thinking Farhan is more interested in taking risks with pitchers who throw harder and have more swing and miss stuff.

The Chisox signed another White Soxian pitcher in Gio Gonzalez who is basically and older, cheaper version of Dallas Keuchal.  Gio's deal is for 1 yr/$4.5 with $1 M in incentives plus a team option for $7 M in. 2021 with a $500 K buyout.

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Other signings around the league include:

RHP Julio Tehran:  Angels, 1 yr/$9 M.
1B/DH CJ Cron: Tigers, 1 yr/$6.1 M
2B Jonathan Schoop:  Tigers,  1 yr/$6.1 M.
C Martin Maldonado:  Astros, 2 yr/$7 M(Re-sign).
2B Ian Kinsler:  Announced his retirement.
LHP Martin Perez:  Red Sox, 1 yr/$6 M with $6.25 M club option for 2021 with $500 K buyout.
3B Maikel Franco:  Royals, 1 yr/$2.95 with $1.05 M additional incentives.
1B/DH Justin Smoak:  Brewers, 1 yr/4.4 M with $5.5 M option for 2021 with $1 M buyout.
LHP Wade Miley:  Reds, $2 yrs/$14 M with $500 K incentives per year with club option for $10 M in 2022 with $1 M buyout.
2B Eric Sogard:  Brewers, 1 yr/$4.5 M with option.
OF Matt Kemp:  Marlins, minor league deal.
3B/1B Ryon Healy:  Brewers, ? terms(nice upside play here.
LHP Kwang-Hyun Kim:  Cardinals, 2 yrs/$8 M with $1.5 M incentives + 20% posting fee to SK Wyverns( I wondered if Zaidi might be fishing in in the Asian market- Maybe not).

Listing above mainly to get a view of the market for various player types.

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In response to a couple of comments to my last post:

I would not be surprised if Farhan Zaidi has more tricks up his sleeve, but I feel like I'm pretty safe in saying a trade of YtY and Brandon Belt for David Price and Tristan Casas is not going to happen.  Too many reasons why both teams would not want that deal.

Again, I doubt FZ considers Marcel Ozuna an option because I think he highly values the draft pick which would be lost due to QO.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Outfield Needs

Farhan Zaidi made some nifty moves at the Winter Meetings which Giants fans should be happy about.  He essentially purchased a mid-first round draft pick(Will Wilson) for $12 M, the remaining cost of Zack Cozart's contract, signed an enigmatic pitcher who still has a high ceiling(Kevin Gausman) for the relatively low cost of $9 M and plucked an interesting arm from the Rule 5 Draft in Dany Jimenez.  What has Giants fans restless and maybe a bit confused is Farhan implied going in that he was looking to make bigger deals than those enumerating a RH slugging corner OF, LH infielder and Starting Pitcher as his needs.  So far, he has not met those expectations he created.  In fact, he appears to have fallen further behind the curve with the departure of Madison Bumgarner, the leader of the starting rotation and Kevin Pillar, last season's best OF.

After Pillar was non-tendered, Farhan explained the decision as creating opportunity to evaluate younger players like Steven Duggar and Jaylin Davis.  We've even read about Manager Gabe Kapler  checking in on Joe McCarthy and there is talk of trying Mauricio Dubon in the OF!  Farhan and Kapler have invested a ton of political capital in an army of player development zealots and why do that if you aren't going to commit to developing players?  If that is the plan, I for one am fine with it, but then why do we keep hearing about pursuits of likes of Nick Castellanos and Steven Souza Jr?  And how does player development, which generally takes time and patience, fit with The Churn?

With that background, let's break down what the Giants currently have and who they might still acquire in the free agent and trade markets:

Current 40 Man Roster:

Jaylin Davis RH:  AAA monster bat with enough speed and athleticism to play all 3 OF positions.  Farhan and Gabe have pointed to him as a guy who could be unlocked at the MLB level by the new player development gurus.

Alex Dickerson LH:  Exciting bat when healthy, but has never stayed healthy for long.  Defensively challenged and limited to LF.

Steven Duggar LH:  Probably the best defensive CF on the roster, but has had last two seasons cut short by shoulder injuries and the bat is still a question mark.

Joe McCarthy LH:  intriguing bat, but needs to prove it at AAA first.

Chris Shaw LH:  Light tower power but will the bat play?  Limited to LF or 1B.  Probably more of a backup plan for if Dickerson gets hurt again.

Austin Slater RH:  Another intriguing talent who has not quite put it all together.  Can play both corners but CF only in a pinch.

Mike Yastrzemski LH:  Last year's breakout.  Is there room to grow or will last year prove to be the peak of his career?

Mauricio Dubon RH:  Presumptive starter at 2B but can also play SS.  Talk of expanding his versatility by trying him in CF!  This would enable Gabe to run a straight platoon at all 3 OF positions:  Dickerson/Slater LF, Duggar/Dubon CF, Y2Y/Davis RF.

All that might be fun for us hardcore types to watch, but is it enough to put the butts of ordinary fans in seats?  Probably not.  The big question is how much ownership and management are willing to sacrifice butts for lower payroll in the short term and how committed they are to seeing if the investment in player development will pay off?

Now let's move on to the FA/Trade market and see what is still available after the wave of high priced signings:

Nick Castellanos:  Rumors of a mutual interest seemed to be heating up, but now seem to have cooled in the last few days.  A clear upgrade at the plate, but defensively challenged and likely limited to LF which would push Alex Dickerson off the team or at least to the bench.  Castellanos would be a significant multi-year investment.  Is he THAT guy?

Marcel Ozuna:  Seems like the best overall OF on the market, but has a QO and Farhan seems to place an incredibly high value on draft picks.  So I'm thinking Ozuna is not an option for that reason alone.

Yasiel Puig:  Losing Bumgarner and adding Puig would be an enormous outrage for a lot of Giants fans including people in my own family.  He's not a terrible fit, though, and may come at a significant discount due to off-field and clubhouse concerns.  Much more versatile defensively than Castellanos.

Steven Souza Jr:  Nice bounceback candidate who would be a short term commitment at a discount, but may not be all that cheap as several other teams are reportedly interested.

Joey Rickard:  Nice cheap short half of platoon option, but probably not worth bumping Slater/Davis/Dubon from those roles.

Kevin Pillar:  Most fans would probably be happy with Pillar as the full time CF, but if Farhan wanted him, he would have likely signed him at the Non-tender deadline. Farhan seems to have moved on.

Wil Myers:  The Padres have a loaded farm system which might interest Farhan in another prospect buying deal.  Is Myers a potential project for the Player Development boys?  That's a big contract to take on!

There you have it!  Are there any other under-the-radar options out there?  How would you like to see the Giants outfield situation shake out?

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #3 Marco Luciano

Marco Luciano SS.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.

R(AZL):  .322/.438/.616, 9 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 8 SB, 15.2 BB%, 21.9 K%, 178 PA.
Short Season:  .212/.316/.333, 4 2B, SB, 13.2 BB%, 15.8 K%, 38 PA.

Marco Luciano was one of the highest rated prospects in the 2018 J2 international pool and the Giants nabbed him along with several other highly rated prospects.  Arizona rookie league is an agressive placement for international prospects in their first pro season and Luciano absolutely crushed it.  Then after a 1 for 16 start after an unusually agressive late season promotion to Salem-Keizer, he went 6 for 21 with 3 doubles in his last 5 games.  His season was then cut short by some sort of tweak which is not expected to be in issue going forward.  In addition to strong slash lines, Luciano showed excellent plate discipline with a strong walk rate and relatively low K rate.

I ranked Heliot Ramos a tick ahead of Marco, because of Heliot's performance at AA at age 19, but Marco likely has the higher ceiling of the two.  Once again, the Fangraphs boys break out the colorful language to describe what sounds like an ecstatic experience watching Marco take batting practice in Arizona.  Just listen to this:  "....a few lucky scouts and media folks had a religious experience watching the sweetest-swinging teenager on Earth absolutely roast balls fed to his barrel by a high-speed pitching machine."  There is a video clip attached to Marco's line in Fangraphs Giants prospect list which I think is from this batting practice session.  Go check it out!

On video, while he is not quite as bulky as Heliot Ramos, Marco is noticeably broad shouldered, but otherwise a bit more lithe with more fluidity to his movements.  There are questions about his ability to make off-balance throws from SS and talk of ultimately moving to the OF.  Other scouts think he can stick at SS.  If he does, he could be a top 5 overall prospect in a couple of years.

Whether you favor proximity or ceiling, it's incredibly exciting to have two young prospects of the caliber of Heliot Ramos and Marco Luciano at 2 and 3.  Ramos is obviously closing in on a MLB debut having played in AA and the AFL.  Luciano might not be far behind and will likely move up the ladder much faster under the Farhan Zaidi regime than what we are used to seeing.  I could even see him making his MLB debut sometime during his age 19 season in 2021.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #2 Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos OF.  DOB:  9/7/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 200 lbs.

A+:  .306/.385/.500, 18 2B, 13 HR, 6 SB, 9.5 BB%, 25.1 K%, 338 PA.
AA:  .242/.321/.421, 6 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 9.4 BB%, 31.1 K%, 105 PA.
AFL:  .185/.250/.262, 2 2B, HR, SB, 5 BB, 23 K, 70 PA.

The Fangraphs boys strike again as they describe Heliot Ramos(pronounced Elliott) as "built like a boulder set on top of two Iberian hams."  Ramos, who struggled in low A Augusta in 2018, bounced back with a strong 2019 campaign at a young age for his level showing an ability to hit for both average and power and the ability to take a walk.  The only negative being a high K rate, although age is a consideration here and the 25% for the bulk of the season in San Jose is manageable as long as it comes with strong walk rate.

While the age vs level is favorable, Heliot probably does not have any significant physical projection due to the above described physique.  It does give him time to polish up his approach at the plate.  Unfortunately, there is already evidence of speed regression which may force him to a corner OF role.

I am still ranking him over Marco Luciano in my #2 slot due to performance at a higher level of play and proximity to the majors while admitting Luciano appears to have a significantly higher ceiling.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Ed Howard

Ed Howard SS, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.

Glowing scouting reports but tools don't quite come up to other high schoolers on this list.  6.76 60-yard dash, 79 MPH FB velocity, 88 MPH IF velocity. 95 MPH exit velocity is impressive pop.  Scouts rave about his physical projection but and there is definitely some there.  Physically reminds me of Jalen Miller or a younger Howie Kendrick.  Nice prospect, but not one I would necessarily draft in the first round over a college prospect.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.
6.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
7.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
8.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
9.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
10. Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
11. Mick Abel RHP, HS.
12. Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
13. Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).
14. Ed Howard SS, HS.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #1 Joey Bart

Joey Bart C.  DOB:  12/15/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 235 lbs.

A+:  .265/.315/479, 12 HR, 5 SB, 5.6 BB%, 19.9 K%, 251 PA.
AA:  .316/.368/.544, 4 HR, 8.0 BB%, 24.1 K%, 87 PA.
AFL:  .333/.524/.767, 4 HR, 7 BB, 21 K, 86 PA.

I saw Joey Bart play in San Bernardino just before his promotion to AA.  Everybody in my party had the same reaction:  He's a big guy!  He's not hard to pick out on a ball field because he's the biggest player.  The Fangraphs scouting report(I must say, Eric Longerhagen and Kiley McDaniel create by far the most colorful scouting reports I have ever read) compares his size to ex-footballer Mike Alstott, of all people!  When Bart was fully healthy and not having to deal with a manager who hated him(I don't know for sure if Billy Hayes hated him or not, but SOMETHING was going on there!), he was bashing baseballs into oblivion.  He dominated AA, usually a very tough assignment for Giants position prospects, after his promotion.  He then made a mockery of the Arizona Fall League until his AFL season was cut short by another fractured bone in his hand from a HBP.  He previously suffered a fractured hand near the beginning of the Cal League season.

For all his awesome power and breathtaking hot streaks, what really stands out in the Fangraphs scouting report is his defense behind the plate and leadership.  "....lateral quickness and ground game of a small-framed catcher.  He's quick out of the crouch and throws accurate lasers to second base."  "...a rousing vocal leader at times and a calming presence at others."  MLB Pipeline pretty much backs up the Fangraphs scouting report, but with less colorful language.

The Giants have no reason to rush Joey Bart.  I suspect he'll start the season back in AA Richmond with opportunity for midseason promotion to AAA and maybe even to the Giants later in the season. It would not shock me to see him playing other positions to create versatility as he joins the Giants while Buster Posey is still finishing up his career.  I can just imagine a guy his size chasing down fly balls in LF.   If I had to pick a hitter who just might hit one into the Big Glove at Oracle Park, it would be Bart.  Can't wait to see him try.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects

Since there were so few suggested changes, rather than rewrite the list in a new post, I edited the Preliminary list and changed the title to reflect it as the final list.  I added C Ricardo Genoves at #41 and added OF Heath Quinn and IF Abiatal Avelino to the Honorable Mention list.  Adding Genoves  forced LHP Bryce Tucker from #50 to Honorable Mention.

Hot Stove Update: The Stove Stays Hot

The Hot Stove kept humming with several lower level, yet significant, signings:

The Mets signed RHP Rick Porcello to a 1 yr/$10 M contract.  Citi Field offers a friendly pitching environment in which to recover from his ugly 5.52 ERA last year with the Red Sox.

OF Avisail Garcia signed a 2 yr/$20 M deal with the BrewCrew.  The seems like both too much and too little for a guy who has a high ceiling but has been plagued by inconsistency his whole career.  He's a guy I thought Farhan might take a flyer on, but maybe Farhan only wants 1 year deals?

The Astros re-signed RHP Joe Smith, 2 yrs/$8 M.  Smith is an above average sidearming setup reliever.

The Twins were reportedly nearing a deal with RHP Sergio Romo for 1 year/$5 M guaranteed with options that could make it 2 yrs/$10 M.  Believe it or not, Romo will turn 37 years old before the start of the season.  Really, the Boy from Brawley has had a most remarkable MLB career.  If he completes both years of this contract, he will have earned just under $45 M over the course of his career and good for him!  I read someplace where when he left Brawley to go play baseball the locals told him he'd be back just like all the others.  Romo's reply was he'd be back alright, but not like all the others!  Man, did he ever make good on that!

The Rays signed Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo for $12 M(unclear for how long).  There's a 20% posting fee which brings the cost to the Rays to $14.4 M.  Tsutsugo is listed as a 3B/OF, but is reportedly defensively challenged at any position.  By the numbers, he sure can hit, though.  He's a lefty hitter who is 28 years old.

Lastly, the Reds signed LHP Wade Miley for 2 yr/$15 M with on option for a 3'rd year for $10 M with a $1 M buyout.  Miley is 33 yo but coming off a couple of strong seasons with the Brewers and Astros.

I think the main value in listing these deals is seeing what the market is paying for right now.  Any of these deals seem like ones that might fit into Farhan's plan to compete now while rebuilding longterm.

Hot Stove Update: A Giants Legend Moves On

Well, that's it folks.  Madison Bumgarner's time with the Giants has run out after one of the better runs in Giants history.  Today we learned that he will be playing for division rival D'Backs for at least the next 5 years.  That's the times we are living in.  The days of players spending an entire career with the team that signed them and brought them up through the minors is over.  We'll have to be satisfied with getting the best of Bumgarner's career as well as Buster's, Timmy's and Cainer's.  Hey!  We got all of Cainer's career and could get all of Buster's too!

The Giants have had some great pitchers in the organization starting with Christy Mathewson then Carl Hubbell.   I grew up in the Marichal/Perry era.  Bumgarner is special out of all those because not only was he an ace level pitcher, without his postseason heroics, it is likely the Giants would not have won any World Series during his career let alone 3.  For all his greatness, Juan Marichal never won a World Series(not his fault).

So yeah, this is a sad day.  What make it harder to swallow is the contract he ultimately signed seems to be well within Giants budgetary constraints and within the performance levels he can reasonably expected to produce over the next 5 seasons.  It would not put the Giants in danger of having to pay a payroll tax either in 2020 or in subsequent years.  In short, re-signing Bummy to this contract(5 year/$85 M) would not halt or delay any "rebuild" in any way shape or form.  OK, maybe the extra draft pick turns into a Hall of Famer, but it's highly unlikely.

On the other hand, I am not going to lead the "fire Farhan" charge over this.  Bummy has a ton of mileage on his arm and large longterm contracts haven't exactly worked out well for the Giants over the past decade, so I understand the argument for letting him go.  I've made it myself!  I actually really like the deals Farhan made at the Winter Meetings.  In fact, I was just thinking of writing a post about how the Giants should be included in those lists of Winners of the Winter Meetings!  Hopefully Farhan has a few more of those up his sleeve and will re-allocate money that might have been used to sign Bummy for other good things.

One more thing:  I wish Bummy the best, but not his team.  I think he may find that he misses pitching half of his games in Oracle Park.

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The Rangers traded Delino DeShields and RHP Emmanuel Clase to the Indians for RHP Corey Kluber.  Kluber missed most of last season with injuries, although the main one was a freak fracture of his arm on a comeback liner so should not have a lasting impact.  Of some concern, is the loss of velocity he showed prior to the injury.  This seems like a light return for a pitcher of Kluber's stature. This shows how tough it is to trade a player without proof of current health.  If he does bounce back, the Rangers have built themselves a formidable starting rotation to open their new ballpark with.

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CORRECTION:  I corrected a mistake in the text above in which I originally said Juan Marichal never pitched in a postseason game.  A reader pointed out he pitched in the NLCS in 1971 against the Pirates.  I could be mistaken, but I think he also may have pitched in the 1962 World Series against the Yankees.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects List

The end of the Winter Meetings is the traditional start day for DrB's Giants Top 50 Prospect list to be unveiled.  We then write up profiles of each prospect on a daily basis.   There may be more changes before the start of the season since Farhan seems to be interested in taking on more bad contracts for prospects, but there is no indication of when those trades might occur and if we wait too much longer, we run the profiles into Spring Training.  This preliminary list is your opportunity to suggest additional names or moving prospects up or down the list.  I do take reader comments into account and have made changes as result in prior lists.

As always, I advise readers to not get too hung up on the exact order(although we do take the rankings seriously).  The main objective of the exercise is to allow readers to become more familiar with prospects we may be rooting for at Oracle Park in the future.

I try to consider both ceiling and proximity to the majors in my rankings.  This is always challenging because it's the proverbial apples and oranges.  How do you compare a player like Jaylin Davis who is on the 40 man roster and who the Giants clearly want to give a serious chance to this season with, say, Alexander Canario who has shown both tools and performance but is still in the lower minors?

With that preamble, here is the preliminary list, subject to extensive editing before it is finalized in a future post:

1.  Joey Bart C
2.  Heliot Ramos OF
3.  Marco Luciano SS
4.  Hunter Bishop OF
5.  Logan Webb RHP
6.  Mauricio Dubon SS/2B
7.  Will Wilson SS/2B
8.  Seth Corry LHP
9.  Alexander Canario OF
10.  Jairo Pomares OF
11.  Luis Matos OF
12.  Luis Toribio 3B
13.  Tyler Rogers RHP
14.  Sean Hjelle RHP
15.  Jaylin Davis OF
16.  Dany Jimenez RHP
17.  Melvin Adon RHP
18.  Camilo Doval RHP
19.  Gregory Santos RHP
20.  Jake Wong RHP
21.  Chris Shaw OF/1B
22.  Conner Menez LHP
23.  Caleb Baragar LHP
24.  Aramis Garcia C
25.  David Villar 3B
26.  Logan Wyatt 1B
27.  Sandro Fabian OF
28.  Tristan Beck RHP
29.  Grant McCray OF
30.  Diego Rincones OF
31.  Franklin Labour OF
32.  Trevor McDonald RHP
33.  Blake Rivera RHP
34.  Rayner Santana C
35.  Victor Bericoto OF/1B
36.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS
37.  Matt Frisbee RHP
38.  Caleb Kilian RHP
39.  Kai-Wei Teng RHP
40.  Frankie Tostado 1B
41.  Ricardo Genoves
42.  Garrett Frechette 1B
43.  Connor Cannon 1B
44.  Prelander Berroa RHP
45.  Dilan Rosario SS
46.  PJ Hilson OF
47.  Jacob Heyward OF
48.  Jalen Miller 2B
49.  Ryan Howard IF
50.  Jesus Tona RHP

Honorable Mention(no particular order):  Ismael Munguia OF, Kervin Castro RHP, Garrett Cave RHP, Conner Nurse RHP, Bryce Fehmel RHP, Carter Aldrete 2B/1B, Yorlis Rodriguez 3B, Armani Smith OF, Kwan Adkins OF, Sonny Vargas LHP, Ghordy Santos SS/2B, Richgelon Juliana OF, George Bell OF, Jesus Gomez LHP, Juan Sanchez LHP, Javeyon Williams OF, Najee Gaskins OF, Sam Selman LHP, Enderson Franco RHP, Joe McCarthy OF, Bryce Tucker LHP, Heath Quinn OF, Abiatal Avelino IF.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker 3B, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.

One thing that makes draft scouting fun is finding unexpected things when you click on a name that shows up on a list.  It's kind of like opening presents at Christmas.  When you do it for awhile, a lot of these kids start to have a certain sameness about them.  Then there are kids like Jordan Walker who make you almost gasp when you see the video.  He's unusually tall for a left-sided infield prospect but athletic enough to stay at 3B long term.  On the other hand he has enough speed to play CF with an arm good enough to pitch.  He literally could play any position on the field except catcher.

By the numbers, Walker runs a 6.56 60-yd dash with 93 MPH FB velocity off the mound, 92 MPH IF velocity and 100 MPH Exit Velocity.  PG describes him as "long and strong" with "plenty of room to get stronger."  He's got a fairly simple set up and swing, but as with all tall hitters, the natural length could be a problem.  I've read comps to Jayson Werth.  He reminds me of Jo Adell from a couple of drafts ago.  Love this kid.

I wonder if Farhan Zaidi's faith in player development might make him more likely to draft high upside kids like this?  I mean, why invest in all those player development people if you aren't going to leverage that into drafting kids with sky high ceilings then trusting the development guys to get them there?  If that's the strategy, I could see the Giants going against the grain and drafting a Zac Veen or Jordan Walker at #13 if they are there due to teams ahead of them taking safer college players.  Walker could be a tough sign, though, as he is reportedly an excellent student with a verbal commitment to Duke.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.
6.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
7.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
8.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
9.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
10.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
11.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
12.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
13.  Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).

Hot Stove Update: Giants Take Pitcher in Rule 5 Draft

I can't remember the last time a Rule 5 draftee remained on the active roster for the full following season.  At one point last year, Travis Bergen looked like he would, but alas, injuries and inconsistency finally forced the Giants to offer him back to the Blue Jays and they obliged.  One factor which may play in favor of a Rule 5 pick sticking a full season is the expanded active roster to 26 players.  This year, the Giants went back to the Blue Jays farm system to make a selection and grabbed RHP Dany Jimenez.

Dany Jimenez RHP.  DOB:  12/23/1993.  6'3", 190 lbs.

2019 A+:  5-1, 3.55, 25.1 IP, 16.70 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 4 Saves.
2019 AA:  2-2, 1.87, 33.2 IP, 12.30 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 6 Saves.

Here is Kiley McDaniel's scouting report from Fangraphs:

"Like Ramirez, Jimenez also signed late, agreeing to his first pro contract just before he turned 22.  He also missed  most of 2017 due to injury, and those sorts of factors combined to limit him to just 33 innings above A-ball even though he is about to turn 26.  He sits 93-95, touches 97, the heater spins 3450 rpm, and Jimenez's vertical arm slot makes it harder for hitters to discern the fastball and his power breaking ball from one another..  I think he's pretty likely to stick in a relief role."

MLB Pipeline slotted Jimenez at #28 in their Giants top 30 Prospects list and mentioned he also throws a changeup which helps keep LH batters honest.  Between his scouting report, success at AA and the expanded roster, I think Jimenez has a great chance to make it through the season.  I could even see him eventually moving into a SP or Closer role.

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The Giants selected C/1B/3B Bryan Torres from the Brewers organization in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft.  Unlike the MLB phase, the Giants do not have to keep him all season regardless of his assigned level.

Bryan Torres C/1B/3B.  DOB:  7/2/1997.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 165 lbs.

2019 R:  .283/.373/.356, 13 2B, 2 3B, 21 SB, 11.1 BB%, 11.1 K%, 271 PA.

It's not clear why Torres spend 5 seasons in rookie ball, but he has some intriguing secondary stats.  Giants have a year to figure out if he can play at a higher level.  They would have to add him to the 40 man roster at some point or he would be Rule 5 eligible again next season.

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LHP Garrett Williams was revealed to be the PTBNL in the Zack Cozart/Will Wilson trade.  He was Rule 5 eligible and the Giants must have thought there was a good chance he would be picked and must have preferred whoever they selected over Williams for the 40-man roster spot.  Williams was never able to overcome his control/command issues in 4 seasons with the Giants organization.

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The Giants lost 3 players in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft:  RHP's Adam Oller and Miguel Figueroa and SS/IF Manuel Geraldo.  Kind of hurts to lose Geraldo.  I've been a big fan of his athleticism and switch-hitting, but extremely slow starts year after year held back his progress to higher levels.  I feel like he could show up on an active roster somewhere someday and be a decent player.

Hot Stove Update: Rendon to Angels; Bummy Remains Unsigned

We spent most of Day 3 of the Winter Meetings hearing reports the Giants are "still in discussions" with Madison Bumgarner and his team while holding our breaths at reports the Dodgers are in on him. Meanwhile the Angels agreed to terms with Anthony Rendon for 7 years/$245 M AKA as The Strasburg.  The Angels now have a nice threesome of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Rendon in the middle of their lineup.  They still desperately need better pitching.

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With multiple teams now rumored to be pivoting to Josh Donaldson in the wake of the Rendon signing, you wonder if Farhan might be able to gin up a market for Even Longoria?  Rumors that Nolan Arenado might be available could complicate a Longo trade scenario, but an Arenado trade seems quite unlikely.

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Lower level pitchers flew off the Free Agent shelves yesterday as teams went bargain shopping in the wake of Gerrit Cole coming off the market.  There's too many here to go into details, but Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello go to the Mets, Tanner Roark to the BJ's and Josh Lindblom signs with the BrewCrew.  I had thought Lindblom and/or Porcello might be Farhan targets.  I do think Kevin Gausman has a higher ceiling than any of these 4 though.

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So, we'll keep chewing our nails on Bummy.  I think Bum has gas left in his tank and the Giants can easily afford him, now and in the future, so why not?  Add in that he's team icon and it would absolutely rip the hearts out of most Giants fans to see him in a Dodgers uniform, I say sign him up!

Hot Stove Update: What Yankees Want, Yankees Get

It turns out the Yankees wanted Gerrit Cole very badly and quickly upped the ante to a massive 9 year/$324 M contract.  The contract has a full no-trade clause and an opt-out after the 5'th year.  Cole apparently grew up a Yankees fan even though he lived in SoCal(I think he may have played on the Yankees travel team as a kid) so maybe that's what sealed the deal, but whatever it was, the fallout is likely to spread far and wide.  1.  The Angels and Dodgers were both left holding their *****'s, especially the Angels who had given up a top prospect to the Giants to unload a contract which presumably was to put them in a better position to offer Cole more.  2.  Madison Bumgarner is suddenly the top FA pitcher left on the market with a long list of teams still in need of a frontline SP.  Hot rumor is he is now the Dodgers top target.  Ugh!   Bummy is going to get paid and probably not by the Giants.  3.  I read somewhere the Yanks are now way over the top level CBT tax and are trying to unload JA Happ and his contract.  Maybe that opens up another path to a top prospect for Farhan, who has financial room to pull of not just one, but several of these deals?

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Didi Gregorius signed a 1 year/$14 M contract with the Phillies which puts him in another hitter-friendly environment.  I love Didi, but he would have been a poor fit for the Giants in that he is a left-handed dead pull hitter, a type Oracle Park is notoriously unfriendly to.

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One hot rumor has the Giants taking David Price and his contract from the Red Sox if Andrew Benintendi comes along in the deal.  I like Benintendi, but am not sure how much he really solves for the Giants.  I might be more interested this kind of deal if at least one more top prospect was included. Another team with a contract they are almost desperate to unload and who have a really strong farm system is the Padres with Wil Myers being the bad contract.

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In response to the Anon who had a long list of valid concerns about both the Cozart/Wilson deal I would make the following points:

1.  The current bonus pool/slotting system grossly undervalues draft picks.  If there were unlimited bonuses in the draft, the Giants or almost any team would gladly pay an extra $9 M to a draft pick in the 10-15 range such as Wilson. There are no guarantees with prospects, but Wilson has a solid chance to be at least an average SS which is actually pretty valuable.  He makes the Giants farm system noticeably stronger immediately.  I expect him to start 2020 in San Jose. We'll see how he does there.  I think he'll do quite well.

2.  The $22 M Farhan spent yesterday should have no bearing on whether he signs Bumgarner or not. The Giants have plenty of room left to sign both Bum and a power hitting OF and a lefthanded hitting IF if that's how they choose to spend their money.

In short, the Giants still have the resources to put together a competitive time for 2020 AND build up the farm system for the future.  It remains to be seen if Farhan can pull that off or if he is even trying.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Buy Draft Pick, Sign Pitcher

Farhan Zaidi took advantage of the Angels almost desperate desire to unload payroll by taking on Zack Cozart and the $12 M left on his contract also acquire the Angels 2019 first round draft pick(#15 overall) SS Will Wilson.  Cozart, you may recall, had a career year for the Reds in 2017 in which he OPS'd .933 on top of excellent defensive metrics.  He signed a 3 year/$38 M FA contract with the Angels but has turned in two injury-plagued, disappointing seasons since.  The Giants take on all of the 1 yr/$12 M left on his contract.  Cozart is a decent candidate for a bounceback year but is also an even bet or better to not still be on the Giants roster come Opening Day because he is not the guy the Giants wanted.  His contract was the price they paid for Will Wilson.

Wilson was the Angels first round draft pick just this year, #15 overall.  According to Farhan, the Giants seriously considered drafting him #10 overall instead of Hunter Bishop.  Wilson slashed .339/.429/.665 with 16 HR his junior season at NC State.  That backed up a 15 HR sophomore campaign.  After the draft, he was assigned to Orem in the Pioneer League, an advanced rookie league where he put up a line of .275/.328/.439 with 5 HR in 204 PA.  Hard to make too much out of that as you would expect a first round college draftee to be placed at a higher level and the Pioneer League is notoriously hitter-friendly.  Wilson is not a fast runner, but scouting reports say he is quick enough to play SS.  The Giants say they will play him at both SS and 2B wherever he is assigned in 2020.  So wow!  Very nice pickup by Zaidi who is starting to impress me just a little bit here.  When you figure Wilson's signing bonus of a little over $3 M was paid by the Angels, we can subtract that from the cost of taking on Cozart's contract for a net cost of $9 M.  The Giants will eventually send back a PTBNL or cash considerations to complete the trade.  And in another affirmation of the current strength of the Giants farm system, Wilson was the Angels 4'th ranked prospect by both MLB and Fangraphs.  He's now listed as #7 in the Giants system.

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The Giants also signed RHP Kevin Gausman to a 1 yr/$9 M FA contract.  Gausman has always had premium stuff, but has has extremely inconsistent results on the field.  He's a guy who almost perennially seems to be on the verge of a breakout, but never quite seems to get there.  At age 29, he still seems to be a decent bet for a breakout.  He's pitched in some lousy pitching environments with the Orioles, Braves and Reds so maybe Oracle Park what the doctor ordered for his pitching career?

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The Giants are still rumored to be in on OF Nick Castellanos and there is come crazy talk of taking on David Price's contract to get Andrew Benintendi.  Stay tuned for Day 3 of the Winter Meetings.

Hot Stove Update: Strasburg Agrees to Mega Deal

The MLB Winter Meetings started out with the usual BS about the Yankees were prepping an offer for Gerrit Cole for $245 M, blah, blah, blah.  BTW, I wonder who planted that rumor and where the number came from?  Oh!  Hi there, Scott Boras!  Scott Boras just happens to also be Stephen Strasburg's agent and later in the day came the bombshell announcement that Strasburg was re-upping with the Nationals for.......wait for it.....$245 M over 7 years!  Suddenly it was the Yankees who looked like cheapskates and talk of Gerrit Cole commanding well over $300 M filled the time at MLB channel.

At this point, comment on the money seems pointless.  This just reinforces my long held belief that any MLB team can easily afford any player they really want for any amount of money.  Stephen Strasburg is an ace pitcher.  Championships are won by ace pitchers.  The Nationals keep their aces together for a few more years.  End of story.  This deal can't help but be a boon to Madison Bumgarner's market.  Bummy's team is reportedly demanding a 9-figure contract and why shouldn't they?

Thoughts on Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller

I don't usually comment too much on the Hall of Fame.  I think it's become a bit of a joke since players from the PED era became eligible.  I will comment on the two people who were elected yesterday.

Marvin Miller is probably not who most fans would pick for the HOF.  He was the founding director of the MLBPA, an organization many fans, probably falsely, feel vicimized by.  The MLBPA is probably the strongest players union in a major sport and that is largely due to Marvin Miller's efforts on their behalf.  Fans may long for the day when players would spend their whole career with one team and didn't get paid in numbers that don't even make sense to most people.  On the other hand, the Reserve Clause was a highly regressive rule which should never have been legal in the first place. Once the Reserve Clause was abolished, the owners have benefitted as much from the contracts they have signed with the MLBPA because the alternative would be unrestricted free agency.  Marvin Miller deserves to be in the HOF. The only shame in it is he was elected posthumously.

Once upon a time, I thought Ted Simmons was the best hitter in baseball.  Modern defensive metrics would probably not be kind to him, but the man sure could hit.  He was a switch-hitter who had almost identical career slash lines from both sides of the plate.  He was a Joey Votto type hitter who walked more than he struck out with a high BA and decent power.  His breakout season came in 1975 when he slashed .332/.396/.491 with 18 HR.  He then had a down season in 1976, but bounced back with 4 consecutive seasons in which he hit over .280 with at least 20 HR's, OBP's of at least .369 and SLG%'s above .500.  Remember, all this occurred when pitching was still dominant in MLB.  His best seasons were with the Cardinals.  He won an AL Pennant with the Brewers but his production at the plate tailed off dramatically after being traded from the Cardinals.  So, I'm all in for Ted Simmons, one of my favorite players from when I was a lot younger.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).  6'4", 220 lbs.

2018:  3-2, 6.75, 17 IP, 13 BB, 18 K.
2019:  5-3, 3.28, 60 IP, 35 BB, 59 K.
2018:  .202/.333/.332, 7 2B, 6 HR, 14.04 BB%, 40.00 K%, 235 PA.
2019:  .319/.393/.611, 5 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 10.71 BB%, 28.57 K%, 84 PA.
2017(Futures League):  0-0, 0.00, 2.1 IP, 2 BB, 3 K's.
2018(Cape Cod League):  0-1, 4.15, 13 IP, 15 BB, 15 K.
2017(Futures League):  .206/.265/.286, 2 2B, HR, 7.35 BB%, 30.88 K%, 68 PA.
2018(Cape Cod League):  .167/.167/.167, 0 BB, 4 K, 6 PA.

Cade Cavalli is a true two-way player who has gradually migrated toward pitching.  Most scouts see him as a pitcher in the draft.  Sources I have read seem to indicate Cavalli is conceding that reality and plans to focus on pitching his junior season.  Tremendous physical tools with plus athleticism despite the large frame.  FB has reportedly hit 99 MPH with a plus curveball and a changeup that projects as average.  Obvious struggles with walks gives him some reliever risk.  If he dramatically cuts down on the walks his junior season, I could see him rising to a top 5-6 pick.  If not, he would profile as someone you would take a flyer on late first or even 2'nd/3'rd round.

Given Farhan Zaidi's obvious belief in a strong player development program, I wonder if he would be more likely to favor drafting a player like this who has a high ceiling but needs development to reach it as opposed to a J.T. Ginn who is more of a high floor type?  I'm going to lean toward yes.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).
3.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
6.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
7.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
8.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
9.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
10.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.
11.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
12.  Cade Cavalli RHP, College(Oklahoma).

Hot Stove Update: Trade Market Heats Up

The trade market heated up as the Padres continued to remake their OF situation by acquiring Tommy Pham from the Rays for Hunter Renfroe.  SS prospect Xavier Edwards is also moving from the Padres to the Rays with a PTBNL coming back.  Pham is probably more of an all-around player than Renfroe, but Renfroe has tremendous power that he may be just starting to tap into.  Fangraphs also surprisingly(at least to me) grades Renfroe out as a better fielder.  The Padres seem to be making aggressive challenge trades this hot stove season and it's a challenge to see how they have really helped themselves.

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The Brewers acquired left-handed hitting C Omar Narvaez from the Mariners for a prospect and a CB round draft pick.  I always like the setup of a left-handed hitting primary catcher paired in a straight platoon with a righty hitter.  The Mariners apparently see Tom Murphy emerging as their primary catcher which made Narvaez, who seems to be a bit defensively challenged, expendable.

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The Astros shipped OF Jake Marisnick to the Mets for a couple of minor leaguers.  Marisnick has all the tools in the world but struggles at the plate against RHP's so is limited to the the short end of a platoon and late-inning defensive replacement.  It's not clear how this trade moves the needle much for the Mets.

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The Giants announced a couple of hires:  33 yo Donnie Ecker will be the new hitting coach.  Ecker was the assistant hitting coach for the Reds and is credited with helping Aristides Aquino unlock his power.  Ecker's playing career never got past the low minors and indy ball but he has made a name for himself as a coach at the HS, college and pro levels. The Giants also announced the addition of Mets Director of Pro Scouting Jim D'Aloia to the Giants scouting staff. Aloia is reported to have argued strongly against including Jarred Kelenic in the Cano/Diaz trade.  So far, it looks like he was right in that argument.  I'll give credit to Farhan for casting a wide net and creating new roles for his coaching and scouting hires while bringing in young guys who appear to be very innovative and forward thinking with strong emphasis on getting better performance out of talent already in the organization.  We look forward to seeing results in the field.

Thoughts on Payroll

LG read someplace the Giants payroll target for 2020 is around $140 M.  Now, $140 M is a whole lot of money and quite a bit more than some teams are planning to pay their players, so if that's what the Giants feel they can spend, I should not begrudge them.  It's the rationale that bugs me.  They don't want to get boxed into a corner with more big, longterm contracts.  Again, I don't know what "cap" Giants ownership has given Farhan to work with.  Attendance is down dramatically over the past two seasons.  Spending more money in preceding years has admittedly not resulted in winning and a sold out ballpark.  I have a sneaking suspicion, based on nothing more than suspicion, that perhaps a side project or two may not be progressing as smoothly as drawn up.  Maybe there's a reason why family members of the financial heavy hitters in the ownership group have recently become dramatically more involved?  But all that aside, the Giants are still widely believed to be one of the most financially successful teams in MLB and should be able to afford a payroll close to the CBT target of about $210 M.  So I'm still working with the theorem that the Giants can easily afford whatever the CBT threshold is for a given season.

Now, don't get me wrong.  I'm not suggesting the Giants need to saddle up with a bunch of contracts that get all the way up to the CBT, not just this year but for 5-7 years down the road, but you have to remember their current payroll obligations are not static going forward either.  $140 M is a full $70 M under that target.  On top of that, there is at least another $18 M coming off the books after 2010 and another close to $70 M coming off after 2021 and yet another $13 M after 2022.  I mean, how much payroll flexibility is enough?  Working off the CBT as the "cap", my target for 2020 would be more in the range of $180 M which still gives them $30 M of payroll freedom this year, close to $50 for 2021 and almost unlimited amounts for 2022.

Not that they should spend money just to meet a minimum target, but if there is a player(s) who can help this team now and for 3-5 years into the future, there is no reason to hold back to maintain payroll "flexibility" now or into he future.  Just my opinion.

Hot Stove Update: Pitchers Fly Off Shelves

Each Hot Stove season has it's own character and rhythm.  Last year it seemed like forever before the first major signing took place and several big names remained on the market into February and even beyond.  This year the pace has picked up a lot earlier with pitchers leading the way.  The biggest signing today was Zack Wheeler going to the Phillies on a 5 year/$118 M contract.  That's a long contract for a lot of money for a pitcher with a pretty extensive injury history.  On the other hand, after missing all of 2015 and 2016 and only pitching 86 innings in 2017, the Giants former first round draft pick has turned in two solid seasons of 182 and 195 IP with sub-4.00 ERA's.  As long as he stays healthy, Wheeler should be a solid addition to the Phillies rotation.

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Veteran Cole Hamels signed a 1 year/$18 M contract with the Braves.  Hamels is 36 years old and not the dominating pitcher he once was, but recorded a 3.81 ERA in 141.2 IP last season for the Cubs.  Hamels was reportedly offered 2-year deals but went against the grain and preferred to go 1 year at a time.  Also interestingly, the Giants were rumored to be in on him and actually in serious contention to sign him until the end.

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The Zack Wheeler contract may have set the market for Madison Bumgarner who seems to be in demand by several teams and also seems virtually assured of landing at least a $100 M deal.  There is a report out there that he wants to stay with the Giants but the Giants have already moved on, which is certainly the sense you get from the whole Giants vibe right now.  If I was the Giants GM, would I go for a 5 year/$100 M deal for Bumgarner?  That's $20 M AAV.  Yes, I would do that and double down by trying to add Gerrit Cole too!

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The Angels traded 4 minor league pitchers for RHP Dylan Bundy.  Bundy has settled into a solid innings-eating role and his numbers should benefit from moving out of Camden Yards and the AL East.  He is arbitration eligible this year and next before free agency.

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The Giants hired former MLB pitcher Brian Bannister to be Director of Pitching.  Bannister has been the Red Sox Vice President of Pitching Development for the past several years, but got let go in a reorganization.  If I remember correctly, Bannister was one of the early advocates for incorporating analytics into his own approach to pitching during his playing career.  He is the son of former MLB LHP Floyd Bannister.  Brian was born in Scottsdale, Arizona and pitched college ball at USC, but lives in the Bay Area.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: JT Ginn

J.T.  Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).  6'2", 200 lbs.

2019:  8-4, 3.13, 86.1 IP, 19 BB, 105 K.

Draft eligible sophomore.  Did not sign with the Dodgers after being drafted #30 overall in the 2019 draft.  Physically mature.  Two plus pitches:  A mid-90's FB with command and a "wipeout" slider.  Ceiling limited due to physical maturity, but may have the highest floor of any draft prospect pitcher we've profiled so far due to command and strength of college competition.  This type of pitcher tends to rise on boards late in the draft cycle as teams retreat to safety in the first round.  Draft eligible sophs obviously have more signing leverage so drafting teams will have to plan on full slot bonus.

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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2. Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St.).
3. Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4.  Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5.  Zac Veen OF, HS.
6.  Robert Hassell OF, HS.
7.  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
8.  J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
9.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
10. Mick Abel RHP, HS.
11.  Austin Hendrick OF, HS.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Free Agent Pitcher

So, the good news is the Giants signed a free agent left-handed pitcher today.  The bad news is he was only a free agent because they did not tender him a contract yesterday.  How's that?  Some of us were scratching our heads yesterday wondering why Farhan non-tendered LHP Tyler Anderson after claiming him off waivers from the Rockies.  I'm sure if you dig deep enough into the intricacies of waiver claims and the arbitration process there is a perfectly logical explanation for the entire sequence of events.  The simple answer is apparently Anderson was willing to agree to a contract presumably for a significantly lower amount than the $2.1 MLBTR projected him to get in arbitration.  Why this was not announced until after the non-tender became official, we may never know.  I'll guess negotiations came down to the wire and they just did not have time to work out the details before the tender deadline.

I wrote something up on Tyler Anderson after the Giants picked him off waivers.  He's a guy who I think has a decent shot at a bounceback season, especially given a change of scenery from Coors Field to Oracle Park.  In addition, he's coming off surgery on a knee that was bothering him last year. That is worth the risk of a very small MLB guaranteed salary.  If it doesn't work out, the monetary risk is minimal.  If it does, I could see Anderson becoming a solid #4 SP in the rotation or a lefty reliever capable of going multiple innings at a time.  If the Giants stay in contention through the season, great.  If not, I could see him bringing back a nice prospect a la Drew Pomeranz.

Again, I don't understand all the machinations, but in the end, Farhan got the result I hoped for so we'll give him a thumbs up on this one.