DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #6 Rayner Arias

Rayner Arias OF.  DOB:  4/29/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 185 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent Jan. 2023.

2023(DSL):  .414/539/.793, 6 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 4 SB, 19.7 BB%, 14.5 K%, 76 PA.

2024(ACL):  .250/.371/.364, 3 SB, 8 2B, 3B, 3 SB, 11.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 105 PA.

Another upside play here.  Arias was one of the most highly ranked latin american prospects in the 2023 signing cycle and got a $2.7 M signing bonus.  He got off to a blazing start in the DSL and then, as with too many Giants international bonus babies, disaster struck.  His name disappeared from the boxscores and we later learned he suffered a wrist injury which ended his season.  He either had setbacks or a new injury and got a very late start on the 2024 season.  While his 2024 numbers are not terrible, they were not up to the expectations set with his DSL performance albeit in a small sample.  

Were it not for concerns with ongoing injury and lost development time Arias might well be ranked #1 on my list but I still have high hopes for him.  He should start 2025 with A San Jose Giants and needs a full healthy season to get his pro career back on track.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #7 Walker Martin

Walker Martin SS.  DOB:  2/20/2004.  B-L, T- R.  6' 2", 188 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 2.

2024(ACL):  .229/.413/.382, 6 HR, 4 SB, 21.2 BB%,  37.6 K%, 189 PA.

2024(A):  .202/.358/.333, 3 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 17.1 BB%, 46.3 K%, 123 PA.

Martin is purely an upside play here.  He's got great size and athleticism as a former 2-sport star in HS.  He's behind the curve development-wise due to lack of strong competition in HS and a late start to his pro-career apparently due to injury.  So far a high walk rate is negated by an astronomical K rate which limits his game power due to extremely low contact rates.  The upside is he still has 3 years of development before he must be added to the 40-man roster or exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #8 Carson Whisenhunt

Carson Whisenhunt LHP.  DOB:  10/20/2000.  6' 3", 209 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 2.  

2024(A):  0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 5.40 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  3-5, 5.42, 104.2 IP, 11.61 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 4.58 xFIP.

The Whiz features what some analysts call the best changeup in all of baseball and Fangraphs rates as an 80 pitch.  His fastball has enough velocity(92-94 touching 96) to set it up but the FB sometimes lacks life and command.  He also has an average-ish slider to give him a 3-pitch mix but the changeup is his dominant pitch.  He missed much of the 2023 season with an elbow sprain but was mostly healthy in 2024.  As with many pitchers he struggled with the pitcher-unfriendly ballparks and tight strike zone in the PCL.  Projection systems like him and forecast an ERA in the mid-3's at the MLB level.  Reading his scouting reports reminds me of how awesome Noah Lowry's changeup was before he lost the feel for it due to a nerve injury.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Make Minor Trade And A Minor League Deal

The Giants today acquired Osleivis Basabe IF from the Rays for cash.  The Rays DFA'd Basabe earlier in the week:

Osleivis Basabe IF.  DOB:  9/13/2000.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 165 lbs.  

2023(AAA):  .296/.351/.426, 4 HR, 16 SB, 7.3 BB%, 15.5 K%, 426 PA.

2023(MLB):  .218/.277/.310, HR, 6.4 BB%, 26.6 K%, 94 PA.

2024(FCL):  .270/.404/.541, 2 HR, 2 SB, 19.1 BB%, 2.1 K%, 47 PA.

2024(AAA):  .248/.293/.336, 5 HR, 4 SB, 4.9 BB%, 18.0 K%, 330 PA.

Basabe is a longtime minor leaguer since originally signed as an international free agent in 2018 by the Rangers.  He was acquired by the Rays in 2020 by trade and as recently as 2023 was listed in Rays top 10 prospects lists.  Basabe is rated as a solid defensive player who can hold down SS.  He's put up decent offensive numbers in the minors but his swing-heavy approach may not hold up at the MLB level a la Casey Schmitt.  Basabe will joint the competition and depth chart for reserve MI.  He has one option year.  Oh, and he is Luis Matos' cousin as almost everybody seems to be.  Also cousin for Forever Giant Alexander Basabe.

The Giants also signed Lou Trivino RHP to a minor league deal.  Trivino last pitched in the majors in 2022 and has battled injuries since.  He recently had a throwing session for scouts which the Giants attended.  Bob Melvin managed Trivino in Oakland where he was a serious reliever and racked up 22 Saves in 2021.

Blast From The Past: A Look Back At The 2010 Opening Day Roster

 I am thinking about writing a book about the 2010 Giants and was looking back at some of my posts from early in that season.  Other than Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, I find it almost shocking how bad that Opening Day roster was.  So here is part of my NL West Preview post from April 4, 2010(it's archived to the left if you want to read the entire post):

San Francisco Giants:

Lineup

CF Aaron Rowand
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
LF Mark DeRosa
C Bengie Molina
2B Juan Uribe
RF Nate Schierholtz

Bench

John Bowker, Andres Torres, Eugenio Velez, Eli Whiteside, Travis Ishikawa

Rotation

Tim Lincecum
Barry Zito
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Todd Wellemeyer

Bullpen

Brian Wilson(closer), Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Brandon Medders, Dan Runzler, Waldis Joaquin, Guillermo Mota(likely).

DL Freddy Sanchez

Summary: The Giants have the worst lineup in the division, by far. The question is whether it is enough less bad than last year to support the pitching into the playoffs. Sandoval could be a superstar, but has to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Schierholtz could emerge as a solid hitter, but might not even keep his job all season, heck, he might not even be the starting RF on opening day! If every hitter in the lineup has at least a career average year, it just might be good enough. That's a fairly long bet though. The pitching staff is the best in the division if not in all of baseball. We all know about LIncecum and Cain, but Sanchez is poised to be every bit as good if he can just stay within himself and keep the walks down. Zito is an innings eater. He needs to at least equal last year's performance and Wellemeyer has to be a steady #5 but it's a very nice rotation. Wilson is an established closer now with Affeldt a solid setup man. Runzler and Joaquin both have shutdown stuff. It's the best bullpen in the division too.

Predictions

1. San Francisco Giants!
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

This is an underrated division and the top 4 teams are really very close. They say pitching is 70% of the game. If that is true, the Giants have by far the best pitching in the division, and will overcome a bad hitting lineup that will be marginally improved from last year. Every team except the Padres has a legitimate case to be #1, but each team needs a lot of things to break right to win.

(Current Comments):  John Bowker started in RF on Opening Day.  I forgot Todd Wellemeyer was the #5 SP.  He was long gone by the end of the season.  Bengie Molina was traded to make room for Buster.  Bumgarner came up and replace Wellemeyer and was great.  Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe far exceeded expectations as did Andres Torres who had his one and only good season. Sabes bolstered the team with some savvy midseason acquisitions including Pat Burrell and Cody Ross.  I think that was the year he brought in Javy Lopez too.  Barry Zito had a terrible season and was infamously left off the postseason roster.  Rowand was terrible and I don't think Pablo had a particularly good season either.  Ironically the Padres proved to be the biggest challenge to a division championship. I think it came down to the final game of the season or close to it.

What do you think of this roster and my predictions?  I dare you to tell me with a straight face there was any reason to think this team could win the World Series.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #9 Carson Ragsdale

Carson Ragsdale RHP.  DOB:  5/25/1998.  6' 8", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2020 Round 4(Phillies).

2024(AA):  3-3, 3.49, 67 IP, 12.09 K/9, 4.16 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  2-4, 5.03, 53.2 IP, 9.56 K/9, 4.36 BB/9.  

 Carson Ragsdale is a guy I followed before the 2020 draft because I am always intrigued by tall pitchers and he's tall at 6' 8".   I was obviously happy when the Giants got him from the Phillies for Sam Coonrod.  Memba him? Unfortunately Ragsdale ran into injury issues.  He missed all of 2022 after undergoing surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and then most of 2023 with an elbow injury.  He was healthy in 2024 and pitched well in AA.  He struggled in AAA which is not unusual.  In addition to several extremely hitter-friendly ballparks, the PCL uses electronics to enforce a reduced strike zone.  Just an extremely tough league for pitchers.  He did have one memorable 11 K performance in August 2024.  He was added to the 40-man roster in November and has 3 option years.  He'll most likely start 2025 back in Sacramento and hope for an MLB opportunity.

Hot Stove League Update: Alonso Finally Signs With Mets And Gets A Haircut

Well, we can finally stop debating about whether the Giants should sign Pete Alonso.  He is finally, officially going back to the Mets for a a little over half of what he turned down in the past.  The deal is what we've come to expect from Scott Boras clients after he's badly misread the market:  2 yr/$54 M.  It includes $10 M signing bonus and a player option for 2026.  He reportedly will make $30 M in 2025.  Here's where the numbers don't completely add up.  MLBTR reports the player option would be for $24 M but $30 M + $24 M + $10 M = $64 M.  So, we'll need some clarification on this.

That's probably a reasonable price for Alonso but would not fit into the Giant payroll structure due to the QO hit, CBT tax hit and the hated opt-out, although again, the front-loading of the contract makes the opt-out a bit more palatable.  Again, I am excited to see what Juan Encarnacion, Luis Matos and Marco Luciano can do with their opportunities in 2025.

I think it's worth mentioning that this is the second year in a row where Scott Boras appeared to misjudge the market on not just one, but several players.  Last year it was the "Boras Four". This year's it's the Boras Three", Jack Flaherty, Alonso and Alex Bregman(in fairness, we don't know what Bregman will ultimately get but with less than 10 days before spring training camps open, his market is not looking great).  For Alonso's part, he once turned down a $100 M extension a year ago and Jon Heyman reports he turned down a 3 yr/$71 M deal earlier this offseason.  That was a bigger guarantee but the current contract holds open the possibility that he could ultimately make more than $71 M over the next 3 seasons.