DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #10 Carson Seymour

Carson Seymour RHP.  DOB:  12/16/1998.  6' 6", 260 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 6(Mets).

2024(AA):  7-10, 4.82, 134.1 IP, 8.84 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 2.04 GB/FB. 

We are into the top 10 and starting a run of Carsons.  Carson Seymour has a chance to end up as the centerpiece of the 2022 trade that sent Darin Ruf to the Mets for J. D. Davis 3B, Thomas Szapucki LHP, Seymour and Nick Zwack LHP.  Zwack is still listed on the AA Richmond roster. Szapucki elected free agency in Nov 2024.  Seymour is a jumbo-size RHP who with a classic sinker-slider, 2-pitch mix and relies on dominant groundball ratios.  Fangraphs lists his FB velocity at 94.5 MPH(his 4-seamer is half a tick higher but he rarely throws it).  His secondary pitch is a slider that Fangraphs grades as a 70.  There is a strong trend away from pitcher who pound the zone with sinkers in the launch-angle era and you generally want to see a viable third pitch from starting pitchers so Seymour has those headwinds to overcome.  He was added to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, but will likely start the season in AAA Sacramento.  As an aside, every time I see his name I am reminded of the sea lion named Seymour who did a stunt show at Sea World when my kids were young.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #11 Mason Black

Mason Black RHP.  DOB:  12/10/1999.  6' 3", 230 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 3.

2024(AAA):  5-6, 4.59, 84.1 IP, 9.28 K/9, 4.16 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  1-5, 6.44, 36.1 IP, 7.68 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

Black had a rough introduction to the major leagues in 2024 but did have a couple of really good starts.  Looking at his pitch selection and values on Fangraphs, he was exclusively sinker-slider in 2023 and added a 4 seam FB in 2024 which produced a pitch mix of 1/3 each 4-seam, sinker, slider.  Interestingly the 4-seam was his least effective pitch.  His average velocity for both the 4-seam and sinker were about 92.5 MPH.  He also threw a changeup but less than 5% of pitches.  Projections like him a lot better for 2025 with ERA's in the mid-4's.  Look for him to tweak his pitch mix in spring training and start the season on AAA.  He still has 2 options years.  He may need to develop the changeup more if he wants to remain a SP.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #12 Diego Velasquez

Diego Velasquez SS/2B.  DOB:  10/1/2003.  B-S, T-R.  6' 1", 150 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent Jan 2021.

2024(A+):  .274/.357/.389, 16 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 18 SB, 10.1 BB%, 17.0 K%, 318 PA.

2024(AA):  .313/.389/.374, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 9.4 BB%, 17.1 K%, 170 PA.

Before we get started with our profile, I saw Velasquez play for the A San Jose Giants in 2023 and let's just say he doesn't weigh 150 lbs.  Velasquez signed a $900 K bonus in 2021.  He was immediately assigned to the Arizona complex.  His numbers for his first two pro seasons were not impressive but in 2023 he batted .298 with 8 HR over a full season with A level San Jose at age 19.  He moved up to A+ for his age 20 season and put up similar numbers and got a mid-late season promotion to AA where he hit .312.  Now, AA Richmond and Norwich before that have a long history of dashing the dreams of many Giants hitting prospects so I am impressed with a switch-hitting middle infielder who bats .312 there.

Velasquez is a prospect you don't hear much chatter about. The raps on him are he looks a bit chunky for a shortstop and he doesn't hit for enough power for a lesser defensive position.  He's still young, though with plenty of time for power to come.  Unfortunately he will run into the now-familiar dilemma for international prospects in that he will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft after his age 21 season.  I would think he will start this season back in AA Richmond but should be somewhere on the Giants middle-infield depth chart for a potential call up although things would have to go far south for that development. 

Hot Stove League Update: Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty RHP who many analysts and fans thought would make a nice addition to the Giants starting rotation signed with the Tigers, the team he started the 2024 season with, for 2 years/$35 M.  The contract is heavily frontloaded with $25 M coming in 2025 and just $10 M guaranteed for 2026.  It does contain and opt-out after the first season and the 2026 salary escalates to $20 M if he makes at least 15 starts in 2025.  

Because of the way the contract is frontloaded, it is a little less onerous than most opt-out contracts.  Best case scenario for the Tigers is he pitches like an ace again, and it ends up being a 1 years contract for $25 M or they could even trade him at the deadline again and get even more young talent in return.  Worst case scenario is he is a complete bust and/or gets hurt and he comes back for $10 M next season.  Not so great would be if he pitches exactly 15 games and they have to pay $20 M in 2026 for a player you would not ordinarily offer that much for.

You may be thinking that in spite of the opt-out, this isn't such a terrible deal from a team perspective and why didn't the Giants sign him.  Well, a week ago Flaherty was on a podcast where he said he loved pitching for the Tigers, didn't want to be traded at the deadline and would love to go back so most likely he would not have take this deal from the Giants even if Buster Posey relented on his reported vow to just say no to opt-outs.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #13 Lisbel Diaz

Lisbel Diaz OF.  DOB:  7/19/2005.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 201 lbs.  International Amateur Free Agent July 2023(Cuba).

2023(DSL):  .312/.386/.455, 3 HR, 8.0 BB%, 11.4 K%, 88 PA.

2024(ACL):  .329/.411/.539, 4 2B, 4 HR, 8.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 90 PA.

2024(A):  .279/.333/.433, 12 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 5.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, 255 PA.

If there is one prospect I think I may have too low on my Top 50 Giants Prospects list, it's Lisbel Diaz.  Young for level contact hitter with emerging power.  Might need to tone down aggression at the plate and needs to get more balls in the air, but he has 3 years of development before Rule 5 eligibility and is likely to play at A+ at age 19 so has plenty of time to work on these issues.  His big test will come at AA where he probably won't play until 2026 but don't bet against him forcing a promotion this season.  Highlight of 2024 season was a 5-hit game 8/25.

Hot Stove League Update: Does Buster Posey Have Zero Tolerance For Opt-Outs?

There is an article up on Fansided.com authored by someone named Zachary Rotman who quotes former GM Jim Bowden from a podcast called Foul Territory.  Here is the Bowden quote:  "Buster Posey is completely opposed to opt-outs.  He does not want them.  That's a real, philosophical, in-cement viewpoint that he has right now in his first year running the Giants."

I wish I had a more reliable source for this but it does fit with the tea leaves I am reading, so am not at all surprised.  Since Scott Boras seems to insist on opt-outs for almost all of his free agent contracts and since a high percentage of top-talent free agents are Scott Boras clients, this may play a bigger role in the Giants relative lack of free agent activity than penurious owners or negative player perceptions of the organization. 

BTW, if this is truly Buster Posey's position, I fully support it.  IMO, opt-outs are a big reason why the Giants as an organization failed to gain traction in the FZ era.

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #14 Wade Meckler

Wade Meckler OF.  DOB:  4/21/2000.  B-L, T-R.  5' 10", 178 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 8.

2024(ACL):  .228/.343/.263, 5 SB, 13.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 67 PA.

2024(A):  .235/.339/.314, HR, 13.6 BB%, 16.9 K%, 59 PA.

2024(A+):  .429/.526/.500, SB, 21.1 BB%, 15.8 K%, 19 PA.

2024(AA):  .324/.405/.378, 11.9 BB%, 23.9 K%, 42 PA.

2024(AAA):  .280/.366/.423, 8 HR, 3 SB, 9.7 BB%, 12.8 K%, 196 PA.

Meckler is a good athlete but physically small.  Great hit tool but lacking in power coming out of college.  He rocketed through the system in 2023 and got rushed up to the majors and was physically overwhelmed by MLB pltching.  He worked on getting stronger but got a late start to the 2024 season and missed time due to injury in June and spent most of the season rehabbing in the lower minors.  He finally got back to AAA on 8/1.  Then something interesting happened.  The stronger version of himself showed up and he hit 8 HR's over his next 44 games.  So, if you add significant power to his already excellent contact skills and plate discipline, you have a pretty exciting hitter.  

Meckler is part of a logjam of young players who FZ rushed through the system.  A big part of Buster's initial challenge is to sort out which of those players are part of the Giants future core and which aren't.  I hope Meckler gets another shot at MLB PA's at some point but probably starts 2025 in AAA.