Let's take a break from grinding through the Giants Minor League Season Reviews and Depth Charts and dream a little. As you may have noticed, I haven't had much to say about the postseason since the mission of this blog is to chronicle my thoughts on Giants baseball and the Giants aren't in the postseason! I have been half-heartedly watching the games, though, and a couple of things are striking to me: 1. The talent gap between the Dodgers and Yankees and everybody else but especially between them and the Giants. Hint: It's not narrow! 2. Almost every postseason team has a Hall of Fame level hitter in in their lineup and several of them have two or even three.
Which brings us to Juan Soto who will be a free agent in less than 3 weeks. Juan Soto is one of those Hall of Fame level hitters that the Giants currently don't have. The conventional wisdom is the Giants have zero chance of signing Juan Soto for several reasons: He's had a taste of playing in New York for the Yankees, the Giants recent track record of futility signing big name free agents, Oracle Park. What? Not so fast? A beat writer for the San Francisco Chronicle wrote yesterday that the Giants have an inkling that the Yankees and Dodgers may not be his dream situation, that he might want to be THE guy to lead another team. Not sure where this inkling might be coming from but Bob Melvin was his manager for 1+ seasons with the Padres.
That got me thinking. What would it take for the Giants to convince Juan Soto to come join the legacies of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds and, ahem, Buster Posey? And if such a thing is possible, is it something the Giants should do? First, a few facts:
1. Juan Soto is a very good ballplayer. In 7 MLB seasons he's already accumulated 36.3 fWAR which averages out to a little over 5 per season. He's already had at least 3 seasons with fWAR of at least 6.0.
2. Soto is coming off his best season with 8.1 fWAR and has 14.1 over his last two seasons.
3. Soto won't turn 26 years old until next week. Think about that! He's a 7 year veteran and is just finishing his age 25 season meaning he probably has not had his peak season(s) yet. For comps sake, Aaron Judge signed his 9 yr/$360 M contract after his age 30 season. Shohei Ohtani signed his 10 yr/$700 M* contract after his age 28 season. *most of Ohtani's money is deferred making his AAV for "luxury tax" purposes $47 M.
4. Oracle Park is the hardest park in all of MLB to hit HR's in. It's Park Factor for HR's is 0.78 compared to Yankee Stadium's 1.19. There's a reason why star hitters don't want to play half their games in Oracle Park especially if they think they will want/need to sign a future contract. But what if it's the last contract they will ever sign as players? Hmm......
Big Question: Should the Giants offer Juan Soto 15 yr/$600 M, no deferred money, no opt-outs.(that's an AAV of $40 M, same as Judge but for 6 years longer, less AAV than Ohtani but for 5 years longer playing time and about $150 M more than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted total)? Corollary Question: Would Soto accept such a deal? Corollary Question: What about offering an option to buy into the ownership group at retirement? Would that change the amount money Soto would accept in the contract or would a perk of that magnitude be required over and above?
Share and support your answers in the Comments.
Does he know Bonds? Should the Giants assign BB-25 as an Ambassador to Juan Soto?
ReplyDeleteWhatever it takes! Roll the dice!
ReplyDeleteSay, Juan, do you want to be 2nd Fiddle to Captain Judge into the next decade or do you want to be The Man?
We will build the team around you, do you want to bring along any of the 6 (or 7 or 8 or 9 depending on options) Yankee Free Agents?
Do you want to be help us get any other Free Agent?
Do you like Barry? He can be Your Man!
Yes, for those LHBs not named Barry Bonds, Oracle is a tough place to hit HRs, BUT that great big wall is not that far, at 309 feet down the line, it is the shortest distance in the National League and second only to Fenway (straight down the line only, Fenway right field distance increases rapidly).
ReplyDeleteA lot of fly ball outs will become doubles. And if YtY can hit 9 triples in 428 ABs, how many can Soto hit?
What about front loading the contract and giving a player opt out after 5 (or so) years?
Hire Jean Afterman to be GM.
ReplyDeleteFYI for those who don't know, Jean Afterman is the assistant GM of the Yankees.
DeleteAnd a woman!
DeleteDoes Soto "like" Melvin? If not, who would he like? Wanna be Player Manager? If not now, later?
ReplyDeleteWas wondering if Soto would make it in to a serious topic on this site- not saying it should or shouldn’t have, just an interesting player to discuss given the failure to sign top level talent the last few years. It seems Judge and Ohtani were never coming here, there’s just too many opportunities outside of day to day baseball that had to play a role in to their decision. Is Soto any different in terms of “availability?”
ReplyDeleteI would think that it’s in Soto’s best long term interest to stay in New York. Unless Judge turns in to Bonds, Soto is probably 3 years away from being THE guy for that team. I’d say if the money won’t hinder Posey from fielding complementary pieces- like a Chapman, go for it!
Yeah, Doc, your observations echo my thoughts the last few years, the top teams are doing all the analytical stuff to cover complementary needs but are also coveting game changing players that just seem to have an extra gear. I’ve coached youth ball for a long time, there are some that are so in tune with their bodies they can not only do it all, they WANT to do it all. Unfortunately, for the Giants, there are less of those players than there are teams.
Is there anything to the internet chatter that Melvin and Soto don’t exactly line up?
Rob in Vancouver
Do whatever it takes! Why not move the fences in a bit … they did it a few years ago? Still, I’m still not getting my hopes up … I thought Soto loved playing in a city with such a large Dominican community.
ReplyDeleteSome will say even bringing this up is a waste of energy. Soto isn’t coming and why are we even talking about it? The answer is yes. By any means necessary do whatever it takes to get soto IF……. He really wants to come here.
ReplyDeleteNothing else should matter if he has interest but if he doesn’t then I still think Santander and one of the SS on the market would be a huge impact to the offense as well. It would probably make more sense even but you don’t pass up the chance to sign Soto and if you do then there likely won’t be money for much else.
Maybe the better question is how much are the Giants willing to spend this offseason? It’s at least $600 million if they go after Soto but if not is it way less? They spent over $300 million already between last offseason and Chapmans new deal. What are they prepared to spend if they don’t sign Soto?
Doc, put me under the category > one man does not make a team. I am for spending for to 2 infield positions, 2 more starters and a strong back up catcher.
ReplyDeleteMy impressions of Soto is he is a complete self absorbed individual not a team leader. For what it is worth.
Richard in Winnipeg
Like Judge, the Yankees will cover anything the Giants do.
ReplyDeleteThey have to keep him to keep up with LAD, especially if the Hated Ones win the WS
Given Soto's age and the numbers he has put up, he is a guy that is worth a $600 million to even $650 million. Like many people, I'm pessimisitc about the Giants's chances. Whether he comes to the Giants depends on two questions:
ReplyDelete(1) Under what conditions would he NOT re-sign with the Yankess? There are a lot of reasons he will likely re-sign with the Yankess, including that they can match any offer in terms of money. If Soto doesn't want to re-sign with the Yanks it will be because he doesn't want to play second fiddle to Judge for the next few seasons (or however long Judge is putting up great numbers).
(2) If Soto doesn't want to re-sign with the Yankees, are the Giants a more attractive destination than other likely suitors, like the Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, or Dodgers? Dodgers are out of the running if Soto wants to be "the guy" on a team -- that could also rule out the Mets if Soto feels he would be competing with Lindor. Cubs and Red Sox may be more attractive because they have better ballparks for Soto than the Giants. They are also bigger markets, higher-profile teams, and may be seen as having more upside than the Giants.
The answer to the above questions leads me to believe the Giants' chances to sign Soto aren't great. It will take blowing other teams out of the water financially, a big pitch from Posey and Melvin (and perhaps some current and former Giant greats), and Soto's desire to be "the guy" on a team for it to happen. Not impossible, but not likely, either.
-TK
Soto is the rare player that I would be in favor of giving a 10+ year deal to. I’d even go as far as the 15 year $600,000,000 deal suggested by the Doc. He’s a player I think can have a gravitational effect on the franchise and help convince other desired players to join.
ReplyDelete