Thoughts On The Chase To Beat The Babe

The sad news of the death of Hank Aaron brings back one of my earliest baseball memories and the endlessly fascinating and debatable chase between two baseball greats to break Babe Ruth's legendary career home run record of 714.  Living in Northern California and listening to Russ Hodges and Lon Simmons count down Willie Mays' home run milestones made be a passionate Mays fan and feel like Aaron was a rival to be feared and a bit envious of.  I have to confess I have spent most of my life thinking at the very least Mays should been first to pass The Babe if not the guy who ended up with the all-time record.  

In memory and respect for everything Hank Aaron accomplished in his incredible career, I present my argument for Mays.  It's really the same argument hundreds or even thousands of others have made but it's worth reviewing it again here.  

Mays was 3 years older than Aaron and broke into MLB 3 years earlier, so was always 3 years ahead of Aaron in age. They both broke in at age 20 and both retired after their age 42 seasons.  Beyond that, there were two major differences in their career arcs:  1.  Mays had to miss most of his second and all of his third MLB seasons serving in the Army while Aaron did not have to serve at all.  2. Aaron went on a remarkable tear after his age 35 season while Mays' numbers dropped off dramatically after passing that age milestone.  The other major comparative factor was in their respective home ballparks but that impact is much more difficult to quantify.

As we all know, Mays broke into MLB at age 20 in 1951.  He hit 20 HR's in 121 games and 524 PA's. He reported for army duty after 34 games of the 1952 season after hitting 4 more HR's.  The knowledge of his impending induction had to weigh on his mind.  After two years of army service and not playing at all, Mays rolled out of bed in 1954 with a stupendous season in which he hit .345 with 41 HR's.  I figure a conservative estimate of Mays lost HR's during that time is 60 and possibly as many as 75-80.  60 additional HR's would put him at 720, 6 more than The Babe.  Since Mays retired after the 1973 season and Aaron hit #715 in 1974, Mays would have passed The Babe first with just those two lost years added back.

By all accounts I've read, Mays took excellent care of his body.  He was neither a smoker nor drinker and didn't have a reputation for burning the candle at both ends.  Still, Aaron's body clearly held up better late in his career.  While that may not have been due to anything he did or did not do, he still deserves that credit.  Mays age 35 season was 1966 in which he hit 38 HR's.  After that the dropoff was dramatic.  He hit 118 HR's over his last 7 seasons.  Aaron's age 35 season was 1969.  He then went on an incredible 4-year tear with 38, 47, 34 and 40 HR's and ended up hitting 201 over his final 7 seasons.  Simply amazing!

Park factors are more difficult to quantify but I believe almost everyone believes Aaron benefitted from playing his home games in Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium which was a bandbox if there ever was one, while Mays production was harmed by playing in Candlestick Park which often had a howling wind blowing out to right field which made it almost impossible for a RH batter to hit one out to LF late in day games or in night games.  Again, hard to quantify, but I have strong recollections of hearing Russ and Lon describe long drives to left field by Mays that got blown out to left-center and get easily caught by the centerfielder.  

I should add that Aaron likely had to deal with more virulent and outright racism with personal threats than Mays due to playing his home games in the deep South.  Again, very hard to quantify the effect, if any that had on his numbers, but still worth noting.

Put that all together and I firmly believe that given a level playing field Mays would have been the first to pass The Babe and he would have ended up with a HR total very close to Aaron.

Based on what I've read, Willie Mays does not lose sleep over it which leads me to believe I should not either.  They were both top 5 players of all time and their greatness transcended numbers.  I am blessed to witness their greatness while a kid learning to love the game, especially with Mays playing for the team I came to root for thanks to where my parents happened to live at the time.

Hank Aaron RIP.