Yesterday's game between the Giants and Padres was postponed as was today's game due to a positive COVID test for a Giants player.
This is just a reminder the SARS 2 Coronavirus is still very much active in our communities. The fundamentals of the Pandemic remain exactly the same as from the beginning. The SARS 2 Coronavirus is a new or novel virus for which humans have not developed immunity. It is spread through respiratory droplets. It is approximately twice as contagious as seasonal influenza. It is approximately 100 times as deadly as seasonal influenza. It has an approximately 6 day incubation period. Infected individuals can transmit the disease while not exhibiting symptoms. On average, the time from onset of symptoms to peak death rate is approximately 10 days. Given these facts, no subsequent development in the pandemic is even slightly surprising or unpredictable.
Here are just a few more facts regarding the SARS 2 Coronavirus:
To date, there have been almost 6.5 million confirmed cases in the U.S.
To date, there have been over 193, 000 deaths in the U.S.
The Case Fatality Ratio from known cases in the U.S is approximately 3%(There may be as many as 10 times as many cases in the U.S. as are known, but also likely at least 1.5-2.0 times as many deaths).
There were approximately 1200 deaths yesterday in the U.S.
So far, there have been over 250, 000 cases attributable to a single mass gathering which occurred approximately 2 weeks ago.
There has been approximately a 125% rise in the number of new cases in the state that hosted this event.
If you test positive for the novel coronavirus, you are twice as likely to have eaten in a restaurant within the past 14 days.
The most common cause of outbreaks in San Bernardino County(CA) is family gatherings.
I know the readership of this site understands numbers and how to interpret data. I will let readers absorb the above facts and draw their own conclusions.
Stay smart and stay safe!
Dr. B., US. confirmed cases are about 6.5M. You hav e a typo there.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone wants to see more numbers, this is a reliable source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Also, I hear arguments about how Covid + existing condition deaths should be counted. While I do not agree with this argument, it may help that the number of excess deaths are over 200,000.
This is killing people and unfortunately we should do more than doing the right thing ourselves, we need to convince others to follow health guidelines.
Fixed. Thanks.
DeleteExcess deaths is how death rates for seasonal influenza have always been counted, so it's not a novel approach.
Great post. Given the trends of society this year, it was probably inevitable to have some postponement of the Giants' season due to illness. What is more surprising or unpredictable has been our governmental & societal responses to this pandemic. In addition, COVID-19 appears to be manifesting disease in unpredictable patterns, with a fair amount of chronic symptom burden in those that do recover.
ReplyDeleteI believe the number on confirmed cases in the US is closer to 6.5 mill, which was likely just a typo.
If we have downtime, I'd love to hear the thoughts of the group about Minor League baseball restructuring (downsizing), or opinions about computerized Ball/Strike calling in MLB.
In the 1918 inluenza pandemic, at least half of the deaths were in relatively young healthy people(again, more males) due to overwhelming inflammatory response so even that has not been all that surprising to people familiar with the history of viral pandemics.
DeleteJust my opinion I guess, but very little of this pandemic has come as any kind of a surprise and there is no excuse for us to to be this unprepared and this divided and dysfunctional in our response. While there is no "magic bullet" or any way to totally prevent significant loss of life, countries who embraced the science and acted accordingly have fared much better.
Leak is it's Dickerson.
ReplyDeleteWill Basabe get some LH ABs? Ruf's career against RHP is bleak although this year he's 6-17 with a 2B & a HR
Looks like it was a false positive test as retesting of the affected person and the entire Giants and Padres teams yielded no positive results. Doubleheader today.
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