Friday, January 18, 2019

Hot Stove Update: Reliever Market Moving. Giants Stay on Sidelines

The Yankees rounded out their Greatest Bullpen of All Time with the signing of Adam Ottavino to a 3 yr/$27 M contract.  Ottavino has pitched most of his career for the Rockies with mixed success and will be moving to another extremely hitter-friendly environment.  Last year was one of his best seasons running up a 2.43 ERA in 77.2 IP and a K/9 of 13.0.  His BB/9's of 6.6 and 4.2 in 2017 and 2018 respectively may be a cause for concern going forward.  The Giants have not been in the market for a high end reliever this Hot Stove season so this signing has very little impact on them except it takes Ottavino out of the NL West.

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The Angels signed former Indians Closer, Cody Allen, to 1 yr/$8.5 M contract with $2.5 M of additional money available depending on number of games finished.  Allen is coming off a down season in which he still saved 27 games but had a high ERA of 4.70 and his average FB velocity dipped by approximately 1 MPH.  He's looking to rebound for a bigger payday next season.  Again, the Giants were never a factor in this market.

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Speaking of the Giants, there was a blip on their radar yesterday as the Sonny Gray rumors heated up.  Gray is widely believed to be pursued by multiple teams with the Giants being brought into the discussion.  Oracle Park would be a perfect place for Gray to try to get his career moving again and the Giants need to add at least 1 more veteran SP, so this rumor could have legs.  I think Gray is a great bounceback candidate, but there's enough risk here that I would not want to see the Giants give up much.  Gray recently agreed to a $7.5 M contract to avoid arbitration.

24 comments:

  1. Giants on Sonny Gray: would one of the two players they received from the Yankees last year for the McCutchen rental, Juan De Paula or Abiatal Avelino, be enough?

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  2. Unless he face plants miserably in ST, Giants need to hold tight to Travis Bergen: the cupboard is pretty bare of LHP's

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  3. Holland signed for $7.0M (includes $500K buyout).
    Sonny Gray signed for $7.5M settling his last year of arbitration.
    Fairly similar pitchers, probably a nod to Gray.
    Anyone other than the Giants who is interested in trading for Gray passed on Holland who came for "free" as far as giving up a player.
    They wouldn't be offering much, would they?
    If Samardzija is OK (Big IF?), who would Gray push out of the rotation, Suarez? Or is he insurance for Shark, D-Rod, and Suarez? Is $7.5M and a player a steep insurance policy?
    Could be 4 lefties in the rotation...

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  4. if they acquire gray, i see suarez starting the season in sacramento since he has options.

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  5. How does Belt's partial NTC clause work - I understand he has to name 10 teams that he won't accept, but he can change the list every year - is there any public knowledge of the declare-by date and/or teams on that list? Would he go to the Yankees, for example...

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  6. If the team is set with Bum, Stratton, suarez, Rodriguez, and Holland, then why get Gray? The players who had their first real exposure last season should only get better while pitching this season. Add in that Shark might be back and Cueto will be back later. Why waste anything on Gray?

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    1. Because Stratton ain't Gray!
      Because Shark MAY not be back.
      Because Cueto MAY be back.
      Because D-Rod MAY regress.
      Because Holland MAY not repeat.
      Because Bum MAY stick his bare hand out to grab a line drive or ride a dirt bike or sky dive.
      Because the Giants still won't get runs home so they need the best pitching they can get!

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  7. OT: Longoria made public comments about stagnant or lackluster market for free agents - picked up by national wires. Player strike looming in 2021?
    https://www.yahoo.com/sports/evan-longoria-says-free-agents-devalued-shame-many-still-available-201237757.html

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    1. OMG, Longoria says the players aren't making enough money!
      Laughable for a guy who is so demonstrably overpaid!
      Want more action, Evan? Once a contract is in multi-millions, why not take a place you want to play?
      Who has the ego here, the teams that are trying to put a lineup of injury-prone, aging, pampered millionaires on the field or guys like Grandal for whom close to $60,000,000 GUARANTEED wasn't enough?
      Once you have 5-10 mill in the bank, your set for life. At that point you're just comparing gonads!
      Geez, thank your God if you have one that you have major league ability, then shut up and play!

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    2. yeah I have no sympathy for the players - the cat is out of the bag that most players begin to show rapid decline once they approach 30 years - there are so many cases but can we name just a few names we all recognize? Lincecum, Cain, Pence. How many players have a career year just prior to free agency? Rowand comes to mind and there are many many more. The days of mediocre players receiving Big Multi Year contracts are over. If the MLB player's association wants to strike over the passing of the hehday of Flop Contracts they will damage the sport. Longoria essentially says overpaying for talent makes sense while a study of contracts proves that Contract Busts (guaranteed contracts at that) are all too common.

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    3. I don't have much sympathy for players who are expecting to be paid $30 M/yr for 10 years, but the owners are raking in huge profits. I would like to see a chunk of those profits go into giving minor league players a living wage and reform the arbitration system. The problem is most players do not reach free agency until they are in their early 30's, if they ever make it all all and yes, they are then heading into the downside of their careers and teams are stupid to hand out anything longer than 3-4 year contracts.

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    4. I agree with Dr B - but I think 1-2 year contracts should be the norm for free agents - then they can be offered $ according to their current value, and if they keep it up, they can be offered it again. Another blogger suggested that the best record gets the first draft pick, second-best gets the second, etc. to avoid tanking. It makes some sense, that every team will be loading up to win in the upcoming year and be rewarded if they do. If they fall out of the race there'll be plenty of players on the market for a rebuild next year...

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    5. Longoria, I appreciate your support for you brethren, but brother, mind your own house. The Giants need Longoria to be doing everything possible to slow/reverse your his decline so that he can earn the considerable money he has outstanding.

      But, to Doc's point, it is unfair for owners to be able to suppress what players are paid during their most productive under-30 years, and then not pay them on their decline.

      Players' freedom to work where they wish is restricted from the moment they are drafted. And it continues for the next 10 years. They are not allowed to do what most every other American has the freedom to do: Work where they want. (Usually for the employer who will pay them the highest salary.)

      Why is that MLB, with its Anti-Trust exemptions, gets a monopoly on the business (American professional baseball) and ALSO gets to control the salaries of its workers through their most productive years?

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  8. MLBTR: Reds “Making Progress” Toward Potential Acquisition Of Sonny Gray
    The good news: Zaidi isn't going to overpay!

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    1. Rumor has the Reds giving up their #6 and #7 prospects plus a draft pick for Sonny Gray. Hmm.....yeah, the Giants should pass on trying to top that offer.

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    2. Just Reds #7 (LH 2B Shed Long) and a draft pick and a lesser prospect is what I read - would Panik have been an overpay?

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    3. ...unless you have a ready replacement who is as good or better than Panik.

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    4. Avelino may "rate" lower than Shed Long in hitting and power (Long K's a LOT) but Avelino's far better in the field -- Long is a hitter looking for a position.
      The draft pick trade is a competitive balance #36 in 2019 (bad move for a bad team) which doesn't provide many "stars" although Randy Johnson and Johnny bench are 2 of over 50 picks at #36.
      That a "win" for NY because they get something for someone they don't want, but Gray win the Central for the Reds so what is their "advantage" -- B-I-T-S for 2019?

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  9. There are NO baseball players that make any money for anybody until they reach the big leagues. They cost money.
    They're "underpaid" (except for some hefty bonuses for the FEW) to "labor" while "playing" for about 6 months a year.
    News flash: go to college, get a fall back education, play comm college for 2 years, then if you're good enough, go to a major program, but get at least a PE education so you can teach school if your dreams aren't on track by 22 or 23.
    There are precious FEW Bryce Harpers who are ready before they are well into their 20's.
    Minimum major league salaries are getting close to $600,000 per "year" -- mid-Feb for 6 weeks in Florida or Arizona sunshine, then 6 months for most.
    You can be a nuclear engineer and not ever make $600,000 in 6 months before you're 30 -- IF EVER! And you actually had to learn something in college for many years.
    Do you give up a lot for your chance to cash in? For the guys -- the FEW -- who make it, the rewards are great.
    For those who don't, they got to do something they love from 12 years old.
    For those who languish in the minors for 10 years, they are still young relatively and they have had an unique experience.
    I don't feel sorry for anyone with that much talent who didn't take advantage of learning something in the many half-year's they weren't PLAYING baseball.
    Big rewards are always there for those who work for them, sometimes it is part of a back-up plan.
    You could even become a sports medicine doctor!

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    1. OK, there is a lot wrong with this on many levels:

      1. Many companies have R&D departments which also do not bring in any present money, only costs. The payoff is down the road. Think of the minor leagues as R&D.

      2. Most minor league teams are very profitable for their owners.

      3. Most workers in the "real world" have the option of leaving their company for a better offer at any time. Most minor league ballplayers don't.

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    2. ...and we haven't even talked about MLB's antitrust exemption and the minor league players not being represented by the MLBPA or any other form of collective bargaining.

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    3. I do agree with you that most players who have the academic ability to succeed, which if you include community colleges, is probably most players, they should do that before entering the draft. That option is not open to most international players, though.

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    4. ...remember though. Most baseball scholarships are not "full ride".

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