Prospect Smackdown: Pitching Battle Royale

I think we've all looked at the Giants starting pitching situation as a glass half empty and we may be missing the glass that's half full.  I know I have been quite vocal about the need to add starters in the Hot Stove League and the Giants themselves have said their goal is to add two starting pitchers to give them some pitching depth.  Giants GM Zach Minasian held a Zoom call with beat writers and Alex Pavlovic has a quote which has Minasian perhaps backing off that goal a bit:  "If we can't develop a couple of those, several of those, shame on us. I believe in our developing system and our pitching group.....getting another starter would be great, but is it a total necessity?  I don't think it's a failure if we don't get another starter, but we'll continue to look,"

So who is in this gaggle of young starting pitching Minasian is talking about?  Let's do a pitching prospect smackdown.  As it stands, the Giants have 5 potential starting pitchers on their 40-man roster who still qualify as prospects, meaning they have pitched less than 50 innings at the MLB level.  This does not include young pitchers with limited MLB experience who accumulated more than 50 innings but for various reasons have not established themselves as MLB veterans:  Hayden Birdsong RHP, Tristan Beck RHP and Keaton Winn RHP.  Everybody is forgetting about J. T. Brubaker RHP who was tendered a contract and is awaiting an arbitration hearing.  Let's get to the Prospect Battle Royale:

Trevor McDonald RHP.  DOB:  2/26/2001. 6' 2", 201 lbs.  1 Option.

2025(AAA):  9-9, 5.31, 142.1 IP, 9.11 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 2.03 GB/FB.

2025(MLB):  1-0, 1.80, 15 IP, 8.40 K/9, 1.20 BB/9, 2.30 GB/FB.

I've been a Trevor McDonald fanboy ever since the Giants drafted him out of high school in the 11'th round in 2019 but used draft bonus rules to cobble together an $800 K bonus.  McDonald's development trajectory mirrors Logan Webb's. Both had great sinkers that kept the ball on the ground at dominant levels.  McDonald was electric in three late-season MLB appearances but with a limited pitch mix:  51% curve, 39% Sinker, 6% Change Up. His sinker averaged 93 MPH.  For long term success the next step is to follow Webb in perfecting the changeup and increase it in the mix.  

Carson Seymour RHP.  DOB:  12/16/1998.  6' 6", 255 lbs.  2 Options.

2025(AAA):  4-8, 3.86, 77 IP, 10.52 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 2.45 GB/FB.

2025(MLB):  1-3, 4.75, 36 IP, 6.50 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.54 GB/FB, 42% Sinker, 22% Fastball, 20% Slider, 10% Changeup, 6% Curve, 96.4 vFA.  

While Trevor McDonald needs to add a pitch to his repertoire, Seymour may need to simplify his.  The sinker and 4-seamer are both plus pitches.  He probably needs to concentrate on polishing up a third and/or 4'th pitch. Seymour pitched really well in a notoriously tough environment in the PCL. Although his numbers were not as good in a small sample at the MLB level, he finished strong with a couple of scoreless appearances including a final 3-inning stint on 9/24.  He might be the most ready of this group to step up into a 5'th SP role.

Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  DOB:  12/1/1998.  6' 4", 241 lbs.  2 Options.

2025(AAA):  3-2, 3.63, 14.05 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 1.42 GB/FB.  

2025(MLB):  2-4, 6.37, 11.83 K/9, 5.16 BB/9, 0.97 GB/FB, 39% Slider, 25% 4-seam FB, 14% Curve, 14% Sinker, 10% Change Up, 93.2 vFA.

If K rate is a measure of stuff, Teng had some of the best stuff in the organization in AAA.  Although he got knocked around at the MLB level, he threw some impressive looking pitches.  He's another case where he may need to simplify his arsenal. His two most effective pitches were the slider and changeup.  The sinker was more effective than the 4-seam and the curve got hammered.  

Blade Tidwell RHP.  DOB:  6/8/2001.  6' 4", 207 lbs.  2 Options.

2025(AAA-Mets):  6-4, 4.10, 79 IP, 9.91 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, 1.07 GB/FB.

2025(AAA-Giants):  0-0, 1.50, 18 IP, 10.30 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 0.86 GB/FB.

2025(MLB-Mets):  1-1, 9.00, 15 IP, 6.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, 0.80 GB/FB, 39% 4-seam FB(95.7), 38% Slider, 18% Sinker.  

Was effective in AAA after coming to the Giants in the haul for Tyler Rogers, but shoulder soreness limited his appearances.  Given his previous connection to Tony Vitello at Tennessee I could see him seriously challenge for a MLB role out of spring training.  Probably needs to develop a changeup or split to be a SP at the MLB level.

Carson Whisenhunt LHP.  DOB:  10/20/2000.  6' 3", 214 lbs.  3 Options.

2025(AAA):  9-5, 4.43, 107.2 IP, 7.94 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.

2025(MLB):  2-1, 5.01, 23.1 IP, 6/17 K/9, 4.63, 6.17 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, 1.07 GB/FB, 48% Sinker(92.5), 37% Change Up, 14% Slider.  

Whiz's K/9 was a bit disappointing even at the AAA level given he reportedly has an 80-grade change up.  At the MLB level he simply did not have enough command of his sinking FB to fully set up the change and he has never commanded a breaking ball.  So where does that leave him?  I have this feeling that if Dave Righetti was still the Giants pitching coach he would have him ditch the breaking ball and teach him a cutter to give him a bit of horizontal glove-side movement.  The other thought is to add a 4-seamer to expand the batter's vertical visual field.  

Battle Royale Smackdown:  The problem here, like in the outfield, is a lot of intriguing potential but nothing that gives a ton of confidence.  I guess I would move Seymour to the top of this list and make 5'th SP his role to lose in spring training.  Of course the other option is to acquire another veteran and make these five the staring rotation in AAA Sacramento to start the season.  And don't forget Hayden Birdsong, Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck.  I have to say, though, that Zach Minasian has a point.  If the Giants can't develop at least one league-average SP out of this bunch then they need to completely rethink their player development.

Prospect Smackdown: Jesus Rodriguez vs Daniel Susac

The Giants recently acquired two new additions to the upper levels of their catching depth chart:  Jesus Rodriguez and Daniel Susac.  As it currently stands they will compete this spring for the back up catcher role behind Patrick Bailey C.  Let's compare them in a prospect smackdown.

Jesus Rodriguez C.  DOB:  4/23/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5' 10", 208 lbs.  40-man Roster, 2 Options.

2025(MiLB- 2 teams):  .307/.393/.403, 7 HR, 21 SB, 11.7 BB%, 13.8 K%, 565 PA, 1.91 GB/FB.

This kid basically raked every level since the Yankees signed him as an international free agent in 2018.  He's listed as a C/3B and has also played LF and DH.  After acquiring him in a deadline trade for Camilo Doval, the Giants used him as C and DH and openly hope to develop him as a C.  His MLB Pipeline scouting report says he struggles at times behind the plate and needs more reps.  He moves "OK" and has solid arm strength and a quick release.  Although the hit tool is a plus and he makes great contact, he swings at too many pitches out of the zone and hits the ball on the ground way too often to have usable power.

Daniel Susac C.  DOB:  5/14/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6' 4", 218 lbs.  As a Rule 5 Draftee, must stay on Active Roster all season or be offered back to the A', so can't be optioned this season.  Starting next season he has 3 Options.  

2025(AAA, A's):  .275/.349/.483, 18 HR, 7 SB, 8.6 BB%, 26.8 K%, 407 PA, 1.52 GB/FB.  

Scouting reports say he made improvements on defense last season and is more advanced defensively than Rodriguez.  He also has more usable power than JRod but is no paragon of plate discipline and has a much higher K rate.  He also puts the ball on the ground more than ideal but not nearly as much as JRod.

Smackdown:  Jesus Rodriguez seems to fit Buster Posey's vision for a higher contact approach from Giants hitters but may not be ready defensively to step into the reserve catcher role.  Susac was probably helped a lot by the hitter friendly environment in Las Vegas and is likely to struggle with contact at the MLB level.  He probably has the inside track to the back up catcher role if only because he can't be optioned to the minors.  In the long run, JRod's batting issues are probably more fixable than Susac's and has a better chance of being on offensive contributor in some role.  

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Add Two Pitchers

 The Giants joined the Hot Stove League action today by reaching agreements with two free agent pitchers, Adrian Houser RHP and Jason Foley RHP.  They also agreed to a minor league deal with former Giant Gregory Santos RHP.   Here's the breakdown:

Adrian Houser RHP.  DOB:  2/2/1993.  6' 3", 242 lbs.  2yr/ $22 M(Option for 3'rd season).

2025:  8-5, 3.31, 125 IP, 6.62 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, 1.49 GB/FB.

Houser caught on with the White Sox last season after a disastrous 2024 with the Mets who released him.  He got off to a great start including 7 shutout innings against the Giants.  He was less effective after a midseason trade to the Rays where his ERA ballooned to 4.79 from the 2.10 he ran up with the ChiSox.  So what's the deal with Houser?  He is obviously a contact pitcher whose success will fluctuate according to the whims of the BABIP gods but there may be reason for more optimism than his K/9 and FIP indicate.  

He has a solid 5 pitch mix including 4-seam FB, sinker, slider and changeup all with approximately equal effectiveness.  They are all good pitches but he doesn't seem to have that put away pitch he needs to get K's.  His fastball and sinker velocities took 2 MPH jumps from 2024 to 95.2 and 94.4 respectively.  He limits the contact damage with a strong ground ball tendency and does not give up a lot of home runs which should play just fine in Oracle Park. His numbers with the Rays were negatively impacted by allowing 9 ER in 10.2 IP in his first two starts.  His remaining 8 starts were better with a 4.14 ERA.  Two of his final 3 starts were Quality Starts.  

He is exactly the type of pitcher the Giants lacked last season, so this is a solid signing, but that was with Justin Verlander in the rotation.  Houser is probably not a guy they can count on to deliver 150 IP let along 180 as 142 is the maximum number of innings he's pitched in any season of his career.  IMO, the Giants still need a starting pitcher at least as good as Verlander was last season plus Houser.

Jason Foley RHP.  DOB:  11/1/1995.  6' 4", 215 lbs.  1 yr/$2 M(Arbitration Eligible 2027, Free Agent 2029).

2024:  3-6, 3.15, 60.0 IP, 6.90 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.57 GB/FB, 28 Saves.

Foley missed all of 2025 after undergoing shoulder surgery.  He is expected to start the season on the 60-day IL and be available by midseason.  He was a decent Closer for the Tigers in 2023 and 2024.  

He's mostly a sinker-slider guy with an occasional 4-seam and changeup mixed in.  He pitches to contact and with a strong groundball tendency and limits home runs.

Gregory Santos returns to the Giants organization on a minor league deal. He's a hard-thrower who can still get it up into the upper 90's but relies on his slider for over 60% of his pitches.  He has battled injuries since having a good season with the White Sox in 2023.  

Scouting the 2026 Draft: Cameron Flukey

Cameron Flukey RHP, College(Coastal Carolina).  DOB:  4/13/2005.  6' 6", 210 lbs.  

2025(College):  8-2, 3.19, 101.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.

Tall RHP with two plus pitches(FB and Curve) and a changeup that could develop into a plus pitch.  Swing and miss stuff with excellent command.  FB sits at 95 deep into games and tops out out 98 MPH.  He is one college pitcher who could get into top 10 draft pick consideration if he has a strong junior season.  Lanky body could stand some filling out.  

Hot Stove League Update: Heating Up

 It's long been said the GM meetings are for laying the groundwork for deals which are consummated at the Winter Meetings.  That dynamic increasingly seems to be pushed back to the Winter Meetings for groundwork which are completed in the following days or weeks.  Three more significant deals got done yesterday including two free agent signings and a trade. These were deals I might have some fan envy over.  Let's break it down:

The Cardinals signed Dustin May RHP to a 1 yr contract with a mutual option for 2027.  Terms of the contract are reported at this time.  

Dustin May RHP.  DOB:  9/6/1997.  6' 6", 180 lbs.  

2025(Dodgers/Red Sox):  7-11, 4.96, 132.1 IP, 8.37 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 1.12 GB/FB.  

Justin Turner's talented, much younger, evil twin dealt with a series of injuries through his career, including two Tommy John surgeries and an esophageal tear(yikes!).  His 132 innings last season were the most of his career but he ended the season on the IL with ulnar neuritis and his velocity was down to 95 MPH from a high of 99 in 2020.  I thought May might be an interesting bounce back candidate on a one year deal but after reviewing the details of his injury history, I can see why the Giants took a pass on him as ulnar neuritis does not sound totally unrelated to his previous two TJ surgeries.

The Tigers signed Kenley Jansen RHP to a 1 yr/$11 M contract, also with a club option for 2027.  

Kenley Jansen RHP.  DOB:  9/30/1987.  6' 5", 265 lbs.  

2025(Angels):  5-4, 2.59, 59 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 29 Saves.  

Jansen may be 38 yo and may not be the pitcher he once was but he is coming of a fine season in which he was charged with just one Blown Save, although he also recorded 4 Losses in which he presumably entered at tie game and lost.  $11 M for just one season seems like a pretty darn reasonable price for that kind of veteran savvy in the Closer role.  And where was Buster Posey today?  Oh here! We found him hanging out in the Brebbia Aisle.  Buster seems quite determined to not pay more than the league minimum for his Closer next season.

Trade:  The Brewers sent Isaac Collins OF and Nick Mears RHP to the Royals for Angel Zerpa LHP.  

Royals Get:

Isaac Collins OF.  DOB:  7/22/1997.  B-S, T-R.  5' 8", 188 lbs.  Pre-arbitration(eligible 2028).

2025(Brewers):  .263/.368/.411, 9 HR, 16 SB, 12.9 BB%, 21.1 K%, 441 PA, 2.6 fWAR.    

The Brewers selected Collins in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft after the 2022 season.  He made his MLB debut in 2023 and had a fine 2025 season for the Brewers.  

Nick Mears RHP.  DOB:  10/7/1996.  6' 3", 217 lbs.  Arbitration eligible.  Free agent 2028. 0 Options.

2025(Brewers):  5-3, 3.49, 56.2 IP, 7.31 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1 Save.

Middle relief arm whose decent ERA may or may not be repeatable depending on what predictive metric you use.

Brewers Get:

Angel Zerpa LHP.  DOB:  9/27/1999.  6' 0", 220 lbs.  Arbitration Eligible(Free Agent 2029). 1 Option.

2025(Royals):  5-2, 4.18, 64.2 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 2.68 GB/FB.  

Similar profile as Mears but a lefty and groundball-dominant which may be perceived as more valuable.

Comment:  Wow!  I must be missing something here because this looks like a fleecing by the Royals.  Even if he's stuck in LF, Collins looks like he could have been an upgrade on Heliot Ramos in LF but then what do the Giants do with Ramos?  Those kinds of sequential moves/trades are what separates the creative GM's from the ones who go by the book.

And this one really hurts.  Merrill Kelly agrees to extend his career with the D'Backs for 2 yr/$40 M.  Kelly seems like the prototype of what the Giants need to fill out their starting rotation:  A veteran who takes the ball every 5 games, keeps you in the game and is willing to take a shorter term contract.  

Merrill Kelly RHP.  DOB:  10/14/1988.  6' 2", 202 lbs.

2025(D'Backs):  12-9, 3.52, 184 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 1.14 GB/FB. 

Seemed like a perfect fit for the Giants 2026 rotation.  Maybe Buster kicked the tires and found out Kelly was looking to resign with the snakes?  Maybe he thinks he can find comparable value more in the 1 yr/$15 M range like Justin Verlander last season?

Come on Buster!  You can't fill all the holes in the Brebbia Aisle!

Hot Stove League Update: Tyler Rogers is a BJ; Polanco to the Mets

 The dreams of an apparently sizable contingent of the Giants fanbase were broken yesterday with the announcement that Tyler Rogers RHP agreed to a 3 yr/$37 M contract with the defending AL champion Blue Jays.  The contract also has an $11 M vesting option for a 4'th season in 2029.

Tyler Rogers RHP.  DOB:  12/17/1990.  6' 3", 190 lbs.  

2025(Giants/Mets):  4-6, 1.98, 77.1 IP, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, 3.39 GB/FB.

Rogers is coming off a tremendous season as a set up man for the Giants and Mets.  He was traded to the Mets at the trade deadline when Buster Posey made the decision to sell after a tough home losing streak effectively dropped the Giants out of postseason contention.  The major league reliever the Giants got in return, Jose Butto' was not nearly as effective as Rogers but they also acquired Drew Gilbert OF and Blade Tidwell RHP who are not only promising prospects but formerly players for new Giants Manager Tony Vitello at Univ. of Tennessee.  Rogers now bolsters the bullpen of a team that is not only an obvious and immediate postseason contender but a serious contender to win a World Series Championship.  Rogers already made a couple of better than decent paydays through arbitration eligibility with the Giants, but this contract sets him up for life.  Good for him.  It took him 6 seasons in the minors to get to the major leagues so he got a late start but used his unique delivery to become one of the most reliable set up relievers in the game. He has tried closing several times and was never able to succeed in that role probably due to his soft contact approach which sometimes gets him in trouble with the BABIP gods.  

Jorge Polanco UT.  DOB:  7/5/1993.  B-S, T-R. 6' 0", 208 lbs.  Contract:  2 yr/$40 M.

2025(Mariners):  .265/.326/.495, 26 HR, 6 SB, 8.0 BB%, 15.6 K%, 524 PA.  

Polanco is coming off a terrific season, by far his best since 2021, so the Mets are buying high on him.  He is a multipositional player whose defense is not what it used to be. Although he has played mostly 2B, the Mets also acquired Marcus Semien 2B and plan to use Polanco as Pete Alonso's replacement at 1B.  If Polanco can replicate his 2025 performance at the plate, he gives close to Alonso's value at a much lower cost and shorter financial commitment but his history suggests that may be a tough assignment for him.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Don't Sign Pete Alonso, Robert Suarez or Mike Yastrzemski

There were three significant free agent signings as the Winter Meetings wound down and folks headed for home.  The biggest news is Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles for 5 yr/$150 M.  Robert Suarez signed with the Braves for 3 yr/$45 M and the Braves, who have been very active so far, also signed Mike Yastrzemski to a 2 yr/$23 M contract.  Let's break it all down:

Pete Alonso 1B/DH.  DOB:  12/7/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 245 lbs.  5 yr/$ 150 M.  

2025(Mets):  .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 8.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 709 PA, 3.4 bWAR.  

Alonso is one of the elite power hitters in MLB and is coming off an excellent campaign.  Alonso tends to not get the respect he deserves because his WAR gets suppressed by positional factors and subpar defense.  But that power looks good in any lineup even if he has to DH full time.  Orioles get a big boost to their lineup and the Mets lose production they probably cannot replace unless they re-allocate the resources and go after Kyle Tucker who is going to cost a whole lot more.

Robert Suarez RHP.   DOB:  3/1/1991.  6' 2", 210 lbs.  3 yr/$45 M.  

2025(Padres):  4-6, 2.97, 69.2 IP, 9.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 40 Saves. 

Suarez hasn't been in the league a long time but he did not make his first MLB appearance until age 31.  The past two seasons established him as one of the league's elite closers.  3 years may seems like a long contract for a guy entering his age 35 season but as a lifelong reliever(he pitched several seasons in Japan), he has a relatively low-mileage arm.  He'll now compete for or share the Closer role with Raisel Iglesias RHP.  When the Braves have the lead they shorten the game to 7 innings.  That can win a lot of games.  Smart deal for the Braves.

Mike Yastrzemski OF.  DOB:  8/23/1990.  B- L, T- L.  5' 11", 180 lbs.  2 yr/$23 M($4 M buyout of $7 M for third season).

2025(Giants/Royals):  .233/.333/403, 17 HR, 7 SB, 12.9 BB%, 19.4 K%, 558 PA.  

While those numbers don't looks too bad, YtY had a power surge after the trade(7 HR in the month of August) that boosted his SLG% considerably.  He is going to a much friendlier ballpark for hitters so he may continue to put up better than decent number for ATL.  Just remember he really had only two good months in 2025, April with the Giants and August after the trade.  I am happy for YtY that he will get enough money from the game to set him up for life.  I am also happy the Giants are not the ones paying him for the next 2+ years.

Comment:  I think Rafael Devers is a better fit for the Giants than Pete Alonso in essentially the same role because of Devers lefty bat to balance out an otherwise righty lineup and they probably don't have the budget for both.  After watching so many games get pissed away from Blown Saves last year, Robert Suarez sure looks like a difference maker in the Closer role and not at an unreasonable price.  SP is probably a higher priority than Closer but it remains to be seen if and how Buster chooses to allocate his resources.  I just hope he doesn't get to the end of next season and realize not doing enough with the bullpen was the difference between making the postseason and not.  Much as I like YtY and appreciate what he gave the Giants it's time to move on.  Buster needs to either sort out the outfield mess and find his RF in there somewhere or else convince ownership to give him the funding for a serious upgrade.  

It appears to me, based on what Alex Pavlovic and other beat writers are reporting and the Giants lack of activity in the market so far, that Buster is waiting for the market to come to him.  I think that strategy might work.  The market is off to a slower start than last season with a small number of aggressive teams and more teams crying poor mouth while saying they expect to cut payroll or at least not increase it.  That could leave some nice deals as the Hot Stove League enters the stretch run but don't be surprised if it runs into the start of spring training.  The one demographic it might not work with is relief pitching in general and Closer in particular as that market has been the most active.