MLB Draft Reviews: 2021 First Round

 1.  Pirates:  Henry Davis C, College.  

2024(AAA):  .307/.401/.555, 13 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 22.4 K%, 254 PA.

2024(MLB):  .144/.242/.212, 1 HR, 10.7 BB%, 36.9 K%, 122 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Polarizing choice as #1 overall as a hit-first college catcher who was widely considered a signability pick.  Better defender at C than OF in small samples.  Has put together excellent offensive lines in AAA but faceplanted in 2 MLB trials with a .191 BA in 377 cumulative PA's.  Can he make the adjustment with more MLB experience or is he a AAAA player?

2.  Rangers:  Jack Leiter RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  6-4, 3.51, 77 IP, 12.86 K/9, 4.09 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-3, 8.83, 35.1 IP, 7.82 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, -0.2 fWAR.

First 3 pro seasons did not go well with ERA's and BB/9's over 5.  2024 AAA was better but midseason call up to the Rangers did not go well.

3.  Tigers:  Jackson Jobe RHP, HS

2024(AA):  4-2, 1.95, 73.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 4.04 xFIP.  

Peripheral numbers don't match the ERA.  Also pitched 9 innings at AAA and 4 innings at MLB levels with even worse ratios.  His FB was 97 MPH in his MLB cup of coffee.  Maybe profiles more as a reliever than SP?

4.  Red Sox:  Marcelo Mayer SS, HS

2024(AA):  .307/.370/.480, 8 HR, 13 SB, 9.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, 335 PA.

The numbers look good.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs mentions issues with soft stuff low and away.  His last two seasons ended early with relatively minor injuries.  Still projects as at least a solid starting MBL SS.

5.  Orioles:  Colton Cowser OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .242/.321/.447, 24 HR, 9 SB, 9.3 BB%, 30.7 K%, 561 PA, 4.0 fWAR.  

K rate is a bit high but otherwise about all you could expect from a rookie season for a first round draft pick.

6.  D'Backs:  Jordan Lawlar SS, HS.

Battled a hamstring injury for much of 2024 and got only 104 PA at 3 levels.  Numbers are good when healthy and should graduate to MLB in 2025 if healthy.

7.  Royals:  Frank Mozzicato LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  5-10, 3.45, 101.2 IP, 8.06 K/9, 5.49 BB/9.  

Not the numbers you want to see from a first round draft pick in their third pro season even if they were drafted out of HS.

8.  Rockies:  Benny Montgomery OF, HS.

2024(AA);  .283/.313/.500, 2 HR, 3 SB, 4.2 BB%, 41.7 K%, 48 PA.

Underwent shoulder surgery in May and did not return in 2024.  Had been progressing at a reasonable pace before that setback.

9.  Angels:  Sam Bachman RHP, College.

Made the majors in 2023 and pitched to a 3.18 ERA but with poor peripherals.  Missed the second half of 2023 with shoulder inflammation and underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason.  Pitched at 3 levels in second half of 2024.  2025 should be a telling year.

10.  Mets:  Kumar Rocker RHP, College.

Did not sign.  Pitched indy ball for a year and was drafted by the Rangers in 2022.  Pitched at 4 levels in 2024 with excellent stat lines including 11.2 IP with the MLB Rangers.

11.  Nationals:  Brady House SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .234/.310/.423, 13 HR, 5 SB, 7.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 306 PA.

2024(AAA):  .250/.280/.375, 6 HR, SB, 3.0 BB%, 28.8 K%, 236 PA.  

Projected to play 3B for the Nationals in 2025.  Offensive profile similar to Casey Schmitt.

12.  Mariners:  Harry Ford C, HS.

2024(AA):  .249/.377/.367, 7 HR, 35 SB, 14.5 BB%, 22.0 K%, 523 PA.

Power down a bit after hitting 15 HR in 2023 in A+ ball.  Excellent plate discipline.  Fangraphs notes improve catcher D.

13.  Phillies:  Andrew Painter RHP, HS.

Had a great Arizona Fall League with a 2.08 ERA and 12 K's, 2 BB's in 13 IP after missing 2 full seasons with a UCL tear.  Fangraphs comped him to Justin Verlander!

14.  Giants:  Will Bednar RHP, College.

2024(A):  1-0, 3.60, 10 IP, 11.70 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-2, 3.18, 11.1 IP, 15.88 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-2, 7.71, 32.2 IP, 11.85 K/9, 9.92 BB/9.

Bednar has been quite the enigma.  I really liked him coming out of the draft.  I figured a top pitcher from the top college conference would be a fast mover to the majors and be a rotation fixture for years.  I saw him pitch in San Bernardino early in 2022.  He took a no-hitter into the 5'th inning but something seemed off.  His velocity topped out at 92 MPH with inconsistent command.  He was shut down early in 2022 and missed much of 2023 with back issues.  His velocity was reportedly up to the mid-90's in 2024 but he continued to battle command/control issues.  He was not added to the 40 man roster this offseason and is Rule 5 Draft eligible.  He's a guy who could move fast if he ever gets his command back and stays healthy but how likely is that? 

15.  Brewers:  Sal Frelick OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .259/320/.335, 2 HR, 18 SB, 7.4 BB%, 14.9 K%, 524 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Contact/speed guys seem to be coming back into vogue.  Buster Posey has indicated he wants these types of players on the Giants due to ballpark characteristics.  Most of Frelick's WAR value is in defense and baserunning.

16.  Marlins:  Khalil Watson SS, HS

2024(AA, Guardians):  .220/.305/.407, 16 HR, 15 SB, 407 PA.

Traded to Guardians with Jean Segura for Josh Bell at the 2023 trade deadline.  Off the chart tools but needs to improve contact.

17.  Reds:  Matt McLain SS, College.

2023(MLB):  .290/.357/.507, 16 HR, 14 SB, 7.7 BB%, 28.5 K%, 403 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Terrific rookie season.  Did not play in 2024 due to shoulder surgery in March. 

18.  Cardinals:  Michael McGreevy RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  9-8, 4.02, 150 IP, 8.28 K/9, 2.64 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-0, 1.96, 23 IP, 7.04 K/9, 0.78 BB/9, 0.6 fWAR.

Solid minor league record and a promising start to his MLB career.  Extreme groundball ratio with low walk rates is a recipe for sustained success.  Cardinals once again finding value in the second half of the first round.

19.  Blue Jays:  Gunnar Hoglund RHP, College. 

2024(AA, A's):  9-4, 2.84, 104.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.

2-24(AAA, A's):  0-3, 5.88, 26 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.46 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in 2022 in a package for Matt Chapman.  Some inconsistent ERA's and pedestrian K/BB's.  Added to A's 40-man roster yesterday.

20. Yankees: Trey Sweeney SS, College.

2024(AAA, Dodgers):  .254/.334/.427, 13 HR, 16 SB, 10.0 BB%, 26.8 K%, 440 PA.

2024(AAA, Tigers):  .381/.447/.667, 2 HR, 4 SB, 10.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, 47 PA.

2024(MLB, Tigers):  .218/.269/.373, 4 HR, 2 SB, 5.9 BB%, 26.9 K%, 119 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Traded from the Yankees to the Dodgers for a couple of pitchers in the fall of 2023.  Traded to the Tigers for Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline 2024.  Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Big-framed shortstop with starter-quality contact/power combo that plays down due to his downward swing."

21.  Cubs:  Jordan Wicks LHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-4, 5.57, 21 IP, 10.29 K/9, 3.43 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 5.48, 46 IP, 8.22 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, -0.1 fWAR.

Reached MLB level in 2023 with a 4.41 ERA in 34.2 IP(0.3 fWAR).  Regressed in 2024.  Maybe the league got a book on his stuff?

22.  White Sox:  Colson Montgomery SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .214/.329/.381, 18 HR, 8 SB, 12.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, 573 PA.  

Fangraphs:  "Montgomery is probably too big for a shortstop but his on-base skills and power profile well at third base."  Will need to improve contact.

23.  Guardians:  Gavin Williams RHP, College.

2024:  3-10, 4.86, 76 IP, 9.36 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.3 fWAR.

Reached the majors in 2023(1.1 fWAR) with inconsistent results so far.

24.  Braves:  Ryan Cusick RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-3, 4.47, 56.1 IP, 10.07 K/9, 5.27 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in the package for Matt Olson.  Added to 40-man roster yesterday.  High walk rates have held him back and continue to be an issue.

25.  A's:  Max Muncy SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .277/.374/.491, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.9 BB%, 24.6 K%, 203 PA.

Not to be confused with THAT Max Muncy!  Really, this Max Muncy should seriously think about changing his name or going by a nickname or something.  I get PTSD just reading the name.  We'll give it a scouting grade of 20.  Will likely make his MLB debut with the A's in 2025.

26.  Twins:  Chase Petty RHP, HS.

2024(AA):  10-5, 4.39, 127 IP, 8.72 K/9, 3.97 BB/9.

Traded to the Reds for Sonny Gray RHP.  Unexciting peripheral stats.

27.  Padres:  Jackson Merrill OF, HS.

2024(MLB):  .292/.326/.500, 24 HR, 16 SB, 4.9 BB%, 17.0 K%, 593 PA, 5.3 fWAR.

Best player in the draft so far.  Contact, power, speed.  He's the whole package.  Can he sustain it with that walk rate?  When a team gets a player like this at #27 is it drafting luck or skill? I mean the Angels got Mike Trout at #25 and he was their only good pick for a decade.

28.  Rays:  Carson Williams SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .256/.352/.469, 20 HR, 33 SB, 11.5 BB%, 28.5 K%, 505 PA.  Fangraphs:  "Williams has hit tool risk, but his power and shortstop defense make him a potential star.

29.  Dodgers:  Maddux Bruns LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  0-1, 2.22, 28.1 IP, 11.75 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

Severe command/control issues limit potential.  May end up as lefty reliever.

Summary:

Strange draft in that the back half of the first round looks a lot stronger than the front half so far.  Maybe too early to completely give up on Bednar but the probability is the Giants get no value from this first round pick and that hurts.

Hot Stove Update: Buster Adds Advisors; Rule 5 Draft Roster Moves

Giants POBO, Buster Posey, made a couple of hires which caused a mini-meltdown in the Giants blogosphere.  Buster hired former Giants GM Bobby Evans and Buster's own former agent, Jeff Berry, as advisors.  The meltdowns are related to a perception that Bobby Evans tenure as GM was a disaster while Jeff Berry was recently quoted in The Athletic complaining about Moneyball groupthink and how unfair it was for some of his clients.  

I've never been as down on Bobby Evans as most Giants bloggers.  He was trying to keep an aging, declining core competitive longer than was warranted but I tend to believe that's what ownership wanted him to do.  It was the expectation of most of the fanbase.  He acquired some veteran players who didn't pan out as hoped which left the team in a payroll bind.  He also expanded the analytics department and beefed up international scouting which paid dividends with the signings of Luis Matos and Marco Luciano.  He was also GM when Heliot Ramos was drafted after several drafts that didn't work out, mostly due to the Giants relatively low drafting positions.  I am sure his top-to-bottom knowledge of organizational structure will be valuable to Buster as he acclimates to the role of POBO.  I don't know enough about Berry to comment much on what he may bring to Buster's round table, but it doesn't hurt to have some insight into how agents think about the free agent process.

*************************************************************************************

Today was the deadline for setting 40-man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft which takes place on the last day of the Winter Meetings in December.  No big surprises as the Giants added Carson Seymour RHP and Carson Ragsdale RHP and DFA's Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  Players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft who were not protected include Aeverson Arteaga SS and Onil Perez C as well as former first round draft picks Hunter Bishop OF and Will Bednar RHP.  I do not see a high probability that any of them will be selected.

MLB Draft Reviews: Giants 2020 Draft

The 2020 draft was just 5 rounds due to the pandemic.  I'm not sure why the pandemic shortened the draft but probably mostly to save money on signing bonuses.  Anyway, we already saw how first round pick Patrick Bailey was arguably the best pick in the draft.   How did the Giants do in the other 5 rounds?  BTW, they had two extra picks at the end of round 2 due to losing Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith to free agency.

1.  Patrick Bailey C, College.

As we have discussed extensively, Bailey was an excellent first round pick in an extremely weak draft, possibly the best player in the entire draft.

2. Casey Schmitt 3B, College.

We all know Casey's story too.  He's at a crossroads in his career.  He has shown flashes of star potential or at least a solid MLB regular.  The main thing holding him back is a severe lack of plate discipline.  He was noticeably better after a late season return to the active roster.  Will he get a chance to show that wasn't a fluke in 2025?

2C.  Nick Swiney LHP, College.

2024(AA):  4-2, 5.25, 72 IP, 9.88 K/9, 4.13 BB/9.  

Those are not the kind of numbers to make you think Swiney is going to reach the big leagues anytime soon.

2C.  Jimmy Glowenke 2B, College.

2024(AA):  .199/.300/.309, 7 HR, 5 SB, 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K%, 392 PA. 

Also not the kind of numbers to make you think he will reach the majors anytime soon.

3.  Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.

2024:  7-7, 4.56, 124.1 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 0.8 fWAR.

Pretty solid rooking campaign for Harrison.  He seemed to tire in the second half or maybe the league got a book on him?  Finished the season on the IL with "mild" shoulder inflammation. Many analysts were calling for him to be shut down for the season anyway.  Strong candidate for a breakout in 2025 just due to normal development and added experience.

4.  R. J. Dabovich RHP, College.

Hard throwing college Closer.  Was on fast track to majors as a reliever but underwent hip surgery in 2023 and spend most of 2024 on the IL due to an undisclosed condition.  

5.  Ryan Murphy RHP, College.

2024(AA):  1-4, 3.35, 43 IP, 9.63 K/9, 2.93 BB/9.  

Pitched well before going on IL after June 1.  I was not able to find the nature or his injury.  Google search for Ryan Murphy injury showed his name but description of injury clearly referring to Tom Murphy C. Ryan Murphy spent time on the IL in 2022 with elbow inflammation.

Summary:

This would be a successful draft with Patrick Bailey alone.  Adding Kyle Harrison makes it excellent. If Casey Schmitt sustains his newfound plate discipline proves this could be one of the great Giants drafts of all time.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2020 First Round

 1.  Tigers:  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College.  

2024(AAA):  .239/.356/.442, 11 HR, 15.3 BB%, 30.9 K%, 275 PA.

2024(MLB:  .219/.295/.374, 10 HR, 8.7 BB%, 27.6 K%, 381 PA, 0.1 fWAR(1.5 in 2023).

Bat regressed badly after hitting 31 HR's at the MLB level in 2023.  Negative fielding metrics.

2.  Orioles:  Heston Kjerstad OF, College:  

2024(AAA):  .300/.397/.601, 16 HR, 12.4 BB%, 26.0 K%, 258 PA.

2024(MLB):  .253/.351/.394, 4 HR, 8.8 BB%, 28.9 K%, 114 PA, 0.3 fWAR

K rate is higher than ideal but appears poised to become a MLB regular with some power.

3.  Marlins:  Max Meyer RHP, College

2024(AAA):  1-3, 4.34, 58 IP, 10.71 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-5, 5.68, 57 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, -0.3 fWAR.

Undersized college P with a big arm.  Appeared to have the most advanced stuff of any pitcher in the draft.  May end up in retrospect as the classic high-floor/low-ceiling college prospect.

4.  Royals:  Asa Lacy LHP, College

Pitched ineffectively in 3 minor league seasons.  Has not pitched since 2022 and underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2024.

5.  Blue Jays:  Austin Martin SS, College

2024(AAA, Twins):  .305/.469/.379, 1 HR, 8 SB, 21.5 BB%, 11.5 K%, 130 PA.

2024(MLB, Twins):  .253/.318/.352, 1 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 257 PA,  -0.2 fWAR.

Disappointing pro career so far from Martin who was rated as the best pure hitter in the draft.  Has never played SS in the pros.  Traded to the Twins in July 2021 with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios.  Lack of power is his biggest deficiency hitting just 16 HR's in 1500 pro PA's. Negative defensive metrics.

6.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College

2024(AAA):  7-3, 3.43, 94.1 IP, 6.30 K/9, 3.53 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  4-4, 4.75, 60.2 IP, 5.79 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, -0.4 fWAR.

Pedestrian K/BB does not bode well for future success.

7.  Pirates:  Nick Gonzalez 2B, College

2024(AAA):  .356/.429/.600, 5 HR, 9.7 BB%, 16.2 K%, 154 PA.

2024(MLB):  .270/.311/.398, 7 HR, 4.7 BB%, 19.1 K%, 387 PA, 1.3 fWAR.

Can be a solid MLB 2B if he can improve on what was technically his rookie season with experience.

8.  Padres:  Robert Hassell III OF, HS

2024(A+):  .259/.276/.370, 3.4 BB%, 13.8 K%, 29 PA.

2024(AA):  .271/.357/.371, 11.0 BB%, 20.8 K%, 12 SB, 264 PA.

2024(AAA):  .125/.188/.156, 3 SB, 7.2 BB%, 24.6 K%, 69 PA.

Fangraphs capsule comment is his offensive performance "tanked" after trade to the Nationals for Juan Soto.  Fractured hamate after 2023 season.  Still has time to bounce back.

9.  Rockies:  Zac Veen OF, HS

2024(AA):  .268/.359/.457, 5 HR, 10 SB, 11.0 BB%, 26.2 K%, 145 PA.

2024(AAA):  .220/.281/.476, 6 HR, 6 SB, 7.6 BB%, 26.1 K%, 92 PA.

Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Veen's lefty swing is still vulnerable to inner-half velocity and he remains in a liminal prospect space more than he is a slam dunk big league star.

10.  Angels:  Reid Detmers LHP, College

2024:  4-9, 6.70, 87.1 IP, 11.23 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 0.7 fWAR.  

Slightly better than league-average SP in 2022 and 2023. Pitched a no-hitter in his 2022 rookie year.  Big regression in 2024 including a demotion to AAA.

11.  White Sox:  Garrett Crochet LHP, College

2024:  6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 4.7 fWAR.

Crochet was my highest rated pitcher in the draft.  Breakout performance in 2024.  Only deficiency is he doesn't get deep into games.  Intriguing trade target for a team willing to give up prospect capital to win now.

12.  Reds:  Austin Hendrick OF, HS

2024(AA):  .188/.243/.288, 11 HR, 14 SB, 5.3 BB%, 36.5 K%, 474 PA.

Has never had a K rate less than 35%.

13. Giants:  Patrick Bailey C, College

2024:  .234/.298/.339, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.7 BB%, 22.3 K%, 4.3 fWAR.

Gold glove catcher by a large margin.  Bat has faded in second half two seasons in a row.  Still has one of the highest values out of this draft.

14.  Rangers:  Justin Foscue 1B, College

2024(AAA):  .276/.420/.477, 9 HR, 17.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, 219 PA.

2024(MLB):  .048/.091/.071, 4.5 BB%, 40.9 K%, 44 PA, -0.8 fWAR.

Decent numbers at AAA but faceplanted in a small sample at the MLB level.  Not really what you are looking for in a guy who DH'd 11 games out of 14 even if he translated his AAA numbers to MLB.

15.  Phillies:  Mick Abel RHP, HS

2024(AAA):  3-12, 6.46, 108.2 IP, 9.69 K/9, 6.46 BB/9

Plus-plus stuff has not translated due to persistently high walk rates.

16.  Cubs:  Ed Howard SS, HS

2024(A+):  .234/.289/.310, 2 HR, 8 SB, 6.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 395 PA.

2024:(AAA):  .139/.205/.167, 4.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 41 PA.

Has tools but has never hit above .244 in the pros.  Stuck at A+ level for 3 seasons.

17.  Red Sox:  Nick Yorke, SS, HS

2024(AA, Red Sox):  .251/.325/.366, 4 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 18.3 K%, 197 PA.

2024(AAA, Red Sox):  .310/.408/.490, 6 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.

2024(AAA, Pirates):  .355/.431/.507, 2 HR, 7 SB, 10.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.

2024(MLB, Pirates):  .216/.286/.378, 2 HR, 2 SB, 9.5 BB%, 28.6 K%, 42 PA, -0.1 fWAR.

Many analysts thought Yorke was a huge reach when the Red Sox selected him in the draft.  Has put up some good batting lines but the knock on him is below average defense after moving off SS to 2B/OF.  Traded to the Pirates straight up for Quinn Priester RHP.

18.  D'Backs:  Bryce Jarvis RHP, College

2024:  1-2, 3.19, 59 IP, 5.76 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 5.12 FIP, -0.6 fWAR.  

I have to admit I was really high on Jarvis going into the draft and was disappointed when the Giants passed on him to draft Patrick Bailey.  Hmm.....seems like Michael Holmes and FZ know more about drafting than I do.

19.  Mets:  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS

2024(AAA, Cubs):  .255/.299/.509, 5 HR, 10 SB, 5.1 BB%, 27.4 K%, 117 PA.

2024(MLB, Cubs):  .237/.286/.384, 10 HR, 27 SB, 5.1 BB%, 23.9 K%, 410 PA, 2.7 fWAR.

Tooled up.  Traded from Mets to Cubs for Javier Baez IF and Trevor Williams RHP.  WAR value is in CF defense.  Can still develop into a 4-5 WAR player if bat progresses.

20.  Brewers:  Garrett Mitchell OF, College

2024:  .255/.342/.469, 8 HR, 11 SB, 11.2 BB%, 31.7 K%, 224 PA, 1.8 fWAR.

Tools galore with positive value in all phases of the game.  K rate limits future value unless he can bring it down.

21.  Cardinals:  Jordan Walker OF, HS

2024(AAA):  .263/.326/.445, 9 HR, 7 SB, 8.2 BB%, 19.4 K%, 377 PA.

2024(MLB):  .201/.253/.366, 5 HR, 5.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 178 PA.

Looked like the steal of the draft when he burst on the scene in 2023 but fell victim to the "sophomore jinx".  Future now uncertain.

22.  Nationals:  Cade Cavalli RHP, College

Missed entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.  Reinjured elbow during rehab assignment and was on a throwing program at the end of 2024 season.

23.  Guardians:  Carson Tucker SS, HS

Released on 7/3/2024.

24.  Rays:  Nick Bitsko RHP, HS

Has only pitched a total of 28.1 innings in pro ball due to a series of injuries.

25.  Braves:  Jared Shuster LHP, College

2024(AAA, White Sox):  0-1, 6.39, 12.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 2.13 BB/9

2024(MLB, White Sox):  2-5, 4.30, 73.1 IP, 6.87 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.

Traded to White Sox for Aaron Bummer LHP.  LOL Fangraphs:  "In Bummer Move, Braves Land Lefty Reliever for Pile of Ex-Prospects."

26.  A's:  Tyler Soderstrom C, HS

2024(AAA):  .279/.385/.607, 10 HR, 11.2 BB%, 24.5 K%, 143 PA.

2024(MLB):  .233/.315/.429, 9 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.9 K%, 213 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Drafted as a catcher out of HS.  Now starting 1B for the A's.  Bat still has a chance to be good enough for 1B.   Son of former Giants first round draft pick Steve Soderstrom.  

27.  Twins:  Aaron Sabato 1B, College

2024(AA):  .206/.303/.350, 10 HR, 8 SB, 10.9 BB%, 29.7 K%, 350 PA.

K rate is holding bat back.

28.  Yankees:  Austin Wells C, College

2024:  .229/.322/.395, 13 HR, 11.4 BB%, 21.0 K%, 414 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

Once again, Yankees find solid value at the bottom of the draft.  Some analysts thought Wells had the best bat in the draft but had questions about his catching defense.  Ironically most of WAR value in 2024 came on D.  

29.  Dodgers:  Bobby Miller RHP, College

2024(AAA):  0-1, 5.06, 7.76 K/9, 5.74 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 8.52, 8.36 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, -0.9 fWAR.

Very hard thrower but has not commanded his pitches at the MLB level and has been punished for it.

30.  Orioles:  Jordan Westburg IF, College

2024:  .264/.312/.481, 18 HR, 6 SB, 4.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 447 PA, 2.8 fWAR.  

Low walk rate is concerning but looks like he can be a solid regular at the MLB level.

Summary:  2020 draft is shaping up to be extraordinarily weak, possibly related to COVID interruption in development.  Giants taking Patrick Bailey is arguably the best pick in the draft.  Garrett Crochet, Pete Crow Armstrong and Austin Wells deserve mention as good picks.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2019 Giants Draft

I think most Giants fans think the 2029 draft was a total bust.  I know that has been my general impression.  While the first two picks did not develop as hoped, the draft is actually looking quite strong in later rounds.  

1.  Hunter Bishop OF, College:  Underslot- $640 K

As discussed extensively, finally had a healthy season in 2024 but needs to stay healthy and step up his game in 2025.  Still has outside shot at a MLB career with the Giants.

2.  Logan Wyatt 1B, College:  Underslot- $442, 500

Retired 8/10/2024.  Was the new "god of walks" in college.  Never got traction on his pro career.

3.  Grant McCray CF, HS:  Overslot- $6, 200

5-tool athlete who was raw when drafted.  Slow to find traction in the pros but advanced steadily over the last 3 seasons.  Ended 2024 as the Giants starting CF.  Probably needs a bit more seasoning but has a chance to be a plus player in all phases of the game.

4.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS, College:  Underslot- $$2,500

Ended 2024 as the Giants starting SS.  Buster Posey indicated he wants to add a SS this offseason and move Fitz to 2B or utility role.

5.  Garrett Frechette 1B, HS: Overslot- $425, 900

Released from A+ Eugene 7/23/2024.  Bat never developed.

6.  Dilan Rosario SS, HS: Overslot- $368, 200

Released from AA Richmond 7/24/2024.  Bat never developed.

7.  Armani Smith LF, College:  Overslot- $77, 300

Waived by AA Richmond and claimed by the Twins 12/7/2022.  Released from developmental ball 7/15/2023.  Looked like a promising power bat at A and A+ levels in 2021 but regressed badly after that.

8.  Caleb Kilian RHP, College:  Overslot- $221,200

2024(Cubs):  0-1, 4.22, 10.2 IP.   Traded to Cubs with Alex Canario for Kris Bryant.  Had a promising 2022 minor league season but struggled in several attempts to pitch at MLB level.  Missed most of 2024 with a Teres Major strain.

9.  Simon Whiteman SS, College:  Underslot- $132, 800

Released by AA Richmond 7/25/2023.  Speedy but undersized IF from Ivy League.  Currently enrolled in law school at Univ of Chicago.  

10.  Jeff Houghtby SS, College: Underslot- $123, 200

Played just one pro season in 2019 after the draft.  Retired 5/3/2021.

11.  Trevor McDonald RHP, College: Overslot- $700 K

Added to 40-man roster November 2023.  pitched at 4 minor league levels in 2024 after starting season on IL.  Started the final game of the season for the Giants with 3 shutout innings. Has 2 remaining options.

12.  Chris Wright LHP, College: Overslot- $25 K

Has pitched well in the minors as a lefty reliever/Closer.  Missed all of 2024 with an injury.  Currently on the AAA Sacramento roster.

13.  Harrison Freed OF, College: Slot

Released 3/27/2023.

14.  Nick Morreale RHP, College:  Overslot- $25 K

2024(A+):  3-3, 3.89, 44 IP, 10.23 K/9, 2.45 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-1, 1.70, 37 IP, 7.30 K/9, 3.16 BB/9.

Big RHP who for some reason got buried at A+ level for 4 seasons despite excellent numbers.  Finally got a promo to AA last season with a low ERA but his K/BB took a hit.  A GM out there looking to add talent via the Rule 5 Draft might want to get a scouting report on him.

15.  Carter Aldrete 3B, College:  Overslot- $25 K

Nephew of former Giant Mike Aldrete.  Released 1/10/2024.  Like many other hitting prospects his bat hit the wall at AA.

16.  Brandon Martorano C, College:  Overslot- $25 K

Released 8/7/2024.  Career minor league BA .220.

17.  Connor Cannon 1B, College:  Underslot- $100 K

Released 3/12/2024.  Traded to Yankees 6/1/2021.  Released by Yanks 8/31/2022.  Resigned by the Giants 2/17/2023.  "Light tower power" but already had bad knees when drafted and was only healthy enough to play in 2 minor league seasons.

18.  Cole Waites RHP, College:  Slot

Hard-throwing reliever/Closer type who got a cup of coffee in 2023 which did not go well. He then underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2024.  Some Giants-oriented bloggers are advocating for him to be added to the 40-man roster again to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.  

19.  Kanoa Pagan RHP, College:  Slot

Has pitched very sparingly due to multiple apparent injuries.  Still on the A San Jose Giants roster.

20.  Najee Gaskins OF, College:  Underslot- $25 K

Released 8/9/2022 despite a pro career BA of .285.

21.  Bryce Fehmel RHP, College: Underslot- $98 K.

Voluntarily retired 5/30/2022 after second UCL tear.

22.  Javeyan Williams OF, College: Underslot- $100 K

Released 8/12/2021 after batting .209 at two levels in his first full pro season.

23.  Taylor Rashi RHP, College: Underslot- $98 K

Claimed off waivers by the Reno Aces in the D'Backs organization 12/7/2022.  Pitched fairly well at two levels with the D'Backs in 2024.

24.  Evan Lumbert RHP, College:  Underslot- $98 K

Released 3/30/2022 despite a pro career ERA of 1.56

25.  Richard Rodriguez SS, HS: Not signed

26.  Nick Avila RHP, College:  Underslot- $50 K

Got some notice when he went 14-0 with a 3.00 ERA for AAA Sacramento in 2023.  A couple cups of coffee in early 2024 did not go well and he was released and signed by the Orioles then released by them 8/26/2024.  Getting to the major leagues is hard.  Staying there is harder. Tough business!

27.  Connor Beichler SS, HS:  Not signed

28.  Reese Sharp RHP,  HS:  Not signed

29.  Brooks Crawford RHP, College:  Underslot- $98 K

Claimed off waivers by the Reds organization 12/7/2022.  Looks like he is still in the Reds organization.

30.  Justin Crump RHP, College:  Underslot- $25 K

Released 8/15/2021 after recording a 5.94 ERA with the San Jose Giants.

Summary:  If McCray, Fitzgerald and McDonald become MLB regulars, which looks possible, this will be one of the stronger drafts in Giants history.  Bishop, Morreale and Waites still have outside shots at having MLB careers.

MLB Amateur Draft Review: 2019 Round One

After giving it some thought, I am inspired to get back to some draft content.  We'll do some reviews of past drafts to see what lessons might be learned and will start some scouting reports for the 2025 draft in which the Giants will likely end up selecting at #12 overall but could jump the line if they get lucky in the draft lottery.  When were the Giants last lucky in the draft?  

I think I was the first blogger/reporter to pick up FZ's spectacular failure in the first rounds of his drafts.  Of course the Sabean/Evans administratation also had a dismal record for at least 5 years prior but after reviewing those drafts it was apparent much of the problem was where the Giants were drafting rather than poor selecting.  We'll use the same process with FZ's drafts starting with 2019.

1. Orioles:  Adley Rutchsman C, College.  

2024 MLB:  .250/.318/.391, 19 HR, 9.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, 638 PA, 2.8 fWAR.  Down season after two 5+ fWAR seasons in 2022 and 2023.  Has fully played up to 1/1 pedigree.

2. Royals:  Bobby Witt Jr SS, HS.  

2024:  .332/.389/.588, 32 HR, 31 SB, 8.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 709 PA, 10.4 fWAR.

Possible future HOF.  What you dream about when you draft in the top 5 of the the first round.  Locked up on an 11 year contract for $289 M which looks like a bargain for the Royals at this point.

3.  White Sox:  Andrew Vaughn 1B, College.

2024:  .246/.297/.402, 19 HR, 6.1 BB%, 21.3 K%, 619 PA, -0.2 fWAR.  

The bat has not progressed as projected and he has terrible defensive metrics away from 1B.  Got the ball in the air more in 2024 but with more pop ups and a lower HR/FB.  Intriguing trade target for a team that thinks they can unlock the bat.

4.  Marlins:  J. J. Bleday OF, College.

2024(A's):  .243/.324/.437, 20 HR, 10.4 BB%, 19.5 K%, 642 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Took longer to reach the majors than you might expect from a first round draft pick from a program like Vanderbilt.  Traded from the Marlins to the A's for A J Puk LHP.  Turned in a decent season after struggling in 2022 and 2023. 

5.  Tigers:  Riley Greene OF, HS.

2024:  .262/.348/.479, 24 HR, 11.0 BB%, 26.7 K%, 548 PA, 4.0 fWAR.

Some thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft.  Has improved his numbers each of his first 3 MLB seasons.  Probably not a future HOF but should have a long solid MLB career.

6.  Padres:  C. J. Abrams SS, HS.

.246/.314/.433, 20 HR, 31 SB, 6.6 BB%, 21.3 K%, 602 PA, 1.9 fWAR.

This guy would be considered a star in the NL of the 1960's and '70's but in today's game his WAR value takes a hit from a low walk rate and mediocre fielding numbers.  Padres traded him as part of a package for Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

7.  Reds:  Nick Lodolo LHP, College.

2024:  9-6, 4.76, 9.52 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 115 IP, 2.1 fWAR.

Put up a 3.66 ERA in 103 IP his rookie season in 2022.  Numbers partially rebounded after a disastrous sophomore season.

8.  Rangers:  Josh Jung 3B, College.

2024:  .264/.298/.421, 7 HR, 4.3 BB%, 25.5 K%, 188 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Missed time with a wrist injury in 2024 but subpar K/BB's even when healthy don't bode well for a great career.

9. Braves:  Shea Langeliers C, College.

.224/.288/.450, 29 HR, 7.7 BB%, 27.2 K%, 534 PA, 2.0 fWAR.

High K rates will probably continue to suppress his BA but has legit power.  Disappointing defensive numbers.  Langeliers was traded from the Braves to the A's as part of a package for Matt Olson.  

10. Giants:  Hunter Bishop OF, College.

2024 AA:  .242/314/.358, 2 HR, 5 SB, 8.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, 105 PA.

2024 AAA:  .248/.318/.388, 9 HR, 10 SB, 8.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, 413.

I liked the pick at the time although I have never trusted college batting stats from Arizona. I think 2024 was the first healthy season for Bishop since he was drafted and after missing all of 2023.  K rate was still way too high. Maybe a new front office philosophy will trickle down enough for him to cut down on the K's. If you squint hard that might make him a legit prospect. But yeah, not a great pick in retrospect.

11.  Blue Jays:  Alek Manoah RHP, College.

2024:  1-2, 3.70, 24.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.  

Manoah was someone I liked for the Giants in this draft.  He burst on the scene in 2021 and went 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022.  He's been an enigma since.  He underwent Tommy John surgery midseason and probably won't pitch again until 2026.

12.  Mets:  Brett Baty 3B, HS.

2024:  .229/.306/.327, 4 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.6 K%, 171 PA, 0.5 fWAR.  

Has struggled with the transition to MLB but improved his BB% each season and at 24 yo still has time to break out.

13:  Twins:  Keoni Cavaco SS, HS.

2024(A+):  .144/.202/.327, 4 HR, 6.1 BB%, 43.9 K%, 114 PA.

Popped up late in the draft cycle and like many late pop-up prospects, he was a mirage.  Draft bust for the Twins who released him midseason.  He was picked up by the Astros but has a long way to go to regain prospect status.

14.  Phillies:  Bryson Stott SS, College.

2024:  .245/.315/.356, 11 HR, 32 SB, 9.3 BB%, 16.3 K%, 571 PA, 1.9 fWAR.  

Stott is the guy I thought the Giants were most likely to draft, partly because Bishop was off my board by #10.  Stott put up a 4.2 fWAR season in 2023 but regressed last season and looks like his longterm position is 2B rather than SS. He's not a great fielder at either position.

15.  Angels:  Will Wilson SS, College.

2024(AA):  .224/.299/.315, 5 HR, 6 SB, 9.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 360 PA.

2024(AAA):  .188/.300/.224, 10.0 BB%, 26 K%, 100 PA.

Perhaps not other deal is as symbolic of the failure of the FZ regime than him taking on Zack Cozart's $12 M contract to essentially get another first round pick from the 2019 draft.... which by now is all but a busted deal.  It's just extremely hard to see a path to a MLB career for Wilson at this point.

16.  D'Backs:  Corbin Carroll OF, HS.

2024:  .231/.322/.428, 22 HR, 35 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.0 K%, 684 PA, 4.0 fWAR.

I don't think it's a stretch to say you don't need hindsight to know Carroll should have been the Giants pitch at #10.  Maybe they were scared off by his relatively small stature but he's a true 5-tool athlete.  Maybe they thought he was a difficult sign but he signed for near slot at #16.  He'll always be the one who got away in my mind.

17.  Nationals:  Jackson Rutledge RHP, JC.

2024(AAA):  4-9, 6.40, 122.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 5.66 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-0, 3.24, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 2.16 BB/9.

Exciting size and velocity coming out of JC ball, but never developed command.  At this point projects as a relief arm at best.

18.  Pirates:  Quinn Priester RHP, HS.

2024(2 teams):  3-6, 4.71, 49.2 IP, 5.98 K/9, 2.54 BB/9.

HS pitching prospect who did not develop as hoped for the Pirates. Multi-pitch mix but none are dominant and FB is low 90's.  Traded to the Red Sox for another former first rounder who needed a change of scenery, Nick Yorke SS.  

19.  Cardinals:  Zack Thompson LHP, College.

2024:  0-2, 9.53, 17 IP, 10.59 K/9, 4.24 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  4-6, 4.40, 90 IP, 10.80 K/9, 5.60 BB/9.

Has split time between AAA and MLB last 3 seasons.  Regressed in 2024 after promising 2022 and 2023. Per Fangraphs, FB velocity was down from 94.8 in 2022 to 91.4.

20.  Mariners:  George Kirby RHP, College.

2024:  14-11, 3.53, 191 IP, 8.43 K/9, 1.08 BB/9.

Incredibly consistent workhorse with almost identical lines the past two seasons.  

21.  Braves:  Braden Shewmake SS, College.

2024(White Sox):  .125/.134/.203, 1.5 BB%, 14.9 K%, 67 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Traded by the Braves in a package to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer P.  Numbers took a disastrous turn along with almost the entire White Sox organization.  What's going on there?

22.  Rays:  Greg Jones OF, College.

2024(Rockies, AAA):  .269/.346/.460, 16 HR, 46 SB, 9.1 BB%, 35.2 K%, 406 PA.  

2024(Rockies, MLB:  .200/.333/.800, HR, 6 PA.  

Speedy OF with some pop but with extreme K rate.  Only MLB hit is a HR.  Traded from Rays to Rockies for Joe Rock P in March 2024.

23.  Rockies:  Michael Toglia 1B, College.

2024:  .218/.311/.456, 25 HR, 11.8 BB%, 32.1 K%, 458 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Nice power but high K rate, low BA and subpar defense at 1B limit his value.  

24.  Guardians:  Daniel Espino RHP, HS.

Last pitched in 2022 and underwent reconstructive surgery on his shoulder after a promising start to his pro career in the lower minors. That's the risk of drafting HS pitchers.

25.  Dodgers:  Kody Hoese 3B, College.

2024(AAA):  .287/.361/.474, 17 HR, 9.9 BB%, 19.8 K%, 525 PA.  

Decent line at AAA after spending 3 seasons at AA.  

26.  D'Backs:  Blake Walston LHP, HS.

2024(AAA):  3-2, 4.85, 65.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 4.29 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  1-0, 4.42, 18.1 IP, 8.84 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.

AAA Reno is a tough place to pitch, but Fangraphs listed FB velocity of 91.4 not encouraging nor is walk rates.

27.  Cubs:  Ryan Jensen RHP, College.

2024(AAA, Twins):  4-5, 4.76, 56.2 IP, 12.86 K/9, 7.94 BB/9.

Has churned through multiple organizations since being DFA'd by the Cubs in 2023.  Tough to see a MLB future with that walk rate.

28.  Brewers:  Ethan Small LHP, College.

Hey!  He's currently in the Giants organization and on the 40-man MLB roster.  Spent most of 2024 on the IL due to an oblique strain suffered in the spring.

29.  A's:  Logan Davidson 1B, College.

2024(AAA):  .300/.366/.535, 14 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 31.1 K%, 310 PA.

Currently listed as a SS but plays multiple positions.  Seems like the A's could give him a shot at one of them.

30. Yankees:  Anthony Volpe SS, HS.

2024:  .243/.293/.364, 12 HR, 28 SB, 6.1 BB%, 22.6 K%, 689 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

You know who Volpe is if you had the stomach to watch the World Series between the two evil empires.  Yanks have a knack for finding value with late first round draft picks.

Summary:

This was FZ's and Scouting Director Michael Holmes first draft with the Giants. On top of that, Holmes wife died from cancer complications shortly before the draft so I'm not going to be too harsh.  I am not aware of any major red flags on Hunter Bishop and he had an outstanding college batting line.  Unfortunately it looks like this was a strong draft with value throughout the first round and relatively few busts.  Probably still too early to give up on Bishop but he has to step up in 2025.  The apparent failure of Will Wilson to reward the $12 M cost of taking on Zack Cozart's contract makes this draft even more painful for Giants fans.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Two Minor League Contracts

We are still in the early stages of the Hot Stove League.  The GM meetings came and went without any major transactions but they usually lay the groundwork for Winter Meeting deals.   There are a couple of minor league deals with invitations to spring training to report and comment on though.  

Logan Porter C.  DOB:  7/12/1995.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0"/200 lbs.  

2024 AAA(3 teams):  .267/.370/.453, 14 HR, 13.4 BB%, 28.1 K%, 292 PA.

AAAA catcher who is so obscure I forgot he had 85 PA's with the River Cats in 2024.  His stat line is one FZ would love.  His BA was not terrible but clear 3 true outcomes vibes here.  He had positive defensive metrics in a very small MLB sample size in 2023.

Sergio Alcantara IF.  DOB:  7/10/1996.  B-S, T-R.  5'9", 151 lbs.

2024 AAA:  .279/.391/.434, 8 HR, 8 SB, 15.3 BB%, 18.2 K%, 450 PA.

Career MLB:  .209/.281/.343, 12 HR, 4 SB, 8.8 BB%, 26.9 K%, 502 PA.

Intriguing, switch-hitting AAAA IF who last played at the MLB level in 2022.  Although he plays multiple IF positions his best defensive metrics are at SS.  Will replace Donovan Walton on the IF depth charts.

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Baggs stirred the pot again yesterday with a piece in the Athletic about the Giants ownership group cutting payroll for 2025.  Buster Posey refused to take the bait and said he would not comment on payroll.  Controlling owner Greg Johnson released a statement saying there is not set payroll and it all depends on what players are available and how much it costs to sign them.

If I read the tea leaves coming out of Buster's comments at the GM meetings, I would say we should not expect signings of Juan Soto, Blake Snell or even Willy Adames.  The clear signal is the Giants #1 target is Ha Seong Kim who fits Buster's stated vision of emphasizing pitching, defense and contact.  I think Kim is a great fit except we already know he won't be ready to start the season on time due to shoulder surgery.  As we saw too many times with FZ's signings of players coming off injuries, it often takes longer for players to make it all the way back than projected. By the time they are fully healthy and ready to contribute the contract runs out and they end up helping another team.  

I would like to see Buster pursue upgrades via trade.  I spent 6 years waiting for FZ to really impress me with a trade.  He never did.  Now Buster is on the clock.