Hot Stove League Update: Giants Minor Leaguers Elect Free Agency

 At least 11 Giants minor leaguers reportedly declared for free agency per Baseballjeff1 on Bluesky:

Sean Hjelle RHP

Sam Huff C

Hunter Bishop OF

Cole Waites RHP

Max Stassi C

Ethan Small LHP

Chris Wright LHP

Juan Mercedes RHP

Miguel Diaz RHP

Helcris Oliverez LHP

Drew Ellis IF

It's a sad but no unexpected ending for Hunter Bishop, a former first round draft pick from the first draft of the Farhan Zaidi era.  He put up some unusual but interesting stats in his first pro season right after the draft but then saw his career derailed by a string of injuries.  Sean Hjelle is a unique talent due to his 6'11" height but poor on-field results and obvious issues in his personal life threw him off track and it's no surprise to see him hit free agency either.  Cole Waites is a hard-throwing reliever who struggled at the MLB level in a small sample and then suffered an injury.  Not much to say about the others than we wish them the best in finding another organization to continue their careers.  It's always possible some of them resign with the Giants.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Make Two Waiver Claims

 Opening Day of the Hot Stove League was barely starting when the Giants made news by acquiring two players on waiver claims:  Reiver Sanmartin LHP and Justin Dean CF.  To make room on the 40-man roster, the Giants designated Mason Black RHP for assignment.  Let's take a closer look at the newest Giants:

Reiver Sanmartin LHP.  DOB:  4/15/1996.  6' 2", 160 lbs.  1 Option.

AAA:  7-2, 3.34, 67.1 IP, 7.35 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 2.88 GB/FB.

MLB:  0-0, 0.00, 1.2 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 1.50 GB/FB.

Sanmartin kicked around the Reds organization without a lot of success at the MLB level.  The most MLB action he saw was in 2022 when he pitched 57 innings with an ERA of 6.32.  At the minor league level his elite groundball rate makes up for his relatively low K rate.

Justin Dean CF.  DOB:  12/6/1996.  B-R, T-R.  5' 8", 185 lbs.  3 Options.

AAA:  .289/.378/.431, 6 HR, 27 SB, 11.2 BB%, 23.6 K%, 347 PA.

MLB:  .000/.000/.000, 2 PA's.  

If the name sounds familiar, Dean was on the Dodgers postseason roster that just won the World Series.  He is a slap and dash guy who is a plus defender in CF.  Interesting add to a 40 man roster that is already logjammed with multiple fringy MLB outfielders.  

Scouting the Hot Stove League: Free Agent Starting Pitchers

 Fangraphs is out with their top 50 free agent list along with contract estimates.  Adding at least one SP this offseason is a Giants priority so let's look at what's available on the free agent market.  Remember if we use the CBT threshold as the Giants spending limit, They have a total of about $60 M AAV to spend and they have more needs than just adding a SP.

Tier 1:

Dylan Cease RHP.  Age 30.  8-12, 4.55, 168 IP, 11.52 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 3.56 FIP.  Estimated Contract:  5 yr/$130-155 M, $26-31 M AAV.

Gives you innings but ERA has been higher than FIP for past 3 seasons.

Framber Valdez LHP.  Age 32.  13-11, 3.66, 192 IP, 8.77 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 2.57 GB/FB.  Estimated Contract:  5 Yr/$134-150 M, $28-30 AAV.

Makes up for lower K/9 with extreme groundball ratio.  Appeared to hit his catcher with a pitch on purpose last season.

Ranger Suarez LHP.  Age 30.  12-8, 3.20, 157.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.32 GB/FB.  Estimated Contract:  5 Yr/$125-130 M, $25-26 AAV.

Gets by with less than elite stuff with excellent command of a 5-pitch mix.  Has spent time on IL 3 straight seasons and has never pitched 160 innings in a season.

Tier 2:

Michael King RHP.  30 yo.  5-3, 3.44, 73.1 IP, 9.33 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 4.42 FIP.  Estimated Contract: 1 yr/22 M- 4 yr/$88 M.  

Coming off a down season with injuries.  Might just accept a QO from the Padres.  

Merrill Kelly RHP.  37 yo.  12-9, 3.52, 184 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.35 BB/9.  Estimated Contract:  1 yr/$21 M- 2 yr/$32 M.  

37 yo but still a reliable innings-eating SP.

Shota Imanaga LHP.  32 yo.  9-8, 3.73, 144.2 IP, 7.28 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 0.54 GB/FB.  Estimated Contract: 

Extreme flyball pitcher who doesn't get many K's.  That is generally a prescription for disaster.  Imanaga mitigates it with an extremely low walk rate.  Numbers fell off a cliff in the second half last year.

Zac Gallen RHP.  30 yo.  13-15, 4.83, 192 IP, 8.20 K/9, 3.09 BB/9.  Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$36-54 M.  coming off one if his worst seasons.

2025 was the highest ERA of his career.

Tatsuya Imai RHP.  27 yo.  10-5, 1.92, 163.2 IP, 9.79 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB.  Estimated Contract:  4 yr/$64 M-5 yr/$100 M.  

Stats are from the NPB.  

Brandon Woodruff RHP.  32 yo.  7-2, 3.20, 64.2 IP, 11.55 K/9, 1.95 BB/9. Estimated Contract:  2 yr/$34 M-3 yr/$66 M.  

Elite stuff and numbers when healthy.  Has missed a lot of time to injury the last two years.

Chris Bassitt RHP.  36 yo.  11-9, 3.96, 170.1 IP, 8.77 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.  Estimate Contract:  1 yr/$17 M-2 yr/$36 M.

At least 170 IP the last 4 seasons.  Consistently puts up sub-4.00 ERA's.

Tier 3:

Lucas Giolito RHP.  31 yo.  10-4, 3.41, 145 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 4.17 FIP.  Estimated Contract:  2 yr/$28 M-2 yr/$36 M.  

Long considered to have breakout potential. Has never quite lived up to expectations and very much runs hot and cold.

Cody Ponce RHP.  31 yo.  17-1, 1.89, 180.2 IP, 12.55 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 1.30 GB/FB.  Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$16 M-3 yr/$24 M.

Big, hard thrower.  Up and down career.  Reportedly reworked his game and his body last season for the KBO.  Prior to that had mixed results in the NPB.  Can KBO numbers be trusted to translate to MLB?

Tyler Mahle RHP.  31 yo.  6-4, 2.18, 86.2 IP, 6.85 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 3.37 FIP.  Estimated Contract:  2 yr/$26-32 M.

Pitches to contact with some success when healthy.  Has struggled with injuries for the past 4 seasons.

Zack Littell RHP.  30 yo.  10-8, 3.81, 186.2 IP, 6.27 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 4.88 FIP.  Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$20-24 M.

Contact pitcher who can eat innings.  Hated Gabe Kapler and had an on-field meltdown punching his ticket out of San Francisco at the time.  Would Buster Posey hold that against him?

Justin Verlander RHP.  43 yo.  4-11, 3.85, 152 IP, 8.11 IP, 3.08 BB/9, 0.77 GB/FB.  Estimated Contract: 1 yr/$10-15 M

I am sure the Giants would be happy to have him back on another 1 yr/$15 M contract. Get 'er done, Buster then get another SP in this price range.

Comment:  I would think bringing Verlander back plus adding someone like Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt on 1-2 year deals makes a lot of sense for what the Giants rotation needs.  Maybe Mad Max Scherzer who did not make Fangraphs Top 50 FA list.

Scouting the 2026 MLB Amateur Draft: Roch Cholowsky

There can be a lot of downtime between Hot Stove League events.  To fill it, let's get started on building our 2026 MLB Amateur Draft board.  The draft order won't be finalized until after the draft lottery at the Winter Meetings.  The Giants most likely will draft at #15. There is a consensus #1 draft prospect for 2026, UCLA SS Roch Cholowsky.  

Roch Cholowsky SS, College(UCLA):  DOB:  4/5/2005.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  

2024(UCLA):  .308/.399/.500, 8 HR, 6 SB, 24 BB, 34 K, 235 PA

2024(CCBL):  .218/.338/.327, HR, 9 BB, 7 K's, 65 PA.

2025(UCLA):  .353/.480/.710, 23 HR, 7 SB, 45 BB, 30 K, 324 PA.

Complete 5-tool player who is considered a lock to stick at shortstop.  Compact yet powerful swing producing power to all fields.  Able to pull arms in to get around on inside pitches.  Selective at the plate but limits K's.  Barring an unexpected junior season regression has little to no chance of dropping if the Giants remain in the #15 draft slot.

Hot Stove League Update: Opening Day

 The "Hot Stove League" officially opens the day after the World Series ends.  Teams have 5 days to negotiate with their own free agents without having to worry about what other teams are offering.  Free agents drop off 40-man rosters. Players on the 60-day IL are automatically added back onto the 40-man roster.  

Free agents who will drop off the Giants 40-man roster include Justin Verlander RHP, Dominic Smith 1B/DH/LF, and Wilmer Flores 1B/DH.  I highly doubt the Giants have any intention of bringing Flores back but might have interest in making offers to Verlander and Smith.  

Players on the 60-Day IL who will be added to the 40-man roster today include Erik Miller LHP, Randy Rodriguez RHP and Tom Murphy C.  I would think Murphy will be immediately released with Miller and Rodriguez staying on.  Miller should be available to play by spring training.  Rodriguez will go back on the 60-day IL in the spring and remain their for all of 2026 due to Tommy John surgery.

Patrick Bailey C and Ryan Walker RHP just missed the "super two" cut-off and are not eligible for arbitration leaving just three arbitration-eligible players:  Andrew Knizner C, Joey Lucchesi LHP and JT Brubaker RHP.  Projected arbitration salaries are Brubaker at $2.1 M, Lucchesi at $ 2 M Knizner at $1.3 M.  I doubt the Giants want to go to an arbitration hearing with any of them but should try to re-sign them before the contract tender deadline.  

Having reviewed the Giants organizational deph charts through the postseason, let's focus on where we found needs heading into the Hot Stove League and in order of how critical the need is:

1.  Starting Pitcher:  Right now the Giants have just two reliable SP's on the roster with a bevy of intriguing but unestablished young hurlers plus Brubaker.  They have a critical need to add at least one established #3 or better SP and could use another less expensive SP similar to Brubaker.  I rank that as their #1 Hot Stove League need.

2.  Closer:  In the wake of the midseason trades of Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, the Giants still have a better than decent bullpen but Ryan Walker is the only pitcher on the roster with signficant Closer experience.  After his struggles last season he cannot be the presumptive Closer on the first day of spring training.  Past signings of Armando Benitez RHP and Mark Melancon RHP scarred me as much as anyone but the Giants find themselves in a position where they have to do it again if they don't want to squander the money spent to build a competitive core.  

3.  Right Field:  While the Giants have multiple candidates for the starting right field position there are none who can be counted on to close a gaping hole in the lineup.  If the Giants are going to add a position player in the offseason, right field has to be the priority over second base.  I agree with Owner Greg Johnson's comments that they have to be wary of locking in too many simultaneous long term contracts there may be lower cost options than Kyle Tucker OF through free agency or more likely trade.

3. DH:  The Giants are in a weird position here in that Devers can DH but will probably be happier playing first base at least half the time.  Buster has said he prefers to rotate position players through the DH to give them days off but then their position has to be covered with an adequate bat or and already marginal lineup becomes shorter.  They also have an elite prospect in Bryce Eldridge who, like Devers, is limited to 1B and DH.  I am in the camp who thinks Eldridge needs more minor league PA's before you pair him up with Devers in a same-handed 1B/DH platoon so Buster needs to go out and get a bat, any position will do, who can DH until Eldridge is ready.

4.  Second Base:  If the Giants fill the hole in RF they can probably roll with Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss at 2B. Ideally one of them would bat left but the advantage Schmitt and Koss have is they can both double as utility infielders.  If right field proves too difficult to upgrade, they second base becomes more of a concern.  If it proves easier to upgrade there, such as a trade for Brendan Donovan, they might have to pull the trigger on it. 

5.  Reserve Catcher:  I'm actually OK with Knizner as back up catcher. He hit over .300 in the second half in a small sample.  Reserve catcher is a lower priority position and you are not going to attract a starting caliber catcher to be the reserve behind Patrick Bailey.  But if Knizner forces the Giants to go to an arbitration hearing, they could move on and look to fill the position with someone else.

While there is some chatter on the internets about trading Heliot Ramos or Jung Hoo Lee, the rest of the roster looks set with a reasonable hope for several players to improve on their 2025 performances.  On the other hand, Buster Posey has been so bold in his first year as POBO, I would not put it past him to swing a blockbuster trade to shake up and reset the roster. I would love that but admit it's not clear where and how that would lead to an upgrade.

Arizona Fall League Update; Tony Vitello News Conference

The big news for Giants fans out of the Arizona Fall League is Parks Harber who is absolutely raking with the third best OPS in the league.  His batting line is .400/.563/.800, 3 HR, 11 BB, 12 K, 46 PA.  Harber came to the Giants from the Yankees in the Camilo Doval trade.  He is corner IF who bats right.   He's pretty much raked everywhere he's played and posted a .333/454/.644 line with 7 HR in 108 PA's for the A+ Eugene Emeralds after the trade.  He was an undrafted free agent signed by the Yankees out of UNC in 2024.  It's not clear what kind of future a corner IF has in the Giants organization but he is not eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until December 2027 so no rush to add him to the 40-man roster.  Here are some stat lines for other Giants prospects in the AFL:

Maui Ahuna SS:  .189/.268/.216.

Walker Martin 3B- .152/.222/.212.

Ryan Murphy RHP:  1-2, 5.40, 10 IP, 8 BB, 8 K.

Ricardo Estrada LHP:  0-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 1 BB, 5 K's.

Juan Sanchez LHP- 2-0, 1.50, 6 IP, 2 BB, 9 K's.  

Spencer Miles RHP:  1-0,  0.00, 5 IP, 1 BB, 7 K's. 

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I watched the video of Tony Vitello's introductory news conference.  He and Buster Posey were asked over and over about whether his managing style will translate from college to MLB.  I thought both men answered as best they could.  Buster acknowledged there are risks to hiring Tony but rightly pointed out there are risks no matter who you hire and he feels Tony has a chance to be a special manager.  

What I found most impressive was how he seems to connect to the people and community around him no matter where he is.  Each and every time he mentioned somewhere he has been in his career he connected the experience to specific people and specific characteristics of the community.  Based on his friends and family who attended and were acknowledged he maintains connections long after he leaves a situation.  For example his host family from when he spent two years in Salinas were his guests at the news conference.  

As always and as Buster Posey acknowledged, the proof is in the pudding, so to speak, but based on this small sample, Tony Vitello appears to be a far better communicator than either Gabe Kapler or Bob Melvin.  He mostly avoided talking in cliches and when he did, he made an effort to explain what the cliche means to him and to give examples of how he puts it into action.  He made it clear he cares about his players as people beyond what they can give on the field and maintains contact with them and cheers for them long after he coached them.  

All in all I felt he crushed the news conference and got himself off to a great start as Manager of the San Francisco Giants.

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Closer

As in past depth charts, it's virtually impossible to make a depth chart for all potential relievers so we confine it to pitchers who have a reasonable chance to close out games.  Another gaping hole in the Giants roster in 2025 was the role of Closer.  Ryan Walker held it on Opening Day but series of disastrous Blown Saves led to a revolving door of candidates, none of whom made a convincing case for the job in 2026.  Who are the "in-house" possibilities?  Our methodology is to look at pitchers who recorded more than one Save last season as well as non-closer pitchers who have a reasonable chance to move into the role.  

MLB:

Ryan Walker:  Recorded 17 Saves but also 7 Blown Saves, 7 Losses and a 4.11 ERA.  It's unclear how the organization views him going forward but I don't think there are many fans who want to see him walk out of the Bullpen in the 9'th inning on Opening Day.  

Spencer Bivens:  3 for 3 in Save Opps.  Pitched in multiple roles in 2025 appeared to be out of gas around midseason after a series of multi-inning appearances.  Velocity seemed to tick up to 96-97 in single-inning roles and a case could be made that he was the most effective Closer in a couple of late-season opps.  

Tristan Beck:  Another guy who ate innings in multi-inning roles but also recorded 2 Saves in 2 late-season opportunities.

Joel Peguero:  The Triple-Digit Man.  A spring phenom, he struggled in AAA for much of the season but showed improvement.  Showed he could dominate with the fastball after a late-season call up leading to speculation he might be a legit Closer candidate.

Randy Rodriguez was lights out in a setup role but struggled as the Closer.  On the IL with TJ surgery for all of 2026.

AAA:

Ryan Watson:  9/13 Saves, 4.26 ERA.

Miguel Diaz:  9/10 Saves, 3.45 ERA.

Justin Garza:  6/7 Saves, 6.11 ERA.

All 3 of these guys may be minor league free agents.  Diaz may be worth bringing back for depth.

AA:  

Tyler Vogel:  6/6 Saves, 1.13 ERA.

Evan Gates:  5/6 Saves, 3.23 ERA.

Braxton Roxby:  3/3 Saves, 1.20 ERA.

Trent Harris:  2/2 Saves, 1.69 ERA.

Marques Johnson:  2/4 Saves, 2.90 ERA.

Some of these guys struggled after late promotion to AAA.

A+:

Cameron Pferrer:  6/6 Saves, 2.20 ERA.

Austin Strickland:  5/7 Saves, 4.45 ERA.

Darien Smith:  2/2 Saves, 2.59 ERA.

A:  

Ben Peterson:  7/8 Saves, 4.18 ERA.

Cade Vernon:  7/11 Saves, 1.60 ERA.

Cole Hillier:  4/6 Saves, 2.78 ERA.

I was impressed with Hillier when I saw him pitch.

ACL: 

Jose Bello:  2/2 Saves, 2.00 ERA.

Came over from the Red Sox in the Devers trade.

DSL:

Lender Bracho:  6/12 Saves, 4.05 ERA.

Carlos Toro:  2/3 Saves, 2.15 ERA.

Jose G Gonzalez:  6/9 Saves, 5.12 ERA.

Randry DeLeon:  3/4 Saves, 3.66 ERA.

Summary:  The Giants are, once again faced with the need to acquire a reliable Closer via free agency or trade.  They cannot go into next season with Ryan Walker as the presumptive Closer and there are no obviously reliable options on the current roster or in the organization.