Monday, November 4, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Closer

It's pretty much impossible to do a depth chart on all relievers, especially when you get down into the minor leagues, but there is usually a fairly clear hierarchy of Closers.  let's break it down:

MLB:

Ryan Walker RHP:  10-4, 1.91, 80 IP, 11.14 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 10 Saves, 14 SvO.
Camilo Doval RHP:  5-3, 4.88, 59 IP, 11.90 K/9, 5.95 BB/9, 23 Saves, 28 SvO.

Interesting that while Walker was the far better pitcher in 2024, he only blew 1 less Save in half the number of opportunities.  There was that one game late in the season where Doval appeared to have no total loss of control of the strike zone then after a prolonged discussion between Melvin and the Umps over some technicality Doval suddenly start throwing strikes again.  I would say the Closer role is Walker's to lose but feel there is a high probability of Doval regaining it during the season.  The Giants should tender Doval a contract and they should not trade him as they would almost certainly be selling low on a high-ceiling talent.  If forced to name a third string, I think I would go with Landon Roupp RHP if he is not in the rotation.  Jordan Hicks RHP is also a possibility if he is not in the rotation.  Spencer Bivens RHP led the AAA River Cats in Saves so he may be a possibility too.

AAA:

Tyler Myrick RHP:  3-2, 3.18, 34 IP, 19 BB, 37 K, 7 Saves, 8 SvO.

Myrick had a strong minor league season and seems poised for a call up sometime in 2025.

AA:  

Nick Garcia RHP:  0-2, 1.54, 35 IP, 14 BB, 40 K, 5 Saves, 5 SvO.

Garcia was drafted in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last year.  Would the Giants add him to the 40 man roster to protect him from the major league phase this year?

A+:

Cameron Cotter RHP:  6-4, 2.27, 47.2 IP, 9 BB, 48 K, 5 Saves, 9 SvO.
Hunter Dula RHP:  1-2, 3.19, 36.2 IP, 12 BB, 37 K, 5 Saves, 8 SvO.

A

Cole Hillier RHP:  4-4, 3.70, 58.1 IP, 34 BB, 62 K, 6 Saves, 10 SvO.
Trent Harris RHP:  3-1, 1.14, 31.2 IP, 12 BB, 44 K, 4 Saves, 4 SvO.

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Starting Pitcher

If there is a strength in the Giants organization right now, it's young starting pitching both at the MLB level and upper minor leagues but with Blake Snell likely leaving via free agency, Logan Webb stands alone as the only true rellable frontline starter on the staff. 

MLB:

Logan Webb RHP:  13-10, 3.47, 7.56 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 204.2 IP.
Robbie Ray LHP:  3-2, 4.70, 12.62 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, 30.2 IP.
Jordan Hicks RHP:  4-7, 4.10, 7.88 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 109.2 IP.
Hayden Birdsong RHP:  5-6, 4.75, 11.00 K/9, 5.38 BB/9, 72 IP.
Kyle Harrison LHP:  7-7, 4.56, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 124.1 IP.

Landon Roupp RHP:  1-2, 3.58, 8.40 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 50.1 IP.
Tristan Beck RHP:  0-0, 1.69, 7.88 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 16 IP.
Keaton Winn RHP:  3-8, 7.16, 7.81 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 55.1 IP.
Mason Black RHP:  1-5, 6.44, 7.68 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 36.1 IP.
Trevor McDonald RHP: 0-0, 0.00, 3.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3 IP.

There is deep depth here, enough to consider trading from it to upgrade other positions.  Very thin at the top though as Logan Webb is the only reliable established SP and his arm is starting to accumulate some serious mileage.  Acquiring at least one more proven top end SP should be a priority for Buster this winter.

AAA:  

Carson Whisenhunt LHP:  3-5, 5.42, 11.61 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 134.1 IP.
Carson Seymour RHP:  7-10, 4.82, 8.84 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 134.1 IP.
Carson Ragsdale RHP:  2-4, 5.03, 9.56 K/9, 4.36 BB/9, 53.2 IP.
John Bertrand LHP:  1-0, 1.80, 5.40 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 10 IP.

More depth.  Any of these 4 could make the MLB club at some point in 2025.

AA:  

Nick Sinacola RHP:  5-2, 4.08,  68.1 IP, 7.77 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 68.1 IP.
Jack Choate LHP: 1-4, 5.82,  10.85 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 34 IP.
Seth Lonsway LHP: 2-1, 1.38, 7.16 K/9, 1.93 K/9, 32.2 IP.
Dylan Cumming RHP: 3-7, 5.03,  9.62 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 82.1 IP.
Wil Jensen RHP: 4-5, 3.43, 10.61 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 84 IP.

My impression is everyone in this group has a relatively low ceiling.

A+:  

Joe Whitman LHP:  2-3, 4.96, 9.23 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 52.2 IP.
Dylan Carmouche LHP:  0-2, 5.34, 11.57 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 30.1 IP.
Manuel Mercedes RHP:  4-9, 5.28, 6.91 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 116 IP.
Cesar Perdomo LHP:  3-6, 4.00, 9.17 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 54 IP.
Hayden Wynja LHP:  2-3, 4.95, 9.43 K/9, 3.67 BB/9, 56.1 IP.
Esmerlin Vinicio LHP:  1-4, 7.40, 8.14 K/9, 7.03 BB/9, 24.1 IP.
Mikell Manzano RHP:  1-0, 4.05, 10.80 K.9, 0.00 BB/9, 6.2 IP.  

A somewhat disappointing season for WhitmanMercedes is a classic sinker/groundball pitcher with low K rates who is subject to the BABIP gods.  Perdomo has a below-average FB but good command of multiple pitches.  Wynja is 6' 9" and lefties that tall don't grow on trees.

A:  

Cale Lansville RHP:  3-4, 4.36, 8.35 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 74.1 IP.
Josh Bostick RHP:  4-7, 4.70, 10.15 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 107.1 IP.
Gerelmi Maldonado RHP: DNP
Ryan Vanderhei RHP: 2-3, 3.58, 8.84 K/9, 4.78 BB/9, 37.2 IP.
Ubert Mejias RHP:  4-7, 4.70, 6.24 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 122.2 IP.

Lansville has had some big games in the AFL.  Bostick has a MLB frame with inconsistent command.  Hope to see Gerelmi on the comeback trail in 2025.  Vanderhei has a projectable frame.

ACL:  None

DSL:

Argenis Cayama RHP: 0-1, 2.21, 10.18 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, 20.1 IP.

Don't know much about him except this was his age 1 season and he got a mention in Baseball America.

Summary:

The Giants are well-stocked with young pitching in the upper levels of the organization but have concentrated heavily on position players in the last several drafts and international signing cycles so almost no serious pitching prospects in the rookie/short season leagues.

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Hot Stove Update: Zack Minasian is Posey's Pick for GM; Soler Traded Again

It didn't take long for the Hot Stove to heat up as the morning after the World Series ended. We saw a flurry of options picked up and declined plus a couple more significant moves.  

I'm guessing Buster Posey knew who his GM was at least a few days ago and was waiting for the end of the postseason to announce it.  He went inside the organization to elevate Zack Minasian from VP of Professional Scouting to GM.  While Zack has an interesting and extensive pedigree, I think that quite irrelevant to the decision.   What I think is relevant is he was one of Farhan Zaidi's first hires out of the Brewers organization and FZ promoted him to the professional scouting role.  I also think it's relevant that his experience is on the professional scouting side as opposed to amateur.  To me, this suggests Buster want to hit the ground running at the upcoming GM and Winter Meetings and wants someone in the GM seat who already has extensive knowledge of the players they may pursue in trades and free agent signings.  That seems like a smart move on Buster's part, especially if his agenda is not to work through a 5-year rebuild.  

*************************************************************************************

Poor Jorge Soler is getting passed around like a hot potato.  The other very early Hot Stove League news was the Braves trading him to the Angels for Griffin Canning RHP.  The trade was straight up, no money changing hands and no other players.  The move makes more sense from the Braves end as Soler was redundant with Marcel Ozuna and they get an innings-eating SP in return.  The Angels had the second worst pitching in MLB last season and the third worst hitting, so this trade seems like a bit of wheel spinning.  I will say the free agent pitching class this Hot Stove League season seems a lot deeper than the hitting class so maybe the Angels figure Canning is easier to replace than signing a hitter or two.

Giants Depth Charts: Designated Hitter

Ironically, despite the double of the number of available DH jobs there are fewer dedicated full-time DH's in the game as the industry has moved toward using the role as a rotational way to give position players a rest day while keeping them in the lineup.  I tend to favor a full time DH as it offers a chance to significantly upgrade the lineup with a hitter who would otherwise be a liability on the field.  

Last season FZ went out and signed a DH, Jorge Soler, who got off to a slow start with disappointing power numbers.  I read somwhere that Soler blamed his power outage on Oracle Park but to my eye the biggest problem was while he hit the ball hard, he rarely got enough loft on the ball to hit it out of any park.  As the season progressed, Bob Melvin put him in the leadoff spot where he thrived and was one of the better hitters in a weak lineup.  FZ traded him at the deadline and didn't really replace him in a move that seemed both petulant and running up the white flag on the season.   The trade did clear $12 M/yr from payroll for the next two seasons which can now be allocated elsewhere but it not like it was an albatross contract.  

The other point I'll make about the DH position is while you want to fill it with your best available hitter who otherwise would not contribute in the field, all things being equal I think if you use a primary DH, it should preferably be a lefty batter to give you the matchup advantage 75% of the PA's which is why I advocated for Brandon Belt for the the role last season.  Buster might still want to consider bringing the bigger Brandon back for one more rodeo at the DH position in 2025.

Of players currently on the 40-man roster, Jerar Encarnacion is probably #1 on the depth chart. Although part of me is curious to see what Jerar could do with 600 PA's as DH you really want a more seasoned hitter in the role.  Wilmer Flores would also be a consideration if the Giants let him hang around after he exercises his player option.

I also don't count out David Villar, Marco Luciano or Wade Meckler for the role and I am sure Bryce Eldridge will do his share of DH'ing after he makes his MLB debut.

Free agents who MLBTR lists as DH's includes J. D. Martinez(37 yo), Andrew McCutchen(38 yo), Anthony Santander(30 yo, also listed for RF), Justin Turner(40 yo) Tyler O'Neill(30 yo) and Jesse Winker(30 yo).  Not exactly an exciting bunch there.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Right Field

 Right field is a position primed for upgrade this offseason.  

MLB:

Mike Yastrzemski:  .231/.302/.437, 9 3B, 18 HR, 3 SB, 474 PA.
Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.  

YtY is the current incumbent, possibly in a R-L platoon with Jerar or Luis Matos.  This is one of the more likely positions for Buster to look for an upgrade starting with the consensus #1 free agent on the market, Juan Soto.  Speaking of Juan Soto, is it just me or has his defense in much easier RF's to play been disastrous in the World Series?  Other free agent RF's include Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander.  If one is signed by the arbitration tender deadline, I could see YtY not getting a contract offer or he could be moved to a 4'th OF role backing up all 3 positions.

AAA:  

Hunter Bishop:  .248/.318/.388, 9 HR, 10 SB, 413 PA.  

If Bishop can build on a healthy season after missing all of 2023, I could see him getting a midseason call up depending on organizational needs at the MLB level.  2025 is probably his last chance to find traction on his pro career.

AA:  

Victor Bericoto:  .261/.309/.384, 11 HR, 6 SB, 479 PA.

As commenters have said, don't sleep on Victor Bericoto.  He's a hitter.  I could see him busting out in Sacramento and getting a midseason callup, again determined by needs at the MLB level.

A+:

James Tibbs III:  A:  .415/.429/.512, 2.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 42 PA.  A+:  .134/.216/.239, 2 HR, 9.5 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.  
Rodolfo Nolasco:  .234/.331/.418, 10 HR, 9 SB, 10.9 BB%, 35.3 K%, 275 PA.

Tibbs had a disappointing pro debut for a first round draft pick out of a major college conference, but it's a small sample.  He needs to start 2025 at A+ and get his K rate below 30% while keeping his BB% closer to 10 than 0.  Nolasco has in interesting power/speed combo but needs to cut down on his K rate.

A:  

Cesar Quintas:  .228/.320/.386, 12 HR, 3 SB, 8.6 BB%, 21.8 K%, 440 PA.

Saw him play. Good looking young hitter.  Smoked a HR to LF that went out on a line.  K/BB looks good but needs to hit for more average.  Maybe his low BABIP of .270 will positively regress?  

ACL:

None

DSL

Carlos Concepcion:  .244/.362/.366, 3 HR, 7 SB, 11.6 BB%, 30.7 K%, 199 PA.

18 yo who regressed a little in his second DSL season.

Summary:

Opportunity to upgrade RF seems to align with available free agents.  Buster's challenge is getting one signed.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Centerfield

On paper, this critically important position is locked down by for at least the next 3 seasons by Jung Hoo Lee but he is coming off a major injury/surgery, fortunately on his non-throwing shoulder.  

MLB:

Jung Hoo Lee:  .262/.310/.331, 2 HR, 2 SB, 6.3 BB%, 8.2 K%, 156 PA.
Grant McCray:  .202/.238/.379, 5 HR, 5 SB, 4.6 BB%, 43.1 K%, 130 PA.
Luis Matos:  .202/.238/.379, 5 HR, 3.2 BB%, 15.4 K%, 156 PA.
Wade Meckler:  AAA:  .288/.357/.508, 8 HR, 3 SB, 196 PA.

Giants are in a bit of a weird situation in that Lee is paid a whole lot of money to be the starting CF for at least the next 3 years(I think he has a opt out after his 4'th season.  The weirdness comes from Grant McCray obviously having louder tools and a higher ceiling.  That situation can be easily defused by giving McCray the salt he needs with more time in AAA.  The other reason for optimism is almost everybody expected a transition period from the KBO to MLB for Lee.  There were signs he might be coming out of his early season struggles with .310 BA over his last 7 games before he was hurt, but does he start over now?  Also note Mike Yastrzemski would be #2 except he's the starter in RF.  One likely scenario is the Giants sign a RF in free agency and move YtY to a 4'th OF role in which he would be the #2 CF.  Less likely the Giants will not tender him a contract offer at the arbitration deadline and he becomes a free agent.

AAA:

Hunter Bishop:  (2 teams) .245/.315/.380, 11 HR, 15 SB, 518 PA.  

Bishop is probably not a CF at the MLB level but played about 1/3 of his games there in the minors this season.

AA

Carter Howell:  .272/.347/.391, 30 2B, 7 3B, 3 HR, 15 SB, 9.3 BB%, 19.6 K%, 505 PA.
Turner Hill:  A+:  .270/.383/.414, 3 HR, 15 SB, 13.5 BB%, 10.1 K%, 207 PA.  AA:  .266/.364/.324, 14 SB, 10.8 BB%, 14.0 K%, 222 PA.

A couple of UDFA's who more than held their own in a notoriously hitter-unfriendly environment.  No defensive scouting reports but both appear to have enough speed to play CF.  Both need a bit more HR power.

A+:

Jonah Cox:  A:  .297/.412/.384, 2 HR, 38 SB, 13.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 275 PA.  A+:  .225/.324/.350, 3 HR, 20 SB, 11.9 BB%, 31.9 K%, 185 PA.

A:  

Bo Davidson:  .328/.438/.608, 7 3B, 9 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 23.9 K%, 226 PA.
Jose Ortiz:  ACL:  .306/.455/.400, HR, 10 SB, 12.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 112 PA.  

Bo Davidson is another UDFA with some size and tools.  Probably too advanced for A ball.  Getting a few more higher level PA's in the AFL.  Should start next season at A+ and we'll get a better feel for his potential.  Ortiz was a HS draftee out of Puerto Rico in 2023 so still has some time to develop.

ACL:

Rayner Arias:  .250/.371/.364, 8 2B, 3 SB, 11.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 105 PA. 

Don't forget about Rayner Arias.  One of the most highly rated international prospects from the 2023 cycle.  Early development slowed by a wrist injury.  Looking forward to seeing what he can do another winter of recovery.

DSL:

Oliver Tejada:  .300/.405/.488, 5 HR, 13 SB, 10.7 BB%, 18.5 K%, 205 PA.
Miguel Blanco:  .255/.398/.336, 5 SB, 17.5 BB%, 20.5 K%, 171 PA.
Luis Frias:  .224/.327/.329, HR, 13 SB, 10.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, 143 PA.

Baseball America had high praise for the Giants 2024 international signing cycle.  Tejada was one of those signings who performed well in his pro debut.  Blanco and Frias are 19 and 20 yo respectively and probably too old to be considered Dominican Dandies.

Summary

The Giants have a lot riding on a comeback from Jung Hoo Lee after a devastating injury.  Grant McCray has a higher ceiling but needs more seasoning.  There are some intriguing prospects in between but Rayner Arias is the next highly rated CF prospect but he's been long projected to end up in a corner OF position. Time will tell.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Left Field

Outfield depth charts get tricky since many outfielders can play more than one defensive OF position.  The rule for this exercise is if a player is listed as the starter at one position they can't be a back up at another position but a back up player can back up multiple position.  Got it?  Good!  

MLB:  

Heliot Ramos:  .269/322/.469, 22 HR, 6 SB, 518 PA.  
Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.
Wade Meckler:  Minors(5 teams):  .280/.366/.423, 9 HR, 9 SB, 383 PA.

Ramos had a breakthrough season and was one of the more consistent producers at the plate.  His numbers did regress some in the second half, but did not crater.  Can he apply the lessons he learned from this season and take it to the next level in 2025?  He certainly deserves that opportunity and is the presumptive staring LF.  Encarnacion has tremendous raw power but needs to cut down on the K's to turn it into game power.  Wade Meckler put on an impressive power surge over the final 6 weeks of the season in the minors. The rest of his game has always been solid so he deserves another look at the MLB level at some point.

AAA:  

Hunter Bishop:  .245/.316/.386, 9 HR, 10 SB, 413 PA.  

This was by far Bishop's best pro season.  His development has been delayed by COVID and a series of injuries.  Will the Giants keep him around for another season to see if he can build on his modest success?

AA:

Ismael Munguia:  AA:  .317/.404/.461, 5 HR, 11 SB, 194 PA.  AAA:  .250/.368/.368, 2 HR, 7 SB, 178 PA.
Jairo Pomares:  .238/.280/.434, 12 HR, 9 SB, 336 PA.
Matt Higgins:  .262/.339/.330, HR, 2 SB, 119 PA.

A+:

Rodolfo Nolasco:  .234/.331/.418, 10 HR, 9 SB, 275 PA.
Alexander Suarez:  .282/.323/.475, 9 HR, 15 SB, 217 PA.
Scott Bandura:  A:  .276/.389/.362, 5 SB, 126 PA.  A+:  .227/.332/.374, 6 HR, 19 SB, 247 PA.

Nolasco was acquired from the Pirates in May for Daulton Jeffries in The Churn.  He's got some tools but needs to make more contact.  Suarez is as tooled up as anyone in the organization but has developed slowly.  Bandura also has some tools but needs to get bigger and stronger.

A:  

Lisbel Diaz: ACL:  .329/.411/.539, 4 HR, 90 PA.  A:  .279/.333/.433, 6 HR, 8 SB, 255 PA.
Jakob Christian:  .267/.378/.500, HR, 37 PA.  

Diaz is going to jump way up on prospect lists after an excellent age 18 season.  Christian is a big college slugger who needs a bigger pro sample to get a read on.

Summary:  

Left Field looks like Heliot's job to lose for the next 4-5 seasons.  I am excited long term for Lisbel Diaz but he has at least 2-3 seasons of development ahead of him.