Scouting the Hot Stove League: Free Agent Hitters

 I think we all agree that as presently constructed, the Giants roster needs at least one more bat and probably two in order to be competitive in 2026.  Short of a major roster makeover, there are several positions where a bat could be added including 1B/DH(assuming Bryce Eldridge isn't quite ready), 2B and RF which still leaves a fairly long list of potential additions.  We'll start with some of the top free agent bats on the market:

Kyle Tucker RF.  DOB:  1/17/1997.  B-L, T-R.  6' 4", 212 lbs.  .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 25 SB, 14.6 BB%, 14.7 K%.  MLBTR projected contract:  11 yr/$400 M.

Top player on the market but coming off a down season featuring two injuries and an extended midseason slump.  This is the second season in a row he missed significant time with injuries.  Is that in itself a red flag?  The Giant most glaring hole is in RF so he is a perfect fit, albeit not a great defender there, but can they or should they take on another long term mega contract, especially one with some obvious negatives?

Bo Bichette SS/2B.  DOB:  3/5/1998.  B-R, T-R.  5', 11", 190 lb.  .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 4 SB, 6.4 BB%, 14.5 K%, 628 PA.  MLBTR Projected contract:  8 yr/$208 M.  Nice bounceback season after a disastrous, injury-marred 2024, but missed time at the end of the season with a PCL sprain.  Performed well in the World Series.  Does not grade out well on defense at SS but the Giants would want him to play 2B anyway where he would form a dynamic up-the-middle pairing with Willy Adames.  MLBTR projects him to be considerably more affordable than Kyle Tucker but I wonder if they are selling him short?

Munetaka Murakami 3B/1B.  DOB:  2/2/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 213 lbs.  JPCL:  .273/.379/.663, 22 HR, 32 BB, 64 K, 224 PA.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  8 yr/180 M(plus posting fee).  

Slugging corner IF who is probably only a fit for the Giants if Bryce Eldridge is traded for cost-controlled pitching.  Namesake of the first Japanese MLB player who played for the Giants.

Cody Bellinger OF.  DOB:  7/13/1995.  B-L, T-L.  6' 3", 204 lbs.  .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 13 SB, 8.7 BB%, 13.7 K%, 656 PA.  MLBTR projected contract:  5 yr/140 M.  

If MLBTR's projection is close to accurate, and they have an excellent track record of accurate projections, Bellinger is way more affordable than Kyle Tucker and you could make a case he is a better all-around player.  Athleticism and versatility make him an obvious great fit for the Giants OF.  Buster should be kicking tires on this one.

Kyle Schwarber DH.  DOB:  3/5/1993.  B-L, T-R.  5' 11", 229 lbs.  .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 10 SB, 14.9 BB%, 27.2 K%, 724 PA.  MLBTR projected contract:  5 yr/$135 M.  

Power, power and more power!  Positional limitations make him a fit only if Bryce Eldridge is traded.  But man!  Could the Giants ever use a power bat like that in the lineup?  Eldridge should be so lucky as to ever hit like that!

Pete Alonso 1B/DH.  DOB:  12/7/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 245 lbs.  .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 8.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 709 PA.  MLBTR projected contract:  4 YR/$110 M.  

Again, probably only a fit if Eldridge is traded, but would make a nice R-L 1B/DH combo with Devers and with power numbers Eldridge can only dream on.

Josh Naylor 1B/DH.  DOB:  6/22/1997.  B-L, T-L.  5'10", 235 lbs.  .292/.360/.447, 20 HR, 5.2 BB%, 16.2 K%, 604 PA.  MLBTR projected contract:  5 yr/$90 M.

More of a contact hitter with power than a pure power hitter, but Buster likes contact.  Affordable contract projection.  Same situation with Bryce Eldridge.  Hey! I am starting to like the idea of trading Eldridge for pitching!  

Trent Grisham CF.  DOB:  11/1/1996.  B-L, T-L.  5', 10", 221 lbs.  .235/.348/.464, 34 HR, 14.1 BB%, 23.6 K%, 581 PA.  MLBTR projected contract:  4 yr/$66 M.  

Coming off a career year with the Yankees so we are buying high here.  Did the short porch goose his power?  If Buster is really looking to upgrade OF D, he is an elite defender in CF if the Giants are willing to move Jung Hoo Lee out of the position.

Kazuma Okamoto 3B/1B.  DOB:  6/30/1996.  B-R, T- R.  6' 0", 212 lbs.  JPL: .322/.411/.581, 15 HR, 33 BB, 33 K, 314 PA.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  4 yr/$66 M.

Kind of a poor man's version of Murakami.  Older, B-R, Not as much power.  Probably not a fit for the Giants.

Jorge Polanco 2B/3B, DH.  DOB:  7/5/1993.  B-S, T-R.  6' 0", 208 lbs.  .265/.326/.495, 26 HR, 6 SB, 8.0 BB%, 15.6 K%, 524 PA.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  3 yr/$42 M.  

More of a DH than position player by now but a B-S DH with some power who doesn't K a lot would be an asset.....again, assuming Eldridge isn't ready or trade bait for a pitcher.

Ha Seong Kim SS/2B.  DOB:  10/17/1995.  B-R, T-R.  5' 10", 200 lbs.  .234/.304/.345, 5 HR, 6 SB, 8.2 BB%, 16.3 K%, 191 PA.  MLBTR projected contract:  2 yr/$30 M.

Missed 2/3 of season recovering from shoulder surgery then got traded at the deadline.  Would playing on the same team as his buddy, Jung Hoo Lee, help both players?  Is he enough of an upgrade over Schmitt or Koss to warrant the contract?

Harrison Bader OF.  DOB:  6/3/1994.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 210 lbs.  .277/.347/.449, 17 HR, 11 SB, 7.8 BB%, 27.1 K%.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  2 yr/$26 M.  

Solves the CF defense problem but not the strikeout problem.  Signing team will buy high on his best season since 2021.

Luis Arraez 1B/DH.  DOB:  4/9/1997.  B-L, T-R.  5' 10", 175 lbs.  .292/.327/.392, 8 HR, 11 SB, 5.0 BB%, 3.1 K%, 675 PA.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  2 yr/$24 M.  

Throwback to when BA was king.  Rarely walks, never strikes out.  If Buster is serious about reducing K's, Arraez is a perfect fit.  Probably limited to DH on the Giants.

Gleyber Torres 2B.  DOB:  12/13/1996.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 205 lbs.  .256/.358/.387, 16 HR, 13.5 BB%, 16.1 K%, 628 PA.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  1 yr/$22.5 M.  

Probably looking for another 1 yr contract to try to recapture the 38 HR's in 2019 which are rapidly fading in his rearview mirror.  Once one of the most hyped prospects ever in the Yankees system, has settled into a good, not great, 2B.  Oracle Park is notoriously not a destination for hitters looking for one big season.

Willi Castro UT.  DOB:  4/24/1997.  B-S, T-R.  6' 0", 206 lbs.  .226/.313/.366, 10 HR, 9 SB, 8.8 BB%, 24.4 K%, 454 PA.  MLBTR Projected Contract:  2 yr/$14 M.  

Numbers cratered after a deadline trade to the Cubs.  Versatility is his calling card.

Bargain Bins:

Paul Goldschmidt

Josh Bell

Rhys Hoskins

Austin Hays

Max Kepler

Starling Marte

Yoan Moncada

Cedric Mullins

Marcell Ozuna

Miguel Rojas

Mike Yastrzemski

Dominic Smith

Comment:  You have to squint really hard to see any of these players being a fit for the Giants.  A lot of the scenarios would block Bryce Eldridge.  Trading him might be a good baseball decision but would be a bitter disappointment to large segment of the fanbase.  I'm thinking Cody Bellinger makes the most sense but Giants seem set on prioritizing pitching.  Hard to see anyone else improving D while not sacrificing hitting.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Find A Trade For Mason Black

The Giants traded recently DFA'd Mason Black RHP to the Royals for Logan Martin RHP.  Who is Logan Martin?  Glad you asked:

Logan Martin RHP:  DOB:  7/17/2001.  6' 1", 185 lbs.  Rule 5 Draft Eligible Dec. 2026.

A+:  8-4, 3.45, 91.1 IP, 7.69 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB.  

Scouting reports are sketchy but he seems to throw a mid-90's 4-seam fastball, cutter and slider from a low arm slot.  He should start 2026 in AA.  The trade gives the Giants a decent prospect with a year of development time before he must be added to the 40-man roster or exposed to the Rule 5 Draft in return for a player who ran out of time in the organization and was DFA'd.  That is always a good trade as you basically get something for nothing.

Scouting the 2026 MLB Amateur Draft: Justin Lebron

Justin Lebron SS, College(Alabama).  DOB:  11/3/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 175 lbs.  

2024:  .338/.429/.546, 12 HR, 7 SB, 20 BB, 53 K, 254 PA.  

2025:  .316/.421/.636, 18 HR, 17 SB, 35 BB, 68 K, 281 PA.  

5-tool shortstop who started from day one of his freshman season at Alabama.  Was a contact hitter his freshman year.  He added more power and drew more walks his sophomore season but at the cost of more K's and a lower BA.  Lean, athletic frame is still filling out so there may be more power in there.   Sky is the limit but needs to work on closing some holes in his swing.

Scouting the Hot Stove League: Starting Pitcher Trade Candidates

We have looked at the starting pitchers who are ranked as top 50 free agents as well as a few others ranked in MLBTR's Honorable Mention list, aka bargain bin.  Let's look at some of MLBTR's SP trade candidates.  The advantage of acquiring a veteran pitcher via trade is they are already under contract, usually for a shorter number of years which allows the acquiring team to avoid the risk of a 5-7 year contract.  In reviewing this list it's important to remember that most of these pitchers probably won't be traded.  We also don't know what their current teams may be asking for on return or what Buster Posey and the Giants may be willing to give up in trades.  We limit our speculation to each pitcher's record, contract status(with MLBTR projected contracts for arbitration-eligible players) and reasons why they may be available. 

Mackenzie Gore LHP, Nationals.  DOB:  2/24/1999.  6' 2", 193 lbs.  $4.7 M, free agent eligible Nov. 2027.  5-15, 4.17, 159.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.  

Long considered an elite pitching prospect.  Tremendous first half of 2025 but had a brutal stretch in July.  Missed some time due to minor injuries.  Starting to get more expensive in arbitration, Nationals are rebuilding, he's likely to go to free agency and would bring back a haul of prospects.  Has pitched more like a #3 SP than ace but young enough to put his elite stuff together and break out.  Likely price would be multiple prospects including two top 100's.  

Joe Ryan RHP, Twins.  DOB:  6/5/1996.  6' 2", 205 lbs.  $5.8 M, free agent eligible Nov. 2027.  13-10, 3.42, 171 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.  

Less stuff and upside than Gore but with better present command.  Twins have not signaled a full rebuild but consensus is they will listen to offers on Ryan and Pablo Lopez RHP.  The Twins would obviously be looking for at least one top 100 prospect in return.  

Mitch Keller RHP, Pirates.  DOB:  5/4/1996.  6' 3", 212 lbs.  Under Contract:  $54.5 M through 2028($18.17 M AAV).  6-15, 4.19, 176.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.  

Keller is a innings-eater #3-4 SP type who would be mainly a salary dump by the Pirates and thus would not cost a top prospect.  The Giants could use a trade for him to clear out some of their OF logjam and/or get the Pirates to eat a small percentage of Keller's contract.

Sonny Gray RHP, Cardinals.  DOB:  11/7/1989.  5' 10", 190 lbs.  14-8, 180.2 IP, 10 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 25 HR.  Under Contract:  1 yr/$$35 M plus a $5 M buyout on a $30 M option for 2027.  Player opt out on the option if it is exercised.  

Giants reportedly had interest in Sonny Gray at the trade deadline.  Was that a Bob Melvin connection?  The one year salary commitment is insane and would eat up most of the Giants Pre-CBT money by itself.  A deal would likely require the Cardinals to pay off part of the salary and/or take a bad contract in return.  Giants don't really have any contracts they are looking to dump right now.  Gray is 36 years old. His K/BB still looks great but his HR rate ballooned over the last 2 seasons limiting his effectiveness. Could adding Brendan Donovan to the trade package make Gray's salary more palatable for the Giants?

Pablo Lopez RHP, Twins.  DOB:  3/7/1996.  6' 4", 225 lbs.  5-4, 2.74, 75.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $43.5 M through 2027($21.75 M AAV).  

Great numbers but two stints on the IL.  Salary is below market value if fully healthy.  Would probably require a top prospect in return.

Freddy Peralta RHP, Brewers.  DOB:  6/4/1996.  6' 0", 198 lbs.  $ 8 M club option for 2026, free agent Nov 2026.  17-6, 2.70, 176.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9.  

Elite SP at a bargain salary but for just one season.  Would take a substantial package in return as BrewCrew not obligated to trade him.

Sandy Alcantara RHP, Marlins.  DOB:  9/7/1995.  6' 5", 200 lbs.  Under Contract:  $17 M through 2026 plus a $2 M buyout on a $21 M team option for 2027).  

Rough comeback year from Tommy John surgery but posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 8 starts.  Marlins might want to try to further rebuild his value and aim for a midseason trade.  Depends on how badly they want to cut payroll for 2026.  

Brady Singer RHP, Reds.  DOB:  8/4/1996.  6' 5", 215 lbs.  Arbitration- $11.9 M.  Free Agent Nov 2026. 14-12, 4.03, 169.2 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9.  

Affordable innings eater who might not require a huge return.  Reds have a relative pitching surplus and are looking to add a hitter or two.  Depending on how the Giants view Heliot Ramos going forward, I could see a 1 for 1 trade for him or the Reds might want to just dump the salary commitment and re-allocate the $$.

Kyle Freeland LHP, Rockies.  DOB:  5/14/1993.  6' 4", 204 lbs.  5-17, 4.98, 162.2 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $16 M through 2026, $17 M vesting player option at 170 IP for 2027.

Affordable innings eater whose numbers are significantly better outside Coors Field.  A trade would probably benefit both Freeland and the Rockies.  Mainly a salary dump so would not require a top prospect in return.  Prickly personality was on display in a benches-clearing incident with the Giants in 2025.  If I'm Buster Posey I'm kicking the tires on Freeland.

Luis Severino RHP, A's.  DOB:  2/20/1994.  6' 2", 2018 lbs.  8-11, 4.54, 162.2 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $42 M through 2027($21 M AAV). Can opt out after 2026.  

Coming of a down season after signing a big contract.  Hated the Sacramento ballpark and had much better numbers on the road.  Buster might want to kick the tires on Sevy too.

Luis Castillo RHP, Mariners.  DOB:  12/12/1992.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  11-8, 3.54, 180.2 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $45.5 M through 2027($22.75 AAV), $25 M vesting option for 2028.

Mariners have a plethora of pitchers and might want to shed salary.  The salary might be a bit rich for the Giants taste but Greg Johnson indicated they may be willing to pay more AAV for a shorter obligation and Castillo is a serious pitcher. He's also a former Giants farmhand who got away.

Tarik Skubal LHP, Tigers.  DOB:  8/18/2020.  6' 3", 240 lbs.  13-6, 2.21, 195.1 IP, 11.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9.  Arbitration $17.8 M.  Free agent Nov 2026.  

The White Whale!  One of the very best pitchers in all of baseball.  Tigers would be looking to get a huge prospect haul in return and the receiving team gets just one season before he hits free agency but what a season it could be!

Comment:  To my eye it looks like Freeland and Severino are the most likely targets for the Giants in this list.  We can dream on Skubal but would Buster part with Eldridge?  Would we want him to? I could also see a package deal for Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan given the Giants prior interest in Gray and need for a player with Donovan's versatility and bat.an

Scouting the Hot Stove League: Bargain Bin Starting Pitchers

All of the starting pitchers listed in our last post came out of Fangraphs and MLBTR's top 50 free agents.  Here are 3 starting pitcher options who fall into MLBTR's Honorable Mention category.  Nod to A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball for coining the phrase, "shopping in the Brebbia Aisle."  

Walker Buehler RHP:  DOB:  7/28/1994.  6' 2", 185 lbs.  10-7, 4.93, 126 IP, 6.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9.  

We all know who Walker Buehler is.  The Red Sox bet on a bounceback season from Buehler after he missed the better part of two seasons after his second Tommy John surgery.  That didn't work out as he got knocked around in the AL East which is not an easy division to pitch in.  He was released in late August and claimed off waivers by the Phillies.  He went 3-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 IP for the Phils.  I am sure he will get a MLB deal in the Hot Stove League but may come at a reduced price on another one year deal to rebuild his value. Can Giants fans stomach seeing Walker Buehler in a Giants uniform?

Adrian Houser RHP:  DOB:  2/2/1993.  6' 3", 242 lbs.  8-5, 3.81, 125 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9.  

Houser signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last offseason and got off to a blazing start with them.  He then struggled after a deadline trade to the Rays and was granted free agency.  He'll almost surely get a MLB deal from some team.  Will they be getting the White Sox version or the Rays version.  His peripheral numbers suggest he's be closer to the Rays version.

Dustin May RHP:  DOB:  9/6/1997.  6' 6", 180 lbs.  7-11, 4.96, 132.1 IP, 8.37 K/9, 3.81 BB/9.  

Another ex-Dodger who had a tough time bouncing back from Tommy John surgery.  I have to say watching him pitch is downright painful with his exaggerated head dip and all.  Makes my back ache just watching it.  If he can be signed to an inexpensive 1 year deal to rebuild his value I would be willing bear the pain to see if he can make good on it.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Minor Leaguers Elect Free Agency

 At least 11 Giants minor leaguers reportedly declared for free agency per Baseballjeff1 on Bluesky:

Sean Hjelle RHP

Sam Huff C

Hunter Bishop OF

Cole Waites RHP

Max Stassi C

Ethan Small LHP

Chris Wright LHP

Juan Mercedes RHP

Miguel Diaz RHP

Helcris Oliverez LHP

Drew Ellis IF

It's a sad but no unexpected ending for Hunter Bishop, a former first round draft pick from the first draft of the Farhan Zaidi era.  He put up some unusual but interesting stats in his first pro season right after the draft but then saw his career derailed by a string of injuries.  Sean Hjelle is a unique talent due to his 6'11" height but poor on-field results and obvious issues in his personal life threw him off track and it's no surprise to see him hit free agency either.  Cole Waites is a hard-throwing reliever who struggled at the MLB level in a small sample and then suffered an injury.  Not much to say about the others than we wish them the best in finding another organization to continue their careers.  It's always possible some of them resign with the Giants.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Make Two Waiver Claims

 Opening Day of the Hot Stove League was barely starting when the Giants made news by acquiring two players on waiver claims:  Reiver Sanmartin LHP and Justin Dean CF.  To make room on the 40-man roster, the Giants designated Mason Black RHP for assignment.  Let's take a closer look at the newest Giants:

Reiver Sanmartin LHP.  DOB:  4/15/1996.  6' 2", 160 lbs.  1 Option.

AAA:  7-2, 3.34, 67.1 IP, 7.35 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 2.88 GB/FB.

MLB:  0-0, 0.00, 1.2 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, 1.50 GB/FB.

Sanmartin kicked around the Reds organization without a lot of success at the MLB level.  The most MLB action he saw was in 2022 when he pitched 57 innings with an ERA of 6.32.  At the minor league level his elite groundball rate makes up for his relatively low K rate.

Justin Dean CF.  DOB:  12/6/1996.  B-R, T-R.  5' 8", 185 lbs.  3 Options.

AAA:  .289/.378/.431, 6 HR, 27 SB, 11.2 BB%, 23.6 K%, 347 PA.

MLB:  .000/.000/.000, 2 PA's.  

If the name sounds familiar, Dean was on the Dodgers postseason roster that just won the World Series.  He is a slap and dash guy who is a plus defender in CF.  Interesting add to a 40 man roster that is already logjammed with multiple fringy MLB outfielders.