Friday, January 10, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #42 Shane Rademacher

Shane Rademacher RHP.  DOB:  1/30/2001.  6'3", 215 lbs.  Non-drafted free agent 2023.

2024(A):  7-2, 4.89, 84.2 IP, 10.84 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 19.4% HR/FB.  

Rademacher got knocked around pretty good in D2 college ball but performed well in the Coastal Plain Summer Collegiate League which is probably why he came to the Giants attention.  He's got pro-sized height and body.  Performed well in A-ball except for a high HR/FB ratio.  Should move up to A+ ball in 2025.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Luke Stevenson

Luke Stevenson C, College.  DOB:  7/22/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6', 1", 200 lbs.  

2024(North Carolina):  .284/.420/.535, 14 HR, 17.8 BB%, 20.4 K%, 269 PA.

Stevenson was highly regarded coming out of HS and didn't do anything to hurt that reputation in his freshman year at NC.  He is a draft eligible sophomore which means he'll have a bit of extra leverage when it comes to signing bonuses.  Typical catcher's body with a strong lower half that looks a bit soft.  Reportedly has upped his conditioning game and is nimble behind he plate if slow afoot and has always had a cannon for an arm.  Strong lefty swing that generates power center and right fields.  Giants fans may feel like they don't need to draft another catcher but that is currently the thinnest position in the organization.  Giants scouting director Michael Holmes knows the Carolina area like the back of his hand. 

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #43 Drew Cavanaugh

Drew Cavanaugh C.  DOB:  1/27/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 17(College).

2024(A):  .230/.364/.333, 2 HR, 14.9 BB%, 29.2 K%, 154 PA. 
2024(AAA):  .300/.400/.300, 11.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, 35 PA.
2024(AFL):  .200/.294/..267, 11.8 BB%, 29.4 K%, 34 PA.

Remember when during the Sabes era it seemed like all the Giants hitting prospects had shiny batting averages but walk rates in the low single digits and that was their fatal flaw?  That changed dramatically during the FZ regime and now we have a bunch of prospects hitting .230 with OBP'over .350.  Is that an improvement?  I've always considered contact to be the #1 skill I look for in a young hitting prospect with plate discipline something they learn in their development.  The problem with that is it seems like K and BB rates lock in early in a player's career and don't budge much.  

Anyway, Cavanaugh is a lefty-hitting catcher with a classic FZ hitting profile.  The Giants apparently thought enough of him to send him to the Arizona Fall League where he was one of the more inexperienced players in the league as it's mostly for players with AA and AAA experience and 35 PA's at AAA last season hardly count.  Will Cavanaugh build on that experience with a strong season at A+ in 2025?

Thursday, January 9, 2025

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #44 Jeremiah Jenkins

Jeremiah Jenkins 1B.  DOB:  5/5/2003.  B-L, T-L.  6' 4", 238 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 14(College- Maine)

2024(College):  .341/.451/.762, 22 HR, 15.6 BB%, 15.1 K%, 225 PA.
2024(Summer):  .326/.484/.630, 3 HR, 22.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, 62 PA.
2024(A):  .296/.367/.546, 2 HR, 8.2 BB%, 36.4 K%, 32.7 K%, 49 PA.

 Classic big lefty slugging 1B.  Excellent BB and K ratios in college.  K rate spiked in A ball but in very small sample.  Tons of pressure on the bat but I think he could be a major sleeper out of the 2024 draft.

Note:  I have bunched several of the 2024 draftees together here because we just don't have enough of a sample size to judge much.  I did rank them in the approximate order of my impression of their probability of sticking around at higher levels.

Scouting the 2025 Draft: Billy Carlson

Billy Carlson SS/RHP, HS.  DOB:  7/29/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 160 lbs.  

Corona CA HS is a hotbed of baseball talent with 3 potential first round talents on this year's team.  Billy Carlson is a true 2-way prospect who projects as a plus defender at SS with some giving him a 70 arm to go with a 60 field tool.  He is also a solid hitter with potential to grow into power.  On the mound he has a 3-pitch mix all in the 50-55 range.  He is committed to Tennessee.  He'll be almost 19 yo by draft day and is it possible someone born in 2006 is too old for the draft? Yikes!

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #45 Zander Darby

Zander Darby IF.  DOB:  11/26/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 3", 197 lbs.  Drafted 2024 Round 12

2023(UCSB):  .288/.383/.465, 7 HR, 8 SB, 11.7 BB%, 15.6 K%, 257 PA.
2023(CCL):  .292/.404/.407, 3 HR, 4 SB, 15.3 BB%, 16.8 K%, 137 PA.
2024(UCSB):  .275/.347/.420, 6 HR, 6 SB, 9.9 BB%, 17.0 K%, 223 PA.
2024(A):  .234/.351/.489, 4 HR, 15.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, 57 PA.

Darby played mostly 3B and 1B in college, 2B for San Jose Giants.  Big for a 2B.  Excellent K and BB ratios in college ball. Bat did not suffer in summer wood bat leagues.  Showed power and OBP but a higher K rate in a small pro sample.  Expect to see him in A+ ball in 2025.  Very interesting player for follow.

Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Blast From The Past: History Of Late Career Hall Of Famers Playing For The Giants

Yesterday's news of the Giants signing Justin Verlander RHP to a 1 year free agent contract brought to mind a fairly long and illustrious history of similar transactions going at least as far back as Warren Spahn LHP in 1965.  So I thought it might be fun and educational to take a look at some of those players stat lines from those experiences.  I can think of at least 4 HOF'ers, Spahn, Steve Carlton LHP, Joe Morgan 2B and Randy Johnson LHP.  I'll add in 3 more from the Hall of Very Good Players, Dusty Baker OF, Reggie Smith 1B and Orel Hershiser RHP.  What makes those 3 names particularly interesting is they all played a major part of their careers with the Dodgers.  Let's get started.

Warren Spahn LHP.  After a 25-year career with the Braves, Spahn's contract was sold to the Mets after the 1964 season.  At the age of 44, Spahn went 4-12 for the Mets in a dual pitcher/pitching coach role.  He was placed on waivers and released by the Mets and signed with the Giants in July.  He remained with the Giants to the end of the season which proved to be his final MLB season.  

1965(Giants):  3-4, 3.39, 71.2 IP, 4.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.

It should be noted that Spahn's career strikeout rate was 4.4, amazingly low for a HOF career.  Although the Giants fell short by 2 games in the pennant race against the Dodgers, Spahn made a significant contribution on a team that didn't have much pitching behind ace Juan Marichal.

Joe Morgan 2B.  Morgan made his HOF reputation as the sparkplug of the Big Red Machine.  He signed a free agent contract with the Giants in 1981 at age 37 after one return season with the Astros.  

1981:  .240/.371/.377, 8 HR, 14 SB, 17.5 BB%, 9.8 K%, 378 PA.
1982:  .289/.400/.438, 14 HR, 24 SB, 15.3 BB%, 10.8 K%, 554 PA.

Morgan's first season with the Giants did not go well and he only appeared in 90 games but his 1982 season is legendary in Giants history.  He was a major contributor to a team that hung with the Dodgers and Braves down to the last 3-game series of the season.  Although the Giants were eliminated, Morgan made himself a Forever Giant by hitting a 3-run HR that eliminated the Dodgers too.  I was living in SoCal at the time but was able to listen to the Dodgers radio broadcast and heard Vin Scully make the crushing HR call on my car radio, a moment I won't forget.

Steve Carlton LHP.  Carlton was released by the Phillies during the 1986 season.  He signed on with the Giants and even broke his silence with the press to give a press conference.  He pitched seven shutout innings and hit a 3-run HR in one game but overall went 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA.  He also recorded his 4000'th career strikeout while wearing a Giants uniform.  He announced his retirement on August 7 but four days later signed on with the White Sox going 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA over the rest of the season.  He finally retired for good at age 44 before the 1989 season.

Randy Johnson LHP.  RJ signed with the Giants for the 2009 season at age 45.  

2009:  8-6, 4.88, 96 IP, 8.06 K/9, 2.91 BB/9.

The ERA is not great but RJ was credited with 8 Wins and ate 96 innings in essentially a half-season of starts.  He also recorded his 300'th career Win while wearing a Giants uniform.  A shoulder injury suffered while diving for an infield dribbler forced him to retire at the end of the season.

Dusty Baker OF.  Baker signed with the Giants as a free agent for the 1984 season at the age of 35.  

1984:  .292/.387/.374, 3 HR, 4 SB, 13.9 BB%, 9.4 K%, 287 PA.  

In limited playing time he hit for a high average and OBP but with little power.  He went on to play two more seasons with the Oakland A's.  Of course he would eventually find his way back to the Giants as a beloved manager.  He currently serves as an advisor in the Giants front office.  

Reggie Smith 1B.  Smith signed with the Giants as a free agent for his final MLB season at age 37.  He was part of the 1982 team along with Joe Morgan who fell just short of a NL West Division championship. 

1982:  .284/.364/.470, 18 HR, 7 SB, 11.6 BB%, 11.6 K%, 398 PA.  

Although he was an OF for most of his illustrious career, Smith played 1B for the Giants and played well accumulating and fWAR of 2.9.

Orel Hershiser RHP.   Hershiser signed with the Giants for the 1998 season at age 40.  

1998:  11-10, 4.41, 202.0 IP, 5.61 K/9, 3.79 BB/9.  

Amazing that Hershiser's career K/9 was just 5.79.  Although the ERA as not great, he made 32 starts and averaged 6.3 IP/Start.  I guess there was a reason they called him Bulldog!

If the experiences of these players are any indication, Justin Verlander will likely not win a Cy Young Award with the Giants but will probably make a significant contribution and possibly leave Giants fans with some fond memories.