I think we've all looked at the Giants starting pitching situation as a glass half empty and we may be missing the glass that's half full. I know I have been quite vocal about the need to add starters in the Hot Stove League and the Giants themselves have said their goal is to add two starting pitchers to give them some pitching depth. Giants GM Zach Minasian held a Zoom call with beat writers and Alex Pavlovic has a quote which has Minasian perhaps backing off that goal a bit: "If we can't develop a couple of those, several of those, shame on us. I believe in our developing system and our pitching group.....getting another starter would be great, but is it a total necessity? I don't think it's a failure if we don't get another starter, but we'll continue to look,"
So who is in this gaggle of young starting pitching Minasian is talking about? Let's do a pitching prospect smackdown. As it stands, the Giants have 5 potential starting pitchers on their 40-man roster who still qualify as prospects, meaning they have pitched less than 50 innings at the MLB level. This does not include young pitchers with limited MLB experience who accumulated more than 50 innings but for various reasons have not established themselves as MLB veterans: Hayden Birdsong RHP, Tristan Beck RHP and Keaton Winn RHP. Everybody is forgetting about J. T. Brubaker RHP who was tendered a contract and is awaiting an arbitration hearing. Let's get to the Prospect Battle Royale:
Trevor McDonald RHP. DOB: 2/26/2001. 6' 2", 201 lbs. 1 Option.
2025(AAA): 9-9, 5.31, 142.1 IP, 9.11 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 2.03 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 1-0, 1.80, 15 IP, 8.40 K/9, 1.20 BB/9, 2.30 GB/FB.
I've been a
Trevor McDonald fanboy ever since the Giants drafted him out of high school in the 11'th round in 2019 but used draft bonus rules to cobble together an $800 K bonus.
McDonald's development trajectory mirrors
Logan Webb's. Both had great sinkers that kept the ball on the ground at dominant levels.
McDonald was electric in three late-season MLB appearances but with a limited pitch mix: 51% curve, 39% Sinker, 6% Change Up. His sinker averaged 93 MPH. For long term success the next step is to follow
Webb in perfecting the changeup and increase it in the mix.
2025(AAA): 4-8, 3.86, 77 IP, 10.52 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 2.45 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 1-3, 4.75, 36 IP, 6.50 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.54 GB/FB, 42% Sinker, 22% Fastball, 20% Slider, 10% Changeup, 6% Curve, 96.4 vFA.
While Trevor McDonald needs to add a pitch to his repertoire, Seymour may need to simplify his. The sinker and 4-seamer are both plus pitches. He probably needs to concentrate on polishing up a third and/or 4'th pitch. Seymour pitched really well in a notoriously tough environment in the PCL. Although his numbers were not as good in a small sample at the MLB level, he finished strong with a couple of scoreless appearances including a final 3-inning stint on 9/24. He might be the most ready of this group to step up into a 5'th SP role.
2025(AAA): 3-2, 3.63, 14.05 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 1.42 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 2-4, 6.37, 11.83 K/9, 5.16 BB/9, 0.97 GB/FB, 39% Slider, 25% 4-seam FB, 14% Curve, 14% Sinker, 10% Change Up, 93.2 vFA.
If K rate is a measure of stuff, Teng had some of the best stuff in the organization in AAA. Although he got knocked around at the MLB level, he threw some impressive looking pitches. He's another case where he may need to simplify his arsenal. His two most effective pitches were the slider and changeup. The sinker was more effective than the 4-seam and the curve got hammered.
Blade Tidwell RHP. DOB: 6/8/2001. 6' 4", 207 lbs. 2 Options.
2025(AAA-Mets): 6-4, 4.10, 79 IP, 9.91 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, 1.07 GB/FB.
2025(AAA-Giants): 0-0, 1.50, 18 IP, 10.30 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 0.86 GB/FB.
2025(MLB-Mets): 1-1, 9.00, 15 IP, 6.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, 0.80 GB/FB, 39% 4-seam FB(95.7), 38% Slider, 18% Sinker.
Was effective in AAA after coming to the Giants in the haul for
Tyler Rogers, but shoulder soreness limited his appearances. Given his previous connection to
Tony Vitello at Tennessee I could see him seriously challenge for a MLB role out of spring training. Probably needs to develop a changeup or split to be a SP at the MLB level.
Carson Whisenhunt LHP. DOB: 10/20/2000. 6' 3", 214 lbs. 3 Options.
2025(AAA): 9-5, 4.43, 107.2 IP, 7.94 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 2-1, 5.01, 23.1 IP, 6/17 K/9, 4.63, 6.17 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, 1.07 GB/FB, 48% Sinker(92.5), 37% Change Up, 14% Slider.
Whiz's K/9 was a bit disappointing even at the AAA level given he reportedly has an
80-grade change up. At the MLB level he simply did not have enough command of his sinking FB to fully set up the change and he has never commanded a breaking ball. So where does that leave him? I have this feeling that if
Dave Righetti was still the Giants pitching coach he would have him ditch the breaking ball and teach him a cutter to give him a bit of horizontal glove-side movement. The other thought is to add a 4-seamer to expand the batter's vertical visual field.
Battle Royale Smackdown: The problem here, like in the outfield, is a lot of intriguing potential but nothing that gives a ton of confidence. I guess I would move
Seymour to the top of this list and make 5'th SP his role to lose in spring training. Of course the other option is to acquire another veteran and make these five the staring rotation in
AAA Sacramento to start the season. And don't forget
Hayden Birdsong,
Keaton Winn and
Tristan Beck. I have to say, though, that
Zach Minasian has a point. If the Giants can't develop at least one league-average SP out of this bunch then they need to completely rethink their player development.
