A massive pitching failure overshadowed some encouraging signs from the lineup in a blow out loss to the Mets. Key Lines:
Willy Adames SS- 1 for 5, HR(17), R, 2 RBI. BA= .235. At this point, Adames is having an approximately average year for him. 2.5 fWAR at 2/3 point in the season projects to 3.7 fWAR.
Dominic Smith 1B- 1 for 4, HR(3), R, 2 RBI. BA= .272. Smith has played well in limited action. 0.4 fWAR in 114 PA which projects to 2.1 over 600 PA's. I feel like he could have the equivalent of a YtY career but is that good enough? Probably not for the positions he plays.
Casey Schmitt 2B- 2 for 4, 2B, R. BA= .248. Casey showed excellent pitch selection and bat control on the oppo-field double.
Jung Hoo Lee CF- 2 for 3, 2B, HBP, R. BA= .251. .280/.400/.400 over his last 7 games.
Grant McCray RF- 2 for 4, 3B, R, RBI. BA= .333. The single was a laser beam off the RF wall that came straight back to Juan Soto who held McCray to a single but Jung Hoo Lee scored all the way from 1B. The triple was a liner into the RF corner and McCray used his blazing speed to leg out a triple. What a difference a day makes! McCray has a sweet looking stroke.
Kai-Wei Teng RHP- 3.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 3 BB 4 K's. ERA= 13.50. Not a great line by any stretch but Teng appeared a bit overamped at the start as he went HBP, Walk to the first two batters. He struck out Juan Soto on a beautiful split change but then gave up the bomb to Pete Alonso. No shame in that. Alonso hits HR's off good and great pitchers too. The problem was the baserunners. Maybe they aren't there if it wasn't for the butterflies. Teng looked good in innings 2 and 3, but allowed 2 of the first 3 batters in the 4'th inning to reach base. He was at 67 pitches and Melvin brought in Matt Gage LHP who gave up consecutive singles to score both of the inherited runs. Teng showed a live mid-90's tailing FB, a sharp down-breaking curve and a fading split change which were effective when he commanded them. He's worth at least another look or two.
Spencer Bivens RHP- 1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 0 K. ERA= 4.80. Poor Spencer Bivens looks like he's out of gas to me. He needs an IL stint for R&R or something but he's getting pummeled almost every time out.
Tristan Beck RHP took more pummeling over the final two innings and had to wear it to preserve the rest of the pitching staff.
Carson Whisenhunt LHP tries to get the rookie jitters out in game that starts at 10:40 AM PDT tomorrow against Frankie Montas RHP who comes in with a 5.46 ERA.
Bivens and Beck for sure should’ve been designated for assignment over Hjelle. Giants might end up regretting that. Hjelle hasn’t had much opportunity this season but hasn’t done too well when he’s pitched on the big league club while having a dominating year on AAA. He was quality last season. He’s always showed great promise in the minors, having great control while capable of getting strike outs. He’s always been a guy that gets hit hard sometimes but over the long term he always goes through long period stretches of success that leads to good seasons. I think the personal issues might have played a role in his big league performance and why they chose to designate him. Bivens probably won’t even be on the team by the end of next season, and honestly same with Beck.
ReplyDeleteThis might be one of the oddest takes I've ever read.
DeleteOf course Teng is going to get a few more starts. If all goes well they will turn back to Birdsong but he’s only had one AAA start so they will want to give him a few more starts to prove he’s cleaned up the control.
ReplyDeleteBirdsong didn't look so hot in today's Sacramento game against Albuquerque, admittedly in an extreme hitter friendly environment.
DeleteThis was a very encouraging game except for the score and pitching. I agree, Bivens is just pooped out. Beck sure didn’t have close to his best stuff, either. I’d like to see Teng once more, but he sure seems to battle control problems on a too regular basis.
ReplyDeleteBivens needs to be shut down for at least two weeks, I think Erik Miller is nearing a return so you can just swap the two.
ReplyDeleteBoth Adames and Chapman seem to be approaching average years for them , which is not good enough if a team wants to compete for the POs next year...Both need to be better..Same holds for Devers of course and a lot of the team, but leaders must lead by example not by just being good guys or getting excited
ReplyDeleteA tough assignment for Teng (didn't he bomb out in his 1st start last year?) as it was for WHIZ earlier in the week. Hope they feel more comfortable and improve in their next starts. The young pitchers will have it tough for the Giants the rest of the year. That's one problem of playing out the string and auditioning young pitchers on a bad team going against a lot of good and improved teams figthing for the POs. A little easier on the hitters I would think.
SteveVA
It's kind of irrational to think a veteran player(s) signed to a long term contract has to perform better than their career averages for the team to compete. So you are basically saying Buster made huge mistakes in signing Chapman, Adames and trading for Devers. It actually seems pretty clear to me that if those 3 play to their career averages and have a decent supporting cast around them, the team will be a contender.
DeleteAverages move around.
DeleteOnce established after several years, they go up after a good year and down after a bad year.
Normally, averages trend down due to aging, unless your name is Barry Bonds.
Yes I understand that but when you sign an established free agent who is, say, in their late 20's and already into the prime of their career, you don't sign them with the expectation that they are going to produce above their established production averages. That would be an irrational signing and the POBO doing the signing is incompetent. If a player has had a down year or two due to some identifiable cause which is now removed or corrected it may be reasonable to expect them to bounce back to their previous average but not above. It also may be reasonable to expect a younger player who is still learning the game to perform better in the future due to increased experience and improved skills as well as expecting an older player's performance to decline due to have declining tools.
DeleteHey Doc, I don't think it's irrational to think a team will have a tough time making the POs with their cleanup hitter hitting about .232 (his average over the last six years and also this Year) almost every year..so yeah, maybe Buster did make a mistake with Chapman.. And ditto with Adames hitting .237 (his average over the last 4 years and this year). I wasn't lumping Devers (or didn't mean to--unclear writing on my part) in with those on hitting his normal being bad thing. But only that he needs to hit much better (which has been his normal) than he has so far with the Giants. And he will..I still like that trade. Perhaps Devers, and maybe Eldrdige along with another Bat they have to obtain could make the "normal" years from Adames and Chapman OK on a better team.
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Chapman's average Career average fWAR is 4.1. He is at 3.1 this year with 2 months to go. He out-earned his salary last year and is on track to do it again this year. Adames career average fWAR is 3.4. He is at 2.6 with 2 months to go. He projects to earn or slightly out-earn is salary. BTW, Brandon Crawford only exceeded 3.0 fWAR 3 times in his career, none during the 2012 and 2014 championship years. Jung Hoo Lee is on FZ and we don't have enough of a sample to get a career average. His AAV is $18.8 M. He currently sits at 1.4 fWAR with 2 months to go. If he continues is improved post AS Break approach he might come close to earning his salary but might come in a bit under. Devers career average fWAR is 4.7. He is currently at 1.9 with 2 months to go. With a great two months he might get to 4.0 which would approximately earn his salary but so far he is the one out of Buster's Big Three who has underperformed. So, Chapman and Adames are performing up to expectations and Devers probably will in time. I don't know where you think Buster would find better performers at 3B and SS than Adames and Chapman. And yes, it is irrational to think free agents are going to outperform their career averages. And yes, if Chapman, Adames and Devers perform up to theirs and have a decent supporting cast this team is competitive.
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