It's long been said the GM meetings are for laying the groundwork for deals which are consummated at the Winter Meetings. That dynamic increasingly seems to be pushed back to the Winter Meetings for groundwork which are completed in the following days or weeks. Three more significant deals got done yesterday including two free agent signings and a trade. These were deals I might have some fan envy over. Let's break it down:
The Cardinals signed Dustin May RHP to a 1 yr contract with a mutual option for 2027. Terms of the contract are reported at this time.
Dustin May RHP. DOB: 9/6/1997. 6' 6", 180 lbs.
2025(Dodgers/Red Sox): 7-11, 4.96, 132.1 IP, 8.37 K/9, 3.81 BB/9, 1.12 GB/FB.
Justin Turner's talented, much younger, evil twin dealt with a series of injuries through his career, including two Tommy John surgeries and an esophageal tear(yikes!). His 132 innings last season were the most of his career but he ended the season on the IL with ulnar neuritis and his velocity was down to 95 MPH from a high of 99 in 2020. I thought May might be an interesting bounce back candidate on a one year deal but after reviewing the details of his injury history, I can see why the Giants took a pass on him as ulnar neuritis does not sound totally unrelated to his previous two TJ surgeries.
The Tigers signed Kenley Jansen RHP to a 1 yr/$11 M contract, also with a club option for 2027.
Kenley Jansen RHP. DOB: 9/30/1987. 6' 5", 265 lbs.
2025(Angels): 5-4, 2.59, 59 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 29 Saves.
Jansen may be 38 yo and may not be the pitcher he once was but he is coming of a fine season in which he was charged with just one Blown Save, although he also recorded 4 Losses in which he presumably entered at tie game and lost. $11 M for just one season seems like a pretty darn reasonable price for that kind of veteran savvy in the Closer role. And where was Buster Posey today? Oh here! We found him hanging out in the Brebbia Aisle. Buster seems quite determined to not pay more than the league minimum for his Closer next season.
Trade: The Brewers sent Isaac Collins OF and Nick Mears RHP to the Royals for Angel Zerpa LHP.
Royals Get:
Isaac Collins OF. DOB: 7/22/1997. B-S, T-R. 5' 8", 188 lbs. Pre-arbitration(eligible 2028).
2025(Brewers): .263/.368/.411, 9 HR, 16 SB, 12.9 BB%, 21.1 K%, 441 PA, 2.6 fWAR.
The Brewers selected Collins in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft after the 2022 season. He made his MLB debut in 2023 and had a fine 2025 season for the Brewers.
Nick Mears RHP. DOB: 10/7/1996. 6' 3", 217 lbs. Arbitration eligible. Free agent 2028. 0 Options.
2025(Brewers): 5-3, 3.49, 56.2 IP, 7.31 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 1 Save.
Middle relief arm whose decent ERA may or may not be repeatable depending on what predictive metric you use.
Brewers Get:
Angel Zerpa LHP. DOB: 9/27/1999. 6' 0", 220 lbs. Arbitration Eligible(Free Agent 2029). 1 Option.
2025(Royals): 5-2, 4.18, 64.2 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 2.68 GB/FB.
Similar profile as Mears but a lefty and groundball-dominant which may be perceived as more valuable.
Comment: Wow! I must be missing something here because this looks like a fleecing by the Royals. Even if he's stuck in LF, Collins looks like he could have been an upgrade on Heliot Ramos in LF but then what do the Giants do with Ramos? Those kinds of sequential moves/trades are what separates the creative GM's from the ones who go by the book.
And this one really hurts. Merrill Kelly agrees to extend his career with the D'Backs for 2 yr/$40 M. Kelly seems like the prototype of what the Giants need to fill out their starting rotation: A veteran who takes the ball every 5 games, keeps you in the game and is willing to take a shorter term contract.
Merrill Kelly RHP. DOB: 10/14/1988. 6' 2", 202 lbs.
2025(D'Backs): 12-9, 3.52, 184 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 1.14 GB/FB.
Seemed like a perfect fit for the Giants 2026 rotation. Maybe Buster kicked the tires and found out Kelly was looking to resign with the snakes? Maybe he thinks he can find comparable value more in the 1 yr/$15 M range like Justin Verlander last season?
Come on Buster! You can't fill all the holes in the Brebbia Aisle!
I have no interest in Brendan Donovan. He is like a boring version of Joe Panik. I hope they swing a lot higher for some .270 hitter. He is. It worth Kilen or Whisenhunt. Just my 2 cents
ReplyDeleteIt's early in the off-season, so I have been patient because nd waaiting for the off-seaso nto come to the Giants and for Posey to get busy.....That said, Posey has A LOT of work to do... The Giants desperately need 2 SP, at least 2 RP, and a major OF and maybe 2B ...But that is the least of MY concerns given that they have Schmidt and Koss...But, what do i know, the Giants seem connected to trading for Marte and/or Donovan.....I think the Giants will land the pitchers just not sure of the quality..The OF REALLY BOTHERS me....Ramos and Lee are decent/average nothing more, with questions about Lee still lingering...The candidates for the 3rd-5th OF spot are pretty much waiver wire stuff.......Posey will make a major mistake if he doesn't address this..Oh wait, I forgot..they have their mascot Drew Gilbert!.........I also think they should trade ELDRIDGE for MAJOR help elsewhere ..I love him but with the DEVERS trade he really doesn't have a home in the Giants lineup for the next 7 years UNLESS DEVERS is happy being a full time DH for the rest of his career and i don't see that
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Who is the long term DH to fill the middle of the order, if Eldritch is shipped off??
DeleteI'll turn the question around and ask what makes you think Eldridge is that long term DH/middle order bat if he stays?
DeleteI mean, only that he's a super prospect who shrugged off AA-pitching at 20yo and appears to be an offensive phenom with the most power of any prospect in my memory to come from the Giants system...
DeleteThat's how I'm looking at it anyways. Yeah we can get things by trading him, but his chances of reaching his potential are so high - The rarity of a kid flying through the minors at 20 is indicative of his special ceiling and abilities. I wouldn't trade that, if I were a team who was thirsty for power hitters.
Two 1B/DH's who both hit left handed is not ideal plus it pretty much shuts out other hitters from rotating through the DH slot. On the other hand, if Eldridge is the 40 HR threat he appears to be there is Chapman and Adames to balance out those two lefty bats. Eldridge still needs to prove he can control his strike zone at the MLB level.
DeleteWhat Doc said in his last post is what i was getting at..I like Devers and the price that was paid to get him...and i love Eldridge as a prospect...but it is not optimum roster management to have both (once Eldridge is full time) on the roster...You don't play a 21-22 year old kid as full time DH and Devers does like to play the field and that may be when you get the best out of him..If you can get major help by dealing Eldridge when his value is high (right now) i say you think long and hard about it....All that said, in either event, they need a RF/bat nd maybe even a DH type.....The next month should be interesting..
DeleteSteveVA
@SteveVA Agree. It might be good to let the "problem" of who to trade simmer for a year. That would provide a better view of Eldridge's future potential and time to see if Devers is a long-term fit at first or better as a DH, or if there's a way to keep both. Both would certainly have solid value at this time next year.
DeleteCody Bellinger would be a great fit for RF at our park with some power to dream on. Plus he would cost any prospects or draft pick loss.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Buster plans to find a third, fourth, and fifth OF from the 8-10 candidates SF has and is OK with C and 2B, so he can concentrate on SP and RP from the Brebbia Aisle...
ReplyDeleteI hope not, because that will doom the team to 4th place..Just my opinion
DeleteSteveVA
I agree, they need to do more than that.
DeleteThey need at least an established #3 SP and another bat they can count on. That will cost some $$$
DeleteBuster will probably sign Verlander and Scherzer.
DeleteRosterResource says they have $52 Mil (+) to the first luxury tax threshold, so, with 25M for the SPs, they still have $27 Mil to bolster RF and/or 2B unless they improve the pen.
OTOH, the way things are going, their best post season opportunity will be to catch LA sleeping.
We're all speculating of course, but this has been a quiet Hot Stove for the Giants so far. Would you say the FA market has been fair, overpriced, or underpriced for pitching this season? I presume the looming work stoppage may also temper the appetite of the front office to take on big salaries. The FA's all look great on paper until reality sets in and we get to see what they truly deliver.
ReplyDeleteThe market seems overpriced to me but if I remember right, most of the activity is concentrated around a handful of aggressive teams. It will be interesting to see if the market cools off after those teams are set. My other comment is that teams seem to be overpaying for 'bargains" which means they aren't actually bargains.
DeleteRosenthal reported that a west coast team offered Kelly 50M over 3 years but he wanted to remain a snake.
ReplyDeleteGoogle A.I. says: "...a West Coast team, widely speculated to be the Giants, offered Merrill Kelly a three-year deal worth more than $50 million before he chose to re-sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks..."
DeleteIf it was a swing and a miss for Buster, it was a very healthy swing but destined to fail as Kelly took more than Fangraphs/RosterResource suggested.
Well. it was a healthy swing and miss on Corbin Burnes last year and that worked out well!
DeleteBut they better swing and not miss on an OF! Itboggles my mind that I read around and see that writers/bloggers/people are happy with an OF of Ramos/Lee/Wiemer and other assorted trash like Gilber, Dean, Encarnacion or even Matos/McCray/Meckler. I find it horrific
SteveVA
It is quite a motley bunch but we should not refer to people as trash.
DeleteAt $40MM, Kelly has received the 8th largest contract (tied with Polanco) signed so far this year.
ReplyDeleteForever Giant Tyler Rogers has the 10th largest thus far at $36MM.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker