There were three significant free agent signings as the Winter Meetings wound down and folks headed for home. The biggest news is Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles for 5 yr/$150 M. Robert Suarez signed with the Braves for 3 yr/$45 M and the Braves, who have been very active so far, also signed Mike Yastrzemski to a 2 yr/$23 M contract. Let's break it all down:
Pete Alonso 1B/DH. DOB: 12/7/1994. B-R, T-R. 6' 3", 245 lbs. 5 yr/$ 150 M.
2025(Mets): .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 8.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 709 PA, 3.4 bWAR.
Alonso is one of the elite power hitters in MLB and is coming off an excellent campaign. Alonso tends to not get the respect he deserves because his WAR gets suppressed by positional factors and subpar defense. But that power looks good in any lineup even if he has to DH full time. Orioles get a big boost to their lineup and the Mets lose production they probably cannot replace unless they re-allocate the resources and go after Kyle Tucker who is going to cost a whole lot more.
Robert Suarez RHP. DOB: 3/1/1991. 6' 2", 210 lbs. 3 yr/$45 M.
2025(Padres): 4-6, 2.97, 69.2 IP, 9.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 40 Saves.
Suarez hasn't been in the league a long time but he did not make his first MLB appearance until age 31. The past two seasons established him as one of the league's elite closers. 3 years may seems like a long contract for a guy entering his age 35 season but as a lifelong reliever(he pitched several seasons in Japan), he has a relatively low-mileage arm. He'll now compete for or share the Closer role with Raisel Iglesias RHP. When the Braves have the lead they shorten the game to 7 innings. That can win a lot of games. Smart deal for the Braves.
Mike Yastrzemski OF. DOB: 8/23/1990. B- L, T- L. 5' 11", 180 lbs. 2 yr/$23 M($4 M buyout of $7 M for third season).
2025(Giants/Royals): .233/.333/403, 17 HR, 7 SB, 12.9 BB%, 19.4 K%, 558 PA.
While those numbers don't looks too bad, YtY had a power surge after the trade(7 HR in the month of August) that boosted his SLG% considerably. He is going to a much friendlier ballpark for hitters so he may continue to put up better than decent number for ATL. Just remember he really had only two good months in 2025, April with the Giants and August after the trade. I am happy for YtY that he will get enough money from the game to set him up for life. I am also happy the Giants are not the ones paying him for the next 2+ years.
Comment: I think Rafael Devers is a better fit for the Giants than Pete Alonso in essentially the same role because of Devers lefty bat to balance out an otherwise righty lineup and they probably don't have the budget for both. After watching so many games get pissed away from Blown Saves last year, Robert Suarez sure looks like a difference maker in the Closer role and not at an unreasonable price. SP is probably a higher priority than Closer but it remains to be seen if and how Buster chooses to allocate his resources. I just hope he doesn't get to the end of next season and realize not doing enough with the bullpen was the difference between making the postseason and not. Much as I like YtY and appreciate what he gave the Giants it's time to move on. Buster needs to either sort out the outfield mess and find his RF in there somewhere or else convince ownership to give him the funding for a serious upgrade.
It appears to me, based on what Alex Pavlovic and other beat writers are reporting and the Giants lack of activity in the market so far, that Buster is waiting for the market to come to him. I think that strategy might work. The market is off to a slower start than last season with a small number of aggressive teams and more teams crying poor mouth while saying they expect to cut payroll or at least not increase it. That could leave some nice deals as the Hot Stove League enters the stretch run but don't be surprised if it runs into the start of spring training. The one demographic it might not work with is relief pitching in general and Closer in particular as that market has been the most active.
In my humble opinion, age is a huge factor on all three of these signings. Out of those three signings, the only one that looks reasonable for the Giants is Robert Suarez, although he is 35. . Like you said, Alonzo would duplicate Devers' role and will be 36 when the contract runs out. YTY best year for power was when he hit 25 HRs in 2021 when he was 30 YO. Classic case of a guy who developed late and faded early. Like you said, I am happy for him with the contract he got. Has the view on aging changed? It used to be that players peaked in their late 20s. The average age for MLB players is roughly the same over last decade (around 28-29 YO-source ChatGPT). Looks to me that teams with money to spend are paying more for older players with track records. BTW, the Dodgers had the oldest opening day lineup in 2025 at 31.5 YO.
ReplyDeleteShould we hope that Buster signs a closer (at what cost?) or will he cobble one together and hope to not replay the Past which he saw first hand from behind the plate in the 9th inning on October 11, 2016...
ReplyDeleteI'll say if Buster can find a Closer on the cheap, I will be impressed.
DeleteWould it be worth "sacrificing" one of the young starters and tell him to forget about going 5. What would it look like if you knew you were only going one? Would you like to be with the big club now or in three years? There is a lot of arm strength there and not all of it is ready for the show as a starter. And why waste all those bullets in Sacramento? Maybe Buster already has someone in mind (Birdsong...)
DeleteWhen the Dodgers made Roki a closer in the WS no less I was convinced. It isn’t an original idea to turn a young starter into a closer but not as common these days. Joe Nathan is maybe my favorite example but there are plenty more. Nathan was so good at it he never looked back! Birdsong has my vote and if Posey is in agreement I will feel a little smarter about all the wild baseball takes I have swimming around in my head!!!
DeleteFormer the Giants’ general manager Scott Harris nabs former Giants prospect Cole Waites on minor-league deal.
ReplyDeleteFlashback to 2022: so much promise, wasn't he the first of the 2019 draft class to make a major league appearance?
The Giants have 30-plus Spring Training games of which several are split squad providing Vitello 29 or 30 games to manage in the majors – it will be Spring Training for him, too!
ReplyDeleteThey say you can learn something every day in baseball, but ST should provide him ample opportunities to appreciate the difference, wouldn't you think?
With so many opportunities (300 +/- pitches) to make a mistakes in a game, every normal person will make some, you just hope it's not in the bottom of the 9th and it breaks a tie against you.
Vitello's been around a long time: he should do well with the transition and maybe open a door for others.
I have this feeling that Tony V is just smarter and better at leading men than most people who try. Does that mean he can get this team to win games… yes I’m pretty sure it will. Baseball players are human beings and their performances are always going to be influenced by their leadership and I have no doubt he is going to get every single drop of ability and talent from this team. The best example of what I mean is probably Jim Harbaugh and what he did when he took over the Niners. Tony V may or may not be as crazy as Harbaugh but I have a strong feeling he will have a similar influence over his troops. Posey is going to look like a damn genius when the dust settles.
ReplyDeleteWell, I don't know. That's all a pretty tall order for the guy. He does seem to be an engaging, people-oriented person who builds and maintains strong connections that last beyond the window he works with them. I kind of feel sorry for him because every time he has to face the press he gets endless questions asked in countless ways about how on Earth he thinks he can manage a major league baseball team when he's never played or coached professionally. I mean, it's a fairly simple game, really! I got a kick out of how he low-key dissed the Winter Meetings with some self-deprecating humor, "I'm still trying to figure out why we are here!" LOL!
DeleteTyler Rogers has a new home and a good contract!
ReplyDeleteThe Blue Jays are in agreement on a three-year, $37MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal includes an $11MM vesting option for the 2029 season.
For the Giants it's good news: they will only see him for a maximum of 3 games, July 6-8 at Oracle, at least until the World Series...
Like YtY, I am very happy Tyler Rogers is now set for life. I am also happy the Giants are not the ones paying him that contract.
DeleteThe reliever market is running out of supply fast.
DeleteThey needed to make a move for an established, very good, reliable reliever. They don't have much time left, Both Rogers and Suarez would have been very good gets for this team, and Suarez at an agreeably reasonable price.
ReplyDeleteA closer is 100% confident he can burn through mediocre hitters and typically get by the better ones too. Birdsong as much as I love the prospect and his stuff and attitude, he needs to find himself before he takes over the closer role. Can't be missing the strike zone with a 1 run lead in the 9th.
Really excited about the 4th pick. This seems like a very strong year for the top 5 picks!
I agree on Suarez. The Giants tried Rogers at Closer several times and he just wasn't up to the role. Rogers is a very good 6, 7, 8 innings guy and capable of getting more than 3 outs but wasn't quite there in the Closer role.
DeleteLots of positive comments about Tony V. I feel he will do fine managing the younger players. Call me cynical, but I think that managing the veteran players will be different. Players that are due to receive that big contract that comes to them provided they have the numbers to support said contract. Example: For batters, the numbers don't show when you advance a runner over by going the opposite way for an out. It will be interesting to see how Tony V manages over the course of the season. Hopefully, guys like Willy Adames and Matt Chapman will help lead the team. I am hopeful, but not ready for the exuberance yet.
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