This trade seems to be more of a contract trade than a player trade although it makes some sense as a player challenge trade too Yesterday, the Rangers sent Marcus Semien 2B and his 3 yr/$72 M remaining contract to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo OF and the remaining 5 yr/$101.5 M of his contract. Let's break it down into components:
Mets take:
Marcus Semien 2B. DOB: 9/17/1990. B-R, T-R. 6' 0", 195 lbs. Contract: 7 yr/$175 M, now 3 yr/$72 M, $24 M AAV.
2025: .230/.305/.364, 15 HR, 11 SB, 9.4 BB%, 17.4 K%, 127 PA, 2.1 fWAR.
Fangraphs still rates Semien as a plus defender but the bat has gone relatively cold over the past two seasons and the 3 yr sequence of this fWAR value is 6.5, 4.3, 2.1. Note that part of his down season was injury related and his Steamer projection for 2026 is a small rebound to 3.1 fWAR which is valued close to his AAV.
Rangers Get:
Brandon Nimmo OF. DOB: 3/27/1993. B-L, T-R. 6' 2", 206 lbs. Contract: 8 yr/$162 M, now 5 yr/$101.5 M, $19.25 M AAV(Rangers get $5 M from Mets to partially offset the contract difference).
2025: .262/.324/.436, 25 HR, 13 SB, 7.7 BB%, 21.6 K%, 587 PA, 3.0 fWAR.
Nimmo is not a CF anymore but he is still a good fielder in LF. His fWAR value peaked at 5.5 in 2022 then dropped to 4.2, 2.8, 3.0. FWIW his Steamer projection for 2026 is 2.5 fWAR.
There are some convoluted reasons why this trade helps balance both rosters. Beyond that, the Mets are taking on a higher AAV for a shorter duration while the Rangers lower their AAV but take on a longer commitment. Both players will be the same age(38) at the end of their respective contracts. The trade appears to be even although I can see Semien bouncing back from his injury more easily than Nimmo changing his career trajectory.
Carson Ragsdale was non-tendered Friday and is now a free agent.
ReplyDeleteAgain.
I am getting posts on my Facebook account that are labeled "Breaking!"
ReplyDeleteSome of the posts are obviously smoke. Names like Mike Trout and Kyle Tucker are a reach.
1) "The Giants are pursuing Bo Bichette." Pursuing and signing are obviously two different things, but are they actually pursuing Bichette?
2)"The Giants are on the verge of signing Tatsu Imai, one of the premier Japanese pitchers coming over to the US this year." On the verge?
3) The Giants have hired Frank Anderson, pitching coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. Did this happen? I haven't seen a confirmation.
There are always a lot BS speculation stories with clickbait titles that make it sound like it's a done deal until you read the fine print and find out it's someone who doesn't know any more than you or I saying it might be a fit. You don't and won't get any of that BS from When The Giants Come To Town.
DeleteSince Posey seems unpredictable, you can dream on signing Tucker or Bichette or Valdez, and it could happen, but a #3 SP down the way (it's pretty deep), a couple Brebbia Aisle RPs, and probably an 11th OFer, is more likely.
DeleteOTOH, a shock-wave trade is believable, too.
Buster does seem to like to lay in the weeds then shock everyone when he pounces.
DeleteRegarding #3, according to Baseball America article by Jacob Rudner published 11/19/25 Frank Anderson was hired by the Giants to an unnamed pitching role. He's. Been well known in college baseball as a top pitching developer. His son is LHP Brett Anderson, not sure if he's still pitching in MLB. Interesting hire, hope he can help the Giants develop their young pitchers, like Hayden Birdsong.
DeleteAs a National League fan, I am happy to see Nimmo (political reasons)go to the AL and Semien come over to the NL.
ReplyDeleteSonny Gray now off the market (to BoSox). I had thought a trade for JHL might have worked.
ReplyDeleteSonny Gray's ship probably sailed away from the Giants when Bob Melvin was fired. He is reliable for innings, which the Giants need, but otherwise his performance tailed off considerably the last two seasons.
DeleteAlthough his ERA rose by a run each of the last 2 seasons, his advanced stats like FIP and xFIP have remained strong.
Delete...but it's probably more than bad BABIP luck as it comes with a higher FB rate, higher hard hit rate and higher HR/FB ratios.
DeleteSonny Gray is due $31 million for 2026 and a $10 million buyout for 2027. Boston gave up two mid grade prospects for Gray which means that St. Louis really wanted to salary dump. $41 million obligation for a declining pitcher is not a good idea so it’s best not to look at Gray as a lost opportunity.
ReplyDeleteCardinals are paying off $20 M of the $41 M so the BoSox are only on the hook for $21 M.
DeleteBoSox get Gray for 1 year @ $21M and gave up a youngish rotation piece (pre-arb RHP Richard Fits, 26 yo) and a "proverbial long-term moonshot" 22 yo LHP Brandon Clarke.
DeleteThe Red Sox have the option to pay Gray $30 million to pitch in 2027 or if they decline the option, they will owe Gray a $5 million buyout.
Fits is a Free Agent in 2032.
Depending on whether the Red Sox want to pay Gray $30M for 2027 (if there is a 2027), they can buy him out so their cost is $5M more than $21M
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